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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest

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  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    So will Hammond resign tomorrow or on Wednesday?

    Following Cyclefree's excellent article I think Hammond stays in post to ensure a smooth, orderly handover to Johnson's pick, and stands in Downing Street solidarity with his PM.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    Why vote for the Lib Dems then? They're the ones who wanted a leave or remain referendum before even Cameron.
    It's 2019.
    Yes, less than a decade since the Lib Dems were campaigning on a manifesto of holding an EU referendum and banging on about tuition fees.
    Less than a decade since the Tories were campaigning on a manifesto of “the big society” and wanting to stop banging on about Europe.
    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Streeter said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    Well he certainly doesn’t have time to do any other paid work, he squats on here 24/7.
    Maybe he's a lawyer and is posting here while billing his time to someone else :wink:
    Lawyers tend to be good with language, don’t they? So that’ll be a no then.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Unlike, say, The Brexit Party. Or the Tory Party even.
    I am perfectly happy to dismiss the Brexit Party as a single issue Party. And the current Tory party as a basket case that has forgotten what being a “party of government” under PR requires. When I am talking about the “ the danger” for the Lib Dem’s I am genuinely talking about them aspiring to be a party of Govt. why restrict your ambitions to preventing Brexit when there is such a gaping hole opening up as offering a sane alternative as a party of govt?
    I guess cos, well, at the moment it is working just fine. I wonder if they are putting in any work on a wider manifesto though? At the moment, Labour has policies not about Brexit. Whereas the other 3 parties seemingly have no policies other than Brexit, and would need to produce some pretty sharpish.
    Which is why a snap election is so dangerous for the government. See 2017.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:


    Though the New Zealand Conservatives, the Nationals, won more seats than Ardern's Labour Party in the last election but as they failed to win a majority Ardern ended up doing a Deal with New Zealand First, the New Zealand version of the Brexit Party.

    Cannot see Swinson following suit

    You've really become humourless and boring since you sold your soul to Boris.

    Of course, like all analogies it doesn't stand up to close inspection.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Streeter said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    Well he certainly doesn’t have time to do any other paid work, he squats on here 24/7.
    Maybe he's a lawyer and is posting here while billing his time to someone else :wink:
    It does seem that many of the most prolific posters on here are well-remunerated lawyers.

    When they actually do the lawyerly work for which they are richly remunerated is a bit of a mystery.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Could be 37 degrees on Thursday. Not looking forward to it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    There has to be a good chance that Jo Swinson's successor is not even in the Commons yet. Lib Dems don't usually let little matters such as losing elections affect the standing of their leaders. She may well be there for over a decade.

    Swinson may well lose her seat to the SNP at the next general election, especially if Tories stop tactically voting for her, in which case the LDs will be looking for a new leader even if they make gains in England
    The same could be said of BJ. if the new boundaries had been in place he'd have a seat where he didn't have a majority. He could easily lose the seat with a concerted effort by Labour
    Hillingdon containing Uxbridge voted Leave and unless Corbyn wins an overall majority which he is miles from at the moment Boris will hold his seat.

    Swinson's seat though is largely reliant on Tories tactically voting LD to stop the SNP though so much more vulnerable at the moment
    But the scottish tories still have their 'anti-snp' asset of Ruth Davidson. They did significantly better in scotland because of her and the anti SNP vote will still break for the LibDems in her seat.
    In 2017 the Tories vote was up 14% across Scotland on 2015 but only 6% in East Dunbartonshire due to Tories tactically voting for Swinson
    How do you know that they were tactically voting, rather than pro-Remain, pro-Union converts to the Lib Dem cause? Is the view from Essex that clear?
    As the majority of Scottish Tories voted Leave, as the Brexit Party beating the Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections proved
  • 42 degrees in Paris.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Unlike, say, The Brexit Party. Or the Tory Party even.
    I am perfectly happy to dismiss the Brexit Party as a single issue Party. And the current Tory party as a basket case that has forgotten what being a “party of government” under FPTP requires. When I am talking about the “ the danger” for the Lib Dem’s I am genuinely talking about them aspiring to be a party of Govt. why restrict your ambitions to preventing Brexit when there is such a gaping hole opening up as offering a sane alternative as a party of govt?
    I agree.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    Could be 37 degrees on Thursday. Not looking forward to it.

    There's a possibility Thursday might break the UK heat record.

