Charles II and George III both got away with highly unconstitutional behaviour because people liked them. James II and George IV could not (and arguably what James doing was perfectly legitimate).
Time's have changed. I don't think Charles could survive interfering.
I agree.Charles is highly eccentric and has very decided views on very controversial topics.
Edit - and you are still being plagued by rogue apostrophes.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
I've forgotten why Chukka and Co left Labour. Can you remind me?
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
It’s a bit of a silly argument. When Juncker was appointed as the “candidate of the EU Parliament” Eurosceptics ridiculed it because most people “weren’t really voting for him” (and didn’t know who he was). Now they complain that Von deer Leyden isn’t legitimate because she wasn’t someone drawn from the EU Parliament. Short of abolishing the post, what process would be acceptable?
How about an election by the public?
Why not? Apart from it being a step towards federalism of course.
The big question is how external events might move the dial on a VONC.
So far we’ve not had a government pursuing no deal as a policy. We don’t know yet how exactly the markets might react , how will business react .
It’s likely Johnson will want to wait till the very last minute before making that official policy .
There are issues though with legislation needed for a no deal . The government has avoided a raft of bills coming back to the Commons for fear of amendments but the trade , immigration bills etc need to go through .
The back and forth on the legitimacy of the new EU President is surely a moot point coming from citizens of this nation with a head of state elected by not one vote or a House of Lords who haven't troubled the citizenry either.
And a new PM chosen by a few hundred MPs of a party that only got 42% of the votes in the last General Election.
At least the Euro parliament broadly reflects its voters.
Anyway, the big story is where the election that HY so firmly promised us has gone?
Boris is not even PM yet while we still have 6 months left of the year
By the time he takes over we will have barely 5 months left - of which one will be spent in recess. The second half of December can also pretty well be ruled out , which leaves a limited window of opportunity given the length of any election campaign as stipulated by the FTPA.
If there is to be a general election this year it will almost certainly be as Boris loses a VONC to try and stop No Deal with Lee, Grieve, Gyimah etc voting with the opposition not under the FTPA.
There will then be a general election for Brexit Deal or No Deal with Boris or EUref2 or revoke with Corbyn, the LDs and SNP
Huh? Weren't you saying he was going to call one to get a parliament which will vote for his deal/not be able to prevent no deal?
I said he aimed to prorogue Parliament in late October to November with a general election shortly after which seems to be the plan today
For those opposed to the current system of electing the Commission President, can anyone put forward a non controversial way of appointing them?
It seems every approach will have its pros and cons, supporters and detractors. Given it needs to work across 28/27 countries used to different systems, and gain support across the political spectrum it is likely that every method would be controversial. Is it really so bad given the constraints.
It’s a bit of a silly argument. When Juncker was appointed as the “candidate of the EU Parliament” Eurosceptics ridiculed it because most people “weren’t really voting for him” (and didn’t know who he was). Now they complain that Von deer Leyden isn’t legitimate because she wasn’t someone drawn from the EU Parliament. Short of abolishing the post, what process would be acceptable?
How about an election by the public?
Why not? Apart from it being a step towards federalism of course.
It's not, it's just a step toward democracy.
The President holds the powers they hold regardless of how they are elected, or in this case not, by the public. We already hold 'federal' EU elections to the rubber stamping Parliament so why not to this post?
Charles II and George III both got away with highly unconstitutional behaviour because people liked them. James II and George IV could not (and arguably what James doing was perfectly legitimate).
Time's have changed. I don't think Charles could survive interfering.
I agree.Charles is highly eccentric and has very decided views on very controversial topics.
Edit - and you are still being plagued by rogue apostrophes.
Their is fewest thing's worstest than an rogues' apostrophe's.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?
You are assuming that Johnson's No Deal Brexit on Halloween commitment is maintained once he has the leadership in the bag. I'm not at all convinced it will.
If he extends again he risks PM Farage after the ERG vote down his Government and Boris knows that
No he doesn’t there is no way TBP Ltd will win a general election for the reasons I went through earlier, forget your bloody opinion polls and reflect on what you’ve learned fighting real elections.
