> > Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
>
> I suspect the sun is now setting on Corbyn and momentum. Just can't see them coming back from this.
Don't bet on it. Cancer has a nasty habit of dodging treatment. They won't stop until Labour is dead. We need to amputate them from the body.
I said quite a while back that Labour was turning into a mixture of Respect and the SWP. Nothing I’ve seen since then has changed my mind. The current Labour leadership would be delighted if all those Lib Dem voting Labourites pushed off. That way there would only be true believers in the party and, they think, FPTP will help them win a GE even on a low percentage.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Brecon should be a shoo-in for the yellows if there is a by-election there. > > I have no idea as to the strength of feeling in Brecon around the recall petition. > > With Peterborough, it is a far more obvious act of criminality > > Yes, making up a couple of invoices is illegal - but there was no personal gain, it was a clumsy and wrong way of reclaiming a legitimate expense. > > No denying the illegality - but in terms of seriousness, it doesn't feel as bad > > However I have no idea how it is playing locally. Anyone got a sense of it?
I have no personal knowledge but I find it unlikely that all the electorate will consider the issue of expenses fraud in isolation from the general political state of play. Surely there will be enough voters pissed off by Brexit to sign the petition?
UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
> > On this poll all 4 parties would be on 20 to 30% in Peterborough on UNS next week though the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
>
>
>
> It would be quite a feat for the LDs to go from 3.3% to victory in Peterborough. Who knows?
>
> They’ve got a much better record fighting by elections than Farage.
It is however rather late, and I don’t get the impression everything has been thrown at it in the way of previous successes. I haven’t had a single email asking me to go there. Rightly, the party was mostly focused on the Locals carrying through into the Euros, and its now too late to get a good ground game off the ground.
Maybe but the question is whether the odds are value.
I expect it’s a value loser but given how quickly things are changing at the moment, and how febrile politics is, I don’t think you can say anything with certainty and BXP are just too short.
Alastair Campbell putting the boot in on Radio 4 .......
Odious man who I’d be happy if I never heard from again.
Maybe so. But he’s right on Corbyn’s utter hypocrisy - using the Labour brand to get himself elected but then rebelling at every turn, having as his closest advisors people who have never supported Labour or who have publicly advised people to vote against Labour candidates - and his utter failure as leader on the political issue of the day.
> @AndyJS said: > Betting on the LDs getting second place in Peterborough might be value.
Ladbrokes have them 8/11 to beat the Tories, which I think might be value. There's a decent chance that either the LDs surge hugely or the Tories utterly collapse, or both.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote. > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
I'm not so sure that would be the case this time around - 5% is a probably a tough target to hit in some places...
> @AlastairMeeks said: > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote. > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share.
1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years. 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win. 3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote. > > > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017. > > That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share. >
Electoral Calculus is a lot better but even then it is groping in the dark. When voter coalitions break down or form, you need to model those coalitions not past vote shares.
> @Foxy said: > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition. > > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
> @AlastairMeeks said: > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote. > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
I expect you'd all kinds of wild changes, like the 1922-1931 period.
> @Jonathan said: > There are three ways Labour recovers. > > 1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years. > 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win. > 3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet. > > That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely. >
Labour will not recover till Corbyn is gone. Everyone knows what Labour represent under his leadership.
> @Jonathan said: > There are three ways Labour recovers. > > 1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years. > 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win. > 3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet. > > That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely. >
Not a chance of any of them happening, unfortunately. Labour has tied itself to an anti-EU, anti-Semitic, anti-NATO leadership clique. And will pay the penalty. This was never in doubt. The one surprise is the recovery of the LibDems. Who saw that coming?
> @Roger said: > Wouldn't that be great? No Boris. No Corbyn. No Brexit. Just get rid of the obesity problem and the UK could rejoin the list of attractive nations again.
Agree with you regarding obesity, but I consider alcohol and drugs to still be a massive problem in our countries. I’m also increasingly concerned about addiction to gambling.
(Not that any fatties, chancers, drunkards or junkies ever comment on PB. All paragons of virtue.)
> Betting on the LDs getting second place in Peterborough might be value.
Ladbrokes have them 8/11 to beat the Tories, which I think might be value. There's a decent chance that either the LDs surge hugely or the Tories utterly collapse, or both.
> @Foxy said: > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition. > > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years.
2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win.
3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet.
That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely.
Trying those scenarios on the Tories: There are three ways the Tories recover.
1. May retires and a new right wing leader takes the Tories on a Cameron like journey back to power over 10 years. (Gove?) 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft right figure to cut through and win. (Rory?) 3. The May outriders and advisers (Timothy and Hill) are discredited and leave, May stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet. (Mmm)
> @Pulpstar said: > Lab and Tory are two sclerotic pillars holding each other up. No surprise the rise of Farage is leading to such amazing polling for the Lib Dems.
Our pathetic electoral system is what is holding them up. If people could meaningfully vote for a party they really wanted without wasting their votes we would see very different results at a GE
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote. > > > > > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017. > > > > That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share. > > > > Electoral Calculus is a lot better but even then it is groping in the dark. When voter coalitions break down or form, you need to model those coalitions not past vote shares.
One big improvement Martin Baxter (and the pollsters he depends upon) ought to consider is separate English and Welsh seat calculators. At the moment he uses a Great Britain one (excl NI) and a Scottish one.
The pollsters could easily help by supplying correctly weighted breaks for E, S and W (as YouGov already does for E and S).
Would require larger sample sizes to give useful Wales figures, but personally I’d prefer more infrequent, but more accurate polling.
> @Foxy said: > > @Foxy said: > > > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition. > > > > > > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government > > > > Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees? > > On tuition fees, Layla has written a good article on these yesterday. > > https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1134100275038437378
Interesting article, my question is will the LibDems sell their other grandmother for another shot of power. I am not convinced they won’t.
John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
It's a thrilling feeling. But there's no time to lie back and enjoy it. Gotta work on the next thrill.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @Foxy said: > > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition. > > > > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government > > Is she from the Liberal or SDP wing of the party?
