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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinton’s party

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The new "next PM" betting market will be interesting.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    dixiedean said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
    If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
    My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).

    For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
    Long way off but two possibilities strike me. One, would be LibDem + SNP. I know that may seem extremely unlikely now but who knows?

    The other is LibDem + moderate Labour. This has real plausibility to me esp if Corbyn loses again.

    But if the LibDems continue their trajectory and Boris bombs all this will be moot. The greatest seismic change in British politics will not be Faragists, but the LibDems winning more than 325 seats outright.

    It's absolutely worth a £fiver.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Prime Minister May - Your Majesty I have come to tender my resignation as your Prime Minsiter and recommend you send for Boris ....

    The Queen - Is that him on a high wire about to land by the palace rails ?

    Mrs May - It is .... oh dear. He'll need surgery for that serious anal injury.

    The Queen - The Palace saves the day. I think we'll send for Jeremy.

    Mrs May - Corbyn ?!?!?

    The Queen - You do have a sense of humour after all ..... Jeremy Hunt it is.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I feel people are getting ahead of themselves regarding the Lib Dems.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    kinabalu said:

    Very dignified speech fromTM

    Yes it was. And good timing by the Storrrrp Breggsit man. That headed off any risk of weepy weepy.
    Yes it did have that effect
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    theakes said:

    Re Ipsos. Just produced polling in Canada and they are on their own having Cons 7 points clear whilst all the other polls have Liberals in the lead between1 and 3%

    Liberal - NDP coalition?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    kle4 said:

    Why does the labour leadership pretend the party is not pre remain? Nearly all mps even top ones admit it is.

    Because it is not outside London and the South. Upto 40 labour mps will not support it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1148555274879414273?s=19

    Another oddity is that the fieldwork is supposedly July 7-8. I assume this is just a mistake - it was surely taken directly after Swinson's election?
    No this is an older poll, but not unique in finding 10%+ BXP voters even after Brexit.

    All hypothetical beyond even normal polls, but odd nonetheless.
    So Mike's header is mistaken and it's not a new poll, but one overtaken by a series of YouGovs and others since?
    No, Mike's poll is the current one, mine is an older one set in the context of a post Brexit election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Booker is in the debate along with Biden and Harris. It could get fun...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/23/cory-booker-2020-1428356
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    just be thankful it isn't Corbyn.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I feel people are getting ahead of themselves regarding the Lib Dems.

    Oh I'm quite sure you do
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    It's OK, he'll lose them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    dixiedean said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
    If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
    My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).

    For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
    Long way off but two possibilities strike me. One, would be LibDem + SNP. I know that may seem extremely unlikely now but who knows?

    The other is LibDem + moderate Labour. This has real plausibility to me esp if Corbyn loses again.

    But if the LibDems continue their trajectory and Boris bombs all this will be moot. The greatest seismic change in British politics will not be Faragists, but the LibDems winning more than 325 seats outright.

    It's absolutely worth a £fiver.
    I got 500/1 on that post 2017 GE :)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I feel people are getting ahead of themselves regarding the Lib Dems.

    Oh I'm quite sure you do
    What does that mean?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    dixiedean said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
    If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
    My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).

    For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
    There has to be a tipping point under FPTP and it will depend on distribution of votes between types of seats and geography. If it comes down to Remain vs Leave and LbDems can beat Labour handily, it will then depend on how the Leave vote splits between Brexit Party and Tories.
    Very difficult to call, I'd say.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited July 2019
    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    dixiedean said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
    If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
    My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).

    For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
    There has to be a tipping point under FPTP and it will depend on distribution of votes between types of seats and geography. If it comes down to Remain vs Leave and LbDems can beat Labour handily, it will then depend on how the Leave vote splits between Brexit Party and Tories.
    Very difficult to call, I'd say.
    Nearly impossible I would say.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    just be thankful it isn't Corbyn.
    To be fair, he wouldn't use them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    theakes said:

    Re Ipsos. Just produced polling in Canada and they are on their own having Cons 7 points clear whilst all the other polls have Liberals in the lead between1 and 3%

    Liberal - NDP coalition?
    No tradition of coalitions in Canada. Will be a minority government, if no majority. Unless something changes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I agree with your post
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    AndyJS said:

    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.

    A lot depends on the geographic spread. 25% Nationally could well mean 35-40% across large areas of London and Southern England.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Nigelb said:

    Booker is in the debate along with Biden and Harris. It could get fun...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/23/cory-booker-2020-1428356

    Bought him at 76 and sold out my stake at 48. He's shown no signs of going anywhere after a small surge to take him ahead of the 1% field but could have debate upside.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.

