The LibDems have three months to make a demonstrable breakthrough. If they don’t, millions of us are going to have the Sophie’s Choice of Corbyn or Johnson. I spent years hoping to live in a Labour/Tory marginal so my vote would count. Now I wish I didn’t!
Suddenly my being limited to the peoples Republic of bercow makes things rather easier...
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.
Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
On tinder you get a lot of people saying ‘if you voted Brexit or Trump, swipe left’ but I never saw one saying ‘no lefties/remainers’
Which they might not, for the reason I’ve outlined.
Read my statement again:-
Boris has 1 way to dissolve Parliament to ask Parliament to dissolve itself (434 votes required). The leader of the opposition can call a VoNC and after that there are 2 weeks to try and form a Government before it moves to a general election.
One or other things can occur but Boris asking for Parliament to be dissolved doesn't give the other parties a chance to form a Government that needs a VoNC to tabled and won first.
Is that what’s known as a deconstructed pyramid of piffle ?
I reckon he just doesn't understand it. Which i suppose gives some hope that he might be forced to change course once in office. I doubt he's even read the WA. He talks about "with-holding the £37b" but clearly doesn't understand that a proportion of that is simply Single Market payments in return for the 2 two year transitional period. Just changing the wording to "implementation" doesn't change that.
Without the WA there is no transition or implementation period. We become a third country on 1st November.
With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.
He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.
I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.
Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.
Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
Don't forget that unlike Corbyn Boris was the leading choice among Conservative MPs.
Forget the polling now, what would it look like if Hunt or Boris were PM. From what we know of Boris mightn't it all unravel very quickly?
Go back to 2007. Many Labour MPs hoped that Brown would 'change' once he had become PM and his grievances out of the way. I doubted that view on this website and thought the Stalinist ruthlessness described by Lord Turnball would in the end do for Brown whatever honeymoon he might enjoy.
Yet what seems striking about Tory MPs is they aren't expecting Boris to change. They know what he's like but don't anticipate the public will turn on him once he's in high office. Really?
I suspect the trajectory will be like Berlusconi in Italy. A national embarassment but tolerated because the alternative was seen as being worse. They just swallowed hard and learnt to live with it. Fortunately our closest friends and allies will be gone by then so we can at least suffer our humiliation on our own
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
"Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk” watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful” could jump ship to bring him down."
Is that what’s known as a deconstructed pyramid of piffle ?
I reckon he just doesn't understand it. Which i suppose gives some hope that he might be forced to change course once in office. I doubt he's even read the WA. He talks about "with-holding the £37b" but clearly doesn't understand that a proportion of that is simply Single Market payments in return for the 2 two year transitional period. Just changing the wording to "implementation" doesn't change that.
Without the WA there is no transition or implementation period. We become a third country on 1st November.
I know that, he doesn't (appear to). I was just pointing out that some of the money is specifically linked to the transition period (as opposed to overall liabilities).
It is. He is rated an 80% chance now. On Friday morning it was 92%. So he has moved from 'racing certainty' to 'overwhelming favourite'. If the next move is downwards to below 75%, this would take him into merely 'clear favourite' territory, at which point we could be looking at the momentum taking it away from him - progression then as follows - clear favourite - slight favourite - LOSER and LOST.
All this polling shows is like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters relative to Johnson who will not actually vote Tory but Boris still leads with 2017 Tories who might actually vote Tory.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
"Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk” watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful” could jump ship to bring him down."
Will Change UK become the new Chiltern Hundreds/Manor of Northstead, as the means of leaving the Tory Party as opposed to standing down from Parliament? With no more than two members at any one time?
It is. He is rated an 80% chance now. On Friday morning it was 92%. So he has moved from 'racing certainty' to 'overwhelming favourite'. If the next move is downwards to below 75%, this would take him into merely 'clear favourite' territory, at which point we could be looking at the momentum taking it away from him - progression then as follows - clear favourite - slight favourite - LOSER and LOST.
Here's hoping.
He was dreadful at the hustings apparently.
Doesn't really matter unless the punters are the Tory membership.
With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.
He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.
I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.
Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.
Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
Don't forget that unlike Corbyn Boris was the leading choice among Conservative MPs.
Forget the polling now, what would it look like if Hunt or Boris were PM. From what we know of Boris mightn't it all unravel very quickly?
