Yes, at least officially. He's not made much of an impact it would be fair to say.
He's still 'Below the Clinton Line', which is my test for candidate officially running but who Betfair considers less likely to be nominated than Hillary Clinton.
Yet to hit the 65k donor qualification for the debates. While he might scrape in anyway, it’s pretty well over for him.
> Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
And Gauke who, if not heavyweight, is one of the better Cabinet Ministers.
I think we will see, with the votes Rory gets, how many sensible pragmatic realistic Tories there are left in the party. I am not holding my breath.
And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder. > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
Definitely heavy in the case of Soames, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays.
More seriously, contrary to the spin coming from the right after the public poll, to achieve comparable results with other back candidates and go from about 0-60 in one week in terms of public recognition, bodes well for him for the future.
> Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
Like most remaining Scotch LDs Swinson probably has Unionism has her defining political identity, hence the endless Sturgeonating. Since she seems to live mainly in England, it's rather odd that she hasn't caught up with the Union being quite far down the list of priorities for most English folk.
Born and bred and lives in Bath TUD , though claims to be from Glasgow.
> > Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
>
> >
>
> > She is jealous of the attention Davidson gets and so is aping her, two attention seeking single policy useless twerps.
>
>
>
> SNP'er complaining about single policy......
>
> You don't see the SNP bleating every day about independence, Tories and Lib Dems manage that as they are fixated. SNP are getting on with trying to save the country from the ravages of the Westminster cartel. Add limp Labour, given SNP just keep on getting more popular after more than 12 years in power,and it easy to see why the unionists are suffering panic attacks. With little pip squeaks like Javid and clowns like Swinson saying they won't allow a vote, it is plain to see independence is inevitable.
>
> PS: I AM NOT A MEMBER OF THE SNP. I support independence for Scotland and have no party affiliations.
In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last.
So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder. > > > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening? > > Definitely heavy in the case of one, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays.
Thought it was the other way round? Soames looks positively gaunt nowadays (cue 'like being fallen on by a small cupboard with its key in' jokes),
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @WhisperingOracle said: > > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder. > > > > > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening? > > > > Definitely heavy in the case of one, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays. > > > Thought it was the other way round? Soames looks positively gaunt nowadays (cue 'like being fallen on by a small cupboard with its key in' jokes),
Ah - maybe they've both lost weight nowadays. Good for them.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder. > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
Are you referring to Soames as a physical heavyweight or a political heavyweight ?
> @HYUFD said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England. > > > > > > > > > > She is jealous of the attention Davidson gets and so is aping her, two attention seeking single policy useless twerps. > > > > > > > > SNP'er complaining about single policy...... > > > > You don't see the SNP bleating every day about independence, Tories and Lib Dems manage that as they are fixated. SNP are getting on with trying to save the country from the ravages of the Westminster cartel. Add limp Labour, given SNP just keep on getting more popular after more than 12 years in power,and it easy to see why the unionists are suffering panic attacks. With little pip squeaks like Javid and clowns like Swinson saying they won't allow a vote, it is plain to see independence is inevitable. > > > > PS: I AM NOT A MEMBER OF THE SNP. I support independence for Scotland and have no party affiliations. > > In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last. > > So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
I believe the SNP polled 37% in 2017 and barely bettered that in the EU elections with 37.7%. I agree with your main point though, and would add that the 37.7% will have included a protest vote element which in most of GB was directed to the Brexit Party, the LibDems & the Greens. I have long held the view that the SNP is unlikely to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election and see nothing from the EU results to make me revise that view.
> @HYUFD said: > In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last. > > So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
The type of person that directly compares one type of election with another is also the sort that compares movements between polls from different companies and guddles about looking for significance in one-off sub samples.
> @rottenborough said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > Sam Gyimah has thrown his hat into the ring. That ring is beginning to resemble a milliner’s. > > 1922 needs to stop this now. Tories were a laughing stock already, but this is crazy. > > I guess Jezza and Trump are partly to blame. The idea that someone who everyone thinks has no hope at the outset goes on to win.
In fairness to Sam Gyimah he has a different policy position, in that he wants a fresh referendum. It doesn’t look like a winning prospectus in this contest but at least he’s airing it.
It’s the raft of Leavers with indistinguishable programmes that baffle me in this contest.
> @rottenborough said: > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
Fox was on Broadcasting House on R4 this am doing the paper review. I was hoping her now being an elected member meant that she wouldn't be popping up constantly as a R4 rentagob, but no..
With so many candidates and more entering by the day, surely we must change the rules of the leadership contest so that it simply reads "Royal Rumble".
James Cleverly elected leader after Rory Stewart manages to clothesline Sam Gyimah over the top rope but takes himself out as a screaming Ester McVey claws at him from the floor having herself just been double eliminated with Penny Moudaunt
> @Cyclefree said: > > And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit. > > For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
Every chance that Solomon will be standing I would have thought. Few days to go yet till the cut off.
