What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.
But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?
Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.
They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
It sounds like fantasy to me! HYUFD was saying the Tories could target the Labour parties 100 most marginal seats the otherday on a poll share of 32% with Boris as leader!
Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?
If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?
I don't think Hansard is a completely verbatim record. If someone misspeaks they can have the official record corrected for example, IIRC. So maybe it is possible for the House to require sections be amended in such a manner, but I've never heard of such a thing, it would seem a very slipperly slope.
A misspeak getting corrected is one thing.
One party trying to get the leader of the other party's speech stricken from the record on party lines is another matter altogether. Seems very slippery indeed.
I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.
What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
I hear the Conservative Club in Jarrow is reasonably popular because the Labour club shut down and the beer is cheap!
I frequented the local Tory Club in my youth. 5p cheaper beer than the Labour Club, and the only 2 full size snooker tables in town.
Was this back when 5p was worth about 2 dollars!!
Some time ago yes. 5p a pint saving was certainly worth considerably more than it is now!
Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?
We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates
You register as a party and select which levels you will stand at. They are registered to stand in GB as well as Europe.
Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?
If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?
I think ed balls had "so what" changed to "so weak," didn't he?
Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?
We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates
No deposits to pay until nominations are made after an election is called.
So BXP exists, it can field a UKGE slate but has not picked any candidates and has paid no deposits yet. OK, thank you.
What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.
But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?
Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.
They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.
If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
I agree, Farage will under no circumstances want to be seen as the person that killed Brexit if they stand candidates against a Tory leave manifesto.
Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.
Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?
Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour
Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772 Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408 Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787 Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.
If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.
But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?
And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.
If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.
But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?
And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.
I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.
Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?
Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour
Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772 Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408 Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787 Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
Durham students not generally well integrated with the city. I can see a good proportion being registered to vote at home rather than at Uni, if that's possible at Westminster elections.
I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.
What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.
Unless the election is in November - students aren't around and have you met your typical Durham Student?
Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour
Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772 Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408 Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787 Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
Students will be around in November. They won't have arrived by September, though. And Durham students probably are somewhere close to Cambridge students, who are pretty much as left wing as it gets, but also fanatical Remainers.
As a Durham student myself - albeit many moons ago - 'pretty much as left wing as it gets' I would not recognise. Middle class & remain is about right I would say.
“Not one person worldwide has died in a drug consumption facility, and I want to know why the UK Government is denying that dignity, that access to services, that early intervention that we know, from all the evidence worldwide, works."
TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.
If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
A politician who wasn't interested in power would be weird, I don't see any evidence that Farage is one.
But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?
And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.
I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
No danger of challenge or dissent either. He'd like that.
Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.
I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
You can't restrain an incumbent Prime Minister with their own majority by speaking up, and if you could you wouldn't need to be in parliament to do it.
What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.
But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?
Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.
How would that even work?
If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place. But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
Except that the Remain Alliance will be aiming to take seats off Labour and the Conservatives. The Leave Alliance will be taking seats off the Conservatives, for the most part.
Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
I had sepsis back about 7 years ago. Was hospital sick for about 3 days, had no idea ~ 1 in 3 people die from it though only found that out a couple of years back
What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.
But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?
Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.
They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
It sounds like fantasy to me! HYUFD was saying the Tories could target the Labour parties 100 most marginal seats the otherday on a poll share of 32% with Boris as leader!
With a 7% lead as the Tories had on that 32% they could certainly target the top 50 and beyond that let the Brexit Party do the work
Oh I think he'd want a safeish seat for himself so he can himself be in Parliament to speak up if Boris backtracks at all.
I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
You can't restrain an incumbent Prime Minister with their own majority by speaking up, and if you could you wouldn't need to be in parliament to do it.
Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.
Sensationalist crap, 3 to 4 people a day roughly so not armageddon. More than 35 times as many die of sepsis , mainly due to being badly diagnosed, do you see that on the front pages, ditto air pollution, total bollox.
I had sepsis back about 7 years ago. Was hospital sick for about 3 days, had no idea ~ 1 in 3 people die from it though only found that out a couple of years back
Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
Indeed, 40% of Americans for Socialism is still 8% less than Hillary got in 2016 and even 5% less than the 45.6% Dukakis got in 1988 when he lost by a landslide.
40% would be the worst Democratic performance since Mondale in 1984 or McGovern in 1972
Hmmm... plenty of the remaining 60% would vote for Dem over Trump regardless.
A few maybe but not more than voted for Hillary if the Democrats go full George McGovern
What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.
But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?
Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.
How would that even work?
If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place. But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
Except that the Remain Alliance will be aiming to take seats off Labour and the Conservatives. The Leave Alliance will be taking seats off the Conservatives, for the most part.
When did the Liberal Democrats change their name to "Remain Alliance"?
Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.
That brings us to the other problem with BXP leaving the field clear for Con, which is that they're not the only Brexit party in town. What Farage *really* wouldn't want is for BXP to stand down while UKIP or some other rival wins seats, and their guy becomes the de-facto Brexit spokesman and snaffles all Farage's juiciest media gigs.
