It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Yes it did feel like they'd let in a ward of incontinent pensioners. I can well understand their desire not to repeat the exercise and take steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.
If Jeremy Hunt were to win, the value of polling of party members would be shown to be almost zilch.
No, it would show that campaigning (the hustings and debates) are making a difference.
ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
Hunt is Foreign Secretary, hardly unrecognised and no it does not just reflect name recognition in America either except maybe in the case of Buttigieg who was less recognised than the top 4
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
Though Magid seems to have had a little difficulty too.
Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.
Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.
They also need to grow up
Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
Getting on the front pages is the job. They're politicians, not civil servants.
That Yougov polls has Hunt well ahead of Boris with LD and Labour voters and Remainers but Boris ahead of Hunt with Tory voters and we'll ahead of Hunt with Brexit Party voters and Leavers so it is more a case as Yougov has also showed of Hunt winning more LD voters but losing more voters to the Brexit Party and Boris winning more Brexit Party voters but losing more voters to the LDs than any major gulf in electability between them.
As Yougov has also showed if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the end of October and we are still in the EU by the next general election having extended Article 50 again they are toast regsrdless of which one of them wins
Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
Not sure your meaning in your comment.
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
Nearly up to us; we originally met early in the October of 1959 and while 'the course of true love' didn't flow that smoothly at first we've been (reasonably) happily married for 57 years. We both agree that we don't like the Conservatives policies, and we don't trust Johnson.
1962 for us and agree neither of us, and many more, do not trust Johnson
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
I was very moved by it.
It’s just rude tbh. Other people’s anthems are something you politely endure
The 2 membership polls we have had from Yougov had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% a fortnight ago and from ConHome had it Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%.
I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).
I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001
The quote seems to be saying that this source thinks Boris has a 60% chance of winning, not that he'll get 60% of the votes.
Well he can say what he wants but a 60% Boris percentage looks plausible, Boris was on 66% last week in a ConHome members' poll so would have to have been a huge turnaround in a week for Hunt to win given ballot papers go out this week
Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.
Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.
They also need to grow up
Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
In this case, "the job" is to remain in the EU. So this highly visible statement by the Lib Dem MEPs was very telling.
The problem is that you Tories expect everybody else to just roll over and do as we are told. In fact, the Conservatives no longer speak for Britain. People throughout the EU can see that very clearly.
Yes. Brexit has arrested the tendency for people to switch to the Tories in middle age - those educated working middle aged being prime remainer demographic - and progressively a new generation of non-Tory young people is joining the register to replace those mostly Tory voters being lost from the other end.
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Or pass the Withdrawal Agreement as is or with just the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, some Labour MPs like Nandy are switching to it
You believe Nandy? Given her consistent approach of hinting she would back it then sticking to the party line it seems more likely now she knows it will never come back she can insist she was totally going to back it next time you guys without needing to actually follow through.
Her record indicates if it were to come back shed find a way not to back it, complaining that the new PM said something rude about labour or something.
Even with the 12 Labour MPs rumoured to switch, including Nandy, the WA would still fail with DUP, ERG and Grieve, Lee, Gyimah etc opposed so yes it needs a Tory majority to pass most likely
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Yes it did feel like they'd let in a ward of incontinent pensioners. I can well understand their desire not to repeat the exercise and take steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.
The easiest way to ensure we leave would be to give Boris a minor concession that means the WA passes. While no deal is more likely than revoke the latter is still possible if this continues.
But the people inconsistently insist the EU wants rid of us and that they want us to stay .
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Or pass the Withdrawal Agreement as is or with just the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, some Labour MPs like Nandy are switching to it
You believe Nandy? Given her consistent approach of hinting she would back it then sticking to the party line it seems more likely now she knows it will never come back she can insist she was totally going to back it next time you guys without needing to actually follow through.
Her record indicates if it were to come back shed find a way not to back it, complaining that the new PM said something rude about labour or something.
Even with the 12 Labour MPs rumoured to switch, including Nandy, the WA would still fail with DUP, ERG and Grieve, Lee, Gyimah etc opposed so yes it needs a Tory majority to pass most likely
The point was whether the lab mps would switch at all. Its rumoured every time. Most have the decency not to publicly posture they might and then not do so, but Nandys game is utterly shameless.
