I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
One year government bond yields are negative for almost every Eurozone country, with the exceptions of Greece and Italy. If you stretch your horizon out to 10 years, you can get an amazing 0.35% per year in Spain, and 0.41% in Portugal.
I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
I was having a tentative look at the remortgage I'll need to do at the start of next year, negative interest rates would be amazing to be honest (Yes yes I know lenders would charge a +ve rate, but it'd be perhaps 0.75% or so on the offer period...)
You're whining about interest rates when the base rate is 0.75pc ?????????
Hard to tell with sarcasm online, but the people who benefit most from ridiculously low interest rates are pensioners as it inflates all the asset values far ahead of working age population earnings.
I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
I was having a tentative look at the remortgage I'll need to do at the start of next year, negative interest rates would be amazing to be honest (Yes yes I know lenders would charge a +ve rate, but it'd be perhaps 0.75% or so on the offer period...)
You're whining about interest rates when the base rate is 0.75pc ?????????
No I'm not whining at all just noting -0.25% would be better for me personally Pensioners would likely see (another) rise in their property value anyway so no real reason for them to complain. The losers from a decrease in IRs to -ve would be those looking to buy in this country I think, all owners would gain.
I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
One year government bond yields are negative for almost every Eurozone country, with the exceptions of Greece and Italy. If you stretch your horizon out to 10 years, you can get an amazing 0.35% per year in Spain, and 0.41% in Portugal.
I tell a lie: Italian one year government bond yields are now negative.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
The EU are much closer to my personal outlook in this regard than our pathetic government.
40 years of "looking after number one" as an almost national religious mantra has left the British public unable to see it as anything else. You're either one of life's winners or losers, see.
Any No Deal Brexit planning that businesses do will involve the reallocation of human and financial resources. The smaller the business, the bigger the call to press the button will be. The only chance of it happening is if there is absolute clarity and no ambiguity in the guidance coming from government. Mixed messages will not do.
There is no mixed message. Personally, I am pleased that Boris is keen to get a great deal, and equally pleased that his Government has been instructed to proceed on the working assumption that it won't get one.
It is a refreshing change from the irresponsible behaviour of the previous Government, where the reverse often appeared to be true.
So should my business be reallocating human and financial resources to No Deal Brexit planning and away from other projects - such as recruitment, training and new product development - or not? What is the clear and unequivocal guidance the government and the PM are delivering on this? I’m afraid I don’t see the clear message you do.
It's a personal view, but I would suggest you hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and deal with what comes.
Expect the worst, then you are never disappointed.
Any No Deal Brexit planning that businesses do will involve the reallocation of human and financial resources. The smaller the business, the bigger the call to press the button will be. The only chance of it happening is if there is absolute clarity and no ambiguity in the guidance coming from government. Mixed messages will not do.
There is no mixed message. Personally, I am pleased that Boris is keen to get a great deal, and equally pleased that his Government has been instructed to proceed on the working assumption that it won't get one.
It is a refreshing change from the irresponsible behaviour of the previous Government, where the reverse often appeared to be true.
So should my business be reallocating human and financial resources to No Deal Brexit planning and away from other projects - such as recruitment, training and new product development - or not? What is the clear and unequivocal guidance the government and the PM are delivering on this? I’m afraid I don’t see the clear message you do.
It's a personal view, but I would suggest you hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and deal with what comes.
Expect the worst, then you are never disappointed.
I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
I was having a tentative look at the remortgage I'll need to do at the start of next year, negative interest rates would be amazing to be honest (Yes yes I know lenders would charge a +ve rate, but it'd be perhaps 0.75% or so on the offer period...)
You're whining about interest rates when the base rate is 0.75pc ?????????
Hard to tell with sarcasm online, but the people who benefit most from ridiculously low interest rates are pensioners as it inflates all the asset values far ahead of working age population earnings.
I wasn't being sarcastic. Their assets are inflated on paper but since they're not going to sell they need they're saving's interest.
But I am for a LVT so maybe my position is a bit confused.
I'm surprised the EU aren't moving faster. You'd think they'd want to get past Brexit and move on to happier things like imposing negative interest rates across the Eurozone.
One year government bond yields are negative for almost every Eurozone country, with the exceptions of Greece and Italy. If you stretch your horizon out to 10 years, you can get an amazing 0.35% per year in Spain, and 0.41% in Portugal.
!!
Do you agree with some of the black swan economists on Twitter who suggest another banking crisis - particularly in Spain and Italy - is looming? And possibly a danger to the Euro?
The media and Sky in particular seem to be having a collective nervous breakdown over Boris refusal to deal with the EU without scrapping the WDA.
Everything thats wrong with this country (or at least 90% of it) is down to rolling new channels like Sky combined with social media.
