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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinton’s party

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinton’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

New YouGov carried out after Johnson win has the LDs the big gainerCon 25% (-)Lab 19% (-2)Lib Dem 23% (+3)Brexit 17% (-2)Green 9% (+1)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    First, like Jo (no Bo)

    Understandable - Johnson hasn't been out of the news; the LD election put them in it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

    Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

    As impressive as May's tenure in Downing Street.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Possible that enough tribal Labour voters stick with them at the next election to deliver Labour 20%, LibDems 20%, Tories 35%.

    Boris might yet crawl from the wreckage as a very fortunate PM.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG63OtsKC7k
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Is this one of those ghost threads? It seems to have disappeared already. Is there something else happening today?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

    Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority

    Making any predictions on seats at these levels is an absolute mugs game. Much would change during the election campaign as support would crystalise for or against certain parties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    You mean like LAB
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Just caught up with the last few minutes of PMQ's ... a tearful Theresa May leaves the chamber as Bercow offers his thanks for her service.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.
    The election in Scotland could easily be very different to that of England and Wales. Indeed, that's been the case in the last two elections.

    It's interesting that Swinson didn't do that much better in 2017 than in 2015. Unlike some seats in Scotland, it was obvious who the anti-SNP candidate was in East Dunbartonshire. It might be tempting for Labour voters in particular to lend their vote to the SNP.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    He's going back to lead the Labour party ?!?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

    It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

    I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

    So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    You mean like LAB
    The mighty OGH beats me to the draw .... :smiley:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    "Labour has been holding secret talks with Tory Remainer rebels over working together to collapse Boris Johnson's government within weeks if he attempts a No Deal Brexit, a shadow minister claimed today.

    Barry Gardiner said that the opposition had been discussing the 'nuclear option' of supporting a no confidence vote in Mr Johnson's Brexiteer administration."
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    JackW said:

    Just caught up with the last few minutes of PMQ's ... a tearful Theresa May leaves the chamber as Bercow offers his thanks for her service.

    Thanks that he has managed to see the back of her more like. Respect can be there even when people dislike one another but while expected we know many of the statements today are wholly insincere.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    It would be interesting to see odds on 'Last PM of the UK' and 'First PM of England'.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

    It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

    I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

    So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

    Are we doing Gormenghast roleplay? Why is this even a discussion?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/Aggerscricket/status/1154000404004446208

    The England cricket team would like to apologise to all who thought that they were a great side.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    tlg86 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.
    The election in Scotland could easily be very different to that of England and Wales. Indeed, that's been the case in the last two elections.

    It's interesting that Swinson didn't do that much better in 2017 than in 2015. Unlike some seats in Scotland, it was obvious who the anti-SNP candidate was in East Dunbartonshire. It might be tempting for Labour voters in particular to lend their vote to the SNP.
    You bet on it if you like... I'll pass!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

    You do not seem to have any sense of proportion
    I disagree with you. Don't you care about traditions in places like the House of Commons?
    A standing ovation for a PM's final PMQs is now a tradition in the House of Commons though. A relatively new tradition but it is a tradition now nonetheless.
    Well I think it's wrong.
    Well tough. First you cared about tradition but now you see the tradition is not what you thought you change your rationale and now dont care about tradition.

    I dont think they should generally clap, I like the odd little traditions of the house, but it is not out of order under the rules as like most British conventions its flexible.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

    Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority

    Making any predictions on seats at these levels is an absolute mugs game. Much would change during the election campaign as support would crystalise for or against certain parties.
    Indeed. Trends are your friends, but the awful postal vote muddies the water as it crystalises too early.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    MikeSmithson said:

    You mean like LAB

    :smile:

    I'm going by seats currently held rather than speculative future scenarios.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    https://twitter.com/surbiton19/status/1154003208488005632
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
    No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

    Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    OblitusSumMe said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    It's a dangerous situation for Labour if the main party battle comes to be seen as Con vs LD.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    JackW said:

    He's going back to lead the Labour party ?!?

    :smile:

    He's more likely to be Con leader one day.

    In fact ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    OblitusSumMe said:

    We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

    Yep.

    Because power in this country is ALWAYS won by winning the centre ground. Sorry for the shouty bit but it's true. If you don't reach out to the centre, you won't win.