    I remember the day that record was set. It is the only time British weather has given me an intense and discomfiting headache - rather than just pissing me off, being wanky and irritating etc etc

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    I voted Remain as I thought it was the best option as was with the opt outs available.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards I would have voted Leave.

    However the voters voted Leave and I respect their decision
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    So will Hammond resign tomorrow or on Wednesday?

    Following Cyclefree's excellent article I think Hammond stays in post to ensure a smooth, orderly handover to Johnson's pick, and stands in Downing Street solidarity with his PM.
    He said yesterday he was resigning straight after PMQs this Wednesday.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two different moral approaches, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Zephyr said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Since I have told you repeatedly what my views are and you insist on ignoring what I write, quite clearly, there is very little point in engaging with you.

    You and those you support are quite prepared for others to suffer. It is utterly contemptible.

    And HYUFD and myself are in the same party would you believe but for how long is debatable
    You have joined the Brexit Party?
    Not in a million years
    Then I doubt you and he are in the same party. Mentally, he appears to have moved considerably towards the fringe :)
    He has but there are many of us defending the moderate approach. (TM deal was ok)

    A no deal exit cuts that umbilical cord
    But it doesn’t stay no deal does it? It moves on from no deal to a deal not dissimilar to hard brexit, surely? So the main difference between no deal and hard brexit is a couple of months extra chaos (to a degree to be argued over) before both options result in pretty much the same destination?

    Explain why I have this wrong, because all those, and I can name you, who big up no deal are in fact making hard brexit deal sound like a compromise, when actually the destination is the same.
    Hang on.

    I do not big up no deal, I am appalled at the economic armageddon it would cause

    My position has always been TM deal or similar
    Armageddon - "a dramatic and catastrophic conflict, especially one seen as likely to destroy the world or the human race."

    Those ERGers they are the extremists.
    Don't be such a prissy tosser - I doubt there's any poster* on here who doesn't recognise that Big_G is using armageddon colloquially to 'mean a major disaster'.

    (*Apart from the Russian bot 'posters' maybe.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    John Major and Tony Blair voting LD at the next general election?
    It'd tell you all you need to know about the state of both so-called main parties if they're not even broad enough coalitions to attract the votes of their former PMs.
    Mind you Bush Snr voted for Hillary in 2016 so it is not unheard of
    I think you mean Bush junior (actually I think he abstained) and it makes the point beautifully
    No Bush Snr was still alive in 2016 and voted for Hillary
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you opposed the Withdrawal Agreement and oppose No Deal you are a diehard Remainer

    Nope. If you voted remain and supported the WA you are a diehard remainer.
    Nope, as the Withdrawal Agreement by definition took us out of the EU as does No Deal
    The ERG opposed the WA. They know what's what leaver-wise. You are a diehard remainer. Deal with it.
    The ERG did not oppose the WA, not in the end. The majority of the ERG voted for the WA. We know this because while the numbers are not precise there are generally said to be around 70+ MPs in the ERG, and far fewer than that opposed it at MV3, and some of those opposed to the WA were the Grievers.

    So even if the ERG know what is what, leaver-wise, I am afraid you do not. They are not monolithic in view either, and the majority do not take the view you ascribe to them.
    Yeah they do. They are the leaver experts. They opposed the WA. Or did I miss its passing successfully?
    Did you just ignore the entire post? The ERG is comprised of more than those who opposed the WA.

    Unless you are trying to say only those who opposed the WA are true ERGers, which is nonsense, it is simple fact that plenty of ERGers, nay the majority, voted for
    And yet here we are on the brink of an entirely ERG-defined Brexit. So the chaff and diehard remainers fell by the wayside. Great good riddance. We are on the verge of a total victory of the ERG vision.
    It's good to see that the Chairman of the ERG, who voted for the WA, is either chaff or a diehard remainer.

    I do not dispute that the hardest of the hardliners are in the ascendency, nor even that they are likely the most popular faction in the party, but the ERG they provably ain't. It cannot be an ERG defined Brexit when the ERG includes a majority who were content (albeit not happy) to accept a backstop including deal.
    Don't fall off the head of that pin.

