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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streath
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streatham at the next GE
This was Chuka's result in Streatham at GE2017. Will be able to defend that as an LD. The seat had just about the biggest remain vote at the referendum. pic.twitter.com/XpGgdVwzL8
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I hope he prospers in the Lib Dems (and we can forget the embarrassment of the CUKs). The next leader of the LDs after Swinson. Maybe the first LD PM in 100 years, in two elections' time.
CHUKA ON THE LIB DEMS
“You can’t change the status quo if you’re going to rejoin it. So there are going to be no mergers, we are not going to join the Liberal Democrats. We are saying there needs to be a new offer, a new alternative . . . Because the status quo is broken.”
February 18, 2019 — at a press conference for the launch of the Independent Group
“The Liberal Democrats are trying to bury their recent past as the enablers of Tory austerity, but working people will not forget or forgive the damage they did in government and what it is still doing to our communities.”
25 April 2017 — comment piece in The Independent
“What the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives have done to our public services since 2010 and the cuts to support for those on low incomes, the disabled and others in need is unforgivable. Whatever common ground Labour may have with them on Brexit, we cannot ignore this.”
23 April 2017 — Facebook post
“The Lib Dems should admit the truth: they have broken their promises and backed the Tories all the way. Over and over again, they have said one thing and done another; that’s why nobody believes a word Nick Clegg and Vince Cable say.” 16 September 2013 — after Mr Cable’s Glasgow conference speech
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chuka-umunna-won-t-be-the-last-to-switch-sides-claims-vince-cable-c23zf6k7d
I do hope he is bringing some really helpful renaming suggestions with him.
Nice bloke, interesting thoughts, and I'd like to hear what he thinks in the future whatever banner he happens to be standing under.
I think it is excellent news.
LDs do seem to be a gateway drug.
https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1139281323091214336
https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1139281618089197568
AKA William Pitt the Younger.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/sep/03/homophobia-and-high-office
Lab - > TIG -> Change UK -> Whatever he was called last week -> LDs
It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?
Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.
I'm guessing 'not very'.
Do you have any evidence he is not attracted to men?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_loans_in_the_United_Kingdom#Introduction_of_tuition_fees
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” December 2016 interview with the Standard
Iran - small scale niggly attacks on shipping... really? Why?
I think quite highly of the Iranian people, and think quite ill of their government. Nonetheless this makes no sense.
Donald Trump 2015.
Her advice for us all, to match her long long life?
Never Drink In The Day.
The truest words I have heard all week. Hemingway would do two bottles of white at lunch, and he shot himself aged 62. Point proven.
In this day and age the rest of this discussion isn’t edifying, or important.
If it's soon, and Corbyn is seen as a Leaver, and Streatham really is as opposed to Brexit as the Referendum suggested...
Then you could see him hold it. We'll see, I guess.
Now for Wollaston and Allen to move over aswell which I think would be very likely .
If the rumours are also true about Phillip Lee and if Brecon and Radnor goes to recall, with a likely LibDem gain then the Cons majority even with DUP will be 1.
I don't think there's any way Boris will try to continue under those circumstances. He would be at the beck and call of any whim on his backbenches and he is a very divisive figure. Remember, nearly 2/3rds of his MPs didn't back him today.
I think we are nailed on for a 2019 General Election. I don't even think it will be via a VONC. Boris will just go for it under a Brexit mandate. He's risky and arrogant enough. Corbyn will be delighted to take him on. That may be foolhardy.
LibDems may come out of this very very well.
I'm guessing 'very'.
Not convinced about Boris cutting and running unless he absolutely has to.
What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.
Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.
Sounds quite plausible to me.
While the Lib Dems were 35,000 votes behind in 2017, they were an order of magnitude closer in 2010 and the Lib Dems won Lambeth comfortably at the Euro-elections. That's not to say it'd be easy but it's certainly something to work with.
He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.
Plus there is the whole remain aspect.
Problem is the Owen Jones brigade will view him as a bigger scalp than even Boris or IDS. No doubt the momentum kids will be dispatched.
I can't see any other path now except a General Election this autumn
European elections result for Lambeth (containing Streatham)
LDs 33%
Labour 22%
Greens 21%
Brexit Party 8%
CUK 8%
Tories 4%
https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=173&RPID=37314769
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374
This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.
Boris Johnson, last Tory PM for a decade or more* and shortest serving PM in over a hundred years?
*that would not actually be that humiliating - the Tories have been in power 9 years, that's not a bad run, and followed by being out for a decade is not that unusual.
Assuming Boris calls a general election within a year YouGov had a Boris led Tories on 29% with the LDs and Labour tied on 22% each, that would be an ideal result for Chuka, Swinson or Davey get neck and neck with Labour but not enough to win power and he can then take over for the final push
WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.
He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.
Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.
He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
Not that it’s anyone’s business, but my husband lives in Cumbria and votes there. I mostly live in London and vote here. I am not a second home owner. I own one property only: my home. When I finally move permanently to Cumbria, luck and builders permitting, I will vote there.
Something to be gained in a drip feed of defections? Takes a bit of news focus away from the Tories
Whilst I raised this emerging situation on here a bit back before the first shipping attacks and I wouldn't yet absolutely rule out someone being clever in provocation, the concept of walks like duck, quacks like a duck stands as sound.
The interdiction of such attacks however, may not need aircraft carriers or destroyers, it may just need some blokes mooching around the docks.
If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
Apparently the Welsh hate Boris so much they will declare UDI.
It's so flailingly ludicrous.
Though Labour probably are happier if the focus is on the Tories than the LDs.