A question for all the experts on here. If I wanted to wipe out the Conservative Party, could you beat this scenario -
- A rival party on the right with a grievance to play on that resonates with Tory supporters. - A Labour Party with a programme that appeals strongly to its base and which motivates its activists. - A controversial leader with a backstory that repels large chunks of potential supporters. - A Lib Dem revival on the back of advocating a policy that appeals to a large chunk of the Tory base which is located in geographical areas where the Conservatives hold a lot of seats.
A Tony Blair type figure (for the current age) would be a better bet at point two.
Better for the Labour vote certainly. But it might not cost the blues quite so many seats.
Only at first glance. Look more closely and you’ll find that soft Tories are much more willing to go LibDem when they don’t fear Labour getting in so much. Cf. All the seats the LDs won under Blair.
A question for all the experts on here. If I wanted to wipe out the Conservative Party, could you beat this scenario -
- A rival party on the right with a grievance to play on that resonates with Tory supporters. - A Labour Party with a programme that appeals strongly to its base and which motivates its activists. - A controversial leader with a backstory that repels large chunks of potential supporters. - A Lib Dem revival on the back of advocating a policy that appeals to a large chunk of the Tory base which is located in geographical areas where the Conservatives hold a lot of seats.
A Tony Blair type figure (for the current age) would be a better bet at point two.
Better for the Labour vote certainly. But it might not cost the blues quite so many seats.
Only at first glance. Look more closely and you’ll find that soft Tories are much more willing to go LibDem when they don’t fear Labour getting in so much. Cf. All the seats the LDs won under Blair.
A question for all the experts on here. If I wanted to wipe out the Conservative Party, could you beat this scenario -
- A rival party on the right with a grievance to play on that resonates with Tory supporters. - A Labour Party with a programme that appeals strongly to its base and which motivates its activists. - A controversial leader with a backstory that repels large chunks of potential supporters. - A Lib Dem revival on the back of advocating a policy that appeals to a large chunk of the Tory base which is located in geographical areas where the Conservatives hold a lot of seats.
A Tony Blair type figure (for the current age) would be a better bet at point two.
Better for the Labour vote certainly. But it might not cost the blues quite so many seats.
Only at first glance. Look more closely and you’ll find that soft Tories are much more willing to go LibDem when they don’t fear Labour getting in so much. Cf. All the seats the LDs won under Blair.
Okay, in that case point taken.
But also, of course, when Labour is so far out of the race that it doesn’t appear on the cusp of winning, that has the same effect. As in 1983, and arguably as now.
A question for all the experts on here. If I wanted to wipe out the Conservative Party, could you beat this scenario -
- A rival party on the right with a grievance to play on that resonates with Tory supporters. - A Labour Party with a programme that appeals strongly to its base and which motivates its activists. - A controversial leader with a backstory that repels large chunks of potential supporters. - A Lib Dem revival on the back of advocating a policy that appeals to a large chunk of the Tory base which is located in geographical areas where the Conservatives hold a lot of seats.
A Tony Blair type figure (for the current age) would be a better bet at point two.
Better for the Labour vote certainly. But it might not cost the blues quite so many seats.
Only at first glance. Look more closely and you’ll find that soft Tories are much more willing to go LibDem when they don’t fear Labour getting in so much. Cf. All the seats the LDs won under Blair.
Okay, in that case point taken.
But also, of course, when Labour is so far out of the race that it doesn’t appear on the cusp of winning, that has the same effect. As in 1983, and arguably as now.
I think that I am assuming that the Labour manifesto in 2017 would normally have motivated left leaning voters and repelled right leaning ones. So in a more normal election it would have delivered a reasonable but not a winning performance for Labour. So it would block Tories winning many Labour seats. If the Tories were also under pressure from both Brexit Party and the Lib Dems they could potentially be in trouble nearly everywhere in the country.
A question for all the experts on here. If I wanted to wipe out the Conservative Party, could you beat this scenario -
- A rival party on the right with a grievance to play on that resonates with Tory supporters. - A Labour Party with a programme that appeals strongly to its base and which motivates its activists. - A controversial leader with a backstory that repels large chunks of potential supporters. - A Lib Dem revival on the back of advocating a policy that appeals to a large chunk of the Tory base which is located in geographical areas where the Conservatives hold a lot of seats.
A Tony Blair type figure (for the current age) would be a better bet at point two.
Better for the Labour vote certainly. But it might not cost the blues quite so many seats.
Only at first glance. Look more closely and you’ll find that soft Tories are much more willing to go LibDem when they don’t fear Labour getting in so much. Cf. All the seats the LDs won under Blair.
Okay, in that case point taken.
But also, of course, when Labour is so far out of the race that it doesn’t appear on the cusp of winning, that has the same effect. As in 1983, and arguably as now.
I think that I am assuming that the Labour manifesto in 2017 would normally have motivated left leaning voters and repelled right leaning ones. So in a more normal election it would have delivered a reasonable but not a winning performance for Labour. So it would block Tories winning many Labour seats. If the Tories were also under pressure from both Brexit Party and the Lib Dems they could potentially be in trouble nearly everywhere in the country.
Not a prediction of course, just wondering. All things end some time including political parties.
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
I've mentioned this before: numbers[1], percentages[2], thresholds. You need all three for understanding. Specifically in this case: what is the threshold at which one might be said to live in a bubble?
[1]: absolute numbers: are we talking about those who voted R/L, or currently want to R/L [2] to be more precise, variance, but's let's not overcomplicate things.
The idea that Scots will flock to independence after the car crash of Brexit over the last three years, which the breakup of the UK would make look like a picnic, is fanciful in the extreme.
The one thing that will turn wavering Tory members back to Boris is wee nippy sweetie sticking her oar in
The usual Tory tactic, lost for answers just insult the person bringing the bad news.
The idea that Scots will flock to independence after the car crash of Brexit over the last three years, which the breakup of the UK would make look like a picnic, is fanciful in the extreme.
Hot news from the M25, there are none so blind as those that will not see.
Comments
[1]: absolute numbers: are we talking about those who voted R/L, or currently want to R/L
[2] to be more precise, variance, but's let's not overcomplicate things.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1142783046103523332