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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an ea

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly'

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Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    edited July 2019
    First, like the Lib Dems! in Brecon and Radnorshire...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    You’ve convinced me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    Good article Mr Meeks, I completely agree.

    This is Catch-22. Can't appear to have Brexit without an election, can't have an election before Brexit.

    The exception is if Boris triggers an election without calling one. EG pushes hard enough for an October exit that he gets VONC'd triggering one. In that case Boris will have full credibility still with Brexiteers (and may even get the Brexit Party to stand down).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2019
    Just seen on the BBC the dramatic new footage of the London Bridge murderers being challenged by unarmed police and civilians. The bravery of ordinary people in extraordinary and chilling circumstances is remarkable :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49007472
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    See all Brexit Party whinges about Peterborough "unfounded" say Cambridgeshire Police. No credible evidence whatsoever.
    Never beaten, always cheated.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    Legislation is not required. We just have to Believe in Britain™
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    There is also a timetable issue for the VoNC if it happens after the summer recess... in order for the election to happen (and assuming that the VoNC happens during the first day back (4/9/19) then, given the two weeks, the election would be called on 19/9/19 with the 25 working day timetable would put the election day on 24/10/19. any later than 5/9 for the VoNC would put election day on 31/10/19 or later.

    The thing is that if he starts off with a very 'no-deal' cabinet it could make the VoNC happen immediately in order to prevent no-deal. it also wouldn't prevent a 'caretaker government' with someone put forward for PM who is seen as unambitious (Ken Clarke say) who would get the extension and then call the election without standing in it himself.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Given the way the Tories are going - with talk of proroguing Parliament and the rest - they’ll soon be abolishing elections anyway and we won’t have to bother our pretty little heads with all this nonsense. The only vote which counts, apparently, is the one on June 23, 2016.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    @HYUFD has assured me that Boris is going to renegotiate the backstop to thunderous applause.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited July 2019

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    As a corollary, there will be a GE if Johnson gets No Confidenced against his will and no one else can form a majority. Which means Johnson won't do anything that risks that happening. Which means he's currently lying to us all.

    The ERG should really be betting on Hunt, shouldn't they?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    There is also a timetable issue for the VoNC if it happens after the summer recess... in order for the election to happen (and assuming that the VoNC happens during the first day back (4/9/19) then, given the two weeks, the election would be called on 19/9/19 with the 25 working day timetable would put the election day on 24/10/19. any later than 5/9 for the VoNC would put election day on 31/10/19 or later.

    The thing is that if he starts off with a very 'no-deal' cabinet it could make the VoNC happen immediately in order to prevent no-deal. it also wouldn't prevent a 'caretaker government' with someone put forward for PM who is seen as unambitious (Ken Clarke say) who would get the extension and then call the election without standing in it himself.

    How about this for a scenario? Ken Clarke becomes PM post a VONC with a mandate to agree an extension prior to an election in which he won’t be standing. Outcome of election is a hopelessly hung parliament with no viable Govt of any sort, let alone one with a majority for a new Brexit policy.

    Clarke stays on as PM from outside Parliament or from the Lords...

    The U.K. enters a golden era of good government...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    JackW said:

    Just seen on the BBC the dramatic new footage of the London Bridge murderers being challenged by unarmed police and civilians. The bravery of ordinary people in extraordinary and chilling circumstances is remarkable :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49007472

    Yes truly impressive. Those off duty police and bakers deserve medals.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    alex. said:

    spudgfsh said:

    There is also a timetable issue for the VoNC if it happens after the summer recess... in order for the election to happen (and assuming that the VoNC happens during the first day back (4/9/19) then, given the two weeks, the election would be called on 19/9/19 with the 25 working day timetable would put the election day on 24/10/19. any later than 5/9 for the VoNC would put election day on 31/10/19 or later.

    The thing is that if he starts off with a very 'no-deal' cabinet it could make the VoNC happen immediately in order to prevent no-deal. it also wouldn't prevent a 'caretaker government' with someone put forward for PM who is seen as unambitious (Ken Clarke say) who would get the extension and then call the election without standing in it himself.

