It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.
But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.
Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?
The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.
I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.
The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind
We'd quite forgotten, HYUFD, so thanks for the reminder.
I'm happy predicting you'll be wrong about your Chuka...
It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.
But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.
Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?
The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.
I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.
The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind
We'd quite forgotten, HYUFD, so thanks for the reminder.
I'm happy predicting you'll be wrong about your Chuka...
Before HYUFD is consumed by self-congratulations and others misplacing them can we just clear this one up?
HYUFD predicted Boris' victory because he knows the mindset of the hard right tories and Brexiteers. The tiny fraction of tory Members who were entitled to go through with this leadership election. Nothing more.
I see no evidence of the same knowledge reaching across to the LibDems or the mainstream of British political life.
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...
Agreed, but the difference this time is the presence of the Brexit Party and with four and a half parties being in contention*. Both Labour and Tory and Remainers and Leavers have alternatives to go to. This is why I think that anthing could happen in a GE. I suspect that just plugging the percentages into the usual forcasting sites will be less accurate than in the past.
* If LibDem/Green can combine to get 28% that really would be a game changer. As would Tory/Brexit - but I suspect that would be a more difficult pairing and could lose the Tories a large slice of support.
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...
Agreed, but the difference this time is the presence of the Brexit Party and with four and a half parties being in contention*. Both Labour and Tory and Remainers and Leavers have alternatives to go to. This is why I think that anthing could happen in a GE. I suspect that just plugging the percentages into the usual forcasting sites will be less accurate than in the past.
* If LibDem/Green can combine to get 28% that really would be a game changer. As would Tory/Brexit - but I suspect that would be a more difficult pairing and could lose the Tories a large slice of support.
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?
On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour
It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...
Agreed, but the difference this time is the presence of the Brexit Party and with four and a half parties being in contention*. Both Labour and Tory and Remainers and Leavers have alternatives to go to. This is why I think that anthing could happen in a GE. I suspect that just plugging the percentages into the usual forcasting sites will be less accurate than in the past.
* If LibDem/Green can combine to get 28% that really would be a game changer. As would Tory/Brexit - but I suspect that would be a more difficult pairing and could lose the Tories a large slice of support.
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
They are keeping the 'I'm mad as hell, and I aint gonna take it anymore' vote. General inchoate anger about elites and politicians and media and why can't we live in the 1950s again.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
I was chatting about this at a recent regimental do. We remarked upon how ex-HMF folk are put into ministerial roles and the absurdity of spending a few years as a platoon (or in Wallace's case, Company) commander and thinking that qualifies you to run a government department.
It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.
But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.
Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?
The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.
I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.
The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind
We'd quite forgotten, HYUFD, so thanks for the reminder.
I'm happy predicting you'll be wrong about your Chuka...
Before HYUFD is consumed by self-congratulations and others misplacing them can we just clear this one up?
HYUFD predicted Boris' victory because he knows the mindset of the hard right tories and Brexiteers. The tiny fraction of tory Members who were entitled to go through with this leadership election. Nothing more.
I see no evidence of the same knowledge reaching across to the LibDems or the mainstream of British political life.
A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.
It was. Harman usually does show solidarity with other women in public life.
Cooper visibly cringed when May threw at her the if you're so worried why didn't you vote for the WA line.
Absolubte undiluted Labour tribalism is the answer to most questions on why didn't x Labour Mp vote for the WA.
I'll go on, Lisa Nandy and @Rochdale_Pioneers have no idea if they're leave or remain but they know they're Labourites forever. The 17% planning to vote Labour at the next GE right now, they're basically @HYUFD in red form. The Brexit fence is a great place to be if you're a Labour die hard. In fact it's the only place to be Tories BAD Labour GOOD.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Oh I see. In which case I really want to see a PM leave Number 10, resign, the Queen send for someone else, who then refuses the appointment, so the Queen has to call the old PM back to the palace to ‘reappoint’ them and they then have to go back to Number 10....