There was a time when "news" was only on three or four times a day and in between everyone just got on with their lives without living in perpeptual panic as the next "crisis" is hyped up every hour on the hour so that the rolling news channels have something to talk about.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
The reality is that there is no such thing as "no-deal". Only "no deal by 31st October". In reality if we do not have a deal with EU27 by said date, we will have to get a very bad deal thereafter in some form or other, which will involve us grovelling to get a trade deal which is much poorer than we have at the moment, while we simultaneously get totally rogered by Trump's negotiators in a highly asymmetrical "FTAINO" .
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
Your gripe should be aimed at the EU.
Only if you are a whingeing Leaver with a xenophobia complex, in which case your gripe will be with the EU about everything that goes wrong in your sad introspective life. Not referring to you personally, of course.
I would be interesting in thoughts on this: Boris has to play the game of blame transferring, especially with regard to no deal. That's obvious. Why doesn't the EU - completely in accord with the provisions of Article 50 - offer an open ended extension without limit of time so that it is impossible to pretend that the EU has forced us into no deal? Have they missed a trick or are they waiting till later?
The volume of EU/UK trade flows goes into the hundreds of billions per annum and is suffering already. Exports from the UK to Germany have decreased by more than 6%, from Germany to UK by more than 2%.
Some businesses have planning cycles of up to a decade (car factories/chemical plants). The continuity of economic operations under such conditions of future legal uncertainty is unsustainable.
With all due respect Matthias, you need to look at the whole picture. How are German imports in total: are they rising or falling? Ditto for the UK. You may simply be capturing slowdowns the the German and British economies.
You certainly have a point there. The global slowdown will have impacted these numbers, but german businesses are very sure that Brexit also has already had an impact. Anyway, the question was whether the EU might be inclined to enter into prolonged uncertainty for the future, and to my mind this is inconceivable to the vast majority of those involved.
The reality is that there is no such thing as "no-deal". Only "no deal by 31st October". In reality if we do not have a deal with EU27 by said date, we will have to get a very bad deal thereafter in some form or other, which will involve us grovelling to get a trade deal which is much poorer than we have at the moment, while we simultaneously get totally rogered by Trump's negotiators in a highly asymmetrical "FTAINO" .
Putin laughing spreads his wings. Oh Lord yea!
And one which will need to be ratified line by line by 28 Parliaments we have severely inconvenienced.
Will UK nationals continue to get their State Pension uprated under no deal?
The UK leaving the EU will not affect entitlement to continue receiving the UK State Pension if you live in the EU, and we are committed to uprate across the EU in 2019 to 2020. We would wish to continue uprating pensions beyond that but would take decisions in light of whether, as we would hope and expect, reciprocal arrangements with the EU are in place.
Government looking to penalise UK pensioners in Europe.
In the absence of a deal that would be down to negotiations between the UK and individual countries I believe.
No, I disagree, the pensioners have earned their pension entitlement in the UK -they should be uprated. It is our decision to make.
I would be interesting in thoughts on this: Boris has to play the game of blame transferring, especially with regard to no deal. That's obvious. Why doesn't the EU - completely in accord with the provisions of Article 50 - offer an open ended extension without limit of time so that it is impossible to pretend that the EU has forced us into no deal? Have they missed a trick or are they waiting till later?
Who knows but we only a few days into a high stakes poker game
I expect stalemate for some weeks but if, and it is a big if, Boris starts winning popular approval some compromise may well come into view
This is not a game of poker, which is ultimately decided by the value of hands that are unknown to the other players while the betting goes on. The information which guides decisions (legal text of international trade treaties/economic statistics) are accessible to any player, there are no secrets, everything relevant is out in the open. Who exactly is holding the office of PM and approval ratings are at best of secondary consideration.
The same set of public facts can lead to different decisions as to what to do about them. The poker part of negotiations is about the unknowns of judgement. courage, secret agreements and alliances, priorities among alternatives and so on.
The media and Sky in particular seem to be having a collective nervous breakdown over Boris refusal to deal with the EU without scrapping the WDA.
Everything thats wrong with this country (or at least 90% of it) is down to social 24hr rolling new channels like Sky combined with social media.
There was a time when "news" was only on three or four times a day and in between everyone just got on with their lives without living in perpeptual panic as the next "crisis" is hyped up every hour on the hour so that the rolling news channels have something to talk about.
I'm sure the country was much better for it...
Certainly, the governance of the country was better for it. Now we have media people tasked with finding a new angle on what was said an hour ago, just to keep their bread and circuses bandwagon rolling. Thankfully, there will always be some no-mark with a Twitter account to say something that then becomes "news".
Clue; it's not. It's invariably some ill-informed gobshite mouthing off. If Twitter was taxed on the basis of each gobshite rant, it would be hugely lucrative for the Govt. For less than 24 hours....
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
Re Pelosi, surely it isnt BoJo who is threatening to put a hard border on the inner-Irish border?
