> @StuartDickson said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @Roger said: > > > > > John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns. > > > > > > > > With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldozer the Tory rubble and start again from scratch. > > > > No one would pretend that they are in a happy place but I still think it was worse in the dog days of IDS's leadership before Cameron and Osborne rebuilt the brand. It can be done again with the right leadership and Labour being in meltdown too helps. > > Nope. Quite the opposite. The Labour meltdown is actually a big hindrance to a Conservative recovery. You guys *need* the Labour bogeyman in order to scare folk into voting Tory. > > The Hague/IDS/Howard years were indeed dog days, but back then you were all still munching from the same Pedigree Chum bowl. Now you’re all over the place like you just saw 100 foxes and have to chase every single one of them.
I agree. Brexit isn't actually a conservative project; its the misplaced and misguided hankering for the past that has led them astray.
Many Conservative supporters see themselves as essentially non-political, motivated mostly by dislike and fear of Labour. And, to a lesser extent, vice versa. They both suit each other as opponents, and they have maintained their cosy cartel for far too long.
> @isam said: > > @DavidL said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really. > > > > > > > > > > > > You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent. > > > > > > Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so. > > > > Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work. > > > > If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s. > > > > Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting. > > It seems PB advice to both Con & Lab is to lean towards revoke or referendum
No, the Conservatives’ path is clear: they’ve made their choice, they need a Brexit PDQ.
They have to accept that will exclude them from vast numbers of voters for a generation, a generation that is much younger than their voter base and which represents how the electorate is likely to evolve. But the die was cast on that some time back.
Those Conservatives who regard this as a disaster will need to get out.
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for the Tories. Corbyn can see that. That's why he won't help them take it off the table. And by themselves the Tories are unable to.
Labour are forked on Brexit every bit as much as the Tories. As DavidL points out above, they have to move the agenda towards their traditional policy interests to avoid losing support to the LibDems.
> @DavidL said: > > @DavidL said: > > > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world. > > > > > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective. > > > > > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives. > > > > > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really. > > > > You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent. > > Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
Detaching from the habit of "always" voting Tory or Labour takes time. Every election surge by one of the minor parties helps get more people out of the habit. We can only hope we are reaching breaking point, if not in the way Farage imagined.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Foxy said: > > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me. > > It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite. > > My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode. > > What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line. >
The clear line is that the country needs a genuinely liberal, open minded and internationalist party to take on the forces of conservatism and nationalism, and the Labour Party isn't it.
It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
> No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
So what do you think of the ramped up Privatisation and magnetization of the NHS in Blair's government? Did that destroy Labour's credibility?
> No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
Labour are forked on Brexit every bit as much as the Tories. As DavidL points out above, they have to move the agenda towards their traditional policy interests to avoid losing support to the LibDems.
They can't. the electorate has moved on.
Mr Corbyn’s case in Wales was, on the face of it, a perfectly reasonable call for unity after Brexit. It is easy to share his fear that “we could all retreat to our respective side of the argument and let bitterness drive us apart. We could allow ourselves to be defined only as Remainers or Leavers, labels that meant nothing to us only a few years ago.” Yet that might just be exactly the politics into which we are emerging.
The 2016 referendum was the most significant political event in half a century, not just for Brexit but for its effect on political identity. Being defined by Remain and Leave is exactly what has happened. Party affiliations have weakened quickly; more people have a strong allegiance to their vote in 2016 than to a party. The British are following a path that has been charted in most European nations and the US; we are voting much more with our cultural tribes and less with our economic interests.
This poses a fundamental challenge to the way that Mr Corbyn understands politics.
> @kle4 said: > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot. > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution. > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide. > > So screwed, all of us
Maybe. However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats? Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for the Tories. Corbyn can see that. That's why he won't help them take it off the table. And by themselves the Tories are unable to.
Labour are forked on Brexit every bit as much as the Tories. As DavidL points out above, they have to move the agenda towards their traditional policy interests to avoid losing support to the LibDems.
It has only been in the last month that the lds have surged thanks to their remain position. If labour did go full on remain sure not everyone would come back, thered becsydpiciob, but why would most not come back?
> It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
>
> But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
>
> They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
>
> So screwed, all of us
Maybe.
However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats?
Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
But that doesn't help anything pass. There arent enough Tories for any option.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > @JackW said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely" > > > > > > ................................................................................................................... > > > > > > By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral. > > > > With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation. > > > > Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place. > > Yes Brexit Party 1st LDs 2nd more likely
Fewer than one in seven of the electorate bothered to turn out for the Brexit Party. The by-election will illustrate the extent to which the Euro non-voters have different views and whether both BXP and LibDems can carry a Euro election protest vote at least across into a Westminster protest vote. I'd expect Tories in particular to be less willing to defect when it comes to electing an MP.
> @DougSeal said: > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
Total newb.
I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
> @logical_song said: > > @kle4 said: > > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot. > > > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution. > > > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide. > > > > So screwed, all of us > > Maybe. > However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats? > Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD.
The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs
> @Alistair said: > And then the whole independence referendum journey was a joy. > > No it wasn't the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action. > > No, it didn't. > > > > It did.
I was living in Scotland at the time. It felt that way to me. No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
> @geoffw said: > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world. > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective. > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives. > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really. > > Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that. > > > Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for the Tories. Corbyn can see that. That's why he won't help them take it off the table. And by themselves the Tories are unable to. > > Labour are forked on Brexit every bit as much as the Tories. As DavidL points out above, they have to move the agenda towards their traditional policy interests to avoid losing support to the LibDems.