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Yes it did feel like they'd let in a ward of incontinent pensioners. I can well understand their desire not to repeat the exercise and take steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.
The easiest way to ensure we leave would be to give Boris a minor concession that means the WA passes. While no deal is more likely than revoke the latter is still possible if this continues.
But the people inconsistently insist the EU wants rid of us and that they want us to stay .
Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May required not Barnier and ERG most oppose but likely still needs a Tory majority after a general election
Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.
Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.
They also need to grow up
Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
In this case, "the job" is to remain in the EU. So this highly visible statement by the Lib Dem MEPs was very telling.
The problem is that you Tories expect everybody else to just roll over and do as we are told. In fact, the Conservatives no longer speak for Britain. People throughout the EU can see that very clearly.
Yes. Brexit has arrested the tendency for people to switch to the Tories in middle age - those educated working middle aged being prime remainer demographic - and progressively a new generation of non-Tory young people is joining the register to replace those mostly Tory voters being lost from the other end.
The Tories still won more 47 to 55 voters than Labour in 2017 and that is still middle aged
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
I was very moved by it.
It’s just rude tbh. Other people’s anthems are something you politely endure
It does show how peer pressure works. I'm no fan of Widdicombe but I'd be very surprised if she'd have followed the ignoramuses if she hadn't felt the need to fit in.
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
I was very moved by it.
It’s just rude tbh. Other people’s anthems are something you politely endure
Indeed.
It confirms what I’ve said about Farage and his mob, they are a bunch of virtue signalling snowflakes.
Every other metric shows support for Brexit declining, so it would be logical that there is a corresponding shift among Tory Party members.
Yesterdays display by Farage in the EU was unnnecessarily provocative but what on earth were the Lib Dems thinking off with their childish and crass t shirts.
They also need to grow up
Agreed. I want boring politicians who just get on with the job rather than trying to get on the front pages.
In this case, "the job" is to remain in the EU. So this highly visible statement by the Lib Dem MEPs was very telling.
The problem is that you Tories expect everybody else to just roll over and do as we are told. In fact, the Conservatives no longer speak for Britain. People throughout the EU can see that very clearly.
Yes. Brexit has arrested the tendency for people to switch to the Tories in middle age - those educated working middle aged being prime remainer demographic - and progressively a new generation of non-Tory young people is joining the register to replace those mostly Tory voters being lost from the other end.
The Tories still won more 47 to 55 voters than Labour in 2017 and that is still middle aged
Two years later a further 3-4% of the electorate has turned over since then. And a quarter of that specific age group are new.
The 2 membership polls we have had from Yougov had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% a fortnight ago and from ConHome had it Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%.
I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).
I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001
The quote seems to be saying that this source thinks Boris has a 60% chance of winning, not that he'll get 60% of the votes.
Well he can say what he wants but a 60% Boris percentage looks plausible, Boris was on 66% last week in a ConHome members' poll so would have to have been a huge turnaround in a week for Hunt to win given ballot papers go out this week
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Has anyone kept a list of the promises of tax cuts and spending increases Boris and Hunt have made ?
IFS are trying to keep up with them.
90% or more of it will never happen. Just a loud of hot air to win the contest. And anyway either man will be up to their necks in crisis management over Brexit and far too busy to worry about tax.
I was clearing out my computer last night and came across this header I'd done featuring Boris Johnson. I was far too kind to him but some of the early comments particularly by Eagle were prescient. I was also surprised by how little had changed in three years.....
He famously invited the board of British Rail to his agency for a pitch. When they arrived they found ashtrays overflowing a stained carpet and a receptionist filing her nails. After being kept waiting half an hour Marsh appeared and told them that now they knew what it felt like to be a British Rail customer…..they won the account and ‘The Age of the Train’ had arrived.
Not sure I agree with that. He should ave kept them waiting for four hours, given them false information about his progress, blocked up all the toilets and caused the sprinkler system to come on repeatedly while feeding them stale sandwiches and cold tea.
Then he could have said, 'Now, some of your customers experience this. However, if you are not one of the lucky few in London it's much worse.'