Go back to 2007. Many Labour MPs hoped that Brown would 'change' once he had become PM and his grievances out of the way. I doubted that view on this website and thought the Stalinist ruthlessness described by Lord Turnball would in the end do for Brown whatever honeymoon he might enjoy.
Yet what seems striking about Tory MPs is they aren't expecting Boris to change. They know what he's like but don't anticipate the public will turn on him once he's in high office. Really?
I suspect the trajectory will be like Berlusconi in Italy. A national embarassment but tolerated because the alternative was seen as being worse. They just swallowed hard and learnt to live with it. Fortunately our closest friends and allies will be gone by then so we can at least suffer our humiliation on our own
President Trump is pro Boris, Australian PM Morrison is pro Boris, Italian Deputy PM Salvini is pro Boris, Indian PM Modi is pro Boris, that is rubbish
General Election alert: Boris Johnson planning early election as Tories demand Farage deal
BORIS JOHNSON could call an early election if he becomes Prime Minister, it has emerged, after a shock poll suggested almost two-thirds of Conservative members would welcome a coalition with the Brexit Party.
At the moment he can't admit this might have to be prior to Brexit but he soon will when it's obvious Brexit won't be delivered on Oct 31st. It will be a Brexit or bust election.
Those newspaper stories (one of which confirms it isnt his preference) are making a lot of not very much, and of course everyone knows an election is a clear possibility anyway.
It's not just a newspaper story. It's a video taken last week of Boris putting them on a General Election footing for this year.
So unless you think it's fake video footage you're talking out of your hat.
Here is what Boris said at the hustings - which we all saw on TV - as reported by the Standard: "Insisting he would not call a general election, Mr Johnson said: "We are looking at a very difficult situation and we must get ready, eventually but not immediately, to beat Jeremy Corbyn and put Farage back in his box."
We can debate whether he meant it - but please don't deny that he said it. He's made similar comments in radio interviews.
Boris is getting like Trump in that he makes so many ambiguous or contradictory statements that it is impossible to pin him down, but allows supporters to latch on to whatever they need to vote for him.
It is. He is rated an 80% chance now. On Friday morning it was 92%. So he has moved from 'racing certainty' to 'overwhelming favourite'. If the next move is downwards to below 75%, this would take him into merely 'clear favourite' territory, at which point we could be looking at the momentum taking it away from him - progression then as follows - clear favourite - slight favourite - LOSER and LOST.
Here's hoping.
He was dreadful at the hustings apparently.
There are tons of excepts on YouTube, as well as the full works here:
Boris's opening speech is here. It's not too bad, but typically heavy on convoluted vocabulary and light on insight or logic. It does suggest a plan forming in his mind to get Brexit done (somehow) and then pivot to the centre.
All this polling shows is like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters relative to Johnson who will not actually vote Tory but Boris still leads with 2017 Tories who might actually vote Tory.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
Well at least you're not relying on the ComRes poll of 395 seats any more. Are you going to change your mind if the 2017 Con voters continue to rush towards Hunt - Johnson's lead has been slashed by 15% in a day not much more and he's in real trouble.
With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.
He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.
I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.
Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.
Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
With regards to a VONC, it's not simply a question of waiting to see if Johnson goes for No Deal.
He is a deeply divisive figure and widely disliked in the parliamentary party. Remember, that despite 5 rounds of voting and several options, nearly half of his MPs still refused to support his leadership.
I predict that half a dozen tory MPs will not support his premiership.
Cameron got less than 50% in the final MP ballot in 2005 . So your argument falls
Grieve was on the radio yesterday talking about a possible VONC. He said he did not wish to destabilise a Conservative government and would vote against it only in extremis. He also said that if Boris were defeated another Conservative PM could take office without a General Election.
Others may take a diffent line, but I would doubt that Boris would fall at the first hurdle, especially as some independents might abstain.. There will also be a desire to avoid embarassing the Queen by having her new PM voted out. If it became clear that Boris could not command the House Theresa May would perhaps stay in office until the crisis were resolved.
Don't forget that unlike Corbyn Boris was the leading choice among Conservative MPs.
Forget the polling now, what would it look like if Hunt or Boris were PM. From what we know of Boris mightn't it all unravel very quickly?
Go back to 2007. Many Labour MPs hoped that Brown would 'change' once he had become PM and his grievances out of the way. I doubted that view on this website and thought the Stalinist ruthlessness described by Lord Turnball would in the end do for Brown whatever honeymoon he might enjoy.