    Wrong

    That share of the vote in 1983 and 2010 was when they were up against Cons and Labour polling 42% and 27% (1983) and 36% and 29% (2010).

    They are currently up against 25% and 19% in the latest poll. It makes all the difference.

    Baxter it and you will see
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I agree. There have been many false dawns, but 50 or more seats is very possible at next GE.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    So my constituency, Ealing Central & Acton, went from a super-marginal to a 14k Lab majority. Plenty of disgruntled remain Cons voters voting Lab as told to me on the doorstep. LDs with 3k (33k for Lab, 19k for Cons [a Boris leaver]).

    Rupa Huq, the Lab MP has recently been involved in an anti-semitism ( https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7118151/Labour-MP-Rupa-Huq-accused-anti-Semitism-former-employee.html ).

    The numbers are big but after a 2017 10k vote switch between the main parties I would have thought that the seat automatically becomes a LibDem target.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @Mysticrose I am a Lib Dem registered supporter but we have no idea how an actual election will pan out.

    FPTP is a fickle beast!

    Anecdotally, from Labour’s heartlands, people dislike Corbyn’s Labour but express unease with the idea of voting LD.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Celebrity PM Anecdote Alert

    My six year old daughter pointed at the telly and said 'look Daddy, it's Boris Johnson'.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    Even in his more off piste moment, he hasn’t mused about incinerating entire nation, as Trump has a least twice.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I think this is accurate but only as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader. Whether fair or not, the Lib Dems do not have a reputation of being a serious party that one would expect to produce a PM. An extended period of being ahead of Labour because Corbyn is still in place may change people's views on that but, just as Tory hopes rest on Boris producing a non-disastrous Brexit, so Lib Dem hopes rest on Corbyn remaining leader of the Labour party for at least the next couple of years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Fenster said:

    Celebrity PM Anecdote Alert

    My six year old daughter pointed at the telly and said 'look Daddy, it's Boris Johnson'.

    Your daughter is a celeb ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Nigelb said:

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    Even in his more off piste moment, he hasn’t mused about incinerating entire nation, as Trump has a least twice.
    Indeed. I worry about Trump far more than Boris.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I wish the LDs the best but I am a skeptic that they have the killer instinct and message discipline to manage the media grid.

    Where is their Alistair Campbell / Peter Mandelson?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Fenster said:

    Celebrity PM Anecdote Alert

    My six year old daughter pointed at the telly and said 'look Daddy, it's Boris Johnson'.

    On which CBeebies show in particular?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I think this is accurate but only as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader. [...] so Lib Dem hopes rest on Corbyn remaining leader of the Labour party for at least the next couple of years.
    I totally agree, and nearly added that caveat.

    If Labour had a half-decent leader they would probably rocket.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    I can't see the LDs becoming the largest party but I can see the price for any grand coalition involving the LDs and SNP (plus others) will involve IndyRef2

    If that passes, Swinson has a choice to make - find and win a new seat or depart the scene.

    You can't be party leader when your seat is about to disappear due to Scotland ceasing to be part of the union.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    AndyJS said:

    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

    Who runs the country in between?
    The Cabinet.

    (although technically May doesn't resign until she hands in her seal of office at the end of the meeting with the Queen)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Swinson needs to get rid of tuition fees.
    Start there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Has Boris actually managed to appoint a

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.

    Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?

    If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.

    No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.

    Corbyn has got this one right.
    "Now is not the time"

    A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
    Yeah, yeah: manana, manana, jam tomorrow, excuses, excuses.

    All bullshit, I’m sorry to say.

    He’s not doing it because he wants a No Deal Brexit, wants that to happen under the Tories, doesn’t want all the bother of having to negotiate with the EU and wants to come to power in the chaos unleashed by such an exit with all the blame falling on the Tories.

    And thanks to the ERG loons and their little helpers, he may well get his wish.

    The ERG want a clean Brexit. If it happens they're not loons.

    If no deal happens then every single one of the over 400 MPs who rejected the deal is responsible. If they also opposed no deal then they were loons for rejecting the only deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Fenster said:

    Celebrity PM Anecdote Alert

    My six year old daughter pointed at the telly and said 'look Daddy, it's Boris Johnson'.

    On which CBeebies show in particular?
    I see Boris as Dougal in the Magic Roundabout. Gove is Brian the snail.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

    Who runs the country in between?
    The Cabinet.

    (although technically May doesn't resign until she hands in her seal of office at the end of the meeting with the Queen)
    Ah yes, I think you're right on the seal of office - I was wrong earlier.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.

