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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an ea

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    He may differ in opinion, and believe that he can win.

    There was an interesting hypothetical poll recently on a post-Brexit election where 14% said they would vote Brexit Party. Apparently even Brexit is not Brexity enough for the swivel eyed!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    Because as a caretaker PM Corbyn could still ask the EU for an Extension and so avoid No Deal until after the election result is known.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    The posts earlier on the approval of Leyen by the MEPs as being undemocratic seemed somewhat contrived, particularly when we use FPTP which is spectacularly undemocratic in comparison.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    In other news - a beautiful lunar eclipse is rising over Dorset (and the rest of the UK tbf).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    That's no good, I have a bet on September :lol:
    How do you get an election on October 3rd. Working backwards:-

    25 working days are required. So it needs to be called on August 27th/28th.

    August 26th is bank holiday - Parliament isn't going to sit that week.

    The holidays make calling an election unless it's next week impossible.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OT. We have a Northumbria PCC by-election on Thursday. Featuring a Tory who lives in Lincolnshire, a LD who wants the post abolished, an Independent who was accused of bullying, posed next to the fake Police station used for filming Vera, and compared Berwick Council to North Korea. And a Labour candidate who at least scrubs up well.
    Happy days. The North-East can sleep safely in our beds.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    That's no good, I have a bet on September :lol:
    I’ll see what I can do :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ha Ha, Corbyn has just sided with diehard Tory Remainers and the LDs to block Brexit, it would be the biggest gift to the Boris led Tory Party and the Brexit Party imaginable.

    The working class Labour Leave vote in the North and Midlands would go beserk

    So which party do you think would win a seat like Kingston upon Hull East in those conditions?
    The Brexit Party who would repeat their success in the European Parliament elections where they beat Labour by 11 000 votes in Hull

    https://www.hullccnews.co.uk/27/05/2019/european-parliamentary-election-results/
    Like Peterborough?
    The Brexit Party and Tories combined got well over 50% there, I expect a Boris led Tory Party would win it back.
    Peterborough did see a 4% swing from Con to Lab with the Labour majority over the Tories increasing to over 3000. Moreover, the by election result is likely to split the anti-Labour vote there next time - with the Brexit Party being able to claim it starts as the the main rival to Labour.
    On the latest Comres poll giving Boris a 7% bounce and Labour down 3% the Tories would take Peterborough given the Tories only trailed Labour by 9% in the by election
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    What's not to like?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
    How exciting!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    As much as any Essex Tory can...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    The Brexit vote won't be split since the Tory party would have gone down swinging for a clean Brexit. In that circumstance Farage has said he would seek an electoral alliance with the Tories.
    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-19/nigel-farage-says-he-would-form-election-alliance-with-tories-for-brexit/
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/104688/nigel-farage-says-no-deal-brexit-election-pact-boris

    If Boris chooses to go for an extension then he will split the Brexit vote but if the Tories are going for no-deal themselves then Farage has said he would seek a no-deal ticket like the coupon election.

    In scenario 2 Corbyn would be publicly shouting he would seek an extension and he needs to be PM to stop No Deal Brexit so his supporters won't blame him for helping deliver it. That would be 'fake news' to his supporters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    tpfkar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for sibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs oppg GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    My friend you seem to have made every prediction under the sun in recent days. It all reminds me of the Tory thinking about the 2017 GE that they could convert huge polling leads into gains of lots of Labour seats. When push came to shove, they all stayed Labour. Whatever their grumbles with Corbyn, the Labour vote is tribal and just not obsessive enough about Brexit to switch like that - to the Tories!

    As for the Brexit party sweeping the board, come back to us when they have an MP. Ever. Anywhere. If they posed any threat whatsoever of winning seats in a GE they’d have won peterborough and be scaring the LDs and Tories in Brecon. But they didn’t and they won’t.
    In 2017 Corbyn promised to deliver Brexit do voters in Labour Leave seats voted on other issues, if he betrays Brexit that is a totally different matter and while such seats may not go Tory they may certainly go Brexit Party as they did in the European Parliament elections

    There are dozens of Labour Leave seats which were more Leave than Peterborough and hundreds of seats were more Leave than Brecon
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    @rcs1000 from the Politicshome link:

    Asked whether he could form a pact with the Tories if Mr Johnson wins the party's leadership race, Mr Farage said: "If he has the guts to be prepared to be voted down by Parliament, to call an election on a clean Brexit, then I would suggest that... logically there is a deal that could be done, and in those circumstances Boris would come back with a massive, massive majority."

