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  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.

    They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
    It sounds like fantasy to me! HYUFD was saying the Tories could target the Labour parties 100 most marginal seats the otherday on a poll share of 32% with Boris as leader!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?

    If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?

    I don't think Hansard is a completely verbatim record. If someone misspeaks they can have the official record corrected for example, IIRC. So maybe it is possible for the House to require sections be amended in such a manner, but I've never heard of such a thing, it would seem a very slipperly slope.
    A misspeak getting corrected is one thing.

    One party trying to get the leader of the other party's speech stricken from the record on party lines is another matter altogether. Seems very slippery indeed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited July 2019

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    I hear the Conservative Club in Jarrow is reasonably popular because the Labour club shut down and the beer is cheap!
    I frequented the local Tory Club in my youth. 5p cheaper beer than the Labour Club, and the only 2 full size snooker tables in town.
    Was this back when 5p was worth about 2 dollars!! :D
    Some time ago yes. 5p a pint saving was certainly worth considerably more than it is now!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited July 2019
    Freggles said:

    viewcode said:

    Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?

    We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates

    You register as a party and select which levels you will stand at. They are registered to stand in GB as well as Europe.

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7931
    Thank you

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?

    If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?

    I think ed balls had "so what" changed to "so weak," didn't he?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?

    We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates

    No deposits to pay until nominations are made after an election is called.
    So BXP exists, it can field a UKGE slate but has not picked any candidates and has paid no deposits yet. OK, thank you.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.

    They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
    TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.

    If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
    I agree, Farage will under no circumstances want to be seen as the person that killed Brexit if they stand candidates against a Tory leave manifesto.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?

    Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour

    Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
    Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
    Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
    Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Seems rock solid red to me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?

    Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour

    Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
    Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
    Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
    Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
    Typical Durham student is still quite remainy!

    But you’re right. It’s not very likely, but still a possibility and would be very funny.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Seems rock solid red to me.
    Only based on 2017 following peak Labour and rock bottom LD.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Ditching the backstop even with an end date or exit mechanism was surely the moment both candidates completely lost the plot .

    This will be seen by a section of more moderate Tories as a total sell out to the ERG and a one way ticket to no deal.

    Quite shocked to see Simon Hoares interview on Newsnight , he’s not even seen as one of the usual pro EU suspects !

    Just wait till Hammond , Gauke and co end up on the backbenches .

    This really isn’t going to end well for the Tories .
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?

    Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour

    Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
    Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
    Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
    Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
    Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.

    If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.

    A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.

    But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?

    And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited July 2019
    Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Seems rock solid red to me.
    Only based on 2017 following peak Labour and rock bottom LD.
    No, based on the last 80 years. Even in 2010 there was an over 3k majority.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019

    TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.

    If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.

    A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.

    But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?

    And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
    Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.

    I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Seems rock solid red to me.
    Only based on 2017 following peak Labour and rock bottom LD.
    No, based on the last 80 years. Even in 2010 there was an over 3k majority.
    3k majority is nothing and Durham City is trending wealthier and more middle class.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?

    Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour

    Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
    Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
    Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
    Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
    Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
    Durham students not generally well integrated with the city. I can see a good proportion being registered to vote at home rather than at Uni, if that's possible at Westminster elections.

    They are big remainers though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    Ditching the backstop even with an end date or exit mechanism was surely the moment both candidates completely lost the plot .

    This will be seen by a section of more moderate Tories as a total sell out to the ERG and a one way ticket to no deal.

    Quite shocked to see Simon Hoares interview on Newsnight , he’s not even seen as one of the usual pro EU suspects !

    Just wait till Hammond , Gauke and co end up on the backbenches .

    This really isn’t going to end well for the Tories .

    If the Gaukeward squad have to go then so be it. Time for this to end.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    exactly
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Prediction: instead of scrapping the free TV licence for over 75s, the age will be raised to either 80 or 85.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/robertabwmp/status/1151107796852756480?s=21

    Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.

    Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?

    Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour

    Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
    Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
    Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
    Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
    Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
    As a Durham student myself - albeit many moons ago - 'pretty much as left wing as it gets' I would not recognise. Middle class & remain is about right I would say.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    “Not one person worldwide has died in a drug consumption facility, and I want to know why the UK Government is denying that dignity, that access to services, that early intervention that we know, from all the evidence worldwide, works."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.

    If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.

    A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.

    But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?

    And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
    Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.

    I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
    No danger of challenge or dissent either. He'd like that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited July 2019

    Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.

    I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.

    You can't restrain an incumbent Prime Minister with their own majority by speaking up, and if you could you wouldn't need to be in parliament to do it.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.

    How would that even work?

    If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place.
    But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
    I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
    Except that the Remain Alliance will be aiming to take seats off Labour and the Conservatives. The Leave Alliance will be taking seats off the Conservatives, for the most part.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    malcolmg said:

    Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
    I had sepsis back about 7 years ago. Was hospital sick for about 3 days, had no idea ~ 1 in 3 people die from it though only found that out a couple of years back :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.

