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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a Westminster voting intention poll
As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%.
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https://twitter.com/Daniel_J_Martin/status/1134050237792866304
https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1134236641047011333
>
> The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
>
They will on these numbers.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> > @another_richard said:
> >
> > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> >
>
> They will on these numbers.
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
>
Just LOL at trying to predict seat numbers with these numbers.
Liverpool will always be Labour.
> Every seat is a mariginal! Apart from Liverpool...
>
> Liverpool will always be Labour.
That's what they said about Glasgow......
Edit: Be nice for the Indy as well, is it a woman in Devon or somewhere like that I've heard about before?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > >
> >
> > They will on these numbers.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> >
>
> Just LOL at trying to predict seat numbers with these numbers.
Liz Truss is forecast to lose her Norfolk seat to the Brexit party by 0.02 percent on that forecast - which sort of proves your point! And the forecast has the BXP winning no seats at all in the south west outside Plymouth - which again doesn't seem wholly likely looking at the results last week.
> On this poll all 4 parties would be on 20 to 30% in Peterborough on UNS next week though the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
It would be quite a feat for the LDs to go from 3.3% to victory in Peterborough. Who knows?
>
> Liz Truss is forecast to lose her Norfolk seat to the Brexit party by 0.02 percent on that forecast - which sort of proves your point!
-------
Andrea Leadsom looks to be one of the only leadership contenders who's reasonably safe at the moment.
Even if TBP Ltd got Peterborough they are pretty unlikely to get Brecon, so the Lib Dems are still likely to have the wind in their sails with a new leader after the summer.
Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
Meanwhile the Tory leadership race is likely to increase party divisions not reduce them.
So after the CHUKers chuck it in, there could be a fair few others seeking to cross the floor... Any bets on the size of the Lib Dem Parliamentary party by year end?
> Well, one poll and all that... Let's see what Peterborough brings. However, there is no doubt that the Lib Dems are really fired up and after two good elections, the electorate is clearly swinging behind the idea of No Brexit.
>
> Even if TBP Ltd got Peterborough they are pretty unlikely to get Brecon, so the Lib Dems are still likely to have the wind in their sails with a new leader after the summer.
> Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
> Meanwhile the Tory leadership race is likely to increase party divisions not reduce them.
> So after the CHUKers chuck it in, there could be a fair few others seeking to cross the floor... Any bets on the size of the Lib Dem Parliamentary party by year end?
There is no evidence of the electorate as a whole swinging for or against anything. It rather reinforces the impression that we are deadlocked.
Yes, the Conservative leadership will highlight divisions - but it is also an opportunity to heal some of them (if they play it right) - Labour doesn't have anything close to a healing opportunity at present. And let's not forget that the LDs have their own leadership election going on.
Trying to read anything into this poll other than acknowledging this snapshot for being what it is really doesn't achieve anything. I know people love to speculate and extrapolate. But until this becomes a trend, it is nothing other than 1 opinion poll carried out in a particularly fractious period.
My vote might actually matter for a change.
> Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
Time for some MPs to defect? There must be a few more Lab MPs in London/SE/SW who were sick of Corbyn but didn't want to go kamikaze with CHUK, some of them must look at this polling and think maybe they have a better chance under the LD flag.
Then once the Tories elect their headbanger it'll be time for Tories in a similar situation to jump, and you have a GE basically under the current conditions, only with the headbanger drawing some of the Brexit voters from Brexit back to Con, and pushing more of the Remain Tories over to LD.
> Well, one poll and all that... Let's see what Peterborough brings. However, there is no doubt that the Lib Dems are really fired up and after two good elections, the electorate is clearly swinging behind the idea of No Brexit.
>
> Even if TBP Ltd got Peterborough they are pretty unlikely to get Brecon, so the Lib Dems are still likely to have the wind in their sails with a new leader after the summer.
> Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
> Meanwhile the Tory leadership race is likely to increase party divisions not reduce them.
> So after the CHUKers chuck it in, there could be a fair few others seeking to cross the floor... Any bets on the size of the Lib Dem Parliamentary party by year end?
I don't think there's any evidence that the country as a whole is swinging very clearly behind the idea of No Brexit. The country is just as divided as it was in 2016 as far as I can see.
