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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streath

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Omnium said:

    o/t

    Iran - small scale niggly attacks on shipping... really? Why?

    I think quite highly of the Iranian people, and think quite ill of their government. Nonetheless this makes no sense.

    False Flag?
    Well - according to at least one regime figure - it's those pesky jews.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    If Streatham votes the same way as it did in the European Parliament elections then Chuka will hold Streatham.

    European elections result for Lambeth (containing Streatham)

    LDs 33%
    Labour 22%
    Greens 21%
    Brexit Party 8%
    CUK 8%
    Tories 4%


    https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=173&RPID=37314769

    A Westminster election is a different beast. Peterborough was only last week.
    Was it really? Things move fast.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but it’s properly kicking off in the sandpit: Iran attacking two oil tankers in the Gulf. :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374

    This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.

    Those rockets injured a bunch of people.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.

    Bracknell would be an easy regain
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TGOHF said:

    The Chicken Boris tag is beginning to stick.

    He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.

    And being on telly is meant to be his strongest suit. Perhaps this is on Gavin's advice (but who wants to be governed by someone who takes advice from Gavin?)
    I think it’s not that he’s a coward (though he may be) but more that he’s arrogant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Byronic said:

    All of Question Time is now discussing Boris.

    Apparently the Welsh hate Boris so much they will declare UDI.

    It's so flailingly ludicrous.

    Villiers doing a crap job of defending his tax policy. Why dont Boris’s MP henchpersons support his policies ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Hancock withdrawing, plus the three candidates eliminated means that there are now 50 MPs up for grabs who backed one of the candidates no longer in the race.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Hancock out at 680. He's gone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited June 2019
    September election now 10 on Betfair, in from 15 yesterday.

    I don’t see how Boris has a majority in the Commons.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but it’s properly kicking off in the sandpit: Iran attacking two oil tankers in the Gulf. :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374

    This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.

    Those rockets injured a bunch of people.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28500/yemens-houthi-rebels-are-now-striking-saudi-arabia-with-cruise-missiles
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Streatham votes the same way as it did in the European Parliament elections then Chuka will hold Streatham.

    European elections result for Lambeth (containing Streatham)

    LDs 33%
    Labour 22%
    Greens 21%
    Brexit Party 8%
    CUK 8%
    Tories 4%


    https://moderngov.lambeth.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=173&RPID=37314769

    A Westminster election is a different beast. Peterborough was only last week.
    Was it really? Things move fast.
    The Brexit Party were just 800 votes from winning Peterborough last week and Chuka starts as the incumbent MP
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    kle4 said:

    If I had said Rory would be 3rd fav a month ago, you would have laughed and asked me if I was on the opium.

    I don't see how he makes it past the next round. There's not many new votes going, some of whom are bound to go to the top tier and some of who were backing the hardest leaver candidate in the race, and how many switchers from other candidates are we really expecting, even if Hancock pulls out? MPs are not likely to switch en masse even if he puts in a barnstorming performance in any debate.
    My MP backed Hancock according to the Wikipedia list. I'm tempted to email him and suggest that Rory would be worth a vote, although given he'll probably on the deselection target list before long I expect he has other things on his mind. I could suggest it might persuade me to vote Tory again if he were leader, but given the safety of the seat that would hardly be a persuasive argument.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Fiona Bruce gives guests too much leeway to rant.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    I've accused Boris of being a "lying, two faced, adulterous bastard", I have said (on here, today) they he is not my choice, that he will quite probably be a disaster, that in an ideal world I would far prefer Rory Stewart to be leader (and I would). If these are the words of a "fan", in your eyes, then I hope you don't get any "enemies".

    But we are where we are. Brexit has to be delivered to save our democracy. Boris might just do it. In the absence of any feasible alternatives.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    This offers interesting detail on events today

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28504/at-least-one-oil-tanker-is-on-fire-in-the-sea-of-oman-reports

    Including stating that one ship was attacked twice 3 hours apart.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Sean_F said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
    Bracknell would be an easy regain

    It’s pretty close there . It was 53/47 for Leave. He hasn’t got much to lose now though as he won’t be the Tory candidate at the next GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TGOHF said:

    The Chicken Boris tag is beginning to stick.