Prediction: instead of scrapping the free TV licence for over 75s, the age will be raised to either 80 or 85.
Possible. I also wonder whether they can change the rules. At the moment a household with any over 75 qualifies even if there are other people who would pay. I wonder how much they’d save by changing to households with ONLY over-75s who get it free?
Prediction: instead of scrapping the free TV licence for over 75s, the age will be raised to either 80 or 85.
Possible. I also wonder whether they can change the rules. At the moment a household with any over 75 qualifies even if there are other people who would pay. I wonder how much they’d save by changing to households with ONLY over-75s who get it free?
I think what they're really afraid of is when the British babyboomers hit the age for a free TV licence, which means people born from 1946 onwards. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep on changing the age for as long as possible in order to exclude that very large cohort.
Actually restraining people isn't his style. If he has a bully pulpit from which to speak, a solid income and expenses account and the media following his utterances he'll be happy as a pig in mud.
That brings us to the other problem with BXP leaving the field clear for Con, which is that they're not the only Brexit party in town. What Farage *really* wouldn't want is for BXP to stand down while UKIP or some other rival wins seats, and their guy becomes the de-facto Brexit spokesman and snaffles all Farage's juiciest media gigs.
That's not going to happen. UKIP are deader than John Cleese's parrot.
On the license fee thing Japan has something similar for the broadcaster NHK. We've got Senate elections coming up here, and the Protect The People From NHK Party seems to be making quite an impact.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
If Labour lose seats in South Wales, which is highly likely, it won't be to Brexit, it will be to PC, the LDs and the Conservatives, and not for the reasons you suggest.
No it wouldn't, the Brexit Party swept the board in the South Wales valleys in the European Parliament elections.
Plaid and the Tories and LDs might win some seats in Mid and North Wales and the West coast but in the Valleys it would be all Brexit Party
Whilst I admire your persistence, I simply don't think it is possible to use the EU elections as any representation of what would happen in a GE. People vote in very different ways in different elections. I think the only honest answer anyone can give about the results of the next GE considering how extraordinary the circumstances will be is that we have no idea how it will play out.
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?
And I've just looked at the Betfair market again and have a better question: who on earth still thinks there is a 4% chance of Hillary Clinton getting the nomination? Given she isn't running, it would have to be as a "unity" candidate following a (heavily) contested convention, and I just can't see it.
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?
She was running in third back in Feb, behind both Biden and Sanders. But you are correct: she's a bit centrist for California and that means she underperforms what you would expect.
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.
My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.
Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.
My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.
Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
Biden is far more charismatic and appealing than Kerry and connects more with blue collar workers.
If the Democrats are not careful they will do a 1972 and pick their George McGovern eg Warren over their Hubert Humphrey in Biden and hand their Nixon, Trump, re election on a plate
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
Apologies if this has been covered previously, but shouldn't Harris be comfortably ahead in her home state at this stage?
She was running in third back in Feb, behind both Biden and Sanders. But you are correct: she's a bit centrist for California and that means she underperforms what you would expect.
Thanks. Probably means California going early this time works against her, as if she can't score a convincing victory there, will damage her prospects elsewhere. Conclusion: she's currently too short and probably shouldn't be favourite.
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
The only people who are Biden lovers are those with an inch of common sense who realise he is by far the best candidate to beat Trump, if the Democrats are stupid enough to pick Warren or Harris over Biden so be it but don't go complaining to us when it all turns to tears on election night next November and President Trump emerges triumphant at his victory party having been re elected winning both the popular vote as well as the electoral college
Ummm: I don't support any of the candidates. I don't get a vote here, and even if I did, I doubt I'd vote for Harris.
My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.
Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
Biden is far more charismatic and appealing than Kerry and connects more with blue collar workers.
If the Democrats are not careful they will do a 1972 and pick their George McGovern eg Warren over their Hubert Humphrey in Biden and hand their Nixon, Trump, re election on a plate
You know what, let's not argue about this. Let's settle it with science.
Let's choose a couple of clips of Harris, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. You choose two per candidate, I'll choose two. I'll write some code to generate random match-ups: so Biden clip 1 vs Warren clip 3.
We'll then get a polling company to ask 1,000 people who identify as "blue collar" to watch the two clips and rate which of the two cadidates was the more charismatic. (We might add other questions if you like.)
In this way we'll get a series of match-ups that should tell us which candidates appeal most to "blue collar" Americans, and get it based on real voters, real reactions.
Running a survey like this with YouGov or one of the others will probably cost in the region of £3-10,000. I'm prepared to spend the money myself. But if it shows that Biden is not some magical character with special appeal to blue collar Americans, you agree not keep repeating the mantra that he is.
Other than some time to find 30 second clips for each of the candidates, you have nothing to lose. Deal?
You know what, let's not argue about this. Let's settle it with science.
Let's choose a couple of clips of Harris, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. You choose two per candidate, I'll choose two. I'll write some code to generate random match-ups: so Biden clip 1 vs Warren clip 3.