Yet what seems striking about Tory MPs is they aren't expecting Boris to change. They know what he's like but don't anticipate the public will turn on him once he's in high office. Really?
I suspect the trajectory will be like Berlusconi in Italy. A national embarassment but tolerated because the alternative was seen as being worse. They just swallowed hard and learnt to live with it. Fortunately our closest friends and allies will be gone by then so we can at least suffer our humiliation on our own
President Trump is pro Boris, Australian PM Morrison is pro Boris, Italian Deputy PM Salvini is pro Boris, Indian PM Modi is pro Boris, that is rubbish
That’s hardly a PPB for the Labour Party when it was your very own Gordon Brown who gleefully saved the bankers.
But rest-assured that the SNP will be using this Boris quote. Boris is quite simply a gift that keeps on giving. Ruth is in despair.
Saving the bankers came with saving the banks. That was absolutely necessary and is not the same thing as being their friends. However, putting that aside I think you'll struggle to argue that the Labour party now is led by the same kind of people who were leading it in 2008. Totally agree on Johnson and Scotland. The right-wing English nationalism he has embraced at the behest of Bannon and the utter uselessness of Scottish Labour are both gifts to the SNP. I suspect the LibDems may also benefit.
The Brexit Party were second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
Meanwhile .... The President of the Noise Abatement Society, Mr Rory Lauda, has invited Boris Johnson to a silent retreat in the wilds of Highland Inverness-shire. Mr Lauda speaking in sign language indicated :
"We had the pleasure of one Conservative leader - Ian Duncan Smith as the "Quiet Man" and I invite Boris Johnson to become the "Mute Man".
Boris Johnson indicated a reply in sign language with two adjoining digits of his right hand thrust forcefully in the air. However Mr. Johnson's campaign team is said to favour the idea for the next four weeks.
It is. He is rated an 80% chance now. On Friday morning it was 92%. So he has moved from 'racing certainty' to 'overwhelming favourite'. If the next move is downwards to below 75%, this would take him into merely 'clear favourite' territory, at which point we could be looking at the momentum taking it away from him - progression then as follows - clear favourite - slight favourite - LOSER and LOST.
Here's hoping.
He was dreadful at the hustings apparently.
Yep. He was awful, especially in comparison with Hunt, although the faithful seemed to lap it up.
I doubt they can be shaken from their faith now, but they will be a very unhappy and disillusioned mob by the end of the autumn if not sooner.
Is the ‘unite to win” hunt slogan deliberately in Tory and TBL Ltd blue. Are they the only people who need to unite? Oh sorry were talking about the party not the country
Normally, having lots of TV coverage for its potential leaders is good for a party. I wonder if the Conservatives are not running the risk of a hugely-publicised unpopularity contest, as Boris's minions strike back against Hunt (as they certainly will)?
All this polling shows is like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters relative to Johnson who will not actually vote Tory but Boris still leads with 2017 Tories who might actually vote Tory.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
Has the dramatic shift in hypothetical polling since Carriegate not sowed even a seed in your mind that relying on single polls to state categorically what will happen in the future, without bringing any insight or judgement to bear, might just be a little dumb?
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
He doesn't really understand that no Withdrawal Agreement means no Implementation period or FTA does he?
How did someone so stupid manage to get an Oxford degree?
Either he doesn't know there won't be a transition after No Deal or he thinks the membership are too thick/obsessed with Brexit to know there won't be a transition after No Deal. Who really knows?
As was reported last week Boris really wants a FTA for GB and will hold a referendum in NI on the backstop so he can sideline the DUP, which is also why he needs a majority.
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
A lot of hot air. Boris will win regardless of what he does because the Tory selectorate are prepared to sacrifice the economy the Union and the party to secure thebrexit. They no longer have any idea what thebrexit actually is, does, or delivers, but they voted for it and they are going to have it.
Boris has pledged to leave on Halloween. So he will win. It does not matter that he has no plan as to how he will do that - not to a selectorate who don't care. They know we can leave with no deal. That will do. So no explanation is needed and frankly Hunt will make hi self look like a fool if he starts trying to distract and obstruct by asking how.
Good interview on Radio Scotland this morning with David Milliband. Came across very well and sounded just like the kind of sensible , thoughtful politician we needed rather than the bunch of dross we currently have. That banana and his brother have a lot to answer for.