    We are at the hardest of hard Brexits. Which was the aim of the ERG all along. Anything else is a compromise from what they really wanted which is what we have now.
    Didn't you repeatedly tell us that May's deal was going to pass ?
    Yep. It still probably will.
    Well I hope it does but if so then we will not be getting the 'hardest of hard Brexits'.
    True and the ERG will be disappointed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Streeter said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    Well he certainly doesn’t have time to do any other paid work, he squats on here 24/7.
    Do I? I don't post much in the morning after 9 30am and I don't post after lunch as I am at work
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    dixiedean said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Unlike, say, The Brexit Party. Or the Tory Party even.
    I am perfectly happy to dismiss the Brexit Party as a single issue Party. And the current Tory party as a basket case that has forgotten what being a “party of government” under PR requires. When I am talking about the “ the danger” for the Lib Dem’s I am genuinely talking about them aspiring to be a party of Govt. why restrict your ambitions to preventing Brexit when there is such a gaping hole opening up as offering a sane alternative as a party of govt?
    I guess cos, well, at the moment it is working just fine. I wonder if they are putting in any work on a wider manifesto though? At the moment, Labour has policies not about Brexit. Whereas the other 3 parties seemingly have no policies other than Brexit, and would need to produce some pretty sharpish.
    Which is why a snap election is so dangerous for the government. See 2017.
    I genuinely think that there is a case that McDonnell is currently the most impressive politician in the U.K. Even though I think many of his plans are bonkers I at least get the impression that he is prepared to moderate/change them to try and make them work. About how many othe leading politicians can that be said?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    Why vote for the Lib Dems then? They're the ones who wanted a leave or remain referendum before even Cameron.
    It's 2019.
    Yes, less than a decade since the Lib Dems were campaigning on a manifesto of holding an EU referendum and banging on about tuition fees.
    Less than a decade since the Tories were campaigning on a manifesto of “the big society” and wanting to stop banging on about Europe.
    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
    That was possibly true if we had left with a very mild deal on time with minimal trauma. Leaving with no deal, late, with every stage a drama will just mean the whole thing will live on in folk memory like the winter of discontent. But worse. It will become a byword for mismanagement and chaos.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    I voted Remain as I thought it was the best option as was with the opt outs available.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards I would have voted Leave.

    However 37.5% of the voters voted Leave and I respect their decision
    Corrected for you.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Of course the pro Brexit Conservative Party of Canada is neck and neck with Trudeau's Liberals in the polls and if their leader Andrew Scheer becomes Canadian PM that likely change a things.

    Though even Trudeau has not ruled out a FTA with the UK eventually
    You don't get it do you. That's a real business employing people which is facing real problems which will affect their profits and those people's jobs and lives because of the insouciant indifference of the people you support who couldn't give a shit about the lives of ordinary people.
    When was the Canadian tariff lowered though? I’d see it as more of a temporarily foregone opportunity - so affecting expansion rather than current jobs.

    But, yes, Faisal is stating the bleeding obvious: lower tariffs are better.

    But it’s still the same old argument - you’ll be richer now under Remain. Tried that in 2016 and people weighed up the pros and cons and chose a different path
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone else feeling their first tinge of political optimism, in about three years?

    OK, it's just me then. But fuck it. Even if Boris is a disaster he will be amusing (and we are in a disastrous position, anyhow). Also he is smart. He will probably be the smartest, best educated leader in the western world. Which comes as a relief after the national humiliation that was Theresa May, grimacing her awkward way across the world stage, like a mildly electrocuted praying mantis.

    A pale imitation of the lamented SeanT.
    Fair play though, it's an extremely authentic pale imitation of the great man. Half way through the second glass of Gran Reserva I'd say, before the invective engine gets properly in gear.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited July 2019

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    Why vote for the Lib Dems then? They're the ones who wanted a leave or remain referendum before even Cameron.
    It's 2019.
    Yes, less than a decade since the Lib Dems were campaigning on a manifesto of holding an EU referendum and banging on about tuition fees.
    Less than a decade since the Tories were campaigning on a manifesto of “the big society” and wanting to stop banging on about Europe.
    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
    That was possibly true if we had left with a very mild deal on time with minimal trauma. Leaving with no deal, late, with every stage a drama will just mean the whole thing will live on in folk memory like the winter of discontent. But worse. It will become a byword for mismanagement and chaos.
    Only if it is bad economically. If it is short realignment of the economy, about 12 months, then growth and job creation it will be forgotten very quickly.