> @MrsB said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Andrea Leadsom on Marr says she will talk to all parties but rules out a formal alliance > > > > I really don't know why we push people to confirm their post-election stances so early, given how much is unknown. At this stage we could have different leaders of Con/Lab/LD by the next election, we have no idea what their Brexit stance would be or what compromise stance they might be willing to accept. And we have no idea what the balance of MPs in the Commons would be. So how can anyone rule out almost anything? > > not quite true. I think we can be fairly confident of the Brexit stance of the Leader of the Lib Dems. Whether it's Jo or Ed. > None of the many candidates in the Tory contest comes anywhere close to either of them as regards competence or coherence.
Even there, we know they'd want a second referendum but we don't know what option(s) they'd demand/accept. Obviously they'd want Remain on there, but Jo Swinson said in a hustings this week she doesn't think No Deal is a responsible option to put to the people. So would she accept it in return for a second vote, or is that a red line for her? Truth is we don't know, so how can Leadsom or anyone else say whether they could make a deal with her?
Javid says he wants to avoid No Deal but has rejected all the current enablers of a deal: a second referendum, an extension past October and by implication the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form. So No Deal isn't just something that might happen by unavoidable default. It is a realistic outcome thanks to Javid's red lines. So how does he square that with previous claims that No Deal would be disaster, when it might be one of his own making?
How is this cretin a respected politician? Can remainers just say any damn thing that comes into their otherwise empty heads about leaving the EU without the WA these days? 'No deal would be like fiery death followed by being pecked in the eyes by geese, followed by a bad case of the clap' as all the other morons clap along in rapturous agreement.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit. > > > > For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead. > > Every chance that Solomon will be standing I would have thought. Few days to go yet till the cut off.
----------------- More likely that Noddy will stand and Solomon will give it a miss.
> @rottenborough said: > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
> > And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
> >
> > For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
>
> Every chance that Solomon will be standing I would have thought. Few days to go yet till the cut off.
-----------------
More likely that Noddy will stand and Solomon will give it a miss.
Most likely the members elect Noddy and Solomon gets no confidenced by his constituency association.
Rory has proved beyond doubt that May was wrong to waste him for so long. An interesting, intelligent and personable Tory. They are not exactly thick on the ground. I hope whoever wins (and it won’t be him)makes much more use of his talents
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1135132911378870272 > > > > How is this cretin a respected politician? Can remainers just say any damn thing that comes into their otherwise empty heads about leaving the EU without the WA these days? 'No deal would be like fiery death followed by being pecked in the eyes by geese, followed by a bad case of the clap' as all the other morons clap along in rapturous agreement.
To be honest they were never known for their intelligence and wisdom in the first place. Brexit has just tipped them over the edge.
However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
> Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
Like most remaining Scotch LDs Swinson probably has Unionism has her defining political identity, hence the endless Sturgeonating. Since she seems to live mainly in England, it's rather odd that she hasn't caught up with the Union being quite far down the list of priorities for most English folk.
Born and bred and lives in Bath TUD , though claims to be from Glasgow.
Bit like Wings over Scotland. The fair city of Bath is becoming a real home away from home.
> In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last.
>
> So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
The type of person that directly compares one type of election with another is also the sort that compares movements between polls from different companies and guddles about looking for significance in one-off sub samples.
That's you, that is.
HYFUD and Justin are two cheeks of the same arse , blinkered and try to use dodgy stats to big up their respective viewpoints. There are none so blind as those that will not see.
With 13 candidates already, what is the over/under for topping the ballot in the first round? I reckon they may struggle to reach 50. Around 15% that is. Makes it very hard to call any kind of front runner. Also, who do folk reckon for last place? My guess is Malthouse.
Another loser fixated on Indyref2, these clowns are so predictable. If only they were so diligent on Brexit. PS: Typical southerner , has nosebleed in Scotland and makes up imaginary places. Brigadoon here we come.
> @MaxPB said: > So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
He’s going to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement by demanding a Brexit that works for the people of Waterloo, as well as Waterlooville.
> Bit like Wings over Scotland. The fair city of Bath is becoming a real home away from home.
Wasn't aware that Wings was born and bred in Bath, or claims to be from Glasgow. Is that the case?
No, I believe he's a born again Bathian. I was referring to one particular part of the post as my subsequent comment made clear. But thanks for showing it's a sore spot.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1135132911378870272 > > > > > > > > How is this cretin a respected politician? Can remainers just say any damn thing that comes into their otherwise empty heads about leaving the EU without the WA these days? 'No deal would be like fiery death followed by being pecked in the eyes by geese, followed by a bad case of the clap' as all the other morons clap along in rapturous agreement. > > To be honest they were never known for their intelligence and wisdom in the first place. Brexit has just tipped them over the edge.
Jo is of course a classic career politician who started young. Her only meaningful job seems to have been doing the PR for a local radio station in Hull before she got elected to parliament in 2005.
Most 22 year olds have more practical real world work experience (outside politics) than the likely next leader of the Lib Dems.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video? > > > > He pronounces it like that. > > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
> Both will eat her alive, she is a pygmy compared to either of them
I'm not so sure. She's coming up with some punchy retorts. Her latest to Sajid Javid is good:
"You can’t ‘prepare’ for no-deal. That’s like saying you’re preparing for your house to burn down.
You might buy contents insurance, but you’re still going to lose all your stuff."