I thought this exchange was interesting. (XXX's to keep JohnO's reputation intact)
XXXXX said:
» show previous quotes I think we should wait and see what happens on June 23rd, shouldn't we? My best guess is that the result will be Remain by something like 55-45 (almost identical to the Scottish result). Both Cameron and Salmond had agreed that that settled the matter of independence for a "generation" which is about 15 years or so.
So a narrow victory and a comfortable victory amount to the same thing.
Or are you contending that 55-45, or even 60-40 would mean no re-vote for 41 years?
My point is that if remain win, the leave side can call foul on so many issues. It would have to be a thumping win to put it off for more than 15 years.
That is not a good place to be, as the whole idea of the referendum was to settle the matter for good.
Link to follow the exciting first (well, it is technically the second because they had a brief one yesterday to delay the vote to today) sitting of new EU Parliament with the election of the Parliament President
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Does it cost more overall, though? If these people lived to a ripe old age, would they cost the country more in social security, pensions and old age care?
Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
Not sure your meaning in your comment.
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.
Thank you and we do count our blessings day by day
My wife Jacky and I celebrate our golden wedding on Friday.
Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
Not sure your meaning in your comment.
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.
Thank you and we do count our blessings day by day
My wife Jacky and I celebrate our golden wedding on Friday.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Does it cost more overall, though? If these people lived to a ripe old age, would they cost the country more in social security, pensions and old age care?
No. They'd work longer.
But the question isn't a stupid one. We should worry as much about morbidity as mortality.
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Yes it did feel like they'd let in a ward of incontinent pensioners. I can well understand their desire not to repeat the exercise and take steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.
The easiest way to ensure we leave would be to give Boris a minor concession that means the WA passes. While no deal is more likely than revoke the latter is still possible if this continues.
But the people inconsistently insist the EU wants rid of us and that they want us to stay .
Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May required not Barnier and ERG most oppose but likely still needs a Tory majority after a general election
I don’t mean to be rude, but we all know this is what you think a repeating it over and over again doesn’t make for an interesting discussion.
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
I was very moved by it.
It’s just rude tbh. Other people’s anthems are something you politely endure
Indeed.
It confirms what I’ve said about Farage and his mob, they are a bunch of virtue signalling snowflakes.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Does it cost more overall, though? If these people lived to a ripe old age, would they cost the country more in social security, pensions and old age care?
Probably. Diabetes and other obesity related healthcare conditions are very expensive. Fit healthy pensioners tend to keep active and put money into the economy through leisure activities. You would need to ask a health economist (if you are not averse to experts) for detail, but I think the government seems to see the obesity epidemic as an economic as well as social timebomb.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Does it cost more overall, though? If these people lived to a ripe old age, would they cost the country more in social security, pensions and old age care?
No. They'd work longer.
But the question isn't a stupid one. We should worry as much about morbidity as mortality.
It's probably more true of smokers. I guess there are chronic health problems, but generally those using cancer sticks are voluntarily doing the rest of us a favour.
Does it matter who becomes leader? Unless they deliver No Deal on Halloween then they will be the leader who loses the next election to Nigel Farrage. Driving in listening to comments and analysis on their proposed solutions to the Irish border, and its clear what is going on.
Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.
What I find admirable (!) is that they rule out all the options and then don't provide any alternative.
I presume this is because not only do they think the selectorate wazzocks but deaf wazzocks with no listening comprehension ability either.
Sadly too many leavers have been expertly propagandised to believe that the sky is purple and woe betide anyone who claims it isn't.
In a way it will be most entertaining if we actually do crash out. Whilst I don't expect that the worst apocalyptic predictions will be realised (there is ALWAYS hyperbole), it is a demonstrable fact that the UK will have a significant interruption in its ability to do the basics, and as that reality smashes "its all project fear" merchants in the face their puzzlement will be a joy to watch. And then it turns to anger. Then rage.
I fear that the rise of the hard right which has been bubbling away for a while will explode. We have all this guff currently about betrayal, but it doesn't mean anything. Once project fear types get their faces smashed in by reality, they won't be admitting the error of their lack of thinking. Instead they will be looking to find the people to blame and punish them. The rise of a Years and Years style demagogue is a very real possibility
They will, simply, blame the EU. Having told us they want to leave so that the UK can no longer blame "the other", they will set about blaming the other with a vigour never hitherto seen.