The ships sailed . It’s now a culture war as it is in the USA.
The defining issue is Brexit not traditional policy interests . Corbyn can keep droning on about bringing the country together , it’s not happening .
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 226 > > > > > > > Lab 306 > > > > > > > LD 30 > > > > > > > TBP 12 > > > > > > > Green 1 > > > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > > > SNP 53 > > > > > > > NI `18 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority. > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first. > > > > > > > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority > > > > > > A big "IF" in there! > > > > > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them. > > > > It all depends on Tory voters. > > > > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week > > I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality
Big G You still voted Tory in the European Parliament elections when they got just 9%, 32% of voters and a majority of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party then
> @HYUFD said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot. > > > > > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution. > > > > > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide. > > > > > > So screwed, all of us > > > > Maybe. > > However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats? > > Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP. > > Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD. > > The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs
I suspect the LibDem switchers are more likely to stick there in a GE. The LDs have a track record in parliamentary politics, and opposition to Brexit is rather more fundamental than quibbling over its flavour, whatever the headbangers might think.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 226 > > > > > > > Lab 306 > > > > > > > LD 30 > > > > > > > TBP 12 > > > > > > > Green 1 > > > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > > > SNP 53 > > > > > > > NI `18 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority. > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first. > > > > > > > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority > > > > > > A big "IF" in there! > > > > > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them. > > > > It all depends on Tory voters. > > > > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week > > I can see 80% of the Tory membership going to the Brexit party in that scenario. Indeed, some of them have infiltrated from the Brexit party in the first place. > > But I can't see a majority of ordinary decent Tory voters deserting the party for Farage. Some will but not most of them. You are in a better position to judge. What do you think?
I think most would, remember over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party last week and more for a Brexit Party if you include UKIP
> @StuartDickson said: > Re Peterborough by-election: > > I’d have thought that the Brexit Party GOTV operation will be weak, as starting from scratch; whereas the Lib Dems know what they are doing.
You need data to do that, though, and I don't see enough evidence that there's been an active campaign. The LDs chance rests entirely on the national poll surge, but P'Boro isn't the most fertile territory. LD activists would be better advised to go to Brecon and ferry voters to sign the recall petition there.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > > > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 226 > > > > > > > > > Lab 306 > > > > > > > > > LD 30 > > > > > > > > > TBP 12 > > > > > > > > > Green 1 > > > > > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > > > > > SNP 53 > > > > > > > > > NI `18 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first. > > > > > > > > > > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority > > > > > > > > A big "IF" in there! > > > > > > > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them. > > > > > > It all depends on Tory voters. > > > > > > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week > > > > I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality > > Big G You still voted Tory in the European Parliament elections when they got just 9%, 32% of voters and a majority of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party then
Then they should be disenfranchised from the members vote
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @logical_song said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot. > > > > > > > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution. > > > > > > > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide. > > > > > > > > So screwed, all of us > > > > > > Maybe. > > > However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats? > > > Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP. > > > > Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD. > > > > The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs > > I suspect the LibDem switchers are more likely to stick there in a GE. The LDs have a track record in parliamentary politics, and opposition to Brexit is rather more fundamental than quibbling over its flavour, whatever the headbangers might think.
I will most likely be voting LD at the next GE, as I did in the Euros. I have been a Tory member for over 20 years, including holding executive positions in our constituency party. I believed in the party, as I believed it supported business and the economy and encouraged aspiration.It will take me a long time to forgive what the extreme end has done to business and the country through this stupid and irrational hatred of the EU.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > @isam said: > > > > > > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov > > > > Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party". > > Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted?
YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error.
> And then the whole independence referendum journey was a joy.
>
> No it wasn't the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action.
>
> No, it didn't.
>
>
>
> It did.
I was living in Scotland at the time. It felt that way to me.
No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
For me, the biggest risk is the reunification of Ireland and independence of Scotland, as both are clearly moving very strongly against the political mood in England and Wales. Good for the Scots and Irish, but it would be a backward step for England, leaving us in the hands of the swivel eyes loons, at least for the near future.
No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
Yes, and no.
Political engagement went through the roof. Good.
Knowledge went backwards. Like Brexit, "expert" is a dirty word in Scottish politics now.
I had a conversation with a Zoomer who earnestly believed that barter would be a good economic model for Scotland post Indy.
Debate is good. Rational. sensible, factual debate is absent.
> @isam said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > > > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov > > > > > > > > Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party". > > > > > > Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted? > > > > YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error. > > So they shouldn’t prompt them?
No, they should prompt for them - and fix the error in their coding that overstated them.
That poll suggests that sadly the Conservative Party, like the Labour Party has had its membership completely overtaken by rabid extremists. Moderates have been routed. The broad church Conservative Party that I joined is no more. Very sad for the country.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Foxy said: > > > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me. > > > > It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite. > > > > My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode. > > > > What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line. > > So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
As bitter as some traditionalists may have been at New Labour there were still things to celebrate - funding for schools, hospitals, minimum wage. The problem for the Lib Dems wasn't just tuition fees - they were seen as the enablers of a Tory agenda. All for a sniff of power. I accept that is merely the perception.
Sky breaking news on another anti semitism row today with video showing Peter Wilsman accusing the Israeli Embassy of being behind the claims of anti semitism in labour
> @Foxy said: > For me, the biggest risk is the reunification of Ireland and independence of Scotland, as both are clearly moving very strongly against the political mood in England and Wales. Good for the Scots and Irish, but it would be a backward step for England, leaving us in the hands of the swivel eyes loons, at least for the near future.