    He’s more yellow than the contents of Jo Swinsons wardrobe.

    And being on telly is meant to be his strongest suit. Perhaps this is on Gavin's advice (but who wants to be governed by someone who takes advice from Gavin?)
    I think it’s not that he’s a coward (though he may be) but more that he’s arrogant.
    The man who had his outriders saying it would be an outrage if the rules were not changed to put more than 2 candidates to the members, when there was a concern he might not make it to the final 2, arrogant? Surely not.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
    Bracknell would be an easy regain
    It’s pretty close there . It was 53/47 for Leave. He hasn’t got much to lose now though as he won’t be the Tory candidate at the next GE.

    Sure, he's burned his bridges with his association.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but it’s properly kicking off in the sandpit: Iran attacking two oil tankers in the Gulf. :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374

    This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.

    I think about this tweet a lot given Trump's habit of accusing others of the thing he does

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/141604554855825408?s=19
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    No way, the members will demand a vote this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    There are a few Tories of my acquaintance who have for some time been incensed at the idea the members might not be consulted, furious it did not happen last time, and who also happen to be big Boris fans. I am eagerly waiting to see if their anger at the idea of the members not being consulted alters in any way now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but it’s properly kicking off in the sandpit: Iran attacking two oil tankers in the Gulf. :open_mouth:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48630374

    This after the Iranian rebels in Yemen sent a couple of rockets over the border into a Saudi airfield yesterday.

    I think about this tweet a lot given Trump's habit of accusing others of the thing he does

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/141604554855825408?s=19
    Trump told his base 'no more wars in places with sand' basically. Will even he go back on that?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    I live in a safe seat, I don't have to choose either and don't have to worry about sharing in the blame if they are awful. One reason I voted Tory in 2017 despite them being expected to win and definitely winning in my area, was so I could not avoid blame for things if they turned out badly, given I had been clear I thought Corbyn should be opposed. This time I won't care. Millions of people will rapturously vote for Corbyn or Boris either way.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Not sure he would have made the offer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    There doesn't seem to be a single Tory party anymore.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    I've accused Boris of being a "lying, two faced, adulterous bastard", I have said (on here, today) they he is not my choice, that he will quite probably be a disaster, that in an ideal world I would far prefer Rory Stewart to be leader (and I would). If these are the words of a "fan", in your eyes, then I hope you don't get any "enemies".

    But we are where we are. Brexit has to be delivered to save our democracy. Boris might just do it. In the absence of any feasible alternatives.
    I agree, Boris is best chance for the Tories to win the next election
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    There are a few Tories of my acquaintance who have for some time been incensed at the idea the members might not be consulted, furious it did not happen last time, and who also happen to be big Boris fans. I am eagerly waiting to see if their anger at the idea of the members not being consulted alters in any way now.
    "I demand the right to be part of the landslide"!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    That is a false choice, other parties are available...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    That is a false choice, other parties are available...
    Change UK?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Isn't that a bit like saying he won't sleep with Taylor Swift?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He would not get a chance anyway, he is a guaranteed Boris sacking along with Hammond, Clark and Liddington
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Mark Reckless speaking on QT now especially for TSE
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Stewart is now ahead of Gove in the betting stakes.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Fagin and the Artful Dodger?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Hardly surprising . I’m beginning to think that this leadership contest under the guise of a leader that can unite the party is going to end up with Bozo who will be such a hostage to the ERG that all out war is going to happen in the party .
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    Why the hold up with other likely defectors? How long does it take to see if the LDs will push aside any local candidates to allow you to fight the seat in their colours?

    Patience, Mr Kle4, patience!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    That is a false choice, other parties are available...
    Not really. One of them is the BXP led by Farage, with literally zero policies (and some deeply troubling connections, on both wings). The other is the LDs which want to actively revoke A50, which I think would rip the democratic fabric into pieces. Catastrophe.

    Given these choices, between a spoonful of shit (Boris), a cup of shit (LDs), a tankard of shit (BXP), and a vat of shit (Corbyn), I go for Boris, leading the Tories. Wince, grimace, hold your nose, and swallow the spoonful.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
    Bracknell would be an easy regain
    It’s pretty close there . It was 53/47 for Leave. He hasn’t got much to lose now though as he won’t be the Tory candidate at the next GE.
    Sure, he's burned his bridges with his association.