    How about this for a scenario? Ken Clarke becomes PM post a VONC with a mandate to agree an extension prior to an election in which he won’t be standing. Outcome of election is a hopelessly hung parliament with no viable Govt of any sort, let alone one with a majority for a new Brexit policy.

    Clarke stays on as PM from outside Parliament or from the Lords...
    I think that depends on whether Farage and Brexit stand - if they do I suspect there would be enough MPs for a pro-revoke coalition if Brexit don't stand even more hung than this Parliament looks very likely with the Lib Dems and SNP both 50 or so seats holding the balance of power.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2019
    MEPs vote on Ursula Van Der Something

    383 in favour
    327 against
    22 abstentions
    1 void


    Threshold was 374

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    And the party conferences will steal yet more time.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
    But there is no majority in Parliament for any solution so how do you force a decision when No one wants responsibility for it.

    That was why the October 31st deadline is so stupid - Boris should be extending it to Jan 31st and calling an election in October to try and break the Parliamentary deadlock. The we will leave on October 31st statement completely removed the only way to ensure Parliament wasn't an obstacle
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
    Also the deadline is 31st Oct because the new commission starts 1st Nov. They wanted this phase of brexit done and dusted so the new commission could get on with other things and the organised photo ops where the member state leaders meet are not constantly about Brexit.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by Tory party members - whom (as any fule kno) are the only people entitled to vote.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
    Also the deadline is 31st Oct because the new commission starts 1st Nov. They wanted this phase of brexit done and dusted so the new commission could get on with other things and the organised photo ops where the member state leaders meet are not constantly about Brexit.
    Which is reasonable. Why drag this on for the sake of it?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    The October 31 red line really was the height of folly. Absolute own goal for the sake of securing the leadership. But one which ensures that leadership will be a failure.
    We can't leave with a deal because there is no majority for it.
    We can't leave without a Deal, because there is literally no legislation in place for it.
    Has learned nowt from Theresa May.

    What was the alternative? What would an extension be used for?

    We have extended and extended again already and what's changed? The EU say they're not negotiating any further. So unless they're lying we either need to accept this deal, reject it and go for no deal or reject it and go for revocation. None of those require an extension past Halloween.
    An extension makes up for the 3 months lost by this leadership election, the fact everyone takes August off and the fact after the leadership election we don't have time for both an election and the required paperwork unless the election is called for next week...
    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.
    But there is no majority in Parliament for any solution so how do you force a decision when No one wants responsibility for it.

    That was why the October 31st deadline is so stupid - Boris should be extending it to Jan 31st and calling an election in October to try and break the Parliamentary deadlock. The we will leave on October 31st statement completely removed the only way to ensure Parliament wasn't an obstacle
    If an election isn't realistic then the only way to make this Parliament decide is by having a hard deadline. That is how you force Parliament to vote for a solution and if it fails to vote for one then the default occurs (no deal).

    This why Hunt would be a Continuity May disaster. Not calling another election, not forcing a decision and just kicking the can again and again. Pointless!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Foxy said:

    JackW said:

    Just seen on the BBC the dramatic new footage of the London Bridge murderers being challenged by unarmed police and civilians. The bravery of ordinary people in extraordinary and chilling circumstances is remarkable :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49007472

    Yes truly impressive. Those off duty police and bakers deserve medals.

    All happening only yards from our office. Incredibly sobering to see it all play out in passages and streets I know so well. Really brings it home.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?

    So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.

    Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?

    It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.

    If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?

    So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.

    Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?

    It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.

    If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?
    Surely there's time for a VONC and election to be called before recess?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.

    That's easy to answer. The leadership candidates should have made clear that the October 31st deadline was impractical, and therefore proposed an extension (subject obviously to EU consent) to give time for one more go at negotiating something parliament can agree, or failing that for putting in place no-deal mitigation measures.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,226
    Hard to tell if that's a good or bad thing, but the BXP was against her so that gives us a bit of a steer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.

