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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    Brendan, tortured logic? Never thought I'd hear the like!

    But for many years the assertion in hard-right circles was that there's a 'hierarchy of victimhood': the rights of LGBTs trump those of women and they are all in turn trumped by the rights of Muslims. The reaction to this case seems to blow that out the water.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Johnson doesn't want the EU to agree a deal. He wants them to be seen as the enemy.

    Johnson doesn't want a No Deal. He knows the damage it will cause but has to keep up the pretence in order to present the Tory party as the Brexit party.

    What he wants is for parliament to prevent a no deal (if necessary he will covertly facilitate it) with an extension so that he can call a general election in October for November to get a clear Brexit majority in parliament. The EU will allow an extension for a GE>
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    rather than 35% betting on no deal, the reality is that 65% don't think it will be no deal..its a question of perspective.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Scott_P said:
    It is worth remembering two things as regards to No Deal.

    1. In the event of No Deal, the increase in the amount of imports requiring documentation in the EU will be 10-15%.

    In the UK, it'll double, as we go from around 50% (including EFTA/EEA) to 100%. We therefore have much more work to do to hire and train customs staff, than they do,

    The same is true of, for example, passport checks at the border. We'll suddenly find that there's been a doubling (or more) of the people who need to fill out landing cards (and who we need to process), while they'll see only a 20% rise.

    2. For people exporting to countries outside the EU, they will have only modest changes from No Deal, while we'll have quite significant ones.

    So, let's say you're a German car maker selling to Korea. Well, the local content of your car has gone from 65% to 55%, as 10% comes from the UK. Big deal? No, because you're still compliant with Rules of Origin,

    Now imagine you're a UK one. Well, unless 40% of the value of that Jaguar or Aston Marton comes from the UK (which it doesn't), then you suddenly find yourself facing tariffs. Simply, you go from 65% local content to 25%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    theakes said:

    Brecon held by Conservative then.

    I doubt it, by election and all. Poor omen for the lds if so though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Boris is refusing to even negotiate with the EU, and is now ploughing straight toward a catastrophic No Deal.

    And 45% of the country want this to happen?

    Will the last one to leave the United Kingdom please turn out the lights? This country is well and truly fucked.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    And we all know how much reliance can be placed on polling data based on hypothetical questions.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    You clearly failed to read it. What I buy into is Labour's failure to stand up against homophobia because they risk losing a key demographic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Scott_P said:
    That settles it. If Boris was serious about some new kind of new WA he wouldn't be shunning Brussels. Presumably Cummings has persuaded him that the chaos, suffering and destructiveness of No Deal is somehow desirable. I'm honestly not ruling out the possibility that Boris has gone quite mad, literally believes he's Churchill's reincarnation and this is some bizarre 'destiny' thing.
    He knows he cannot get a new deal and was being dishonest before to let deal Brexiters fool themselves.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Terrifying.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/preparing-brexit-no-deal-final.pdf

    I had not realised that after we No Deal, the negotiations will be far more complex and protracted, as we are officially a 3rd country and not a A50 exiteer. Anything has to be ratified by all 27 state parliaments!

    Johnson must be removed from office asap.

    Yes. The idea that we will Leave on Oct 31 in an "event", issue sorted, is as far from the truth as is possible. This will run and run for years, possibly decades as a live issue.
    However, it is a very convenient falsehood to propagate for now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Thanks Stuart. I am not and I have a great affection for all Scots

    ALL Scots?

    Surely not!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Don’t dismiss the possibility that Cummings prefers No Deal.

    I’ve never thought him any kind of genius, but he’s certainly smarter than most of his Tory tools. Low bar, of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Barnesian said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Johnson doesn't want the EU to agree a deal. He wants them to be seen as the enemy.

    Johnson doesn't want a No Deal. He knows the damage it will cause but has to keep up the pretence in order to present the Tory party as the Brexit party.

    What he wants is for parliament to prevent a no deal (if necessary he will covertly facilitate it) with an extension so that he can call a general election in October for November to get a clear Brexit majority in parliament. The EU will allow an extension for a GE>
    I admire your optimism.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707


    It’s just plain statistics that at least 1 out of 27 is going to be grit in the works.

    Spain? (Gibraltar)
    Ireland? (GFA)
    France? (pissing themselves laughing)

    Italy? (Fighting with EU on other fronts, look like a badass domestically for using this as leverage)
    Hungary? (ditto)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Terrifying.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/preparing-brexit-no-deal-final.pdf

    I had not realised that after we No Deal, the negotiations will be far more complex and protracted, as we are officially a 3rd country and not a A50 exiteer. Anything has to be ratified by all 27 state parliaments!