    The Brexit Party leader added: "If he is prepared to be voted down and go to a general election on that ticket then with the support of people like me he would win a massive, thumping majority...

    "If he was prepared to do that of course I’d want to work with them, of course I’d do that."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    I know that the Brexit Party swept them in the European Parliament elections and would do so again in many of them if Corbyn set out to block Brexit.

    Under Boris the Tories will again be the main party for Leavers, while the LDs will be the main party for Remainer.

    Corbyn Labour risks being squeezed to death by the Brexit Party and Boris Tories in Northern and Midlands and Welsh Leave seats and by the LDs in Remain voting London and university seats
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Having seen The Times front page, it really would be bloody funny if Hunt became Prime Minister.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    The vast majority of posters are building in far too much certainity into their projections, the conflicting rationales and projections show no-ones actions are predictable over the next few weeks and months. Events will play a big part. By Christmas we could have a PM from any of four parties or a GoNU, have no-dealed or revoked, had no GEs or two GEs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    AOC is great, what a communicator. No wonder Trump is afraid of her!
    She's not running to be POTUS. Nominating a left progressive/socialist will hand Trump another four years of mayhem. Madness.
    She is too young, but don't underestimate America. Socialism is surprisingly popular there:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
    Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
    Indeed, 40% of Americans for Socialism is still 8% less than Hillary got in 2016 and even 5% less than the 45.6% Dukakis got in 1988 when he lost by a landslide.

    40% would be the worst Democratic performance since Mondale in 1984 or McGovern in 1972
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    eek said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    That's no good, I have a bet on September :lol:
    How do you get an election on October 3rd. Working backwards:-

    25 working days are required. So it needs to be called on August 27th/28th.

    August 26th is bank holiday - Parliament isn't going to sit that week.

    The holidays make calling an election unless it's next week impossible.
    Yes it doesn’t seem to follow on with the timetables we are expecting. However if this is for a more planned scenario than the FTPA timings maybe it could be done in legislation if there is agreement? Who knows.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    tpfkar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been .

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    My friend you seem to have made every prediction under the sun in recent days. It all reminds me of the Tory thinking about the 2017 GE that they could convert huge polling leads into gains of lots of Labour seats. When push came to shove, they all stayed Labour. Whatever their grumbles with Corbyn, the Labour vote is tribal and just not obsessive enough about Brexit to switch like that - to the Tories!

    As for the Brexit party sweeping the board, come back to us when they have an MP. Ever. Anywhere. If they posed any threat whatsoever of winning seats in a GE they’d have won peterborough and be scaring the LDs and Tories in Brecon. But they didn’t and they won’t.
    I have given up trying to make HYUFD see the light with FPTP elections, the resilience of Labour, the Brexit party bubble created by the Brexit supporting media, the advantage of incumbancy, the advantages of party machines, infrastructure and the limitations Labour & Tories have in targetting seats nevermind smaller parties and those that are only a few months old. Talk about HYUFD sticking his head in the sand!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    AOC is great, what a communicator. No wonder Trump is afraid of her!
    She's not running to be POTUS. Nominating a left progressive/socialist will hand Trump another four years of mayhem. Madness.
    She is too young, but don't underestimate America. Socialism is surprisingly popular there:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
    Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
    I may be misremembering but wasn't Hilary the safe(r) option to stop Trump?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    AOC is great, what a communicator. No wonder Trump is afraid of her!
    She's not running to be POTUS. Nominating a left progressive/socialist will hand Trump another four years of mayhem. Madness.
    She is too young, but don't underestimate America. Socialism is surprisingly popular there:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
    Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
    That worked so well last time.

    Seriously, what kind of extreme risk taker do you have to be to nominate something as unelectable as a centrist in this day and age?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
    ok - but Parliament is currently to begin its Summer recess on 25th July.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    tpfkar said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been .

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    My friend you seem to have made every prediction under the sun in recent days. It all reminds me of the Tory thinking about the 2017 GE that they could convert huge polling leads into gains of lots of Labour seats. When push came to shove, they all stayed Labour. Whatever their grumbles with Corbyn, the Labour vote is tribal and just not obsessive enough about Brexit to switch like that - to the Tories!