Tbh I'm not really sure that you (and therefore we) aren't already in the hands of the swivel eyed loons.
> @Pulpstar said: > Anecdotal : All my remain friends have headed Lib Dem and Green. Block vote move in the office from Tories to Brexit party.
I wonder what the tipping point % is for the BXP to with most seats?
In a four way they win the fewest seats because their vote is so spread out but also have the potential to dominate because of that same reason if they lead.
Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
> @kle4 said: > > @Foxy said: > > > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me. > > > > It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite. > > > > My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode. > > > > What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line. > > So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm... > > People arent rational.
> @FrankBooth said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me. > > > > > > > > It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite. > > > > > > > > My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode. > > > > > > > > What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line. > > > > So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm... > > As bitter as some traditionalists may have been at New Labour there were still things to celebrate - funding for schools, hospitals, minimum wage. The problem for the Lib Dems wasn't just tuition fees - they were seen as the enablers of a Tory agenda. All for a sniff of power. I accept that is merely the perception.
I agree New Labour did many good things , and Blair won three elections which is three more than Corbyn will ever win.
There’s no point Labour trying to continue to attack the Lib Dems on their coalition , that’s now old news.
> @Scott_P said: > Tbh I'm not really sure that you (and therefore we) aren't already in the hands of the swivel eyed loons. > > Scotland is definitely in the hands of the swivel eyed loons, but their grip is slipping...
Aye. You must be much encouraged that your fellow campaigner against Scottish indy did so well in the Euros.
> @Scott_P said: > No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy. > > Yes, and no. > > Political engagement went through the roof. Good. > > Knowledge went backwards. Like Brexit, "expert" is a dirty word in Scottish politics now. > > I had a conversation with a Zoomer who earnestly believed that barter would be a good economic model for Scotland post Indy. > > Debate is good. Rational. sensible, factual debate is absent.
"zoomer"? rolls eyes.
I don't recognise what you're saying. I went to public meetings organised by local SNP branches where there were speakers giving talks on economics, climate change, etc that were critical of that party's policies. The manner of respectful and intelligent questions blew me away. That's not to say I haven't met idiots too. There's no cure for that, they are found anywhere.
I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
> @saddo said: > Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
> @TheKitchenCabinet said: > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
1) They came first, by quite some margin. 2) Only 2 overstated their vote share by more than margin of error (1 had below their share by more than margin of error). Net then only 1 was more than margin of error over. 3) Differential turnout with Remainers turning out more was a major factor.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, I'm saying the pollsters were remarkably spot on with the Brexit Party.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @TheKitchenCabinet said: > > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party. > > Too late for this election and it will not happen
I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them?
I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
> > Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
2) Only 2 overstated their vote share by more than margin of error (1 had below their share by more than margin of error). Net then only 1 was more than margin of error over.
3) Differential turnout with Remainers turning out more was a major factor.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, I'm saying the pollsters were remarkably spot on with the Brexit Party.
Neither am I, I just thought people who love investigating polls might have mentioned it or found it interesting if they hadn’t noticed. The last Euro YouGov baffles me... all the other parties are more or less right, and BXP are 6 too high?! 🤔
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @TheKitchenCabinet said: > > > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party. > > > > Too late for this election and it will not happen > > I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them? > > I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
Upping it from 2 to 5 might help inspire confidence, but only a couple of the 12 (13?) candidates declared would fail, and they would have gone swiftly after the first round anyway.
So I'm not resolutely opposed, but I wouldn't overplay the significance, compared to say, putting 3 (or more) candidates on the Members' ballot. That would be a lot more significant (with or without a transferable vote or preference system)
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Sky breaking news on another anti semitism row today with video showing Peter Wilsman accusing the Israeli Embassy of being behind the claims of anti semitism in labour > > It just does not go away
Labour will have t oboot out another high profile name for voting Lib Dem or Green then.
Beats actually, you know taking action against the anti semites.
> @TheKitchenCabinet said: > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
That's problematic. They couldn't use FPTP for a 4-candidate election, since the winner might only get 30% and suffer from questions about their legitimacy. And they probably wouldn't want to use some sort of PR either, since people think that favours the milder candidates. They could have a 2-stage election, I suppose.
> @logical_song said: > > @isam said: > > > YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error. > > > > So they shouldn’t prompt them? > > No, they should prompt for them - and fix the error in their coding that overstated them.
YouGov in part overstated the BXP because relatively few of their voters waited until the last few days before deciding who to vote for. 28% of Brexit Party voters made up their mind "in the last few days" (including polling day) compared to an average of 42% (and 51% of Conservative voters, 45% of LD voters and 59% of Greens.)
So it wasn't really a YouGov "error". It's more that opinion in the Euro Elections swung slightly against the Brexit Party between the 19th-21st May (when YouGov did their final fieldwork) and polling day on 23rd May. The evidence is that YouGov's poll was pretty well spot on in measuring opinion at the point it was conducted.
YouGov have got themselves in some hot water, I see. I suppose that doesn't matter too much as long as they change the approach for future polls. The BXP bods who are whining this morning will soon change their tune once the polls start showing them in the lead.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @TheKitchenCabinet said: > > > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party. > > > > Too late for this election and it will not happen > > I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them? > > I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
The system will be severely tested it ever the members choose the MPs' second choice. It would be thrown at them in the House time and again. Tories would be mad to allow the possibility of the parliamentary party's fourth choice becoming PM.