    Johnson must be removed from office asap.

    It’s just plain statistics that at least 1 out of 27 is going to be grit in the works.

    Spain? (Gibraltar)
    Ireland? (GFA)
    France? (pissing themselves laughing)
    TBF - Spain has been pretty good on Gibraltar and Sanchez has pretty well guaranteed our rights post-Brexit even in the case of No Deal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821



    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.

    No, 38% say they support Brexit with a 'clean break from the EU'. It is foolish, verging on bonkers, to conflate that with supporting crashing out in utter chaos, which is where we seem to be heading.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Those figures are not correct based on the latest Opinium poll if you read the link from Opinium I posted and page 6 of the political report

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.

    Not really - it's been that way for quite a while. A lot of people who voted Remain have long accepted the need for Brexit. The issue is how to leave.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Debatable if Harris’s healthcare plan in practical, but it should get her through the next debate.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/29/kamala-harris-medicare-for-all-1438631
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Boris is refusing to even negotiate with the EU, and is now ploughing straight toward a catastrophic No Deal.

    And 45% of the country want this to happen?

    Will the last one to leave the United Kingdom please turn out the lights? This country is well and truly fucked.

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.

    It's just a political fact: people do not blame themselves or their votes for things that go wrong, they blame the people in charge.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707

    \Spain? (Gibraltar)
    Ireland? (GFA)
    France? (pissing themselves laughing)

    Also once one of those holds things up for a bit you get

    Scotland (won't lift veto until they've resolved the remaining issues over their separation with rUK)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Don’t dismiss the possibility that Cummings prefers No Deal.

    I’ve never thought him any kind of genius, but he’s certainly smarter than most of his Tory tools. Low bar, of course.
    Yes. He wants to overturn the system. He's said as much. No better way to achieve that end.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    You clearly failed to read it. What I buy into is Labour's failure to stand up against homophobia because they risk losing a key demographic.
    Literally the only evidence he presents for that is that Stella Creasy said she was gutted to see it. He doesn't include the full quote: "Gutted to see this and clear such hatred isn't acceptable anywhere let alone in our home town".

    But why bother actually finding anybody in Labour defending homophobia when you can just make vague unsubstantiated comments about "woke-left circles" instead? The target audience is suckers like you, who clearly don't put too much emphasis on reality when forming their political opinions.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    edited July 2019

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    The issue is that people are not prepared to address the fact that there are those within Islam who are fostering the sort of bigotry that this individual has chosen to accept. It is not all of Islam - but if you look at the research, the level of anti-LGBT+ sentiment within Islam in Europe is high, in other parts of the world it stratospherically high.

    People are free to choose whatever religion/faith they wish. But they are not free to spread hate using their faith as a shield for their bigotry.

    You choose your religion, you do not choose your sexuality. So we have to challenge any religion that tries to deny my right to live and love.

    And too many of our political leaders are not prepared to challenge on this subject for fear of being accused of being -phobic. And by remaining silent, they are allowing homophobia to increase.

    This needs to stop.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    HYUFD said:

    Boris is refusing to even negotiate with the EU, and is now ploughing straight toward a catastrophic No Deal.

    And 45% of the country want this to happen?

    Will the last one to leave the United Kingdom please turn out the lights? This country is well and truly fucked.

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal
    That makes no sense at all
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Those figures are not correct based on the latest Opinium poll if you read the link from Opinium I posted and page 6 of the political report

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    They are correct. They are taken from the same poll a few pages on.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270

    HYUFD said:

    Boris is refusing to even negotiate with the EU, and is now ploughing straight toward a catastrophic No Deal.

    And 45% of the country want this to happen?

    Will the last one to leave the United Kingdom please turn out the lights? This country is well and truly fucked.

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal
    That makes no sense at all
    Why?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    I genuinely don't understand this. Johnson has to deliver a No Deal Brexit now. Anything else would be seen as a betrayal by the voters he is looking to attract. There is no no deal to be done with the red lines he has set.

    I think EdmundInTokyo's point is relevant. There's a discount on no deal because if we do no deal each of your winning pounds will probably be worth less than a $ or € each.
    If you believe no deal is deleterious to your currency holdings, then a bet mitigates the loss. I did do an article earlier this year about how currency conversion may be be a better approach than gambling [TL:DR: it does with less risk, but not by as much if you bet correctly], but the theory is sound.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    kinabalu said:

    Thanks Stuart. I am not and I have a great affection for all Scots

    ALL Scots?

