> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1134409086152392705 > > > > > > Sweepstake on when they quietly reinstate? > > > > The D Day/Trump event. Journalists will be busy elsewhere and we'll have wall to wall TV of D Day ceremony etc. > > Anti-semitism only warrants suspension. Voting LibDem expulsion. Corbyn's Labour/Momentum party has clearly got very warped values.
He has been suspended while they investigate how to get him back in with the minimum of fuss.
> @brokenwheel said: > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably.
As well as a growing intolerance in other areas, I'm finding the ageism around at the moment dispiriting and disappointing. Dismissing someone because they are old or 'yesterday's man' is simply a mask for saying you don't agree with them. Don't bring age into it. There are wise and foolish people of all ages. After all, most people revere David Attenborough and the Queen.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @DougSeal said: > > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool? > > Total newb. > > I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
Funny how the people that wish to support Putin's foreign policy objectives refer to others as "traitors". Throwing bricks is also obviously part of what they regard as "democracy".
This is modern UK, and these are the consequences of indulging fascists like Farage.
“However, there comes a point when a small party becomes a big party, when they should be included in the main prompt. This can be a difficult decision, and one that YouGov takes time and care to call correctly, thoroughly testing any changes before they go ahead. This was the approach we took before the 2015 election when UKIP were breaking through. We regularly tested the effect of prompting on UKIP support, and, once it seemed it was no longer giving them an artifical boost, we started including UKIP in the main prompt alongside Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
We are at that same point with the Brexit Party now - testing the impact prompting has and what their support would be in a write-in question without any prompting for any of the parties. If we are confident that including them in the main prompt will produce more accurate results than grouping them with "others", we will update our question prompting.”
> @brokenwheel said: > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> @kinabalu said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Is Mordaunt going to stand? What's the deadline for announcing it? > > > > It looks very likely. The contest hasn’t even officially started yet so she has plenty of time. > > And Patel, Leave Means Steve, and perhaps SGB. > > Which will make 15. What a bun fight. > > Who will have the biggest bun? I think Gove. Biggest bun in politics right now.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go. > > Don't even get me started on public sector pensions. People talk about unfairness. How can in be fair that "The Few" can retire in their mid 50s while "The Many" have to carry on working until they are in their 70s. Why won't it change? Because the powers that be (including the Union Barons) like their own arrangements too much. This includes Nigel-man-o-the-people-Farridge
The current scheme for Civil Service graduates is generous, but not massively so.
> @HYUFD said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
> @SouthamObserver said: > Worth noting that YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except on the BXP result, which was beyond the margin of error too high.
> @HYUFD said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
Not really. It’s still mostly age and education. Although education and class are of course correlated.
> @kjh said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @DougSeal said: > > > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool? > > > > Total newb. > > > > I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them. > > Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
> @HYUFD said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
What were the numbers like in the 70s and 80s when it really was class politics? I would assume much wider gaps than 29/17?
Age still seems a much better predicter of current political allegiances, especially around brexit, than class.
> @kinabalu said: > Lack of any at all logo at all was the final nail in CHUK's coffin. > > That project does seem to have flopped. > > Chuka remains a brand searching for shelf space.
Reached his sell by date - reduced for quick sale.
> @AramintaMoonbeamQC said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > Who? Elaine Murray? She's not even an MSP anymore. I like Jenny Marra but she is perhaps a bit powderpuff to get heard at the moment. > > > > > > I met and talked with Sarwar during the Better Together campaign. He did not impress. The epitomy of an empty (rather expensive) suit. > > > > > > Ian Murray I presume, though the precedent for a Westminster mp taking the SLab reins are not propitious. No doubt there will still be numpties telling us that he's the man the EssEnnPee fear, though. > > There are far more laughs to be had from a Paul Sweeney or James Kelly leadership bid, though.
There are not enough laughs left in the world to cope with a JayKay leadership bid.
> Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably.
Given that 23% of C2DE used to vote LD suggests tribalism is not the issue or they would never have gone LD in the first place. The reason of course is they went to a NOTA more to their liking, UKIP.
Wrt to the social grade breakdowns It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur. They are also more geographically confined, which is a blessing and a curse.
As well as a growing intolerance in other areas, I'm finding the ageism around at the moment dispiriting and disappointing. Dismissing someone because they are old or 'yesterday's man' is simply a mask for saying you don't agree with them. Don't bring age into it. There are wise and foolish people of all ages. After all, most people revere David Attenborough and the Queen.
And leave voters. 👍🏻
Attacking old leave voters and wishing their early deaths so you can win a rerun of a referendum is seemingly fine but criticising old Tory remain supporting grandees is a no no.
> @malcolmg said: > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go. > > I tend to agree with @anothernick that the reason it is an abomination is that we have an overly cautious and restrictive pensions regime. FS pensions would still have been affordable if it was permitted to value the liabilities by reference to the returns that pension funds routinely achieve. The consequences of this "protection" for pension members have proven to be truly horrendous dumping most of the uncertainty onto them rather than the employer. The law of good intentions strikes again. > > I think it was more deliberate David.
No, it was politicians demanding belt and braces solutions to get irate pensioners off their back and accountants and actuaries taking them at their word and devising an excessively cautious regime which the politicians then agreed to because they had been told it was copper-bottomed and didn't understand that it was also unaffordable and would kill off the schemes it was supposed to protect. A good example of how not to make public policy, and also an illustration of the inability of today's inexperienced and immature politicians being unable to offer sufficient challenge or leadership. AFAIK there is only one MP who has more than a superficial knowledge of pension schemes, Ed Davey.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably. > > Given that 23% of C2DE used to vote LD suggests tribalism is not the issue or they would never have gone LD in the first place. The reason of course is they went to a NOTA more to their liking, UKIP. > > It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur.
The LibDem vote always was fickle - they have a tiny core vote supplemented by people who decide to back them for various reasons at various times. The upside to this is that there is a very significant slice of the electorate who are willing to consider voting LibDem, compared to the other parties. The challenge is to get them all voting for the party in the same election.
> > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
>
> Total newb.
>
> I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
> > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
>
> Total newb.
>
> I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
> Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > What were the numbers like in the 70s and 80s when it really was class politics? I would assume much wider gaps than 29/17? > > Age still seems a much better predicter of current political allegiances, especially around brexit, than class.
Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party.
Age is also an issue in the Brexit Party v LDs but remember a small majority of under 35 non graduates voted Leave even if the vast majority of under 35 graduates voted Remain
> @nichomar said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business.
> @nichomar said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
> @brendan16 said: > As well as a growing intolerance in other areas, I'm finding the ageism around at the moment dispiriting and disappointing. Dismissing someone because they are old or 'yesterday's man' is simply a mask for saying you don't agree with them. Don't bring age into it. There are wise and foolish people of all ages. After all, most people revere David Attenborough and the Queen. > > And leave voters. 👍🏻 > > > > Attacking old leave voters and wishing their early deaths so you can win a rerun of a referendum is seemingly fine but criticising old Tory remain supporting grandees is a no no.
Who on earth says you cannot criticise Tory grandees? People disagreeing with your criticisms is not them making it a no no. So many snow flakes amongst the Brexiteers......
> Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
>
> I tend to agree with @anothernick that the reason it is an abomination is that we have an overly cautious and restrictive pensions regime. FS pensions would still have been affordable if it was permitted to value the liabilities by reference to the returns that pension funds routinely achieve. The consequences of this "protection" for pension members have proven to be truly horrendous dumping most of the uncertainty onto them rather than the employer. The law of good intentions strikes again.
>
> I think it was more deliberate David.
No, it was politicians demanding belt and braces solutions to get irate pensioners off their back and accountants and actuaries taking them at their word and devising an excessively cautious regime which the politicians then agreed to because they had been told it was copper-bottomed and didn't understand that it was also unaffordable and would kill off the schemes it was supposed to protect. A good example of how not to make public policy, and also an illustration of the inability of today's inexperienced and immature politicians being unable to offer sufficient challenge or leadership. AFAIK there is only one MP who has more than a superficial knowledge of pension schemes, Ed Davey.
Steve Webb was well regarded it I recall correctly
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
> @IanB2 said: > > @rural_voter said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > I was also wondering this: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1134399525169315840 > > > > > > > > > > Not really. Vince Cable is not a very good leader and has had his time. The difficulty for them is that they have a very small number of MPs. They perhaps should look outside parliament. > > > > > > > > A mate asked in the pub last night whatever happened to the idea of a leader who was not MP? > > > > > > > > I said I thought conference had rejected the idea, but I'm not 100% > > > > > > Yep. The constitutional changes were watered down leaving only the idea of a supporters club. > > __________________ > > > > Sandy Toksvig used to be a Lib.Dem. How did they manage to lose her? At the protest in London on 23 March, she and Heseltine gave the two best speeches. Caroline Lucas's was also pretty good. > > > > Trying to fit what might soon be 7-10 parties into a two-party FPTP system is getting silly > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html > > We need PR. > > And the odds on Tory and Labour understanding that while they have the power to change things are.....?
Certainly <<10%?
Labour: some support for PR but does better under FPTP at low levels of support than the other three potential 'main parties'.
Tories: minor support for PR - Hannan - but using FPTP they're in deep **** if their support falls to 25%.
The PM numbers are absolutely beyond appalling for Corbyn. Yet he might be the next PM I wonder if Farage will run for a seat at the next GE, my guess is he won't as the media will become a circus around him personally - he'll play a role like Sturgeon. Richard Tice will probably get wherever BRX work out their #1 target is and be the leader in Westminster.
> @HYUFD said: > > Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party ------------
I don't think you do. Look at the demographics of the 1992 result, for example:
> @HYUFD said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!! > > There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
Given the age profiles it would be interesting to see the net worth profiles of Brexit v LD, I would not be surprised if the mean Brexit net worth > mean LD net worth despite the class differences above (even excluding Putin).
Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly?
> To those asking why Lab has been forgiven for Iraq whilst LDs still have tuition fees / coalition as an albatross around its neck, the answer is Corbyn.
>
> Corbyn and his movement are so anti war that it cleaned that slate for Labour. LDs cannot, on the other hand, do that with Swinson or Davey, who were at the heart of the coalition.
To be honest I find all this forgiveness malarky very childish. We have a very limited set of options, none of which are great. To restrict that choice further because of something that happened in the past is very restrictive.
I find the current Tory party incompetent, many of their MPs borderline stupid and they have caused the country great harm with the Brexit obsession yet I would have little problem voting for a different Tory leader with a better manifesto than the alternatives in the future.
> Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
Don't even get me started on public sector pensions. People talk about unfairness. How can in be fair that "The Few" can retire in their mid 50s while "The Many" have to carry on working until they are in their 70s. Why won't it change? Because the powers that be (including the Union Barons) like their own arrangements too much. This includes Nigel-man-o-the-people-Farridge
Final salary pensions have not been available to Civil Servants since about 2005/6. The only ones still extant are those who worked before then. If you think jobs in the civil service are so easy and lucrative, the job site is/was jobs.civilservice.gov.uk. but you have to sit one test (two for the professions) an aptitude test, a panel interview, a security check, an enhanced background check for some jobs, and if you are successful the pay is crap and the annual payrises zero. I earn about £18k plus bonus more in the private sector than I would get in the public one. It is not as easy or as lucrative as you think.
> @kinabalu said: > You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business. > > Mmm the Trump, Brexit conundrum. > > I'm afraid 'identity' (in the ethnic sense) explains a lot of it. > > But is there much point in cranking through all that again? Probably not. It just has to be defeated.
goodwin talks about the 4 ds:
distrust in politicians deprivation and inequality destruction of national identity/culture (migration) de-alignment - weaken loyalty to main parties
There are worse ways to start the day than to read of the first LD poll lead in more than 9 years - since the heady days of "Cleggmania" "all those years ago" (as George Harrison once said).