> @TheJezziah said: > Non-snarky question for @TheJezziah and any of our other Corbyn advocates: Can you imagine a situation where you might say, "OK, Jeremy isn't working out, we need somebody else"? How low would Labour have to poll, for instance? > > Realistically I'm not sure there is.... > > I want a left wing domestic and foreign policy offering to vote for, that is inevitably going to attract criticism and attacks. > > If my reaction to that negative reaction is to take out anyone who advocates my politics then my politics are never going to get anywhere. > > Ultimately Corbyn may just end up making it much easier for his left wing successor if he can't reach number 10, his internal enemies will have expended so much energy, goodwill and political capital stopping him that they will be too marginalised to attack his successor anywhere near as successfully. The CUK MPs for example can't do anywhere near as much damage as they have to Corbyn, some others will step down by the time of the next election. > > I'd rather just attract people and keep them on side with our policy offering but Farage has shown how powerful a betrayal narrative can be, if we fail at the next election Labour members aren't going to flock into the arms of progress and other centrist Labour groups for helping secure a Tory government for 5/X more years.
People said the same thing during the Foot era, Labour ultimately ended up electing Blair as leader and went on to win 3 elections on the trot. Without looking it up I doubt Foot ever had leadership ratings as low as Corbyn and I can't recall Labour polling 19% in a GE poll or polling 12% in a UK wide election.
Interesting article, my question is will the LibDems sell their other grandmother for another shot of power. I am not convinced they won’t.
LibDems have long been advocates of PR and working with other parties. I can see another coalition happening in the future, and the inevitable horsetrading. History won't repeat itself though, and it would be impossible to support a government led by a Brexiteer from Left or Right.
> @MrsB said: > as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
Good for you! Well done.
I can still remember the shock when, in 2007, 70 years after our formation, we finally, finally kicked the Labour Party out of power in Edinburgh. By one seat (a recount). It was totally exhilarating. And then the whole independence referendum journey was a joy. Not just that we went from 28% to 45%, but that the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action.
I think that England deserves that feeling too. You cannot get it via the Brexit Party, but you might, just might, get it through voting Green and Lib Dem. If England returns to the Con-Lab two-headed beast you are shafted.
Just a musing on Peterborough and the yellow peril.
If we hear in the coming days that the yellow and black peril worker bees are swarming over the Soke of Peterborough to honey up the voters ,then it will be the first sign that the LibDem sting are in with a realistic chance of placing a queen bee in the hive of Westminster.
> @Foxy said:> LibDems have long been advocates of PR and working with other parties. I can see another coalition happening in the future, and the inevitable horsetrading. History won't repeat itself though, and it would be impossible to support a government led by a Brexiteer from Left or Right.
I hope you’re right, but if you can dump your core shibboleth policy once, you can do it again. I could see them working with Rory, who is a Brexiteer.
The LDs would be better off with a leader who was not part of the coalition. The Lib Dem’s need to do something to secure ex Labour votes at a GE.
Interesting article, my question is will the LibDems sell their other grandmother for another shot of power. I am not convinced they won’t.
I see you are rehearsing a Labour General Election attack line against the LibDems. "Vote LibDem get Tory". With the Brexit chasm between LibDem and Tories I can't see it working this time.
The Tories will use the line "Vote LibDem, get Corbyn" which has more potency. The response is "Vote LibDem, get LibDem" or perhaps "Vote LibDem, control Corbyn".
This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark.
The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more.
It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
> Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
It’s probably stronger than Labour’s commitment not to invade Middle Eastern countries and cause thousands of deaths, if today is “dredge up the sins of the past” day.
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
> What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
The map is truly... fascinating.
I, for one, anticipate the triumphant storming of the Isle of Wight by the forces of eco-socialism with giddy excitement.
I mean, come off it!
I cannot see it either, but there is quite a hippie/surfer dude culture in parts of the Isle. Greens got 15% last GE.
Good point. And contrary to its image, Brighton is a pretty working class city. The bits you see when you get off the train and walk down to the beach are not typical.
> @JackW said: > Just a musing on Peterborough and the yellow peril. > > If we hear in the coming days that the yellow and black peril worker bees are swarming over the Soke of Peterborough to honey up the voters ,then it will be the first sign that the LibDem sting are in with a realistic chance of placing a queen bee in the hive of > Westminster. > > Worth a flutter or is just a flap !?!?
Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely
> @JonCisBack said: > This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark. > > The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more. > > It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
They, like Labour, have a rock-solid core vote that will never desert them. SCon core is about 15%. Yes, I know that they only got 11% at the Euros, but that’s cos some of their core abstained in disgust. They’ll be back when it matters, but 15% will get them nowhere. If only Ruthie would just occasionally try to reach out beyond her core base. But she lacks the insight and vocabulary.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @StuartDickson said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > > > > > > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They will on these numbers. > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592 > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get: > > > > > > > > SNP 57 seats (+22) > > > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2) > > > > Con 0 seats (-13) > > > > Lab 0 seats (-7) > > > > > > > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat). > > > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf > > > > > > What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor. > > > > It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South. > > Find it difficult to believe the Flavible projection; it would require a big shift in habits, although of course, once broken......... > And the Alliance once led the polls IIRC. Much good did it do them when push came to shove, although there was the little matter of the Falklands. > And, if I could comment on the geographical divide, it appears to be NE vs SW, and, again IIRC, there are clear and ancient genetic differences between 'traditional' residents of those areas.
FPTP is a cosy little arrangement for the 2 main parties making it very difficult indeed for any new party to break through in a GE, if one is out of power they simply have to wait for Buggin's turn. It was no coincidence that the SNP, UKIP and BXP breakthroughs came at PR elections. None of the new parties that have broken through in Europe would have done so at a UK GE.
Conservatives and Labour have come out first and second in every election for nearly a century because of our electoral system not because of their individual brilliance. If you don't want to vote for either of them you may as well stay at home.
> @El_Capitano said: > > @Foxy said: > > > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition. > > > > > > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government > > > > Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees? > > It’s probably stronger than Labour’s commitment not to invade Middle Eastern countries and cause thousands of deaths, if today is “dredge up the sins of the past” day.
It’s a key difference that it was not core policy. The equivalent reversal for Labour would have been to introducing charges/ health insurance in the NHS.
