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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streath

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    Yes, he is running for leader once Swinson and Corbyn have lost the next general election to Boris.

    Chuka for PM 2024? You may as well start printing the badges and booking the website domain address now
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Off topic. In the photo above, is Chuka saying "I wouldn't wear that tie, Vince. @byronic will think you are gay?"
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    Yes, he is running for leader once Swinson and Corbyn have lost the next general election to Boris.

    Chuka for PM 2024? You may as well start printing the badges and booking the website domain address now
    My guess is Chuka will be back in the Labour party by then.

    What happened to the last Labour MP who defected to the LibDems?

    Paul Marsden recrossed the floor and went back to Labour.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    slade said:

    Rumour that there are two Lib Dem gains in Broxtowe.

    https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1139298128933400578
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    Lol. Suggest you read Tim Shipmans books or Dom Cummings blog diaries.

    And were put you vigorously supporting May 2 months ago ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
    He could pick up most of Leadsom and McVey's votes.
    i am curious - who actually voted for mcvey?
    Her declared supporters were Ben Bradley, Philip Davies, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Gary Streeter. She also got 3 mystery votes.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    slade said:

    Rumour that there are two Lib Dem gains in Broxtowe.

    Confirmed - 20% increase in the LD vote.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
    Clearly there are. Just very, very few of them.

    Emma Barnett on Newsnight gave the Hunt surrogate a pretty brutal going over, and Gauke a fairly hard time, too. She is good.
    Emma Barnett is getting a very good reputation as an interviewer.

    She surprised a few politicians when she was on Women’s Hour a couple of years ago, they thought they were going to get a “This Morning” sofa interview and didn’t realise she was a serious journalist who did her research and had difficult questions. Spent a decade at the Telegraph.
    She is excellent. Her R5L show is worth a listen. You never get the impression that she has an agenda to push, nor is it apparent where her personal sympathies lie. She doesn't have the cynicism of a Paxman either, and can disarm, by complimenting a politician for being honest, or giving a good answer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    Yes, he is running for leader once Swinson and Corbyn have lost the next general election to Boris.

    Chuka for PM 2024? You may as well start printing the badges and booking the website domain address now
    My guess is Chuka will be back in the Labour party by then.

    What happened to the last Labour MP who defected to the LibDems?

    Paul Marsden recrossed the floor and went back to Labour.
    No, I think Labour is now too far gone in the Corbynite direction, we may well be heading for the LDs overtaking Labour at the next general election as the main party of the centre left, certainly in voteshare and unless Corbyn commits to EUref2.

    The Tories have likely avoided being overtaken as the main party of the right by the Brexit Party by contrast by in all likelihood picking Boris as their next leader
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    Lol. Suggest you read Tim Shipmans books or Dom Cummings blog diaries.

    And were put you vigorously supporting May 2 months ago ?
    Dom Cummings knew how vital it was to have Boris rather than Farage fronting the Leave campaign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Nonetheless Livingstone won London twice, Boris was the only Tory to beat him
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Exactly.

    Boris was pro-EU, was pro-immigration, pro-the City when he was London Mayor.

    Now he’s against the first, has thrown in his lot with people who hate foreigners and immigrants and is adopting policies which will harm London and one of biggest earning sectors.

    And yet @HYUFD thinks that those who voted for him then will stick with him now when he’s turned into Trump’s Mini-Me.

    I don’t think so, sunshine. We have a Lib Dem alternative now in the capital.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Barnesian said:
    Yet again though a swing from Labour to the Tories, even if LD vote again also up
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
    He could pick up most of Leadsom and McVey's votes.
    i am curious - who actually voted for mcvey?
    The obvious answer would be her, her proposer, her seconder and her 6 other signatories. Who knows with the Tory MP rounds, it may even be the right answer!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    Yes, he is running for leader once Swinson and Corbyn have lost the next general election to Boris.

    Chuka for PM 2024? You may as well start printing the badges and booking the website domain address now
    My guess is Chuka will be back in the Labour party by then.

    What happened to the last Labour MP who defected to the LibDems?

    Paul Marsden recrossed the floor and went back to Labour.
    No, I think Labour is now too far gone in the Corbynite direction, we may well be heading for the LDs overtaking Labour at the next general election as the main party of the centre left, certainly in voteshare and unless Corbyn commits to EUref2.