This kind of talk surprises me. A hard Brexit implies the UK government has chosen the WTO route. HMG have also published draft tariffs. The article below talks about cheddar. There are literally hundreds of thousands of such commodity codes. Remember the hard border would not be just in Ireland. You have to imagine a similar "hard" border in each Airport and Seaport. If we did not have a border how would we collect the duties. So cheddar coming from Ireland will be free and if it came from France it would have duty imposed on it ? https://www.farminguk.com/news/-no-deal-tariffs-on-cheddar-imports-inadequate-_53275.html
The reality is that there is no such thing as "no-deal". Only "no deal by 31st October". In reality if we do not have a deal with EU27 by said date, we will have to get a very bad deal thereafter in some form or other, which will involve us grovelling to get a trade deal which is much poorer than we have at the moment, while we simultaneously get totally rogered by Trump's negotiators in a highly asymmetrical "FTAINO" .
Putin laughing spreads his wings. Oh Lord yea!
And one which will need to be ratified line by line by 28 Parliaments we have severely inconvenienced.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
Your gripe should be aimed at the EU.
Only if you are a whingeing Leaver with a xenophobia complex, in which case your gripe will be with the EU about everything that goes wrong in your sad introspective life. Not referring to you personally, of course.
It was the EU that had to 'win' though. Win/win would have been plenty enough for the British, but not enough for the EU, in that it could have encouraged others. Britain had to be seen to be punished. Of course, it takes two to negotiate and I believe we negotiated badly, but still.
Re Pelosi, surely it isnt BoJo who is threatening to put a hard border on the inner-Irish border?
This kind of talk surprises me. A hard Brexit implies the UK government has chosen the WTO route. HMG have also published draft tariffs. The article below talks about cheddar. There are literally hundreds of thousands of such commodity codes. Remember the hard border would not be just in Ireland. You have to imagine a similar "hard" border in each Airport and Seaport. If we did not have a border how would we collect the duties. So cheddar coming from Ireland will be free and if it came from France it would have duty imposed on it ? https://www.farminguk.com/news/-no-deal-tariffs-on-cheddar-imports-inadequate-_53275.html
You don’t have to imagine anything, because such a border already exists for non-EU trade.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
The correct expression we have been advised is Boris Johnson Esq.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
Your gripe should be aimed at the EU.
The EU gave up a lot for the negotiated deal - which met May's red lines and compromised the Single Market to a high degree, whilst not allowing individual member states to negotiate their own favourable elements. As far as geting the impossible went, this was as good as it was going to get, the least worst option. Even the backstop was down to May's red lines.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
Will UK nationals continue to get their State Pension uprated under no deal?
The UK leaving the EU will not affect entitlement to continue receiving the UK State Pension if you live in the EU, and we are committed to uprate across the EU in 2019 to 2020. We would wish to continue uprating pensions beyond that but would take decisions in light of whether, as we would hope and expect, reciprocal arrangements with the EU are in place.
Government looking to penalise UK pensioners in Europe.
In the absence of a deal that would be down to negotiations between the UK and individual countries I believe.
No, I disagree, the pensioners have earned their pension entitlement in the UK -they should be uprated. It is our decision to make.
Disagree as much as you like - I believe this is the system used. I'd expect in mst cases if not all agreements would be made at the very least for existing pensioners and probably for all. In Spain where I live it would be very much in the interest for both sides to continue the current arrangement.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
What is fantasy and what is not is impossible to decide in these febrile times
Interesting piece on Boris by Mark Steyn, which portrays him as both the nation's saviour and a pathological liar and careerist.
Does that make him a philosophical Brexiteer? Doubtful. In the 2016 referendum, he considered the Leave and Remain choices in terms of what served his interests. To favor Remain meant supporting David Cameron, the de facto leader of the cause, and consigning himself to being a mere gentleman of the chorus. Whereas, if he chose the other side, his star power would make him the face of the campaign. He expected the Remain guys to win, and himself to have done himself a world of good with the Tory base come the next leadership election. Instead, and at least partly because of him, Leave won, and the chaos of the last three years began.
Something of a similar head fake is going on right now. A threatened "no deal" departure on October 31st is supposedly being touted by Boris just to force the EU into re-negotiating Theresa May's floppo "withdrawal agreement". So M Barnier and his backstop boy Leo Varadkar are insisting that'll never happen, and it's the May deal or nuthin'. Let them huff on. My view is that the whole re-negotiation thing is a feint, and Boris actually wants to leave with no deal. He wants a clean split - and the UK reborn as a sovereign nation, no ifs or buts. Whether he wants it because that's his preferred public policy or because it cements his place in history is unimportant if you happen to believe, as I do, that that's in the best interests of the United Kingdom.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
No you are quite correct. The only way Johnson could call an election would be to ask 2/3 of the Commons to vote for one in early September. And 2/3 of the Commons would probably oblige, but only if the cliff edge date of October 31 was moved back by several months at least so that the new government had a chance to get its act together after polling day.