    Surely not!
    You may find it hard to believe but yes, all Scots

    I have been close to Scotland since primary school, have lived there, was married there 55 years ago to my dear Scottish wife and have a large family in NE Scotland.

    If I had to choose between a Scotsman and an Englishman like Francois, Baker or the Spartans, I am 100% pro Scots and Scotland
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.
    Not really, as if you look at the extremes it's 38% OUT, to 40% IN. The country is still split right down the middle, as it has been since the referendum.

    As sensible government, even one that favours Brexit, would negotiate in good faith with the EU, and deliver a softish Brexit (EFTA, Norway, Canada+).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    You don't know what they voted for. I doubt you even know what you voted for.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Who here now thinks Boris means it now when it comes to NoDeal?
    He might not desire it but the current state of limbo must end. If we really do end up pushed out and punished for desiring self determination. Let’s do anything and everything we can to damage the integrity of their single market. They want a border in Northern Ireland let them put it there. If no border (which neither the uk or republic will construct) let’s use it as an officially endorsed by uk means of importing and exporting goods.

    You want to beat the crap out of us? That’s fine but don’t be surprised when you get shanked in the kidneys. We may have been only one of twenty seven but our economy is larger than twenty of those put together.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    Voters voted for Brexit, Deal or No Deal
  • Sad to see a union flag used as the symbol of "no deal" - as if that's a patriotic outcome rather than national humiliation.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    HYUFD said:

    Boris is refusing to even negotiate with the EU, and is now ploughing straight toward a catastrophic No Deal.

    And 45% of the country want this to happen?

    Will the last one to leave the United Kingdom please turn out the lights? This country is well and truly fucked.

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal
    That makes no sense at all
    Why?
    Because it is offered as one person's opinion - haven't seen any recent polling that shows a majority specifically saying "I support Brexit, even if it means no deal" (different from people supporting Brexit happening overall, which is obviously a separate Q)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    HY was doing exactly the same on yesterday evening’s thread: trying to make out that Opinium’s Scottish subsample showed that we were becoming Bonkers Brexiteers. Anyone with even a toe in reality knows that to be untrue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    Boris is heading for a 4th consecutive Tory government, something achieved only once in the last 100 years.

    The Tories are fine thanks
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Nigelb said:

    Debatable if Harris’s healthcare plan in practical, but it should get her through the next debate.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/29/kamala-harris-medicare-for-all-1438631

    Interesting story from the Daily Harris there, looks like she is tacking slightly to the right of Biden if anything on health.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    The issue is that people are not prepared to address the fact that there are those within Islam who are fostering the sort of bigotry that this individual has chosen to accept. It is not all of Islam - but if you look at the research, the level of anti-LGBT+ sentiment within Islam in Europe is high, within Europe in other parts of the world it stratospherically high.

    People are free to choose whatever religion/faith they wish. But they are not free to spread hate using their faith as a shield for their bigotry.

    You choose your religion, you do not choose your sexuality. So we have to challenge any religion that tries to deny my right to live and love.

    And too many of our political leaders are not prepared to challenge on this subject for fear of being accused of being -phobic. And by remaining silent, they are allowing homophobia to increase.

    This needs to stop.
    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.
    Not really, as if you look at the extremes it's 38% OUT, to 40% IN. The country is still split right down the middle, as it has been since the referendum.

    As sensible government, even one that favours Brexit, would negotiate in good faith with the EU, and deliver a softish Brexit (EFTA, Norway, Canada+).
    The country wants a Canada style FTA but if it takes No Deal to get there until a technical solution is found to the Irish border so be it
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    The issue is that people are not prepared to address the fact that there are those within Islam who are fostering the sort of bigotry that this individual has chosen to accept. It is not all of Islam - but if you look at the research, the level of anti-LGBT+ sentiment within Islam in Europe is high, within Europe in other parts of the world it stratospherically high.

    People are free to choose whatever religion/faith they wish. But they are not free to spread hate using their faith as a shield for their bigotry.

    You choose your religion, you do not choose your sexuality. So we have to challenge any religion that tries to deny my right to live and love.

    And too many of our political leaders are not prepared to challenge on this subject for fear of being accused of being -phobic. And by remaining silent, they are allowing homophobia to increase.

