Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market pu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year
Betdata.io chart of Betfair price movements
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
One thing that just starting to get attention is how unmanaged a no-deal would be without required legislation: that trade bill that got stuck, a farming bill, a fishing bill, an immigration bill etc.
Chances of parliament passing them to enable a no-deal: somewhere near zero I reckon.
So forcing a no deal through really would be about bringing the whole order of things crashing down. And I'm not sure I can see even this Conservative party doing that, when it really comes to it.
https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032
I don't find the odds of 3/1 on Revoking Article 50 this year (perhaps 4's if you really hunt around) particularly 'nice.' Those aren't odds that attract me.
Instead, might I suggest another route to nearly the same end with fuller routes and better odds?
If Article 50 is going to be revoked, there's a good chance it would have to be before Oct 31st. If it isn't the case then it means Johnson will have had to extend the deadline. Either of those options would almost certainly mean the end of Boris Johnson as PM, something which is also achievable by other means such as a successful VONC.
I therefore suggest that Ladbroke's 5/1 on Boris Johnson being the shortest ever serving Prime Minister represents the better option if you're tempted by the revoke Art 50 market. That gives you until November 20th. That's a lot more juicy and I have just bet accordingly.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1155739652923580418
But in the end he will either have to blink himself or be forced out by a VONC.
'Everything is not awesome in Boris Johnson’s foursome'
https://tinyurl.com/y5drgpel
I daresay this won't go on HUYFD's list of endlessly repeatable sub samples.
'In the latest YouGov poll Scotland gives Johnson a thumbs down: 70 per cent are negative about him; 66 per cent don’t trust him and almost as many think he has extreme views and will make all the wrong decisions for the country.
Caveat: it is only a small sub-sample of the nationwide poll but you would need a rather large pinch of salt to convince yourself that there was not a problem for the Tories north of the border.'
For MPs they’ll find it easier to act if a combination of the following happens .
Panic buying in the supermarkets .
Pound crashing .
Businesses putting out relocation plans .
Under that scenario they can say we need to step in and the numbers in the Commons might grow to stop a no deal.
Only route to No Deal passes through Johnson winning an election with a working majority AND being serious himself about doing it. I judge both of those things to be doubtful.
And even if I'm wrong and he does win an election and he does want to No Deal the lay is still a winner unless it all gets done this year.
I'm hoping that the bombast and the rhetoric keeps flowing so that more and more punters get convinced, the price shortens, and I can lay lots more. I plan to go all in on this one just as I did - smug city and tootled trumpet - on 'no Ref2 in 2019'.
No-deal Brexit has suddenly gone serious. It is no longer an exercise in bombast and biceps-flexing. Boris Johnson is about to impose a massive economic sanction on his own country. He is playing with fire. It is a political stunt that has gone horribly wrong.
It is clearly reckless to assume a sensible Brexit deal before the due date of 31 October. Politicians can twiddle their thumbs, others cannot. Since March, the Tories decided collectively to stop working in the nation’s interest and play a game of chicken with Brussels. It has not worked. The government is now planning for crisis.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/no-deal-brexit-tory-joke-boris-johnson-economic-britain
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1155763543821758464
This is clown fest taken to a art form level.
For example we are leading the way in proposing to change the WA by removing the back stop.
If the EU showed the same amount of flexibility the back stop would be solved
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1155793772350967810
It is just a Unicorn deal, not a magic Unicorn. In Labour Magic is the preserve of Grandpa.
The only way to get something through parliament is a forced choice vote, and we know that they don't do forced choice votes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Győr
The thing is Bozo won’t dare bring them back before 31st October as they can be amended .
At this point there are prob only two ways to avoid no deal , a VONC or Bercow using the nuclear option and allowing an emergency debate to include a motion that can be voted on and amended .
That could suspend the standing orders of the House .
None is the simple answer.
Yep. It makes about as much sense as the Tory plans.
We are left hoping Swinson and a government of national unity can save us from these two sets of idiots.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/28/mr-johnson-swears-off-early-election-sweaty-aroma-says-otherwise
Don't pack too much stuff love, your partner wont be living there long.
If BJ is still PM and unchallenged / not lost a VONC, what are the circumstances under which the EU will offer an extension?
The WA is presented to and passed by Parliament?
BJ stops no deal rhetoric and accepts WA?
BJ resigns?
There has to be a reason for an extension, I can't see what that could be with BJ as PM
We were supposed to use the last extension constructively. That didn't happen!
I don't see how the EU could offer extension with BJ 'secure' as PM
Questions are:
Am I wrong?
What gives, our PM or EU?
Meanwhile fat man on right hollers encouragement and Latin tags.
I think the thing to look out for is the emergency debate route . Bercow can effectively ignore the advice of his clerks and do whatever he likes .
And to my SNP friends I come from the 'Ruthie' side on this
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155788310486421504
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/
Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.
I live on the 2nd floor
I live upstairs from you
Yes I think you've seen me before
If you hear something late at night
Some kind of trouble
Some kind of fight
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
With apologies to Suzanne Vega
Otherwise it’s Russian Roulette.
* UK Parliament appoints somebody to speak for them in matters of Article 50 extensions, Boris is still there but that person makes the request for a delay while the UK works through its constitutional crisis
* Boris brings back the WA again this time under a Union Jack tea cosy, it doesn't pass Parliament but he gets an agreement to pass it subject to a binding referendum, asks for time to do that
* Boris and somebody on the EU side have some discussions about the Political Declaration, they say they were "productive" but they have not yet concluded, Boris asks for an extension and the rest of the EU grants it, since the alternative causes an immediate crisis and the EU has never yet seen a can and not kicked it
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1155799355347144704
The EU is a united group of 27 countries with a clear strategy - preserving the EU and discouraging any other country from leaving - on which they are all agreed. They have level-headed and experienced leaders in most cases. Their total population is about 430m and their GDP is in the region of $18 trillion.
The PM leads a government which has no parliamentary or popular majority for its no deal Brexit policy. The PM is inexperienced, erratic and widely derided. His strategy is driven entirely by personal and party interests. Many of his supporters profess themselves happy to risk destroying their country in pursuit of Brexit. The UK has a population of 66m and GDP of about $2.5 trillion.
It's not very hard to work out which side will give.
If the EU are sticking to 'no change to the WA', then there's nothing to talk about, and we have a No Deal.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/preparing-brexit-no-deal-final.pdf
I had not realised that after we No Deal, the negotiations will be far more complex and protracted, as we are officially a 3rd country and not a A50 exiteer. Anything has to be ratified by all 27 state parliaments!
Johnson must be removed from office asap.
We leave without a deal, perfectly legally, if nothing happens between now and October 31st.
However, passing (and amending) certain legislation would make the process considerably more pleasant. If you look at https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/income-tax you can see the amount of revising work that needs to happen on a regular basis to avoid UK firms ending up in Double Taxation / Withholding Tax hell.
45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
Spain? (Gibraltar)
Ireland? (GFA)
France? (pissing themselves laughing)