    As for the Brexit party sweeping the board, come back to us when they have an MP. Ever. Anywhere. If they posed any threat whatsoever of winning seats in a GE they’d have won peterborough and be scaring the LDs and Tories in Brecon. But they didn’t and they won’t.
    I have given up trying to make HYUFD see the light with FPTP elections, the resilience of Labour, the Brexit party bubble created by the Brexit supporting media, the advantage of incumbancy, the advantages of party machines, infrastructure and the limitations Labour & Tories have in targetting seats nevermind smaller parties and those that are only a few months old. Talk about HYUFD sticking his head in the sand!
    If one thing is clear from politics at the moment it is no incumbent is safe if they ignore the wishes of their electorate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Boris and his accolites are making a strategic error by even discussing elections as he can be portrayed as chicken just like Gordon brown in 2007, when he fails to call a GE. Boris will not have a majority of 60 plus and could be forced to the polls at the worst time for the Tories...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    She really snarls and turns nasty at the end.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    They can start with Beaconsfield ;)

    Yes it affects their ability to govern otherwise and that is a bitter pill to swallow, I would not be happy. Its like a Faustian Pact. But if the alternative is PM Corbyn then is there an alternative?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    @rcs1000 from the Politicshome link:

    Asked whether he could form a pact with the Tories if Mr Johnson wins the party's leadership race, Mr Farage said: "If he has the guts to be prepared to be voted down by Parliament, to call an election on a clean Brexit, then I would suggest that... logically there is a deal that could be done, and in those circumstances Boris would come back with a massive, massive majority."

    The Brexit Party leader added: "If he is prepared to be voted down and go to a general election on that ticket then with the support of people like me he would win a massive, thumping majority...

    "If he was prepared to do that of course I’d want to work with them, of course I’d do that."
    But many of Farage's voters would not follow him!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
    ok - but Parliament is currently to begin its Summer recess on 25th July.
    If an election is called on the 24th or 25th that will take priority over the recess surely?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    If one thing is clear from politics at the moment it is no incumbent is safe if they ignore the wishes of their electorate

    May I refer you to Peterborough - which party won an election even though their previous candidate was jailed for perjury...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Boris and his accolites are making a strategic error by even discussing elections as he can be portrayed as chicken just like Gordon brown in 2007, when he fails to call a GE. Boris will not have a majority of 60 plus and could be forced to the polls at the worst time for the Tories...
    Maybe. The thing with Boris is the bullshit seems to be built in now. It was obvious Brown was agonizing over a date, and checking polls etc etc.

    Boris can just laugh and say ' I never said anything about an election'. He just blusters away every answer. Look at his Sun hustings.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    justin124 said:

    But many of Farage's voters would not follow him!

    Indeed they may not, but the question was about a split pro-Brexit vote if Boris is brought down by a VONC. In those circumstances there may not be a split pro-Brexit vote.

    In which case Corbyn may as well hold out to be made PM or let the 14 days run out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    AOC is great, what a communicator. No wonder Trump is afraid of her!
    She's not running to be POTUS. Nominating a left progressive/socialist will hand Trump another four years of mayhem. Madness.
    She is too young, but don't underestimate America. Socialism is surprisingly popular there:


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/10/america-socialism-capitalism-poll-axios
    Can we please just focus on getting rid of Trump and save the socialism-in-America routine for the election after next?
    Indeed, 40% of Americans for Socialism is still 8% less than Hillary got in 2016 and even 5% less than the 45.6% Dukakis got in 1988 when he lost by a landslide.

    40% would be the worst Democratic performance since Mondale in 1984 or McGovern in 1972
    Hmmm... plenty of the remaining 60% would vote for Dem over Trump regardless.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
    ok - but Parliament is currently to begin its Summer recess on 25th July.
    If an election is called on the 24th or 25th that will take priority over the recess surely?
    Perhaps - though Parliament would have to agree. Realistically no vote for an early election would be likely until 28/29th July.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Boris and his accolites are making a strategic error by even discussing elections as he can be portrayed as chicken just like Gordon brown in 2007, when he fails to call a GE. Boris will not have a majority of 60 plus and could be forced to the polls at the worst time for the Tories...
    Maybe. The thing with Boris is the bullshit seems to be built in now. It was obvious Brown was agonizing over a date, and checking polls etc etc.