As was reported last week Boris really wants a FTA for GB and will hold a referendum in NI on the backstop so he can sideline the DUP, which is also why he needs a majority.
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
As was reported last week Boris really wants a FTA for GB and will hold a referendum in NI on the backstop so he can sideline the DUP, which is also why he needs a majority.
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
But now you've ditched the ComRes poll and are relying on the Survation poll from yesterday he no longer gets that majority...
All this polling shows is like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters relative to Johnson who will not actually vote Tory but Boris still leads with 2017 Tories who might actually vote Tory.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
Has the dramatic shift in hypothetical polling since Carriegate not sowed even a seed in your mind that relying on single polls to state categorically what will happen in the future, without bringing any insight or judgement to bear, might just be a little dumb?
This is the Survation hypothetical polling from today, Boris wins back many Brexit Party voters and loses a few to the LDs, Hunt still loses voters to the Brexit Party without winning any new voters from the LDs
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.
Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
On tinder you get a lot of people saying ‘if you voted Brexit or Trump, swipe left’ but I never saw one saying ‘no lefties/remainers’
All this polling shows is like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters relative to Johnson who will not actually vote Tory but Boris still leads with 2017 Tories who might actually vote Tory.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
Well at least you're not relying on the ComRes poll of 395 seats any more. Are you going to change your mind if the 2017 Con voters continue to rush towards Hunt - Johnson's lead has been slashed by 15% in a day not much more and he's in real trouble.
It was inevitable Hunt would close the gap and in a sense good Boris has a proper contest but with 2017 Tories Boris still has a clear lead and without them the Tories have no chance of winning the next general election
LOL, we want to fund a 3rd runway for London like we want a hole in the head and given Tories hide in the back of blacked out range rovers and never see a member of the public one can only imagine the well wishers are the 13 brown noser MPs and the Colonel
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.
Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
On tinder you get a lot of people saying ‘if you voted Brexit or Trump, swipe left’ but I never saw one saying ‘no lefties/remainers’
As was reported last week Boris really wants a FTA for GB and will hold a referendum in NI on the backstop so he can sideline the DUP, which is also why he needs a majority.
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
But now you've ditched the ComRes poll and are relying on the Survation poll from yesterday he no longer gets that majority...
If he wins back more Brexit Party voters he does but regardless with Survation as with Comres and with Yougov the Tories do better with Boris than with Hunt and that is the key point
It is. He is rated an 80% chance now. On Friday morning it was 92%. So he has moved from 'racing certainty' to 'overwhelming favourite'. If the next move is downwards to below 75%, this would take him into merely 'clear favourite' territory, at which point we could be looking at the momentum taking it away from him - progression then as follows - clear favourite - slight favourite - LOSER and LOST.
Here's hoping.
He was dreadful at the hustings apparently.
Be careful of chasing the markets.
The only views that matter will be those of Tory party members, most of whom will cast their votes in the next 3 weeks.
TBH I don't think it's entirely fair to blame Cameron for the FTPA. IIRC it was part of the LibDem package for the coalition, which also included a fairer voting system and reform of the House of Lords. Cameron shafted Clegg et al over some of the package, but at the time the FTPA seemed like good insurance against such shafting.
Yes it was a LD policy. In the UK it was a good strategy for a PM who had clearly won most seats but not an overall majority to call an election a few months later to push for a majority government. To put FTs in the coalition agreement would have made it hard for Cameron to break the Coalition early without fending off accisations of being a "promise breaker" and "can't be trusted".
Remember a LD policy is to make coalition government normal (like in many European countries) and the PM being allowed to call an election with no notice given to the coalition partner is not conducive to coalitions.
LOL, we want to fund a 3rd runway for London like we want a hole in the head and given Tories hide in the back of blacked out range rovers and never see a member of the public one can only imagine the well wishers are the 13 brown noser MPs and the Colonel
+1 - given a choice between flying via London or via Schiphol give me Schiphol any day...
The latter. Too many people have said it over too long a period, and from people who claim great insight to boot.
I don't know - it's likely but not definite. When groups of politicians don't understand stuff they often delegate one of their group as the "expert" who explains everything to them and they rely on implicitly. That that person is often not any sort of an expert at all doesn't really matter, they just declare themselves as such and everyone else follows their lead.