If the Conservatives repealed A50, then TBP would have a fair chance of winning.
I don't expect them to gift so many voters to TBP, though.
For those opposed to the current system of electing the Commission President, can anyone put forward a non controversial way of appointing them?
It seems every approach will have its pros and cons, supporters and detractors. Given it needs to work across 28/27 countries used to different systems, and gain support across the political spectrum it is likely that every method would be controversial. Is it really so bad given the constraints.
The obvious objection is that 48‰ (if that was the losing percentage) of the MEP electorate were disenfranchised as there was only one candidate.
The big question is how external events might move the dial on a VONC.
So far we’ve not had a government pursuing no deal as a policy. We don’t know yet how exactly the markets might react , how will business react .
It’s likely Johnson will want to wait till the very last minute before making that official policy .
There are issues though with legislation needed for a no deal . The government has avoided a raft of bills coming back to the Commons for fear of amendments but the trade , immigration bills etc need to go through .
What do we know about Boris and his plan? A cynical observer would suggest his plan in life so far is a mix of what is best for Boris on a day to day basis, combined with what is best for Boris becoming PM. It seems plausible that his new plan will be a mix of what is best for Boris day to day combined with avoiding being the shortest serving PM ever.
Events will drive a Boris govt like never before. It will be chaotic, inconsistent and probably short and pointless.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
Unelected by the public.
I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
They are appointed by a democratically elected head of the executive. Every four years voters get to choose who that person is.
Re the US, that's not actually true,
The President is elected by the representatives of States via the electoral college, and the States have their own varying systems for how they choose their delegates for the electoral college.
That's a fair point, but if the EU member states did the same for the commission president, then that would be fine. Anyone want to distribute the electoral college votes?
The electoral college votes are equal to the number of members of Congress. So the EU system simply combines the election of member of legislature with delegate to the electoral college. In a sense.
Charles II and George III both got away with highly unconstitutional behaviour because people liked them. James II and George IV could not (and arguably what James doing was perfectly legitimate).
Time's have changed. I don't think Charles could survive interfering.
I agree.Charles is highly eccentric and has very decided views on very controversial topics.
Edit - and you are still being plagued by rogue apostrophes.
Their is fewest thing's worstest than an rogues' apostrophe's.
The spelling chequer on your pea sea seams two bee buggered.
Could there not be a further twist here? Boris seeks to dissolve Parliament in early September but is blocked by Corbyn's failure to oblige unless an Extension is sought until 31st December. Could such a scenario not give Boris effective cover to depart from the self-imposed 31st October deadline? 'I did not want an Extension , but was forced to act in this way by Corbyn'.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Could there not be a further twist here? Boris seeks to dissolve Parliament in early September but is blocked by Corbyn's failure to oblige unless an Extension is sought until 31st December. Could such a scenario not give Boris effective cover to depart from the self-imposed 31st October deadline? 'I did not want an Extension , but was forced to act in this way by Corbyn'.
Surely even Corbyn wouldn't self-destruct like that?
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Grieve, Lee, Gyimah, Bebb all in that category plus ex Tories like Soubry and Allen, such is their anti Brexit fanaticism
Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
Unelected by the public.
I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
They are appointed by a democratically elected head of the executive. Every four years voters get to choose who that person is.
Re the US, that's not actually true,
The President is elected by the representatives of States via the electoral college, and the States have their own varying systems for how they choose their delegates for the electoral college.
That's a fair point, but if the EU member states did the same for the commission president, then that would be fine. Anyone want to distribute the electoral college votes?
The electoral college votes are equal to the number of members of Congress. So the EU system simply combines the election of member of legislature with delegate to the electoral college. In a sense.
Minus the fact that the voters in the USA hold elections with the Presidential nominees on the ballot paper which didn't happen here.