Cant he just promise a review, those who want them gone assume he will do that, but he is not committed? Win win for him.
What is it about Brexit obsessives and their use of the word "war". I saw in the Telegraph the other day that Boris would put together a "war cabinet" for Brexit, and here we have a "war on the nanny state". The subconscious links between nationalism and militarism I guess.
Interesting point. Canada won't roll over CETA for the UK under No Deal because it won't offer Canada preferential access to the UK market. Preference has value and Canada is only prepared to offer concessions for that value.
A different take from Korea that wants to lock in its current access ahead of No Deal.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Interesting point. Canada won't roll over CETA for the UK under No Deal because it won't offer Canada preferential access to the UK market. Preference has value and Canada is only prepared to offer concessions for that value.
A different take from Korea that wants to lock in its current access ahead of No Deal.
One wonders, if we do actually leave, how many years of this kind of thing we will endure before the movement to rejoin the EU wins and takes power and resets things.
Cant he just promise a review, those who want them gone assume he will do that, but he is not committed? Win win for him.
What is it about Brexit obsessives and their use of the word "war". I saw in the Telegraph the other day that Boris would put together a "war cabinet" for Brexit, and here we have a "war on the nanny state". The subconscious links between nationalism and militarism I guess.
You think that's new - I've heard politicians declare war on drugs, homelessness, crime, austerity, climate change and who knows what else.
The oddest terminology I've heard is when the head of a quango is referred to as a Tsar.
Cant he just promise a review, those who want them gone assume he will do that, but he is not committed? Win win for him.
What is it about Brexit obsessives and their use of the word "war". I saw in the Telegraph the other day that Boris would put together a "war cabinet" for Brexit, and here we have a "war on the nanny state". The subconscious links between nationalism and militarism I guess.
It taps into a certain kind of Leaver I guess. Probably grew up in the 1950s but obsessed with the War.
Cant he just promise a review, those who want them gone assume he will do that, but he is not committed? Win win for him.
What is it about Brexit obsessives and their use of the word "war". I saw in the Telegraph the other day that Boris would put together a "war cabinet" for Brexit, and here we have a "war on the nanny state". The subconscious links between nationalism and militarism I guess.
It taps into a certain kind of Leaver I guess. Probably grew up in the 1950s but obsessed with the War.
The question is who should get the bigger job. The ingratiatingly slimy servile unctuous Matt Hancock or the sycophantic fawning cringe makingly oleaginous Liz Truss?
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Interesting point. Canada won't roll over CETA for the UK under No Deal because it won't offer Canada preferential access to the UK market. Preference has value and Canada is only prepared to offer concessions for that value.
A different take from Korea that wants to lock in its current access ahead of No Deal.
One wonders, if we do actually leave, how many years of this kind of thing we will endure before the movement to rejoin the EU wins and takes power and resets things.
If we get the Canada style FTA for GB with the EU most voters want it is not a problem
The question is who should get the bigger job. The ingratiatingly slimy servile unctuous Matt Hancock or the sycophantic fawning cringe makingly oleaginous Liz Truss?
But BoZo is going to slash the size of the cabinet, so neither of them...
The other interesting question, that will most likely just be academic, is what post would Hunt give Johnson if Hunt won? Foreign Sec? That would be ludicrous. C-of-Ex? That would be mad. Can one really think of a single cabinet post that Boris would be well suited to? No says it all, and the reason he should definitely not be PM.
It would suit my book! Not believing it though. Boris will win comfortably.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
Yes it did feel like they'd let in a ward of incontinent pensioners. I can well understand their desire not to repeat the exercise and take steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.
The easiest way to ensure we leave would be to give Boris a minor concession that means the WA passes. While no deal is more likely than revoke the latter is still possible if this continues.
But the people inconsistently insist the EU wants rid of us and that they want us to stay .
Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May required not Barnier and ERG most oppose but likely still needs a Tory majority after a general election
I don’t mean to be rude, but we all know this is what you think a repeating it over and over again doesn’t make for an interesting discussion.
The 2 membership polls we have had from Yougov had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% a fortnight ago and from ConHome had it Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%.