    Boris can just laugh and say ' I never said anything about an election'. He just blusters away every answer. Look at his Sun hustings.
    Boris mentioned the"forthcoming election" in a debate with his rival just last week. Boris might well chicken out of a GE because he knows he will do worse than the woman he is replacing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    In my headcanon, Kellyanne Conway is Rory Stewart in drag. Or possibly vice versa.

    And now I've told you that, you can't unsee it... :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    That would make an awful lot of sense. Labour would be finished but Boris is locked into deliver No Deal and tbat might impact (understatement) on the Tories in future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    It is honestly pretty hilarious that his proxies say Labour are in no fit state to fight an election, but we're presumably expected to believe the Tories are in great shape for one.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    I don't believe that Corbyn thinks that many steps ahead. He will accept the offer of an election because he will believe that he can win an election and become Prime Minister.

    All your scenarios are just too complicated.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.

    How would that even work?

    If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place.

    But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    I know that the Brexit Party swept them in the European Parliament elections and would do so again in many of them if Corbyn set out to block Brexit.

    Under Boris the Tories will again be the main party for Leavers, while the LDs will be the main party for Remainer.

    Corbyn Labour risks being squeezed to death by the Brexit Party and Boris Tories in Northern and Midlands and Welsh Leave seats and by the LDs in Remain voting London and university seats

    But you don’t know that. Not at all. We need seat by seat MRP polling to even have an idea.

    No GE is ever comparable to an EU election. We know this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited July 2019

    Boris and his accolites are making a strategic error by even discussing elections as he can be portrayed as chicken just like Gordon brown in 2007, when he fails to call a GE. Boris will not have a majority of 60 plus and could be forced to the polls at the worst time for the Tories...
    Good point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    The vast majority of posters are building in far too much certainity into their projections, the conflicting rationales and projections show no-ones actions are predictable over the next few weeks and months. Events will play a big part. By Christmas we could have a PM from any of four parties or a GoNU, have no-dealed or revoked, had no GEs or two GEs.

    Obviously the situation is uncertain, but it'd be pretty dull if everyone just said 'f*ck it, who the heck knows?'. Taking an unreasonably confident stab at a prediction is, counter intuitively, reasonable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    I don't believe that Corbyn thinks that many steps ahead. He will accept the offer of an election because he will believe that he can win an election and become Prime Minister.

    All your scenarios are just too complicated.
    It's not that many moves ahead - it's really simple

    The Tories are destroyed if the UK doesn't leave the EU by October 31st.
    So all plans need to ensure we don't leave by October 31st and we delay any election until November 7th...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    What the polls say about them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Just a little whisper. Our local council has been encouraged to start some
    Contingency planning for a General Election on October 3rd. Don’t know how high up the source is but seems to have come from somewhere.

    Parliament would have to be meeting in mid-August for Polling Day on 3rd October to be a possibility.
    Or dissolved next Friday...
    Next Friday would be too early - and would imply an early September election!
    The election period is a minimum, not a maximum, also there is the 2/52 VONC period, so a successful VONC next Friday means mid August.
    ok - but Parliament is currently to begin its Summer recess on 25th July.
    If an election is called on the 24th or 25th that will take priority over the recess surely?
    Perhaps - though Parliament would have to agree. Realistically no vote for an early election would be likely until 28/29th July.
    Parliament currently breaks up on the 25th...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    lol - I doubt that will happen. Large political parties only do deals with small entities so they can absorb them. Think National Liberals assymalated by the Tories in the late 1960s and other parties in the last 200 years!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    What the polls say about them.
    What polls? Have we had seat by seat polling or are we just extrapolating with uniform swing which is clearly a waste of time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    What the polls say about them.
    They said much the same at Easter 2017 as I recall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited July 2019

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    What the polls say about them.
    What polls? Have we had seat by seat polling or are we just extrapolating with uniform swing which is clearly a waste of time.
    You've answered the question perfectly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    I can't entirely follow Alastair's train of argument here. But here's some thoughts:

    - There have been so many twists and turns along the way that what might not look attractive to Boris on June 16th might look very attractive on Sept 16th or Oct 16th

    - Labour will officially without a doubt go for a General Election if offered the slightest sniff. The Corbynites are deluded enough to believe they can win. And in these febrile times, who knows they might be right. It's without a shadow of doubt they will vote for it if offered

    - The problems revolve around the rebels on both sides. There may be a substantial number on the Labour side and possibly independents. More perhaps than the Tory ones?