So are people on here leaning towards Jo Swinson or Ed Davey so far? I'm leaning towards Ed Davey, Jo just hasn't impressed me when I've seen her on TV recently, her speaking style comes off a bit waffly and doesn't really hammer the points home well. Ed has been better on that front, and I also suspect he will be able to peel off more tory remainer voters than Jo.
> > YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error.
> >
> > So they shouldn’t prompt them?
>
> No, they should prompt for them - and fix the error in their coding that overstated them.
YouGov in part overstated the BXP because relatively few of their voters waited until the last few days before deciding who to vote for. 28% of Brexit Party voters made up their mind "in the last few days" (including polling day) compared to an average of 42% (and 51% of Conservative voters, 45% of LD voters and 59% of Greens.)
So it wasn't really a YouGov "error". It's more that opinion in the Euro Elections swung slightly against the Brexit Party between the 19th-21st May (when YouGov did their final fieldwork) and polling day on 23rd May. The evidence is that YouGov's poll was pretty well spot on in measuring opinion at the point it was conducted.
Source: Lord Ashcroft exit polling.
Must difficult to poll for a party with no history who won their first election by a distance to be fair.
No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
Yes, and no.
Political engagement went through the roof. Good.
Knowledge went backwards. Like Brexit, "expert" is a dirty word in Scottish politics now.
I had a conversation with a Zoomer who earnestly believed that barter would be a good economic model for Scotland post Indy.
Debate is good. Rational. sensible, factual debate is absent.
Do you think just engaging with people online rather than being in the country affects your point of view?
Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work.
If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s.
Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting.
It seems PB advice to both Con & Lab is to lean towards revoke or referendum
PB advice is to lean towards the PBers desired outcome.....
Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Any negative effect of this on the BP polling figures was almost certainly dwarfed by the positive delta on their real vote as a consequence of that 'in your face' right facing arrow in their logo on the Euro ballot paper. It steered large numbers of the undecideds and the unwary towards voting for Farage's party, in many cases accidentally.
What was the net effect of this? Did it impact on MEP seat numbers? We will never know.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858 > > Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris... > > Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Any negative effect of this on the BP polling figures was almost certainly dwarfed by the positive delta on their real vote as a consequence of that 'in your face' right facing arrow in their logo on the Euro ballot paper. It steered large numbers of the undecideds and the unwary towards voting for Farage's party, in many cases accidentally.
What was the net effect of this? Did it impact on MEP seat numbers? We will never know.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858 > > Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris... > > Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
I'm sure the Chancellor of Oxford (like Boris, a Balliol man) is deeply stung by your criticism of his career...
I wouldn't worry about the poll if I was the Brexit party, the remaining Tory vote is still split 3:1 leave-remain so plenty of low hanging fruit for them to pick up yet.
In addition leave seats will have a lower turnout than remain in the next GE so there should be a leave efficiency bias in play at equal shares.
Not prompting for minor parties makes sense, the bigger issue I would say is that prompting for the LDs right now in this febrile atmosphere may be contributing to their inflated VI.
> @Paristonda said: > So are people on here leaning towards Jo Swinson or Ed Davey so far? I'm leaning towards Ed Davey, Jo just hasn't impressed me when I've seen her on TV recently, her speaking style comes off a bit waffly and doesn't really hammer the points home well. Ed has been better on that front, and I also suspect he will be able to peel off more tory remainer voters than Jo.
I saw Question Time yesterday and think she comes across fine, my concern is I still have no idea what her views are beyond being remain and supposedly "liberal". This is a problem with most of the LD party (Norman Lamb a good exception who champions his causes).
What does she care about? Beyond remain what would she do for the country? Is it just continuity Blair/Cameron (which whilst I would take over the alternatives is not the answer) or is there something more to her? What would she do differently on social care, housing, environment, creating a better economy?
On tuition fees, Layla has written a good article on these yesterday.
A good article? Are you mad? For a start, she seems to think that Phillip Augar is a Conservative politician. And what's with this 'I am angry' nonsense? The Augur proposals are a serious attempt to improve things, but it's a complex set of trade-offs. Shouting 'Tory con-tricks' just shows how unserious she is.
If you want to read a good article on the subject, here it is:
Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
One of the great what-ifs of modern British politics. Had Patten won Bath, Major would have made him CoE. So how would ERM membership have panned out? Patten almost certainly wouldn't have screwed up the diplomacy with our European partners in the way Lamont did. So perhaps no Black Wednesday, no Blair landslide, no Iraq invasion, no mayors of London, no Boris, no Brexit.
> @Stark_Dawning said: > One of the great what-ifs of modern British politics. Had Patten won Bath, Major would have made him CoE. So how would ERM membership have panned out? Patten almost certainly wouldn't have screwed up the diplomacy with our European partners in the way Lamont did. So perhaps no Black Wednesday, no Blair landslide, no Iraq invasion, no mayors of London, no Boris, no Brexit.
That is one of the funniest things I've read on here in a long time.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > On tuition fees, Layla has written a good article on these yesterday. > > > A good article? Are you mad? For a start, she seems to think that Phillip Augar is a Conservative politician. And what's with this 'I am angry' nonsense? The Augur proposals are a serious attempt to improve things, but it's a complex set of trade-offs. Shouting 'Tory con-tricks' just shows how unserious she is. > > If you want to read a good article on the subject, here it is: > > https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2019/05/editorial-comment--the-augar-report-heralds-the-end-of-student--/
> @Stark_Dawning said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858 > > > > > > Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris... > > > > Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees" > > One of the great what-ifs of modern British politics. Had Patten won Bath, Major would have made him CoE. So how would ERM membership have panned out? Patten almost certainly wouldn't have screwed up the diplomacy with our European partners in the way Lamont did. So perhaps no Black Wednesday, no Blair landslide, no Iraq invasion, no mayors of London, no Boris, no Brexit.