    The Tories have likely avoided being overtaken as the main party of the right by the Brexit Party by contrast by in all likelihood picking Boris as their next leader
    Barnesian said:
    That Boris effect was short-lived.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    David Starkey says Rory Stewart ideally suited to be PM on This Week unlike the 2 LD leadership campaign nonentities and Corbyn who could 'barely muster 2 Es at A Level and barely read a book since' and Boris who has only written a bad book on Churchill unlike Stewart who really could be Churchill. The only problem is Starkey says he is not really a Tory
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2019
    Starkey on form on This Week.

    “If Rory was on the right side on Brexit he would be the right leader for the Tories”

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Nonetheless Livingstone won London twice, Boris was the only Tory to beat him
    Only just. And mainly because of Livingstone’s repulsiveness, certainly by the second election, when Ken had started down the path of Jew-baiting and siding with Islamist extremists.

    Would Boris have won against a better Labour candidate? I doubt it.

    Too many Tories are believing in what they would like to be true rather than looking with a cold eye at the facts, both in relation to Boris and Brexit and, doubtless, much else besides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Exactly.

    Boris was pro-EU, was pro-immigration, pro-the City when he was London Mayor.

    Now he’s against the first, has thrown in his lot with people who hate foreigners and immigrants and is adopting policies which will harm London and one of biggest earning sectors.

    And yet @HYUFD thinks that those who voted for him then will stick with him now when he’s turned into Trump’s Mini-Me.

    I don’t think so, sunshine. We have a Lib Dem alternative now in the capital.
    Boris is still pro City as his tax cut policy showed and is not as hardline on immigration as some Leavers, in any case he can win a UK general election and lose London. Indeed when he fronted the Leave campaign he won the UK while losing London
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    David Starkey says Rory Stewart ideally suited to be PM on This Week unlike the 2 LD leadership campaign nonentities and Corbyn who could 'barely muster 2 Es at A Level and barely read a book since' and Boris who has only written a bad book on Churchill unlike Stewart who really could be Churchill. The only problem is Starkey says he is not really a Tory

    Neither was Churchill. Really a Tory that is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
    Clearly there are. Just very, very few of them.

    Emma Barnett on Newsnight gave the Hunt surrogate a pretty brutal going over, and Gauke a fairly hard time, too. She is good.
    Emma Barnett is getting a very good reputation as an interviewer.

    She surprised a few politicians when she was on Women’s Hour a couple of years ago, they thought they were going to get a “This Morning” sofa interview and didn’t realise she was a serious journalist who did her research and had difficult questions. Spent a decade at the Telegraph.
    She is excellent. Her R5L show is worth a listen. You never get the impression that she has an agenda to push, nor is it apparent where her personal sympathies lie. She doesn't have the cynicism of a Paxman either, and can disarm, by complimenting a politician for being honest, or giving a good answer.
    Given the antics of the Lobby journalists this week, thinking it hilarious to ask candidates for party leader about animals or ramping their preferred candidate, it’s very refreshing to see that some journalists can do the job properly. Quite young too, only about 35. Hopefully we’ll see an increased profile for her, as the likes of Andrew Neil move to retirement.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Nonetheless Livingstone won London twice, Boris was the only Tory to beat him
    Livingstone wasn't a bad Mayor first time up, but he lost the plot and the job with it.

    Boris was of course very well suited to London at the time - pro-Europe, pro-business, pro-immigration. Now of course he's fuck-Europe, fuck-business and fuck immigrants.

    You are welcome to him.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
    Clearly there are. Just very, very few of them.

    Emma Barnett on Newsnight gave the Hunt surrogate a pretty brutal going over, and Gauke a fairly hard time, too. She is good.
    Emma Barnett is getting a very good reputation as an interviewer.

    She surprised a few politicians when she was on Women’s Hour a couple of years ago, they thought they were going to get a “This Morning” sofa interview and didn’t realise she was a serious journalist who did her research and had difficult questions. Spent a decade at the Telegraph.
    She is excellent. Her R5L show is worth a listen. You never get the impression that she has an agenda to push, nor is it apparent where her personal sympathies lie. She doesn't have the cynicism of a Paxman either, and can disarm, by complimenting a politician for being honest, or giving a good answer.
    I agree , I’ve been hugely impressed with her and she would have been great doing QT .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TGOHF said:

    Starkey on form on This Week.