On foreign policy, New Labour was openly and actively pro intervention from day one. It was unpopular, but it wasn’t a policy change.
My point in the LibDems is not to cause mischief, but to point out if they want to keep ex Labour votes they need to deal with the coalition issue.
This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark.
The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more.
It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
I agree. The Brexit problem for them is a short one, but what sort of country are we to turn into is the long term question.
A low tax minimal state or a mercantilist Trumpist one? I can see holding onto the Scunthorpe vote fairly problematic. Jingoistic tubthumping doesn't butter a lot of parsnips.
> @Jonathan said: > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
Of course not, on these poll numbers it could be a choice between Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage as PM at the next general election if this trend continues and in that case Swinson would even do a Deal with the Tories if the LDs, Labour and SNP alone were not enough to keep Farage out of No 10 (assuming there were some Tory MPs left of course)
as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
My membership number ends in an X the mid 90’s were good but this is looking better
> > @OldKingCole said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > @StuartDickson said: > > > > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get: > > > > > > > > > > SNP 57 seats (+22) > > > > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2) > > > > > Con 0 seats (-13) > > > > > Lab 0 seats (-7) > > > > > > > > > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat). > > > > > > > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> > > It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
> > And, if I could comment on the geographical divide, it appears to be NE vs SW, and, again IIRC, there are clear and ancient genetic differences between 'traditional' residents of those areas.
Native Celts: Lib Dem, SNP, PC and Green.
Anglo-Saxon immigrants: Brexit Party, Tories and Labour. Send ‘em home to Denmark and Germany!
"Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely"
By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
> @SouthamObserver said: > A year ago today, Pedro Sánchez engineered a vote in the Spanish Parliament, and stitched together a coalition of support, that saw him replace Mariano Rajoy as Prime Minister. Since then he has revived PSOE, run the Spanish right ragged, won an election and transformed Spain’s political trajectory. It shows what a smart, engaging, non-racist, pro-European, pro-NATO social democrat can achieve. Meanwhile, in the UK ...
Same in France with Macron (though Le Pen topped the poll on Sunday), Trudeau in Canada and Ardern in New Zealand.
Farage meanwhile will be seeking to follow the Trump and Salvini model for populist right victory in the US and Italy
> > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> >
>
> > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
>
>
>
> Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
>
> It’s probably stronger than Labour’s commitment not to invade Middle Eastern countries and cause thousands of deaths, if today is “dredge up the sins of the past” day.
It’s a key difference that it was not core policy. The equivalent reversal for Labour would have been to introducing charges/ health insurance in the NHS.
On foreign policy, New Labour was openly and actively pro intervention from day one. It was unpopular, but it wasn’t a policy change.
My point in the LibDems is not to cause mischief, but to point out if they want to keep ex Labour votes they need to deal with the coalition issue.
I left the Labour Party in the early noughties partly over Iraq mendacity, but also because of the New Labour reintroductions of internal market and privatisation of the NHS under Milburn. That was directly against the 1997 manifesto that I had campaigned against. No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
> @Barnesian said: > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > Con 226 > Lab 306 > LD 30 > TBP 12 > Green 1 > PC 4 > SNP 53 > NI `18 > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
> A year ago today, Pedro Sánchez engineered a vote in the Spanish Parliament, and stitched together a coalition of support, that saw him replace Mariano Rajoy as Prime Minister. Since then he has revived PSOE, run the Spanish right ragged, won an election and transformed Spain’s political trajectory. It shows what a smart, engaging, non-racist, pro-European, pro-NATO social democrat can achieve. Meanwhile, in the UK ...
Same in France with Macron (though Le Pen topped the poll on Sunday), Trudeau in Canada and Ardern in New Zealand.
Farage meanwhile will be seeking to follow the Trump and Salvini model for populist right victory in the US and Italy
Macron didnt do badly though last week, and would be in the top 2 in a French style 2 stage contest, and far more transfer friendly.
as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
It must be lovely to have that happy feeling of possible/actual success without it constantly downplayed and written off on here!
> @JonCisBack said: > This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark. > > The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more. > > It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
They have delivered a steadily growing economy with low inflation and record employment. This has allowed them to commit themselves to a significant increase in NHS spending whilst still achieving a falling deficit. After the Gove reforms school education needs to settle a bit. Tertiary education needs sorted, particularly student debt. The report yesterday may be at least a part of the way forward. Even Nick Palmer has been very complimentary about what Gove is doing in respect of the environment.
Attempts to address the issues of an ageing population were stymied a bit after the death tax fiasco of May's appalling 2017 campaign but significant (if insufficient) additional sums have been put into social care, steps have been taken to coordinate this more efficiently with the NHS and the increase in the pension age has been a necessary step.
On infrastructure more clearly needs to be done, especially outside London but we finally have commitments to the 3rd runway, HS2 is making slow progress and a lot of money has been invested in clean energy sources, especially offshore wind.
Its not a perfect score card by any means but the obsession with Brexit is hiding a picture which the right leader could make much of. Osborne's idea of a Northern Powerhouse needs to be picked up again and reinvigorated as well as being replicated in other parts of the country. There seemed some good suggestions as to how that might be done in Lord Kerslake's report yesterday. I hope some of the candidates were paying attention.
> @Cicero said: > Well, one poll and all that... Let's see what Peterborough brings. However, there is no doubt that the Lib Dems are really fired up and after two good elections, the electorate is clearly swinging behind the idea of No Brexit. > > Even if TBP Ltd got Peterborough they are pretty unlikely to get Brecon, so the Lib Dems are still likely to have the wind in their sails with a new leader after the summer. > Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further. > Meanwhile the Tory leadership race is likely to increase party divisions not reduce them. > So after the CHUKers chuck it in, there could be a fair few others seeking to cross the floor... Any bets on the size of the Lib Dem Parliamentary party by year end?
There may not even be a by election in Brecon, the recall petition has not yet got the signatures
FPTP is a cosy little arrangement for the 2 main parties making it very difficult indeed for any new party to break through in a GE, if one is out of power they simply have to wait for Buggin's turn. It was no coincidence that the SNP, UKIP and BXP breakthroughs came at PR elections. None of the new parties that have broken through in Europe would have done so at a UK GE.