Nah, he'd have just been even more determined to keep us in the ERM which would have meant interest rates would have gone even higher, more families would have been thrown to the wolves in their mad desire to peg us to the ERM and Black Wednesday would have turned into Black Thursday and Black Friday etc
Comments
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @Roger said:
> >
> > > John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
> >
> >
> >
> > With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldozer the Tory rubble and start again from scratch.
> >
> > No one would pretend that they are in a happy place but I still think it was worse in the dog days of IDS's leadership before Cameron and Osborne rebuilt the brand. It can be done again with the right leadership and Labour being in meltdown too helps.
>
> Nope. Quite the opposite. The Labour meltdown is actually a big hindrance to a Conservative recovery. You guys *need* the Labour bogeyman in order to scare folk into voting Tory.
>
> The Hague/IDS/Howard years were indeed dog days, but back then you were all still munching from the same Pedigree Chum bowl. Now you’re all over the place like you just saw 100 foxes and have to chase every single one of them.
I agree. Brexit isn't actually a conservative project; its the misplaced and misguided hankering for the past that has led them astray.
Many Conservative supporters see themselves as essentially non-political, motivated mostly by dislike and fear of Labour. And, to a lesser extent, vice versa. They both suit each other as opponents, and they have maintained their cosy cartel for far too long.
I'd imagine there would be some rather surprising results.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > > @DavidL said:
>
> >
>
> > > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
>
> >
>
> > Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
>
>
>
> Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work.
>
>
>
> If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s.
>
>
>
> Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting.
>
> It seems PB advice to both Con & Lab is to lean towards revoke or referendum
No, the Conservatives’ path is clear: they’ve made their choice, they need a Brexit PDQ.
They have to accept that will exclude them from vast numbers of voters for a generation, a generation that is much younger than their voter base and which represents how the electorate is likely to evolve. But the die was cast on that some time back.
Those Conservatives who regard this as a disaster will need to get out.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
>
> >
>
> > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> >
>
> > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> >
>
> > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
>
>
>
> You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
>
> Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
Detaching from the habit of "always" voting Tory or Labour takes time. Every election surge by one of the minor parties helps get more people out of the habit. We can only hope we are reaching breaking point, if not in the way Farage imagined.
Con 20.8%, 140 seats
Lab 15.2, 147
LD 25.4, 141
BX 22.6, 144
> > @Foxy said:
> > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
>
> It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
>
> My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
>
> What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
>
The clear line is that the country needs a genuinely liberal, open minded and internationalist party to take on the forces of conservatism and nationalism, and the Labour Party isn't it.
But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
So screwed, all of us
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1134366127105236992
Mr Corbyn’s case in Wales was, on the face of it, a perfectly reasonable call for unity after Brexit. It is easy to share his fear that “we could all retreat to our respective side of the argument and let bitterness drive us apart. We could allow ourselves to be defined only as Remainers or Leavers, labels that meant nothing to us only a few years ago.” Yet that might just be exactly the politics into which we are emerging.
The 2016 referendum was the most significant political event in half a century, not just for Brexit but for its effect on political identity. Being defined by Remain and Leave is exactly what has happened. Party affiliations have weakened quickly; more people have a strong allegiance to their vote in 2016 than to a party. The British are following a path that has been charted in most European nations and the US; we are voting much more with our cultural tribes and less with our economic interests.
This poses a fundamental challenge to the way that Mr Corbyn understands politics.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-has-left-corbyn-a-politician-out-of-time-rngrk6rn7
> It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
>
> But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
>
> They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
>
> So screwed, all of us
Maybe.
However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats?
Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
> > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely"
> > >
> > > ...................................................................................................................
> > >
> > > By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
> >
> > With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation.
> >
> > Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place.
>
> Yes Brexit Party 1st LDs 2nd more likely
Fewer than one in seven of the electorate bothered to turn out for the Brexit Party. The by-election will illustrate the extent to which the Euro non-voters have different views and whether both BXP and LibDems can carry a Euro election protest vote at least across into a Westminster protest vote. I'd expect Tories in particular to be less willing to defect when it comes to electing an MP.
> Another great morning for LibDems as Len comes out fighting over LEXIT:
>
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1134366127105236992
For the LibDems, most publicity is good publicity. I am sure flowers are in the post to Len, Alastair and others.
> I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
Total newb.
I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
I’d have thought that the Brexit Party GOTV operation will be weak, as starting from scratch; whereas the Lib Dems know what they are doing.
> > @kle4 said:
> > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
> >
> > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
> >
> > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
> >
> > So screwed, all of us
>
> Maybe.
> However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats?
> Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD.
The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1134369504702676992
Doesn't even surprise now does it?
> And then the whole independence referendum journey was a joy.
>
> No it wasn't the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action.
>
> No, it didn't.
>
>
>
> It did.
I was living in Scotland at the time. It felt that way to me.
No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
> I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
>
> The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
>
> Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that.
>
>
> Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for the Tories. Corbyn can see that. That's why he won't help them take it off the table. And by themselves the Tories are unable to.
>
> Labour are forked on Brexit every bit as much as the Tories. As DavidL points out above, they have to move the agenda towards their traditional policy interests to avoid losing support to the LibDems.
The ships sailed . It’s now a culture war as it is in the USA.