I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).
I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001
The quote seems to be saying that this source thinks Boris has a 60% chance of winning, not that he'll get 60% of the votes.
Well he can say what he wants but a 60% Boris percentage looks plausible, Boris was on 66% last week in a ConHome members' poll so would have to have been a huge turnaround in a week for Hunt to win given ballot papers go out this week
Yes, I don't believe that source's prediction.
It may be he that source is doing it so he can say a 65% Boris vote was brilliant and better than expected
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Nudging.
Is a nudge less nannyish than a tax?
There is some literature looking at the difference between the two. In short, yes. A nudge is that, a tax is an imperative.
The question is who should get the bigger job. The ingratiatingly slimy servile unctuous Matt Hancock or the sycophantic fawning cringe makingly oleaginous Liz Truss?
If the rumours were right (big if) Liz Truss was promised Number 11 before Saj was.
Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
Not sure your meaning in your comment.
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.
Thank you and we do count our blessings day by day
My wife Jacky and I celebrate our golden wedding on Friday.
I sort of get the Hunt line on no deal. I think even the hardline Tory members (judging by on here) talk about Brexit in terms of necessity - democratic, electoral - rather than opportunity.
I'd suggested myself last month that a Tory leadership candidate, especially a slight underdog, would do well by pivoting to No Deal as a default assumption but guarantee that every way to row back from that be kept on the table as plan B, whilst No Deal played out - the idea being to keep remain MPs on board and head off a VONC. I had in mind Javid, but it works equally well for Hunt at this stage.
So, Hunt, if he is PM and gets to the point of declaring No Deal as default in September, hopefully having obtained one last extension, he should also:
- whilst talking with RoI about a post no deal border, look for any opportunity to retrofit any measures agreed into the WA / PD, with a view that it could be brought back in a pre-exit meltdown, amended or unamended - waive any protection from party VONC as a release valve from parliamentary VONC. - do under the radar legwork and take further soundings towards permanent EFTA membership on the understanding that it will only be followed to conclusion as a quickish way out post baad No Deal.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Nudging.
Is a nudge less nannyish than a tax?
I would suggest tax cuts on healthy lifestyle spending - make membership costs of gyms tax deductible for example.
Although that might merely give people more money to spend on food and drink.
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Congratulations, Mr. Smithson (and Mrs. Smithson).
Mr. Charles, and Mr. Topping, I agree entirely. May is scrabbling about for a legacy but it's irresponsible for someone on the way out to try and make long-term commitments in this way, with neither manifestos nor other public mandate in support of them.
That said, I look forward to the proposal for an English Parliament as part of the devolution review.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Nudging.
Is a nudge less nannyish than a tax?
I would suggest tax cuts on healthy lifestyle spending - make membership costs of gyms tax deductible for example.
Although that might merely give people more money to spend on food and drink.
I think you can make that case in the interests of an overall healthier population, but the key issue is obesity, and the problem appears to be sugar and cheap carbohydrate.
It’s not that this - or other of her recent announcements - are bad in themselves but she’s in the process of stepping down
It is utterly inappropriate for her to make these commitments
I suspect Theresa is secretly hoping Boris is VONC on his first day and HMQ will ask her to stay on as the only one who can command a majority in the House.
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Also my question, however, I'm pretty certain he means the likely result is 60/40. I think that gives Hunt a 14% chance of victory, though.
It’s not that this - or other of her recent announcements - are bad in themselves but she’s in the process of stepping down
It is utterly inappropriate for her to make these commitments
Why? She is still PM and has more of an electoral mandate, having fought a general election and emerged as leader of the largest party, than her successor will.
Ed Davey on radio 4 is VERY good indeed. A difficult upbringing with a handicapped child. A sympathetic and articulate man. A wonderful contrast to the self absorbed Johnson
Ed Davey on radio 4 is VERY good indeed. A difficult upbringing with a handicapped child. A sympathetic and articulate man. A wonderful contrast to the self absorbed Johnson
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Also my question, however, I'm pretty certain he means the likely result is 60/40. I think that gives Hunt a 14% chance of victory, though.
Less than that surely? The distribution is two sided so the polling miss could be in Boris's favour as well as Hunt's. On polling alone I'd rate Hunt no more then 2.5% at best.