    That's easy to answer. The leadership candidates should have made clear that the October 31st deadline was impractical, and therefore proposed an extension (subject obviously to EU consent) to give time for one more go at negotiating something parliament can agree, or failing that for putting in place no-deal mitigation measures.
    But the EU are saying they won't negotiate and Parliament is saying it won't put in place mitigation measures. So what then?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343

    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.

    That's easy to answer. The leadership candidates should have made clear that the October 31st deadline was impractical, and therefore proposed an extension (subject obviously to EU consent) to give time for one more go at negotiating something parliament can agree, or failing that for putting in place no-deal mitigation measures.
    Those who did anything like that got beaten. So it's easier said than done.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On topic: Alastair is right on his point about an agreement with Corbyn to hold a GE, but I'm not sure the argument works for the VONC route - I can't see any circumstances in which an alternative government could be formed in the 14-day window.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    rcs1000 said:

    Whilst I do understand and agree with Mr Meeks' reasoning about intentionally calling a GE, doesn't Boris' insistence on leaving on 31st October with or without a deal make it extremely likely there will be a VoNC and a subsequent GE? I know the article says that there is 14 days for an alternative Government to be formed but given the history of conflicting Parliamentary votes over the last year and their ability to vote down all options at the same time does that not make it very likely that a VoNC results in a GE?

    So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.

    Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?

    It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.

    If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?
    Genuinely unknown territory. Never been there with FTPA in place. TM must stay PM until someone else is believed by her to be able to form a government. I think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:

    So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.

    Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?

    It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.

    If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?

    In that scenario we really are in uncharted constitutional waters, and the biggest constitutional crisis since at least WWII. I don't think anyone really knows the answer, but my guess would be that Theresa May stays as PM while an election is held. It would obviously be highly contentious either way,
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.

    That's easy to answer. The leadership candidates should have made clear that the October 31st deadline was impractical, and therefore proposed an extension (subject obviously to EU consent) to give time for one more go at negotiating something parliament can agree, or failing that for putting in place no-deal mitigation measures.
    But the EU are saying they won't negotiate and Parliament is saying it won't put in place mitigation measures. So what then?
    Then you execute plan C and call an election, but with the difference that you have time to do it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Evening all :)

    Again and again we come back to the fundamental. Brexit is slowly but surely strangling the Conservative Party - the irony being this was all meant to resolve the problem within the Party. Boris knows it so his insistence we have to leave whatever the consequences on 31/10 is primarily based on political self-preservation.

    Once Brexit is delivered, the Conservatives will have to deal with the consequences especially if we leave without a WA but that will be another battle and progress. Stuck in the fly trap of extensions means certain replacement by Farage and the TBP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On topic: Alastair is right on his point about an agreement with Corbyn to hold a GE, but I'm not sure the argument works for the VONC route - I can't see any circumstances in which an alternative government could be formed in the 14-day window.

    I think it’s unlikely but not impossible.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Indirect democracy. She was nominated by elected leaders and confirmed by an elected legislature.

    Personally, I would like a direct election across Europe, but surely that is a trapping of a superstate opposed by yourself.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If you want an election yes. But the Tories would be insane to call an election before Brexit.

    So for all those people saying the deadline is mad, what else should be done instead? Kicking the can for the sake of kicking the can just drags out uncertainty and is damaging to business. We know the options and unless there is a new one we need to make a decision and that can be done in the time remaining.

    That's easy to answer. The leadership candidates should have made clear that the October 31st deadline was impractical, and therefore proposed an extension (subject obviously to EU consent) to give time for one more go at negotiating something parliament can agree, or failing that for putting in place no-deal mitigation measures.
    But the EU are saying they won't negotiate and Parliament is saying it won't put in place mitigation measures. So what then?
    Then you execute plan C and call an election, but with the difference that you have time to do it.
    And if you think its not realistic to call an election before Brexit, because of Farage and the Brexit Party, then what? If Parliament is hung again next time as the polls suggest, then what?

