Can't remember where Sked resides in the current pantheon of EUrophobic Saints, but isn't the standard patter that it's the EU not Europe that's the problem? Perhaps Skeddy's just being honest.
Both those for and against the EU frequently conflate the terms EU and Europe as convenient.
It is convenient shorthand. On 1 November the only countries in Europe not in the EU, or applying for membership, or in the Single Market via EEA are UK, Belarus and Russia.
You've made it seem less than convenient shorthand, since it is not convenient shorthand for 'in the EU or wanting to be in the EU' since you've included the Single Market lot too.
I grant it is not something I have ever had to do, but surely it cannot be hard to find good advice on how to register these things correctly, in which case the 'being stupid' defence becomes a lot less valid.
Could’ve fooled me. To the extent Corbyn has a plan, it’s to allow Brexit to happen. A VoNC risks that and he will never table one.
He's tabled one already. Didn't work.
Are you of the view that other failed attempts would be a tactical mistake? I don't really see the harm myself - it shows he is trying to stop a no deal government, puts other parties that oppose no deal and the Tory remainiac rebels on the spot to see how often they are going to reject one way of stopping no deal - backing a Corbyn premiership, however temporarily.
And Boris is like 'Are you mad, I might not be in office in a year?!'
While Trump will be in the midst of a bitterly fought Presidential election, with a Democrat controlled House which has to approve any deal and may be disinclined to offer him a "win".
And Boris is like 'Are you mad, I might not be in office in a year?!'
While Trump will be in the midst of a bitterly fought Presidential election, with a Democrat controlled House which has to approve any deal and may be disinclined to offer him a "win".
Come now, it will not be bitter at all, just a dignified contest between two opponents respectful of the other.
and Johnson is odds-on. This seems to me an obvious lay - out of the dozens of Cabinet members, there is almost bound to be one who resigns over something or other befoie Boris gives up.
I grant it is not something I have ever had to do, but surely it cannot be hard to find good advice on how to register these things correctly, in which case the 'being stupid' defence becomes a lot less valid.
If the report is accurate, it is very difficult to see how this was not deliberate. Though naturally that does not rule out his being utterly stupid into the bargain.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
Poor old Phil Hammond - he isn’t enjoying being irrelevant.
He'll only be irrelevant if and when he is proved wrong.
He’s as relevant as Heseltine.
Self evidently not true as Hammond has a vote in the Commons and therefore at least the potential to scupper things. Whether he is correct in his assessment or not is one thing, but denying he is a relevant player in all this is just plain nonsense -No.10 is obviously worried about the Commons messing things up, hence wargaming scenarios where they can bypass them. In that situation no matter how wrong Hammond might be, what he does is not just relevant but potentially crucial.
I will never understand the way of thinking that just because someone is wrong, perhaps very wrong, and disliked, perhaps very disliked, therefore they are not 'relevant'. They can still be very involved in a developing situation, even as a wrecker or delayer.
Are you of the view that other failed attempts would be a tactical mistake? I don't really see the harm myself - it shows he is trying to stop a no deal government, puts other parties that oppose no deal and the Tory remainiac rebels on the spot to see how often they are going to reject one way of stopping no deal - backing a Corbyn premiership, however temporarily.
Yes, I think he needs to try again, but the threat of doing it is a more effective weapon than trying and failing by 20 votes. The attempt to seize the Parliamentary agenda will come soon after September 3 and that probably needs to happen first. Lots of Remainer Tories would rather use Parliamentary means to stop No Deal than actually vote their government out. It's only if it becomes clear that the course of events is irrevocably controlled by the Government that people will take seriously the idea that "in that case, we need to change the Government before they do something mad".
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
I grant it is not something I have ever had to do, but surely it cannot be hard to find good advice on how to register these things correctly, in which case the 'being stupid' defence becomes a lot less valid.
If the report is accurate, it is very difficult to see how this was not deliberate. Though naturally that does not rule out his being utterly stupid into the bargain.
Quite, I was just anticipating the usual 'defence' of similar though perhaps less serious 'errors', when they go on about confusing procedures and forgetfulness and the like, which is no defence at all in my book. This one looks another level, it will be interesting to see if they are right.
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
So when all these pensioners show up are they going to be hopping mad at the lying brexiters who messed up their lives, or are they going to boost Con and BXP because people old people gonna old person
Just as @NickP accurately foretold many moons ago re the number of likely Labour rebels, so will there likely only be a handful of Cons rebels. Many who disagree with policy will nevertheless support the government.