    “If Rory was on the right side on Brexit he would be the right leader for the Tories”

    He wants to get it done, doesn’t he?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    David Starkey says Rory Stewart ideally suited to be PM on This Week unlike the 2 LD leadership campaign nonentities and Corbyn who could 'barely muster 2 Es at A Level and barely read a book since' and Boris who has only written a bad book on Churchill unlike Stewart who really could be Churchill. The only problem is Starkey says he is not really a Tory

    Neither was Churchill. Really a Tory that is.
    Indeed, he was in the Liberals in the early 1900s. Neither was Thatcher really but a Gladstonian Liberal. Indeed many of the best Tory and Labour PMs are not really identified too closely with their party eg Blair was more a liberal than an Old Labour socialist too
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is anyone surprised by the situation in Hong Kong? I never thought China could be trusted to stick to their promise not to interfere for 50 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Nonetheless Livingstone won London twice, Boris was the only Tory to beat him
    Only just. And mainly because of Livingstone’s repulsiveness, certainly by the second election, when Ken had started down the path of Jew-baiting and siding with Islamist extremists.

    Would Boris have won against a better Labour candidate? I doubt it.

    Too many Tories are believing in what they would like to be true rather than looking with a cold eye at the facts, both in relation to Boris and Brexit and, doubtless, much else besides.
    Livingstone for all his faults was a better Mayor than Khan is proving to be
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Starkey on form on This Week.

    “If Rory was on the right side on Brexit he would be the right leader for the Tories”

    He wants to get it done, doesn’t he?
    Yes, but wanting to Brexit is not proof of Brexit purity to the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    TGOHF said:

    Starkey on form on This Week.

    “If Rory was on the right side on Brexit he would be the right leader for the Tories”

    He’s obviously not going to win the contest this time, where the delivery of Brexit is the key issue, but he’s done his chances of being next-but-one leader a whole lot of good.

    Assuming we don’t get another contest this year, I’d say that Rory and Penny are favourites to win the leadership from the next generation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    AndyJS said:

    Is anyone surprised by the situation in Hong Kong? I never thought China could be trusted to stick to their promise not to interfere for 50 years.

    Nope!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    Is anyone surprised by the situation in Hong Kong? I never thought China could be trusted to stick to their promise not to interfere for 50 years.

    China has an increasingly nationalist leadership and Hong Kong was its main beacon of capitalism and democracy, Beijing though seems to want state managed capitalism or 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' and authoritarian government
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:
    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Exactly.

    Boris was pro-EU, was pro-immigration, pro-the City when he was London Mayor.

    Now he’s against the first, has thrown in his lot with people who hate foreigners and immigrants and is adopting policies which will harm London and one of biggest earning sectors.

    And yet @HYUFD thinks that those who voted for him then will stick with him now when he’s turned into Trump’s Mini-Me.

    I don’t think so, sunshine. We have a Lib Dem alternative now in the capital.
    Boris is still pro City as his tax cut policy showed and is not as hardline on immigration as some Leavers, in any case he can win a UK general election and lose London. Indeed when he fronted the Leave campaign he won the UK while losing London
    Oh give me a fucking break, please! He is not pro-City. Pulling out of the Single Market is one of those policies which will certainly damage the City, which will lose euro clearing, for a start. It will mean that the City will be subject to EU rules in order to have access to its market but have no say in those rules, a humiliating and dangerous position for Europe’s biggest financial centre to be in. A No Deal Brexit risks instability in financial markets. And it puts Britain’s financial centre in a weaker position vis a vis its competitors, not just the EU but the US and Asia.

    And you think that a few tax cuts will counter that. Get real.

    Still, your consistent reaction is always to say we don’t need those votes. Keep doing that and you’ll find one day you won’t have any more votes to lose.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Nonetheless Livingstone won London twice, Boris was the only Tory to beat him
    Only just. And mainly because of Livingstone’s repulsiveness, certainly by the second election, when Ken had started down the path of Jew-baiting and siding with Islamist extremists.

    Would Boris have won against a better Labour candidate? I doubt it.

    Too many Tories are believing in what they would like to be true rather than looking with a cold eye at the facts, both in relation to Boris and Brexit and, doubtless, much else besides.
    Exactly . They keep bringing up London but he beat a poor candidate and he was seen as a Liberal conservative then . Even I didn’t mind Bozo when he was mayor of London . The mask has fallen now though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Portillo says it is not that politics lacks brains but spines
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    dixiedean said:
    That Boris effect was short-lived.