    Whereas six weeks ago I was convinced we were heading for an autumn GE I'm not so confident now. But it's still a real possibility.

    I expect no Labour rebels re - a VNOC - with sole possible exception of Kate Hoey.
    It clearly depends on the scenario. If the timing is non controversial I would agree with your analysis. However, a GE being offered at a time which would lock in no deal with no parliament available to deal with the consequences and there will be plenty of Labour MPs opposing the GE.
    That would end their careers with immediate effect - at a stroke! It would not happen.
    Labour cannot be the party of delivering no deal going into an election! LDs would wipe the board in the cities and university towns.
    Whilst the Brexit Party will wipe the board in working class industrial towns in the North and Midlands and South Wales if Corbyn blocks Brexit
    Nah they wouldn’t. Labour would still win a majority of those seats on reduced majorities.
    Nope, if Corbyn stops Brexit in alliance with some posh Tory Remainers and the LDs, Farage would have Northern and Midlands Labour MPs for lunch in Leave seats
    With all due respect, what do you know about Northern Labour seats?
    What the polls say about them.
    They said much the same at Easter 2017 as I recall.
    I wasn't suggesting I believe I know everything about northern Labour seats because of poll extrapolation.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited July 2019
    My thoughts too, given that Bartholomew should be spelt with two "o"s.

    Russians etc. etc.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.

    How would that even work?

    If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place.

    But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
    I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    I don't believe that Corbyn thinks that many steps ahead. He will accept the offer of an election because he will believe that he can win an election and become Prime Minister.

    All your scenarios are just too complicated.
    It's not that many moves ahead - it's really simple

    The Tories are destroyed if the UK doesn't leave the EU by October 31st.
    So all plans need to ensure we don't leave by October 31st and we delay any election until November 7th...
    It is quite funny that the Tories are likely destroyed if we do not leave by October 31st, yet they also maintain that some leaves are impossible to accept. The implication being they would rather they destroy themselves than leave in the wrong way.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Voters don't like unnecessary GEs. We know that. What would Boris' convincing rationale be for one being necessary? Other than I want a majority?
    Mrs May struggled to outline one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    Voters don't like unnecessary GEs. We know that. What would Boris' convincing rationale be for one being necessary? Other than I want a majority?
    Mrs May struggled to outline one.

    In fairness while I do not like him Boris does fire up the base more than May, even if she was rated as very popular at the time she called the last GE. It is possible that him making the same basic argument might be more effective.

    But against that must be put the view that he and many like him rejected the chance to leave over and over, and yet would then still be asking us to reward him with a majority to leave in a different way (and which some on here have speculated he would essentially go back to what is there now in any case).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited July 2019
    Take my seat: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    I think 20k is a ceiling for Brexit/Tory based on nothing but feeling I must admit.

    So it all depends on any fracturing of the Labour vote.

    PS Cat is a bleeding heart Remoaner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I've always thought that punny headlines work best for gotcha stories and funny stuff. Not sure how I feel about punny headlines for such gloomy ones.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dixiedean said:

    Voters don't like unnecessary GEs. We know that. What would Boris' convincing rationale be for one being necessary? Other than I want a majority?
    Mrs May struggled to outline one.

    It will be a 'Believe in Britain' and 'Get Brexit Done' election. Virtually a khaki election.

    Risky. Very very risky.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    I expect Boris could give the Brexit Party a free run in say 50 to 100 'safe' Labour Leave seats in the North and Midlands the Brexit Party won in the European Parliament elections and leave it up to Farage whether to reciprocate in Tory v Labour marginals
    Mate what are you smoking? The Tories aren't going to give anyone a free run at anything in any seats.

    How would that even work?

    If not politically astute you normally confine yourself to wild extrapolations from polls which at least have taken place.