So if Boris wants a pre-Brexit election he will have to dump his do or die, no ifs no buts commitment to leave on 31 October. Which would destroy his credibility, send Farage into full betrayal mode and be the worst possible start to an election campaign.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
OK. So people are no longer thinking Johnson wants an Autumn election? They're thinking all this apparent electioneering is a purely defensive move in case there's a genuine vote of no confidence in early September?
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
It is entirely upto Corbyn. Do not hold your breath
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
What is fantasy and what is not is impossible to decide in these febrile times
Well, I do realise that many things have happened recently which I would have previously discounted as sheer fantasy, but I think we have to keep trying to distinguish it from reality.
Will UK nationals continue to get their State Pension uprated under no deal?
The UK leaving the EU will not affect entitlement to continue receiving the UK State Pension if you live in the EU, and we are committed to uprate across the EU in 2019 to 2020. We would wish to continue uprating pensions beyond that but would take decisions in light of whether, as we would hope and expect, reciprocal arrangements with the EU are in place.
Government looking to penalise UK pensioners in Europe.
Does "beyond that" mean "beyond the current financial year"?
In which case, isn't the answer simply "Not unless other EU countries reciprocate"?
Why does it need to be reciprocal?
It seems that reciprocal agreements make it legally binding:
The policy on the up-rating of UK State Pensions paid to recipients living outside the UK is clear and is a long-standing one of successive Governments since WW2. The annual index-linked increases are paid to UK State Pension recipients where there is a legal requirement to do so. For example, where UK State Pension recipients are living within the European Economic Area, Switzerland and Gibraltar or in countries where there is a reciprocal agreement in place that provides for the uprating of the UK State Pension. The Government has no plans to change this policy. (HoC answer 10/4/19)
Extending uprating unilaterally could give UK pensioners in countries where it does not apply (e.g. Australia) reason to appeal for similar treatment - and this could cost an extra £600 million and rising each year.
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
No you are quite correct. The only way Johnson could call an election would be to ask 2/3 of the Commons to vote for one in early September. And 2/3 of the Commons would probably oblige, but only if the cliff edge date of October 31 was moved back by several months at least so that the new government had a chance to get its act together after polling day.
So if Boris wants a pre-Brexit election he will have to dump his do or die, no ifs no buts commitment to leave on 31 October. Which would destroy his credibility, send Farage into full betrayal mode and be the worst possible start to an election campaign.
Big flaw in that. If there are any conditions Boris will instruct his mps to withdraw their support so ending a GE
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
But Johnson isn't going to make it easy for them. He's going to carry on saying he's going to move heaven and earth to get a brilliant deal until it's too late for that Vote of No Confidence.
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Artificial Intelligence? Seems like a bit of an inappropriate nickname.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Its the same method as used against Mrs Thatcher. Calling her " Thatcher" was typically disrespectful.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I'm still having trouble fitting this idea of an Autumn election into the fabric of reality, now that the House of Commons has risen.
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
The Guakeward Squad will have to decide if VoNC is the only way to stop No Deal. The date for that decision has to be before the 5th of September - so that the VoNC is tabled on the 5th. Whether Mr Corbyn agrees with that is another matter.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
Er, is there a Commission to negotiate with before 1st November? I thought that Juncker had retired. His female replacement, whose name I forget, doesn't take office until then.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
Now you've lost me again. Wouldn't a VONC in early October lead to a post-Brexit general election?
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Artificial Intelligence? Seems like a bit of an inappropriate nickname.
I take it there will be no more references to Corbyn, Swinson, Abbott, McDonnell, Merkel, Varadkar or Sturgeon? To do so would be po-faced and disrespectful. Apparently.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
I don't refer to him as "Boris" since (a) I don't know him personally; (b) I don't refer to any other politicians by their first name; (c) the whole "Boris" brand is a carefully nurtured piece of political propaganda designed to disarm opponents and limit serious discussion of his policies; (d) it's not even his fucking name.
Being joyless and not wanting to be played are not the same things.
Interesting piece on Boris by Mark Steyn, which portrays him as both the nation's saviour and a pathological liar and careerist.
Does that make him a philosophical Brexiteer? Doubtful. In the 2016 referendum, he considered the Leave and Remain choices in terms of what served his interests. To favor Remain meant supporting David Cameron, the de facto leader of the cause, and consigning himself to being a mere gentleman of the chorus. Whereas, if he chose the other side, his star power would make him the face of the campaign. He expected the Remain guys to win, and himself to have done himself a world of good with the Tory base come the next leadership election. Instead, and at least partly because of him, Leave won, and the chaos of the last three years began.