Apart from the excitable and the polling geeks, no one else is getting excited. It's very good and a tripling of the vote on the 2017 GE but even with that number (if achievable) no one is imagining Jo Swinson or Ed Davey is getting ready to move into 10 Downing Street.
It may well be this is as good as it gets - one of the reasons the CON/LAB duopoly has survived so good is its very symbiotic nature. Without the fear of a Labour Government, would anyone vote Conservative? Without the fear of a Conservative Government, would anyone vote Labour?
Once it was realised Blair was leading a non-socialist Labour party of the centre or centre-left, millions of former Conservatives could happily vote Labour happily knowing all the achievements of the Thatcher years weren't going to be undone.
Corbyn has been the best recruiting force the Conservatives have had but if more and more people Labour under him can't win the flow from the Conservatives will continue.
Oddly enough, IF Labour dumped Corbyn for a Thornberry or a more "reasonable" figure it would help the Conservatives as the threat of a Labour Government would again be real.
On the Conservative side, the pro-"No Deal" candidates need to explain how the deleterious economic impacts predicted by the likes of the CBI and the BoE are just "Project Fear" and what they will do if they are not while the pro-"Dealers" will have to explain how they can get the WA through the Commons when May failed three times and without the ability to change as much as a comma. HYUFD believes Labour will ride to the rescue - he may be right.
However, it suits BOTH the LDs and BXP (now in their own unholy alliance) to see Corbyn's Labour sinking further into internal strife and to see the Conservatives thrashing around in the elephant trap of their own divisions and inability to see a way out of the A50 dilemma.
> @IanB2 said: > > @nichomar said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > > > > I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it. > > You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business.
Poor Americans overall though don't, Hillary won Americans earning under $50 000 and tied Trump with rich Americans earning over $100 000, Trump won skilled working class voters and lower middle class voters in between
> Who? Elaine Murray? She's not even an MSP anymore. I like Jenny Marra but she is perhaps a bit powderpuff to get heard at the moment.
>
> I met and talked with Sarwar during the Better Together campaign. He did not impress. The epitomy of an empty (rather expensive) suit.
Ian Murray I presume, though the precedent for a Westminster mp taking the SLab reins are not propitious. No doubt there will still be numpties telling us that he's the man the EssEnnPee fear, though.
I suppose that makes slightly more sense but I think even Labour have worked out that the Scottish leader needs to be in the Scottish Parliament. My understanding (and to be honest he does not impinge on my consciousness much) is that his relationship with the Corbynites is little short of poisonous so it also seems unlikely.
They cannot afford another London lapdog but given they have no money and depend on HQ paying all their bills they cannot afford not to have one , it will be another sockpuppet for certain.
> @nichomar said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go. > > > > > > I tend to agree with @anothernick that the reason it is an abomination is that we have an overly cautious and restrictive pensions regime. FS pensions would still have been affordable if it was permitted to value the liabilities by reference to the returns that pension funds routinely achieve. The consequences of this "protection" for pension members have proven to be truly horrendous dumping most of the uncertainty onto them rather than the employer. The law of good intentions strikes again. > > > > > > I think it was more deliberate David. > > > > No, it was politicians demanding belt and braces solutions to get irate pensioners off their back and accountants and actuaries taking them at their word and devising an excessively cautious regime which the politicians then agreed to because they had been told it was copper-bottomed and didn't understand that it was also unaffordable and would kill off the schemes it was supposed to protect. A good example of how not to make public policy, and also an illustration of the inability of today's inexperienced and immature politicians being unable to offer sufficient challenge or leadership. AFAIK there is only one MP who has more than a superficial knowledge of pension schemes, Ed Davey. > > Steve Webb was well regarded it I recall correctly
Yes I stand corrected, it was Webb not Davey. Unfortunately he later took a lucrative role with a pension company which rather took the gloss off the work he had done in government.
Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly?
I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
I'm always a bit wary about blaming the voters. If the prime minister and the government say we must leave the EU, why should voters doubt them? If politicians as eminent and wise as Boris and JRM, who have been to the best schools and the best universities, say we will be billions of pounds better off out with no deal, why should they not be believed? It is the same as Iraq, 45 minutes and WMDs. The system relies on politicians and especially the government not just making stuff up because if they do, then parliament will not call them out and nor will the press.
> Who? Elaine Murray? She's not even an MSP anymore. I like Jenny Marra but she is perhaps a bit powderpuff to get heard at the moment.
>
> I met and talked with Sarwar during the Better Together campaign. He did not impress. The epitomy of an empty (rather expensive) suit.
Ian Murray I presume, though the precedent for a Westminster mp taking the SLab reins are not propitious. No doubt there will still be numpties telling us that he's the man the EssEnnPee fear, though.
I suppose that makes slightly more sense but I think even Labour have worked out that the Scottish leader needs to be in the Scottish Parliament. My understanding (and to be honest he does not impinge on my consciousness much) is that his relationship with the Corbynites is little short of poisonous so it also seems unlikely.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > > > > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!! > > > > There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party) > > Given the age profiles it would be interesting to see the net worth profiles of Brexit v LD, I would not be surprised if the mean Brexit net worth > mean LD net worth despite the class differences above (even excluding Putin).
No way.
LDs will be far wealthier on average than Brexit Party voters if they lead with ABC1s including lawyers, doctors and managers but the Brexit Party lead with the working class.
Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke.
The middle class battle at the moment is LD v Tory, the working class battle is Brexit Party v Labour with the former winning currently in each case
> @kamski said: > Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly?
Market beginning to realise that Brexit uncertainty is not going to be resolved anytime soon.
City types have been extraordinarily optimistic about Brexit - I have lost count of the number of presentations I have been to (as part of my job) at which managers have opined that sterling is set for a rise as soon as the markets have clarity. Up until recently the comforting assumption has been that clarity was just around the corner, it is only now that they are beginning to realise that it may be delayed for a decade or two.