Could there not be a further twist here? Boris seeks to dissolve Parliament in early September but is blocked by Corbyn's failure to oblige unless an Extension is sought until 31st December. Could such a scenario not give Boris effective cover to depart from the self-imposed 31st October deadline? 'I did not want an Extension , but was forced to act in this way by Corbyn'.
Surely even Corbyn wouldn't self-destruct like that?
I am only refining what Alastair has said in his excellent article by seeking to take his scenario a stage further. Boris seeks a a Dissolution with Corbyn replying 'yes ! -- But only if....'
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Charles II and George III both got away with highly unconstitutional behaviour because people liked them. James II and George IV could not (and arguably what James doing was perfectly legitimate).
Time's have changed. I don't think Charles could survive interfering.
I agree.Charles is highly eccentric and has very decided views on very controversial topics.
Edit - and you are still being plagued by rogue apostrophes.
Their is fewest thing's worstest than an rogues' apostrophe's.
The spelling chequer on your pea sea seams two bee buggered.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
The members look set to back the candidate the MPs overwhelmingly backed too. From the MPs who voted between the final two contenders Boris won the backing of 67.5% of MPs to 32.5% for Hunt. I expect the final members result will be similar to that, just a bit more heavily pro-Boris but not that far off.
It’s a bit of a silly argument. When Juncker was appointed as the “candidate of the EU Parliament” Eurosceptics ridiculed it because most people “weren’t really voting for him” (and didn’t know who he was). Now they complain that Von deer Leyden isn’t legitimate because she wasn’t someone drawn from the EU Parliament. Short of abolishing the post, what process would be acceptable?
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
I joined a year or two ago, when there was talk of the nutter wing getting elected, JRM etc.
My civic is duty to give a vote to the less dogmatic side. Accordingly Hunt has at least one vote.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
The members look set to back the candidate the MPs overwhelmingly backed too. From the MPs who voted between the final two contenders Boris won the backing of 67.5% of MPs to 32.5% for Hunt. I expect the final members result will be similar to that, just a bit more heavily pro-Boris but not that far off.
Would the MPs have backed him if he wasn't the overwhelming choice of the members? I doubt it.
But yes those MPs who supported Boris clearly share responsibility if Corbyn is elected for giving the electorate the worst pair of leading candidates ever.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
I joined a year or two ago, when there was talk of the nutter wing getting elected, JRM etc.
My civic is duty to give a vote to the less dogmatic side. Accordingly Hunt has at least one vote.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
I didn't vote for Johnson, but he's still preferable to Corbyn.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
Any "Conservative " who would vote to install Corbyn as PM would have to regarded as the excrement of the devil.
Well their party membership is sadly driving the country that way by appointing an untrustworthy incompetent buffoon as their leader. Perhaps the members responsible should be the ones viewed as such.
I didn't vote for Johnson, but he's still preferable to Corbyn.
In normal circumstances clearly, but not if he is going to prorogue parliament, i.e stage a coup, to deliver no deal. That would be a major change to the UK and has no mandate at all. I doubt he will do it, but if he refuses to say he won't then as we get closer to September Corbyn bizarrely becomes the safer choice.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Ha Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable. Corbyn would be voted as PM by diehard Remainer MPs for ONE reason and ONE reason alone to betray the Leave vote of 17 million voters.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk.
Seats which had been Labour for generations could fall to the Brexit Party while Boris would sweep up in more marginal Labour Leave seats
Only around 10% of Labour 2017 voters are backing the Brexit Party .
This assumption that they’ll clean up in Labour Leave seats isn’t based on reality.
Even if there’s a pact between the Tories and BP how would that work . Are the BP not going to stand in certain seats , I can’t see Labour voters switching to the Tories .
And will the Tories stand aside in certain seats . I can’t see them doing that .
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
What you consistently fail to appreciate though is that Labour voters do not share your Brexit obsession - even those who voted Leave. Other issues would easily override it.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
Labour will go for an election because, well, at the moment, they are the largest Party, unless YouGov is right, and everyone else is wrong. And, it has been their sole consistent policy since the last GE.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
What you consistently fail to appreciate though is that Labour voters do not share your Brexit obsession - even those who voted Leave. Other issues would easily override it.