    54/46 to Leave and 55% Conservative in 2017 with the LDs nowhere. Maybe Vince can persuade him to stand in Wokingham against Redwood :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    PClipp said:

    kle4 said:

    Why the hold up with other likely defectors? How long does it take to see if the LDs will push aside any local candidates to allow you to fight the seat in their colours?

    Patience, Mr Kle4, patience!
    I'm an instant gratification kind of political junkie. You'd think I'd be more susceptible the charms of Boris and the 'it's all easy peasy' brigade.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:

    Y0kel said:

    Persian Gulf tensions

    It seems remarkable that there is very little information on how exactly someone actually attacked the tankers today. If it is limpet mines, which is suggested, where exactly did these mines turn up?

    Its there that you can source and interdict the attacks.

    False flag?
    It does all have more than a whiff of Gulf of Tonkin...
    “Not much evidence” says Mark Urban on Newsnight. I agree with him.

    Of course it’s entirely possible that Iran is responsible, but it’s hardly slam dunk. And there is the cui bono question.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    He'll pull out by Sunday IMO.
    Needs to inform the 1922 by tomorrow by current rules.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Hardly surprising . I’m beginning to think that this leadership contest under the guise of a leader that can unite the party is going to end up with Bozo who will be such a hostage to the ERG that all out war is going to happen in the party .
    The Tory ultra Remainers may defect to the LDs but as Chuka's move tonight confirms they are already defecting from Labour to the LDs anyway
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    Stewart is now ahead of Gove in the betting stakes.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963

    Glad I topped up earlier.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Hardly surprising . I’m beginning to think that this leadership contest under the guise of a leader that can unite the party is going to end up with Bozo who will be such a hostage to the ERG that all out war is going to happen in the party .
    I don't know about all out war but all these flaky ex-Cabinet ministers knocking around on the backbenches makes an Autumn election all the more likely IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Fair play to the good people of the UK Parliament site, they have already updated
    https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/chuka-umunna/4128
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    GIN1138 said:

    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D

    No, that would be Reckless defecting back to the Tories from the Brexit Party and joining a Boris Cabinet which I would not rule out either
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Mauve said:



    54/46 to Leave and 55% Conservative in 2017 with the LDs nowhere. Maybe Vince can persuade him to stand in Wokingham against Redwood :D

    Do the LDs really care?

    I mean, I can see for the current Parliamentary battle, it is useful for the LibDems to have more MPs.

    But, after this Parliament is dissolved, do the LibDems care much about whether Lee (or Chuka) survive?

    A defecting MP is for Christmas, not for life.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    TGOHF said:

    Villiers doing a crap job of defending his tax policy. Why dont Boris’s MP henchpersons support his policies ?

    It is TBF not easy to defend the indefensible.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Trump told his base 'no more wars in places with sand' basically. Will even he go back on that?

    If he needs it to get re-elected, sure.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Rory Stewart definitely won’t pull out . He’s the only one ruling out no deal and he might pick up some more votes .

    The 18 who supported him are clearly now the rock solid anti no dealers . I think he’ll do well in the Channel 4 debate and won’t miss that opportunity to throw a few more barbs at Bozo .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited June 2019
    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
    Bracknell would be an easy regain
    It’s pretty close there . It was 53/47 for Leave. He hasn’t got much to lose now though as he won’t be the Tory candidate at the next GE.
    Sure, he's burned his bridges with his association.
    54/46 to Leave and 55% Conservative in 2017 with the LDs nowhere. Maybe Vince can persuade him to stand in Wokingham against Redwood :D
    LOL. Yes you’d have to go a long way from Bracknell to find an LD winnable seat. Guildford maybe?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    Hardly surprising . I’m beginning to think that this leadership contest under the guise of a leader that can unite the party is going to end up with Bozo who will be such a hostage to the ERG that all out war is going to happen in the party .
    Yep. If it is unity they are after it isn't Boris for sure. Did mention at the time hearing Pauline Latham, a big Esther cheerleader. She ruled out 3 as "unsuitable". The obvious, for one from the Right, was Rory.
    The other 2'were Raab and Boris. Quite frankly the most obvious places for her to transfer to.
    Do wonder if Bozza will be transfer friendly. Hence the urgency to shorten the process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    Rory Stewart definitely won’t pull out . He’s the only one ruling out no deal and he might pick up some more votes .