Con 21.9%, Lab 25.1%, LD 18.1%, Brex 22.1%, Grn 6.9%
Con 116 Lab 250 LD 65 Brex 147 Grn 1 PC 2 SNP 51 NI 18
Lab 76 short of overall majority.
Although the detail will be wrong, I think the overall shape is instructive.
Both the Tory and Lab vote is being severely reduced by the Brexit party and LibDems (and Greens). But the Tories are much more damaged in terms of seats.
I guess that is something to do with the more even spread of the Leave vote and the vagaries of FPTP.
Conservative MPs have picked 2 of the poorest candidates from the last 5 to go through.
This won’t end well.
Who was better
Gove and Saj.
Rory was at least interesting.
Hunt is dull , Boris is a clown.
Agreed but we are where we are.
Despite Hyufd blind loyalty to Boris I fear it is all downhill for him after yesterdays first husting and with 15 more to come. That is one every two days for the next month and I expect to see Boris lose his much deminishing mojo completely by the end of the process
The polling, so much Hyufd's bible, is going to be very interesting over the next few weeks
LOL, we want to fund a 3rd runway for London like we want a hole in the head and given Tories hide in the back of blacked out range rovers and never see a member of the public one can only imagine the well wishers are the 13 brown noser MPs and the Colonel
+1 - given a choice between flying via London or via Schiphol give me Schiphol any day...
As was reported last week Boris really wants a FTA for GB and will hold a referendum in NI on the backstop so he can sideline the DUP, which is also why he needs a majority.
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
But now you've ditched the ComRes poll and are relying on the Survation poll from yesterday he no longer gets that majority...
If he wins back more Brexit Party voters he does but regardless with Survation as with Comres and with Yougov the Tories do better with Boris than with Hunt and that is the key point
Can you ever make a statement without referring to polls and bending them to your narrative
Mr. Observer, Boris isn't fit to be PM. Yet I'd still rather have a self-absorbed idiot than someone who is also a self-absorbed idiot and has the likes of McDonnell lurking about muttering things about making it so Coalition MPs can't go out in public, and describing rioters as the best of their movement.
It's also a lot easier to remove a Conservative leader than it is to get rid of a Labour one.
But it would be nice if we had a major party that wasn't led by an imbecile.
Bannon and his white supremacism comes with Johnson. I see the next Tory leader and Corbyn as direct equivalents.
I certainly dont see a vast gulf between Corbynite Labour and Tory party which is happy to see the UK break apart to get no deal Brexit (not Brexit, since they could have had that aleady). They dont care about business, they dont care about unionism, they want the most radical EU option available.
What exactly are they offering that BXP are not? Other than fear of Corbyn they have no appeal left, and that's not enough.
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
As outlined here on PB by some of us for weeks now.
The real betting opportunity here is looking at who that other Tory might be. Someone non-controversial or active in warning against No Deal.
I'd be looking at keeping Tory candidates on the next PM market on side like Philip Hammond, David Lidington or even Ken Clarke. If you want real GoT psycho-drama, Jo Johnson. A Labour equivalent might be someone respected like Hilary Benn.
Some are still available in the 1000s, like those who aren't even MPs such as David Cameron, which is remarkable.
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
It's a very interesting article. The distribution of support for Leave and Remain means the former are likely to be acquainted with people who voted Remain, the latter less so with people who voted Leave. If say, you were a student living in inner London, it's most unlikely you would know anyone who voted Leave.
Also, if an election were to turn purely on Remain/Leave, FPTP gives a big advantage to the side whose support is less concentrated.
On tinder you get a lot of people saying ‘if you voted Brexit or Trump, swipe left’ but I never saw one saying ‘no lefties/remainers’
Is Tinder popular with the retired?
They register with Tinder because they mix it up with Twitter.
A lot of hot air. Boris will win regardless of what he does because the Tory selectorate are prepared to sacrifice the economy the Union and the party to secure thebrexit. They no longer have any idea what thebrexit actually is, does, or delivers, but they voted for it and they are going to have it.
Boris has pledged to leave on Halloween. So he will win. It does not matter that he has no plan as to how he will do that - not to a selectorate who don't care. They know we can leave with no deal. That will do. So no explanation is needed and frankly Hunt will make hi self look like a fool if he starts trying to distract and obstruct by asking how.
Boris. A snap election. No deal.