Good point , that’s been backed up by research . Labour Leavers are less likely to prioritize that .
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal issolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
What you consistently fail to appreciate though is that Labour voters do not share your Brexit obsession - even those who voted Leave. Other issues would easily override it.
Labour Leave voters backed Corbyn on other issues in 2017 as he promised to deliver Brexit.
If however Corbyn completely betrays their Brexit vote by allying with posh TORIES like Grieve and the LDs to prevent Brexit being delivered in October as promised those same Labour Leave voters will defect to the Brexit Party in droves
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
The Brexit Party would need to double that vote tally to take the parliamentary seats. Do you think there are lots of shy Brexiteers there who didn't turn out in May?
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
I thought you said it would boost the Boris-led Tories? You don't think he'd be competitive with Farage?
Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?
So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.
Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?
It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.
If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
I thought you said it would boost the Boris-led Tories? You don't think he'd be competitive with Farage?
It would boost the Boris led Tory Party in the 50 or so most marginal Labour Leave seats.
In the others Boris will let Farage dine on Labour Leave seats as while the likes of Pontefract and Hull would never vote Tory as the European elections showed they will certainly vote Brexit Party
It would boost the Boris led Tory Party in the 50 or so most marginal Labour Leave seats.
In the others Boris will let Farage dine on Labour Leave seats as while the likes of Pontefract and Hull would never vote Tory as the European elections showed they will certainly vote Brexit Party
So you're going to have an electoral pact with Farage and withdraw Tory candidates?
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
I repeat the point made to HYUFD about Labour voters not being Brexit obsessed - and the 37% EU election turnout reinforces my confidence in that view. I am not particularly well briefed re- the legal technicalities that might arise here, but I do ponder whether an election held in November - post 31st October No Deal - which led to a new Government being formed , whether the EU would still be open to new negotiations etc. I recognise that primary Legislation would be needed in our own Parliament to effectively repeal or ammend the law which had come into force on 31st October.
It’s a bit of a silly argument. When Juncker was appointed as the “candidate of the EU Parliament” Eurosceptics ridiculed it because most people “weren’t really voting for him” (and didn’t know who he was). Now they complain that Von deer Leyden isn’t legitimate because she wasn’t someone drawn from the EU Parliament. Short of abolishing the post, what process would be acceptable?
How about an election by the public?
Like our Prime Minister, y'mean?...
Yes our PM was elected to the Commons by the public.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
The Brexit Party would need to double that vote tally to take the parliamentary seats. Do you think there are lots of shy Brexiteers there who didn't turn out in May?
18, 000 votes was more than enough to win Hull East for example in 2017.
The Tories would tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour and the Tories plus Brexit Party plus UKIP got 23 000 votes in Hull in the European Parliament elections
It would boost the Boris led Tory Party in the 50 or so most marginal Labour Leave seats.
In the others Boris will let Farage dine on Labour Leave seats as while the likes of Pontefract and Hull would never vote Tory as the European elections showed they will certainly vote Brexit Party
So you're going to have an electoral pact with Farage and withdraw Tory candidates?
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
I thought you said it would boost the Boris-led Tories? You don't think he'd be competitive with Farage?
It would boost the Boris led Tory Party in the 50 or so most marginal Labour Leave seats
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
Labour will go for an election because, well, at the moment, they are the largest Party, unless YouGov is right, and everyone else is wrong. And, it has been their sole consistent policy since the last GE.
BMG and MORI also put the Conservatives ahead, but in GE conditions I'd expect Conservative and Labour support to both rise.
In theory: Taxis In practice: Ttube. You have to queue for taxis, they never take the quick way, there's always a problem.
*Strolls on to 2145 to Exeter with 2 minutes in hand by taking Victoria and Bakerloo lines*. Thank you, and to @AlastairMeeks. PB hive mind triumphs again.
It would boost the Boris led Tory Party in the 50 or so most marginal Labour Leave seats.