The defining issue is Brexit not traditional policy interests . Corbyn can keep droning on about bringing the country together , it’s not happening .
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1134372173932564480
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > @Barnesian said:
> > >
> > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Con 226
> > >
> > > > Lab 306
> > >
> > > > LD 30
> > >
> > > > TBP 12
> > >
> > > > Green 1
> > >
> > > > PC 4
> > >
> > > > SNP 53
> > >
> > > > NI `18
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
> > >
> > >
> > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
> > >
> > >
> > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
> > >
> > > A big "IF" in there!
> > >
> > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
> >
> > It all depends on Tory voters.
> >
> > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
>
> I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality
Big G You still voted Tory in the European Parliament elections when they got just 9%, 32% of voters and a majority of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party then
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
> > >
> > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
> > >
> > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
> > >
> > > So screwed, all of us
> >
> > Maybe.
> > However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats?
> > Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
>
> Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD.
>
> The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs
I suspect the LibDem switchers are more likely to stick there in a GE. The LDs have a track record in parliamentary politics, and opposition to Brexit is rather more fundamental than quibbling over its flavour, whatever the headbangers might think.
> > @Barnesian said:
>
> > > @Barnesian said:
>
> >
>
> > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Con 226
>
> >
>
> > > Lab 306
>
> >
>
> > > LD 30
>
> >
>
> > > TBP 12
>
> >
>
> > > Green 1
>
> >
>
> > > PC 4
>
> >
>
> > > SNP 53
>
> >
>
> > > NI `18
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
>
> >
>
> > A big "IF" in there!
>
> >
>
> > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
>
>
>
> It all depends on Tory voters.
>
>
>
> If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
>
> I can see 80% of the Tory membership going to the Brexit party in that scenario. Indeed, some of them have infiltrated from the Brexit party in the first place.
>
> But I can't see a majority of ordinary decent Tory voters deserting the party for Farage. Some will but not most of them. You are in a better position to judge. What do you think?
I think most would, remember over 50% of 2017 Tory voters voted Brexit Party last week and more for a Brexit Party if you include UKIP
> Re Peterborough by-election:
>
> I’d have thought that the Brexit Party GOTV operation will be weak, as starting from scratch; whereas the Lib Dems know what they are doing.
You need data to do that, though, and I don't see enough evidence that there's been an active campaign. The LDs chance rests entirely on the national poll surge, but P'Boro isn't the most fertile territory. LD activists would be better advised to go to Brecon and ferry voters to sign the recall petition there.
It will be a landslide...
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > >
> > > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Con 226
> > > >
> > > > > Lab 306
> > > >
> > > > > LD 30
> > > >
> > > > > TBP 12
> > > >
> > > > > Green 1
> > > >
> > > > > PC 4
> > > >
> > > > > SNP 53
> > > >
> > > > > NI `18
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
> > > >
> > > > A big "IF" in there!
> > > >
> > > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
> > >
> > > It all depends on Tory voters.
> > >
> > > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
> >
> > I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality
>
> Big G You still voted Tory in the European Parliament elections when they got just 9%, 32% of voters and a majority of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party then
Then they should be disenfranchised from the members vote
https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1134370723697438720?s=21
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @logical_song said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > It really is terrible for a Brexit resolution that BXP and the LDs have gone past the big two. Maybe, if we were very lucky, if it was one or the other it would have spooked one of the big two enough to agree something, anything, to stop the rot.
> > > >
> > > > But with both surging both the big two are either paralysed or will feel the need to pursue the extreme positions even more, eliminating what was already a low chance of a resolution.
> > > >
> > > > They will really not want a GE, either of them, but how does government continue? They can ignore legislating for the summer but come September/October theres nowhere to hide.
> > > >
> > > > So screwed, all of us
> > >
> > > Maybe.
> > > However, the Tories might just stop being so scared of Farage and start being a bit more scared of the LibDems. Aren't the LibDems a bigger threat to actually win Tory seats?
> > > Also Labour MPs in Leave voting areas might become a bit less worried about TBP.
> >
> > Yougov has 38% of 2017 Tories voting Brexit Party today, only 11% voting LD.
> >
> > The Tories would still likely lose more seats to the Brexit Party than LDs
>
> I suspect the LibDem switchers are more likely to stick there in a GE. The LDs have a track record in parliamentary politics, and opposition to Brexit is rather more fundamental than quibbling over its flavour, whatever the headbangers might think.
I will most likely be voting LD at the next GE, as I did in the Euros. I have been a Tory member for over 20 years, including holding executive positions in our constituency party. I believed in the party, as I believed it supported business and the economy and encouraged aspiration.It will take me a long time to forgive what the extreme end has done to business and the country through this stupid and irrational hatred of the EU.
> > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> > > @isam said:
> > >
> > > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov
> >
> > Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party".
>
> Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted?
YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error.
South :
Lib Dems 34% in London, Labour 24%
Lib Dems 32% Rest of South, Tories and Brexit both on 21%
Midlands & Wales
Brexit 29%, Tories 21%, Labour 19%
North
Labour 29%, Brexit 26%
> https://mobile.twitter.com/eu_eeas/status/933657281979404288
Once we've left maybe we should join this.
Political engagement went through the roof. Good.
Knowledge went backwards. Like Brexit, "expert" is a dirty word in Scottish politics now.
I had a conversation with a Zoomer who earnestly believed that barter would be a good economic model for Scotland post Indy.
Debate is good. Rational. sensible, factual debate is absent.
> > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
>
> > > > @isam said:
>
> > > >
>
> > > > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov
>
> > >
>
> > > Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party".