    What does every forecast say - short realignment, then economic growth and job creation.

    edit - all the above for no deal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Zephyr said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Since I have told you repeatedly what my views are and you insist on ignoring what I write, quite clearly, there is very little point in engaging with you.

    You and those you support are quite prepared for others to suffer. It is utterly contemptible.

    And HYUFD and myself are in the same party would you believe but for how long is debatable
    You have joined the Brexit Party?
    Not in a million years
    Then I doubt you and he are in the same party. Mentally, he appears to have moved considerably towards the fringe :)
    He has but there are many of us defending the moderate approach. (TM deal was ok)

    A no deal exit cuts that umbilical cord
    But it doesn’t stay no deal does it? It moves on from no deal to a deal not dissimilar to hard brexit, surely? So the main difference between no deal and hard brexit is a couple of months extra chaos (to a degree to be argued over) before both options result in pretty much the same destination?

    Explain why I have this wrong, because all those, and I can name you, who big up no deal are in fact making hard brexit deal sound like a compromise, when actually the destination is the same.
    Hang on.

    I do not big up no deal, I am appalled at the economic armageddon it would cause

    My position has always been TM deal or similar
    Armageddon - "a dramatic and catastrophic conflict, especially one seen as likely to destroy the world or the human race."

    Those ERGers they are the extremists.
    Don't be such a prissy tosser - I doubt there's any poster* on here who doesn't recognise that Big_G is using armageddon colloquially to 'mean a major disaster'.

    (*Apart from the Russian bot 'posters' maybe.)
    The key word was 'economic' and thanks Ben
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    No I am not getting paid but I wish I was as to be quite frank it is getting increasingly tiresome posting on this blog when all you get is personal insult and abuse from some quarters simply for stating the views of millions that the Brexit vote should be respected (even No Deal is supported by a significant number of voters).

    It used to be this blog was civil to those of all viewpoints without resorting to abuse such as 'moron' as I received earlier today.

    If this blog wishes to become an echo chamber for Remainers and Stop Brexiteers fine but many of us will not spend too much time bothering to post if it does. Hard aggressive debate is fine, personal abuse is not.

    I would also point out I said Boris would be next Tory leader and very few believed me, tomorrow I will likely be proved right. Enough said
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    AndyJS said:

    Could be 37 degrees on Thursday. Not looking forward to it.

    Have to be in town for a board meeting - very much not looking forward to it. Drinks after al fresco May be better!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Could be 37 degrees on Thursday. Not looking forward to it.

    There's a possibility Thursday might break the UK heat record.

    I remember the day that record was set. It is the only time British weather has given me an intense and discomfiting headache - rather than just pissing me off, being wanky and irritating etc etc

    I was playing cricket and fielding first having lost the toss. We won, but I think it was a price the opposition were happy to pay.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    Why vote for the Lib Dems then? They're the ones who wanted a leave or remain referendum before even Cameron.
    It's 2019.
    Yes, less than a decade since the Lib Dems were campaigning on a manifesto of holding an EU referendum and banging on about tuition fees.
    Less than a decade since the Tories were campaigning on a manifesto of “the big society” and wanting to stop banging on about Europe.
    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
    That was possibly true if we had left with a very mild deal on time with minimal trauma. Leaving with no deal, late, with every stage a drama will just mean the whole thing will live on in folk memory like the winter of discontent. But worse. It will become a byword for mismanagement and chaos.
    Sure. Quite possibly so. But the national appetite for ANOTHER horribly divisive referendum, after we Leave? About zero. Just think what would happen to any party that proposed it. They'd get 10% of the votes from frothing euro-weirdoes, and everyone else would shudder.

    The only hope for Remainers is to stop Brexit before it happens. That is unlikely, but not inconceivable.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
    Yes they are somewhat extreme. But what I'm saying is that Trump may be trying to use them as representing the Dems as a whole. If the Dems fall for that they may lose. They should find someone who seems steady, normal, and sane.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    No I am not getting paid but I wish I was as to be quite frank it is getting increasingly tiresome posting on this blog when all you get is personal insult and abuse from some quarters simply for stating the views of millions that the Brexit vote should be respected (even No Deal is supported by a significant number of voters).

    It used to be this blog was civil to those of all viewpoints without resorting to abuse such as 'moron' as I received earlier today.