    25% isn't enough when the Conservatives are tallying 42%. It might be enough if the Conservatives are tallying 25%.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    The South of England could be very interesting. There are lots of Tory Remainers who would not vote Corbyn. They could switch to Lib Dem. Nick would be in a good position to know this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Indeed. I worry about Trump far more than Boris.

    God yes. Trump gone next year dwarfs everything in politics. I'd take a No Deal Brexit if it guaranteed me that in return.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    So not only is there likely to be little cricket to watch on Friday but I have a good chance of being melted into the bargain. I blame Boris.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    edited July 2019

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I think this is accurate but only as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader. [...] so Lib Dem hopes rest on Corbyn remaining leader of the Labour party for at least the next couple of years.
    I totally agree, and nearly added that caveat.

    If Labour had a half-decent leader they would probably rocket.
    Sadly (from my anti-statist viewpoint) I think that is certainly true.

    The interesting point here is we are dealing with genuine unknowns in terms of future events/consequences. It is not inconceivable that we could, at the next election, see a massive Tory majority, a massive Labour majority, a clear Lib Dem majority, a narrow BXP majority or simply a massive mess with no one anywhere near a majority.

    All depends on such a complex interweaving of possible outcomes it would make Stephen Strange's 14,000,605 possible futures seem predictable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Just 20 minutes or so until the Borispocalypse.
  • The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    The South of England could be very interesting. There are lots of Tory Remainers who would not vote Corbyn. They could switch to Lib Dem. Nick would be in a good position to know this.
    The key question is what the LDs economic policies will be. If they want to try and overtake Labour then they will need to have quite a hard left economic agenda BUT this is not likely to appeal to Tory remainers in places like Chesham and Amersham.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    I can't see the LDs becoming the largest party but I can see the price for any grand coalition involving the LDs and SNP (plus others) will involve IndyRef2

    If that passes, Swinson has a choice to make - find and win a new seat or depart the scene.

    You can't be party leader when your seat is about to disappear due to Scotland ceasing to be part of the union.

    She has another choice - agree to it after the new government has brought in PR for Westminster.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    CatMan said:

    Absolutely nothing to see here....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    CatMan said:
    There is NO CHANGE in our climate !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    Twats....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I stand by my 12% forecast for the LibDems at a GE.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I think this is accurate but only as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader. [...] so Lib Dem hopes rest on Corbyn remaining leader of the Labour party for at least the next couple of years.
    I totally agree, and nearly added that caveat.

    If Labour had a half-decent leader they would probably rocket.
    Sadly (from my anti-statist viewpoint) I think that is certainly true.

    The interesting point here is we are dealing with genuine unknowns in terms of future events/consequences. It is not inconceivable that we could, at the next election, see a massive Tory majority, a massive Labour majority, a clear Lib Dem majority, a narrow BXP majority or simply a massive mess with no one anywhere near a majority.

    All depends on such a complex interweaving of possible outcomes it would make Stephen Strange's 14,000,605 possible futures seem predictable.
    Massive mess a narrow favourite.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    You can always rely on climate protestors to make it all about themselves. Me me me, the lot of them.

    Which is unfortunate because the good cause in question gets plenty of attention now without such ego boosting stuff, which just makes plenty of others who agree with the broad principle embarrassed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
    Yes, who the heck is in charge? Oh, yes no-one officially. Priti Patel will sort 'em out!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
    I noticed that eco-fascists tried something similar on the Tour de France a few days ago....they didn't last long in the middle of the road! No plod acceptance of the Exhibition Rebellion lot in France.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TOPPING said:

    So my constituency, Ealing Central & Acton, went from a super-marginal to a 14k Lab majority. Plenty of disgruntled remain Cons voters voting Lab as told to me on the doorstep. LDs with 3k (33k for Lab, 19k for Cons [a Boris leaver]).

    Rupa Huq, the Lab MP has recently been involved in an anti-semitism ( https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7118151/Labour-MP-Rupa-Huq-accused-anti-Semitism-former-employee.html ).

    The numbers are big but after a 2017 10k vote switch between the main parties I would have thought that the seat automatically becomes a LibDem target.

    Today's Yougov crossbreaks - for what they are worth - shows Labour comfortably ahead in London again.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    CatMan said:
    There is NO CHANGE in our climate !
    The reason next year’s US election is perhaps the most important ever.

    Interestingly, the ‘green deal’ is the one radical Democratic policy which polls show as supported by a significant majority of the electorate.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    AndyJS said:

    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.