>
> >
>
> > Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted?
>
>
>
> YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error.
>
> So they shouldn’t prompt them?
No, they should prompt for them - and fix the error in their coding that overstated them.
> https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1134147973175291909
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1134372173932564480
>
>
>
> Every day brings a new example of how mind destroying the Brexit virus can be. This poll is the latest example.
That poll suggests that sadly the Conservative Party, like the Labour Party has had its membership completely overtaken by rabid extremists. Moderates have been routed. The broad church Conservative Party that I joined is no more. Very sad for the country.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
>
>
>
> It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
>
>
>
> My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
>
>
>
> What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
>
> So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
As bitter as some traditionalists may have been at New Labour there were still things to celebrate - funding for schools, hospitals, minimum wage. The problem for the Lib Dems wasn't just tuition fees - they were seen as the enablers of a Tory agenda. All for a sniff of power. I accept that is merely the perception.
It just does not go away
> For me, the biggest risk is the reunification of Ireland and independence of Scotland, as both are clearly moving very strongly against the political mood in England and Wales. Good for the Scots and Irish, but it would be a backward step for England, leaving us in the hands of the swivel eyes loons, at least for the near future.
Tbh I'm not really sure that you (and therefore we) aren't already in the hands of the swivel eyed loons.
> > @nunuone said:
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/eu_eeas/status/933657281979404288
>
> Once we've left maybe we should join this.
Lol.
> @Pulpstar said:
> Anecdotal : All my remain friends have headed Lib Dem and Green. Block vote move in the office from Tories to Brexit party.
I wonder what the tipping point % is for the BXP to with most seats?
In a four way they win the fewest seats because their vote is so spread out but also have the potential to dominate because of that same reason if they lead.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1134147973175291909
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1134372173932564480
> >
> >
> >
> > Every day brings a new example of how mind destroying the Brexit virus can be. This poll is the latest example.
>
> That poll suggests that sadly the Conservative Party, like the Labour Party has had its membership completely overtaken by rabid extremists. Moderates have been routed. The broad church Conservative Party that I joined is no more. Very sad for the country.
I share your concern and only hope that the Brexit Party voting members are expelled
I remain a member but it is not unconditional, neither is it guaranteed I will be a member when the vote comes round for the GE
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
>
>
>
> It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
>
>
>
> My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
>
>
>
> What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
>
> So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
>
> People arent rational.
Labour bots aren't people.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
> >
> >
> >
> > It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
> >
> >
> >
> > My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
> >
> >
> >
> > What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
> >
> > So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
>
> As bitter as some traditionalists may have been at New Labour there were still things to celebrate - funding for schools, hospitals, minimum wage. The problem for the Lib Dems wasn't just tuition fees - they were seen as the enablers of a Tory agenda. All for a sniff of power. I accept that is merely the perception.
I agree New Labour did many good things , and Blair won three elections which is three more than Corbyn will ever win.
There’s no point Labour trying to continue to attack the Lib Dems on their coalition , that’s now old news.
Brexit trumps everything .
> Tbh I'm not really sure that you (and therefore we) aren't already in the hands of the swivel eyed loons.
>
> Scotland is definitely in the hands of the swivel eyed loons, but their grip is slipping...
Aye.
You must be much encouraged that your fellow campaigner against Scottish indy did so well in the Euros.
> No axe to grind on independence, I think there are merits and drawbacks. But the political engagement and knowledge went through the roof. And that's what you need for a functioning democracy.
>
> Yes, and no.
>
> Political engagement went through the roof. Good.
>
> Knowledge went backwards. Like Brexit, "expert" is a dirty word in Scottish politics now.
>
> I had a conversation with a Zoomer who earnestly believed that barter would be a good economic model for Scotland post Indy.
>
> Debate is good. Rational. sensible, factual debate is absent.
"zoomer"? rolls eyes.
I don't recognise what you're saying. I went to public meetings organised by local SNP branches where there were speakers giving talks on economics, climate change, etc that were critical of that party's policies. The manner of respectful and intelligent questions blew me away.
That's not to say I haven't met idiots too. There's no cure for that, they are found anywhere.
> Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1134378719156539393?s=21
> I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
Too late for this election and it will not happen
> > @saddo said:
> > Given The Brexit Party was hidden behind "other" in the who would you vote for question, what would the result have been with the 4 leading parties presented as equal options? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
>
> https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1134378719156539393?s=21
1) They came first, by quite some margin.
2) Only 2 overstated their vote share by more than margin of error (1 had below their share by more than margin of error). Net then only 1 was more than margin of error over.
3) Differential turnout with Remainers turning out more was a major factor.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy, I'm saying the pollsters were remarkably spot on with the Brexit Party.
> > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
>
> Too late for this election and it will not happen
I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them?
I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
If they're going to elect a mendacious huckster, they might as well perjure themselves before doing so...
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
> >
> > Too late for this election and it will not happen
>
> I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them?
>
> I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
Upping it from 2 to 5 might help inspire confidence, but only a couple of the 12 (13?) candidates declared would fail, and they would have gone swiftly after the first round anyway.
So I'm not resolutely opposed, but I wouldn't overplay the significance, compared to say, putting 3 (or more) candidates on the Members' ballot. That would be a lot more significant (with or without a transferable vote or preference system)
> Sky breaking news on another anti semitism row today with video showing Peter Wilsman accusing the Israeli Embassy of being behind the claims of anti semitism in labour
>
> It just does not go away
Labour will have t oboot out another high profile name for voting Lib Dem or Green then.