In the others Boris will let Farage dine on Labour Leave seats as while the likes of Pontefract and Hull would never vote Tory as the European elections showed they will certainly vote Brexit Party
So you're going to have an electoral pact with Farage and withdraw Tory candidates?
If Corbyn blocked Brexit in alliance with the LDs and SNP that would of course be on the table in many Northern and Midlands Labour Leave seats beyond the Tory range
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
I don't think they'd wipe the board, but I do think Labour would finish with fewer seats than 2017.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
-
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
I repeat the point made to HYUFD about Labour voters not being Brexit obsessed - and the 37% EU election turnout reinforces my confidence in that view. I am not particularly well briefed re- the legal technicalities that might arise here, but I do ponder whether an election held in November - post 31st October No Deal - which led to a new Government being formed , whether the EU would still be open to new negotiations etc. I recognise that primary Legislation would be needed in our own Parliament to effectively repeal or ammend the law which had come into force on 31st October.
The EU would certainly be open to negotiations but it will be much more complex, I think (not sure) that anything post no deal requires the assents of all the various national parliaments for example. Potential Labour voters in cities and university towns certainly care about stopping no deal.
If Boris calls an election timed to block parliament voting against no deal, and Corbyn accepts with no Labour MPs opposing it leading not just to a crash out, but a crash out with no parliament to hold the govt to account during what would be our greatest crisis since ww2, LDs would be favourite for most seats imo. I cant see events unfolding that way though.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal issolution.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
What you consistently fail to appreciate though is that Labour voters do not share your Brexit obsession - even those who voted Leave. Other issues would easily override it.
Labour Leave voters backed Corbyn on other issues in 2017 as he promised to deliver Brexit.
If however Corbyn completely betrays their Brexit vote by allying with posh TORIES like Grieve and the LDs to prevent Brexit being delivered in October as promised those same Labour Leave voters will defect to the Brexit Party in droves
But those are the views of a Brexit obsessive - and you are in the company of many. I really doubt your ability to look objectively at the electoral logistics here.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
If Labour lose seats in South Wales, which is highly likely, it won't be to Brexit, it will be to PC, the LDs and the Conservatives, and not for the reasons you suggest.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
Labour will go for an election because, well, at the moment, they are the largest Party, unless YouGov is right, and everyone else is wrong. And, it has been their sole consistent policy since the last GE.
BMG and MORI also put the Conservatives ahead, but in GE conditions I'd expect Conservative and Labour support to both rise.
I agree with that - though historically election campaigns have tended to favour the Opposition party.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
If Labour lose seats in South Wales, which is highly likely, it won't be to Brexit, it will be to PC, the LDs and the Conservatives, and not for the reasons you suggest.
No it wouldn't, the Brexit Party swept the board in the South Wales valleys in the European Parliament elections.
Plaid and the Tories and LDs might win some seats in Mid and North Wales and the West coast but in the Valleys it would be all Brexit Party
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
Labour will go for an election because, well, at the moment, they are the largest Party, unless YouGov is right, and everyone else is wrong. And, it has been their sole consistent policy since the last GE.
BMG and MORI also put the Conservatives ahead, but in GE conditions I'd expect Conservative and Labour support to both rise.
Yeah. Fair enough. Posted without checking . Nonetheless, Labour will support a GE because they are not in government, and a GE means they could be in government. Simple. They enthusiastically supported one in 2017 from a much worse polling position ( at least in terms of % behind the leading party).
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
I don't think they'd wipe the board, but I do think Labour would finish with fewer seats than 2017.
Thus giving Boris a majority or at least Boris plus Brexit Party
O/T can anyone explain why the Guardian have only started their detailed backward looking expose of Johnson’s back history in the last week, after he has probably already been elected? Of course some of it is fairly desperate stuff, however valid it might be, but the latest detail about his time as London Mayor I think could have been genuinely damaging if raised earlier.
Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.
Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.