    The Stapleford Alliance was IIRC in effect a LibDem splinter group. Stapleford SE is normally LibDem, so this result is pretty much no change.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    The Sun getting its facts wrong but I don't suppose anyone will care much.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9291187/matt-hancock-drop-out-tory-leadership-race/

    "MATT Hancock was considering dropping out of the race for PM after winning finishing second from bottom in the first round of voting."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    The Sun getting its facts wrong but I don't suppose anyone will care much.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9291187/matt-hancock-drop-out-tory-leadership-race/

    "MATT Hancock was considering dropping out of the race for PM after winning finishing second from bottom in the first round of voting."

    Second from bottom of those not eliminated.

    Makes it extremely unlikely he will get any further. If he doesn't drop out I think he will he bottom next time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:
    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
    I have voted Conservative twice in my life. One of these occasions was for Boris.

    It had nothing to do with his message on crime, nor his views on Europe. It had everything to do with his opponent being Ken Livingstone.
    Exactly.

    Boris was pro-EU, was pro-immigration, pro-the City when he was London Mayor.

    Now he’s against the first, has thrown in his lot with people who hate foreigners and immigrants and is adopting policies which will harm London and one of biggest earning sectors.

    And yet @HYUFD thinks that those who voted for him then will stick with him now when he’s turned into Trump’s Mini-Me.

    I don’t think so, sunshine. We have a Lib Dem alternative now in the capital.
    Boris is still pro City as his tax cut policy showed and is not as hardline on immigration as some Leavers, idon
    Oh give me a fucking break, please! He is not pro-City. Pulling out of the Single Market is one of those policies which will certainly damage the City, which will lose euro clearing, for a start. It will mean that the City will be subject to EU rules in order to have access to its market but have no say in those rules, a humiliating and dangerous position for Europe’s biggest financial centre to be in. A No Deal Brexit risks instability in financial markets. And it puts Britain’s financial centre in a weaker position vis a vis its competitors, not just the EU but the US and Asia.

    And you think that a few tax cuts will counter that. Get real.

    Still, your consistent reaction is always to say we don’t need those votes. Keep doing that and you’ll find one day you won’t have any more votes to lose.
    As opposed to you refusing to accept the Leave vote and refusing to accept it meant getting back control of our laws from the ECJ and our borders.

    The City is also more concerned about Corbynism than it is about Brexit, even hard Brexit
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mark Harper really was famous for 15 minutes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    The Stapleford Alliance was IIRC in effect a LibDem splinter group. Stapleford SE is normally LibDem, so this result is pretty much no change.

    Still a Labour to Tory swing though
  • Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    The Labour Rory Stewart
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Mark Harper really was famous for 15 minutes.

    Was he really?

    Mark who?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    Yes but only after Swinson and Corbyn lose the next general election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    Too late to stand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    Mark Harper really was famous for 15 minutes.

    That is stretching it a bit, at least the average Love Island contender is recognised for that 15 minutes
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    There's £496 available at 1.1 on Boris being one of the two people to advance to the membership stage - £49 of free money if you have £490 to spare till next Tuesday, I'd think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Portillo says it is not that politics lacks brains but spines

    Its both, depending on the person. Someone having spine is no good if they show it on something brainless. It's like praising someone as principled, when their principles might be awful.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    Sexual: someone under-age. Or details of some sex/drugs orgy, possibly with a theme, especially if there are pictures or very recent or in the office.

    Financial: where money for his campaign is coming from eg Russia. Or accepting a bribe for pushing a project, say.

    Some revolting association or really unguarded comment eg an after-dinner speech at some really repellent far-right organisation.

    Something along those lines is not, I think, priced in and might change the narrative.

    I should stress I am purely speculating. I am NOT remotely suggesting that there is anything of the kind to come out.

    But some sort of scandal like this is way beyond the normal adulterous bastard picture, which people might shrug off, and could derail even an otherwise popular candidate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    The Labour Rory Stewart
    A lot of people on Twitter agree with me!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    The Labour Rory Stewart
    IF. They could get her and Rory, along with Ruth Davidson, Watson, Burnham and a number of other big beasts, there is a potential Centrist landslide. We are still light years from it though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting how Rory supporters are spinning 19 votes as carrying more weight than the 70 votes that went to Raab, Javid and Hancock.