Conservatives and Labour have come out first and second in every election for nearly a century because of our electoral system not because of their individual brilliance. If you don't want to vote for either of them you may as well stay at home.
Wut? The SNP won by cleaning up on the FPTP seats. The PR portion of the Holyrood system was designed to make sure there would never be a majority for any party (especially the Nationalists).
> @Roger said: > John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldoze the Tory rubble and start again from scratch.
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that.
> Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
>
> Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
>
> Con 226
> Lab 306
> LD 30
> TBP 12
> Green 1
> PC 4
> SNP 53
> NI `18
>
> Lab 20 short of a majority government.
>
> The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
A big "IF" in there!
The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
> @JackW said: > @HYUFD said: > > "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely" > > ................................................................................................................... > > By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation.
Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place.
the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action.
No, it didn't.
Like Brexit, it sparked an interminable constitutional debate which is old and stale, increasingly entrenched, has stifled any other political conversation, spread rancour and hostility and shows no sign of being resolved "for a generation" at least.
> John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldozer the Tory rubble and start again from scratch.
No one would pretend that they are in a happy place but I still think it was worse in the dog days of IDS's leadership before Cameron and Osborne rebuilt the brand. It can be done again with the right leadership and Labour being in meltdown too helps.
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for Labour, and all of us, than taking No Deal off the table, but it does that too. If only they could see that.
Getting Brexit off the table is much more important for the Tories. Corbyn can see that. That's why he won't help them take it off the table. And by themselves the Tories are unable to.
> @Barnesian said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > > > > > Con 226 > > > Lab 306 > > > LD 30 > > > TBP 12 > > > Green 1 > > > PC 4 > > > SNP 53 > > > NI `18 > > > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority. > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first. > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority > > A big "IF" in there! > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
It all depends on Tory voters.
If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
> @DavidL said: > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world. > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective. > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives. > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
Of course it's quite possible that this poll is a one-off or flags the start of a temporary blip but it's worth remembering that even with FPTP Britain has seen major parties emerge and disappear once every century or so.
I think we may be seeing a shift from the old class-based politics to one where the split is liberal-internationalist versus traditional-insular. Others will have their own names for the two sides of the split.
Somehow I think we have gone too far to revert to the Con-Lab hegmony after Brexit; Brexit itself is symptom rather than a cause of the upheaval we have entered.
> @Foxy said: > No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
> I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
>
> The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @JackW said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely" > > > > ................................................................................................................... > > > > By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral. > > With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation. > > Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place.
> @DavidL said: > > @Roger said: > > > John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns. > > > > With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldozer the Tory rubble and start again from scratch. > > No one would pretend that they are in a happy place but I still think it was worse in the dog days of IDS's leadership before Cameron and Osborne rebuilt the brand. It can be done again with the right leadership and Labour being in meltdown too helps.
Nope. Quite the opposite. The Labour meltdown is actually a big hindrance to a Conservative recovery. You guys *need* the Labour bogeyman in order to scare folk into voting Tory.
The Hague/IDS/Howard years were indeed dog days, but back then you were all still munching from the same Pedigree Chum bowl. Now you’re all over the place like you just saw 100 foxes and have to chase every single one of them.
He seems to have finally woken up to the idea that not many of the candidates are likely to see him continuing as Chancellor. His career in front line politics may well be ending within weeks.
> @Alistair said: > FPTP is a cosy little arrangement for the 2 main parties making it very difficult indeed for any new party to break through in a GE, if one is out of power they simply have to wait for Buggin's turn. It was no coincidence that the SNP, UKIP and BXP breakthroughs came at PR elections. None of the new parties that have broken through in Europe would have done so at a UK GE. > > > > Conservatives and Labour have come out first and second in every election for nearly a century because of our electoral system not because of their individual brilliance. If you don't want to vote for either of them you may as well stay at home. > > Wut? The SNP won by cleaning up on the FPTP seats. The PR portion of the Holyrood system was designed to make sure there would never be a majority for any party (especially the Nationalists).
I think you will find the the initial breakthrough for the SNP came in a PR Holyrood election. Once they replaced one of the top two FPTP benefitted them.
> @DavidL said: > > @DavidL said: > > > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world. > > > > > > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective. > > > > > > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives. > > > > > > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really. > > > > You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent. > > Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work.
If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s.
Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting.
> No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
So left-leaning voters are happy to forgive Labour for the Iraq war, PFI, and Brexit fence-sitting but not LDs for tuition fees? Mmmm...
I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
That was stated to be the sensible approach by many last November. It's too late. Labour cannot let it pass in any form and the Tories have left it too late to pass.
It's now down to which has the more committed and concentrated tribal vote. With their inner city bastions that is labour.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Barnesian said: > > > @Barnesian said: > > > > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows: > > > > > > > > > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20% > > > > > > > > > > Con 226 > > > > > Lab 306 > > > > > LD 30 > > > > > TBP 12 > > > > > Green 1 > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > SNP 53 > > > > > NI `18 > > > > > > > > > > Lab 20 short of a majority government. > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority. > > > > > > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first. > > > > > > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority > > > > A big "IF" in there! > > > > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them. > > It all depends on Tory voters. > > If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality
> > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
>
> >
>
> > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
>
> >
>
> > Con 226
>
> > Lab 306
>
> > LD 30
>
> > TBP 12
>
> > Green 1
>
> > PC 4
>
> > SNP 53
>
> > NI `18
>
> >
>
> > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
>
>
> The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
>
>
> If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
>
> A big "IF" in there!
>
> The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
It all depends on Tory voters.
If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
I can see 80% of the Tory membership going to the Brexit party in that scenario. Indeed, some of them have infiltrated from the Brexit party in the first place.
But I can't see a majority of ordinary decent Tory voters deserting the party for Farage. Some will but not most of them. You are in a better position to judge. What do you think?
> @DavidL said: > https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1134210627453554699 > > > > He seems to have finally woken up to the idea that not many of the candidates are likely to see him continuing as Chancellor. His career in front line politics may well be ending within weeks.
.... so he can say what he really thinks and tell the truth.
Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work.
If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s.
Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting.
It seems PB advice to both Con & Lab is to lean towards revoke or referendum
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @isam said: > > > > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov > > Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party".
Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted?
Comments
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Brecon should be a shoo-in for the yellows if there is a by-election there.
>
> I have no idea as to the strength of feeling in Brecon around the recall petition.
>
> With Peterborough, it is a far more obvious act of criminality
>
> Yes, making up a couple of invoices is illegal - but there was no personal gain, it was a clumsy and wrong way of reclaiming a legitimate expense.
>
> No denying the illegality - but in terms of seriousness, it doesn't feel as bad
>
> However I have no idea how it is playing locally. Anyone got a sense of it?
I have no personal knowledge but I find it unlikely that all the electorate will consider the issue of expenses fraud in isolation from the general political state of play. Surely there will be enough voters pissed off by Brexit to sign the petition?
In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
I expect it’s a value loser but given how quickly things are changing at the moment, and how febrile politics is, I don’t think you can say anything with certainty and BXP are just too short.
The question might sound snarky, but it is genuine one, as Nick is the closest thing we have to an unblinkered Corbyn loyalist.
> Betting on the LDs getting second place in Peterborough might be value.
Ladbrokes have them 8/11 to beat the Tories, which I think might be value. There's a decent chance that either the LDs surge hugely or the Tories utterly collapse, or both.
> UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
>
> In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
I'm not so sure that would be the case this time around - 5% is a probably a tough target to hit in some places...
> UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
>
> In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share.
1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years.
2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win.
3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet.
That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
> >
> > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
>
> That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share.
>
Electoral Calculus is a lot better but even then it is groping in the dark. When voter coalitions break down or form, you need to model those coalitions not past vote shares.
> Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
> UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
>
> In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
I expect you'd all kinds of wild changes, like the 1922-1931 period.
> There are three ways Labour recovers.
>
> 1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years.
> 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win.
> 3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet.
>
> That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely.
>
Labour will not recover till Corbyn is gone. Everyone knows what Labour represent under his leadership.
> There are three ways Labour recovers.
>
> 1. Corbyn retires and new left wing leader takes Labour on a kinnock like journey back to power over 10 years.
> 2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft left figure to cut through and win.
> 3. The Corbynite outriders and advisers are discredited and leave, Corbyn stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet.
>
> That’s it. (3j is by far the most likely.
>
Not a chance of any of them happening, unfortunately. Labour has tied itself to an anti-EU, anti-Semitic, anti-NATO leadership clique. And will pay the penalty. This was never in doubt. The one surprise is the recovery of the LibDems. Who saw that coming?
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1134100275038437378?s=19
> Wouldn't that be great? No Boris. No Corbyn. No Brexit. Just get rid of the obesity problem and the UK could rejoin the list of attractive nations again.
Agree with you regarding obesity, but I consider alcohol and drugs to still be a massive problem in our countries. I’m also increasingly concerned about addiction to gambling.
(Not that any fatties, chancers, drunkards or junkies ever comment on PB. All paragons of virtue.)
> Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
Is she from the Liberal or SDP wing of the party?
There are three ways the Tories recover.
1. May retires and a new right wing leader takes the Tories on a Cameron like journey back to power over 10 years. (Gove?)
2. An unexpected vacancy allows a charismatic soft right figure to cut through and win. (Rory?)
3. The May outriders and advisers (Timothy and Hill) are discredited and leave, May stays but is advised by a more balanced and politically acute cabinet. (Mmm)
> Lab and Tory are two sclerotic pillars holding each other up. No surprise the rise of Farage is leading to such amazing polling for the Lib Dems.
Our pathetic electoral system is what is holding them up. If people could meaningfully vote for a party they really wanted without wasting their votes we would see very different results at a GE
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > UNS is junk where, as here, one or more parties is losing more than half its vote from a vote share of 40% or more. It would imply negative vote share in any seat in which that party polled less than 20% of the vote.
> > >
> > > In practice both main parties have voters almost everywhere. Labour did not lose a deposit in 2017.
> >
> > That is the great strength of Baxter. His model spread vote gain or vote loss around in a logical fashion, so you can’t get daft things like a negative vote share.
> >
>
> Electoral Calculus is a lot better but even then it is groping in the dark. When voter coalitions break down or form, you need to model those coalitions not past vote shares.
One big improvement Martin Baxter (and the pollsters he depends upon) ought to consider is separate English and Welsh seat calculators. At the moment he uses a Great Britain one (excl NI) and a Scottish one.
The pollsters could easily help by supplying correctly weighted breaks for E, S and W (as YouGov already does for E and S).
Would require larger sample sizes to give useful Wales figures, but personally I’d prefer more infrequent, but more accurate polling.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> >
>
> > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
>
>
>
> Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
>
> On tuition fees, Layla has written a good article on these yesterday.
>
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1134100275038437378
Interesting article, my question is will the LibDems sell their other grandmother for another shot of power. I am not convinced they won’t.
> > @Foxy said:
> > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
> >
> > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
>
> Is she from the Liberal or SDP wing of the party?
I think she was nine when the two parties merged.
> Non-snarky question for @TheJezziah and any of our other Corbyn advocates: Can you imagine a situation where you might say, "OK, Jeremy isn't working out, we need somebody else"? How low would Labour have to poll, for instance?
>
> Realistically I'm not sure there is....
>
> I want a left wing domestic and foreign policy offering to vote for, that is inevitably going to attract criticism and attacks.
>
> If my reaction to that negative reaction is to take out anyone who advocates my politics then my politics are never going to get anywhere.
>
> Ultimately Corbyn may just end up making it much easier for his left wing successor if he can't reach number 10, his internal enemies will have expended so much energy, goodwill and political capital stopping him that they will be too marginalised to attack his successor anywhere near as successfully. The CUK MPs for example can't do anywhere near as much damage as they have to Corbyn, some others will step down by the time of the next election.
>
> I'd rather just attract people and keep them on side with our policy offering but Farage has shown how powerful a betrayal narrative can be, if we fail at the next election Labour members aren't going to flock into the arms of progress and other centrist Labour groups for helping secure a Tory government for 5/X more years.
