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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and John
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Robert Peston suggesting that the battle between Hunt and Johnson much tighter than anybody thought
With voting now taking place amongst CON members ITV’s Politcal Editor, Robert Peston writes on the Coffee House blog
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Worth backing Hunt?
I saw some of ITV News last night, with Bradby and Peston telling us their opinions, with the odd sprinkling of news here and there.
Think it was slightly odd that Peston, describing this shift, didn't point out the primary reason Hunt didn't rule out no deal, that being if he does so the options are deal or remain, and if Parliament doesn't pass a deal, he'd have to back remaining.
No votes have been cast yet. We do not receive our ballot papers until the 6th to the 8th July
He blusters through interviews, has no eye for detail including being unaware of the actual minimum wage rates, and is in truth vacuous and is winging it
Indeed, he does seem to lack confidence and at times appears nervous
I doubt Hunt will win but he has my wife and my votes
My wife and I have been happily married for 55 years and our secret is to respect each others views and our decision to vote for Hunt was arrived at individually
It would be remarkable if Tory members were more sensible than their MPs.
They also need to grow up
ETA before the campaign, as some of us keep telling HYUFD here and in America, polling just reflects name recognition.
Hunt has gone full fruit loop this week and gives every impression of auditioning for a part in the Johnson cabinet. Surely he would not have done this if he thought he had a genuine chance of winning.
Peston's political antennae is perennially off-track.
'Boris Johnson imposes sugar tax at City Hall'
I actually share a dislike for sugar taxes and the suchlike. But I have sod all confidence in Boris to do anything, and he'd be disastrous in other areas anyway, even if he kept that promise. [But then, I also don't have a vote].
I don't see that as at all likely but I do have a Laphroaig whiskey miniature to drink of it comes to pass.
Isn’t “cash out” an offer to treat?
Hence if you hit the button and Betfair doesn’t give you the money you’ve grounds for complaint?
I’d keep a screenshot though!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/13/the-big-euref-advertising-news-is-that-the-saatchis-are-back/#vanilla-comments
And on the day that BBC News leads with obesity overtaking smoking as cause of some cancers
Putting to one side her politics Margaret Thatcher was a master. Riding atop a tank whilst handbagging her way through government and opposition with sheer grit, hard work and "boring" attention to detail and facts.
The LibDems got the attention they wanted and in terms of their REMAIN position they are preeminent in UK politics that has propelled them to a position few of us would has predicted six months ago. It's difficult to argue the politics of the situation even if you dislike the BollocksToBrexit optic.
Not sure I agree with that. He should ave kept them waiting for four hours, given them false information about his progress, blocked up all the toilets and caused the sprinkler system to come on repeatedly while feeding them stale sandwiches and cold tea.
Then he could have said, 'Now, some of your customers experience this. However, if you are not one of the lucky few in London it's much worse.'
Cigarettes suppress appetite, fewer smokers mean more eaters
It is more likely that Peston’s sources are weighted towards long-standing members and less so the entryists.
We both agree that we don't like the Conservatives policies, and we don't trust Johnson.
And it’s rather unreasonable to expect opposition politicians to make themselves invisible.
Isn’t it more likely that he says whatever he has to in any given situation? For him a promise is just a form of words rather than anything which has more than fleeting significance
Boris has got this at a canter.
Johnson and Hunt know there is no technology solution. But they know the selectorate are wazzocks, so they are lying to win their votes. Ordinarily politicians openly lying would be something of a scandal, but with Bozza the scandal would be him not lying, and as Hunt looks like Goebbels anyway I don't see why he should be honest either.
Or name recognition.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/07/08/what-led-perus-former-president-to-take-his-own-life
Is this a universal phenomenon ?
He describes him as on the surface full of confidence but, in fact, dogged by uncertainty and obsessed with status. “There was something missing, replaced, as it were, by ambition,” Lauer told me. “García didn’t seem to be completely there. And those who aren’t there tend to make stupendous candidates because people can project onto them whatever they wish.”...
Seems to me that disingenuous, deceitful, perfidious might all be better terms?
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/das-zukuenftige-eu-personal-fast-nur-verlierer-im-spitzenposten-16265965.html
But Boris would not accept anything less than a Great Office.
Though the question shall not arise.
Looking at yesterdays antics in the European Parliament the division in Britain was on full display. I think that they want rid of us soon, I cannot see another extension even if we begged. It is revoke or No Deal now.
I presume this is because not only do they think the selectorate wazzocks but deaf wazzocks with no listening comprehension ability either.
I did tip the 7.8 winner, though.
And you, sir, are a scallywag.
https://twitter.com/MagicMagid/status/1146022757580386306?s=19
The obvious one is a referendum. Do WA vs No Deal then put the winner against Remain. That'll probably pass parliament. If it's WA then they win, if it's No Deal then at least what follows isn't entirely their fault, and if it's Remain then that's the end of that, for all but a few enthusiasts.
Leave people will obviously be hopping mad when they *announce* this, but once the campaign is under way it's the subject matter that matters not the procedure, and once it's done it's done.
No, I don't like it much either.
I suspect it has narrowed a bit again this week as Hunt has hardened his Brexit stance towards No Deal if no prospect of a Deal by September (though still without the Boris commitment to Leave Deal or No Deal by the end of October).
I suspect Boris 60% Hunt 40% as the final result would be pretty accurate ie about the same margin IDS beat Ken Clarke in 2001 with the membership and a little bit closer than the margin by which David Cameron beat David Davis in 2001
The problem is that you Tories expect everybody else to just roll over and do as we are told. In fact, the Conservatives no longer speak for Britain. People throughout the EU can see that very clearly.
In a way it will be most entertaining if we actually do crash out. Whilst I don't expect that the worst apocalyptic predictions will be realised (there is ALWAYS hyperbole), it is a demonstrable fact that the UK will have a significant interruption in its ability to do the basics, and as that reality smashes "its all project fear" merchants in the face their puzzlement will be a joy to watch. And then it turns to anger. Then rage.
I fear that the rise of the hard right which has been bubbling away for a while will explode. We have all this guff currently about betrayal, but it doesn't mean anything. Once project fear types get their faces smashed in by reality, they won't be admitting the error of their lack of thinking. Instead they will be looking to find the people to blame and punish them. The rise of a Years and Years style demagogue is a very real possibility
As Yougov has also showed if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the end of October and we are still in the EU by the next general election having extended Article 50 again they are toast regsrdless of which one of them wins
In 2015 of course Corbyn did not win pre 2015 Labour members or was tied at best I think but won a landslide with post 2015 members and registered supporters, winning 59.5% overall
Her record indicates if it were to come back shed find a way not to back it, complaining that the new PM said something rude about labour or something.