You are right. Rather than demand clarification, Hunt should merely advertise Boris's contradictions and inconsistencies. Hunt's point should be not that Boris is wrong on some abstruse point or other but that Boris simply can't be relied upon.
Boris, meanwhile, should adopt my plan of a massively extended transition period bought from the EU by ditching May's red lines on FOM and safeguarding EU citizens in Britain (and actually Boris is already moving this way) and bought from Ireland and the DUP by its allowing time to develop technological solutions to the Irish border problem. So Boris can still leave on halloween but not fall straight into WTO terms.
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
Wow, talk about demonstrating the exact point you are trying to refute.
Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:
● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.
● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead.
Idiot , the people do not want to fund more London, we want to fund expanding our own infrastructure. Why would anyone want to have to go via London and have hours of hassle etc.
Three years. Hats off to the Remainers really, who would have thought they could filibuster for thirty six months?
Like all revolutions Brexit was brought low by its own radicals. It woz the ERG wot dun it.
Any accurate history book will record there was a credible and pragmatic path out of the EU, in a managed and sensible way, via the WA and a future PD that was agreed to be converted into a full FTA by the end of this Parliament.
And the ERG, whilst not holding all the votes, are the ones who blew it up and provided cover for others to vote against it.
Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.
That doesn't make 'Leavers' more tolerant people. Being a Leaver in itself shows you to be intolerant and almost certainly a xenophobe. Of course Remainers wouldn't want their nearest and dearest to hook up with an inward looking xenophobe who is more than likely a racist to boot
Wow, talk about demonstrating the exact point you are trying to refute.
Actually, on a separate point does anyone else share my view that the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been a massive cock-up?
Definitely not, it's working great.
The main thing it's doing right now if it's doing anything is preventing the PM from pulling shenanigans on parliament where they do something that there isn't a parliamentary majority for by preventing parliament from having a chance to vote against it. This would be an obvious abuse of the procedure, and it's good that this loophole is closed.
I know some people have been saying that without the FTPA the WA would have passed or TMay's government fallen because TMay would have made the WA a matter of confidence, but I think this is pretty obviously wrong: The DUP would have voted against her if she'd tried it, and she'd have known that, so she wouldn't have tried it.
LOL, we want to fund a 3rd runway for London like we want a hole in the head and given Tories hide in the back of blacked out range rovers and never see a member of the public one can only imagine the well wishers are the 13 brown noser MPs and the Colonel
+1 - given a choice between flying via London or via Schiphol give me Schiphol any day...
Terminal 4 at Heathrow, yes. Terminal 5 at Heathrow, absolutely not.
And I can get there in 45 minutes from where I live.
Terminal 5 is superb for British Airways business.
LOL, we want to fund a 3rd runway for London like we want a hole in the head and given Tories hide in the back of blacked out range rovers and never see a member of the public one can only imagine the well wishers are the 13 brown noser MPs and the Colonel
+1 - given a choice between flying via London or via Schiphol give me Schiphol any day...
Good interview on Radio Scotland this morning with David Milliband. Came across very well and sounded just like the kind of sensible , thoughtful politician we needed rather than the bunch of dross we currently have. That banana and his brother have a lot to answer for.
If he could not beat his brother under the system they had then theres no reason to think the signs he might have been ok would prove true. If you cannot get past the first hurdle it's not impressive to describe how well youd make it over the other hurdles.
A lot of hot air. Boris will win regardless of what he does because the Tory selectorate are prepared to sacrifice the economy the Union and the party to secure thebrexit. They no longer have any idea what thebrexit actually is, does, or delivers, but they voted for it and they are going to have it.
Boris has pledged to leave on Halloween. So he will win. It does not matter that he has no plan as to how he will do that - not to a selectorate who don't care. They know we can leave with no deal. That will do. So no explanation is needed and frankly Hunt will make hi self look like a fool if he starts trying to distract and obstruct by asking how.
Boris. A snap election. No deal.
The Tory electorate don't care about the consequences of No Deal because they are largely too old/too well off. In short they don't expect to be personally inconvenienced by it
Comments
What shall we do to celebrate?
"Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk” watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful” could jump ship to bring him down."
Here's hoping.
He was dreadful at the hustings apparently.