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
Nudging.
Is a nudge less nannyish than a tax?
I would suggest tax cuts on healthy lifestyle spending - make membership costs of gyms tax deductible for example.
Although that might merely give people more money to spend on food and drink.
I think you can make that case in the interests of an overall healthier population, but the key issue is obesity, and the problem appears to be sugar and cheap carbohydrate.
The main point with these initiatives is not so much changing behaviour of individuals (though there is some evidence that can happen for minimum alcohol pricing - a visiting academic, I forget the name, presented in our department on research on that with reference to Scotland) but on companies. Producers want to sell things, they don't want their products to get more expensive. Sugar taxes make them look at changing formulations to avoid the tax. Of course, with minimum alcohol pricing there isn't an alternative formulation, other than reducing alcohol content, so it does mostly depend on changing individual behaviour.
The same approach could work with plastics, tax single use plastics (like the carrier bags) and the slightly more expensive alternatives become competitive, get bigger markets and become cheaper. I was listening to Jeremy Vine on R2 a few months ago on single use baby wipes - it was of course sensationalised, with one parent who uses loads debating with another who uses only washable flannels - including for nappy change clearup - as if those were the only alternatives. I'm a parent and use lots of wipes for nappy changes, although we do use flannels for cleaning up food after meals, but the idea that it's one or another is nonsense. Tax the plastics and the manufacturers will choose the paper/natural fibre/rapidly biodegradable plastic options that are presently a bit more expensive.
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Also my question, however, I'm pretty certain he means the likely result is 60/40. I think that gives Hunt a 14% chance of victory, though.
The way it's quoted in the header really sounds like it means a 60% chance of winning
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Also my question, however, I'm pretty certain he means the likely result is 60/40. I think that gives Hunt a 14% chance of victory, though.
The way it's quoted in the header really sounds like it means a 60% chance of winning
This is the question. I expect someone not au fait with probability would think they were the same.
It’s not that this - or other of her recent announcements - are bad in themselves but she’s in the process of stepping down
It is utterly inappropriate for her to make these commitments
Why? She is still PM and has more of an electoral mandate, having fought a general election and emerged as leader of the largest party, than her successor will.
Yes. We are not in purdah like before a general election. The problem is the 1922 or party more generally is stringing out this process. Meanwhile, life goes on, government goes on and so does Mrs May.
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
A lot of righties seemed DEEPLY hurt that folk were drawing comparisons between the BP Broederbond and NSDAP pols in the 1920s Reichstag.
Of course I don't have a problem with that either.
Trouble is that as Hunt moves to the "utter wazzocks" he loses his USP as the sensible one.
Hunt will always be more of a sensible one than Boris. He is surely playing a 'tack to the base then tack to the centre' strategy.
I have not been listening much to the hustings but Boris really worries me.
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
He has your wife? No wonder you’re voting for him.
Not sure your meaning in your comment.
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
It’s 30 years for me and her this year. I can only hope we make it to 55. Congratulations! A happy marriage is a true blessing.
Thank you and we do count our blessings day by day
My wife Jacky and I celebrate our golden wedding on Friday.
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
Also my question, however, I'm pretty certain he means the likely result is 60/40. I think that gives Hunt a 14% chance of victory, though.
Less than that surely? The distribution is two sided so the polling miss could be in Boris's favour as well as Hunt's. On polling alone I'd rate Hunt no more then 2.5% at best.
Only Boris imploding can give Hunt a victory.
Two sided, yes, but not symmetrical. Boris fans shout louder.
I was clearing out my computer last night and came across this header I'd done featuring Boris Johnson. I was far too kind to him but some of the early comments particularly by Eagle were prescient. I was also surprised by how little had changed in three years.....
He famously invited the board of British Rail to his agency for a pitch. When they arrived they found ashtrays overflowing a stained carpet and a receptionist filing her nails. After being kept waiting half an hour Marsh appeared and told them that now they knew what it felt like to be a British Rail customer…..they won the account and ‘The Age of the Train’ had arrived.
Not sure I agree with that. He should ave kept them waiting for four hours, given them false information about his progress, blocked up all the toilets and caused the sprinkler system to come on repeatedly while feeding them stale sandwiches and cold tea.