    This needs to stop.
    Really? Stella Creasy apparently had no trouble calling it out in this instance. Could you give me some examples of the left defending homophobia when it's religiously-motivated?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    You clearly failed to read it. What I buy into is Labour's failure to stand up against homophobia because they risk losing a key demographic.
    Literally the only evidence he presents for that is that Stella Creasy said she was gutted to see it. He doesn't include the full quote: "Gutted to see this and clear such hatred isn't acceptable anywhere let alone in our home town".

    But why bother actually finding anybody in Labour defending homophobia when you can just make vague unsubstantiated comments about "woke-left circles" instead? The target audience is suckers like you, who clearly don't put too much emphasis on reality when forming their political opinions.
    Indeed. It is the non-woke Old left. The likes of Godsiff, and certain hard Left groups who view minority rights as a distraction from the class struggle, who could be fairly called out here. Along with government ministers, who have shown virtually no response whatsoever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"
    Boris' position is go ahead with Brexit even if No Deal, Boris still wants a FTA and Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop ideally but prefers No Deal to further extension or revoke
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    Boris is heading for a 4th consecutive Tory government, something achieved only once in the last 100 years.

    The Tories are fine thanks
    But the Tories have only held a majority or a very short period in the last 30 years. Is that not a long term concern for the party? Shouldn't the fact the party has failed to gain a substantial, governing majority since Major lead to introspection? It always amazed me that even with PM Brown, BROWN, the Tories couldn't get a majority in parliament! There is a real weakness there, that your party need to contend with.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    Scott knows best peeps!!!

    The person who doesn't even read the articles he posts to support his "case" somehow knows what everyone voted for.

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    Voters voted for Brexit, Deal or No Deal
    And parliament refused to accept a deal. Leaving little else open.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    Voters voted for Brexit, Deal or No Deal
    They were told that there was no plan for no deal because we are going to get a good deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    Boris is heading for a 4th consecutive Tory government, something achieved only once in the last 100 years.

    The Tories are fine thanks
    But the Tories have only held a majority or a very short period in the last 30 years. Is that not a long term concern for the party? Shouldn't the fact the party has failed to gain a substantial, governing majority since Major lead to introspection? It always amazed me that even with PM Brown, BROWN, the Tories couldn't get a majority in parliament! There is a real weakness there, that your party need to contend with.
    On the latest Yougov the Tories would get a majority of 66, their biggest majority since Thatcher in 1987
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    One point which perhaps hasn't been fully picked up on by commentators is that all this 'do or die' rhetoric and issuing what sounds like ultimatums* to Brussels provides plenty of cover, as well as a very strong reason, for sane MPs to take an equally 'do or die' approach. So Boris and the ERGers who temporarily think they run the country can hardly complain if sensible MPs do 'whatever it takes' to prevent this suicidal course, and that might justifiably include some measures which are a constitutional novelty.

    * (admittedly threatening to damage ourselves very badly, which is an odd kind of diplomatic ultimatum)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    Brexit of some sort 52%, Remaining 40%.

    The tide has turned.
    Not really, as if you look at the extremes it's 38% OUT, to 40% IN. The country is still split right down the middle, as it has been since the referendum.

    As sensible government, even one that favours Brexit, would negotiate in good faith with the EU, and deliver a softish Brexit (EFTA, Norway, Canada+).
    Why would I "look at the extremes" - and exclude those saying leave, but let's stay friends with benefits? Er, because otherwise remain is holed under the waterline!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited July 2019

    Sad to see a union flag used as the symbol of "no deal" - as if that's a patriotic outcome rather than national humiliation.

    National humiliation would be to vote for Brexit then revoke rather than see it through
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Why would I "look at the extremes" - and exclude those saying leave, but let's stay friends with benefits? Er, because otherwise remain is holed under the waterline!

    Because the middle category is very poorly defined, unlike the extremes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Am i right in understanding labours position is now GE, magic unicorn new brexit deal, referendum on it...which they will advocate voting against and to remain?

    Not really. But I am here to help -

    (1) GE is not a 'position'. It is what Oppositions need in order to become the government.

    (2) The Deal they will negotiate will be very soft Brexit. Permanent membership of the Customs Union and close alignment with the Single Market. The Withdrawal Agreement will be unchanged. This is not a 'magic unicorn', it is perfectly reasonable and realistic.

    (3) They will offer a Referendum on this deal, the other option on the ballot being Remain.

    (4) The bulk of the party - members, MPs, cabinet - will campaign for Remain but it will be a choice. Some will campaign for Leave (Deal). Similar to how Wilson handled the split party in 1975.

