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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streath

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    It takes two to tango.

    If the EU refuses to give us a decent deal then what are we supposed to do?

    If the EU says you can Brexit and we can give you a trade deal but you must sign up that you will follow our laws in full, you won't get a say in them and there is no way out of this agreement then are we just supposed to sign that?

    If they said you can exit but instead of paying £9bn per annum we now want you to pay £18bn are we just supposed to sign that?

    The answer is: you make a decision and you deal with it. You either say "no" (and accept that certain things are going to be difficult, some long-term, and some like the Irish border difficult to solve) or you say "yes" (and accept that they will want some oversight and rule-making ability).

    What we should not do, and what we have been doing for several years now, is constructing fantasy deals in our heads, complaining when we fail to make the EU obey our fantasies, then blame them for our failure. Witness that fuckwit (Steve Thingy?) saying "Well, if the EU choose 'no deal'", and other remarks from others indicating refuge in fantasy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:


    Priti Patel would be my worse nightmare. She seems genuinely, errr, thick.

    My (retired teacher) mum lives in her constituency and says that she tries jolly hard, which I think is a euphemism for what you just said.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Any evidence for that?

    No, I just pulled those numbers out of my arse, obviously, since pollsters have not yet established a rigorous definition of "basically a libdem".
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Pretty sure Hancock will support Javid, they're both Osborne's former allies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited June 2019
    Chuka's best chance could be to go for a by-election. The danger at a General, particularly with Boris in charge is two party polarisation with Labour benefitting.
    Holding Streatham in a GE will be tough even as a Lib Dem.
    Full disclosure, I'm on Labour at 6-4 for £20.10 and although I'm not unhappy now about being knocked back from the £50 I asked for, I still think that is very fair value. Most people in a GE simply don't pay attention to the candidate.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D

    Priti Patel would be my worse nightmare. She seems genuinely, errr, thick.
    Agreed. She was on the latest Pienaar’s Politics podcast, batting for Boris, and I was left open-mouthed with how stupid she was. Spouting a load of nonsense about 31 October (which admittedly is common just now), but also coping very poorly with the obvious drugs questions which all journalists are asking. Totally unprepared, but arrogant in that haughty fashion Tories excel at. Not a flicker of thought, wit or sharpness.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    kjohnw said:

    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

    British voters:
    25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
    20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
    55% Basically LibDems
    British voters:
    25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
    20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
    5% Basically LibDems
    50% Mushy mixture
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.

    It takes two to tango.

    If the EU refuses to give us a decent deal then what are we supposed to do?

    If the EU says you can Brexit and we can give you a trade deal but you must sign up that you will follow our laws in full, you won't get a say in them and there is no way out of this agreement then are we just supposed to sign that?

    If they said you can exit but instead of paying £9bn per annum we now want you to pay £18bn are we just supposed to sign that?
    Welcome to the world of power politics where the stronger party imposes its will on the weaker party if it has something which the latter wants. What you describe are known as trade offs. They were pointed out to the Brexiteers both before and after the referendum result. They chose to sack those who did the pointing out and have had a prolonged tantrum ever since at the fact that Britain does not get its way. They have resorted instead to living in a fantasy world and, judging by what the likely candidates for leadership are saying, are still in that fantasy world.

    As a result at some point soon the brutal realities of power politics will be felt by this country.

    We could do without a FTA with the EU but this will likely have serious economic consequences for the country. Is that what people wanted? Or was it for a deal which could be signed in an afternoon?

    It’s too much to expect I suppose for a party seemingly intent on electing a habitual liar as leader to be honest with the voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Chuka's best chance could be to go for a by-election. The danger at a General, particularly with Boris in charge is two party polarisation with Labour benefitting.
    Holding Streatham in a GE will be tough even as a Lib Dem.
    Full disclosure, I'm on Labour at 6-4 for £20.10 and although I'm not unhappy now about being knocked back from the £50 I asked for, I still think that is very fair value. Most people in a GE simply don't pay attention to the candidate.

    Yougov has Labour and the LDs both on 22% each v Boris with the Tories on 29% and the LDs won Streatham of course in the EU Parliament elections as part of Lambeth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tory leadership rivals discuss alliance to stop Boris Johnson

    Decision on ‘consolidation’ imminent after former foreign secretary’s crushing victory"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/tory-leadership-rivals-discuss-alliance-to-stop-boris-johnson

    The article suggests Hancock may back either Javid or Gove, Hunt is seen as 'too establishment' and backing Stewart 'too humiliating' apparently
    If he supports Gove it could be a game changer.
    Gove would likely come second next week then yes, if he back a Javid though and McVey and Leadsom back Raab then Javid and Raab could overtake Hunt and Gove
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