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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead
In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8
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Who
Meanwhile, we've ignored our working class base and allowed these voters to drift away to populists and abstention.
Basically, we are well on the road to being fecked.
> Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
> Who
Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
> >
> > Who
>
> Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.
To be fair, he does at least have a unique pitch. It will be interesting to see how many MPs support him.
> Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
Really. How wrong can they be
He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities
(Former Goldman trainee. And we all know how high the bar is there don’t we @rcs1000 )
> Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
> Who
He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
blockquotes
> Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
>
>
> Who
>
> I knew him well at university
>
> He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities
>
> (Former Salomon Smith Barney banker but didn’t make the grade. Which is pretty low)
His high opinion of himself is on full view on Sophy on Sunday
> Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
>
> Really. How wrong can they be
Er...... thank you.
I think!
> Here's one of Labour's problems. The latte-sipping hand-wringing crowd now make up a bigger slice of our voters than ever before. The thing is that for many such voters the same virtue signalling can be achieved whether they vote Labour, LibDem or Green. At the moment the two other flavours of right-onism are more appealing.
>
> Meanwhile, we've ignored our working class base and allowed these voters to drift away to populists and abstention.
>
> Basically, we are well on the road to being fecked.
Well of course, we have it tough. We don't even have the latte-sipping hand-wringers.....
> > @FF43 said:
> > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
>
> Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
It was significant that Farage launched a thinly veiled attack on Boris last night. It does look very much as if Farage sees Boris as a threat
> 24th like Sam Gyimah
>
> Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?
Are they available to be seen?
> > @Charles said:
> > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
> >
> >
> >
> > Who
> >
> > I knew him well at university
> >
> > He’s a follower not a leader. Ineffectual and has a very high opinion of his own abilities
> >
> > (Former Salomon Smith Barney banker but didn’t make the grade. Which is pretty low)
>
> His high opinion of himself is on full view on Sophy on Sunday
An arrogant Tory? Shocking!
> https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1135097228475928576
Why would they when his tenure is very tenuous and may end on the 31st October
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
> >
> > Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
>
> It was significant that Farage launched a thinly veiled attack on Boris last night. It does look very much as if Farage sees Boris as a threat
There's only room for one cock on a dung-heap!
> > @FF43 said:
> > Missing "First like Leave and Theresa May"
>
> Give it a few weeks and you can have "First like Leave and Boris". Hope that helps....
_____________________
Leave and Boris in a few weeks is highly possible. As it will be extremely chaotic, I wouldn't exactly say it helps. I'm just so hard to please...
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
> >
> > Really. How wrong can they be
>
> Er...... thank you.
>
> I think!
I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @OldKingCole said:
> > > > Ipsos-Mori rang me the other day. However when they discovered my age and where I lived they didn't want my opinion!
> > >
> > > Really. How wrong can they be
> >
> > Er...... thank you.
> >
> > I think!
>
> I am a similar age and do not see how a polling company does not want your opinion
To be fair, I think they had enough 'over 80's' in their sample!
> On topic, whichever party is actually ahead is of less consequence than the polls showing a 4-horse race. This is unprecedented and makes any sort of prediction of seat numbers total guesswork.
_______________________
This is the key point. Polls work when they deal with incremental change. So they can track movement from, say Labour to Conservative. Because they know how many voted for reach party in the past they can be confident of their modelling. Big change upends their modelling.
Michael Gove's is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqRbwxF4JJU
Other than that, it might be a case of mining twitter feeds. There was some controversy about whether Rory was merely pretending to film himself.
Dominic Raab put out this attacking Labour on antisemitism
https://www.dominicraab2019.com/corbynsantisemitism
(So far, only Sajid Javid has criticised Boris for Islamophobic language but I expect Dominic Raab will soon be all over it.)
Incidentally Sam Gyimah has just announced he's running.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
> > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
> > >
>
> > > Who
>
> >
>
> > Good news for everyone else worried that they might be bottom of the first ballot.