Then he could have said, 'Now, some of your customers experience this. However, if you are not one of the lucky few in London it's much worse.'
I thought this exchange was interesting. (XXX's to keep JohnO's reputation intact)
XXXXX said:
» show previous quotes I think we should wait and see what happens on June 23rd, shouldn't we? My best guess is that the result will be Remain by something like 55-45 (almost identical to the Scottish result). Both Cameron and Salmond had agreed that that settled the matter of independence for a "generation" which is about 15 years or so.
So a narrow victory and a comfortable victory amount to the same thing.
Or are you contending that 55-45, or even 60-40 would mean no re-vote for 41 years?
My point is that if remain win, the leave side can call foul on so many issues. It would have to be a thumping win to put it off for more than 15 years.
That is not a good place to be, as the whole idea of the referendum was to settle the matter for good.
Who are these Cameron and Salmond characters of whom they speak?
British Prime Minister Theresa May said Monday that she will never allow the U.K. "to become looser and weaker," in a pointed response to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a second independence referendum.
Speaking at the Department for International Development office in East Kilbride, near Glasgow, May made the case for British unity. She said: "When this great union of nations — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force."
Congratulations to all doing anniversaries - July is clearly a popular month.
OGH: Will there be competitions on the percentage vote shares of the Conservative and LD leadership elections?
Why not try something different - set a marker as in a spread trade so say Johnson gets 65% and Hunt 35% the margin would be 30%. Challenge the forum to say how much over or under they would be on that.
If you think Johnson will win by 40% go +10 - if you think Hunt will win by 5 points go -35 and so on.
I don't have a particular problem with either the Brexit party's stunt in the European Parliament yesterday or the Lib Dems'. Nobody was hurt, nobody died. Both sets of attention whores got what they wanted.
A lot of righties seemed DEEPLY hurt that folk were drawing comparisons between the BP Broederbond and NSDAP pols in the 1920s Reichstag.
Of course I don't have a problem with that either.
While it was a silly protest, that was a silly comparison. There are plenty of instances of back-turning, from NYPD policemen turning their backs on Bill de Blasio to Palestinian protestors turning their backs on the Dutch Chief Rabbi.
It’s not that this - or other of her recent announcements - are bad in themselves but she’s in the process of stepping down
It is utterly inappropriate for her to make these commitments
Why? She is still PM and has more of an electoral mandate, having fought a general election and emerged as leader of the largest party, than her successor will.
Because, in all probability, she will not be PM at the end of this month
She's not going to constitute the review panel, set its terms of reference, be there to assess its output or implement any conclusion.
So all she is doing is announcing something, getting people's hopes up, and creating a potential problem for her successor
Comments
Ali G springs to mind.
But the people inconsistently insist the EU wants rid of us and that they want us to stay .
It confirms what I’ve said about Farage and his mob, they are a bunch of virtue signalling snowflakes.
Can you imagine being triggered by Beethoven?
Oh...
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1146322786589298688
It’s not as if the masses are crying out to have one penny knocked off the price of a full-fat Coke.
Question for the libertarians: how should we deal with obesity epidemic - which, apart from individual reduction in quality of life, costs the NHS huge amounts in diabetes treatment for a start.
90% or more of it will never happen. Just a loud of hot air to win the contest. And anyway either man will be up to their necks in crisis management over Brexit and far too busy to worry about tax.
XXXXX said:
» show previous quotes
I think we should wait and see what happens on June 23rd, shouldn't we? My best guess is that the result will be Remain by something like 55-45 (almost identical to the Scottish result). Both Cameron and Salmond had agreed that that settled the matter of independence for a "generation" which is about 15 years or so.
So a narrow victory and a comfortable victory amount to the same thing.
Or are you contending that 55-45, or even 60-40 would mean no re-vote for 41 years?
My point is that if remain win, the leave side can call foul on so many issues. It would have to be a thumping win to put it off for more than 15 years.
That is not a good place to be, as the whole idea of the referendum was to settle the matter for good.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-live/en/plenary/video?date=03-07-2019
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/thepinprick.com/2017/12/11/daydream-belizers-brexit-big-sugar-and-the-strange-case-of-andy-wigmore/amp/
But the question isn't a stupid one. We should worry as much about morbidity as mortality.