Something of a similar head fake is going on right now. A threatened "no deal" departure on October 31st is supposedly being touted by Boris just to force the EU into re-negotiating Theresa May's floppo "withdrawal agreement". So M Barnier and his backstop boy Leo Varadkar are insisting that'll never happen, and it's the May deal or nuthin'. Let them huff on. My view is that the whole re-negotiation thing is a feint, and Boris actually wants to leave with no deal. He wants a clean split - and the UK reborn as a sovereign nation, no ifs or buts. Whether he wants it because that's his preferred public policy or because it cements his place in history is unimportant if you happen to believe, as I do, that that's in the best interests of the United Kingdom.
I personally hating dealing with people who treat every negotiation as some sort of game that requires a ‘winner’ rather than a quest for common ground.
It's not even good negotiation practice. The best negotiated outcomes are win/win.
Your gripe should be aimed at the EU.
Youm ean given your failure to renegotiate with the EU and failure to achieve any of the goals Leave set itself post-referendum, we should now blame the EU. "Failing" and "blaming". Hmm. if only somebody had invented a handy three-word phrase for such an approach...
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
Now you've lost me again. Wouldn't a VONC in early October lead to a post-Brexit general election?
If we do get into that state, an election straddling Halloween, WTF do we do ... petition the queen to revoke or request an extension, at her discretion?
I suspect that no-one fully understands our unwritten constitution because it's so vague compared to most other countries but have Bogdanor or Hennessey commented recently? Hennessey interviewed Chris Patten on R4 this morning which was interesting in itself but - probably deliberately - they kept off Brexshit most of the time.
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Its the same method as used against Mrs Thatcher. Calling her " Thatcher" was typically disrespectful.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
Now you've lost me again. Wouldn't a VONC in early October lead to a post-Brexit general election?
No a VONC gives the HoC 14 days to try to form a new government before an election is called. So the argument is that the HoC would appoint another PM with the sole job of asking for a further extension of A50 for the purpose of holding a general election (which we know the EU would agree to) and then an election would follow BEFORE Brexit but AFTER 31 October.
There are other possibilities - GONU, Corbyn minority government etc, but dumping Boris through a VONC does mean that the cliff edge at 31 October could be avoided without a pre-Brexit GE.
In practice I guess all the detail would be stitched up behind the scenes between the opposition parties and and the Gawkward squad so if it came to a VONC there would be a plan for what would happen after Boris fell.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Its the same method as used against Mrs Thatcher. Calling her " Thatcher" was typically disrespectful.
Mrs Thatcher was generally called Maggie but I doubt if anyone who actually knew her used that name. If Boris (or Al) wants to be called Boris, call him Boris, but how many call Labour's leader Corbyn?
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
Um, if you don't see the inherent humour in the phrase "Johnson", I'm not sure I can help you.
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
It has been reported that family and friends know Boris as Al. Didn't GHW Bush have half a dozen names on the go with different groups?
Its the same method as used against Mrs Thatcher. Calling her " Thatcher" was typically disrespectful.
Mrs Thatcher was generally called Maggie but I doubt if anyone who actually knew her used that name. If Boris (or Al) wants to be called Boris, call him Boris, but how many call Labour's leader Corbyn?
That's not true. everyone pretty much who was a lefty referred to Mrs Thatcher as Thatcher or as reminded Fatchah . It was like a rite of passage for leftys; once they had called Mrs Thatcher Fatchah, they were admitted in the club.
I agree with it in all my moments. This is all for show. We will NOT be leaving the European Union on 31 Oct without a Deal. That is a 'not happening' event. I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm, I really would. So long as my winnings were paid in hard currency, that is, and not by way of another farm.
Tory rebels must try VoNC in that first week of September unless Johnson has brought back a deal. As he is not even prepared to go to negotiate unless the backstop is removed that is now highly unlikely.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
FWIW I think some kind of indicative vote will be held at the beginning of September, not a full VONC but something that will make it clear to Boris that a VONC will follow PDQ if he doesn't find a way of seeking another extension. And if he doesn't then he will be VONC'd after party conferences in early October.
Now you've lost me again. Wouldn't a VONC in early October lead to a post-Brexit general election?
No a VONC gives the HoC 14 days to try to form a new government before an election is called. So the argument is that the HoC would appoint another PM with the sole job of asking for a further extension of A50 for the purpose of holding a general election (which we know the EU would agree to) and then an election would follow BEFORE Brexit but AFTER 31 October.
There are other possibilities - GONU, Corbyn minority government etc, but dumping Boris through a VONC does mean that the cliff edge at 31 October could be avoided without a pre-Brexit GE.
In practice I guess all the detail would be stitched up behind the scenes between the opposition parties and and the Gawkward squad so if it came to a VONC there would be a plan for what would happen after Boris fell.
OK thanks. Really I was trying to work out what was behind people's belief in an Autumn election. But I can see the point of a VONC in early October if the purpose is to install Corbyn (sorry, Jeremy, as we must now respectfully call him) as prime minister.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
You do realise that Adam exists in muslim theology as well?
You think Muslims call his wife Eve????