    Especially when it seems half his votes seem to have come from the Grieve/Gauke we will VONC our own party Remainer caucus. Which is not especially large. Not sure were more should come from.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    Nominations are closed. However, an alternative leader, should momentum stall, is not hard to discern.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    He would be, but nominations have closed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019

    There's £496 available at 1.1 on Boris being one of the two people to advance to the membership stage - £49 of free money if you have £490 to spare till next Tuesday, I'd think.

    A lot of money to risk on Boris not making a fool of himself between now and the next rounds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    She was 48 on Tuesday.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    True...


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    The Labour Rory Stewart
    IF. They could get her and Rory, along with Ruth Davidson, Watson, Burnham and a number of other big beasts, there is a potential Centrist landslide. We are still light years from it though.
    Any evidence for that? We don't seem to have a bell curve in British politics at the moment. More of a u shaped parabola. The two extremes have a lot of people in them and the centre has been hollowed out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    I think his switch might have been useful to the LibDems if he'd gone straight away. The detour via ChUK and the split in that prompts mild amusement rather than anything else.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    Wasn't Gove's cocaine experiences published in a biography of him a year or two ago?

    Perhaps the ultimate, non-politician, example is the Catholic Church Child Abuse Scandal. The accusations and evidence were in the public domain for years. For some reason some of the reporting finally triggered something and it became a huge story with huge awareness.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    Oh give me a fucking break, please! He is not pro-City. Pulling out of the Single Market is one of those policies which will certainly damage the City, which will lose euro clearing, for a start. It will mean that the City will be subject to EU rules in order to have access to its market but have no say in those rules, a humiliating and dangerous position for Europe’s biggest financial centre to be in. A No Deal Brexit risks instability in financial markets. And it puts Britain’s financial centre in a weaker position vis a vis its competitors, not just the EU but the US and Asia.

    And you think that a few tax cuts will counter that. Get real.

    Still, your consistent reaction is always to say we don’t need those votes. Keep doing that and you’ll find one day you won’t have any more votes to lose.
    As opposed to you refusing to accept the Leave vote and refusing to accept it meant getting back control of our laws from the ECJ and our borders.

    The City is also more concerned about Corbynism than it is about Brexit, even hard Brexit
    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Cyclefree said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    Sexual: someone under-age. Or details of some sex/drugs orgy, possibly with a theme, especially if there are pictures or very recent or in the office.

    Financial: where money for his campaign is coming from eg Russia. Or accepting a bribe for pushing a project, say.

    Some revolting association or really unguarded comment eg an after-dinner speech at some really repellent far-right organisation.

    Something along those lines is not, I think, priced in and might change the narrative.

    I should stress I am purely speculating. I am NOT remotely suggesting that there is anything of the kind to come out.

    But some sort of scandal like this is way beyond the normal adulterous bastard picture, which people might shrug off, and could derail even an otherwise popular candidate.
    It’s possible someone has something more on this story:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2361999/Boris-Johnsons-friend-Darius-Guppy-admits-horrifying-attack-journalist-insulted-wife.html
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Is Umunna standing for the LibDems leadership? After the Orange Book coup, this would really upset those few supporters who stayed around for Clegg.

    I think his switch might have been useful to the LibDems if he'd gone straight away. The detour via ChUK and the split in that prompts mild amusement rather than anything else.
    Ironically, having the joined the party after 7 June, he doesn't even get a vote at the members ballot stage.

    In any case, he's wisely said in his joining interview that he's a fan of both and won't be taking sides. I imagine he's closer to Swinson given Davey's stated views of the TIG MPs, but he's smart enough to keep it to himself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    Oh give me a fucking break, please, not je.
    As opposed to you refusing to accept the Leave vote and refusing to accept it meant getting back control of our laws from the ECJ and our borders.

    The City is also more concerned about Corbynism than it is about Brexit, even hard Brexit
    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.
    No, not implementing Brexit makes Corbyn more likely as it splits the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and Tories.

    Implementing Brexit tough splits the Remain vote between Labour and the LDs and makes a Corbyn premiership less likely, especially the longer he holds out against EUref2.

    Trade deals are negotiations, some give, some take but it will be us doing the negotiating, already trade deals are near concluded with Switzerland, Australia, South Korea etc on reasonably fair terms.

    On mandates YouGov has 52% of Leavers saying staying in the Customs Union and Single Market would be a bad result from Brexit only 13% good, Remainers by contrast say it would be good by 28% to 20%


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
    Taking cocaine in the office or on foreign trips might or giving it to friends etc.