    Besides I don't see why this Parliament should be let off the hook so easily over actually making a decision? Especially when the likely outcome is another hung Parliament but this time with Farage in the mix.

    Parliament has a duty to fulfill and putting a deadline in means they should actually fulfill their duty rather than rejecting everything petulantly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    I don't see why the President of the Commission isn't an MEP - then it would be no different to selecting an MP from parliament as PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Indirect democracy. She was nominated by elected leaders and confirmed by an elected legislature.

    Personally, I would like a direct election across Europe, but surely that is a trapping of a superstate opposed by yourself.
    Indirect democracy is not democracy when you widen it to everyone and anyone not even elected in the first place. If it was restricted to the MEPs elected then it would be democratic like our PM being an elected MP.

    As for direct democracy why would I oppose it? I'm a fan of democracy. If she is to hold power she should be elected, as simple as that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rcs1000 said:

    So, let's assume that Boris Johnson is elected Conservative leader next week.

    Let us then assume that four Conservatives publicly resign the whip. Can Mrs May recommend to the Palace that Mr Johnson has the confidence of the House?

    It's an incredibly contentious question. If she says "yes", then he becomes Prime Minister, and the instruments of government are his. It becomes (almost) in his power to get No Deal through by timing of the Queen's speech and the like.

    If she says "no", then what? Does Boris say "yes I do", and then we have a vote of confidence in the House? Could Mrs May, while lame duck PM, request an extension to Christmas so as to allow time for an election, irrespective of what happens in a VoNC?

    In that scenario we really are in uncharted constitutional waters, and the biggest constitutional crisis since at least WWII. I don't think anyone really knows the answer, but my guess would be that Theresa May stays as PM while an election is held. It would obviously be highly contentious either way,
    It would completely screw punters on the Theresa May exit date markets, and oh yes, uncharted constitutional waters, yes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Hard to tell if that's a good or bad thing, but the BXP was against her so that gives us a bit of a steer.
    It's hard to imagine she will be as bad as Juncker.

    Her first acid test will be Selmayr. If she sacks him tomorrow without compensation in the grounds he was illegally appointed we will know she has potential.

    If she lets him stay, we'll know she's a supine fool and will be another failure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    In the other and more important leadership election, I've voted for Ed Davey.

    Jo is a strong candidate but to vote for her simply because she is a woman and a contrast to the other party leaders means the LDs are defined by the other parties and I'd rather be defined by who we are and what we want to be.

    Ed is an excellent campaigner and has Westminster experience and strong environmental credentials. We will need a Paddy-style street fighter to be heard once Boris is in charge and we start hearing his "tsunami of Conservative ideas".

    That's not to say Jo won't be an excellent leader if she prevails and the choice for me has been very difficult.

    I wonder if we are heading for one of those pivotal "moments" when breakthrough and/or realignment becomes a real possibility.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I hope Scott P isn't watching Sky News...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    Indeed. Not by the public. Not good enough.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    Except MEPs.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
    No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Channel 5 tonight.
    Naughty!: The Life and Loves of Boris

    https://www.channel5.com/show/naughty-the-life-and-loves-of-boris-johnson/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    tlg86 said:

    I hope Scott P isn't watching Sky News...

    Why
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    Indeed. Not by the public. Not good enough.
    Prime Ministers are not elected to that role by the public. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    alex. said:

    spudgfsh said:

    There is also a timetable issue for the VoNC if it happens after the summer recess... in order for the election to happen (and assuming that the VoNC happens during the first day back (4/9/19) then, given the two weeks, the election would be called on 19/9/19 with the 25 working day timetable would put the election day on 24/10/19. any later than 5/9 for the VoNC would put election day on 31/10/19 or later.

    The thing is that if he starts off with a very 'no-deal' cabinet it could make the VoNC happen immediately in order to prevent no-deal. it also wouldn't prevent a 'caretaker government' with someone put forward for PM who is seen as unambitious (Ken Clarke say) who would get the extension and then call the election without standing in it himself.