What there is very clear evidence for is that the Labour Party is finding it increasingly difficult to keep its Remain and Leave supporters on board at the same time, losing support to the LDs and Greens in London and other cities / university towns, and to the Brexit Party in the North and Midlands. The Tories have similar problems, although with them it's more likely to be between the supporters of No Deal Brexit and pro-Deal Brexit than between Brexit of any type and Remain as it is for Labour.
> Brecon should be a shoo-in for the yellows if there is a by-election there.
I have no idea as to the strength of feeling in Brecon around the recall petition.
With Peterborough, it is a far more obvious act of criminality
Yes, making up a couple of invoices is illegal - but there was no personal gain, it was a clumsy and wrong way of reclaiming a legitimate expense.
No denying the illegality - but in terms of seriousness, it doesn't feel as bad
However I have no idea how it is playing locally. Anyone got a sense of it?
Is there a possibility that theses two by elections and a potential change to parliamentary arithmetic would tip the balance ?
I can see the advantage from a Labour point of view.
> > @Cicero said:
> > Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
>
> Time for some MPs to defect? There must be a few more Lab MPs in London/SE/SW who were sick of Corbyn but didn't want to go kamikaze with CHUK, some of them must look at this polling and think maybe they have a better chance under the LD flag.
>
> Then once the Tories elect their headbanger it'll be time for Tories in a similar situation to jump, and you have a GE basically under the current conditions, only with the headbanger drawing some of the Brexit voters from Brexit back to Con, and pushing more of the Remain Tories over to LD.
I would anticipate that assuming any general election was held in the autumn that by then the Labour conference would have forced the party to adopt a revoke/remain/2nd ref manifesto commitment.
> One of the big Lib Dem advantages at the moment is unity, are they going to want big egos from Labour who kick up a fuss and attack their own parties when they don't get their own way...
>
> I can see the advantage from a Labour point of view.
This attitude is why your tent keeps shrinking.
It is worth noting that the Labour MPs most loudly (or most bitterly) complaining are generally anti Corbyn, those most in favour of a second referendum but less passionately anti Corbyn are a bit quieter. My suspicion would be it is because the latter group think they will get their way whilst the former group will not.
IIUC the Tory leadership election is supposed to end in the middle of July. Parliament <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/">generally goes into recess in late July</a>.
There's a non-trivial possibility that the Tory leadership election will result a bunch of Tories resigning the whip, and the government losing its majority. Nobody else can make one, so this should trigger a new election two weeks later.
What happens if parliament was supposed to go into recess before two weeks are up? Does the clock stop until it comes back? Do the two weeks tick down regardless of the absence of a parliament to approve a successor? Or can parliament not go into recess?
> I would anticipate that assuming any general election was held in the autumn that by then the Labour conference would have forced the party to adopt a revoke/remain/2nd ref manifesto commitment.
I'm not sure the next general election will wait until the autumn. (See procedural question post.)
> Procedural question:
>
> IIUC the Tory leadership election is supposed to end in the middle of July. Parliament <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/">generally goes into recess in late July</a>.
>
> There's a non-trivial possibility that the Tory leadership election will result a bunch of Tories resigning the whip, and the government losing its majority. Nobody else can make one, so this should trigger a new election two weeks later.
>
> What happens if parliament was supposed to go into recess before two weeks are up? Does the clock stop until it comes back? Do the two weeks tick down regardless of the absence of a parliament to approve a successor? Or can parliament not go into recess?
>
>
Resigning the whip wouldn't trigger an election unless a confidence motion was brought and lost. I'd think that no-one would want an election during the school holidays, but can any member call for a confidence motion or does it need to be the leader of the opposition ? (In other words, would the timing be in Corbyn's control)
> Resigning the whip wouldn't trigger an election unless a confidence motion was brought and lost. I'd think that no-one would want an election during the school holidays, but can any member call for a confidence motion or does it need to be the leader of the opposition ? (In other words, would the timing be in Corbyn's control)
IIUC it's conventionally the leader of the opposition who brings a confidence motion, but if they don't bring it somebody else can. Corbyn could of course vote with the government, but it's hard to see.
Also there's a brexit deadline at the end of October which may or may not be extendable, so unless you want No Deal I think you want to get the thing moving, summer holidays or not.