    25% isn't enough when the Conservatives are tallying 42%. It might be enough if the Conservatives are tallying 25%.
    Yes, TBP may be the LibDems greatest allies.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
    Yes, who the heck is in charge? Oh, yes no-one officially. Priti Patel will sort 'em out!
    Yup. She will bring back hanging for that sort of thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
    Yes, who the heck is in charge? Oh, yes no-one officially. Priti Patel will sort 'em out!
    No Home Sec is still in place. As are most of Cabinet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited July 2019
    What’s the point of having armed bodyguards if they don’t shoot soap dodging eco tossers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Cyclefree said:

    Has Boris actually managed to appoint a

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.

    Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?

    If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.

    No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.

    Corbyn has got this one right.
    "Now is not the time"

    A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
    Yeah, yeah: manana, manana, jam tomorrow, excuses, excuses.

    All bullshit, I’m sorry to say.

    He’s not doing it because he wants a No Deal Brexit, wants that to happen under the Tories, doesn’t want all the bother of having to negotiate with the EU and wants to come to power in the chaos unleashed by such an exit with all the blame falling on the Tories.

    And thanks to the ERG loons and their little helpers, he may well get his wish.

    If no deal happens then every single one of the over 400 MPs who rejected the deal is responsible
    Almost. Those who voted against triggering A50, whether we agree with that choice or not, at least did not agree implicitly to no deal. Most MPs did, then moaned about no deal but refused to stop it unless it was in the one way they wanted - which means they don't actually care about stopping no deal, just winning, which is not the same thing.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TM remains PM until her successor is appointed - even after having left the Palace.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    Greenpeace protestors have just blocked the police outriders.

    How on earth the police allowed that to happen.
    Yes, who the heck is in charge? Oh, yes no-one officially. Priti Patel will sort 'em out!
    No Home Sec is still in place. As are most of Cabinet.
    Well they should resign or be sacked. What's that? Oh they are anyways?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Wikipedia has jumped the gun on Boris being PM.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Nigelb said:

    The thing is surely this. Labour aren't going to get any better under Corbyn, are they? They will continue to roll along the bottom.

    So in many ways, the LibDems are unlikely now to slip back.

    It's all down to Boris. If, as most of us on here think, Boris bombs then the beneficiaries of that will be the LibDems and BXP. If Boris pulls off the unexpected then the BXP will tank but I don't think the LibDems would.

    So, regardless of the fact that I'm a LibDem member there are very sound reasons for backing the LibDems to do well.

    I think this is accurate but only as long as Corbyn remains Labour leader. [...] so Lib Dem hopes rest on Corbyn remaining leader of the Labour party for at least the next couple of years.
    I totally agree, and nearly added that caveat.

    If Labour had a half-decent leader they would probably rocket.
    Sadly (from my anti-statist viewpoint) I think that is certainly true.

    The interesting point here is we are dealing with genuine unknowns in terms of future events/consequences. It is not inconceivable that we could, at the next election, see a massive Tory majority, a massive Labour majority, a clear Lib Dem majority, a narrow BXP majority or simply a massive mess with no one anywhere near a majority.

    All depends on such a complex interweaving of possible outcomes it would make Stephen Strange's 14,000,605 possible futures seem predictable.
    Massive mess a narrow favourite.
    Eton mess surely?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    justin124 said:

    TM remains PM until her successor is appointed - even after having left the Palace.

    This has been discussed by the media all day, and there are many viewpoints, but I have not heard TM continues after her resignation from anyone
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    justin124 said:

    TM remains PM until her successor is appointed - even after having left the Palace.

    Source
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair hasn't suspended its next PM after Theresa May market yet.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Absolutely nothing to see here....
    It's all melted?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    I wonder if Queenie is currently telling Boris...don't come back anytime soon....I am off on my summer hols.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    TOPPING said:

    So my constituency, Ealing Central & Acton, went from a super-marginal to a 14k Lab majority. Plenty of disgruntled remain Cons voters voting Lab as told to me on the doorstep. LDs with 3k (33k for Lab, 19k for Cons [a Boris leaver]).

    Rupa Huq, the Lab MP has recently been involved in an anti-semitism ( https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7118151/Labour-MP-Rupa-Huq-accused-anti-Semitism-former-employee.html ).

    The numbers are big but after a 2017 10k vote switch between the main parties I would have thought that the seat automatically becomes a LibDem target.

    There must be some very interesting seats out there where last time the Remain vote coalesced around Labour - I’m particularly thinking of Bristol West which was supposed to be a 4 way marginal and labour got a five figure majority. In those seats if Labour does not come out supporting remain in a real way you could see a huge shift in votes, although hatred of Boris might keep the vote together somewhat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When Edward Heath left the palace in 1974 he was surprised to find that his bodyguard was about to go off in another car. Heath asked where he was going, and was told that since he wasn't PM anymore he wasn't entitled to any personal protection.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    AndyJS said:

    The LDs have to get near 30% to start winning lots of seats. 25% isn't enough, as we saw in 1983 and 2010.