    How about this for a scenario? Ken Clarke becomes PM post a VONC with a mandate to agree an extension prior to an election in which he won’t be standing. Outcome of election is a hopelessly hung parliament with no viable Govt of any sort, let alone one with a majority for a new Brexit policy.

    Clarke stays on as PM from outside Parliament or from the Lords...
    I think that depends on whether Farage and Brexit stand - if they do I suspect there would be enough MPs for a pro-revoke coalition if Brexit don't stand even more hung than this Parliament looks very likely with the Lib Dems and SNP both 50 or so seats holding the balance of power.
    People really need to actually think about how TBP Ltd win a single seat.

    1 an opinion poll when there is no election is a free hit but when actually it’s about forming a government other policies matter, what are their other policies.

    2.: they are not a political party by any stretch of the imagination, they are a movement led by three or four people who make all the decisions this feeds down to..

    3. They have no ground war organizational capability, this only comes from people of a like mind having faith in each other to actually go out and campaign which is built up through socials fund raisers and a membership given the right to select their preferred candidate.

    4. They clearly have no data beyond that generated through social media which I do not believe, however powerful it is perceived, is mor important than x years of canvas returns and voting history.

    5 and the killer in my mind is given the collection of fruit cakes they put together for the EU elections can you imagine what will happen when the board of TBP Ltd selects 600+ candidates with no involvement of local communities etc

    When they start standing in local government elections and build the needed infrastructure it will be time to worry but an opinion poll is just that an opinion poll and not a vote cast in a ballot box. If they win B&R then I’ll eat my words but until then TBP Ltd are going nowhere
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    stodge said:

    In the other and more important leadership election, I've voted for Ed Davey.

    Jo is a strong candidate but to vote for her simply because she is a woman and a contrast to the other party leaders means the LDs are defined by the other parties and I'd rather be defined by who we are and what we want to be.

    Ed is an excellent campaigner and has Westminster experience and strong environmental credentials. We will need a Paddy-style street fighter to be heard once Boris is in charge and we start hearing his "tsunami of Conservative ideas".

    That's not to say Jo won't be an excellent leader if she prevails and the choice for me has been very difficult.

    I wonder if we are heading for one of those pivotal "moments" when breakthrough and/or realignment becomes a real possibility.

    I couldn't decide between the two of them so decided that showing up the labour party for never having a woman leader is reason enough to vote for Jo Swinson.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
    No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
    So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    dixiedean said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    Except MEPs.
    And proposed by our elected heads of government
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    O/T can anyone explain why the Guardian have only started their detailed backward looking expose of Johnson’s back history in the last week, after he has probably already been elected? Of course some of it is fairly desperate stuff, however valid it might be, but the latest detail about his time as London Mayor I think could have been genuinely damaging if raised earlier.

    Or did they actually want him to win?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
    No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
    So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
    The Cabinet aren't elected but POTUS most certainly is and the Cabinet is appointed [and ratified] to serve him.

    If the head of government is elected directly then the public should elect, if elected indirectly then it should be someone who was still elected directly to the indirect body. Not complicated.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    If you're referring to constituencies, why do you ignore the fact that she was elected by the people of Hannover, as well as being elected by MEPs today?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Good article but I question whether Lab will get tricksy about it.

    They have not only been calling for a general election it's all they've been doing. I just don't see them saying, nor is Jezza bright enough to say "yes but..."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    And what happens if he loses that vote? Compare it with what would have happened had von der Leyen lost today.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    If you're referring to constituencies, why do you ignore the fact that she was elected by the people of Hannover, as well as being elected by MEPs today?
    She was elected to a foreign country to serve domestically in a foreign country.

    I wouldn't expect a local State level Representative in Texas to suddenly be elevated to POTUS without the public getting involved.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    Are you sure that's not an insult to pot plants....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    A GE campaign straddling 31st Oct would be interesting. Effectively taking HoC out of the loop for the period.