So it is only the LOTO who can move such a motion and guarantee that it will reach the floor of the house (within 24 hours)
In terms of Parliament rising for the summer, that date can be changed easily enough it is not writ in stone - so should the 2 week window run over the initial date, a simple business motion could extend the sitting long enough to resolve the issue (or not)
Given the febrile nature of the polls, Corbyn may not wish to move a vote unless he feels confident of being able to form some sort of administration in the aftermath.
As things stand, I don't believe he can command the majority of the House - so he is not likely to be able to form an administration ahead of an election. The question is - can he feel confident about forming one after the election?
The figures don't exactly look good in that regard. The price some of the smaller parties might demand may well be one he is not willing to pay.
We might see some sort of holding pattern as the parties circle one another - no-one being willing to press the self-destruct button quite yet.
- “... non-official policy lines that I repeatedly used on the doorstep...“
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-european-elections-mep-northeast-brexit-final-say-a8934686.html
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right to leave 46 (-2)
Wrong to leave 41 (-)
Don't know 13 (+2)
84% of Leave voters think its right to leave, 87% of Remain voters think its wrong.....
Nothing has changed.
Edit: I understand Layla isn't running anyway...
> > @another_richard said:
> >
> > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> >
>
> They will on these numbers.
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
>
Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
SNP 57 seats (+22)
Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
Con 0 seats (-13)
Lab 0 seats (-7)
The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1134143490403766272
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > >
> >
> > They will on these numbers.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> >
>
> Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
>
> SNP 57 seats (+22)
> Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> Con 0 seats (-13)
> Lab 0 seats (-7)
>
> The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
>
> https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Flavible map won't happen. Brexit party score in Tottenham is way too high for instance.
The website says:
- “Flavible is an independent commentator on UK politics, specialising in seat projection and statistical analysis. It was founded by George Rushton, Co-Founder and Director of Flavible LTD... George Rushton: Software developer with a keen interest in politics, statistics and political analysis. Sole developer of all things Flavible Politics.“
Sounds suspiciously like a schoolboy having a wee dabble.
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/dqiSijBc2JiFa2G9C3STiD2cgko/appointments
At a minimum he will be allowed to lose another GE and he may not even go after that. It's not Jeremy himself that's venerated; it's what he represents.
I want a left wing domestic and foreign policy offering to vote for, that is inevitably going to attract criticism and attacks.
If my reaction to that negative reaction is to take out anyone who advocates my politics then my politics are never going to get anywhere.
Ultimately Corbyn may just end up making it much easier for his left wing successor if he can't reach number 10, his internal enemies will have expended so much energy, goodwill and political capital stopping him that they will be too marginalised to attack his successor anywhere near as successfully. The CUK MPs for example can't do anywhere near as much damage as they have to Corbyn, some others will step down by the time of the next election.
I'd rather just attract people and keep them on side with our policy offering but Farage has shown how powerful a betrayal narrative can be, if we fail at the next election Labour members aren't going to flock into the arms of progress and other centrist Labour groups for helping secure a Tory government for 5/X more years.
With Labour, isn't there a risk the leadership just says "ok" and purges non-far left types?
> Who are these Flavible people? Suddenly see them shared all over the place, but they have no track record to compare to Baxter et al.
>
>
>
> The website says:
>
> - “Flavible is an independent commentator on UK politics, specialising in seat projection and statistical analysis. It was founded by George Rushton, Co-Founder and Director of Flavible LTD... George Rushton: Software developer with a keen interest in politics, statistics and political analysis. Sole developer of all things Flavible Politics.“
>
>
>
> Sounds suspiciously like a schoolboy having a wee dabble.
>
> Not quite a schoolboy, but Mr Rushton is but 25.....
>
> https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/dqiSijBc2JiFa2G9C3STiD2cgko/appointments
Jeepers kreepers: “Occupation: Student”
Duly added to my Smelly List.
As far as Peterborough is concerned, one would have to conclude that a Conservative collapse is likely, but a Labour one isn't. Peterborough was one of the handful of counting areas in the East of England region where Labour wasn't ground down to about 5% of the vote last week, even if its performance there wasn't exactly stellar. There's a sufficient BAME vote in the constituency to keep it in the game; the question is whether there's also a large enough "anyone but Farage" leftist vote in the seat as well, willing to back Labour (whether they do so holding their noses or not) to get them over the line.