The Lib Dems have a good handle on quotable quotes at the moment. It might be sad that the level of debate has sunk that low, but it's the reality. Until the message sinks in about how utterly disastrous No Deal would be they must keep at it.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > She is jealous of the attention Davidson gets and so is aping her, two attention seeking single policy useless twerps. > > > > > > > > > > > > SNP'er complaining about single policy...... > > > > > > You don't see the SNP bleating every day about independence, Tories and Lib Dems manage that as they are fixated. SNP are getting on with trying to save the country from the ravages of the Westminster cartel. Add limp Labour, given SNP just keep on getting more popular after more than 12 years in power,and it easy to see why the unionists are suffering panic attacks. With little pip squeaks like Javid and clowns like Swinson saying they won't allow a vote, it is plain to see independence is inevitable. > > > > > > PS: I AM NOT A MEMBER OF THE SNP. I support independence for Scotland and have no party affiliations. > > > > In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last. > > > > So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since > > I believe the SNP polled 37% in 2017 and barely bettered that in the EU elections with 37.7%. I agree with your main point though, and would add that the 37.7% will have included a protest vote element which in most of GB was directed to the Brexit Party, the LibDems & the Greens. I have long held the view that the SNP is unlikely to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election and see nothing from the EU results to make me revise that view.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video? > > > > He pronounces it like that. > > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
> Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
And Gauke who, if not heavyweight, is one of the better Cabinet Ministers.
I think we will see, with the votes Rory gets, how many sensible pragmatic realistic Tories there are left in the party. I am not holding my breath.
And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
You can't get out of a hole until you first recognise you are in one. Getting out depends on most people recognising Brexit being the mistake it was always going to be.
The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
Indeed Alastair. Safe in the knowledge that their offshore funds are unaffected.
Call me a ludicrous optimist, but I do think the David Prescott revelations could be the end for Corbyn. You just cannot spin promoting someone to a key role in your inner circle after you were told of an unbelievably serious and credible sexual misconduct complaint. Even some staunch Labour loyalists are calling for Karie Murphy to go, and Corbyn arguably faces even more serious questions as while she blocked the complaint, he installed him as his personal Head of Press and Events after he knew of the most serious complaint.
> @another_richard said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > > > > > > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video? > > > > > > > > He pronounces it like that. > > > > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union? > > Wasn't Culloden a victory for Unionists ?
Bonnie Prince Charlie wanted I presume to rule over the entire union as he felt was his birthright - which it was of course had his grand father's religion not got in the way!
So it wasn't really about unionism!
I expect the Highland clearances which followed Culloden were more of a contentious issue.
The sane wing of the party is looking for someone to lead.
If the party splits (as it should) he could lead the realists while the headbangers fight it out with the One True Brexiteers for the swivel eyed vote.
Call me a ludicrous optimist, but I do think the David Prescott revelations could be the end for Corbyn. You just cannot spin promoting someone to a key role in your inner circle after you were told of an unbelievably serious and credible sexual misconduct complaint. Even some staunch Labour loyalists are calling for Karie Murphy to go, and Corbyn arguably faces even more serious questions as while she blocked the complaint, he installed him as his personal Head of Press and Events after he knew of the most serious complaint.
I don't see Labour MPs resigning the whip, and the membership would vote for Corbyn again.
> Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
Like most remaining Scotch LDs Swinson probably has Unionism has her defining political identity, hence the endless Sturgeonating. Since she seems to live mainly in England, it's rather odd that she hasn't caught up with the Union being quite far down the list of priorities for most English folk.
Born and bred and lives in Bath TUD , though claims to be from Glasgow.
Bit like Wings over Scotland. The fair city of Bath is becoming a real home away from home.
Think he at least had 18 years in Scotland rather than 18 minutes and conversely he makes no pretence to be English through and through.
> So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
Raab is not a serious candidate. Javid seems to be on a list of one at the moment.
> @MJW said: > Call me a ludicrous optimist, but I do think the David Prescott revelations could be the end for Corbyn. You just cannot spin promoting someone to a key role in your inner circle after you were told of an unbelievably serious and credible sexual misconduct complaint. Even some staunch Labour loyalists are calling for Karie Murphy to go, and Corbyn arguably faces even more serious questions as while she blocked the complaint, he installed him as his personal Head of Press and Events after he knew of the most serious complaint.
It should be but that's not how the hard left operates.
> However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
I'm sticking with the wadfc thesis.
These twunts would struggle to get a job sweeping the streets.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
> @HYUFD said: > > @MaxPB said: > > So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives. > > I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
Which Whitehall departments is Raab proposing to 'slash' ?
If he hasn't revealed that, with necessary details as to how it will happen, then he doesn't have a 'plan' but is merely posturing.
> > So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
>
> I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
Which Whitehall departments is Raab proposing to 'slash' ?
If he hasn't revealed that, with necessary details as to how it will happen, then he doesn't have a 'plan' but is merely posturing.
Indeed, it is why he is an unserious candidate. I don't think he will make it to the final selection.
> However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
Wasn't Culloden a victory for Unionists ?
__________
The Culloden victory was thanks to the German carriage manufacturers.
When I used to hang about the horse racing forum on Betfair, there was one poster, Warwickhunt, who was king of short price favourites and backing at 1.01 in running; wadfc was one of his favourite epithets. I try to use it sparingly, but this seemed one of those times when it was on the nose.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > > > > > > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video? > > > > > > > > He pronounces it like that. > > > > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union? > > > I'm sticking with the wadfc thesis.