It’s a bit of a silly argument. When Juncker was appointed as the “candidate of the EU Parliament” Eurosceptics ridiculed it because most people “weren’t really voting for him” (and didn’t know who he was). Now they complain that Von deer Leyden isn’t legitimate because she wasn’t someone drawn from the EU Parliament. Short of abolishing the post, what process would be acceptable?
How about an election by the public?
Like our Prime Minister, y'mean?...
Yes our PM was elected to the Commons by the public.
[We seem to be going in a circle]
She was elected to the Commons as a MP by the public of Maidenhead She was appointed (not elected) as PM on the Queen on the assumption that she could get a Queen's Speech passed by the House. The Queen's Speech was passed by the House.
Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk
So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got well over 50% there, I expect a Boris led Tory Party would win it back.
Peterborough did see a 4% swing from Con to Lab with the Labour majority over the Tories increasing to over 3000. Moreover, the by election result is likely to split the anti-Labour vote there next time - with the Brexit Party being able to claim it starts as the the main rival to Labour.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.
Why?
BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER
I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.
The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.
Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.
Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.
Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
I don't think they'd wipe the board, but I do think Labour would finish with fewer seats than 2017.
Thus giving Boris a majority or at least Boris plus Brexit Party
'Thus'? It is not a 'thus' What if the LDs get 50 - 100 seats or even the Monster Raving Loony Party. There is no 'thus' there. You are making an assumption. It may be a well founded assumption, but an assumption nevertheless.
I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
My friend you seem to have made every prediction under the sun in recent days. It all reminds me of the Tory thinking about the 2017 GE that they could convert huge polling leads into gains of lots of Labour seats. When push came to shove, they all stayed Labour. Whatever their grumbles with Corbyn, the Labour vote is tribal and just not obsessive enough about Brexit to switch like that - to the Tories!
As for the Brexit party sweeping the board, come back to us when they have an MP. Ever. Anywhere. If they posed any threat whatsoever of winning seats in a GE they’d have won peterborough and be scaring the LDs and Tories in Brecon. But they didn’t and they won’t.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
.
Fine, probably suits Boris too, he gets Leavers largely fully behind him and against Corbyn who still splits Remainers with the LDs and the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party set their sights on dozens of Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands after Corbyn blocks Brexit just as May did
But the electoral dynamics would be likely to change a lot - with Corbyn fighting the election as the incumbent caretaker PM.
An incumbent caretaker PM only there thanks to posh Tory diehard Remainers like Grieve and the LDs and SNP in order to block Brexit, I am sure that will go down a storm in Dagenham, Barrow, Lincoln, Barnsley, Wigan, Newport, Pontefract etc
The more relevant point though, is that he would be a new PM perhaps enjoying a Corbyn bounce!
No, the bounce would be to Boris and Farage in Labour Leave seats, with Corbyn easily portrayed as a puppet of Grieve, Soubry and the LDs and SNP
You are a broken record.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
Ha Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable. Corbyn would be voted as PM by diehard Remainer MPs for ONE reason and ONE reason alone to betray the Leave vote of 17 million voters.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk.
Seats which had been Labour for generations could fall to the Brexit Party while Boris would sweep up in more marginal Labour Leave seats
Is it a working class leave vote in the North? Or is it older people who happen to be working class. I am afraid I am from down south but I have an extended working class family, and it is pretty clear that it is only the ones with grey hair who support Brexit. I can't believe that it is that different in the north. It isn't another country.
What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .
Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.
I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.
Why?
BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER
I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.
The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.
Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
In scenario 1 if Corbyn enables extension and blocks Brexit opposed by Boris it does nothing to weaken Tory support as the Tories would have opposed extension but it does enable Farage and the Brexit Party to cannibalise Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and South Wales.
In scenario 2 Corbyn is I agree cannabalised by the LDs in London and university cities if he enables No Deal Brexit but either way he is toast
Comments
Edit - and you are still being plagued by rogue apostrophes.
Quickest way from Victoria to Paddington at this time of night cab or tube?
So far we’ve not had a government pursuing no deal as a policy. We don’t know yet how exactly the markets might react , how will business react .