The party system is such that ensuring one's own party remains in power will usually always be better than the alternative.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
First term incumbency hardly helped the 20 SNP MPs who lost their seats at GE17
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Boris may be pro Brexit but he is hardly a Putin style nationalist.
The UK also has a Gini co efficient of 32% compared to 42% for Russia
Could’ve fooled me. To the extent Corbyn has a plan, it’s to allow Brexit to happen. A VoNC risks that and he will never table one.
I agree that Corbyn and his inner circle need and want Brexit.
But they also, at this point, need to look like they tried to stop it, which might well actually end up stopping it. Competing desires and needs.
Rather wish the Cricket didn't stop for lunch now, just as the two guys are set. But if everyone else scores their average, England win - piece of cake, right? Hmm.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
The LDs are too far back now I think there, though they might pick up Fife North East from the SNP.
I think the Liberals are the only Unionist party with a chance of gaining SNP seats at the moment rather thsn losing some to the Nationalists
Clarke is in the red column for me in the next PM market. Corbyn is wrong about most things, but on getting next dibs to be PM I think he has every right to expect to be next in line after Johnson. If not Corbyn, GE.
The most likely scenario at present is that Parliament votes for a law banning No Deal in September, and demanding another extension.
Johnson will then do his best to ignore it, and I don't know what happens then.
How do they vote for a law like this if the Executive doesn’t introduce a bill?
BEFORE 2016 Leavers: "Unlike the UK Parliament, the European Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
AFTER 2016 Leavers: "The UK Parliament cannot and must not initiate legislation to prevent a No Deal. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
First term incumbency hardly helped the 20 SNP MPs who lost their seats at GE17
That does not follow. Had they not been first term incumbents the margin by which they were defeated would likely have been greater. The factor is quite well established as exemplified by the Tories hanging on to marginals in 2015 which on the basis of the small pro-Labour swing in England would have been lost. Even in 2017 with a more significant swing to Labour, the Tories benefitted in seats gained from Labour two years earlier such as Telford and Morley& Outwood.
Clarke is in the red column for me in the next PM market. Corbyn is wrong about most things, but on getting next dibs to be PM I think he has every right to expect to be next in line after Johnson. If not Corbyn, GE.
The most likely scenario at present is that Parliament votes for a law banning No Deal in September, and demanding another extension.
Johnson will then do his best to ignore it, and I don't know what happens then.
How do they vote for a law like this if the Executive doesn’t introduce a bill?
BEFORE 2016 Leavers: "Unlike the UK Parliament, the European Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
AFTER 2016 Leavers: "The UK Parliament cannot and must not initiate legislation to prevent a No Deal. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
UK Parliament has always had private members bills etc, there's a big difference between a private members bill and ramming through a bill that does the polar opposite of the government's flagship policy.
If the government's flagship policy is wrong don't run a wrecking bill through, change the government.
Could’ve fooled me. To the extent Corbyn has a plan, it’s to allow Brexit to happen. A VoNC risks that and he will never table one.
This - "Corbyn wants No Deal" along with "Labour's Brexit position is unintelligible fudge" - has become something that people just say as a substitute for thinking seriously about the issue at hand.
It reminds me of "Lampard and Gerrard can't play together" or "People are more friendly up north."
Of course they could - and are they bollox - but once something becomes an old chestnut it is next to impossible to kill it off.
Could’ve fooled me. To the extent Corbyn has a plan, it’s to allow Brexit to happen. A VoNC risks that and he will never table one.
This - "Corbyn wants No Deal" along with "Labour's Brexit position is unintelligible fudge" - has become something that people just say as a substitute for thinking seriously about the issue at hand.
It reminds me of "Lampard and Gerrard can't play together" or "People are more friendly up north."
Of course they could - and are they bollox - but once something becomes an old chestnut it is next to impossible to kill it off.
Well they couldn't play together and people are...
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
The LDs are too far back now I think there, though they might pick up Fife North East from the SNP.
I think the Liberals are the only Unionist party with a chance of gaining SNP seats at the moment rather thsn losing some to the Nationalists
I like the notion that LibDems in southwest London consider themselves to be members of a Unionist party.
Might have more traction down in Cornwall where they are fighting hard against MK.
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Which thankfully will be wholly responsibile for their own legislative programmes, and can be sacked about every 5 years. Brexit is wonderful. Democracy is wonderful.
Well they couldn't play together and people are...