A different take from Korea that wants to lock in its current access ahead of No Deal.
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1146128932275728386
The oddest terminology I've heard is when the head of a quango is referred to as a Tsar.
What's the problem?
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1141780599604224000
The list of anniversaries is an interesting one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedding_anniversary
Though I have to say I don't expect to have much use for wine at my 85th wedding anniversary celebrations.
I'd suggested myself last month that a Tory leadership candidate, especially a slight underdog, would do well by pivoting to No Deal as a default assumption but guarantee that every way to row back from that be kept on the table as plan B, whilst No Deal played out - the idea being to keep remain MPs on board and head off a VONC. I had in mind Javid, but it works equally well for Hunt at this stage.
So, Hunt, if he is PM and gets to the point of declaring No Deal as default in September, hopefully having obtained one last extension, he should also:
- whilst talking with RoI about a post no deal border, look for any opportunity to retrofit any measures agreed into the WA / PD, with a view that it could be brought back in a pre-exit meltdown, amended or unamended
- waive any protection from party VONC as a release valve from parliamentary VONC.
- do under the radar legwork and take further soundings towards permanent EFTA membership on the understanding that it will only be followed to conclusion as a quickish way out post baad No Deal.
Although that might merely give people more money to spend on food and drink.
It’s not that this - or other of her recent announcements - are bad in themselves but she’s in the process of stepping down
It is utterly inappropriate for her to make these commitments
There's a whopping difference between expecting a 60-40 result and thinking Hunt has a 40% chance. A 60-40 polling lead at this point is truthfully something like a 95% chance.
You can already feel the doom and gloom of the past three years starting to lift...
Mr. Charles, and Mr. Topping, I agree entirely. May is scrabbling about for a legacy but it's irresponsible for someone on the way out to try and make long-term commitments in this way, with neither manifestos nor other public mandate in support of them.
That said, I look forward to the proposal for an English Parliament as part of the devolution review.
That Private Eye cover of May’s achievements - a blank sheet of white paper - must have stung her into action.
Only Boris imploding can give Hunt a victory.
The same approach could work with plastics, tax single use plastics (like the carrier bags) and the slightly more expensive alternatives become competitive, get bigger markets and become cheaper. I was listening to Jeremy Vine on R2 a few months ago on single use baby wipes - it was of course sensationalised, with one parent who uses loads debating with another who uses only washable flannels - including for nappy change clearup - as if those were the only alternatives. I'm a parent and use lots of wipes for nappy changes, although we do use flannels for cleaning up food after meals, but the idea that it's one or another is nonsense. Tax the plastics and the manufacturers will choose the paper/natural fibre/rapidly biodegradable plastic options that are presently a bit more expensive.
Of course I don't have a problem with that either.
https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-uk-an-unstoppable-force-when-nations-act-together-brexit-scotland-independence-second-referendum-snp-sturgeon/
British Prime Minister Theresa May said Monday that she will never allow the U.K. "to become looser and weaker," in a pointed response to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a second independence referendum.
Speaking at the Department for International Development office in East Kilbride, near Glasgow, May made the case for British unity. She said: "When this great union of nations — England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force."
Congratulations to all doing anniversaries - July is clearly a popular month.
OGH: Will there be competitions on the percentage vote shares of the Conservative and LD leadership elections?
Why not try something different - set a marker as in a spread trade so say Johnson gets 65% and Hunt 35% the margin would be 30%. Challenge the forum to say how much over or under they would be on that.
If you think Johnson will win by 40% go +10 - if you think Hunt will win by 5 points go -35 and so on.
Same for the LD leadership.
Ska KELLER (Greens, Germany) 133
Sira REGO (GUE, Spain) 42
David-Maria SASSOLI (S&D, Italy) 325
Jan ZAHRADIL (ECR, Czech Republic) 162
73 blanc or invalid
Majority required was 332
New ballot now
She's not going to constitute the review panel, set its terms of reference, be there to assess its output or implement any conclusion.
So all she is doing is announcing something, getting people's hopes up, and creating a potential problem for her successor