    My pleasure - don't mention it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    notme2 said:

    Who here now thinks Boris means it now when it comes to NoDeal?
    He might not desire it but the current state of limbo must end. If we really do end up pushed out and punished for desiring self determination. Let’s do anything and everything we can to damage the integrity of their single market. They want a border in Northern Ireland let them put it there. If no border (which neither the uk or republic will construct) let’s use it as an officially endorsed by uk means of importing and exporting goods.

    You want to beat the crap out of us? That’s fine but don’t be surprised when you get shanked in the kidneys. We may have been only one of twenty seven but our economy is larger than twenty of those put together.

    Is "shanked in the kidneys" the new "close and enduring relationship?"
    It's all getting a bit Killing Eve.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    148grss said:

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    The issue is that people are not prepared to address the fact that there are those within Islam who are fostering the sort of bigotry that this individual has chosen to accept. It is not all of Islam - but if you look at the research, the level of anti-LGBT+ sentiment within Islam in Europe is high, within Europe in other parts of the world it stratospherically high.

    People are free to choose whatever religion/faith they wish. But they are not free to spread hate using their faith as a shield for their bigotry.

    You choose your religion, you do not choose your sexuality. So we have to challenge any religion that tries to deny my right to live and love.

    And too many of our political leaders are not prepared to challenge on this subject for fear of being accused of being -phobic. And by remaining silent, they are allowing homophobia to increase.

    This needs to stop.
    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?
    Churches and Mosques should not have gay marriage forced upon them but neither should they spread homophobia either
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    Boris is heading for a 4th consecutive Tory government, something achieved only once in the last 100 years.

    The Tories are fine thanks
    But the Tories have only held a majority or a very short period in the last 30 years. Is that not a long term concern for the party? Shouldn't the fact the party has failed to gain a substantial, governing majority since Major lead to introspection? It always amazed me that even with PM Brown, BROWN, the Tories couldn't get a majority in parliament! There is a real weakness there, that your party need to contend with.
    On the latest Yougov the Tories would get a majority of 66, their biggest majority since Thatcher in 1987
    I didn't realise that an election had happened and they had won it already! We don't need to hold an election, or scrutinise the parties via one, we can just pick the parliament based on the polls today!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.

    It's just a political fact: people do not blame themselves or their votes for things that go wrong, they blame the people in charge.

    Quite a lot has gone wrong since 2016 yet Leavers have if anything got more extreme. Maybe because of the way they are still being demonised by people who ought to know better and have respect for democracy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It is worth remembering two things as regards to No Deal.

    1. In the event of No Deal, the increase in the amount of imports requiring documentation in the EU will be 10-15%.

    In the UK, it'll double, as we go from around 50% (including EFTA/EEA) to 100%. We therefore have much more work to do to hire and train customs staff, than they do,

    The same is true of, for example, passport checks at the border. We'll suddenly find that there's been a doubling (or more) of the people who need to fill out landing cards (and who we need to process), while they'll see only a 20% rise.

    2. For people exporting to countries outside the EU, they will have only modest changes from No Deal, while we'll have quite significant ones.

    So, let's say you're a German car maker selling to Korea. Well, the local content of your car has gone from 65% to 55%, as 10% comes from the UK. Big deal? No, because you're still compliant with Rules of Origin,

    Now imagine you're a UK one. Well, unless 40% of the value of that Jaguar or Aston Marton comes from the UK (which it doesn't), then you suddenly find yourself facing tariffs. Simply, you go from 65% local content to 25%.
    Your first part is wrong. It's exactly the same amount of work. The percentage is immaterial.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Don’t dismiss the possibility that Cummings prefers No Deal.

    I’ve never thought him any kind of genius, but he’s certainly smarter than most of his Tory tools. Low bar, of course.
    Yes. He wants to overturn the system. He's said as much. No better way to achieve that end.
    Cummings has clearly brainwashed Boris. Boris is now Cummings's puppet and is obliterating Britain's economy, social fabric, industry and commerce, and international standing with his master's every malign tug of his strings. What a miserable development. The only mitigating factor for the Tory membership is that they were never explicitly informed that the PM they voted for was a stooge.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    philiph said:

    Wrong in an important respect.

    It is just a Unicorn deal, not a magic Unicorn. In Labour Magic is the preserve of Grandpa.

    Why is Norway plus a unicorn deal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    One point which perhaps hasn't been fully picked up on by commentators is that all this 'do or die' rhetoric and issuing what sounds like ultimatums* to Brussels provides plenty of cover, as well as a very strong reason, for sane MPs to take an equally 'do or die' approach. So Boris and the ERGers who temporarily think they run the country can hardly complain if sensible MPs do 'whatever it takes' to prevent this suicidal course, and that might justifiably include some measures which are a constitutional novelty.