:-)
Point proven.
From the cricket...friendly..proven fact.
Just near to the dressing rooms, a steward climbs the stairs of the stand. "There's only one Brian Potter," sing the crowd. He does like a bit like him. And Keith Lard.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
I live in BRS, and the LDs do not appear to be very active on the ground. They finished 4th in the Europeans in the Scottish Borders, so I wouldn't be optimistic of a revival any time soon. NE Fife is probably more winnable for them.
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Which thankfully will be wholly responsibile for their own legislative programmes, and can be sacked about every 5 years. Brexit is wonderful. Democracy is wonderful.
Do you really think we'd be doing Brexit if the elite thought it threatened their interests?
Clarke is in the red column for me in the next PM market. Corbyn is wrong about most things, but on getting next dibs to be PM I think he has every right to expect to be next in line after Johnson. If not Corbyn, GE.
The most likely scenario at present is that Parliament votes for a law banning No Deal in September, and demanding another extension.
Johnson will then do his best to ignore it, and I don't know what happens then.
How do they vote for a law like this if the Executive doesn’t introduce a bill?
BEFORE 2016 Leavers: "Unlike the UK Parliament, the European Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
AFTER 2016 Leavers: "The UK Parliament cannot and must not initiate legislation to prevent a No Deal. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
UK Parliament has always had private members bills etc, there's a big difference between a private members bill and ramming through a bill that does the polar opposite of the government's flagship policy.
If the government's flagship policy is wrong don't run a wrecking bill through, change the government.
There has to be a word for that technique, where I say A is different to B, and somebody responds by saying "Ah, but (subset of A) is different from (other subset of A)". Whist true, it doesn't contradict the original statement.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only ere..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
The LDs are too far back now I think there, though they might pick up Fife North East from the SNP.
I think the Liberals are the only Unionist party with a chance of gaining SNP seats at the moment rather thsn losing some to the Nationalists
I like the notion that LibDems in southwest London consider themselves to be members of a Unionist party.
Might have more traction down in Cornwall where they are fighting hard against MK.
The LDs are fighting the next general election on a pro EU and pro UK platform taking on Boris and Sturgeon (and maybe MK too) while offering a more centrist alternative to Corbyn Labour
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Which thankfully will be wholly responsibile for their own legislative programmes, and can be sacked about every 5 years. Brexit is wonderful. Democracy is wonderful.
Do you really think we'd be doing Brexit if the elite thought it threatened their interests?
Yep. Because after the vote, not doing it would be worse.
Clarke is in the red column for me in the next PM market. Corbyn is wrong about most things, but on getting next dibs to be PM I think he has every right to expect to be next in line after Johnson. If not Corbyn, GE.
The most likely scenario at present is that Parliament votes for a law banning No Deal in September, and demanding another extension.
Johnson will then do his best to ignore it, and I don't know what happens then.
How do they vote for a law like this if the Executive doesn’t introduce a bill?
BEFORE 2016 Leavers: "Unlike the UK Parliament, the European Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
AFTER 2016 Leavers: "The UK Parliament cannot and must not initiate legislation to prevent a No Deal. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
UK Parliament has always had private members bills etc, there's a big difference between a private members bill and ramming through a bill that does the polar opposite of the government's flagship policy.
If the government's flagship policy is wrong don't run a wrecking bill through, change the government.
There has to be a word for that technique, where I say A is different to B, and somebody responds by saying "Ah, but (subset of A) is different from (other subset of A)". Whist true, it doesn't contradict the original statement.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
I live in BRS, and the LDs do not appear to be very active on the ground. They finished 4th in the Europeans in the Scottish Borders, so I wouldn't be optimistic of a revival any time soon. NE Fife is probably more winnable for them.
Boris may be pro Brexit but he is hardly a Putin style nationalist.
No, he doesn't have Putin's ruthlessness or determination for a start, but they are both prancing and belled bacha bazi serving at the pleasure of capital.
No Deal is happening. Johnson needs it to happen. He has no choice. The interesting bit is what happens then. We’ll all be less free, as will all UK businesses, and we’ll be entirely reliant on the goodwill of others with regards to trade, so will have less control than now. And it looks like we’ll be testing that goodwill by withholding payment of the £39 billion. Johnson clearly believes he needs constant conflict in order to stay on as PM. But will that be politically sustainable if No Deal does start to bite?
Why would we pay the £30bn or so for the transition period budget contribution if there is no transition period?