    But you are heading into the stratosphere with this latest theory.
    I would not be so certain as HYUFD but if this remain alliance takes off then the Torys will think about it. Every action has etc.
    For the minor parties maybe. For Lab or the Cons? No way.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    I agree. I refer to 3 Wigan seats again. 59% Leave. Only 2 potential winners. Labour or Brexit Party.
    With a Brexit Party/Tory pact, that narrows possible winners down to, well, one.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited July 2019

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    It may surprise you to know that a vast majority of northeners do not frequent working mens clubs and prefer gastro pubs and maybe even Nandos god forbid.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?

    If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I shall retire to Bedlam.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    dixiedean said:

    Voters don't like unnecessary GEs.

    2015 turnout 66.4%
    2017 turnout 68.8%
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?

    We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    By a self-selecting audience of course. If Labour booked a golf club in Surrey, doubtless an audience could be found to cheer Corbyn in a similar way.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    dixiedean said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    I agree. I refer to 3 Wigan seats again. 59% Leave. Only 2 potential winners. Labour or Brexit Party.
    With a Brexit Party/Tory pact, that narrows possible winners down to, well, one.
    Only if Brexit is the only item on the agenda. If other items become a factor - Labour (especially if it offers a referendum before revoking) may be the least worst option again.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So a Brexit MEP thinks no deal is great as his company can hoover up property on the cheap after the market collapses.

    How gallant of him!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    I agree. I refer to 3 Wigan seats again. 59% Leave. Only 2 potential winners. Labour or Brexit Party.
    With a Brexit Party/Tory pact, that narrows possible winners down to, well, one.
    Only if Brexit is the only item on the agenda. If other items become a factor - Labour (especially if it offers a referendum before revoking) may be the least worst option again.
    Ans we know Corbyn will be desperate to make it about anything but Brexit.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    nico67 said:

    So a Brexit MEP thinks no deal is great as his company can hoover up property on the cheap after the market collapses.

    How gallant of him!

    Why are people stupid enough to reveal their plans out loud...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?

    If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?

    I don't think Hansard is a completely verbatim record. If someone misspeaks they can have the official record corrected for example, IIRC. So maybe it is possible for the House to require sections be amended in such a manner, but I've never heard of such a thing, it would seem a very slipperly slope.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    I hear the Conservative Club in Jarrow is reasonably popular because the Labour club shut down and the beer is cheap!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    dixiedean said:

    Voters don't like unnecessary GEs. We know that. What would Boris' convincing rationale be for one being necessary? Other than I want a majority?
    Mrs May struggled to outline one.

    I think May probably left it too late in waiting a year so Boris probably thinks it is better to go early. What neither May or Boris factor in is austerity is still being implemented and there have been an absence of giveaways in the guise of tax cuts or spending that people will have fresh in the mind. Governments lose elections and the current one and its Tory sucsessor seem unable to understand how to use Government decisions for party political advantage. Brexit seems to be the only issue for the Tory leadership. They really have no idea!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    What do fellow members think about next week .

    What happens on the day Johnson is announced winner .

    Whip resignations , defections etc or it passes off without too much drama.

    I expect Labour to VONC, which will be tight.
    Labour is probably more likely to do so at the beginning of September - rather than next week. It occurs to me that in order to avoid No Deal on 31st October, the Tory defectors - and other opposition parties - will have to be prepared to install Corbyn in No 10 - albeit briefly - during the two week period following a VNOC having passed. Corbyn could then request a further Extension from the EU and then seek a Dissolution.
    I agree, that's what I've been saying. Corbyn will be the only one who can command a majority and everyone [including the likes of Chuka etc who've left Labour] would need to line up behind him.
    And this is where you and I disagree: I think Corbyn would be willing to accept another Labour MP (a retiring one works) as PM.

    Why?

    BECAUSE IT FUCKS THE TORIES BY EXTENDING BREXIT PAST 31 OCTOBER

    I can't see why Corbyn would choose anything to unfuck the Tories. He is the massive and obvious benificiary of an extension, because it results in the Brexit Party splitting the right wing vote.

    The alternative view is that - rather than getting a temporary PM in - he prefers to have a General Election where the Brexit Party gets 0%, and where he is punished by his own Remain supporters for helping deliver No Deal Brexit.

    Can you (or anyone) please explain how Jeremy Corbyn is better off in scenario two than in scenario one?
    I don't believe that Corbyn thinks that many steps ahead. He will accept the offer of an election because he will believe that he can win an election and become Prime Minister.