Given the lunacy that has enveloped our politics, surely that has to happen at some point!
I was chatting about this at a recent regimental do. We remarked upon how ex-HMF folk are put into ministerial roles and the absurdity of spending a few years as a platoon (or in Wallace's case, Company) commander and thinking that qualifies you to run a government department.
(Ans: it doesn't, cf IDS.)
Its probably better prep than being a journalist though.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Rubbish. Everyone knows Larry runs the country for an hour once every two or three years when we change PM. How do you think all those mouse entrapment orders keep appearing on the order paper.
I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.
You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?
all it takes is the Tories to not campaign and Swinson is probably a gonner. Which is one reason they should have picked Davey who has zero chance of losing his seat.
Jo Swinson has gained votes, in absolute terms, in every election she's stood in. This has been during a period when the LibDems have lost votes nationally. Indeed since 2010 nationally, they've lost 3/4 of their vote, while she's increased her tally by more than a third.
In Scotland in the Euros, the LibDems more than doubled their absolute number of votes.
So, sure, she might lose to the SNP. They are, after all, up on 2017. But Swinson is a good campaigner, leaders tend to get a boost, and the mood music has improved for the LibDems.
I offered HYUFD 3-1 on the SNP. I'd offer you the same.
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
The cabinet would nominate someone. And, to anticipate your next question, existing ministers remain in office until they are replaced or resign, so there would be a cabinet, although Hammond, Rory, Gauke and now Lidington wouldn't be in it.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
The queen entertained Churchill at a similiar gathering around seventy years ago ; now she'll have to smile politely as a much younger and more 'enthusiastic" character who also thinks he's Churchill, comes through.
This string of resignations are another warning shot to Johnson. He may have suckered up to the hard right but he's about to find that if he goes down that path he'll come to a sticky end. As opposed to his normal position of his own end being sticky.
Largely sorry to see Hammond go - but hopefully the new Chancellor won't have such a tin ear to the damaging & inefficient tax that is the tapered Annual Allowance - worst than Brown's previous effort that lasted for so short a time!
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
Depends who he appoints as either De Jure or De Facto deputy PM. If he passes before he's made those appointments then I have no idea. The Tories don't have a solid deputy post - Tom Watson would obviously be the man before or aft a Corbyn Gov't.
That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
My theory is Labour don’t want an election. The reason they have repeatedly stated they want an election is so that they don’t need to have a proper Brexit policy. They have had numerous chances to have a VONC and yesterday today would be the perfect time in order to maximise the anti Brexit support. They have not done it as the Leadership don’t won’t to prevent Brexit. They seem to think left of centre voters will flock back once Brexit is done. I’m not sure they will pul pro remain people back.
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
Cabinet - as it exists - would meet to select a new interim leader in order to provide continuity I believe
So given there is “always a PM” who is PM between the moment of death of the ex-PM and the time HM appoints the cabinet’s recommendation? It can’t be the previous PM in that instance given they are, sadly, dead.
We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
So given there is “always a PM” who is PM between the moment of death of the ex-PM and the time HM appoints the cabinet’s recommendation? It can’t be the previous PM in that instance given they are, sadly, dead..
Perhaps having a PM who is temporarily dead is not seen as an insuperable constitutional obstacle.
That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
Cabinet - as it exists - would meet to select a new interim leader in order to provide continuity I believe
So given there is “always a PM” who is PM between the moment of death of the ex-PM and the time HM appoints the cabinet’s recommendation? It can’t be the previous PM in that instance given they are, sadly, dead.
My head hurts...
The last time a PM died in office was in 1865 (Palmerston) - so it hasn't been a process that is regularly tested in modern times.
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
The Queen would call on someone who she believed (obviously based on advice from officials) would be able to form a government commanding the majority of the House.
In practice, there would be a pretty quick meeting of the 1922 to establish if someone (possibly Hunt) could be chosen by acclamation and, if not, they may well look to a technocrat caretaker (possibly May, possibly not). I don't think it's absolutely required to have a PM but, given both the EU and Iranian situations, I suspect they'd not want to leave the post vacant.