>
>
>
> To be fair, he does at least have a unique pitch. It will be interesting to see how many MPs support him.
>
> what would that pitch be
Oxford PPE. Unique amongst our political class.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y76hJ1Y6Zzc
> Sam Gyimah lol
He's my MP. In the unlikely event that he gets to the final two it will feel weird not voting for him.
> Are any of the parties on 20%+ in all three of these opinion polls?
Cheeky.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
> >
>
> > Who
>
>
>
> He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
>
> To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
Oh come on! He thinks that CV qualifies him to be prime minister? Nuts. I know we’re not what we once were, but let’s have some self respect. The bare minimum should be some demonstrable political success in a (shadow) cabinet or senior parliamentary or party role.
Hunt, Gove and Boris (for his mayoralty). That’s about it.
It isn’t personal!
> https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/markpack/status/1135101747704283136
The suggestion here is that the party most commonly pilloried by its rivals over the university tuition fees debacle may be developing a core demographic - centred on voters with a high level of education. Oh, the irony!
(As an aside, he was appointed PPS because David liked to “collect” minorities to prove what a good guy he was. He was appointed whip to get rid of him when David realised how useless he was)
> https://twitter.com/MattLavenderSky/status/1135105969967513600
3 backers and a similar level of non-tory public support to the other "back five" or so candidates, which is not bad for someone who was a virtual national unknown until last week ; and goes against the twitter spin about his "utter rejection" a couple of nights ago in the poll.
> left-wing BBC "of" fond tabloid imagination, it should say below.
I often think it's the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation now. Particularly when the Eastern Region's political correspondent is on!
Maybe I'm just getting over-sensitive.
5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.
Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > Sam Gyimah is standing for PM
>
> >
>
> > Who
>
>
>
> He's a former president of the Union (Oxford). He's one of those you would have expected to be a high flyer since becoming an MP but he's not been for some reason - no suspicions.
>
> To be fair to the Tories, Sam Giyamah was PPS to Cameron, a junior whip then a minister until he resigned over Brexit.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Gyimah
>
> And that qualifies him to be PM how, exactly?
>
> (As an aside, he was appointed PPS because David liked to “collect” minorities to prove what a good guy he was. He was appointed whip to get rid of him when David realised how useless he was)
>
> Well, it means Sam Giyamah has more experience of government than either Cameron or Blair when they entered Number 10. But I shan't be wagering on Sam this time round.
My wallet says Go Sam! I have a wild £2 bet on him from yonks ago, at huge odds.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
>
>
Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
> >
> >
>
> Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1135103602832400384
>
> Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
>
> https://twitter.com/markpack/status/1135101747704283136
>
> The suggestion here is that the party most commonly pilloried by its rivals over the university tuition fees debacle may be developing a core demographic - centred on voters with a high level of education. Oh, the irony!
Lib Dem support in areas of historic strength, like Devon and Cornwall, has cratered, (largely because such support was radical but eurosceptic) but they're making up for it in wealthy parts of the Home Counties and the M3/M4 corridors.
Tory Party would then be like Lab - saddled by membership with someone they don't want.
> Betfair has a market on number of MP ballots for the Tory leadership contest.
> 5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.
>
> Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.
I suspect there will be quite a few candidates dropping out after a ballot or two. We should remember that 2 of 5 candidates dropped out last time (albeit one after the MPs ballots). I slightly suspect a few are running with the hope of being bought off later on.
Almost 2/1 is still pretty good though. Might have a nibble.
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1135103602832400384
>
> Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
_________________________
The Lib Dems have a simple and fairly powerful message in Scotland: We are the only party that supports union with England and with the rest of Europe. That's the constitutional position of essentially all Labour voters that didn't defect to the SNP in 2014 and half of Conservative voters.
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
>
> Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.
See:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/01/grotesque-tory-leadership-race-feeding-contenders-egos/
Bizarrely, Daley sees Graham Brady as the solution to too many candidates. Others should realise he is sane and has authority and drop out. If I have understood her argument.
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Hypothetically if all Tory MPs run and vote for themselves, we will have deadlock in the voting system right?
>
> Some of the contenders are suffering from delusions of adequacy.
Legends in their own lunchtime.
Not even household names in their own household.
Parliament can't use VONC on Corbyn (yet).
> We could end up with Gove having most MPs votes in final round, but Boris going with him to the membership and the latter winning a landslide.
>
> Tory Party would then be like Lab - saddled by membership with someone they don't want.
Worse than that. The COUNTRY would be saddled with someone they don't want.
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1135109912978219009
Gyimah the first Tory leadership candidate then to propose EUref2
> https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1135094243674996736
The TMay effect. She was so crap people truly believe anyone can become PM.
See the Dem Primary to a similar effect of Trump becoming President.
Rennie makes Leonard almost look good.
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > Betfair has a market on number of MP ballots for the Tory leadership contest.
> > 5 or more is 2.82 currently. Unless I'm getting something wrong, for this bet to lose either a) Tories change rules mid contest b) 4+ candidates drop out before the ballot and no one new decides to run.
> >
> > Also, have chucked £2 on Adam afriyie to be next leader. The rationale is - he probably reckons he's up to it and I really want to win a 999/1 bet one day.
>
> I suspect there will be quite a few candidates dropping out after a ballot or two. We should remember that 2 of 5 candidates dropped out last time (albeit one after the MPs ballots). I slightly suspect a few are running with the hope of being bought off later on.
>
> Almost 2/1 is still pretty good though. Might have a nibble.
Ah yes thanks, hadn't thought of candidates dropping out after the ballots have started. Suspected it was too good to be true!
> One issue that has to be addressed by the 1922 is to take action to prevent derisory numbers of mps vying in future leadership elections
It's easily done, require 5% of MPs to sign nominating papers
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1135109912978219009
lol, this time it's a #FinalSay?
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1135103602832400384
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Yes, yes, it's him I know, but the observation is not wholly without merit (if you take "Tory" to mean 1960s One Nation Tory, rather than modern, radical Brexiteer Tory.) Meanwhile...
>
>
>
> _________________________
>
>
>
> The Lib Dems have a simple and fairly powerful message in Scotland: We are the only party that supports union with England and with the rest of Europe. That's the constitutional position of essentially all Labour voters that didn't defect to the SNP in 2014 and half of Conservative voters.
>
> LOL, they are bottom feeders in Scotland, a joke. Rennie is dire and they are fixated on No More Referendums we must remain subservient subjects of England. They scrabble about hoping to be best of the losers at the bottom end of the pile. If not for the voting system they would could not fill a phone box.
> Rennie makes Leonard almost look good.
++++++++++++++++++
Supporting both unions is a minority position, but a large and easily understood one, which the Lib Dems have to themselves.
> Is there a market for who comes bottom of the Conservative leadership election ?
There is an honourable Tory tradition of that being Liam Fox. And there is still time for him to declare and thus end the debate on this matter. If he doesn't - and I sense that he won't - then it is up for grabs. Almost as exciting as who wins in many ways. Gun to head, I would plump for Kit Malthouse. Ok, so he has a 'compromise' named after him, at first sight a great asset. But compromise is a dirty word these days. I see him being punished for it. Bottom. Wooden spoon. Nil points.
> Andrea Leadsom on Marr says she will talk to all parties but rules out a formal alliance
I really don't know why we push people to confirm their post-election stances so early, given how much is unknown. At this stage we could have different leaders of Con/Lab/LD by the next election, we have no idea what their Brexit stance would be or what compromise stance they might be willing to accept. And we have no idea what the balance of MPs in the Commons would be. So how can anyone rule out almost anything?
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