The government was on the news this morning saying that of course they would pay their legal obligations which they estimated at £7-9bn.
Winning the battle of public opinion in the UK is one thing, Charles. But in a post No Deal Brexit world we are going to be heavily reliant on the goodwill of those who do not believe the UK only owes £7bn-£9bn. And public opinion in the UK is of absolutely no interest to them.
Let’s keep it simple.
Why should we pay £14.5bn a year (IIRC) for a transition period?
OK. No FTA then. Oh, I forgot. They need us more than we need them.
Oh, so you are seriously suggesting we literally pay tens of billions for something we are demonstrably not getting. Any other remainers agree?
Most of the payments were business-as-usual payments as we would be essentially still a member. I think if we crash out then we don't pay them - though perhaps it's one for the lawyers to argue over whether we committed to paying for the whole budget period to the end of 2020. That isn't clear because it's not a scenario that's been anticipated.
There are some other bits of money, for pensions and some specific commitments, where we have a legal obligation to settle our debts, and we should pay those bits no question.
Boris may be pro Brexit but he is hardly a Putin style nationalist.
No, he doesn't have Putin's ruthlessness or determination for a start, but they are both prancing and belled bacha bazi serving at the pleasure of capital.
"belled bacha bazi"
Oh, thanks a bunch. How the hell do I get that out of my search history?
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
I do not dispute that at all. However, first term incumbency only tends to be relevant when the swing involved is fairly modest .It would be likely to be overridden by an adverse swing in excess of - say- circa 4%. There have been no Scotland Voting Intention polls for a while so it's not clear where things stand there..
In more rural Scottish seats with bigger Tory majorities over the SNP it could still be relevant
Indeed - though in some seats a LibDem recovery might bring them back into contention - eg Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk. Whilst their support collapsed in 2015, it still has a recent LD history extending back to David Steel.
The LDs are too far back now I think there, though they might pick up Fife North East from the SNP.
I think the Liberals are the only Unionist party with a chance of gaining SNP seats at the moment rather thsn losing some to the Nationalists
I like the notion that LibDems in southwest London consider themselves to be members of a Unionist party.
Might have more traction down in Cornwall where they are fighting hard against MK.
Lib Dems in SW London might be unenthusiastic about the Union, but Lib Dems in SW Edinburgh tend to have strong Brit Nat tendencies.
As the Japanese invasion of Singapore approached in 1942...
Well, I think that says it all (there is actually a point, but really with the WW2 metaphors?)
Apart from the observation that Johnson is not obviously less General Percival than May, and probably more so given his optimism schtick, so what? The British failure in Singapore is no blueprint for a successful Brexit execution
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Yet the UK and Russia are both big powers in or just outside the top 10 world economies, both in the G20 and both permanent members of the U.N. security council.
Also, both are wedded to a particularly mawkish iteration of retrograde nationalism too and have governments that serve the interests of a wealthy elite to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Which thankfully will be wholly responsibile for their own legislative programmes, and can be sacked about every 5 years. Brexit is wonderful. Democracy is wonderful.
Do you really think we'd be doing Brexit if the elite thought it threatened their interests?
Don't be daft. Either the elite includes the chairmen of at least 75% of the chairmen of the ftse 100 companies or it isn't very elite. How many of them do you think want Brexit to happen?
The money will only be signed off on agreement. Raising it as an issue when negotiations get stuck has an audience in the UK but is counterproductive if you actually want an agreement. It gets in the way of discussing anything else.
Ultimately the money gets sorted out as "full and final settlement" for the separation.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
I would struggle to name one other than touchy feely
Sir Alan Duncan reactivates twitter account in advance of announcements!
explain?
He dislikes Boris with a passion
It will become interesting if Duncan, Philip Lee and Gutto Bebb resign the Tory Whip.
Wont make any difference with the way all parties are all over the place. Furthermore not one of them will support Corbyn under any circumstances
Maybe - maybe not. Gutto Bebb has not ruled out supporting Corbyn. If Lee joins the LDs as rumoured, I imagine he will be bound by their Whip. No idea what Duncan's intentions are , but he was encouraging a Confidence Vote before Johnson took over.Were these three to depart, the Tories - including Elphicke - would be down to 309 MPs.
Sir Alan Duncan reactivates twitter account in advance of announcements!
explain?
He dislikes Boris with a passion
It will become interesting if Duncan, Philip Lee and Gutto Bebb resign the Tory Whip.