    It has to be better for everyone though to have Boris live up to his word and deliver something or other that passes for Brexit. Once that is done then Labour, LDs, or whoever can directly put the case for rejoin - and perhaps a Boris deal could have a rejoin clause (keep the pound perhaps).

    Corbyn and Labour don't really want a GE now. They'll easily find a consensus set of policies post any sort of a Brexit event.

    Getting the completely stupid issue of referendum vs parliament out of the way will be a great boon to politics. (Disaster or Cornucopia for everything else - who knows)

    We should never hold another referendum ever. We may miss out on Boaty McBoatface, but we'll also miss out on the political nutters holding center-stage.

    Goodbye Farage, goodbye Letwin, goodbye Soubry, goodbye Vince, goodbye Patterson, goodbye Gardiner.

    I may possibly have inserted a couple there in the hope that they're 'only-here-for-the-Brexit'

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
    No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
    So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
    They are appointed by a democratically elected head of the executive. Every four years voters get to choose who that person is.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    And what happens if he loses that vote? Compare it with what would have happened had von der Leyen lost today.
    In both cases new candidates acceptable to Parliament would be sought.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    Indeed. Not by the public. Not good enough.
    Prime Ministers are not elected to that role by the public. Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    No they were elected to the House of Commons and they are the Prime MP in the Commons. Not difficult.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    And what happens if he loses that vote? Compare it with what would have happened had von der Leyen lost today.
    They would have had to find someone else?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    In the other and more important leadership election, I've voted for Ed Davey.

    Jo is a strong candidate but to vote for her simply because she is a woman and a contrast to the other party leaders means the LDs are defined by the other parties and I'd rather be defined by who we are and what we want to be.

    Ed is an excellent campaigner and has Westminster experience and strong environmental credentials. We will need a Paddy-style street fighter to be heard once Boris is in charge and we start hearing his "tsunami of Conservative ideas".

    That's not to say Jo won't be an excellent leader if she prevails and the choice for me has been very difficult.

    I wonder if we are heading for one of those pivotal "moments" when breakthrough and/or realignment becomes a real possibility.

    The less said the better, life is difficult as a third party, if we squeak B&R by 500 it will be a brilliant result if we achieve gains at the next GE it will be great but we know it’s a hard won battle their is no tide going to sweep us into government but there does appear a glint of optimism on the horizon.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The French PM is effectively appointed by the French President.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    If you're referring to constituencies, why do you ignore the fact that she was elected by the people of Hannover, as well as being elected by MEPs today?
    She was elected to a foreign country to serve domestically in a foreign country.

    I wouldn't expect a local State level Representative in Texas to suddenly be elevated to POTUS without the public getting involved.
    Although. As I pointed out earlier, they are frequently raised to Cabinet level, or to the Supreme Court in exactly the same manner, regardless of whether they have been elected to owt or not.
    Btw, do you support direct election to the EU. An EU directly elected President for example?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    And what happens if he loses that vote? Compare it with what would have happened had von der Leyen lost today.
    In both cases new candidates acceptable to Parliament would be sought.
    We have a 14 day limit at which a new parliament will be elected. What happens in the EU? (I'm genuinely curious to know the answer).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    But Johnson was elected to Parliament in the first place. von der Leyen was not.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited July 2019
    stodge said:

    In the other and more important leadership election, I've voted for Ed Davey.

    Jo is a strong candidate but to vote for her simply because she is a woman and a contrast to the other party leaders means the LDs are defined by the other parties and I'd rather be defined by who we are and what we want to be.

    Ed is an excellent campaigner and has Westminster experience and strong environmental credentials. We will need a Paddy-style street fighter to be heard once Boris is in charge and we start hearing his "tsunami of Conservative ideas".

    That's not to say Jo won't be an excellent leader if she prevails and the choice for me has been very difficult.

    I wonder if we are heading for one of those pivotal "moments" when breakthrough and/or realignment becomes a real possibility.

    I prefer Jo to Ed but either of them has to be more dynamic than Vince.