Apparently she is known in Arabic as "Hawwa" which is clearly cognate with the Hebrew "Hawwah" from which we get "Eve" via Greek "Heua" and Latin "Eva". She is not mentioned by name in the Koran though, according to Wikipedia, only in a Hadith (a saying of the prophet, recorded after his death).
I agree with it in all my moments. This is all for show. We will NOT be leaving the European Union on 31 Oct without a Deal. That is a 'not happening' event. I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm, I really would. So long as my winnings were paid in hard currency, that is, and not by way of another farm.
Believe what you like, but keep buying the baked beans.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
You do realise that Adam exists in muslim theology as well?
You think Muslims call his wife Eve????
Apparently she is known in Arabic as "Hawwa" which is clearly cognate with the Hebrew "Hawwah" from which we get "Eve" via Greek "Heua" and Latin "Eva". She is not mentioned by name in the Koran though, according to Wikipedia, only in a Hadith (a saying of the prophet, recorded after his death).
Of course it's cognate with Eve - it refers to the same person. It's not Eve, though.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
I have just heard Johnson's interview with Sarah Smith on the PM programme. It was nothing short of rambling nonsense. However BBC Radio Editors have extrapolated several meaningful and positive soundbites from it, which have throughout the day headlined Radio 2 news bulletins. How come?
I agree with it in all my moments. This is all for show. We will NOT be leaving the European Union on 31 Oct without a Deal. That is a 'not happening' event. I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm, I really would. So long as my winnings were paid in hard currency, that is, and not by way of another farm.
Believe what you like, but keep buying the baked beans.
I have managed to get through the small stockpile I amassed before March 31.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
You do realise that Adam exists in muslim theology as well?
You think Muslims call his wife Eve????
Apparently she is known in Arabic as "Hawwa" which is clearly cognate with the Hebrew "Hawwah" from which we get "Eve" via Greek "Heua" and Latin "Eva". She is not mentioned by name in the Koran though, according to Wikipedia, only in a Hadith (a saying of the prophet, recorded after his death).
Of course it's cognate with Eve - it refers to the same person. It's not Eve, though.
Right... So when a muslim refers to "God", they don't mean Allah?
I agree with it in all my moments. This is all for show. We will NOT be leaving the European Union on 31 Oct without a Deal. That is a 'not happening' event. I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm, I really would. So long as my winnings were paid in hard currency, that is, and not by way of another farm.
Believe what you like, but keep buying the baked beans.
I have managed to get through the small stockpile I amassed before March 31.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
On a slightly more serious note, the Metro quotes a police spokesman as saying: "Abusing someone because of their sexual orientation or gender identity is a hate crime."
Is that true? I didn't think we'd quite got to that stage.
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
Well it is not just people on the Left that don't want to fall for the cozy "Boris" bollox. I prefer BoZo as this is not joyless and sums the silly fat oaf. He is a joke, and history will treat him as such.
I agree with it in all my moments. This is all for show. We will NOT be leaving the European Union on 31 Oct without a Deal. That is a 'not happening' event. I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm, I really would. So long as my winnings were paid in hard currency, that is, and not by way of another farm.
I agree that there won't be a No Deal Brexit on 31 October. But the politicking is designed to get Boris back into Downing Street with a Hard-Brexit majority. So either way it's unhelpful that he and Raab have free rein for the whole month of August to ramp up the rhetoric. Voters are being worn down, and MPs are being worn down.
I still wish that the government could be held personally liable for the taxmoney being squandered on No Deal propaganda and preparations. That might be the only way to make them see sense.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
You do realise that Adam exists in muslim theology as well?
You think Muslims call his wife Eve????
Apparently she is known in Arabic as "Hawwa" which is clearly cognate with the Hebrew "Hawwah" from which we get "Eve" via Greek "Heua" and Latin "Eva". She is not mentioned by name in the Koran though, according to Wikipedia, only in a Hadith (a saying of the prophet, recorded after his death).
Of course it's cognate with Eve - it refers to the same person. It's not Eve, though.
Right... So when a muslim refers to "God", they don't mean Allah?
Sorry, we're talking about whether "Eve" is the same name as "Hawa" or "Hawwa." It isn't the same name. It's cognate.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
On a slightly more serious note, the Metro quotes a police spokesman as saying: "Abusing someone because of their sexual orientation or gender identity is a hate crime."
Is that true? I didn't think we'd quite got to that stage.
Yes, if it is done in public. It then becomes a breach of the Public Order Act.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
@Cyclefree, what do you make of Boris's commitment to national infrastructure? I remember you having strong views in this areain discussions below the line.
To be honest, I haven’t followed in detail. So can’t comment on specifics. Sorry. Not avoiding the question. Just don’t feel able to say.
Let's see.
So far we have scrap the HS2 bit that makes sense (on capacity grounds) Build only part of HS3 - the bit between Leeds and Manchester. No mention of heathrow and runways...
Have I missed anything else?