    The 18 who supported him are clearly now the rock solid anti no dealers . I think he’ll do well in the Channel 4 debate and won’t miss that opportunity to throw a few more barbs at Bozo .

    Indeed, I could see Hancock endorsing Stewart tomorrow, though the likelihood is he will back Hunt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nico67 said:

    Rory Stewart definitely won’t pull out . He’s the only one ruling out no deal and he might pick up some more votes .

    The 18 who supported him are clearly now the rock solid anti no dealers . I think he’ll do well in the Channel 4 debate and won’t miss that opportunity to throw a few more barbs at Bozo .

    The problem for Rory is he won't pick up many votes from Leadsom and McVey. He might get a few from Harper, and also from Hancock if he pulls out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:
    There is an irony that the most pro-european party has been rescued from deep slumber by european elections that no other party wanted (except Greens/SNP).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kinabalu said:

    TGOHF said:

    Villiers doing a crap job of defending his tax policy. Why dont Boris’s MP henchpersons support his policies ?

    It is TBF not easy to defend the indefensible.
    A poll of Boris’s supporting MPs on this policy would be enlightening ..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
    Most of McVey and Leadsom's supporters will go to Raab
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Rory Stewart definitely won’t pull out . He’s the only one ruling out no deal and he might pick up some more votes .

    The 18 who supported him are clearly now the rock solid anti no dealers . I think he’ll do well in the Channel 4 debate and won’t miss that opportunity to throw a few more barbs at Bozo .

    Indeed, I could see Hancock endorsing Stewart tomorrow, though the likelihood is he will back Hunt
    rory has the big mo, none of the other non-boris candidates do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    He was crap in the referendum debates on tv - no wonder Gavin has told him to hide behind the sofa.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    That is a false choice, other parties are available...
    To form a government?

    Not so
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Hammond, Rory and Gauke out.

    Priti, Francois and JRM in.

    Will BE TSEs worst nightmare :D

    No, that would be Reckless defecting back to the Tories from the Brexit Party and joining a Boris Cabinet which I would not rule out either
    He’s not an MP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
    He could pick up most of Leadsom and McVey's votes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1139294980755939328

    Translation: We are worried how a series of night after night hustings with baying crowds of Blue Momentum whackos chanting 'WTO' and yobs shouting at journalists, will look to the rest of the country if we go the full distance on the leadership election.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    TGOHF said:
    I think that is a Con gain from Lincolnshire Independent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting how Rory supporters are spinning 19 votes as carrying more weight than the 70 votes that went to Raab, Javid and Hancock.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Most likely Tuesday's ballot will be a run-off between Stewart and Raab.

    Raab’s done. No chance.
    He could pick up most of Leadsom and McVey's votes.
    i am curious - who actually voted for mcvey?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    Sandpit said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mauve said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    I'm not sure why Philip Lee actually stood for the Conservatives in 2017, if Brexit was intolerable to him.
    If Philip Lee joins the Lib Dems he'll need to find a more winnable seat. He wouldn't stand a chance in Bracknell. It's not like they aren't keen on Brexit down there.
    Bracknell would be an easy regain
    It’s pretty close there . It was 53/47 for Leave. He hasn’t got much to lose now though as he won’t be the Tory candidate at the next GE.
    Sure, he's burned his bridges with his association.
    54/46 to Leave and 55% Conservative in 2017 with the LDs nowhere. Maybe Vince can persuade him to stand in Wokingham against Redwood :D
    LOL. Yes you’d have to go a long way from Bracknell to find an LD winnable seat. Guildford maybe?
    Yes, Sue Doughty won it for the LDs in 2001. Ann Milton won it back for the Conservatives in 2005 and has held it ever since.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Y0kel said:

    Tory Leadership:

    What if Boris Johnson's support amongst MPs has actually pretty much topped out in this first round and his numbers don't rise much in subsequent rounds? Sure he will be one of the two going forward but thats not exactly a supine bunch at Westminster that he will have to deal with.

    Part of me is counting down to some kind of revelation about him doing the rounds soon. Contrary to Matthew Parris' observation about everything being baked in regarding Johnson, there is always the possibility of something.