Beats actually, you know taking action against the anti semites.
> I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
That's problematic. They couldn't use FPTP for a 4-candidate election, since the winner might only get 30% and suffer from questions about their legitimacy. And they probably wouldn't want to use some sort of PR either, since people think that favours the milder candidates. They could have a 2-stage election, I suppose.
> > @isam said:
>
> > YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except for the BXP vote, which was overstated beyond the margin of error.
> >
> > So they shouldn’t prompt them?
>
> No, they should prompt for them - and fix the error in their coding that overstated them.
YouGov in part overstated the BXP because relatively few of their voters waited until the last few days before deciding who to vote for. 28% of Brexit Party voters made up their mind "in the last few days" (including polling day) compared to an average of 42% (and 51% of Conservative voters, 45% of LD voters and 59% of Greens.)
So it wasn't really a YouGov "error". It's more that opinion in the Euro Elections swung slightly against the Brexit Party between the 19th-21st May (when YouGov did their final fieldwork) and polling day on 23rd May. The evidence is that YouGov's poll was pretty well spot on in measuring opinion at the point it was conducted.
Source: Lord Ashcroft exit polling.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > > I don't see how the Conservative party members are going to allow the MPs to get away with nominating two candidates to be chosen. In fact, there are already signs they won't. And I don't think MPs will be in a mood to push back, given the fear of deselections et al. I wouldn't be surprised if, say, 4 candidates were put to the party.
> >
> > Too late for this election and it will not happen
>
> I agree it won't happen, but isn't the 1922 Committee (who can change the rules) meeting on Monday to determine the rules? And potentially change them?
>
> I think more likely will be a change to require more than just 2 backers in order to stand in order to weed out the no-hopers, rather than an increase at end, but the 1922 can change the rules its not too late.
The system will be severely tested it ever the members choose the MPs' second choice. It would be thrown at them in the House time and again. Tories would be mad to allow the possibility of the parliamentary party's fourth choice becoming PM.
> https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858
Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
What was the net effect of this? Did it impact on MEP seat numbers? We will never know.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858
>
> Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
>
> Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
Ditto the ageing anti-EU Tory "grandees"...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/103060/pro-brexit-tory-peer-warns-insurrectionary
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858
>
> Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
>
> Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
I'm sure the Chancellor of Oxford (like Boris, a Balliol man) is deeply stung by your criticism of his career...
> https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1134373516252471296
I wouldn't worry about the poll if I was the Brexit party, the remaining Tory vote is still split 3:1 leave-remain so plenty of low hanging fruit for them to pick up yet.
In addition leave seats will have a lower turnout than remain in the next GE so there should be a leave efficiency bias in play at equal shares.
> So are people on here leaning towards Jo Swinson or Ed Davey so far? I'm leaning towards Ed Davey, Jo just hasn't impressed me when I've seen her on TV recently, her speaking style comes off a bit waffly and doesn't really hammer the points home well. Ed has been better on that front, and I also suspect he will be able to peel off more tory remainer voters than Jo.
I saw Question Time yesterday and think she comes across fine, my concern is I still have no idea what her views are beyond being remain and supposedly "liberal". This is a problem with most of the LD party (Norman Lamb a good exception who champions his causes).
What does she care about? Beyond remain what would she do for the country? Is it just continuity Blair/Cameron (which whilst I would take over the alternatives is not the answer) or is there something more to her? What would she do differently on social care, housing, environment, creating a better economy?
If you want to read a good article on the subject, here it is:
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2019/05/editorial-comment--the-augar-report-heralds-the-end-of-student--/
> https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1134386332451704832
My first thought was oh no, Sarwar is not the right person to lead SLab.
But then, who?
> One of the great what-ifs of modern British politics. Had Patten won Bath, Major would have made him CoE. So how would ERM membership have panned out? Patten almost certainly wouldn't have screwed up the diplomacy with our European partners in the way Lamont did. So perhaps no Black Wednesday, no Blair landslide, no Iraq invasion, no mayors of London, no Boris, no Brexit.
That is one of the funniest things I've read on here in a long time.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1134394972910825472
> On tuition fees, Layla has written a good article on these yesterday.
>
>
> A good article? Are you mad? For a start, she seems to think that Phillip Augar is a Conservative politician. And what's with this 'I am angry' nonsense? The Augur proposals are a serious attempt to improve things, but it's a complex set of trade-offs. Shouting 'Tory con-tricks' just shows how unserious she is.
>
> If you want to read a good article on the subject, here it is:
>
> https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2019/05/editorial-comment--the-augar-report-heralds-the-end-of-student--/
Watch out when Layla gets angry fists fly
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1134357989262073858
>
>
>
>
>
> Chris Pattern has always been a complete and utter waste of space so any criticism from him is good news for Boris...
>
>
>
> Ideally when he was thrown out of Bath by his constituents in 1992 we'd have never heard from him again... But unfortunately it never quite works out like that with these five or six ageing pro-EU Tory "grandees"
>
> One of the great what-ifs of modern British politics. Had Patten won Bath, Major would have made him CoE. So how would ERM membership have panned out? Patten almost certainly wouldn't have screwed up the diplomacy with our European partners in the way Lamont did. So perhaps no Black Wednesday, no Blair landslide, no Iraq invasion, no mayors of London, no Boris, no Brexit.
Nah, he'd have just been even more determined to keep us in the ERM which would have meant interest rates would have gone even higher, more families would have been thrown to the wolves in their mad desire to peg us to the ERM and Black Wednesday would have turned into Black Thursday and Black Friday etc