This is all a bit hypothetical if the government doesn't have a majority, doesn't dare hold an election, and faces an existential crisis in 3 months' time.
I think Boris is pre GE campaigning now and appears to be framing a 'who governs Britain' question ready to launch in the Autumn
It amazes me he is being given six weeks unopposed run at it
I would not be surprised to discover that Corbyn has gone on holiday to spend all of August in the Masurian Lakes or some such.
He has made a decision today I believe.
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
I've been hearing people on the Left giving interviews, where they refer to "Johnson" throughout. Brand Boris clearly sticks in their craw - and shows them up for the po-faced joyless souls they are....
Boris Johnson is not the self-constructed cuddly funster 'Boris' therefore I would prefer to refer to him by his genuine name. Similarly Jeremy Corbyn is devoid of any cuddly funster characteristics so I would prefer to refer to him by a name which is in no way reverential. Corbyn fits the bill.
"Video has emerged of a woman appearing to shout homophobic abuse at people on a Pride march.
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
An American born-again Christian in a niqab? Strange.
On a slightly more serious note, the Metro quotes a police spokesman as saying: "Abusing someone because of their sexual orientation or gender identity is a hate crime."
Is that true? I didn't think we'd quite got to that stage.
Yes, if it is done in public. It then becomes a breach of the Public Order Act.
Strangely I looked at precisely that page before I posted. It appears to say that abuse can be a "hate incident," but doesn't list it as a "hate crime."
Edit: It says the Public Order Act outlaws "causing harassment, alarm or distress."
Re Pelosi, surely it isnt BoJo who is threatening to put a hard border on the inner-Irish border?
This kind of talk surprises me. A hard Brexit implies the UK government has chosen the WTO route. HMG have also published draft tariffs. The article below talks about cheddar. There are literally hundreds of thousands of such commodity codes. Remember the hard border would not be just in Ireland. You have to imagine a similar "hard" border in each Airport and Seaport. If we did not have a border how would we collect the duties. So cheddar coming from Ireland will be free and if it came from France it would have duty imposed on it ? https://www.farminguk.com/news/-no-deal-tariffs-on-cheddar-imports-inadequate-_53275.html
You don’t have to imagine anything, because such a border already exists for non-EU trade.
You are correct. But the EU countries were not part of that. Every country will have to be treated the same under WTO. So previously, goods from EU treated separately from, say, China. After No Deal it will be the same. So going back to Ireland, no avoid a hard border, a "guarantee" is needed. That is the backstop [ horrible word ]. It could have been limited to Ireland [ and that was a EU concession ] but of course the UK government wanted the backstop to be UK wide. We all know had the DUP not held the veto, the matter would have sailed through the HoC.
Comments
Pensioners would likely see (another) rise in their property value anyway so no real reason for them to complain.
The losers from a decrease in IRs to -ve would be those looking to buy in this country I think, all owners would gain.
You're either one of life's winners or losers, see.
But I am for a LVT so maybe my position is a bit confused.
Do you agree with some of the black swan economists on Twitter who suggest another banking crisis - particularly in Spain and Italy - is looming? And possibly a danger to the Euro?
There was a time when "news" was only on three or four times a day and in between everyone just got on with their lives without living in perpeptual panic as the next "crisis" is hyped up every hour on the hour so that the rolling news channels have something to talk about.
I'm sure the country was much better for it...
Putin laughing spreads his wings. Oh Lord yea!
Anyway, the question was whether the EU might be inclined to enter into prolonged uncertainty for the future, and to my mind this is inconceivable to the vast majority of those involved.
Clue; it's not. It's invariably some ill-informed gobshite mouthing off. If Twitter was taxed on the basis of each gobshite rant, it would be hugely lucrative for the Govt. For less than 24 hours....
What are people thinking?
(1) Johnson orchestrates a fake vote of no confidence in his own government immediately after the recess (by my reckoning, by 12 September if he wants to have an election on Brexit Day itself, or by 5 September if he wants it a week earlier), allowing Corbyn the chance to form an alternative government, and obviously handing all the levers of government over to Corbyn as well.
(2) Johnson tries to persuade two thirds of the Commons to vote for an election on 10 October or later, the vote being held by 26 September, which in practice dictates much the same timing as in (1), given that the House will be expected to rise again for the conference season in the middle of the month.
(3) Johnson contrives an election after we leave the EU with no deal on 31 October.
All three of those seem to me to be well within the realms of fantasy. Am I missing something?
Remember the hard border would not be just in Ireland. You have to imagine a similar "hard" border in each Airport and Seaport.