The Labour brand itself is now so damaged, through the combination of its muddled European position and the fact that Corbyn is also a controversial, Marmite politician, that it's quite possible that there isn't.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > >
> > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > >
> >
> > They will on these numbers.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> >
>
> Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
>
> SNP 57 seats (+22)
> Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> Con 0 seats (-13)
> Lab 0 seats (-7)
>
> The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
>
> https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > Procedural question:
> >
> > IIUC the Tory leadership election is supposed to end in the middle of July. Parliament <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/">generally goes into recess in late July</a>.
> >
> > There's a non-trivial possibility that the Tory leadership election will result a bunch of Tories resigning the whip, and the government losing its majority. Nobody else can make one, so this should trigger a new election two weeks later.
> >
> > What happens if parliament was supposed to go into recess before two weeks are up? Does the clock stop until it comes back? Do the two weeks tick down regardless of the absence of a parliament to approve a successor? Or can parliament not go into recess?
> >
> >
>
> Resigning the whip wouldn't trigger an election unless a confidence motion was brought and lost. I'd think that no-one would want an election during the school holidays, but can any member call for a confidence motion or does it need to be the leader of the opposition ? (In other words, would the timing be in Corbyn's control)
Any member can table one - but it would be seriously career limiting and would be ignored by the speaker if it were not a party leader. And, by convention, whereas the speaker has to make time for one coming from the leader of the official opposition (one of its privileges), such motions can be ignored if coming from elsewhere. Remember earlier in the year the SNP, LibDems and various other parties had tabled one which the speaker was ignoring, to put pressure on Corbyn.
> What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
The map is truly... fascinating.
I, for one, anticipate the triumphant storming of the Isle of Wight by the forces of eco-socialism with giddy excitement.
I mean, come off it!
> https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1134219806671028229
>
>
>
> I quite like Layla Moran but from a partisan perspective I was hoping for Swinson as I think she might be more appealing to Tories (than Layla anyway)
>
> Edit: I understand Layla isn't running anyway...
Layla overturned a CON 10k majority at GE17
> Non-snarky question for @TheJezziah and any of our other Corbyn advocates: Can you imagine a situation where you might say, "OK, Jeremy isn't working out, we need somebody else"? How low would Labour have to poll, for instance?
Yeah can definitely imagine such a situation. My view is the 2017 result earned him the right to another crack at a general election. If he can't form a govt after that then it's time to move on.
Going before then? I don't have a huge amount of faith in polls without a date for an election.
I remember feeling confident Ed M was leading and feeling despondent that Corbyn was going to get crushed.
What would be fairly damning in my view is if other (non-tory) parties start overtaking Labour. So this latest poll result is definitely concerning.
For example my guess based on my impressions is if you asked for a preference from Conservatives Swinson would beat Layla and the reverse with Labour. Although that is just based on my own impressions I haven't seen any polling on it.
Flavible makes interesting maps quickly, but track record is a bit thin. Not too far out on this projection made eve of Euro-poll.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1131518309860597761?s=19
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > >
> > > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > > >
> > >
> > > They will on these numbers.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> > >
> >
> > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
> >
> > SNP 57 seats (+22)
> > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> > Con 0 seats (-13)
> > Lab 0 seats (-7)
> >
> > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
> >
> > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
>
> What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
If that's accurate, bearing in mind the rules don't change significantly next year so the current two-tiers are almost certain to be maintained, if you could find a market on him being top 6 or scoring X points could be worth a look.
But that's a big 'if'.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > >
> > > > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > They will on these numbers.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> > > >
> > >
> > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
> > >
> > > SNP 57 seats (+22)
> > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> > > Con 0 seats (-13)
> > > Lab 0 seats (-7)
> > >
> > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
> > >
> > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> >
> > What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
>
> It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
Find it difficult to believe the Flavible projection; it would require a big shift in habits, although of course, once broken.........
And the Alliance once led the polls IIRC. Much good did it do them when push came to shove, although there was the little matter of the Falklands.
And, if I could comment on the geographical divide, it appears to be NE vs SW, and, again IIRC, there are clear and ancient genetic differences between 'traditional' residents of those areas.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
>
> The map is truly... fascinating.