    Again, hypothetical speculation about what might be beyond what we are used to.

    Personally I thought his mis-speaking about the Ratcliffe lady in Iran and his petulant refusal to apologise was the pits. He may well have contributed to that poor woman suffering even more time in prison and her child’s increasing separation from her mother. Unforgivable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo backs Boris on This Week and says he hopes he wins a landslide

    Good heavens Liz Kendall looks cute on tonight’s show
    The Labour Rory Stewart
    IF. They could get her and Rory, along with Ruth Davidson, Watson, Burnham and a number of other big beasts, there is a potential Centrist landslide. We are still light years from it though.
    Any evidence for that? We don't seem to have a bell curve in British politics at the moment. More of a u shaped parabola. The two extremes have a lot of people in them and the centre has been hollowed out.
    Not really any evidence. My comment was more in agreement with your analysis. IF a large number of things fell exactly right, so the "Centre" became so broad and all- encompassingly woolly that it covered 40% of the electorate, and isolated the Left and Right on 30% each, then a landslide was,possible. But, as I said, we are light years away.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    INSA:

    Greens 26.5%
    Union 24%
    AfD 13.5%
    SPD 13%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 7.5%
    Others 6.5%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    Oh give me a fucking break, please, not je.
    As opposed to you refusing to accept the Leave vote and refusing to accept it meant getting back control of our laws from the ECJ and our borders.

    The City is also more concerned about Corbynism than it is about Brexit, even hard Brexit
    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.
    No, not implementing Brexit makes Corbyn more likely as it splits the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and Tories.

    Implementing Brexit tough splits the Remain vote between Labour and the LDs and makes a Corbyn premiership less likely, especially the longer he holds out against EUref2.

    Trade deals are negotiations, some give, some take but it will in the Customs Union and Single Market would be a bad result from Brexit only 13% good, Remainers by contrast say it would be good by 28% to 20%


    YouGov also has 39% of British voters thinking immigration has been a net benefit to their country, tied with the USA and compared to just 18% in Germany and 17% in France and 21% in Finland. Only 37% of British voters think immigration has been a net negative to their country compared to 53% in Germany and 51% in Finland and 47% in France

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/13/whats-impact-immigration-according-europeans-and-a
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.
    No, not implementing Brexit makes Corbyn more likely as it splits the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and Tories.

    Implementing Brexit tough splits the Remain vote between Labour and the LDs and makes a Corbyn premiership less likely, especially the longer he holds out against EUref2.

    Trade deals are negotiations, some give, some take but it will be us doing the negotiating, already trade deals are near concluded with Switzerland, Australia, South Korea etc on reasonably fair terms.

    On mandates YouGov has 52% of Leavers saying staying in the Customs Union and Single Market would be a bad result from Brexit only 13% good, Remainers by contrast say it would be good by 28% to 20%


    Go on holding onto your dreams. We all need them. Reality will bite soon enough. Goodnight.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    Oh give me a fucking break, please, not je.
    As opposed to you refusing to accept the Leave vote and refusing to accept it meant getting back control of our laws from the ECJ and our borders.

    The City is also more concerned about Corbynism than it is about Brexit, even hard Brexit
    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.
    No, not implementing Brexit makes Corbyn more likely as it splits the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and Tories.

    Implementing Brexit tough splits the Remain vote between Labour and the LDs and makes a Corbyn premiership less likely, especially the longer he holds out against EUref2.

    Trade deals are negotiations, some give, some take but rms.

    On mandates YouGov has 52% of Leavers saying staying in the Customs Union and Single Market would be a bad result from Brexit only 13% good, Remainers by contrast say it would be good by 28% to 20%


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/11/brits-oppose-proroguing-parliament-force-through-n
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited June 2019
    Well Portillo seems to have finally gotten over his 11 year sulk at Boris becoming London Mayor rather than him as he was a full frontaled Johnsonite on This Week tonight.

    Maybe a seat of the Lords is on its way ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    INSA:

    Greens 26.5%
    Union 24%
    AfD 13.5%
    SPD 13%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 7.5%
    Others 6.5%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The SPD now trailing the AfD as well as the Greens and CDU
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Scott_P said:

    True...


    Steve Bell sure can draw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
    Taking cocaine in the office or on foreign trips might or giving it to friends etc.