> @HYUFD said: > > Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke -------
And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party > ------------ > > I don't think you do. Look at the demographics of the 1992 result, for example: > > AB: > Tory: 56% > Labour: 19% > > DE: > Tory: 31% > Labour: 49% > > https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992
Misleading as Labour was closer with C1s and the Tories just 1% behind Labour with C1s, though of course it took Blair and Brexit for Labour to really breakthrough with the middle class
> > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> > > >
> > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> > >
> > > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
> >
> > There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
>
> Given the age profiles it would be interesting to see the net worth profiles of Brexit v LD, I would not be surprised if the mean Brexit net worth > mean LD net worth despite the class differences above (even excluding Putin).
No way.
LDs will be far wealthier on average than Brexit Party voters if they lead with ABC1s including lawyers doctors and managers but the Brexit Party lead with the working class.
Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke
Whilst I know the lib dems have some very wealthy members as there are only four TBP Ltd members it’s difficult to compare the “wealth” at the top of the party. It makes more sense to look at who gains most out of a particular party winning, but do you’re own research
> @nichomar said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1. > > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance > > > I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
Immigration and sovereignty and they have less to lose anyway
> Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke
-------
And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke > > ------- > > > > And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy. > > Where do the Tories go ? > > Back to Osbornism ?
The party of the 9%? In which case they may as well go for PR
There were plenty of people in SFRY expressing similar sentiments right up until the day they were scavenging for snow dusted firewood in sniper alley.
> Who? Elaine Murray? She's not even an MSP anymore. I like Jenny Marra but she is perhaps a bit powderpuff to get heard at the moment.
>
> I met and talked with Sarwar during the Better Together campaign. He did not impress. The epitomy of an empty (rather expensive) suit.
Ian Murray I presume, though the precedent for a Westminster mp taking the SLab reins are not propitious. No doubt there will still be numpties telling us that he's the man the EssEnnPee fear, though.
I suppose that makes slightly more sense but I think even Labour have worked out that the Scottish leader needs to be in the Scottish Parliament. My understanding (and to be honest he does not impinge on my consciousness much) is that his relationship with the Corbynites is little short of poisonous so it also seems unlikely.
Ian Murray is an independent party at this stage.
Not officially I don't think. But yes, the idea of Corbyn allowing him to become Scottish Labour leader is pretty far fetched.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke > ------- > > And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
Rubbish.
The Brexit Party won Epping Forest, Buckingham, Wellingborough, Tonbridge, Thurrock, Mansfield, Ryedale etc even a few Tory Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells and Maidenhead last week (Stoke already has a Tory seat, also lost to Farage).
In fact the Tories lost more areas to the Brexit Party than the LDs last week and far more of their voters
The epigraph could apply equally well to Brexit... <i>"I wonder if this is a case where people in two different cultures are totally misunderstanding each other’s interpretation of the ground rules, which has led both to feel the other has cheated them." </i>
> @anothernick said: > > @kamski said: > > Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly? > > Market beginning to realise that Brexit uncertainty is not going to be resolved anytime soon. > > City types have been extraordinarily optimistic about Brexit - I have lost count of the number of presentations I have been to (as part of my job) at which managers have opined that sterling is set for a rise as soon as the markets have clarity. Up until recently the comforting assumption has been that clarity was just around the corner, it is only now that they are beginning to realise that it may be delayed for a decade or two.
Interesting, tho I assume it would depend on the type of "clarity" - wouldn't No-Deal clarity lead to sterling falling further? And conversely No-Deal being ruled out would lead to a rise from current levels? Or was the assumption up to now that clarity would definitely involve No-Deal being ruled out?
Maybe the calculation is that a competitive Conservative leadership election will lead to contenders all promising No-Deal (if Unicorn doesn't appear), and it now looks more likely to be competitive than a few days ago?
> @viewcode said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go. > > > > Don't even get me started on public sector pensions. People talk about unfairness. How can in be fair that "The Few" can retire in their mid 50s while "The Many" have to carry on working until they are in their 70s. Why won't it change? Because the powers that be (including the Union Barons) like their own arrangements too much. This includes Nigel-man-o-the-people-Farridge > > Final salary pensions have not been available to Civil Servants since about 2005/6. The only ones still extant are those who worked before then. If you think jobs in the civil service are so easy and lucrative, the job site is/was jobs.civilservice.gov.uk. but you have to sit one test (two for the professions) an aptitude test, a panel interview, a security check, an enhanced background check for some jobs, and if you are successful the pay is crap and the annual payrises zero. I earn about £18k plus bonus more in the private sector than I would get in the public one. It is not as easy or as lucrative as you think.
There is no evidence that the equivalent public sector position (if it is possible to draw comparisons) pays less than private, and most studies that I have seen point to the opposite. What is a clear fact is that the public, while not so much "job for life" (unless you are a doctor) as it used to be, is massively safer than private and still carries much better pension arrangements. And that is fundamentally unfair on most workers
Thanks for the job link, but no I have no need of a job in the civil service, and the suggestion was a bit silly. I was not suggesting it is easy to be in the civil service, or any other public sector job.
> @IanB2 said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE. > > > > > > > > That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably. > > > > Given that 23% of C2DE used to vote LD suggests tribalism is not the issue or they would never have gone LD in the first place. The reason of course is they went to a NOTA more to their liking, UKIP. > > > > It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur. > > The LibDem vote always was fickle - they have a tiny core vote supplemented by people who decide to back them for various reasons at various times. The upside to this is that there is a very significant slice of the electorate who are willing to consider voting LibDem, compared to the other parties. The challenge is to get them all voting for the party in the same election.
And vice versa, of course. There are lots of people whom MrHY & Co consider to be Tory voters and incapable of voting any other way. In fact, there are a lot of people who could vote Con or could vote Lib Dem, and last week they went Lib Dem. The circumstances were right for them to do so.
Likewise there are people who could vote Labour or could vote Lib Dem. Again, they are currently in the Lib Dem column.
No party can count their chickens. This is the mistake that both Corbyn and May have made.
Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
What prompt rule would PB members suggest? You need to include any party that has done well in the last few election cycles plus newcomers with a high profile surely? There would have to be a regional change to reflect where the question is asked too.