    * (admittedly threatening to damage ourselves very badly, which is an odd kind of diplomatic ultimatum)

    Well quite. If the government is going to lose a vote of confidence (and we have Jacob Rees-Mogg's confirmation that he thinks they would), what's to stop MPs seizing control of the Parliamentary agenda in the 14 day period?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited July 2019

    felix said:

    Another dilemma for the Labour left:
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-curious-reaction-to-a-niqab-wearing-homophobe/

    Come on Owen Jones let's hear from you.

    Did you really fall for that article? You bought into the incredibly tortured logic required to pretend that supporting a woman's right the wear the niqab is somehow inconsistent with criticise a woman for anything she does while wearing one?
    The issue is that people are not prepared to address the fact that there are those within Islam who are fostering the sort of bigotry that this individual has chosen to accept. It is not all of Islam - but if you look at the research, the level of anti-LGBT+ sentiment within Islam in Europe is high, within Europe in other parts of the world it stratospherically high.

    People are free to choose whatever religion/faith they wish. But they are not free to spread hate using their faith as a shield for their bigotry.

    You choose your religion, you do not choose your sexuality. So we have to challenge any religion that tries to deny my right to live and love.

    And too many of our political leaders are not prepared to challenge on this subject for fear of being accused of being -phobic. And by remaining silent, they are allowing homophobia to increase.

    This needs to stop.
    Really? Stella Creasy apparently had no trouble calling it out in this instance. Could you give me some examples of the left defending homophobia when it's religiously-motivated?
    At least one Labour MP - surname Goddard did just that - and Corbyn along with most of the leadership have been noticeably quiet despite the noise from some backbenchers.

    EDIT: Correction Labour MP is Roger Godsiff I think.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Scott_P said:
    You'd think he might like to keep quiet about people sticking by their campaign pronouncements.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.

    It's just a political fact: people do not blame themselves or their votes for things that go wrong, they blame the people in charge.

    Quite a lot has gone wrong since 2016 yet Leavers have if anything got more extreme. Maybe because of the way they are still being demonised by people who ought to know better and have respect for democracy.

    I am afraid I just do not recognise what you are describing. I struggle to see anyone anywhere demonising Leave voters. Plenty are demonising the political leaders who advocated Brexit, but that is very different.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993

    glw said:


    Raab was absolutely dire on Radio 5 this morning. I could have done a better job than he did of answering the questions, and I'm just some random person from the internet who was half-awake at the time.

    Yes, I see that the old 'getting agreement with the EU will be easy' has now morphed into 'they will be much more cooperative after we've crashed out in chaos'.
    Didn't you get the memo? We should just be positive and that will sort things out.
    Here, we can zoom in on Boris's red laptop in the image being passed around and see who he's taking notes from:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGkKFick8E8
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:



    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?

    Churches and Mosques should not have gay marriage forced upon them but neither should they spread homophobia either
    I mean, what is their basis for refusing equal marriages? Is it because they don't believe God recognises the love between same sex couples? Should town halls be able to refuse service to gay men's choirs; and if not how is that any different to wanting to book a space for a different kind of event. Kinda sounds like homophobia to me.

    If marriage is a legal contract, I don't really see what business it is of religions to be involved in it anyway. You get tax breaks if you're married, you get specific spousal rights. All of those come from the state, not religious institutions.

    Edit: I hate blockquote, I can never make it look right when the character limit is up...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited July 2019

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Don’t dismiss the possibility that Cummings prefers No Deal.

    I’ve never thought him any kind of genius, but he’s certainly smarter than most of his Tory tools. Low bar, of course.
    Yes. He wants to overturn the system. He's said as much. No better way to achieve that end.
    Cummings has clearly brainwashed Boris. Boris is now Cummings's puppet and is obliterating Britain's economy, social fabric, industry and commerce, and international standing with his master's every malign tug of his strings. What a miserable development. The only mitigating factor for the Tory membership is that they were never explicitly informed that the PM they voted for was a stooge.
    No Cummings won the referendum promising to deliver regained sovereignty, greater control over who crosses our borders and the right to do our own free trade deals and Boris will deliver that.