    If this blog wishes to become an echo chamber for Remainers and Stop Brexiteers fine but many of us will not spend too much time bothering to post if it does. Hard aggressive debate is fine, personal abuse is not
    I agree with you HYUFD and that is not very often
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Unlike, say, The Brexit Party. Or the Tory Party even.
    I am perfectly happy to dismiss the Brexit Party as a single issue Party. And the current Tory party as a basket case that has forgotten what being a “party of government” under PR requires. When I am talking about the “ the danger” for the Lib Dem’s I am genuinely talking about them aspiring to be a party of Govt. why restrict your ambitions to preventing Brexit when there is such a gaping hole opening up as offering a sane alternative as a party of govt?
    I guess cos, well, at the moment it is working just fine. I wonder if they are putting in any work on a wider manifesto though? At the moment, Labour has policies not about Brexit. Whereas the other 3 parties seemingly have no policies other than Brexit, and would need to produce some pretty sharpish.
    Which is why a snap election is so dangerous for the government. See 2017.
    I genuinely think that there is a case that McDonnell is currently the most impressive politician in the U.K. Even though I think many of his plans are bonkers I at least get the impression that he is prepared to moderate/change them to try and make them work. About how many othe leading politicians can that be said?
    Well, indeed. The policies are there to be shot down of course. But they have the distinct advantage of actually existing. The alternative is just to spew some out, without any thought, consultation, or analysis, during a campaign. The May Plan in other words.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Zephyr said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Since I have told you repeatedly what my views are and you insist on ignoring what I write, quite clearly, there is very little point in engaging with you.

    You and those you support are quite prepared for others to suffer. It is utterly contemptible.

    And HYUFD and myself are in the same party would you believe but for how long is debatable
    You have joined the Brexit Party?
    Not in a million years
    Then I doubt you and he are in the same party. Mentally, he appears to have moved considerably towards the fringe :)
    He has but there are many of us defending the moderate approach. (TM deal was ok)

    A no deal exit cuts that umbilical cord
    But it doesn’t stay no deal does it? It moves on from no deal to a deal not dissimilar to hard brexit, surely? So the main difference between no deal and hard brexit is a couple of months extra chaos (to a degree to be argued over) before both options result in pretty much the same destination?

    Explain why I have this wrong, because all those, and I can name you, who big up no deal are in fact making hard brexit deal sound like a compromise, when actually the destination is the same.
    Hang on.

    I do not big up no deal, I am appalled at the economic armageddon it would cause

    My position has always been TM deal or similar
    Armageddon - "a dramatic and catastrophic conflict, especially one seen as likely to destroy the world or the human race."

    Those ERGers they are the extremists.
    Don't be such a prissy tosser - I doubt there's any poster* on here who doesn't recognise that Big_G is using armageddon colloquially to 'mean a major disaster'.

    (*Apart from the Russian bot 'posters' maybe.)
    When are you going to defend 350million on the side of a bus as well they just meant a lot of money?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    edited July 2019

    So will Hammond resign tomorrow or on Wednesday?

    I do think the Tories made a tactical error here. Given that the Cabinet is chosen personally by the PM I am surprised they have not said that the whole cabinet is considered to have resigned/been dismissed at the point if handover from.one PM to the next. This would prevent these little tantrum resignations and give the incoming PM a clean slate to work from.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    New Thread
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:
    So guns before helpiing starving children. Sums up ERG sadly
    So are you in favour of cutting the defence budget and spending the extra money on increasing Foreign Aid ?
    I am in favour of the 0.7 % aid being spent on exactly that, not guns or weapons

    No increase but no stealing from the mouths of starving children to increase our military
    @Big_G_NorthWales

    The emotive language doesn’t help

    There is a huge amount of good done by DfID but a tiny proportion goes on disaster relief (“stealing from the mouths of starving children”) and much in that case is either indirect (eg via UNICEF) or matching donations to the DRC.

    In my view support for programmes such as GAVI (vaccination) and the Malaria campaign (forget the acronym) are much more impactful.

    But it’s a mistake to have a legal percentage. If there is value added stuff we should do it, preferably with a long term commitment, and if not we shouldn’t just to hit an arbitrary number
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    I can announce the successful election of a new thread.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited July 2019
    Toms said:

    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
    Yes they are somewhat extreme. But what I'm saying is that Trump may be trying to use them as representing the Dems as a whole. If the Dems fall for that they may lose. They should find someone who seems steady, normal, and sane.
    Ah, OK, yes. Then I agree. If Trump succeeds in making the Dems identify with the woke wankiness of the Squad then I think he could easily win. Right now he is cleverly cornering the Democrats into doing just that.