It’s likely Johnson will want to wait till the very last minute before making that official policy .
There are issues though with legislation needed for a no deal . The government has avoided a raft of bills coming back to the Commons for fear of amendments but the trade , immigration bills etc need to go through .
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-team-considering-plan-to-suspend-parliament-in-run-up-to-brexit-11764347
It seems every approach will have its pros and cons, supporters and detractors. Given it needs to work across 28/27 countries used to different systems, and gain support across the political spectrum it is likely that every method would be controversial. Is it really so bad given the constraints.
The President holds the powers they hold regardless of how they are elected, or in this case not, by the public. We already hold 'federal' EU elections to the rubber stamping Parliament so why not to this post?
I don't expect them to gift so many voters to TBP, though.
Events will drive a Boris govt like never before. It will be chaotic, inconsistent and probably short and pointless.
Corbyn would get the biggest bounce ever. Literally a hundred plus of his critics (from his own party backbenchers and opposition parties and former defectors) must have just united to say he is the person to be PM.
- There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th
- Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered
- The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?
Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.
My civic is duty to give a vote to the less dogmatic side. Accordingly Hunt has at least one vote.
But yes those MPs who supported Boris clearly share responsibility if Corbyn is elected for giving the electorate the worst pair of leading candidates ever.
https://twitter.com/amichaistein1/status/1151221094713569281?s=21
In theory: Taxis
In practice: Ttube.
You have to queue for taxis, they never take the quick way, there's always a problem.
The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk.
Seats which had been Labour for generations could fall to the Brexit Party while Boris would sweep up in more marginal Labour Leave seats
This assumption that they’ll clean up in Labour Leave seats isn’t based on reality.
Even if there’s a pact between the Tories and BP how would that work . Are the BP not going to stand in certain seats , I can’t see Labour voters switching to the Tories .
And will the Tories stand aside in certain seats . I can’t see them doing that .
How exactly would this pact work ?
https://twitter.com/hitango666/status/1151226872409182209?s=21
The Democratic Party is going full Corbyn.
And, it has been their sole consistent policy since the last GE.
https://www.hullccnews.co.uk/27/05/2019/european-parliamentary-election-results/
If however Corbyn completely betrays their Brexit vote by allying with posh TORIES like Grieve and the LDs to prevent Brexit being delivered in October as promised those same Labour Leave voters will defect to the Brexit Party in droves
In the others Boris will let Farage dine on Labour Leave seats as while the likes of Pontefract and Hull would never vote Tory as the European elections showed they will certainly vote Brexit Party
I am not particularly well briefed re- the legal technicalities that might arise here, but I do ponder whether an election held in November - post 31st October No Deal - which led to a new Government being formed , whether the EU would still be open to new negotiations etc. I recognise that primary Legislation would be needed in our own Parliament to effectively repeal or ammend the law which had come into force on 31st October.
[We seem to be going in a circle]
The Tories would tactically vote Brexit Party to beat Labour and the Tories plus Brexit Party plus UKIP got 23 000 votes in Hull in the European Parliament elections
If Boris calls an election timed to block parliament voting against no deal, and Corbyn accepts with no Labour MPs opposing it leading not just to a crash out, but a crash out with no parliament to hold the govt to account during what would be our greatest crisis since ww2, LDs would be favourite for most seats imo. I cant see events unfolding that way though.
Plaid and the Tories and LDs might win some seats in Mid and North Wales and the West coast but in the Valleys it would be all Brexit Party
Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.
She was appointed (not elected) as PM on the Queen on the assumption that she could get a Queen's Speech passed by the House.
The Queen's Speech was passed by the House.
Why?
BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER
I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.
The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.
Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
As for the Brexit party sweeping the board, come back to us when they have an MP. Ever. Anywhere. If they posed any threat whatsoever of winning seats in a GE they’d have won peterborough and be scaring the LDs and Tories in Brecon. But they didn’t and they won’t.
In scenario 2 Corbyn is I agree cannabalised by the LDs in London and university cities if he enables No Deal Brexit but either way he is toast