    They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
    It sounds like fantasy to me! HYUFD was saying the Tories could target the Labour parties 100 most marginal seats the otherday on a poll share of 32% with Boris as leader!
    With a 7% lead as the Tories had on that 32% they could certainly target the top 50 and beyond that let the Brexit Party do the work
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I still hope we do have an election this year. I assume Boris would have to lose a VONC for that to happen.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.

    I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.

    You can't restrain an incumbent Prime Minister with their own majority by speaking up, and if you could you wouldn't need to be in parliament to do it.
    Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
    I had sepsis back about 7 years ago. Was hospital sick for about 3 days, had no idea ~ 1 in 3 people die from it though only found that out a couple of years back :o
    Lucky boy, over 40,000 a year die of it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    AOC is great, what a communicator. No wonder Trump is afraid of her!
    She's not running to be POTUS. Nominating a left progressive/socialist will hand Trump another four years of mayhem. Madness.
    She is too young, but don't underestimate America. Socialism is surprisingly popular there:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
    Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
    Indeed, 40% of Americans for Socialism is still 8% less than Hillary got in 2016 and even 5% less than the 45.6% Dukakis got in 1988 when he lost by a landslide.

    40% would be the worst Democratic performance since Mondale in 1984 or McGovern in 1972
    Hmmm... plenty of the remaining 60% would vote for Dem over Trump regardless.
    A few maybe but not more than voted for Hillary if the Democrats go full George McGovern
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    PClipp said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.

    How would that even work?

    If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place.
    But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
    I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
    Except that the Remain Alliance will be aiming to take seats off Labour and the Conservatives. The Leave Alliance will be taking seats off the Conservatives, for the most part.
    When did the Liberal Democrats change their name to "Remain Alliance"?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.

    That brings us to the other problem with BXP leaving the field clear for Con, which is that they're not the only Brexit party in town. What Farage *really* wouldn't want is for BXP to stand down while UKIP or some other rival wins seats, and their guy becomes the de-facto Brexit spokesman and snaffles all Farage's juiciest media gigs.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    AndyJS said:

    Prediction: instead of scrapping the free TV licence for over 75s, the age will be raised to either 80 or 85.

    Possible. I also wonder whether they can change the rules. At the moment a household with any over 75 qualifies even if there are other people who would pay. I wonder how much they’d save by changing to households with ONLY over-75s who get it free?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tpfkar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Prediction: instead of scrapping the free TV licence for over 75s, the age will be raised to either 80 or 85.

    Possible. I also wonder whether they can change the rules. At the moment a household with any over 75 qualifies even if there are other people who would pay. I wonder how much they’d save by changing to households with ONLY over-75s who get it free?
    I think what they're really afraid of is when the British babyboomers hit the age for a free TV licence, which means people born from 1946 onwards. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep on changing the age for as long as possible in order to exclude that very large cohort.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.

    That brings us to the other problem with BXP leaving the field clear for Con, which is that they're not the only Brexit party in town. What Farage *really* wouldn't want is for BXP to stand down while UKIP or some other rival wins seats, and their guy becomes the de-facto Brexit spokesman and snaffles all Farage's juiciest media gigs.
    That's not going to happen. UKIP are deader than John Cleese's parrot.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Its almost as if early name recognition polls can change once people start to get to know all the contenders.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Its almost as if early name recognition polls can change once people start to get to know all the contenders.
    Harsh... :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Its almost as if early name recognition polls can change once people start to get to know all the contenders.
    Harsh... :)
    Fortunately noone on here would make that mistake.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited July 2019
    On the license fee thing Japan has something similar for the broadcaster NHK. We've got Senate elections coming up here, and the Protect The People From NHK Party seems to be making quite an impact.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36LKd1xQ_KU&t=4m45s

    The theme song starts at 4:45
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    If Labour lose seats in South Wales, which is highly likely, it won't be to Brexit, it will be to PC, the LDs and the Conservatives, and not for the reasons you suggest.
    No it wouldn't, the Brexit Party swept the board in the South Wales valleys in the European Parliament elections.

    Plaid and the Tories and LDs might win some seats in Mid and North Wales and the West coast but in the Valleys it would be all Brexit Party
    Whilst I admire your persistence, I simply don't think it is possible to use the EU elections as any representation of what would happen in a GE. People vote in very different ways in different elections. I think the only honest answer anyone can give about the results of the next GE considering how extraordinary the circumstances will be is that we have no idea how it will play out.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    That's not going to happen. UKIP are deader than John Cleese's parrot.

    Nature abhors a vacuum, if BXP stands down the angry Brexit voters aren't all going Con.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?

    And I've just looked at the Betfair market again and have a better question: who on earth still thinks there is a 4% chance of Hillary Clinton getting the nomination? Given she isn't running, it would have to be as a "unity" candidate following a (heavily) contested convention, and I just can't see it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    That's not going to happen. UKIP are deader than John Cleese's parrot.