That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.
Corbyn has got this one right.
"Now is not the time"
A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
The queen entertained Churchill at a similiar gathering around seventy years ago ; now she'll have to smile politely as a much younger and more 'enthusiastic" character who also thinks he's Churchill, comes through.
Plenty of characters who thought they were Churchill were in the same wards as those who thought they were Napoleon.
One interesting and largely unremarked polling finding is this. In a POST Brexit election, 14% would still vote BXP. What else in their manifesto is so appealing?
A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.
It was. Harman usually does show solidarity with other women in public life.
Cooper visibly cringed when May threw at her the if you're so worried why didn't you vote for the WA line.
Absolubte undiluted Labour tribalism is the answer to most questions on why didn't x Labour Mp vote for the WA.
I'll go on, Lisa Nandy and @Rochdale_Pioneers have no idea if they're leave or remain but they know they're Labourites forever. The 17% planning to vote Labour at the next GE right now, they're basically @HYUFD in red form. The Brexit fence is a great place to be if you're a Labour die hard. In fact it's the only place to be Tories BAD Labour GOOD.
I was leave for a brief time, persuaded that as I could see the country going for it anyway we may as well negotiate a sane exit to EEA. Now that such sanity is dead I am stridently remain and mea culpa mea maxima culpa.
As for Labour forever, depends on what you mean by Labour. Am I defecting to the LibDems? No. Am I joining the Watsonite split when it happens? Yes.
We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.
Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP
Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.
But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.
No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.
Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories
Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?
The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.
I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.
I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.
The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind
We'd quite forgotten, HYUFD, so thanks for the reminder.
I'm happy predicting you'll be wrong about your Chuka...
As he was about JRM, Farage, and Bozo in a dozen prior scenarios...
Boris should extend for a year and say we finally now have a Brexiteer Cabinet and we will get the deal we should have got.
Too late now though.
Indeed. He was winning anyway he didn't need to be overly specific on the deadline when it night not be achievable. It only makes sense if the plan was always to fail and go for a GE.
The resignations do play into the narrative they were not committed brexiteers
In hindsight it would have been better if the brexiteers had been in office from the beginning and would now own the problem outright
Brexiteers, indeed, should be committed.
In any case we seem already to have forgotten that May maintained a careful balance between Brexiters and Remainers in both Cabinet proper and the now-defunct Brexit committee.
All such, regardless of how they had campaigned, accepted the ambition of the government to execute the results of the referendum and to Leave the EU.
It’s just that, in general, the Brexiters turned out to be incompetent, petulant, mad, and unwilling to compromise with reality.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
The queen entertained Churchill at a similiar gathering around seventy years ago ; now she'll have to smile politely as a much younger and more 'enthusiastic" character who also thinks he's Churchill, comes through.
Plenty of characters who thought they were Churchill were in the same wards as those who thought they were Napoleon.
"Mr. Johnson, Winston Churchill was my first Prime Minister, I knew Winston Churchill, Winston Churchill was a friend of mine, and you, Boris, are no Winston Churchill"
Re Ipsos. Just produced polling in Canada and they are on their own having Cons 7 points clear whilst all the other polls have Liberals in the lead between1 and 3%
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
The queen entertained Churchill at a similiar gathering around seventy years ago ; now she'll have to smile politely as a much younger and more 'enthusiastic" character who also thinks he's Churchill, comes through.
Plenty of characters who thought they were Churchill were in the same wards as those who thought they were Napoleon.
"Mr. Johnson, Winston Churchill was my first Prime Minister, I knew Winston Churchill, Winston Churchill was a friend of mine, and you, Boris, are no Winston Churchill"
That useless twonk, Corbyn, is asking us all to join in a rally tomorrow asking for .....drum roll ..... a General Election.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
No I think on this Corbyn is absolutely right. This has been discussed widely across the opposition. Timing is everything. If the VONC falls, as it likely tomorrow, it will fortify Boris for the summer. It will be much better to leave the fool (Boris that is, not Corbyn) to start making plenty of errors and enemies through the rest of the summer and then hit him hard in early September when minds will be very focused on the looming exit date.