    Trump remains an enigma. He seems barely sentient. He cannot talk coherently. If I met him in a supermarket I'd say he had Alzheimer's. Yet he displays great political cunning. Is it him, or his advisors, or just dumb luck?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:


    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).

    This is delusional. These debates will not end the day we leave. This trauma is only beginning. There is no off the peg FTA available under the wills in WH Smith’s.

    FTA negotiations negotiations will be about regulatory alignment in some sectors, in order to remove non-tariff barriers to trade, which will would require some joint decision-making and oversight, which means that the UK would participate in some EU institutions, or in newly created joint UK-EU institutions. “But Sovereignty!”

    Someone on either the UK or the EU side will suggest to make it easier to obtain work visas, in order to improve labour mobility “But Borders!”

    These sorts of arguments will go on and on and look almost exactly the same as the ones we are having now. The easiest way of avoiding them is to adopt the approach of the founders of Western Democracy in the The Mytilenaean Debate and reverse the decision before it is enacted and stick with what we have.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    It's 2019.
    Yesabout tuition fees.
    pe.
    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
    That was possibly true if we had left with a very mild deal on time with minimal trauma. Leaving with no deal, late, with every stage a drama will just mean the whole thing will live on in folk memory like the winter of discontent. But worse. It will become a byword for mismanagement and chaos.
    Sure. Quite possibly so. But the national appetite for ANOTHER horribly divisive referendum, after we Leave? About zero. Just think what would happen to any party that proposed it. They'd get 10% of the votes from frothing euro-weirdoes, and everyone else would shudder.

    The only hope for Remainers is to stop Brexit before it happens. That is unlikely, but not inconceivable.
    You assume that the motivation of all remainers (particularly those in political parties) is to prevent Brexit. For many/most I think it is about howBrexit will define their political futures. This explains why so many are not prepared to compromise for the sake of preventing no deal. It is because they will prosper politically from either extreme.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
    To be absolutely honest, I don't think he chose them out of calculation, I think he chose them because he's racist. Sometimes simple explanations are the best.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    I voted Remain as I thought it was the best option as was with the opt outs available.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards I would have voted Leave.

    However 37.5% of the voters voted Leave and I respect their decision
    Corrected for you.
    If you can't be arsed to vote then you dont get to have your views considered.

    Of course as far as most MPs seem to be concerned even if you do vote they don't think your vote should count if thry don't agree with you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    I’m still yet to hear the reasons why HYUFD voted remain in 2016 since he seems to reject absolutely many of the main arguments put forward by the Remain campaign. I understand that he is a Tory loyalist, and even thinks that the vote must be followed through, but what does he actually believe would be best for the country?

    Are you wholly discounting the notion that he might be getting paid?
    No I am not getting paid but I wish I was as to be quite frank it is getting increasingly tiresome posting on this blog when all you get is personal insult and abuse from some quarters simply for stating the views of millions that the Brexit vote should be respected (even No Deal is supported by a significant number of voters).

    It used to be this blog was civil to those of all viewpoints without resorting to abuse such as 'moron' as I received earlier today.

    If this blog wishes to become an echo chamber for Remainers and Stop Brexiteers fine but many of us will not spend too much time bothering to post if it does. Hard aggressive debate is fine, personal abuse is not
    I agree with you HYUFD and that is not very often
    Thanks BigG, although we often disagree quite strongly you are always civil
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    I vote for a set of policies not a person to be The Victor.

    This is not Love Island.
    'Stop Brexit': it's enough to secure my vote.
    It's 2019.
    Less than a decade since the Tories were campaigning on a manifesto of “the big society” and wanting to stop banging on about Europe.
    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.
    Even my most Remoanery friends have reached this stage. Acceptance and resignation, and a desire to Move On beyond Brexit (once it is done).
    Get better friends. The campaign to rejoin starts the day we leave - if the leavers ever work out how to actually leave in the first place.
    Oh, I've no doubt there will be a hardcore of Remainers who will carry the torch towards Rejoin, and good luck to them. I just think the rest of the country will become Recoilers - the idea of going through all this again will be repulsive and emetic. It has been a national trauma.