    Nature abhors a vacuum, if BXP stands down the angry Brexit voters aren't all going Con.
    There will be some refuseniks but they'll be nobodies. I expect UKIP would get fewer votes than in 2017.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?

    She was running in third back in Feb, behind both Biden and Sanders. But you are correct: she's a bit centrist for California and that means she underperforms what you would expect.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
    Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.

    My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.

    Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    That's not going to happen. UKIP are deader than John Cleese's parrot.

    Nature abhors a vacuum, if BXP stands down the angry Brexit voters aren't all going Con.
    There will be some refuseniks but they'll be nobodies. I expect UKIP would get fewer votes than in 2017.
    UKIP will be able to secure some of the 2010 BNP vote. Morrissey and such like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
    Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.

    My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.

    Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
    Biden is far more charismatic and appealing than Kerry and connects more with blue collar workers.

    If the Democrats are not careful they will do a 1972 and pick their George McGovern eg Warren over their Hubert Humphrey in Biden and hand their Nixon, Trump, re election on a plate
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has HYUFD moved right in the last few weeks?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?

    She was running in third back in Feb, behind both Biden and Sanders. But you are correct: she's a bit centrist for California and that means she underperforms what you would expect.
    Thanks. Probably means California going early this time works against her, as if she can't score a convincing victory there, will damage her prospects elsewhere. Conclusion: she's currently too short and probably shouldn't be favourite.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Not sure if I have missed this being discussed earlier - but it is utterly damning

    https://twitter.com/nicolelampert/status/1151264038699057153
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Boris Johnson team considering plan to suspend parliament in run up to Brexit

    Johnson could send MPs home for up to two weeks in October under plans being considered by his campaign."

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-team-considering-plan-to-suspend-parliament-in-run-up-to-brexit-11764347
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For all you Biden lovers, there's a new California poll out today that should strike fear into you: https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

    It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.

    The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
    Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.

    My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.

    Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
    Biden is far more charismatic and appealing than Kerry and connects more with blue collar workers.

    If the Democrats are not careful they will do a 1972 and pick their George McGovern eg Warren over their Hubert Humphrey in Biden and hand their Nixon, Trump, re election on a plate
    You know what, let's not argue about this. Let's settle it with science.

    Let's choose a couple of clips of Harris, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. You choose two per candidate, I'll choose two. I'll write some code to generate random match-ups: so Biden clip 1 vs Warren clip 3.

    We'll then get a polling company to ask 1,000 people who identify as "blue collar" to watch the two clips and rate which of the two cadidates was the more charismatic. (We might add other questions if you like.)

    In this way we'll get a series of match-ups that should tell us which candidates appeal most to "blue collar" Americans, and get it based on real voters, real reactions.

    Running a survey like this with YouGov or one of the others will probably cost in the region of £3-10,000. I'm prepared to spend the money myself. But if it shows that Biden is not some magical character with special appeal to blue collar Americans, you agree not keep repeating the mantra that he is.

    Other than some time to find 30 second clips for each of the candidates, you have nothing to lose. Deal?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    rcs1000 said:

    You know what, let's not argue about this. Let's settle it with science.

    Let's choose a couple of clips of Harris, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. You choose two per candidate, I'll choose two. I'll write some code to generate random match-ups: so Biden clip 1 vs Warren clip 3.

    We'll then get a polling company to ask 1,000 people who identify as "blue collar" to watch the two clips and rate which of the two cadidates was the more charismatic. (We might add other questions if you like.)

    In this way we'll get a series of match-ups that should tell us which candidates appeal most to "blue collar" Americans, and get it based on real voters, real reactions.

    Running a survey like this with YouGov or one of the others will probably cost in the region of £3-10,000. I'm prepared to spend the money myself. But if it shows that Biden is not some magical character with special appeal to blue collar Americans, you agree not keep repeating the mantra that he is.

    Other than some time to find 30 second clips for each of the candidates, you have nothing to lose. Deal?

    Just to add, each of the 1,000 or so voters wil get to rate a single match up. So, some will get Buttigieg 3 vs Biden 1, others will ger Harris 2 vs Sanders 4.

    It means we should get a pretty good handle on how people feel about the candidates - from across the political spectrum - once they have spent 30 seconds watching a clip of them talk/make a speech/debate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Couldn't see Biden remembering what he said in 2004...let alone 1974.....

    https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1151232159950278657
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Couldn't see Biden remembering what he said in 2004...let alone 1974.....

    https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1151232159950278657

    Sanders looks 80, but is as sharp as a 50 year old

    Biden looks 65, but is as sharp as.... As.... Actually, I can't think of anything sufficiently blunt.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    So Mr Osborne. What IS your new found friend going to do once he becomes PM?
This discussion has been closed.