If we did not have a border how would we collect the duties. So cheddar coming from Ireland will be free and if it came from France it would have duty imposed on it ?
https://www.farminguk.com/news/-no-deal-tariffs-on-cheddar-imports-inadequate-_53275.html
He will not call Boris 'Boris'
Does that make him a philosophical Brexiteer? Doubtful. In the 2016 referendum, he considered the Leave and Remain choices in terms of what served his interests. To favor Remain meant supporting David Cameron, the de facto leader of the cause, and consigning himself to being a mere gentleman of the chorus. Whereas, if he chose the other side, his star power would make him the face of the campaign. He expected the Remain guys to win, and himself to have done himself a world of good with the Tory base come the next leadership election. Instead, and at least partly because of him, Leave won, and the chaos of the last three years began.
Something of a similar head fake is going on right now. A threatened "no deal" departure on October 31st is supposedly being touted by Boris just to force the EU into re-negotiating Theresa May's floppo "withdrawal agreement". So M Barnier and his backstop boy Leo Varadkar are insisting that'll never happen, and it's the May deal or nuthin'. Let them huff on. My view is that the whole re-negotiation thing is a feint, and Boris actually wants to leave with no deal. He wants a clean split - and the UK reborn as a sovereign nation, no ifs or buts. Whether he wants it because that's his preferred public policy or because it cements his place in history is unimportant if you happen to believe, as I do, that that's in the best interests of the United Kingdom.
https://www.steynonline.com/9576/berrying-boris
So if Boris wants a pre-Brexit election he will have to dump his do or die, no ifs no buts commitment to leave on 31 October. Which would destroy his credibility, send Farage into full betrayal mode and be the worst possible start to an election campaign.
It is imperative they do not lose their nerve and they do the deed in that first essential week back.
The policy on the up-rating of UK State Pensions paid to recipients living outside the UK is clear and is a long-standing one of successive Governments since WW2. The annual index-linked increases are paid to UK State Pension recipients where there is a legal requirement to do so. For example, where UK State Pension recipients are living within the European Economic Area, Switzerland and Gibraltar or in countries where there is a reciprocal agreement in place that provides for the uprating of the UK State Pension. The Government has no plans to change this policy.
(HoC answer 10/4/19)
Extending uprating unilaterally could give UK pensioners in countries where it does not apply (e.g. Australia) reason to appeal for similar treatment - and this could cost an extra £600 million and rising each year.
I'm starting to expect a VoNC in October once the pamphlets arrive and people start panicking...
Wearing a black niqab, she can be heard in the footage posted on social media repeatedly shouting "shame on you" at the crowd, including at a man draped in a rainbow LGBT flag.
She can be heard saying: "God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve. Shame on you, shame on all of you.""
https://news.sky.com/story/footage-shows-woman-in-niqab-shouting-homophobic-abuse-at-pride-march-in-waltham-forest-11772699
To do so would be po-faced and disrespectful. Apparently.
(a) I don't know him personally;
(b) I don't refer to any other politicians by their first name;
(c) the whole "Boris" brand is a carefully nurtured piece of political propaganda designed to disarm opponents and limit serious discussion of his policies;
(d) it's not even his fucking name.
Being joyless and not wanting to be played are not the same things.
Oh. People are failing and blaming the EU. That's novel. That's never happened before...
I suspect that no-one fully understands our unwritten constitution because it's so vague compared to most other countries but have Bogdanor or Hennessey commented recently? Hennessey interviewed Chris Patten on R4 this morning which was interesting in itself but - probably deliberately - they kept off Brexshit most of the time.
That should of course be "Fatchah".
There are other possibilities - GONU, Corbyn minority government etc, but dumping Boris through a VONC does mean that the cliff edge at 31 October could be avoided without a pre-Brexit GE.
In practice I guess all the detail would be stitched up behind the scenes between the opposition parties and and the Gawkward squad so if it came to a VONC there would be a plan for what would happen after Boris fell.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/07/germany-post-race-analysis-2019.html
"When did tourism become a crime?
Venice’s new rules for tourists are making life hell for locals, too"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/07/29/when-did-tourism-become-a-crime/
https://twitter.com/MichaelPeterAnt/status/1155751505070362624
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanomachy
Yes, time to start hoarding again.
If I've called this wrong and 31 Oct No Deal DOES happen, my betting losses will have me on nothing but baked beans for a year.
But I'm pretty sure I haven't.
"Abusing someone because of their sexual orientation or gender identity is a hate crime."
Is that true? I didn't think we'd quite got to that stage.
I still wish that the government could be held personally liable for the taxmoney being squandered on No Deal propaganda and preparations. That might be the only way to make them see sense.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49154816
So Mark Field faces no criminal or parliamentary action.
Just the Conservative party internal disciplinary still running.
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/law-and-courts/discrimination/hate-crime/what-are-hate-incidents-and-hate-crime/
Edit: It says the Public Order Act outlaws "causing harassment, alarm or distress."
So going back to Ireland, no avoid a hard border, a "guarantee" is needed. That is the backstop [ horrible word ]. It could have been limited to Ireland [ and that was a EU concession ] but of course the UK government wanted the backstop to be UK wide.
We all know had the DUP not held the veto, the matter would have sailed through the HoC.