> @Chris said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20 > > > > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore. > > Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it? > > Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
> @eek said: > > @Chris said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20 > > > > > > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore. > > > > Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it? > > > > Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election. > > Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
Why does that make it fair to class them among Others?
> > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
>
> Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it?
>
> Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
I thought you gov explained their approach very clearly up thread in NF doesn’t understand it it’s his problem
> > > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
> >
> > Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it?
> >
> > Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
>
> Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
Why does that make it fair to class them among Others?
Because it’s not about fairness, it’s about getting as close as possible to the actual result.
Comments
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1134409086152392705
> > >
> > > Sweepstake on when they quietly reinstate?
> >
> > The D Day/Trump event. Journalists will be busy elsewhere and we'll have wall to wall TV of D Day ceremony etc.
>
> Anti-semitism only warrants suspension. Voting LibDem expulsion. Corbyn's Labour/Momentum party has clearly got very warped values.
He has been suspended while they investigate how to get him back in with the minimum of fuss.
> Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably.
> > @DougSeal said:
> > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
>
> Total newb.
>
> I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
Which will make 15. What a bun fight.
Who will have the biggest bun? I think Gove. Biggest bun in politics right now.
> https://twitter.com/thebeakbrewery/status/1134002379765010432?s=21
Funny how the people that wish to support Putin's foreign policy objectives refer to others as "traitors". Throwing bricks is also obviously part of what they regard as "democracy".
This is modern UK, and these are the consequences of indulging fascists like Farage.
“However, there comes a point when a small party becomes a big party, when they should be included in the main prompt. This can be a difficult decision, and one that YouGov takes time and care to call correctly, thoroughly testing any changes before they go ahead. This was the approach we took before the 2015 election when UKIP were breaking through. We regularly tested the effect of prompting on UKIP support, and, once it seemed it was no longer giving them an artifical boost, we started including UKIP in the main prompt alongside Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
We are at that same point with the Brexit Party now - testing the impact prompting has and what their support would be in a write-in question without any prompting for any of the parties. If we are confident that including them in the main prompt will produce more accurate results than grouping them with "others", we will update our question prompting.”
> Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
>
> > Is Mordaunt going to stand? What's the deadline for announcing it?
>
>
>
> It looks very likely. The contest hasn’t even officially started yet so she has plenty of time.
>
> And Patel, Leave Means Steve, and perhaps SGB.
>
> Which will make 15. What a bun fight.
>
> Who will have the biggest bun? I think Gove. Biggest bun in politics right now.
He is the only Leaver with a brain.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
>
> Don't even get me started on public sector pensions. People talk about unfairness. How can in be fair that "The Few" can retire in their mid 50s while "The Many" have to carry on working until they are in their 70s. Why won't it change? Because the powers that be (including the Union Barons) like their own arrangements too much. This includes Nigel-man-o-the-people-Farridge
The current scheme for Civil Service graduates is generous, but not massively so.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
> Worth noting that YouGov got the EU election result pretty much spot on - except on the BXP result, which was beyond the margin of error too high.
Yougov did understate Labour - albeit within MOE.
Chuka remains a brand searching for shelf space.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
Not really. It’s still mostly age and education. Although education and class are of course correlated.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @DougSeal said:
> > > I joined the LibDems last September. Am I a LibDem Hipster? Was that long enough ago to have done so before it was cool?
> >
> > Total newb.
> >
> > I’ve been a member of my party since the mid-80s and well remember when we had fewer than 10,000 members (rumour was that it was nearer 5,000). Back then I almost literally knew every activist in the country, or at least recognised them. I consider anyone that joined the SNP post 1995 to be a newbie. But I still love them. Just don’t know their names or faces as there’s so many of them.
>
> Ohhh a competition 1983. I think I am going to lose by some margin however.
1979
Hard Man - Steve Baker
Hard Luck -
Hard Cheese -
Hard Times -
Hardball -
Hard Rock -
Hard On -
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
What were the numbers like in the 70s and 80s when it really was class politics? I would assume much wider gaps than 29/17?
Age still seems a much better predicter of current political allegiances, especially around brexit, than class.
> Lack of any at all logo at all was the final nail in CHUK's coffin.
>
> That project does seem to have flopped.
>
> Chuka remains a brand searching for shelf space.
Reached his sell by date - reduced for quick sale.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > Who? Elaine Murray? She's not even an MSP anymore. I like Jenny Marra but she is perhaps a bit powderpuff to get heard at the moment.
> > >
> > > I met and talked with Sarwar during the Better Together campaign. He did not impress. The epitomy of an empty (rather expensive) suit.
> >
> >
> > Ian Murray I presume, though the precedent for a Westminster mp taking the SLab reins are not propitious. No doubt there will still be numpties telling us that he's the man the EssEnnPee fear, though.
>
> There are far more laughs to be had from a Paul Sweeney or James Kelly leadership bid, though.
There are not enough laughs left in the world to cope with a JayKay leadership bid.
Wrt to the social grade breakdowns It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur. They are also more geographically confined, which is a blessing and a curse.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > That project does seem to have flopped.
> > Chuka remains a brand searching for shelf space.
> Reached his sell by date - reduced for quick sale.
Lowering the price will help but you also need to get him physically moved.
ATM it takes too much effort to locate him - can't find, don't buy.
Labour on 23% with the young'uns.
> Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
>
> I tend to agree with @anothernick that the reason it is an abomination is that we have an overly cautious and restrictive pensions regime. FS pensions would still have been affordable if it was permitted to value the liabilities by reference to the returns that pension funds routinely achieve. The consequences of this "protection" for pension members have proven to be truly horrendous dumping most of the uncertainty onto them rather than the employer. The law of good intentions strikes again.
>
> I think it was more deliberate David.
No, it was politicians demanding belt and braces solutions to get irate pensioners off their back and accountants and actuaries taking them at their word and devising an excessively cautious regime which the politicians then agreed to because they had been told it was copper-bottomed and didn't understand that it was also unaffordable and would kill off the schemes it was supposed to protect. A good example of how not to make public policy, and also an illustration of the inability of today's inexperienced and immature politicians being unable to offer sufficient challenge or leadership. AFAIK there is only one MP who has more than a superficial knowledge of pension schemes, Ed Davey.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
>
>
> That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably.