People said the same thing during the Foot era, Labour ultimately ended up electing Blair as leader and went on to win 3 elections on the trot. Without looking it up I doubt Foot ever had leadership ratings as low as Corbyn and I can't recall Labour polling 19% in a GE poll or polling 12% in a UK wide election.
> as a committed Lib Dem activist for almost 25 years, I have to say that having our best ever local election results, our best ever European election results and now leading the opinion polls all within a month has come as a bit of a shock to the system. In a good way, but still a shock.
Good for you! Well done.
I can still remember the shock when, in 2007, 70 years after our formation, we finally, finally kicked the Labour Party out of power in Edinburgh. By one seat (a recount). It was totally exhilarating. And then the whole independence referendum journey was a joy. Not just that we went from 28% to 45%, but that the entire nation felt new, energised, refreshed and ready for action.
I think that England deserves that feeling too. You cannot get it via the Brexit Party, but you might, just might, get it through voting Green and Lib Dem. If England returns to the Con-Lab two-headed beast you are shafted.
If we hear in the coming days that the yellow and black peril worker bees are swarming over the Soke of Peterborough to honey up the voters ,then it will be the first sign that the LibDem sting are in with a realistic chance of placing a queen bee in the hive of
Westminster.
Worth a flutter or is just a flap !?!?
I hope you’re right, but if you can dump your core shibboleth policy once, you can do it again. I could see them working with Rory, who is a Brexiteer.
The LDs would be better off with a leader who was not part of the coalition. The Lib Dem’s need to do something to secure ex Labour votes at a GE.
The Tories will use the line "Vote LibDem, get Corbyn" which has more potency. The response is "Vote LibDem, get LibDem" or perhaps "Vote LibDem, control Corbyn".
The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more.
It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
"Boris Johnson is what you get if you send Donald Trump to Eton."
> Just a musing on Peterborough and the yellow peril.
>
> If we hear in the coming days that the yellow and black peril worker bees are swarming over the Soke of Peterborough to honey up the voters ,then it will be the first sign that the LibDem sting are in with a realistic chance of placing a queen bee in the hive of
> Westminster.
>
> Worth a flutter or is just a flap !?!?
Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely
> This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark.
>
> The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more.
>
> It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
They, like Labour, have a rock-solid core vote that will never desert them. SCon core is about 15%. Yes, I know that they only got 11% at the Euros, but that’s cos some of their core abstained in disgust. They’ll be back when it matters, but 15% will get them nowhere. If only Ruthie would just occasionally try to reach out beyond her core base. But she lacks the insight and vocabulary.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The Conservatives aren't going to lose Wokingham, Maidenhead and Esher.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > They will on these numbers.
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1134208937828462592
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
> > > >
> > > > SNP 57 seats (+22)
> > > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> > > > Con 0 seats (-13)
> > > > Lab 0 seats (-7)
> > > >
> > > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
> > > >
> > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> > >
> > > What is striking about the map is the line from Chester through London to Eastbourne, west of much pretty much everything goes LibDem, whereas north and east of the line it’s Brexit territory outside the big cities, excepting the M11 corridor.
> >
> > It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
>
> Find it difficult to believe the Flavible projection; it would require a big shift in habits, although of course, once broken.........
> And the Alliance once led the polls IIRC. Much good did it do them when push came to shove, although there was the little matter of the Falklands.
> And, if I could comment on the geographical divide, it appears to be NE vs SW, and, again IIRC, there are clear and ancient genetic differences between 'traditional' residents of those areas.
FPTP is a cosy little arrangement for the 2 main parties making it very difficult indeed for any new party to break through in a GE, if one is out of power they simply have to wait for Buggin's turn. It was no coincidence that the SNP, UKIP and BXP breakthroughs came at PR elections. None of the new parties that have broken through in Europe would have done so at a UK GE.
Conservatives and Labour have come out first and second in every election for nearly a century because of our electoral system not because of their individual brilliance. If you don't want to vote for either of them you may as well stay at home.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
>
> >
>
> > Yes, important not to rule out options. Swinsons LibDems may need support from one or other of the also rans in order to form a government
>
>
>
> Is the LD commitment to reversing Brexit as strong as its commitment to removing tuition fees?
>
> It’s probably stronger than Labour’s commitment not to invade Middle Eastern countries and cause thousands of deaths, if today is “dredge up the sins of the past” day.
It’s a key difference that it was not core policy. The equivalent reversal for Labour would have been to introducing charges/ health insurance in the NHS.
On foreign policy, New Labour was openly and actively pro intervention from day one. It was unpopular, but it wasn’t a policy change.
My point in the LibDems is not to cause mischief, but to point out if they want to keep ex Labour votes they need to deal with the coalition issue.
"Is it true that Ed Davey voted Leave?"
...........................................................
No.
A low tax minimal state or a mercantilist Trumpist one? I can see holding onto the Scunthorpe vote fairly problematic. Jingoistic tubthumping doesn't butter a lot of parsnips.
> Jo Swinson does not rule out another Tory coalition.
Of course not, on these poll numbers it could be a choice between Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage as PM at the next general election if this trend continues and in that case Swinson would even do a Deal with the Tories if the LDs, Labour and SNP alone were not enough to keep Farage out of No 10 (assuming there were some Tory MPs left of course)
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > > > Dunno why Flavible paints half of Scotland Lib Dem. If you pump YouGov’s figures into Electoral Calculus Scottish seats calculator you get:
> > > > >
> > > > > SNP 57 seats (+22)
> > > > > Lib Dems 2 seats (-2)
> > > > > Con 0 seats (-13)
> > > > > Lab 0 seats (-7)
> > > > >
> > > > > The only two Lib Dem holds would be Orkney & Shetland and East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson’s seat).
> > > > >
> > > > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5jkiheowo/TheTimes_190529_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
> > > It’s a very neat division between the Anglo-Saxons and the Vikings. The border is essentially Watling Street. To the West is Alfred’s Kingdom to the East is Danelaw. Probably entirely coincidental, but it is very stark. In English politics the East/West divide is just as significant as the North/South.
> > And, if I could comment on the geographical divide, it appears to be NE vs SW, and, again IIRC, there are clear and ancient genetic differences between 'traditional' residents of those areas.
Native Celts: Lib Dem, SNP, PC and Green.