    From what I understand, every skeleton in Boris's cupboard has now done a modest dance around the bedroom. His womanising is priced in. Likewise his sometimes unreliable relationship with the truth.

    WYSIWYG. Boris is a lying, two faced, adulterous bastard with a ruthless streak.

    He is ALSO a genuinely funny. charming, optimistic politician, with - somehow - the common touch.

    Right now I think people are desperate for any ray of sunshine. If Boris is it? What the hell. Take it.

    He might well be a disaster. Indeed, probably. But I can see why he will appeal.
    SeanT was also a Boris fan if I recall, could be just coincidence of course Byronic 'I can't believe he's not SeanT'
    Boris an amoral sociopathic snake, and would quite likely win an election, IMHO.
    Yep, that's pretty much my view.

    And given the choice of an amoral, sociopathic snake - alias Boris Johnson - and Jeremy "Hezbollah, Hamas, IRA, Press TV, Al Qaeda" Corbyn, which would you choose?

    Exactly.
    That is a false choice, other parties are available...
    To form a government?

    Not so
    To hold the balance of power with the SNP, and to moderate the nutters running the two major parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Cyclefree said:

    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
    Clearly there are. Just very, very few of them.

    Emma Barnett on Newsnight gave the Hunt surrogate a pretty brutal going over, and Gauke a fairly hard time, too. She is good.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Is Chukka running for leader?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    The interesting figure here is Javid. There was a sense he under-performed today. But. He had a well-received, if overshadowed launch, and has held high office for a while. Very few seem to actively dislike him, and he doesn't have many obvious negatives. He may be the transfer friendly candidate who could move through the midfield.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TGOHF said:
    Boris effect already started? 7.5% swing from Labour to the Tories there
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Twickenham will likely be free next time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    He is an AM and could run as an MP again at the next general election
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    No, nominations closed last week.

    A seconder would also be required, and he would not get many, if any, members votes at present
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Jonathan said:

    Is Chukka running for leader?

    No, nominations have closed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    He was crap in the referendum debates on tv - no wonder Gavin has told him to hide behind the sofa.
    No he wasn't, Boris was cheered to the rafters

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXuvsShIDjo
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Rumour that there are two Lib Dem gains in Broxtowe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TGOHF said:

    dixiedean said:

    AIUI, Boris has been asked precisely 6 questions during this campaign. Failed to answer any of them.
    OK that's enough scrutiny folks...
    How does “Election Winner Boris” expect to get through a GE hidden away May style ?
    Or even do PMQs.

    He won't Boris was front and centre of 2 Mayoral elections and the referendum campaign as the Leave frontman and answered plenty of Ministerial Questions in the Commons as Foreign Secretary
    Your faith in those two Mayoral elections when his policies and political positioning were the complete opposite of what they are now is touching, if deluded.

    He was poor at answering questions at City Hall and not particularly good in the Commons either.

    His team’s reason for not exposing him to scrutiny - that he might say something stupid or reveal himself to be an arse - unwittingly reveals a critical weakness reinforcing peoples’ doubts about his fitness for office.
    They weren't, Boris won in the suburbs and with a tough on crime message, not the Remain central inner city.

    Boris is probably the best campaigner in British politics today, if he had not been fronting the Leave campaign Remain would likely have won
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Yeah: a coronation went so well last time.
    GIN1138 said:

    Gauke on Newsnight saying he won't serve in a Boris cabinet.

    He’s also making the point that those Tories talking about proroguing Parliament are making it easier for Corbyn to take such a step to push through an unpopular / extremist policy and impossible for them to criticise him.

    Is there anyone in the Tories capable of thinking more than 5 minutes ahead?
    Clearly there are. Just very, very few of them.

    Emma Barnett on Newsnight gave the Hunt surrogate a pretty brutal going over, and Gauke a fairly hard time, too. She is good.
    Emma Barnett is getting a very good reputation as an interviewer.

    She surprised a few politicians when she was on Women’s Hour a couple of years ago, they thought they were going to get a “This Morning” sofa interview and didn’t realise she was a serious journalist who did her research and had difficult questions. Spent a decade at the Telegraph.
This discussion has been closed.