Unsurprising Labour were massively overstated. All their politically engaged voters jumped ship and they were left with a rump of apathetic core vote parroting their name but never likely to turn up.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > > > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today. > > Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
I agree utbis a matter of perception but if course I would include the State theft of the majority of my income as part of that intrusion.
On possible other leadership contenders, I saw that Steve Baker is taking further soundings. Has Penny Mordaunt made her splash yet? What of Priti Patel and Sir Graham Brady?
> @AlastairMeeks said: > On topic, polling is likely to be fluid for some time. You can’t envy the pollsters who have to struggle to adapt the methods for a changed politics.
The problem is that opinion pollsters have spent decades devising elaborate schemes to mask critical flaws.
If opinion polls were able to get a random sample of the electorate then the fact politics has changed wouldn't matter. The problem is they can't, so they come up with ever-increasing ways to mask the fact the same isn't random by weighting to make it appear random.
In normal times it works, but there's no guarantee of that.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder. > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening? ----------------------- No. Both yesterday's men.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > On possible other leadership contenders, I saw that Steve Baker is taking further soundings. Has Penny Mordaunt made her splash yet? What of Priti Patel and Sir Graham Brady?
Would be pretty stupid of Brady to not even run after stepping aside from overseeing the contest due to potentially running. I hope they all stand - there seems some disquiet about just how many people are standing and will be able to cobble together 2 nominations, but that's not really a problem. Just hold the votes closer together to narrow the field, and in the meantime best to have the widest possible band of leadership ideas to pick from .
This does assume they have actual ideas rather than just posturing that they can magic a solution to Brexit based on bluster, and parliament and the EU rolling over for some reason, but with such a wide field we get a few actual ideas simply due to the sheer weight of numbers.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > On topic, polling is likely to be fluid for some time. You can’t envy the pollsters who have to struggle to adapt the methods for a changed politics. > > The problem is that opinion pollsters have spent decades devising elaborate schemes to mask critical flaws. > > If opinion polls were able to get a random sample of the electorate then the fact politics has changed wouldn't matter. The problem is they can't, so they come up with ever-increasing ways to mask the fact the same isn't random by weighting to make it appear random. > > In normal times it works, but there's no guarantee of that.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > > > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today. > > Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
Yes, I agree. It's a state of mind more than anything for most people - in the same way, you get people saying that the EU constantly interferes in British life, but struggling to be specific.
People on benefits do get a lot of (in my view somewhat excessive) direction - jump through this hoop, now jump through that one.
People who appear to be looking after themselves are largely left to get on with it. A problem is that when people suddenly actually could benefit from the state getting involved (a family crisis of one kind of another), they have to seek out the right assistance themselves, and because it's sudden they don't know where to go. Constituency postbags are full of cases like that (as I imagine are CAB casebooks).
> @AlastairMeeks said: > The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
After the Leadsom Marr interview its now called a “managed exit”. In the sense that we leave, and then we have to manage.
> @IanB2 said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying. > > After the Leadsom Marr interview its now called a “managed exit”. In the sense that we leave, and then we have to manage.
--------------------- Not a fan of rebranding something to make it seem more palatable.
Second referendum - people's vote - confirmatory referendum
No deal brexit - clean brexit - managed exit
It's always such shameless spinning. People tie themselves in knots justifying why their rebrand is totally reasonable, but the other side rebranding is not ok at all.
Yes, he's just going for a continuity May WA, which will not get through, but there are too many promising very big with at best small chances of delivery - what will they do in a few months when they cannot do that?
> @Mysticrose said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > Both will eat her alive, she is a pygmy compared to either of them > > I'm not so sure. She's coming up with some punchy retorts. Her latest to Sajid Javid is good: > > "You can’t ‘prepare’ for no-deal. That’s like saying you’re preparing for your house to burn down. > > You might buy contents insurance, but you’re still going to lose all your stuff." > > The Lib Dems have a good handle on quotable quotes at the moment. It might be sad that the level of debate has sunk that low, but it's the reality. Until the message sinks in about how utterly disastrous No Deal would be they must keep at it. > >
That's a rotten example. Get a contents insurance policy on a "new for old" basis, and you'll be much better off once it pays out.
> @Scott_P said: > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1135178049916473345 -------------- Ah yes, the classic euro brureacrat's 'No, I totally get that people can have issues with the EU without being awful people' nonsense, that evaporates once they think the pressure is off. Next thing he'll mention that populism is inherently awful and that reform is definitely needed.
> @matt said: > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe > > I think The Brexit Party deliberately has people with differing views on things other than Brexit. > > Of course it does. That’s how NOTA operates. People can print their hopes on it, regardless of contradictions. See also Liberal Democrats, passim. > > One might argue that they’re just engaged in an exercise in deception and triangulation and are fundamentally no different to the rest.
I think that goes without saying. All parties should be viewed with unfiltered distrust, even those who have some policies you agree with.
> @kle4 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1135178049916473345 > -------------- > Ah yes, the classic euro brureacrat's 'No, I totally get that people can have issues with the EU without being awful people' nonsense, that evaporates once they think the pressure is off. Next thing he'll mention that populism is inherently awful and that reform is definitely needed.