    All your scenarios are just too complicated.
    It's not that many moves ahead - it's really simple

    The Tories are destroyed if the UK doesn't leave the EU by October 31st.
    So all plans need to ensure we don't leave by October 31st and we delay any election until November 7th...
    It's at least one move ahead - one too many for Corbyn.

    I'm not arguing that it isn't a good idea. I'm just explaining why I think that Corbyn will do something that you have explained is not optimal. Who could have foreseen Corbyn failing to act infallibly?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Question for those who know. I'm shocked to see the House in American can vote on whether to strike Pelosi's words from the record of Congress. Is that possible here, never heard anything like that?

    If an MP uses unparliamentary language and is told off and asked to leave by the Speaker, I'm assuming Hansard still records the entire exchange surely?

    I don't think Hansard is a completely verbatim record. If someone misspeaks they can have the official record corrected for example, IIRC. So maybe it is possible for the House to require sections be amended in such a manner, but I've never heard of such a thing, it would seem a very slipperly slope.
    Enoch Powell was said to demand changes to Hansard, whether it was an apocryphal tale I do not know!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    dixiedean said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    I agree. I refer to 3 Wigan seats again. 59% Leave. Only 2 potential winners. Labour or Brexit Party.
    With a Brexit Party/Tory pact, that narrows possible winners down to, well, one.
    Only if Brexit is the only item on the agenda. If other items become a factor - Labour (especially if it offers a referendum before revoking) may be the least worst option again.

    I fear you misunderstood my post. I meant to imply that with a Tory/Brexit Party pact, the only possible winner was Labour! The Brexit Party vote in Wigan is not a Conservative-led government vote.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1127886076960477184?lang=en
    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1127886076960477184?lang=en

    Featherstone and Huddersfield.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.

    They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    viewcode said:

    Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?

    We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates

    You register as a party and select which levels you will stand at. They are registered to stand in GB as well as Europe.

    http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7931


    On topic, the problem with antifrank's analysis is that it assumes rational choices on the part of Boris and Jeremy, rather than emotional, culty impulse.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    viewcode said:

    Quick question: have TBP registered as a party for the General Election (do they have to do that?) and have they created a slate of candidates, paid the deposits, etc?

    We can talk about a Leave alliance all we like, but if they're just a paper party it's irrelevant: you can't stand down non-existent candidates

    No deposits to pay until nominations are made after an election is called.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    I hear the Conservative Club in Jarrow is reasonably popular because the Labour club shut down and the beer is cheap!
    I frequented the local Tory Club in my youth. 5p cheaper beer than the Labour Club, and the only 2 full size snooker tables in town.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    What you're saying makes sense, in that Boris Johnson *might* do a deal with the Brexit Party if he's stymied by a GoNAFAE.

    But that's a difficult pill for the Conservatives to swallow. The Brexit Party will want, what, 20, 30 or 40 seats in return for their acquisence. Which might make getting a majority for Brexit easier, but what does it do to their ability to govern otherwise?

    Or will the Brexit Party just pack it's bags up and say "well Boris, good man, you go for it"?

    The other problem with doing a deal is that the Brexit Party want to have lots of Brexitty MPs, but where you sit determines where you stand, so the seats where they'll be in with a chance will mostly be seats currently already occupied by Brexitty Tories.

    They could limit the agreement to Labour-Leavish seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway, but in a lot of those places BXP are probably not desperately keen to get Tory endorsement.
    TBF I don't think Farage is that arsed how many BXP seats he wins, if any.

    If he gets a clear an unequivocal commitment for a clean exit from Boris and then that happens then I think that would be mission accomplished.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    I appreciate your personal experience canvasing @HYUFD which is valued data however Essex Torys and Brexiteers are different to Northern Torys and Brexiteers and we have no idea how that might play out in a FPTP election.

    What do you make of Anne Widdecombe being cheer to the rafters in northern working mens clubs?
    I would like to know where the clubs were. Around our neck of the woods most of them are closing due to dying membership..
    I hear the Conservative Club in Jarrow is reasonably popular because the Labour club shut down and the beer is cheap!
    I frequented the local Tory Club in my youth. 5p cheaper beer than the Labour Club, and the only 2 full size snooker tables in town.
    Was this back when 5p was worth about 2 dollars!! :D
This discussion has been closed.