Wont make any difference with the way all parties are all over the place. Furthermore not one of them will support Corbyn under any circumstances
Maybe - maybe not. Gutto Bebb has not ruled out supporting Corbyn. If Lee joins the LDs as rumoured, I imagine he will be bound by their Whip. No idea what Duncan's intentions are , but he was encouraging a Confidence Vote before Johnson took over.Were these three to depart, the Tories - including Elphicke - would be down to 309 MPs.
I pick up vibes that some of the Bracknell Lib Dems don’t want him but I’m sure that’s the case in 99% of defections.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Alister Jack, John Lamont, Andrew Bowie to name a few
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Alister Jack, John Lamont, Andrew Bowie to name a few
Apart from when Jack was appointed Scottish secretary , I had not even heard of him, never heard of Bowie and have not heard Lamont since election. They are all invisible apart from touchy feely who was in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Getting run out when you have a day and a half to bat is ridiculous.
Mistakes tend to happen after a partnership is broken. New batsman, pumped full of adrenalin, and man at the wicket has just had his concentration jolted.
Coming off the back of a one day series, such things have an inevitability about them. The players’ instincts are developed towards the one day game, not the long form, and mistakes will happen.
It’s why I never believed England were likely to pull this off. Creditable that they showed some fight after the first innings debacle.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Alister Jack, John Lamont, Andrew Bowie to name a few
Apart from when Jack was appointed Scottish secretary , I had not even heard of him, never heard of Bowie and have not heard Lamont since election. They are all invisible apart from touchy feely who was in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Comments
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.161008669
and Johnson is odds-on. This seems to me an obvious lay - out of the dozens of Cabinet members, there is almost bound to be one who resigns over something or other befoie Boris gives up.
Though naturally that does not rule out his being utterly stupid into the bargain.
And in any event he was objecting to the PM lying about him, which he might well do even if contemplating a happy retirement.
I will never understand the way of thinking that just because someone is wrong, perhaps very wrong, and disliked, perhaps very disliked, therefore they are not 'relevant'. They can still be very involved in a developing situation, even as a wrecker or delayer.
I know this because I was on the point of moving there about 10 years ago.
So, what changes are we talking about here then?
The party system is such that ensuring one's own party remains in power will usually always be better than the alternative.
As the Japanese invasion of Singapore approached in 1942...
Well, I think that says it all (there is actually a point, but really with the WW2 metaphors?)
The UK also has a Gini co efficient of 32% compared to 42% for Russia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality
Rather wish the Cricket didn't stop for lunch now, just as the two guys are set. But if everyone else scores their average, England win - piece of cake, right? Hmm.
I think the Liberals are the only Unionist party with a chance of gaining SNP seats at the moment rather thsn losing some to the Nationalists
Leavers: "Unlike the UK Parliament, the European Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
AFTER 2016
Leavers: "The UK Parliament cannot and must not initiate legislation to prevent a No Deal. This is undemocratic. We must leave the EU!!"
If the government's flagship policy is wrong don't run a wrecking bill through, change the government.
The lunch break is likely to distract them, and they’ll lose a quick couple of wickets on resumption.
It reminds me of "Lampard and Gerrard can't play together" or "People are more friendly up north."
Of course they could - and are they bollox - but once something becomes an old chestnut it is next to impossible to kill it off.
Might have more traction down in Cornwall where they are fighting hard against MK.
Refuse to count chickens yet next session is critical.
Point proven.
Just near to the dressing rooms, a steward climbs the stairs of the stand. "There's only one Brian Potter," sing the crowd. He does like a bit like him. And Keith Lard.
There are some other bits of money, for pensions and some specific commitments, where we have a legal obligation to settle our debts, and we should pay those bits no question.
Oh, thanks a bunch. How the hell do I get that out of my search history?
Bairstow survives!
That is the sixth decision that Chris Gaffaney has had overturned.
Ultimately the money gets sorted out as "full and final settlement" for the separation.
If only they could have got it to 50-60 needed with still those to come in.
Mix up, and a piece of brilliant fielding, rather than a complete howler.
Wanting to see this win almost as much as a long overdue tilting of the Thatcher Blair consensus in favour of working people.
Coming off the back of a one day series, such things have an inevitability about them. The players’ instincts are developed towards the one day game, not the long form, and mistakes will happen.
It’s why I never believed England were likely to pull this off.
Creditable that they showed some fight after the first innings debacle.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/25/donald-trump-china-trade-war-1474382
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Btb8gLy3-E