    With the caveat that BXP Ltd taking votes on the right will shift their take-off threshold down a bit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    AndyJS said:

    When Edward Heath left the palace in 1974 he was surprised to find that his bodyguard was about to go off in another car. Heath asked where he was going, and was told that since he wasn't PM anymore he wasn't entitled to any personal protection.

    That is much the narrative Sky have applied to TM and she was not filmed leaving the palace
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    TM remains PM until her successor is appointed - even after having left the Palace.

    Source
    I have come across that information in last 24 hours. Will provide source when I find it.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    AndyJS said:

    When Edward Heath left the palace in 1974 he was surprised to find that his bodyguard was about to go off in another car. Heath asked where he was going, and was told that since he wasn't PM anymore he wasn't entitled to any personal protection.

    That is much the narrative Sky have applied to TM and she was not filmed leaving the palace
    And, of course, there is still a need for a certain level of security for former PMs (and some former Cabinet ministers) but it is at a lower level
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    When Edward Heath left the palace in 1974 he was surprised to find that his bodyguard was about to go off in another car. Heath asked where he was going, and was told that since he wasn't PM anymore he wasn't entitled to any personal protection.

    I understood that former PMs retained police protection for the rest of their lives!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    AndyJS said:

    When Edward Heath left the palace in 1974 he was surprised to find that his bodyguard was about to go off in another car. Heath asked where he was going, and was told that since he wasn't PM anymore he wasn't entitled to any personal protection.

    That is much the narrative Sky have applied to TM and she was not filmed leaving the palace
    And, of course, there is still a need for a certain level of security for former PMs (and some former Cabinet ministers) but it is at a lower level
    I bet security around blair is still incredibly tight.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Nigelb said:

    Just got the fears.

    In half an hour or so Boris will be handed the nuclear codes.

    Even in his more off piste moment, he hasn’t mused about incinerating entire nation, as Trump has a least twice.
    Do you think he'll write two different versions of the letters of last resort for the sub commanders?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited July 2019
    Extinction Rebellion, or Greenpeace, chose their moment well in terms of symbolism.

    Mainly female protestors linking arms, in thin clothes, holding up all the pomp and motorcade aplomb that a state can bear down for its main occasions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Has Boris actually managed to appoint a

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.

    Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?

    If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.

    No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.

    Corbyn has got this one right.
    "Now is not the time"

    A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
    Yeah, yeah: manana, manana, jam tomorrow, excuses, excuses.

    All bullshit, I’m sorry to say.

    He’s not doing it because he wants a No Deal Brexit, wants that to happen under the Tories, doesn’t want all the bother of having to negotiate with the EU and wants to come to power in the chaos unleashed by such an exit with all the blame falling on the Tories.

    And thanks to the ERG loons and their little helpers, he may well get his wish.

    If no deal happens then every single one of the over 400 MPs who rejected the deal is responsible
    Almost. Those who voted against triggering A50, whether we agree with that choice or not, at least did not agree implicitly to no deal. Most MPs did, then moaned about no deal but refused to stop it unless it was in the one way they wanted - which means they don't actually care about stopping no deal, just winning, which is not the same thing.
    That's fair. Though even those MPs knew Article 50 had been triggered and that no deal was the legal default alternative.

    But yes for those MPs who voted to invoke Article 50, rejected the deal and reject no deal there is no excuse.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Brexit Party 119-1 to win Brecon by-election.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    CatMan said:
    And the Tory Party is full of lunatics who think AGW is a myth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I wonder if Queenie is currently telling Boris...don't come back anytime soon....I am off on my summer hols.

    "Cards on the table time Boris - I knew him, and you're not Churchill, so stop aping him. Be your own man".
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Fenster said:

    Celebrity PM Anecdote Alert

    My six year old daughter pointed at the telly and said 'look Daddy, it's Boris Johnson'.

    On which CBeebies show in particular?
    There is a ‘Boris’ mayor on Ben an Holly’s little Kingdom on channel 5 - he’s called Fairy Mayor

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weird/361905/Boris-Johnson-has-new-role-in-Ben-and-Holly-s-Little-Kingdom
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    So good they cannot even spell her name, I do not believe she is into car insurance , more like dodgy car seller
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    AndyJS said:

    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

    Who runs the country in between?

    AndyJS said:

    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

    Who runs the country in between?
    As I said earlier , no-one has been running it for 3 years so an hour or two will make no difference
This discussion has been closed.