    Again, hypothetical speculation about what might be beyond what we are used to.

    Personally I thought his mis-speaking about the Ratcliffe lady in Iran and his petulant refusal to apologise was the pits. He may well have contributed to that poor woman suffering even more time in prison and her child’s increasing separation from her mother. Unforgivable.
    It was the Iranian Government that jailed that mother and they and they alone are to blame, trying to blame Boris really is ridiculous, indeed I would say outrageous
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited June 2019
    kjohnw said:

    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

    British voters:
    25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
    20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
    55% Basically LibDems
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    INSA:

    Greens 26.5%
    Union 24%
    AfD 13.5%
    SPD 13%
    FDP 9%
    Linke 7.5%
    Others 6.5%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The SPD now trailing the AfD as well as the Greens and CDU
    It's not just one pollster. The polling average on the German Wikipedia page is as follows:

    Greens 26.1%
    Union 25.9%
    SPD 12.7%
    AfD 12.4%
    FDP 8.2%
    Linke 7.4%
    Others 7.5%

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_20._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen#Mittelwerte_der_jeweils_aktuellen_Umfrage_aller_Institute
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    .

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
    Taking cocaine in the office or on foreign trips might or giving it to friends etc.

    Again, hypothetical speculation about what might be beyond what we are used to.

    Personally I thought his mis-speaking about the Ratcliffe lady in Iran and his petulant refusal to apologise was the pits. He may well have contributed to that poor woman suffering even more time in prison and her child’s increasing separation from her mother. Unforgivable.
    It was the Iranian Government that jailed that mother and they and they alone are to blame, trying to blame Boris really is ridiculous, indeed I would say outrageous
    The Iranian lady is a dual Irani citizen, under international law there isn’t anything that can be done by the British government to get her back.

    Much more concerning is the case of Matthew Hedges.

    He eventually got deported back to the U.K. thanks to Jeremy Hunt’s personal intervention.

    The story is that he was arrested for spying, but the U.K. foreign office under Boris was so disfunctional that it failed to follow the usual protocols that exist to identify spies - so the UAE govt sent him for trial rather than simply deporting him, and that process had to be allowed to play through the courts here.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/courts/british-spying-trial-matthew-hedges-sentenced-to-life-in-jail-by-abu-dhabi-court-1.794267
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kjohnw said:

    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

    Will that be the moment Dominic Grieve, etc, jump ship?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    kjohnw said:

    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

    British voters:
    25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
    20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
    55% Basically LibDems
    Fair enough, the problem is some on PB want 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs (plus of course it depends on the issue on crime, immigration etc voters tend to take a harder line then the LDs and they also back renationalising the railways etc unlike the LDs)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    .

    What exactly could come out that isn't priced in? Anything sexual is already being priced in, he's minted so unlikely to be financial, everyone already trusts him about as far as they can throw him - seriously what is there left to come?
    There’s plenty of stories that, while in the public domain and well known among politics geeks, haven’t yet been on the front pages and seen a wider audience. I also imagine that someone has something new on him for this Sunday’s papers.

    As was suggested on here earlier, start by asking him when he last look cocaine, how many children does he support financially, and when did he last see his daughter born in 2009?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
    Taking cocaine in the office or on foreign trips might or giving it to friends etc.

    Again, hypothetical speculation about what might be beyond what we are used to.

    Personally I thought his mis-speaking about the Ratcliffe lady in Iran and his petulant refusal to apologise was the pits. He may well have contributed to that poor woman suffering even more time in prison and her child’s increasing separation from her mother. Unforgivable.
    It was the Iranian Government that jailed that mother and they and they alone are to blame, trying to blame Boris really is ridiculous, indeed I would say outrageous
    The Iranian lady is a dual Irani citizen, under international law there isn’t anything that can be done by the British government to get her back.

    Much more concerning is the case of Matthew Hedges.

    He eventually got deported back to the U.K. thanks to Jeremy Hunt’s personal intervention.

    The story is that he was arrested for spying, but the U.K. foreign office under Boris was so disfunctional that it failed to follow the usual protocols that exist to identify spies - so the UAE govt sent him for trial rather than simply deporting him, and that process had to be allowed to play through the courts here.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/courts/british-spying-trial-matthew-hedges-sentenced-to-life-in-jail-by-abu-dhabi-court-1.794267
    The sad thing is there's another similar case:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/13/iranian-woman-working-british-council-jailed-spying-uk/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    theProle said:

    Y0kel said:

    .