>
> Given that 23% of C2DE used to vote LD suggests tribalism is not the issue or they would never have gone LD in the first place. The reason of course is they went to a NOTA more to their liking, UKIP.
>
> It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur.
The LibDem vote always was fickle - they have a tiny core vote supplemented by people who decide to back them for various reasons at various times. The upside to this is that there is a very significant slice of the electorate who are willing to consider voting LibDem, compared to the other parties. The challenge is to get them all voting for the party in the same election.
> https://twitter.com/james_bowley/status/1134409858424430592
>
> Labour on 23% with the young'uns.
Have they finally realised Magic Grandpa is a fraud?
I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> >
> > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> >
> > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
>
> What were the numbers like in the 70s and 80s when it really was class politics? I would assume much wider gaps than 29/17?
>
> Age still seems a much better predicter of current political allegiances, especially around brexit, than class.
Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party.
Age is also an issue in the Brexit Party v LDs but remember a small majority of under 35 non graduates voted Leave even if the vast majority of under 35 graduates voted Remain
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1134090534576898048
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
>
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
>
>
> I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
>
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
>
>
> I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
They have fallen for the snake oil?
> As well as a growing intolerance in other areas, I'm finding the ageism around at the moment dispiriting and disappointing. Dismissing someone because they are old or 'yesterday's man' is simply a mask for saying you don't agree with them. Don't bring age into it. There are wise and foolish people of all ages. After all, most people revere David Attenborough and the Queen.
>
> And leave voters. 👍🏻
>
>
>
> Attacking old leave voters and wishing their early deaths so you can win a rerun of a referendum is seemingly fine but criticising old Tory remain supporting grandees is a no no.
Who on earth says you cannot criticise Tory grandees? People disagreeing with your criticisms is not them making it a no no. So many snow flakes amongst the Brexiteers......
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Who will have the biggest bun? I think Gove. Biggest bun in politics right now.
>
> He is the only Leaver with a brain.
Leaver with a BIG brain TBF.
Which, rather like a jovial bus driver, is unusual but by no means unheard of.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> >
> > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> >
> > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
>
> Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > I was also wondering this:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1134399525169315840
> > > > >
> > > > > Not really. Vince Cable is not a very good leader and has had his time. The difficulty for them is that they have a very small number of MPs. They perhaps should look outside parliament.
> > > >
> > > > A mate asked in the pub last night whatever happened to the idea of a leader who was not MP?
> > > >
> > > > I said I thought conference had rejected the idea, but I'm not 100%
> > >
> > > Yep. The constitutional changes were watered down leaving only the idea of a supporters club.
> > __________________
> >
> > Sandy Toksvig used to be a Lib.Dem. How did they manage to lose her? At the protest in London on 23 March, she and Heseltine gave the two best speeches. Caroline Lucas's was also pretty good.
> >
> > Trying to fit what might soon be 7-10 parties into a two-party FPTP system is getting silly
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html
> > We need PR.
>
> And the odds on Tory and Labour understanding that while they have the power to change things are.....?
Certainly <<10%?
Labour: some support for PR but does better under FPTP at low levels of support than the other three potential 'main parties'.
Tories: minor support for PR - Hannan - but using FPTP they're in deep **** if their support falls to 25%.
I wonder if Farage will run for a seat at the next GE, my guess is he won't as the media will become a circus around him personally - he'll play a role like Sturgeon. Richard Tice will probably get wherever BRX work out their #1 target is and be the leader in Westminster.
>
> Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party
------------
I don't think you do. Look at the demographics of the 1992 result, for example:
AB:
Tory: 56%
Labour: 19%
DE:
Tory: 31%
Labour: 49%
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992
> I know there are one or two train buffs on here:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1134090534576898048
>
>
>
> Presumably Michael Palin and Michael Portillo have already booked?
They can afford to.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> > >
> > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> > >
> > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> >
> > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
>
> There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
Given the age profiles it would be interesting to see the net worth profiles of Brexit v LD, I would not be surprised if the mean Brexit net worth > mean LD net worth despite the class differences above (even excluding Putin).
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1134426490051944448
I'm afraid 'identity' (in the ethnic sense) explains a lot of it.
But is there much point in cranking through all that again? Probably not. It just has to be defeated.
Anyway, YouGov overstating a party that wins by 11% is hardly a failure for the party, however often the straw man is made
> You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business.
>
> Mmm the Trump, Brexit conundrum.
>
> I'm afraid 'identity' (in the ethnic sense) explains a lot of it.
>
> But is there much point in cranking through all that again? Probably not. It just has to be defeated.
goodwin talks about the 4 ds:
distrust in politicians
deprivation and inequality
destruction of national identity/culture (migration)
de-alignment - weaken loyalty to main parties
There are worse ways to start the day than to read of the first LD poll lead in more than 9 years - since the heady days of "Cleggmania" "all those years ago" (as George Harrison once said).
Apart from the excitable and the polling geeks, no one else is getting excited. It's very good and a tripling of the vote on the 2017 GE but even with that number (if achievable) no one is imagining Jo Swinson or Ed Davey is getting ready to move into 10 Downing Street.
It may well be this is as good as it gets - one of the reasons the CON/LAB duopoly has survived so good is its very symbiotic nature. Without the fear of a Labour Government, would anyone vote Conservative? Without the fear of a Conservative Government, would anyone vote Labour?
Once it was realised Blair was leading a non-socialist Labour party of the centre or centre-left, millions of former Conservatives could happily vote Labour happily knowing all the achievements of the Thatcher years weren't going to be undone.
Corbyn has been the best recruiting force the Conservatives have had but if more and more people Labour under him can't win the flow from the Conservatives will continue.
Oddly enough, IF Labour dumped Corbyn for a Thornberry or a more "reasonable" figure it would help the Conservatives as the threat of a Labour Government would again be real.