Anglo-Saxon immigrants: Brexit Party, Tories and Labour. Send ‘em home to Denmark and Germany!
"Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely"
...................................................................................................................
By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
> A year ago today, Pedro Sánchez engineered a vote in the Spanish Parliament, and stitched together a coalition of support, that saw him replace Mariano Rajoy as Prime Minister. Since then he has revived PSOE, run the Spanish right ragged, won an election and transformed Spain’s political trajectory. It shows what a smart, engaging, non-racist, pro-European, pro-NATO social democrat can achieve. Meanwhile, in the UK ...
Same in France with Macron (though Le Pen topped the poll on Sunday), Trudeau in Canada and Ardern in New Zealand.
Farage meanwhile will be seeking to follow the Trump and Salvini model for populist right victory in the US and Italy
> Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
>
> Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
>
> Con 226
> Lab 306
> LD 30
> TBP 12
> Green 1
> PC 4
> SNP 53
> NI `18
>
> Lab 20 short of a majority government.
>
> The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov
> This has gone beyond Brexit for me at least. The Tories are so divided, so ineffective, so distracted and so clearly without any coherent plan or vision, that there is no reason at all to vote for them - any of them. Their record of drift and incompetence is stark.
>
> The country faces major issues around the economy, the NHS, schools, the environment, planning, an ageing population, infrastructure etc etc etc and none of it is being addressed. I have no idea what the Tories want any more.
>
> It's actually quite hard to see how they are as high as 19%.
They have delivered a steadily growing economy with low inflation and record employment. This has allowed them to commit themselves to a significant increase in NHS spending whilst still achieving a falling deficit. After the Gove reforms school education needs to settle a bit. Tertiary education needs sorted, particularly student debt. The report yesterday may be at least a part of the way forward. Even Nick Palmer has been very complimentary about what Gove is doing in respect of the environment.
Attempts to address the issues of an ageing population were stymied a bit after the death tax fiasco of May's appalling 2017 campaign but significant (if insufficient) additional sums have been put into social care, steps have been taken to coordinate this more efficiently with the NHS and the increase in the pension age has been a necessary step.
On infrastructure more clearly needs to be done, especially outside London but we finally have commitments to the 3rd runway, HS2 is making slow progress and a lot of money has been invested in clean energy sources, especially offshore wind.
Its not a perfect score card by any means but the obsession with Brexit is hiding a picture which the right leader could make much of. Osborne's idea of a Northern Powerhouse needs to be picked up again and reinvigorated as well as being replicated in other parts of the country. There seemed some good suggestions as to how that might be done in Lord Kerslake's report yesterday. I hope some of the candidates were paying attention.
> Well, one poll and all that... Let's see what Peterborough brings. However, there is no doubt that the Lib Dems are really fired up and after two good elections, the electorate is clearly swinging behind the idea of No Brexit.
>
> Even if TBP Ltd got Peterborough they are pretty unlikely to get Brecon, so the Lib Dems are still likely to have the wind in their sails with a new leader after the summer.
> Corbyn's mishandling of the Campbell affair is going to cost him further.
> Meanwhile the Tory leadership race is likely to increase party divisions not reduce them.
> So after the CHUKers chuck it in, there could be a fair few others seeking to cross the floor... Any bets on the size of the Lib Dem Parliamentary party by year end?
There may not even be a by election in Brecon, the recall petition has not yet got the signatures
> https://twitter.com/markpack/status/1134344496366440449
...............................................................................................
Coming soon to a quality comestibles emporium near you -
"Auchentennach Fine Pies - For The Many Not The Few."
" ...... I thought it would take a generation to recover from 2015, but it seems to only need a Scottish generation!"
...................................................................
Chortle ....
> John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldoze the Tory rubble and start again from scratch.
The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
> @HYUFD said:
>
> "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely"
>
> ...................................................................................................................
>
> By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation.
Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place.
Like Brexit, it sparked an interminable constitutional debate which is old and stale, increasingly entrenched, has stifled any other political conversation, spread rancour and hostility and shows no sign of being resolved "for a generation" at least.
> > @Barnesian said:
>
> > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
>
> >
>
> > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
>
> >
>
> > Con 226
>
> > Lab 306
>
> > LD 30
>
> > TBP 12
>
> > Green 1
>
> > PC 4
>
> > SNP 53
>
> > NI `18
>
> >
>
> > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
>
>
> The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
>
>
> If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
>
> A big "IF" in there!
>
> The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
It all depends on Tory voters.
If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
> I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
>
> The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
>
> FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov
Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party".
I think we may be seeing a shift from the old class-based politics to one where the split is liberal-internationalist versus traditional-insular. Others will have their own names for the two sides of the split.
Somehow I think we have gone too far to revert to the Con-Lab hegmony after Brexit; Brexit itself is symptom rather than a cause of the upheaval we have entered.
> No party keeps clean hands long in government, but that was a step too far for me.
It’s true that no party keeps clean hands, but a special place is reserved for parties that campaign on X and then do the exact opposite.
My worry for Lib Dem’s is that they are reacting to this opportunity in the wrong. Whilst the relief is understandable that they are relevant again, they seem to have immediately engaged smug mode.
What they need to do is recognise they have won now the right to be heard and nothing more. If they want votes at GE they have to deal with the past. The Labour voters they want to keep will not trust them unless they come up with a clear line.
> > @JackW said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > "Even on today's Yougov the LDs would still be 4th in Peterborough on UNS and the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections, so unlikely"
> >
> > ...................................................................................................................
> >
> > By-elections with LibDems on the prowl are never about UNS. It's like an infectious disease that starts slowly and then grips the electorate in a death spiral.
>
> With Brexit dominating all, old assumptions need to be challenged. In the old days, the Lib Dems didn't define themselves very clearly other than as an "alternative to the two main parties" which was attractive in what for a time became a three party system. They could appeal across the board, equally to Con and Lab supporters, usually trying to squeeze one or the other in by-elections depending on the tactical situation.
>
> Now, by contrast, the LDs have virtually ruled out any support from Leave voters, that is 3/5ths of the Peterborough electorate. So in this particular constituency they are fishing in a much smaller pool. At best for them I can see them picking up a bit more than half of the Remain vote while getting none of the Leave vote, and ending up well beaten in 2nd place.