Corbyn has got this one right.
"Now is not the time"
A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
Yeah, yeah: manana, manana, jam tomorrow, excuses, excuses.
All bullshit, I’m sorry to say.
He’s not doing it because he wants a No Deal Brexit, wants that to happen under the Tories, doesn’t want all the bother of having to negotiate with the EU and wants to come to power in the chaos unleashed by such an exit with all the blame falling on the Tories.
And thanks to the ERG loons and their little helpers, he may well get his wish.
Re Ipsos. Just produced polling in Canada and they are on their own having Cons 7 points clear whilst all the other polls have Liberals in the lead between1 and 3%
Not strictly true. Angus Reid has an 8 point Tory lead, whilst 2 other polls in early July have them in front by a point. Although most polls have the Liberals ahead.
Engaging in a bit of constitutional geekery, presumably in theory the Crown has not delegated its executive authority to the head of government in that time period, so the Crown is ‘running’ the country (de jure).
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
No, that's not how it works. The outgoing PM goes to see Her Maj and submits her resignation. That resignation doesn't take effect until the new PM is graciously appointed by Her Maj. So Theresa May remains PM until Boris turns up at the palace.
Obvs. Not even sure why this is a question. There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
The queen entertained Churchill at a similiar gathering around seventy years ago ; now she'll have to smile politely as a much younger and more 'enthusiastic" character who also thinks he's Churchill, comes through.
Plenty of characters who thought they were Churchill were in the same wards as those who thought they were Napoleon.
"Mr. Johnson, Winston Churchill was my first Prime Minister, I knew Winston Churchill, Winston Churchill was a friend of mine, and you, Boris, are no Winston Churchill"
Boris Johnson may think he is Winston Churchill, but sadly he might be more like a former MP for Stretford not Epping.
We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).
For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
I think we are seeing a move away from labour to the lib dems that may be irreversible.
TM today at PMQ's accused Yvette Cooper of facilitating no deal and you do have to wonder when the brexit story is told in years to come that the tribal instincts of labour mps prevented a sensible brexit and by default contributed to the decline in labour as the main opposition party as the Lib Dems stepped upto the plate for remainers
We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).
For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
If there was decent clear water between LD and Labour popular vote share, even if Labour got more seats, there might be a decent case for a Swinson premiership.
A more difficult question. If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
Cabinet - as it exists - would meet to select a new interim leader in order to provide continuity I believe
So given there is “always a PM” who is PM between the moment of death of the ex-PM and the time HM appoints the cabinet’s recommendation? It can’t be the previous PM in that instance given they are, sadly, dead.
My head hurts...
The last time a PM died in office was in 1865 (Palmerston) - so it hasn't been a process that is regularly tested in modern times.
We would cope without a PM for a few hours.
Although Palmerston was rumoured to have had a heart attack on top of a maid on the snooker table. So, for Boris, it is rather less unlikely than for several other PMs.
We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?
From recent statements they aren't worried about LDs or TBP. It is all about beating Corbyn. Would be ironic if Bozza pulled that off, only to find he finished third.
If they can beat Corbyn, then Swinson could be PM. It’s not so far fetched.
My suspicion is that even a stellar LD vote total, in excess of Lab, will leave them well short in seats. Any deal with Lab would almost certainly see a Lab PM in that circumstance (although I'm not convinced it would be Corbyn unless he was very close to a majority).
For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
If Swinson becomes LOTO then its not unfeasible that she retains the leadership and wins the General Election after next.
Comments
I'm happy predicting you'll be wrong about your Chuka...
HYUFD predicted Boris' victory because he knows the mindset of the hard right tories and Brexiteers. The tiny fraction of tory Members who were entitled to go through with this leadership election. Nothing more.