And then he will conclude that the answer is more More Europe.
Great to see that the Labour candidate in Peterborough is apologising and pledging to do anti-semitism training. Would have been disappointing had we selected someone who didn't need training...
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Great to see that the Labour candidate in Peterborough is apologising and pledging to do anti-semitism training. Would have been disappointing had we selected someone who didn't need training...
> On topic, polling is likely to be fluid for some time. You can’t envy the pollsters who have to struggle to adapt the methods for a changed politics.
The problem is that opinion pollsters have spent decades devising elaborate schemes to mask critical flaws.
If opinion polls were able to get a random sample of the electorate then the fact politics has changed wouldn't matter. The problem is they can't, so they come up with ever-increasing ways to mask the fact the same isn't random by weighting to make it appear random.
In normal times it works, but there's no guarantee of that.
Yes -- pollsters try to use weighting to overcome sampling errors. But they do not help themselves by asking so many questions. If they just asked how you will vote, they'd probably get a better response rate than a 30-minute Spanish inquisition (if Jeremy Corbyn were a flower and Theresa May were a pancake, when will the Brexit train arrive?) that ensures it is only the desperate who answer: political activists and the chronically skint.
Seriously, go to any of the pollsters' sites, look up the full results and try to guess at which particular sub-question any normal person would have walked away. And that is without having to have done the survey on washing up liquid that preceded it.
Comments
I think we will see, with the votes Rory gets, how many sensible pragmatic realistic Tories there are left in the party. I am not holding my breath.
And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
>
> He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
Definitely heavy in the case of Soames, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays.
More seriously, contrary to the spin coming from the right after the public poll, to achieve comparable results with other back candidates and go from about 0-60 in one week in terms of public recognition, bodes well for him for the future.
https://twitter.com/MatthewsonJames/status/1135102497972989952
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
> >
> > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
>
> Definitely heavy in the case of one, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays.
Thought it was the other way round? Soames looks positively gaunt nowadays (cue 'like being fallen on by a small cupboard with its key in' jokes),
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
> > >
> > > He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
> >
> > Definitely heavy in the case of one, but Clarke has slimmed down nowadays.
>
>
> Thought it was the other way round? Soames looks positively gaunt nowadays (cue 'like being fallen on by a small cupboard with its key in' jokes),
Ah - maybe they've both lost weight nowadays. Good for them.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
>
> He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
Are you referring to Soames as a physical heavyweight or a political heavyweight ?
> Sam Gyimah has thrown his hat into the ring. That ring is beginning to resemble a milliner’s.
1922 needs to stop this now. Tories were a laughing stock already, but this is crazy.
I guess Jezza and Trump are partly to blame. The idea that someone who everyone thinks has no hope at the outset goes on to win.
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > > Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > She is jealous of the attention Davidson gets and so is aping her, two attention seeking single policy useless twerps.
> >
> >
> >
> > SNP'er complaining about single policy......
> >
> > You don't see the SNP bleating every day about independence, Tories and Lib Dems manage that as they are fixated. SNP are getting on with trying to save the country from the ravages of the Westminster cartel. Add limp Labour, given SNP just keep on getting more popular after more than 12 years in power,and it easy to see why the unionists are suffering panic attacks. With little pip squeaks like Javid and clowns like Swinson saying they won't allow a vote, it is plain to see independence is inevitable.
> >
> > PS: I AM NOT A MEMBER OF THE SNP. I support independence for Scotland and have no party affiliations.
>
> In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last.
>
> So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
I believe the SNP polled 37% in 2017 and barely bettered that in the EU elections with 37.7%. I agree with your main point though, and would add that the 37.7% will have included a protest vote element which in most of GB was directed to the Brexit Party, the LibDems & the Greens. I have long held the view that the SNP is unlikely to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election and see nothing from the EU results to make me revise that view.
> In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last.
>
> So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
The type of person that directly compares one type of election with another is also the sort that compares movements between polls from different companies and guddles about looking for significance in one-off sub samples.
That's you, that is.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1135149840952909825
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > Sam Gyimah has thrown his hat into the ring. That ring is beginning to resemble a milliner’s.
>
> 1922 needs to stop this now. Tories were a laughing stock already, but this is crazy.
>
> I guess Jezza and Trump are partly to blame. The idea that someone who everyone thinks has no hope at the outset goes on to win.
In fairness to Sam Gyimah he has a different policy position, in that he wants a fresh referendum. It doesn’t look like a winning prospectus in this contest but at least he’s airing it.
It’s the raft of Leavers with indistinguishable programmes that baffle me in this contest.
> Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
Fox was on Broadcasting House on R4 this am doing the paper review. I was hoping her now being an elected member meant that she wouldn't be popping up constantly as a R4 rentagob, but no..
James Cleverly elected leader after Rory Stewart manages to clothesline Sam Gyimah over the top rope but takes himself out as a screaming Ester McVey claws at him from the floor having herself just been double eliminated with Penny Moudaunt
>
> And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
>
> For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
Every chance that Solomon will be standing I would have thought. Few days to go yet till the cut off.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Andrea Leadsom on Marr says she will talk to all parties but rules out a formal alliance
> >
> > I really don't know why we push people to confirm their post-election stances so early, given how much is unknown. At this stage we could have different leaders of Con/Lab/LD by the next election, we have no idea what their Brexit stance would be or what compromise stance they might be willing to accept. And we have no idea what the balance of MPs in the Commons would be. So how can anyone rule out almost anything?