    Which leaves Johnson hamstrung. I actually think part of him is One Nation leaning but he's gone and pitched to the Brexit loons on the far right.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

    It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

    I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

    So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

    Erskine May's injunction about not making noise is long lost to orchestrated barracking by all sides during PMQs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
    No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

    Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
    Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?

    The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.

    I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited July 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
    At the last election the Lib Dems gained Bath on a swing of 10% and lost Leeds North West on a swing of 8%.

    I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I was on the winning side of bets on those two seats at the last election. Do not rule out more swings and counter swings next time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    West Indies all out 25 v Ireland.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17282/scorecard/301112/ireland-vs-west-indians-west-indies-tour-of-england-and-ireland-1969
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1154005372753129474
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited July 2019
    A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
    It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

    They finally heard that Boris is becoming PM today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Not a great start for Boris. May won the CWC!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1154006316471508993
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1154003729634476032

    Remain or leave or just bloody incontinent?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:

    I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

    When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it. If I remember correctly, only Survation was the "outlier" until YouGov's 50000 came in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT Mueller on telly.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-49078559
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton19 said:

    justin124 said:

    I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

    When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it.
    But the shift occurred right at the beginning of that 7 week campaign. 'Herding' is more likely in the final days leading up to Polling Day.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    "What they cease to highlight is that for the vast majority of its existence YouGov’s president, was Peter Kellner who is was married to a Labour peer and is himself a long standing LAB backer" - I'm pretty sure he's not a Corbyn backer though.

    Whether you believe yougov bias or not, it's fair to believe many within Labour currently want their own party to fail.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    btw I know Tilda is a fantastic actress but I'm not sure she has entered politics formally?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    tlg86 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
    At the last election the Lib Dems gained Bath on a swing of 10% and lost Leeds North West on a swing of 8%.

    I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I was on the winning side of bets on those two seats at the last election. Do not rule out more swings and counter swings next time.
    But the Lib Dems were treading water in national share at that election (indeed, down a shade in vote share). Your point is premised on the Lib Dems doing "really well" nationally.

    Even with significant differential swings (which I accept are possible) it's really hard to lose a pretty healthy majority against that backdrop.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    surbiton19 said:

    AndyJS said:

    England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

    They finally heard that Boris is becoming PM today.
    We don't have to play Ireland in person. The game can be held away from the pitch, with average player scores used instead but with the odd check of a player against a bowler on a risk assessed basis. This Trusted Player system could be in place this afternoon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

    You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton19 said:

    justin124 said:

    I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

    When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it. If I remember correctly, only Survation was the "outlier" until YouGov's 50000 came in.
    If you care to look at the Polling Tables from Summer 2016 to June 2017, I suspect you will see what I am referring to.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    This is so good:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1154000762499928064?s=20

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

    You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
    all it takes is the Tories to not campaign and Swinson is probably a gonner. Which is one reason they should have picked Davey who has zero chance of losing his seat.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

    Three catches by the backstop too.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,434
    TOPPING said:

    btw I know Tilda is a fantastic actress but I'm not sure she has entered politics formally?

    If even arch LDer OGH can't remember her name she's got no chance.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

    You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
    When the day comes, it will be interesting to see how Shadsy prices Swinson and Johnson in their respective seats. Right this minute I would say she would be the more likely of the two to hold, but much is likely to change all that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone think Boris Johnson will last longer than 3 years as PM?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
    Well Jezza certainly wouldn't be a 'centre-left' PM!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Boris Johnson will last longer than 3 years as PM?

    Years or months?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

    You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
    When the day comes, it will be interesting to see how Shadsy prices Swinson and Johnson in their respective seats. Right this minute I would say she would be the more likely of the two to hold, but much is likely to change all that.
    The benefit for Johnson is his main opposition are a Labour party that wont as perform as well as in 2017, the problem for Swinson is she faces an SNP that will probably perform better than 2017. She should be favourite to hold but could easily be decapitated.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

    Three catches by the backstop too.

    Murtagh is English in fairness
  • Martin_KinsellaMartin_Kinsella Posts: 444
    Mysticrose said:

    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.

    Nurse, nurse, they're awake.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The crossbreaks on the Yougov poll surprise a bit - given the headline figures - in that Labour appears to have a clear lead in London for the first time since the EU election.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mysticrose said:

    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.

    The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Brom said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

    Three catches by the backstop too.