    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazil under Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin or Italy under a future PM Salvini in pursuing a clean break with the EU
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    HYUFD said:

    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazilunder Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin in pursuing a clean break with the UK

    I presume that this is a joke, because that can't be a serious comment.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/

    Hmmmm ...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1155554899809247232?s=21
    The report doesn't say what @HYUFD says it does. (See: https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Opinium-Political-Report-24th-July-2019.pdf)

    45% of people say "Go ahead with Brexit on October 31st even if it means leaving with ‘no deal’".

    "Even if it means No Deal" != "No Deal is my preferred option"

    Indeed - a few pages on the poll makes clear what the preferred options are. And it's not No Deal. But Johnson has got himself into a place where he has to deliver one or he and the Tories will be done for. But then what happens? It is very, very hard to see how things end well for the.

    Boris is heading for a 4th consecutive Tory government, something achieved only once in the last 100 years.

    The Tories are fine thanks

    Yep - your team is winning, of that there is absolutely no doubt at all. Whether that is good for the country and whether it is sustainable are very different issues. But I suspect that like all fans you do not really care about that right now. It's just one game at a time.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited July 2019
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:



    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?

    Churches and Mosques should not have gay marriage forced upon them but neither should they spread homophobia either
    I mean, what is their basis for refusing equal marriages? Is it because they don't believe God recognises the love between same sex couples? Should town halls be able to refuse service to gay men's choirs; and if not how is that any different to wanting to book a space for a different kind of event. Kinda sounds like homophobia to me.

    If marriage is a legal contract, I don't really see what business it is of religions to be involved in it anyway. You get tax breaks if you're married, you get specific spousal rights. All of those come from the state, not religious institutions.

    Edit: I hate blockquote, I can never make it look right when the character limit is up...
    Religious marriage should stay entirely that, you can have civil gay or lesbian marriages but not religious ones. Indeed some vicars still refuse to marry divorcees in church quite legally

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazilunder Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin in pursuing a clean break with the UK

    I presume that this is a joke, because that can't be a serious comment.

    I also love the original edit saying "clean break with UK".

    And sure, I am so happy that my country is leaving the somewhat centre right embrace of the EU and going full throatedly towards the authoritarian, kleptocratic and outright fascistic. That is what I want from the world.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:


    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazil under Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin or Italy under a future PM Salvini in pursuing a clean break with the EU

    "A man is judged by the company he keeps" (Aesop)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:



    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?

    Churches and Mosques should not have gay marriage forced upon them but neither should they spread homophobia either
    I mean, what is their basis for refusing equal marriages? Is it because they don't believe God recognises the love between same sex couples? Should town halls be able to refuse service to gay men's choirs; and if not how is that any different to wanting to book a space for a different kind of event. Kinda sounds like homophobia to me.

    If marriage is a legal contract, I don't really see what business it is of religions to be involved in it anyway. You get tax breaks if you're married, you get specific spousal rights. All of those come from the state, not religious institutions.

    Edit: I hate blockquote, I can never make it look right when the character limit is up...
    Religious marriage should stay entirely that, you can have civil gay or lesbian marriages but not religious ones.

    Can we make sure that religious marriages get none of the state benefits a state marriage affords, then?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazilunder Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin in pursuing a clean break with the UK

    I presume that this is a joke, because that can't be a serious comment.

    HYUFD supports a football team. He is happy to win in whatever way necessary.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    We will have plenty of international support, including President Trump, most of the Commonwealth, Brazilunder Bolsonaro, Israel under Netanyahu, even Russia under Putin in pursuing a clean break with the UK

    I presume that this is a joke, because that can't be a serious comment.

    With India it covers most of the global economy outside the EU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    Scott_P said:
    There's an entire Establishment massively invested in Boris having to fail. Because otherwise, history will show they have just spent three years wanking into their sock...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited July 2019

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.

    It's just a political fact: people do not blame themselves or their votes for things that go wrong, they blame the people in charge.

    Quite a lot has gone wrong since 2016 yet Leavers have if anything got more extreme. Maybe because of the way they are still being demonised by people who ought to know better and have respect for democracy.

    I am afraid I just do not recognise what you are describing. I struggle to see anyone anywhere demonising Leave voters. Plenty are demonising the political leaders who advocated Brexit, but that is very different.

    My intitial response was to rotten Borough's comment 'they don't know what they're talking about'. Continually insulting the intelligence of voters may well be factually accurate [ not for me to judge] but it sure ain't a good way to change their minds. I have struggled to be polite to friends who voted to leave - I now accept that most genuinely believe in their choice and I respect them for it, while thinking they are wrong.