>
> I, for one, anticipate the triumphant storming of the Isle of Wight by the forces of eco-socialism with giddy excitement.
>
> I mean, come off it!
It’s a brave person who dismisses any political scenario nowadays with “come off it” (HY’s predictions excepted, obviously)
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > >
> > > > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > They will on these numbers.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> > > >
> > >
> > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
> > >
> > > SNP 57 seats (+22)
> > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> > > Con 0 seats (-13)
> > > Lab 0 seats (-7)
> > >
> > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
> > >
> > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> >
> > What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
>
> It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
And the Norwegians and many Danes are very anti-EU, too. Can we send these Vikings back home?
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > On this poll all 4 parties would be on 20 to 30% in Peterborough on UNS next week though the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
>
>
>
> It would be quite a feat for the LDs to go from 3.3% to victory in Peterborough. Who knows?
>
> They’ve got a much better record fighting by elections than Farage.
It is however rather late, and I don’t get the impression everything has been thrown at it in the way of previous successes. I haven’t had a single email asking me to go there. Rightly, the party was mostly focused on the Locals carrying through into the Euros, and its now too late to get a good ground game off the ground.
Whilst I absolutely trust that we would get many surprising results in this scenario, that one suggests that UNS does not apply...
And I really don’t believe the LDs could win Maidenhead when they are 31k votes behind and in 3rd place!
One thing that should petrify both Labour and the Conservatives is that the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will feed off each other: it’s a lot easier for two warring insurgent parties to sustain their relevance than for one to do so. This state of affairs might well endure and indeed intensify if the public decides that each is the best way of stopping the other.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1134338981393383424?s=19
Probably got my vote though. LDs do well with Scottish leaders.
Those who are strongly pro- or anti-EU can just stay with BP or the Lib Dems, and the two 'main' parties will find it difficult to change things. They either effectively let one of the 'smaller' parties dictate their policy and become a diet Coke option, or they try to maintain a more nuanced/divided approach, losing support in both directions.
This is one area where a new leader can make a critical difference. A new leader can make an argument and try to persuade people. May horrendously failed at this (as Hammond does on the economy. We've had lots of surprisingly good news, particularly on employment, and he only ever shows up to spread gloom).
That could change the state of play.
Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
Con 226
Lab 306
LD 30
TBP 12
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
NI `18
Lab 20 short of a majority government.
The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
> I find that Flavible projection a bit weird compared to the list of seats changing hands on Electoral Calculus e.g. the Brexit party gaining Stroud but failing to win Stoke North.
>
> And I really don’t believe the LDs could win Maidenhead when they are 31k votes behind and in 3rd place!
MRP models suggest Maidenhead is the seat with the most voters in the whole country who voted Tory in 2017 and Remain in 2016. It would be big, but not completely crazy on these kind of vote shares.
> Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
I suspect the sun is now setting on Corbyn and momentum. Just can't see them coming back from this.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
>
> I suspect the sun is now setting on Corbyn and momentum. Just can't see them coming back from this.
Wishful thinking. They will not give up their grip on the party. They have worked for decades to get to this point. They would rather lose elections than let go. There is always someone else to blame for their failings.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
>
> I suspect the sun is now setting on Corbyn and momentum. Just can't see them coming back from this.
Don't bet on it. Cancer has a nasty habit of dodging treatment. They won't stop until Labour is dead. We need to amputate them from the body.
> Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
She hasn't ruled out a coalition with The Brexit Party either. Each equally likely.
> Mr. Nashe, even if Corbyn goes, that might just mean McDonnell gets in. And he'd stand a better chance of becoming PM.
None of the cancer cult will be PM. There aren't enough votes on "we support a soft Brexit that Brexit supporters don't consider to be Brexit"
> > @ThomasNashe said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
> >
> > I suspect the sun is now setting on Corbyn and momentum. Just can't see them coming back from this.
>
> Wishful thinking. They will not give up their grip on the party. They have worked for decades to get to this point. They would rather lose elections than let go. There is always someone else to blame for their failings.
Jonathan's right and as they won't leave the Party the Party will have to leave them. Time for CHUK The Greens and the Lib Dems to organise. Labour are a lost cause. When 3/4 of the MP's voted against the leadership and the leadership stayed on the party became a dead parrot.