    I was talking to a lifelong (very old) Tory voter today who told me they would vote LD if Boris becomes leader. The person did not want to stray from the Tories in this years locals and EU elections so did not vote. Boris is seen as an idiot and not a serious politician. The LD could easily get 40 - 60 seats in any GE. I doubt they would get above 60 in a single election but if they did and it stops Brexit that would be great!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    A question for grammar Nazi's: When starting a sentence with her name, is it 'von der Leyen' or Von der Leyen?

    You normally always capitalise first letter in a sentence, but you also normally don't change capitalisations in names, so which rule takes precedence?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    LibDems voting for a Conservative. No surprise there then.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    If you're referring to constituencies, why do you ignore the fact that she was elected by the people of Hannover, as well as being elected by MEPs today?
    She was elected to a foreign country to serve domestically in a foreign country.

    I wouldn't expect a local State level Representative in Texas to suddenly be elevated to POTUS without the public getting involved.
    Although. As I pointed out earlier, they are frequently raised to Cabinet level, or to the Supreme Court in exactly the same manner, regardless of whether they have been elected to owt or not.
    Btw, do you support direct election to the EU. An EU directly elected President for example?
    Yes.

    If the EU is to have a President it should be directly elected. Otherwise it should be indirectly elected from MEPs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    A question for grammar Nazi's: When starting a sentence with her name, is it 'von der Leyen' or Von der Leyen?

    You normally always capitalise first letter in a sentence, but you also normally don't change capitalisations in names, so which rule takes precedence?

    Eesh, Grammar Nazis, not Grammar Nazi's.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    alex. said:

    O/T can anyone explain why the Guardian have only started their detailed backward looking expose of Johnson’s back history in the last week, after he has probably already been elected? Of course some of it is fairly desperate stuff, however valid it might be, but the latest detail about his time as London Mayor I think could have been genuinely damaging if raised earlier.

    Or did they actually want him to win?

    You’ve answer your own question I think
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited July 2019

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    She was elected by MEPs today.

    Again, this is not difficult stuff.
    There was only one name on the ballot. Doesn't sound too democratic to me.
    It was a vote of confidence. What options do you want beyond yes and no?
    So it wasn't an election. Glad you've acknowledged that.
    It was exactly the same form of election that Boris Johnson will face in Parliament. Jesus, it’s like educating pot plants.
    But Johnson was elected to Parliament in the first place. von der Leyen was not.
    Completely irrelevant. The Prime Minister could be an unelected Trappist monk in constitutional theory. You and @tlg86 are just embarrassing yourselves with reflex deranged Europhobia. The two systems are pretty similar.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    So would it be okay if she was a parish councillor in her local area, or something similar?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I actually think one of the biggest barriers to federalism in the EU is that they'd really have to have a directly elected president. And there's a danger the people might vote for the wrong person.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    I voted for her. I voted LD in the Euro elections, and the LDs voted for her, so indirectly elected. BXP voted against.
    No you voted for LD. She was not on the ballot paper anywhere, this isn't like Parliament where one of the MPs duly elected gets chosen as first amongst equals, no member of the public elected her.
    Just like the office of PM then. Unless you live in Maidenhead.
    No it fucking isn't. The PM is, usually, an elected MP. And the last time they weren't, the situation was rectified asap.
    So. Presumably you reject the legitimacy of the entirety of the US Cabinet then?
    They are appointed by a democratically elected head of the executive. Every four years voters get to choose who that person is.
    They are appointed by democratically elected MEPs. Every four years voters get to choose who those people are.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Votes? Does that mean it would be, er, inaccurate to label her “unelected”?
    Unelected by the public.
    As will be the Prime Minister.
    Theresa May was elected by the public in the Maidenhead constituency.
    Boris Johnson was elected by the public in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency.
    Jeremy Hunt was elected by the public in the SW Surrey constituency.

    von der Leyen was elected by nobody.
    So would it be okay if she was a parish councillor in her local area, or something similar?
    No, no more than it would be OK to have a PM who is a parish councillor.
This discussion has been closed.