>
> not quite true. I think we can be fairly confident of the Brexit stance of the Leader of the Lib Dems. Whether it's Jo or Ed.
> None of the many candidates in the Tory contest comes anywhere close to either of them as regards competence or coherence.
Even there, we know they'd want a second referendum but we don't know what option(s) they'd demand/accept. Obviously they'd want Remain on there, but Jo Swinson said in a hustings this week she doesn't think No Deal is a responsible option to put to the people. So would she accept it in return for a second vote, or is that a red line for her? Truth is we don't know, so how can Leadsom or anyone else say whether they could make a deal with her?
Wadfc.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1134914158288396288
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
>
> https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1135086371616579584
That's my decision sorted then - provided Rory makes it to the vote......
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1135132911378870272
>
> I think Jo and Scott have spectacularly missed the point being made.
______________
There is no point being made. That's the point.
Javid says he wants to avoid No Deal but has rejected all the current enablers of a deal: a second referendum, an extension past October and by implication the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form. So No Deal isn't just something that might happen by unavoidable default. It is a realistic outcome thanks to Javid's red lines. So how does he square that with previous claims that No Deal would be disaster, when it might be one of his own making?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > And even Rory - for all his eccentric charm and thoughtfulness - has no real answer as to how to get out of the hole the country is in, namely, that the only sensible orderly way of leaving is with the WA but there is no Parliamentary majority for it and a no Deal exit risks causing economic and social shock, putting the country in a much worse position when it comes to sorting things out post-exit.
> >
> > For that we need the wisdom of Solomon. We have the choice of the wisdom of a lot of Noddies instead.
>
> Every chance that Solomon will be standing I would have thought. Few days to go yet till the cut off.
-----------------
More likely that Noddy will stand and Solomon will give it a miss.
Possible upset ?
>
> He doesn't spell it like that in the video?
He pronounces it like that.
> Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1135086371616579584
>
> That's my decision sorted then - provided Rory makes it to the vote......
Rory has proved beyond doubt that May was wrong to waste him for so long. An interesting, intelligent and personable Tory. They are not exactly thick on the ground. I hope whoever wins (and it won’t be him)makes much more use of his talents
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
>
> There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
Tell that to Alan Turing.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
>
> There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
1950's gay Britain might beg to differ.
> https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1135132911378870272
>
>
>
> How is this cretin a respected politician? Can remainers just say any damn thing that comes into their otherwise empty heads about leaving the EU without the WA these days? 'No deal would be like fiery death followed by being pecked in the eyes by geese, followed by a bad case of the clap' as all the other morons clap along in rapturous agreement.
To be honest they were never known for their intelligence and wisdom in the first place. Brexit has just tipped them over the edge.
Makes it very hard to call any kind of front runner.
Also, who do folk reckon for last place? My guess is Malthouse.
PS: Typical southerner , has nosebleed in Scotland and makes up imaginary places. Brigadoon here we come.
> Bit like Wings over Scotland. The fair city of Bath is becoming a real home away from home.
Wasn't aware that Wings was born and bred in Bath, or claims to be from Glasgow. Is that the case?
> So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
>
> However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
He’s going to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement by demanding a Brexit that works for the people of Waterloo, as well as Waterlooville.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1135132911378870272
> >
> >
> >
> > How is this cretin a respected politician? Can remainers just say any damn thing that comes into their otherwise empty heads about leaving the EU without the WA these days? 'No deal would be like fiery death followed by being pecked in the eyes by geese, followed by a bad case of the clap' as all the other morons clap along in rapturous agreement.
>
> To be honest they were never known for their intelligence and wisdom in the first place. Brexit has just tipped them over the edge.
Jo is of course a classic career politician who started young. Her only meaningful job seems to have been doing the PR for a local radio station in Hull before she got elected to parliament in 2005.
Most 22 year olds have more practical real world work experience (outside politics) than the likely next leader of the Lib Dems.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> >
>
> > He doesn't spell it like that in the video?
>
>
>
> He pronounces it like that.
>
> However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
I'm sticking with the wadfc thesis.
> Both will eat her alive, she is a pygmy compared to either of them
I'm not so sure. She's coming up with some punchy retorts. Her latest to Sajid Javid is good:
"You can’t ‘prepare’ for no-deal. That’s like saying you’re preparing for your house to burn down.
You might buy contents insurance, but you’re still going to lose all your stuff."
The Lib Dems have a good handle on quotable quotes at the moment. It might be sad that the level of debate has sunk that low, but it's the reality. Until the message sinks in about how utterly disastrous No Deal would be they must keep at it.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > >
> > > > Jo Swinson acts as if her main opponent is Nicola Sturgeon, which makes her ill-suited to take on the mantle of leading the opposition in England.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > She is jealous of the attention Davidson gets and so is aping her, two attention seeking single policy useless twerps.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > SNP'er complaining about single policy......