On the Conservative side, the pro-"No Deal" candidates need to explain how the deleterious economic impacts predicted by the likes of the CBI and the BoE are just "Project Fear" and what they will do if they are not while the pro-"Dealers" will have to explain how they can get the WA through the Commons when May failed three times and without the ability to change as much as a comma. HYUFD believes Labour will ride to the rescue - he may be right.
However, it suits BOTH the LDs and BXP (now in their own unholy alliance) to see Corbyn's Labour sinking further into internal strife and to see the Conservatives thrashing around in the elephant trap of their own divisions and inability to see a way out of the A50 dilemma.
> > @nichomar said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> >
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> >
> >
> >
> > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> >
> >
> > I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
>
> You might just as well ask why so many poor white Americans fervently support a party run by millionaires that exists to protect big business.
Poor Americans overall though don't, Hillary won Americans earning under $50 000 and tied Trump with rich Americans earning over $100 000, Trump won skilled working class voters and lower middle class voters in between
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
>
> >
>
> > I tend to agree with @anothernick that the reason it is an abomination is that we have an overly cautious and restrictive pensions regime. FS pensions would still have been affordable if it was permitted to value the liabilities by reference to the returns that pension funds routinely achieve. The consequences of this "protection" for pension members have proven to be truly horrendous dumping most of the uncertainty onto them rather than the employer. The law of good intentions strikes again.
>
> >
>
> > I think it was more deliberate David.
>
>
>
> No, it was politicians demanding belt and braces solutions to get irate pensioners off their back and accountants and actuaries taking them at their word and devising an excessively cautious regime which the politicians then agreed to because they had been told it was copper-bottomed and didn't understand that it was also unaffordable and would kill off the schemes it was supposed to protect. A good example of how not to make public policy, and also an illustration of the inability of today's inexperienced and immature politicians being unable to offer sufficient challenge or leadership. AFAIK there is only one MP who has more than a superficial knowledge of pension schemes, Ed Davey.
>
> Steve Webb was well regarded it I recall correctly
Yes I stand corrected, it was Webb not Davey. Unfortunately he later took a lucrative role with a pension company which rather took the gloss off the work he had done in government.
https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1134331/pound-to-euro-gbp-exchange-rate-brexit-conservative-party-leadership-risk
> https://twitter.com/thebeakbrewery/status/1134002379765010432?s=21
This stuff happens in Scotland all the time and gets zero coverage - angry numpties whipped up by social media.
> https://twitter.com/thebeakbrewery/status/1134002379765010432
>
>
>
> We are 12-18 months away from Sarajevo '92.
That is ludicrous
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
> > > >
> > > > We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
> > >
> > > Only if you define class by intellect, then you might be correct. There are a lot of bright "working class" people I have met who think Brexit is for nutters. Now I have lit the touch paper, I had better go to lunch!!
> >
> > There are also some rich Brexit Party voters, I suspect the divide is more based on the class divide in terms of education than wealth and income though the divide is still there even with the latter (wealthier Leave voters are more likely to be soft Brexiteers and thus less likely to support the No Deal Brexit Party)
>
> Given the age profiles it would be interesting to see the net worth profiles of Brexit v LD, I would not be surprised if the mean Brexit net worth > mean LD net worth despite the class differences above (even excluding Putin).
No way.
LDs will be far wealthier on average than Brexit Party voters if they lead with ABC1s including lawyers, doctors and managers but the Brexit Party lead with the working class.
Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke.
The middle class battle at the moment is LD v Tory, the working class battle is Brexit Party v Labour with the former winning currently in each case
> Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly?
Market beginning to realise that Brexit uncertainty is not going to be resolved anytime soon.
City types have been extraordinarily optimistic about Brexit - I have lost count of the number of presentations I have been to (as part of my job) at which managers have opined that sterling is set for a rise as soon as the markets have clarity. Up until recently the comforting assumption has been that clarity was just around the corner, it is only now that they are beginning to realise that it may be delayed for a decade or two.
The Lib Dems going back to their constituencies and preparing for government, and the Tory party broken on the anvil of Europe.
Or in some cases, preparing for a lengthy incarceration under the Mental Health Act.
#psychiatrictestsforpoliticiansnow
https://newsthump.com/2019/05/27/manchester-city-stripped-of-premiership-after-adding-everyone-elses-points-together-proves-they-lost/
>
> Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke
-------
And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Thatcher made big inroads with working class voters and Blair with middle class voters so you have to go back to the 1970s and Wilson v Heath and Thorpe to find politics as divided on class as it is now with the LDs v the Brexit Party
> ------------
>
> I don't think you do. Look at the demographics of the 1992 result, for example:
>
> AB:
> Tory: 56%
> Labour: 19%
>
> DE:
> Tory: 31%
> Labour: 49%
>
> https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992
Misleading as Labour was closer with C1s and the Tories just 1% behind Labour with C1s, though of course it took Blair and Brexit for Labour to really breakthrough with the middle class
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1134416982588215296
>
> Misleading as Labour was much closer with C1s and the Tories much closer with C2s
C1s: Tory -52% Labour - 25%
It's only among C2s that it was balanced.
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
>
>
>
> The Brexit Party meanwhile are 29% C2DE and 17% ABC1.
>
>
>
> We thought class politics was dying in 2017 with the Tories and Labour with the Tories having just a 2% higher lead with ABC1s over Labour than with C2DEs, if it is Brexit Party v LDs then class politics is back with a vengeance
>
>
> I don’t really understand why the group who stand to suffer most by no deal brexit are the most keen on it.
Immigration and sovereignty and they have less to lose anyway
Back to Osbornism ?
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
> > Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke
>
> -------
>
>
>
> And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
>
> Where do the Tories go ?
>
> Back to Osbornism ?
The party of the 9%? In which case they may as well go for PR
> This stuff happens in Scotland all the time and gets zero coverage - angry numpties whipped up by social media.
Zero coverage? Is that the Express, Mail, Telegraph etc deliberately covering up Nat outrages?