    It will take a generation to forget, so if there is a campaign to rejoin I expect them to get their vote within 25-40 years, if ever (as was the case with the eurosceptics).
    That was possibly true if we had left with a very mild deal on time with minimal trauma. Leaving with no deal, late, with every stage a drama will just mean the whole thing will live on in folk memory like the winter of discontent. But worse. It will become a byword for mismanagement and chaos.
    Only if it is bad economically. If it is short realignment of the economy, about 12 months, then growth and job creation it will be forgotten very quickly.

    What does every forecast say - short realignment, then economic growth and job creation.

    edit - all the above for no deal.
    You are putting a lot of faith in people's ability to monitor how well or badly the economy is going and working back to the causes of the performance. There isn't even a consensus on whether post referendum the economy is doing well or badly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Could be 37 degrees on Thursday. Not looking forward to it.

    There's a possibility Thursday might break the UK heat record.

    I remember the day that record was set. It is the only time British weather has given me an intense and discomfiting headache - rather than just pissing me off, being wanky and irritating etc etc

    Yes I remember it was 10th August 2003. My family deliberately went to the west Wales coast that day because it was only 20 degrees there.

    Incidentally, I'm in a London hotel at the moment which is supposed to have air conditioning, but it only seems to be operating every so often, not all the time. Is this some sort of politically correct decision to save energy?
  • MarxMarx Posts: 28
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
    To be absolutely honest, I don't think he chose them out of calculation, I think he chose them because he's racist. Sometimes simple explanations are the best.
    Interesting how Trump went all racist all of a sudden, couldn't have anything to do with diverting media and public attention from the Epstein allegations which were getting very close to him. Very many US daddy's wouldn't be happy with the thought of old men playing hunt the wiener with their daughters, no matter how rich they profess to be.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    Byronic said:

    Toms said:

    alex. said:

    Toms said:

    Often, I hear the LDs scorned by tories and laborites for being uncommitted opportunists and generally wishy-washy. But, unlike the aforementioned, the LDs stance on brexit has been clear from the start. I'd like to see the Greens and LDs take over, starting with this country.

    Problem with the Libdems is that they’ve so much seen their salvation coming from Brexit that they are in danger of being defined as a single issue party.
    Maybe so. That makes me think of the Democrats: By his racist attacks on those four congresswomen he may be trying, monumentally hypocritically, to bend public perception of the Dems as somewhat extreme.

    Incidentally, these two clips show two differing approaches to morality, both by Republicans:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqLxxbjVG_k

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdKEbyNYbFU
    The Squad - certainly Ilhan Omar - actually ARE quite extreme. Omar has had to make multiple apologies for her anti Semitism. She's genuinely nasty.

    Trump is an oaf and a git but he chooses good enemies.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/6/18251639/ilhan-omar-israel-anti-semitism-jews
    Yes they are somewhat extreme. But what I'm saying is that Trump may be trying to use them as representing the Dems as a whole. If the Dems fall for that they may lose. They should find someone who seems steady, normal, and sane.
    Ah, OK, yes. Then I agree. If Trump succeeds in making the Dems identify with the woke wankiness of the Squad then I think he could easily win. Right now he is cleverly cornering the Democrats into doing just that.

    Trump remains an enigma. He seems barely sentient. He cannot talk coherently. If I met him in a supermarket I'd say he had Alzheimer's. Yet he displays great political cunning. Is it him, or his advisors, or just dumb luck?
    One giant creep for mankind.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019



    Once we've exited we can put the EU behind us in the rear view mirror and stop banging on about Europe.

    Europe will remain important to us and we will eventually get a trade deal, but it will be a much smaller part of our life.

    What exactly is your vision of 21st century geopolitics where this happens?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    HYUFD said:



    No, we give a shot about regaining sovereignty, controlling our borders and ultimately doing our own trade deals as 17 million people voted for but I know you have no interest in respecting the biggest vote in post war UK history.

    Tell me what this "regaining sovereignty" means in practical terms in the globalised world of the 21st century? What does "controlling our borders" mean in the age of mass migration induced by climate change (you ain't seen nothing yet)? Are we going to machine gun them in the Channel?

    And as for trade deals, I suspect that any gains will be matched by ten losses, but maybe you could change my mind with solid evidence.

    Otherwise it sounds like you have been duped.
This discussion has been closed.