I see no evidence of the same knowledge reaching across to the LibDems or the mainstream of British political life.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1148555274879414273?s=19
Lib Dem 23% (+3)
Or Brenda, basically. Wish she’d do something interesting like revoke article 50 or something.
(Ans: it doesn't, cf IDS.)
"WHAT A NOB"
The 17% planning to vote Labour at the next GE right now, they're basically @HYUFD in red form.
The Brexit fence is a great place to be if you're a Labour die hard. In fact it's the only place to be Tories BAD Labour GOOD.
Not even sure why this is a question.
There is surely always a PM, unless PBers can think of any historic occasions when this has not been the case?
Hence my advice.
All hypothetical beyond even normal polls, but odd nonetheless.
Why the fuck doesn’t he just table a VoNC?
If Boris did go for a GE, I don’t even think he would demand an extension of Art. 50 as the price for it.
Given the lunacy that has enveloped our politics, surely that has to happen at some point!
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/the-privatisation-of-qinetiq/
In Scotland in the Euros, the LibDems more than doubled their absolute number of votes.
So, sure, she might lose to the SNP. They are, after all, up on 2017. But Swinson is a good campaigner, leaders tend to get a boost, and the mood music has improved for the LibDems.
I offered HYUFD 3-1 on the SNP. I'd offer you the same.
If Boris Johnson were to die in his bed tonight, who becomes PM, or rather, who heads the Executive?
In past I believe the convention was that it would be the Home Sec. but not sure it has ever been tested in recent times.
So if Boris passes away in the heat then probably Home Sec will take over temporarily.
https://twitter.com/DLidington/status/1154017686843793408
Too late now though.
My head hurts...
In hindsight it would have been better if the brexiteers had been in office from the beginning and would now own the problem outright
Corbyn has got this one right.
We would cope without a PM for a few hours.
In practice, there would be a pretty quick meeting of the 1922 to establish if someone (possibly Hunt) could be chosen by acclamation and, if not, they may well look to a technocrat caretaker (possibly May, possibly not). I don't think it's absolutely required to have a PM but, given both the EU and Iranian situations, I suspect they'd not want to leave the post vacant.
A common theme for May, her enemies, Corbyn, his enemies, and Boris and his opposition and enemies too I expect.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1153988778563911682?s=20
As for Labour forever, depends on what you mean by Labour. Am I defecting to the LibDems? No. Am I joining the Watsonite split when it happens? Yes.
Next!
In any case we seem already to have forgotten that May maintained a careful balance between Brexiters and Remainers in both Cabinet proper and the now-defunct Brexit committee.
All such, regardless of how they had campaigned, accepted the ambition of the government to execute the results of the referendum and to Leave the EU.
It’s just that, in general, the Brexiters turned out to be incompetent, petulant, mad, and unwilling to compromise with reality.
Let us not rewrite history.
So thanks, Michael Gove. Thanks a fucking bunch.
All bullshit, I’m sorry to say.
He’s not doing it because he wants a No Deal Brexit, wants that to happen under the Tories, doesn’t want all the bother of having to negotiate with the EU and wants to come to power in the chaos unleashed by such an exit with all the blame falling on the Tories.
And thanks to the ERG loons and their little helpers, he may well get his wish.
Con 1.96
Lab 2.96
LD 11
Other 11
Although most polls have the Liberals ahead.
For Swinson to be PM, I'd imagine she needs to lead the largest party in a coalition. I don't see the maths of LD/SNP/PC/Green having a majority.. so she'd have to win more seats than Lab.
TM today at PMQ's accused Yvette Cooper of facilitating no deal and you do have to wonder when the brexit story is told in years to come that the tribal instincts of labour mps prevented a sensible brexit and by default contributed to the decline in labour as the main opposition party as the Lib Dems stepped upto the plate for remainers
But no - she's always been 'Coop' to me.
So, for Boris, it is rather less unlikely than for several other PMs.