One that did get covered.
https://twitter.com/TheEveningTimes/status/1134342260710137856?s=20
> https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1134431944798801920
It speaks very well of the Conservative Party that such a high proportion of their MPs are leadership material.
But please bear in mind that the Lib Dems will beat that figure by a factor of four, even if no one else but Jo Swinson stands for the leadership.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Thus the LDs won Richmond Park, Islington, Kensington and Esher and Walton last week.but the Brexit Party won Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke
> -------
>
> And the Tories want to chase after Bolsover, Merthyr Tydfil, Wigan and Stoke by becoming a copy of the Brexit Party... It's a zero seat strategy.
Rubbish.
The Brexit Party won Epping Forest, Buckingham, Wellingborough, Tonbridge, Thurrock, Mansfield, Ryedale etc even a few Tory Remain seats like Tunbridge Wells and Maidenhead last week (Stoke already has a Tory seat, also lost to Farage).
In fact the Tories lost more areas to the Brexit Party than the LDs last week and far more of their voters
> I know there are one or two train buffs on here:
>
> https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1134090534576898048
Apparently you don't have to do the whole journey if you are worried about security. You can start in London instead.
> https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20
Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1334763
The epigraph could apply equally well to Brexit...
<i>"I wonder if this is a case where people in two different cultures are totally misunderstanding each other’s interpretation of the ground rules, which has led both to feel the other has cheated them." </i>
> > @kamski said:
> > Anyone know why sterling has fallen again against the euro the last 2 days? I would have thought with Hammond's clear anti-no-deal statement the pound might have perked up slightly?
>
> Market beginning to realise that Brexit uncertainty is not going to be resolved anytime soon.
>
> City types have been extraordinarily optimistic about Brexit - I have lost count of the number of presentations I have been to (as part of my job) at which managers have opined that sterling is set for a rise as soon as the markets have clarity. Up until recently the comforting assumption has been that clarity was just around the corner, it is only now that they are beginning to realise that it may be delayed for a decade or two.
Interesting, tho I assume it would depend on the type of "clarity" - wouldn't No-Deal clarity lead to sterling falling further? And conversely No-Deal being ruled out would lead to a rise from current levels?
Or was the assumption up to now that clarity would definitely involve No-Deal being ruled out?
Maybe the calculation is that a competitive Conservative leadership election will lead to contenders all promising No-Deal (if Unicorn doesn't appear), and it now looks more likely to be competitive than a few days ago?
> https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1134431944798801920
Insignificant.
Look at the LibDems.
> Can you imagine the scenes if Pakistan defend this!!
Can you imagine the betting scandal ?
> > @Pulpstar said:
>
> > Final salary is an abomination in this day and age, 10+10 defined contribution superannuation along the lines of Oz is the way to go.
>
>
>
> Don't even get me started on public sector pensions. People talk about unfairness. How can in be fair that "The Few" can retire in their mid 50s while "The Many" have to carry on working until they are in their 70s. Why won't it change? Because the powers that be (including the Union Barons) like their own arrangements too much. This includes Nigel-man-o-the-people-Farridge
>
> Final salary pensions have not been available to Civil Servants since about 2005/6. The only ones still extant are those who worked before then. If you think jobs in the civil service are so easy and lucrative, the job site is/was jobs.civilservice.gov.uk. but you have to sit one test (two for the professions) an aptitude test, a panel interview, a security check, an enhanced background check for some jobs, and if you are successful the pay is crap and the annual payrises zero. I earn about £18k plus bonus more in the private sector than I would get in the public one. It is not as easy or as lucrative as you think.
There is no evidence that the equivalent public sector position (if it is possible to draw comparisons) pays less than private, and most studies that I have seen point to the opposite. What is a clear fact is that the public, while not so much "job for life" (unless you are a doctor) as it used to be, is massively safer than private and still carries much better pension arrangements. And that is fundamentally unfair on most workers
Thanks for the job link, but no I have no need of a job in the civil service, and the suggestion was a bit silly. I was not suggesting it is easy to be in the civil service, or any other public sector job.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > > Back in the 2010 GE campaign when the LDs were polling at a similar level their support was 25% of ABC1 and 23% of C2DE. It’s now 29% ABC1 and 16% C2DE.
> >
> >
> >
> > That is a very interesting statistic. Are the former group less tribal than the latter. Probably.
> >
> > Given that 23% of C2DE used to vote LD suggests tribalism is not the issue or they would never have gone LD in the first place. The reason of course is they went to a NOTA more to their liking, UKIP.
> >
> > It kind of works both ways. This gives the LDs a structural advantage as their voters are more likely to vote, especially in low turnout elections like we saw last Thursday. Expect some more great results in locals for instance. On the other hand yes their voters are more likely to be fickle should changes in national politics occur.
>
> The LibDem vote always was fickle - they have a tiny core vote supplemented by people who decide to back them for various reasons at various times. The upside to this is that there is a very significant slice of the electorate who are willing to consider voting LibDem, compared to the other parties. The challenge is to get them all voting for the party in the same election.
And vice versa, of course. There are lots of people whom MrHY & Co consider to be Tory voters and incapable of voting any other way. In fact, there are a lot of people who could vote Con or could vote Lib Dem, and last week they went Lib Dem. The circumstances were right for them to do so.
Likewise there are people who could vote Labour or could vote Lib Dem. Again, they are currently in the Lib Dem column.
No party can count their chickens. This is the mistake that both Corbyn and May have made.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20
>
> Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it?
Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20
> >
> > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
>
> Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it?
>
> Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
> > @Chris said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1134365557325799424?s=20
> > >
> > > Another tin-foil hat lunatic airs his populist conspiracy theories. Ignore.
> >
> > Actually, it's a fair point, isn't it?
> >
> > Much as I hate and loathe the Brexit Party, and would like to see its leader soaked in milk shakes for the rest of his natural life, It does seem a bit peculiar to categorise them under "Others" when they have just topped the poll in a national election.
>
> Hardly, given that Brexit polled higher in the EU polls than they actually got in the EU election itself.
Why does that make it fair to class them among Others?