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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election
Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly'
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This is Catch-22. Can't appear to have Brexit without an election, can't have an election before Brexit.
The exception is if Boris triggers an election without calling one. EG pushes hard enough for an October exit that he gets VONC'd triggering one. In that case Boris will have full credibility still with Brexiteers (and may even get the Brexit Party to stand down).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49007472
We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
Has learned nowt from Theresa May.
Never beaten, always cheated.
The thing is that if he starts off with a very 'no-deal' cabinet it could make the VoNC happen immediately in order to prevent no-deal. it also wouldn't prevent a 'caretaker government' with someone put forward for PM who is seen as unambitious (Ken Clarke say) who would get the extension and then call the election without standing in it himself.
We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
The ERG should really be betting on Hunt, shouldn't they?
Clarke stays on as PM from outside Parliament or from the Lords...
The U.K. enters a golden era of good government...
So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
383 in favour
327 against
22 abstentions
1 void
Threshold was 374
That was why the October 31st deadline is so stupid - Boris should be extending it to Jan 31st and calling an election in October to try and break the Parliamentary deadlock. The we will leave on October 31st statement completely removed the only way to ensure Parliament wasn't an obstacle
This why Hunt would be a Continuity May disaster. Not calling another election, not forcing a decision and just kicking the can again and again. Pointless!
Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?
It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.
If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?
Again and again we come back to the fundamental. Brexit is slowly but surely strangling the Conservative Party - the irony being this was all meant to resolve the problem within the Party. Boris knows it so his insistence we have to leave whatever the consequences on 31/10 is primarily based on political self-preservation.
Once Brexit is delivered, the Conservatives will have to deal with the consequences especially if we leave without a WA but that will be another battle and progress. Stuck in the fly trap of extensions means certain replacement by Farage and the TBP.
Personally, I would like a direct election across Europe, but surely that is a trapping of a superstate opposed by yourself.
Besides I don't see why this Parliament should be let off the hook so easily over actually making a decision? Especially when the likely outcome is another hung Parliament but this time with Farage in the mix.
Parliament has a duty to fulfill and putting a deadline in means they should actually fulfill their duty rather than rejecting everything petulantly.
As for direct democracy why would I oppose it? I'm a fan of democracy. If she is to hold power she should be elected, as simple as that.
Her first acid test will be Selmayr. If she sacks him tomorrow without compensation in the grounds he was illegally appointed we will know she has potential.
If she lets him stay, we'll know she's a supine fool and will be another failure.
Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.
von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
Jo is a strong candidate but to vote for her simply because she is a woman and a contrast to the other party leaders means the LDs are defined by the other parties and I'd rather be defined by who we are and what we want to be.
Ed is an excellent campaigner and has Westminster experience and strong environmental credentials. We will need a Paddy-style street fighter to be heard once Boris is in charge and we start hearing his "tsunami of Conservative ideas".
That's not to say Jo won't be an excellent leader if she prevails and the choice for me has been very difficult.
I wonder if we are heading for one of those pivotal "moments" when breakthrough and/or realignment becomes a real possibility.
Again, this is not difficult stuff.
Naughty!: The Life and Loves of Boris
https://www.channel5.com/show/naughty-the-life-and-loves-of-boris-johnson/
1 an opinion poll when there is no election is a free hit but when actually it’s about forming a government other policies matter, what are their other policies.
2.: they are not a political party by any stretch of the imagination, they are a movement led by three or four people who make all the decisions this feeds down to..
3. They have no ground war organizational capability, this only comes from people of a like mind having faith in each other to actually go out and campaign which is built up through socials fund raisers and a membership given the right to select their preferred candidate.
4. They clearly have no data beyond that generated through social media which I do not believe, however powerful it is perceived, is mor important than x years of canvas returns and voting history.
5 and the killer in my mind is given the collection of fruit cakes they put together for the EU elections can you imagine what will happen when the board of TBP Ltd selects 600+ candidates with no involvement of local communities etc
When they start standing in local government elections and build the needed infrastructure it will be time to worry but an opinion poll is just that an opinion poll and not a vote cast in a ballot box. If they win B&R then I’ll eat my words but until then TBP Ltd are going nowhere
Or did they actually want him to win?
If the head of government is elected directly then the public should elect, if elected indirectly then it should be someone who was still elected directly to the indirect body. Not complicated.
They have not only been calling for a general election it's all they've been doing. I just don't see them saying, nor is Jezza bright enough to say "yes but..."
I wouldn't expect a local State level Representative in Texas to suddenly be elevated to POTUS without the public getting involved.
It has to be better for everyone though to have Boris live up to his word and deliver something or other that passes for Brexit. Once that is done then Labour, LDs, or whoever can directly put the case for rejoin - and perhaps a Boris deal could have a rejoin clause (keep the pound perhaps).
Corbyn and Labour don't really want a GE now. They'll easily find a consensus set of policies post any sort of a Brexit event.
Getting the completely stupid issue of referendum vs parliament out of the way will be a great boon to politics. (Disaster or Cornucopia for everything else - who knows)
We should never hold another referendum ever. We may miss out on Boaty McBoatface, but we'll also miss out on the political nutters holding center-stage.
Goodbye Farage, goodbye Letwin, goodbye Soubry, goodbye Vince, goodbye Patterson, goodbye Gardiner.
I may possibly have inserted a couple there in the hope that they're 'only-here-for-the-Brexit'
Btw, do you support direct election to the EU. An EU directly elected President for example?
I was talking to a lifelong (very old) Tory voter today who told me they would vote LD if Boris becomes leader. The person did not want to stray from the Tories in this years locals and EU elections so did not vote. Boris is seen as an idiot and not a serious politician. The LD could easily get 40 - 60 seats in any GE. I doubt they would get above 60 in a single election but if they did and it stops Brexit that would be great!
You normally always capitalise first letter in a sentence, but you also normally don't change capitalisations in names, so which rule takes precedence?
If the EU is to have a President it should be directly elected. Otherwise it should be indirectly elected from MEPs.