> > >
> > > You don't see the SNP bleating every day about independence, Tories and Lib Dems manage that as they are fixated. SNP are getting on with trying to save the country from the ravages of the Westminster cartel. Add limp Labour, given SNP just keep on getting more popular after more than 12 years in power,and it easy to see why the unionists are suffering panic attacks. With little pip squeaks like Javid and clowns like Swinson saying they won't allow a vote, it is plain to see independence is inevitable.
> > >
> > > PS: I AM NOT A MEMBER OF THE SNP. I support independence for Scotland and have no party affiliations.
> >
> > In 2015 the SNP reached 50% of the vote at the general election in Scotland, in 2017 they declined to 37%, a total they virtually matched with the 38% they got in the European elections the week before last.
> >
> > So the SNP are not getting more popular, they actually peaked in 2015 and have declined ever since
>
> I believe the SNP polled 37% in 2017 and barely bettered that in the EU elections with 37.7%. I agree with your main point though, and would add that the 37.7% will have included a protest vote element which in most of GB was directed to the Brexit Party, the LibDems & the Greens. I have long held the view that the SNP is unlikely to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election and see nothing from the EU results to make me revise that view.
Agreed
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> >
>
> > He doesn't spell it like that in the video?
>
>
>
> He pronounces it like that.
>
> However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
Wasn't Culloden a victory for Unionists ?
Everything else is suboptimal.
> The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
Indeed Alastair. Safe in the knowledge that their offshore funds are unaffected.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video?
> >
> >
> >
> > He pronounces it like that.
> >
> > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
>
> Wasn't Culloden a victory for Unionists ?
Bonnie Prince Charlie wanted I presume to rule over the entire union as he felt was his birthright - which it was of course had his grand father's religion not got in the way!
So it wasn't really about unionism!
I expect the Highland clearances which followed Culloden were more of a contentious issue.
Nothing Has Changed!
> Call me a ludicrous optimist, but I do think the David Prescott revelations could be the end for Corbyn. You just cannot spin promoting someone to a key role in your inner circle after you were told of an unbelievably serious and credible sexual misconduct complaint. Even some staunch Labour loyalists are calling for Karie Murphy to go, and Corbyn arguably faces even more serious questions as while she blocked the complaint, he installed him as his personal Head of Press and Events after he knew of the most serious complaint.
It should be but that's not how the hard left operates.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
>
> There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > So does anyone know which of the current candidates is a small state conservative? So far all I've seen is all candidates proposing the state as the answer for everything and an expansion of the state's role in people's lives.
>
> I guess you have not heard Javid's plan this morning to scrap the top income tax rate or Raab's plan to cut the top income tax rate to 35% and slash the number of Whitehall departments then?
Which Whitehall departments is Raab proposing to 'slash' ?
If he hasn't revealed that, with necessary details as to how it will happen, then he doesn't have a 'plan' but is merely posturing.
The Culloden victory was thanks to the German carriage manufacturers.
> ...Wadfc...
>
> I googled "wadfc". Thank you...
When I used to hang about the horse racing forum on Betfair, there was one poster, Warwickhunt, who was king of short price favourites and backing at 1.01 in running; wadfc was one of his favourite epithets. I try to use it sparingly, but this seemed one of those times when it was on the nose.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > He doesn't spell it like that in the video?
> >
> >
> >
> > He pronounces it like that.
> >
> > However he pronounces Culloden, what on earth possessed him to mention it in the first place while banging on about the sanctity of "our precious" union?
>
>
> I'm sticking with the wadfc thesis.
He must think Scottish Rory is one of the Stuarts
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
> >
> > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
>
> Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
I agree utbis a matter of perception but if course I would include the State theft of the majority of my income as part of that intrusion.
> I didn't see Ridge this morning, but...
>
> https://twitter.com/MatthewsonJames/status/1135102497972989952
-------------------------
She what?!
> On topic, polling is likely to be fluid for some time. You can’t envy the pollsters who have to struggle to adapt the methods for a changed politics.
The problem is that opinion pollsters have spent decades devising elaborate schemes to mask critical flaws.
If opinion polls were able to get a random sample of the electorate then the fact politics has changed wouldn't matter. The problem is they can't, so they come up with ever-increasing ways to mask the fact the same isn't random by weighting to make it appear random.
In normal times it works, but there's no guarantee of that.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Ken Clarke will vote for Rory reports OrderOrder.
>
> He has two heavyweight endorsement now - Clarke and Soames. Something happening?
-----------------------
No. Both yesterday's men.
> On possible other leadership contenders, I saw that Steve Baker is taking further soundings. Has Penny Mordaunt made her splash yet? What of Priti Patel and Sir Graham Brady?
Would be pretty stupid of Brady to not even run after stepping aside from overseeing the contest due to potentially running. I hope they all stand - there seems some disquiet about just how many people are standing and will be able to cobble together 2 nominations, but that's not really a problem. Just hold the votes closer together to narrow the field, and in the meantime best to have the widest possible band of leadership ideas to pick from .
This does assume they have actual ideas rather than just posturing that they can magic a solution to Brexit based on bluster, and parliament and the EU rolling over for some reason, but with such a wide field we get a few actual ideas simply due to the sheer weight of numbers.
https://twitter.com/bbcessex/status/1135173525894029313?s=21
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > On topic, polling is likely to be fluid for some time. You can’t envy the pollsters who have to struggle to adapt the methods for a changed politics.