    ?
    ?
    It is all priced in, everyone knows Boris has masses of skeletons, his supporters don't care, his opponents already dislike him. It would take something seriously criminal to derail him and taking drugs for his own use does not fall in that category even if illegal
    Taking cocaine in the office or on foreign trips might or giving it to friends etc.

    Again, hypothetical speculation about what might be beyond what we are used to.

    Personally I thought his mis-speaking about the Ratcliffe lady in Iran and his petulant refusal to apologise was the pits. He may well have contributed to that poor woman suffering even more time in prison and her child’s increasing separation from her mother. Unforgivable.
    It was the Iranian Government that jailed that mother and they and they alone are to blame, trying to blame Boris really is ridiculous, indeed I would say outrageous
    The Iranian lady is a dual Irani citizen, under international law there isn’t anything that can be done by the British government to get her back.

    Much more concerning is the case of Matthew Hedges.

    He eventually got deported back to the U.K. thanks to Jeremy Hunt’s personal intervention.

    The story is that he was arrested for spying, but the U.K. foreign office under Boris was so disfunctional that it failed to follow the usual protocols that exist to identify spies - so the UAE govt sent him for trial rather than simply deporting him, and that process had to be allowed to play through the courts here.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/courts/british-spying-trial-matthew-hedges-sentenced-to-life-in-jail-by-abu-dhabi-court-1.794267
    The sad thing is there's another similar case:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/05/13/iranian-woman-working-british-council-jailed-spying-uk/
    That’s the other way around though, she’s an Iranian woman who once lived in the U.K. who’s now being charged in Iran with being a British spy. Not a British problem.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    "Tory leadership rivals discuss alliance to stop Boris Johnson

    Decision on ‘consolidation’ imminent after former foreign secretary’s crushing victory"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/tory-leadership-rivals-discuss-alliance-to-stop-boris-johnson
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kjohnw said:

    Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

    British voters:
    25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
    20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
    55% Basically LibDems
    Any evidence for that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    "Tory leadership rivals discuss alliance to stop Boris Johnson

    Decision on ‘consolidation’ imminent after former foreign secretary’s crushing victory"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/tory-leadership-rivals-discuss-alliance-to-stop-boris-johnson

    The article suggests Hancock may back either Javid or Gove, Hunt is seen as 'too establishment' and backing Stewart 'too humiliating' apparently
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Once again you misrepresent me. I have consistently said that I would be OK with leaving with a deal. It is No Deal I am against because that was not the basis on which the referendum was won and so it has no mandate.

    I am also much more realistic than you about how much effective control over its laws Britain will actually regain in practice. It will not regain control of its laws or borders when it has to do what other countries will demand in order to get these blessed FTAs. Google the US trade tribunals to see how much control of our laws a trade agreement with the US will give us. It’s a big fat round number - zero. Or look at what India demanded in return for a trade agreement: more immigration to Britain.

    Brexit, especially a No Deal Brexit, both makes Corbyn more likely and makes it easier for him to inflict harmful policies on Britain.

    Brexiteers like you are Corbyn’s little helpers, his useful idiots. If/when he comes to power one of the few things to look forward to is Tories getting the heeby jeebies at him implementing policies which they will have helped enable and wondering why there is no ECJ to protect them or stop him.

    It takes two to tango.

    If the EU refuses to give us a decent deal then what are we supposed to do?

    If the EU says you can Brexit and we can give you a trade deal but you must sign up that you will follow our laws in full, you won't get a say in them and there is no way out of this agreement then are we just supposed to sign that?

    If they said you can exit but instead of paying £9bn per annum we now want you to pay £18bn are we just supposed to sign that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    GIN1138 said:

    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D

    Priti Patel would be my worse nightmare. She seems genuinely, errr, thick.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tory leadership rivals discuss alliance to stop Boris Johnson

    Decision on ‘consolidation’ imminent after former foreign secretary’s crushing victory"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/13/tory-leadership-rivals-discuss-alliance-to-stop-boris-johnson

    The article suggests Hancock may back either Javid or Gove, Hunt is seen as 'too establishment' and backing Stewart 'too humiliating' apparently
    If he supports Gove it could be a game changer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D

    No that would be Andrea Jenkyns in.
This discussion has been closed.