    Edit: Try reading some of Roger's posts about Hartlepool for example - countless examples on here.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Scott_P said:
    There's an entire Establishment massively invested in Boris having to fail. Because otherwise, history will show they have just spent three years wanking into their sock...
    I don't see what he is offering the EU to reopen the deal...
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Scott_P said:
    There's an entire Establishment massively invested in Boris having to fail. Because otherwise, history will show they have just spent three years wanking into their sock...
    The prize for Boris if he gets movement is enormous though. They are building him up to fail massively. That could backfire.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    felix said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson has got himself into a situation where delivering Brexit on 31st October is not enough. It has to be a No Deal Brexit. If this is an example of the genius of Dominic Cummings it may be that he is not quite the genius we’ve been led to believe he is.

    Opinium yesterday had No Deal now the public's most favoured option.

    45% of voters back No Deal, 28% of voters want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU and just 13% of voters want to extend Article 50 past October until a Brexit Deal is done

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-24th-july-2019/
    They don't know what they are talking about and they will forget they ever were in favour when there are food shortages and huge job losses.
    Yup that will bring back the Leavers on board let's call them thickos again - worked really well in 2016.

    It's just a political fact: people do not blame themselves or their votes for things that go wrong, they blame the people in charge.

    Quite a lot has gone wrong since 2016 yet Leavers have if anything got more extreme. Maybe because of the way they are still being demonised by people who ought to know better and have respect for democracy.

    I am afraid I just do not recognise what you are describing. I struggle to see anyone anywhere demonising Leave voters. Plenty are demonising the political leaders who advocated Brexit, but that is very different.

    You must be new here, welcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    People now want the Brexit they voted for, even if No Deal

    No Deal is not the Brexit they voted for
    You don't know what they voted for. I doubt you even know what you voted for.
    Some did vote for no deal even if not their preferred solution, some like me did not. People attempting to argue 100% are on board with or not with no deal are peddling untruths .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Pulpstar said:
    That thing with the protester at the Mansion House speech.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:



    This is what I feel is the real virtue signalling.

    Most people born pre noughties grew up in a world that was super homophobic (post noughties is only less homophobic relatively). You may think "well, not me guv" but I remember when gay and f** were common slurs used at anyone. I remember people I know not wanting to walk down the road holding hands. I remember having conversations with family members and friends' parents about equal marriage and they hated the idea.

    LGBTQ+ rights are not a stick to beat Muslims with. What about LGBTQ+ Muslims themselves? What about the Catholic church? What about the increase in homophobic violence across Europe which isn't coming from the immigrant community but from the far right? What about all the trans panic stuff?

    Churches and Mosques should not have gay marriage forced upon them but neither should they spread homophobia either
    I mean, what is their basis for refusing equal marriages? Is it because they don't believe God recognises the love between same sex couples? Should town halls be able to refuse service to gay men's choirs; and if not how is that any different to wanting to book a space for a different kind of event. Kinda sounds like homophobia to me.

    If marriage is a legal contract, I don't really see what business it is of religions to be involved in it anyway. You get tax breaks if you're married, you get specific spousal rights. All of those come from the state, not religious institutions.

    Edit: I hate blockquote, I can never make it look right when the character limit is up...
    Religious marriage should stay entirely that, you can have civil gay or lesbian marriages but not religious ones. Indeed some vicars still refuse to marry divorcees in church quite legally

    Do you think if a religious enterprise has a business part of it that that should have to follow equality law? For instance, let's say a church has it's hall and it rents that out to people as part of business functions. Do you think that church should have the right to say "people our faith dislikes cannot hire our hall, even for non religious events"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892

    One point which perhaps hasn't been fully picked up on by commentators is that all this 'do or die' rhetoric and issuing what sounds like ultimatums* to Brussels provides plenty of cover, as well as a very strong reason, for sane MPs to take an equally 'do or die' approach. So Boris and the ERGers who temporarily think they run the country can hardly complain if sensible MPs do 'whatever it takes' to prevent this suicidal course, and that might justifiably include some measures which are a constitutional novelty.

    * (admittedly threatening to damage ourselves very badly, which is an odd kind of diplomatic ultimatum)

    Well quite. If the government is going to lose a vote of confidence (and we have Jacob Rees-Mogg's confirmation that he thinks they would), what's to stop MPs seizing control of the Parliamentary agenda in the 14 day period?
    Who will parliament appoint PM for a day to revoke A50 though ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Scott_P said:
    Only if he believes what he says. Which I doubt.
This discussion has been closed.