>
> The problem is that opinion pollsters have spent decades devising elaborate schemes to mask critical flaws.
>
> If opinion polls were able to get a random sample of the electorate then the fact politics has changed wouldn't matter. The problem is they can't, so they come up with ever-increasing ways to mask the fact the same isn't random by weighting to make it appear random.
>
> In normal times it works, but there's no guarantee of that.
There was a Survey Monkey poll that did just that (random sample) before the 2015 GE - 18,000 respondents. Not too far out, either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election?wprov=sfla1
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
> >
> > There was far less State intrusion into our lives in 1950 than there is today.
>
> Perhaps it is mainly a matter of personal perception but I feel virtually no State interference or intrusion as I go about my daily business. I feel free. I think this is because I am not having to do a job I hate in order to pay the bills. When I was in that unhealthy position a few years ago I did not feel free. I felt extremely interfered with and intruded upon. But not by the State. By Lehman Brothers.
Yes, I agree. It's a state of mind more than anything for most people - in the same way, you get people saying that the EU constantly interferes in British life, but struggling to be specific.
People on benefits do get a lot of (in my view somewhat excessive) direction - jump through this hoop, now jump through that one.
People who appear to be looking after themselves are largely left to get on with it. A problem is that when people suddenly actually could benefit from the state getting involved (a family crisis of one kind of another), they have to seek out the right assistance themselves, and because it's sudden they don't know where to go. Constituency postbags are full of cases like that (as I imagine are CAB casebooks).
> > @rottenborough said:
> > I didn't see Ridge this morning, but...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MatthewsonJames/status/1135102497972989952
> -------------------------
> She what?!
Any word on the finality or otherwise of that solution?
> The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
After the Leadsom Marr interview its now called a “managed exit”. In the sense that we leave, and then we have to manage.
https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1135174624021553152?s=21
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The death cult Leavers out in force this afternoon to ramp up the possibility of a pain-free no deal Brexit. In a just world it would be their meds that would run out and their jobs that would be lost, but sadly they will probably be able to sit back, watch the suffering and nonchalantly conclude that it was a price worth paying.
>
> After the Leadsom Marr interview its now called a “managed exit”. In the sense that we leave, and then we have to manage.
---------------------
Not a fan of rebranding something to make it seem more palatable.
Second referendum - people's vote - confirmatory referendum
No deal brexit - clean brexit - managed exit
It's always such shameless spinning. People tie themselves in knots justifying why their rebrand is totally reasonable, but the other side rebranding is not ok at all.
Relatedly
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1135175187341729794
Yes, he's just going for a continuity May WA, which will not get through, but there are too many promising very big with at best small chances of delivery - what will they do in a few months when they cannot do that?
> Thread.
>
> https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1135174624021553152?s=21
It doesn't have to get through the Commons. It just needs the Commons to fail to agree on an alternative.
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > Both will eat her alive, she is a pygmy compared to either of them
>
> I'm not so sure. She's coming up with some punchy retorts. Her latest to Sajid Javid is good:
>
> "You can’t ‘prepare’ for no-deal. That’s like saying you’re preparing for your house to burn down.
>
> You might buy contents insurance, but you’re still going to lose all your stuff."
>
> The Lib Dems have a good handle on quotable quotes at the moment. It might be sad that the level of debate has sunk that low, but it's the reality. Until the message sinks in about how utterly disastrous No Deal would be they must keep at it.
>
>
That's a rotten example. Get a contents insurance policy on a "new for old" basis, and you'll be much better off once it pays out.
One might argue that they’re just engaged in an exercise in deception and triangulation and are fundamentally no different to the rest.
> https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1135178049916473345
--------------
Ah yes, the classic euro brureacrat's 'No, I totally get that people can have issues with the EU without being awful people' nonsense, that evaporates once they think the pressure is off. Next thing he'll mention that populism is inherently awful and that reform is definitely needed.
> Be interested to hear the views of supposed ultra libertarian, Claire Fox, about her fellow MEP, Anne 'I want to live in 1950' Widdecombe
>
> I think The Brexit Party deliberately has people with differing views on things other than Brexit.
>
> Of course it does. That’s how NOTA operates. People can print their hopes on it, regardless of contradictions. See also Liberal Democrats, passim.
>
> One might argue that they’re just engaged in an exercise in deception and triangulation and are fundamentally no different to the rest.
I think that goes without saying. All parties should be viewed with unfiltered distrust, even those who have some policies you agree with.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1135178049916473345
> --------------
> Ah yes, the classic euro brureacrat's 'No, I totally get that people can have issues with the EU without being awful people' nonsense, that evaporates once they think the pressure is off. Next thing he'll mention that populism is inherently awful and that reform is definitely needed.
And then he will conclude that the answer is more More Europe.
> Great to see that the Labour candidate in Peterborough is apologising and pledging to do anti-semitism training. Would have been disappointing had we selected someone who didn't need training...
Another one ffs?
Seriously, go to any of the pollsters' sites, look up the full results and try to guess at which particular sub-question any normal person would have walked away. And that is without having to have done the survey on washing up liquid that preceded it.