That is also reflected in the hypothetical polling with a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour and winning back more Brexit Party voters than it loses to the LDs and a Hunt led Tories trailing Labour by 3% (as opposed to trailing by 2% now under May) as it loses even more voters to the Brexit Party without winning any voters from the LDs to compensate
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1142688688729546752
A Comres poll of Tory councillors today taken yesterday has Boris ahead of Hunt 61% to 39%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Eu8E21_efk
Boris's opening speech is here. It's not too bad, but typically heavy on convoluted vocabulary and light on insight or logic. It does suggest a plan forming in his mind to get Brexit done (somehow) and then pivot to the centre.
https://preview.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnsons-speech-at-tory-hustings-event-in-birmingham/vi-AADgFvT
"We had the pleasure of one Conservative leader - Ian Duncan Smith as the "Quiet Man" and I invite Boris Johnson to become the "Mute Man".
Boris Johnson indicated a reply in sign language with two adjoining digits of his right hand thrust forcefully in the air. However Mr. Johnson's campaign team is said to favour the idea for the next four weeks.
I doubt they can be shaken from their faith now, but they will be a very unhappy and disillusioned mob by the end of the autumn if not sooner.
Is the ‘unite to win” hunt slogan deliberately in Tory and TBL Ltd blue. Are they the only people who need to unite? Oh sorry were talking about the party not the country
Boris would also remove the temporary Customs Union for GB May imposed but Barnier did not require, all Barnier required for the WA and transition period was the NI backstop.
Boris will shift to that once he wins the leadership and has a majority
Boris has pledged to leave on Halloween. So he will win. It does not matter that he has no plan as to how he will do that - not to a selectorate who don't care. They know we can leave with no deal. That will do. So no explanation is needed and frankly Hunt will make hi self look like a fool if he starts trying to distract and obstruct by asking how.
Boris. A snap election. No deal.
This won’t end well.
Rory was at least interesting.
Hunt is dull , Boris is a clown.
The only views that matter will be those of Tory party members, most of whom will cast their votes in the next 3 weeks.
Remember a LD policy is to make coalition government normal (like in many European countries) and the PM being allowed to call an election with no notice given to the coalition partner is not conducive to coalitions.
Con 21.9%, Lab 25.1%, LD 18.1%, Brex 22.1%, Grn 6.9%
Con 116
Lab 250
LD 65
Brex 147
Grn 1
PC 2
SNP 51
NI 18
Lab 76 short of overall majority.
Although the detail will be wrong, I think the overall shape is instructive.
Both the Tory and Lab vote is being severely reduced by the Brexit party and LibDems (and Greens). But the Tories are much more damaged in terms of seats.
I guess that is something to do with the more even spread of the Leave vote and the vagaries of FPTP.
Despite Hyufd blind loyalty to Boris I fear it is all downhill for him after yesterdays first husting and with 15 more to come. That is one every two days for the next month and I expect to see Boris lose his much deminishing mojo completely by the end of the process
The polling, so much Hyufd's bible, is going to be very interesting over the next few weeks
What exactly are they offering that BXP are not? Other than fear of Corbyn they have no appeal left, and that's not enough.
I'd be looking at keeping Tory candidates on the next PM market on side like Philip Hammond, David Lidington or even Ken Clarke. If you want real GoT psycho-drama, Jo Johnson. A Labour equivalent might be someone respected like Hilary Benn.
Some are still available in the 1000s, like those who aren't even MPs such as David Cameron, which is remarkable.
And as we pointed out at the time, time has a habit of destroying such items..
Boris, meanwhile, should adopt my plan of a massively extended transition period bought from the EU by ditching May's red lines on FOM and safeguarding EU citizens in Britain (and actually Boris is already moving this way) and bought from Ireland and the DUP by its allowing time to develop technological solutions to the Irish border problem. So Boris can still leave on halloween but not fall straight into WTO terms.
And the ERG, whilst not holding all the votes, are the ones who blew it up and provided cover for others to vote against it.
The main thing it's doing right now if it's doing anything is preventing the PM from pulling shenanigans on parliament where they do something that there isn't a parliamentary majority for by preventing parliament from having a chance to vote against it. This would be an obvious abuse of the procedure, and it's good that this loophole is closed.
I know some people have been saying that without the FTPA the WA would have passed or TMay's government fallen because TMay would have made the WA a matter of confidence, but I think this is pretty obviously wrong: The DUP would have voted against her if she'd tried it, and she'd have known that, so she wouldn't have tried it.
And I can get there in 45 minutes from where I live.
Terminal 5 is superb for British Airways business.