We'll then get a polling company to ask 1,000 people who identify as "blue collar" to watch the two clips and rate which of the two cadidates was the more charismatic. (We might add other questions if you like.)
In this way we'll get a series of match-ups that should tell us which candidates appeal most to "blue collar" Americans, and get it based on real voters, real reactions.
Running a survey like this with YouGov or one of the others will probably cost in the region of £3-10,000. I'm prepared to spend the money myself. But if it shows that Biden is not some magical character with special appeal to blue collar Americans, you agree not keep repeating the mantra that he is.
Other than some time to find 30 second clips for each of the candidates, you have nothing to lose. Deal?
Just to add, each of the 1,000 or so voters wil get to rate a single match up. So, some will get Buttigieg 3 vs Biden 1, others will ger Harris 2 vs Sanders 4.
It means we should get a pretty good handle on how people feel about the candidates - from across the political spectrum - once they have spent 30 seconds watching a clip of them talk/make a speech/debate.
Boris Johnson Warned By US Senator That Trade Deal Will Have 'Tough' Time Passing Congress "There is bipartisan consensus against blowing up the Good Friday agreement."
Comments
One party trying to get the leader of the other party's speech stricken from the record on party lines is another matter altogether. Seems very slippery indeed.
Outside chance of a Lib Dem gain here I reckon. They came close in 2010. Big student population.
Even then this is the 2017 result - I suspect it's safe labour
Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab) 26,772
Alexander Lawrie (Con) 14,408
Amanda Hopgood (Lib Dem) 4,787
Malcolm Bint (UKIP) 1,116
But you’re right. It’s not very likely, but still a possibility and would be very funny.
This will be seen by a section of more moderate Tories as a total sell out to the ERG and a one way ticket to no deal.
Quite shocked to see Simon Hoares interview on Newsnight , he’s not even seen as one of the usual pro EU suspects !
Just wait till Hammond , Gauke and co end up on the backbenches .
This really isn’t going to end well for the Tories .
But in any case, even assuming Boris gave a commitment to a "clean Brexit", how could anyone trust him to keep it?
And what's a "clean Brexit" anyhow? Even if the British leave with No Deal, the most likely outcome is that they end up signing up to the equivalent to the WA, but after a lot of disruption. Even BXP say they want a deal with the EU. So how do you enforce such a deal being "clean"?
I don't think he'd hugely care if he was the only BXP MP elected though.
They are big remainers though.
It's a big poll and it shows Biden, who was leading comfortably a month ago, having lost half his support and having dropped to fourth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36LKd1xQ_KU&t=4m45s
The theme song starts at 4:45
My point is simply that Biden is, objectively, a truly appalling candidate. He's a man who makes Kerry look charismatic. A man who makes Trump sound coherent.
Ask yourself, if he didn't have some kind of reflected gleam from Obama, would he poll even 1%?
If the Democrats are not careful they will do a 1972 and pick their George McGovern eg Warren over their Hubert Humphrey in Biden and hand their Nixon, Trump, re election on a plate
https://twitter.com/nicolelampert/status/1151264038699057153
Johnson could send MPs home for up to two weeks in October under plans being considered by his campaign."
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-team-considering-plan-to-suspend-parliament-in-run-up-to-brexit-11764347
Let's choose a couple of clips of Harris, Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren. You choose two per candidate, I'll choose two. I'll write some code to generate random match-ups: so Biden clip 1 vs Warren clip 3.
We'll then get a polling company to ask 1,000 people who identify as "blue collar" to watch the two clips and rate which of the two cadidates was the more charismatic. (We might add other questions if you like.)
In this way we'll get a series of match-ups that should tell us which candidates appeal most to "blue collar" Americans, and get it based on real voters, real reactions.
Running a survey like this with YouGov or one of the others will probably cost in the region of £3-10,000. I'm prepared to spend the money myself. But if it shows that Biden is not some magical character with special appeal to blue collar Americans, you agree not keep repeating the mantra that he is.
Other than some time to find 30 second clips for each of the candidates, you have nothing to lose. Deal?
It means we should get a pretty good handle on how people feel about the candidates - from across the political spectrum - once they have spent 30 seconds watching a clip of them talk/make a speech/debate.
https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1151232159950278657
"There is bipartisan consensus against blowing up the Good Friday agreement."
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/chris-murphy-boris-johnson-trade-warning_uk_5d2d79b0e4b0a873f640d234/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIycarPcG58uN68Wy5vMTF9eoiHGWXJBimliKBTpcU2FmR22eGPNhLWKJs9So9OVQIaIS5mFw03ev2b8C8YNM09uDge35J33zOSJTd60Aqut3aI7peX4_5AtlPCfW7BKQoa46eLy66edfU0r_-9eDxStMI5spkE7bNKZPIhfVin_
Biden looks 65, but is as sharp as.... As.... Actually, I can't think of anything sufficiently blunt.