    Murtagh is English in fairness
    But he plays for the EU.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 3 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    Has BoJo resigned already?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    surbiton19 said:

    Brom said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

    Three catches by the backstop too.

    Murtagh is English in fairness
    But he plays for the EU.
    I hasten to add in cricket Ireland also represents Ulster, so that isn't entirely true either.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 3 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    Has BoJo resigned already????
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
    Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

    But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
    No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

    Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
    Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?

    The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.

    I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
    I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.


    The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1153628285215137792
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    For LOTOs success is winning general elections.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brom said:

    Mysticrose said:

    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.

    The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland
    Of course of course but I think it's interesting because people seem to be really waking up to the LibDem surge.

    I think Jo Swinson is fabulous. Underestimate this lady at your peril.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mysticrose said:

    Brom said:

    Mysticrose said:

    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.

    The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland
    Of course of course but I think it's interesting because people seem to be really waking up to the LibDem surge.

    I think Jo Swinson is fabulous. Underestimate this lady at your peril.
    If it propels the Tories into power and keeps Labour out I'm sure plenty on this forum will be thanking her. We're all watching closely to see how she copes when the spotlight falls on her, should be interesting either way.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Brom said:

    Mysticrose said:

    The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

    Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

    LibDems are surging.

    The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland
    On the one hand the SNP are looking a little shopsoiled, but on the other hand should again poll well in Scotland at a GE. I would expect them to take some SLAB and SCON seats, but SLD less likely. The SLD will be the pro Union vote at both UK and European level.

    I am not sure that any LD has ever had a truly safe seat, but it was one reason that I went for Davey. Swinson should hold her seat, but doing so may limit her national campaigning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Mysticrose said:

    This is so good:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1154000762499928064?s=20

    That was a good exchange.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Brom said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

    You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
    all it takes is the Tories to not campaign and Swinson is probably a gonner. Which is one reason they should have picked Davey who has zero chance of losing his seat.
    The Tory vote increased by 13.7% Scotland wide but only 6% in Swinson's seat. Given the LDs decreased 0.8% but Jo received a 4% bump I'd say there were extra "broad unionists" that came out to vote, and would have voted Tory in another seat but tactically voted for Jo.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Stereotomy said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

    It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

    I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

    So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

    Are we doing Gormenghast roleplay? Why is this even a discussion?
    If you want inappropriate clapping, see the response to Lord Spencer's toe-curling speech at Di's funeral. Nothing else comes close.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2019
    Sky News - Rory Stewart and David Gauke resign
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    numbertwelve said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

    Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
    On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
    It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...
    Agreed, but the difference this time is the presence of the Brexit Party and with four and a half parties being in contention*.
    Both Labour and Tory and Remainers and Leavers have alternatives to go to. This is why I think that anthing could happen in a GE. I suspect that just plugging the percentages into the usual forcasting sites will be less accurate than in the past.

    * If LibDem/Green can combine to get 28% that really would be a game changer. As would Tory/Brexit - but I suspect that would be a more difficult pairing and could lose the Tories a large slice of support.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    For LOTOs success is winning general elections.
    When Scotland has already been lost to the extent you can't win a majority?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

    ... making the most of his time there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Will the PM reply to the Hammond and Stewart resignations ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    For LOTOs success is winning general elections.
    When Scotland has already been lost to the extent you can't win a majority?
    But he can win a general election and not win a majority.

    He doesn't need to win a majority to become Prime Minister.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

    A sensible precaution. Too often Remoaner snappers use trick photography to make Boris's hair look thin and unkempt, his tie askew and shirt untucked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

    Is it? Didn't Cameron also have a personal photographer?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1154006316471508993

    The Embankment Cycle Superhighway is safe.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    williamglenn said:

    A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.

    It was. Harman usually does show solidarity with other women in public life.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Will the PM reply to the Hammond and Stewart resignations ?

    Yes.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

    https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1153628285215137792
    ... don't they want him to be someting other than Leader of the Opposition?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Mysticrose said:


    Because power in this country is ALWAYS won by winning the centre ground. Sorry for the shouty bit but it's true. If you don't reach out to the centre, you won't win.

    Isn't power in this country won by going to the right school and university, and sucking up to the oligarchical press?

    Under FPTP the "centre" might be over-rated now. Not when there is minority bashing to be done.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

    Who runs the country in between?
This discussion has been closed.