Yes Brexit Party 1st LDs 2nd more likely
Ha! - as opposed to the strong position Labour currently see themselves in?
> > @Roger said:
>
> > John Heggarty (of Barton Bogle and Heggarty) on Radio 4 or saying the Tories are destroying their brand. One of advertising's finest practioners of the last three decades has spoken! If only the Lib Dems could get him to follow through and work for them (or CHUK or the Greens) we might see some very effective and innovative political ad campaigns.
>
>
>
> With a marketing background myself (research, not advertising) I have to concur. The Conservative brand has been built and nurtured over a couple of centuries now, but suddenly its own leaders are taking sledgehammers and smashing the elaborate edifice to bits, blow by blow. If you thought rebuilding Notre Dame is a challenge, wait till some poor sucker has to bulldozer the Tory rubble and start again from scratch.
>
> No one would pretend that they are in a happy place but I still think it was worse in the dog days of IDS's leadership before Cameron and Osborne rebuilt the brand. It can be done again with the right leadership and Labour being in meltdown too helps.
Nope. Quite the opposite. The Labour meltdown is actually a big hindrance to a Conservative recovery. You guys *need* the Labour bogeyman in order to scare folk into voting Tory.
The Hague/IDS/Howard years were indeed dog days, but back then you were all still munching from the same Pedigree Chum bowl. Now you’re all over the place like you just saw 100 foxes and have to chase every single one of them.
> FPTP is a cosy little arrangement for the 2 main parties making it very difficult indeed for any new party to break through in a GE, if one is out of power they simply have to wait for Buggin's turn. It was no coincidence that the SNP, UKIP and BXP breakthroughs came at PR elections. None of the new parties that have broken through in Europe would have done so at a UK GE.
>
>
>
> Conservatives and Labour have come out first and second in every election for nearly a century because of our electoral system not because of their individual brilliance. If you don't want to vote for either of them you may as well stay at home.
>
> Wut? The SNP won by cleaning up on the FPTP seats. The PR portion of the Holyrood system was designed to make sure there would never be a majority for any party (especially the Nationalists).
I think you will find the the initial breakthrough for the SNP came in a PR Holyrood election. Once they replaced one of the top two FPTP benefitted them.
> > @DavidL said:
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> > I think that this poll is a bit frothy, built up by the EU elections and our ever increasing divisions on Brexit but it shows that the grip of the existing parties is faltering in this brave new world.
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> >
>
> > The priority for the Tories is to find a way to deliver Brexit. It's not easy to see how this can be done in the face of an ever more militant remainer dominated Parliament. The moment when it could have been done may well have truly passed while the ERG were playing their childish games. If they can't deliver they face a real risk of being replaced by a party properly committed to that objective.
>
> >
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> > The priority for Labour is to get the agenda back to something else, ideally schools, hospitals and poverty. The longer the agenda remains stuck on Brexit the more of their support is going to switch to the Lib Dems. I think it's too late for even a change of position to help them with this. Just like the Tories they have no credibility with the Euro obsessives.
>
> >
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> > My conclusion is that Corbyn should try to contrive a way that gets Brexit off the table by allowing the MV to pass in some way and subject to some face saving conditions. Many people will be cross but once it is done and dusted they can start to talk about something else, anything else really.
>
>
>
> You think Labour enabling Brexit is going to endear them to their lost support? That’s an adventurous reading of the Lib Dems’ ascent.
>
> Until Brexit is off the table those supporters who have gone to the Lib Dems aren't coming back. They might not come back even then but there are much better chances of them doing so.
Labour have only one choice for getting those voters back and that’s now to full-throatedly back a second referendum. Even that might not work.
If they are seen to have enabled Brexit, those voters, and others who have remained loyal till now, are gone for a generation. It will be a betrayal to rival Ramsay MacDonald’s.
Interestingly, they seem set not to take their Hobson’s choice. This should be exciting.
It's now down to which has the more committed and concentrated tribal vote. With their inner city bastions that is labour.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> >
> > > Following the latest surprise YouGov poll the EMA (which smooths out noise) shows:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 17%, TBP 20%
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Con 226
> >
> > > Lab 306
> >
> > > LD 30
> >
> > > TBP 12
> >
> > > Green 1
> >
> > > PC 4
> >
> > > SNP 53
> >
> > > NI `18
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Lab 20 short of a majority government.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The Brexit Party tearing lumps out of the Tories but only getting 12 seats. LibDems tearing lumps out of the other side of the Tories and getting 30 seats. Labour coming through the middle with only 28% of the vote. But not enough to get a majority.
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party and LDs are both over 100 seats though on the new Yougov, the Tories 4th and Labour down to 202 seats but still first.
> >
> >
> > If the Brexit Party got over 30% as they did in the European Parliament elections however they would likely have a majority
> >
> > A big "IF" in there!
> >
> > The Tory party would have to do a UKIP-style collapse to nearly zero which isn't likely. In practice, the Tories and Brexit party are both going to be fighting on the same ground splitting the Brexit vote. FPTP will wreck them.
>
> It all depends on Tory voters.
>
> If say Tory MPs put Hunt and Gove as the final 2 to members with one of them thus the new Tory leader it is not impossible the Tories could collapse to 10% as more of their voters go to the Brexit Party to ensure Brexit, Deal or No Deal. That would likely then see the Brexit Party get to 30% as last week
I very much doubt that. I would expect that the 19% conservative support includes a very small number of hard core brexiteers who will already be voting for the Brexit party. There are many thousands of us conservatives who do not have an armageddon mentality
But I can't see a majority of ordinary decent Tory voters deserting the party for Farage. Some will but not most of them. You are in a better position to judge. What do you think?
> https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1134210627453554699
>
>
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> He seems to have finally woken up to the idea that not many of the candidates are likely to see him continuing as Chancellor. His career in front line politics may well be ending within weeks.
.... so he can say what he really thinks and tell the truth.
> > @isam said:
> >
> > FWIW BXP weren’t prompted in that YouGov
>
> Indeed, you wonder what the poll result would have been if the respondents didn't first have to select "Some Other Party".
Very good point! How much longer can pollsters leave Brexit Party unprompted?