I will be interested to see how many voted TBP + UKIP get vs Lib Dems + Green + CUK.
All we can tell at the moment is that only about a third are for No Deal Brexit. It’s a good result for TBP from a standing start but it is not a majority.
Christ knows where we go from here.
"Thornberry should tell Milne to fuck off."
As John McD did the other day, in a westminster corridor, according to one of the papers.
> They clearly have. People were talking of results in the region of 40%.
Who was? The polls didn't have them that high. They had them more 30-35% range.
People who want to remain have been putting up arbitrary levels in their head, then talking to themselves about them for the last month or so, for consolation when Farage wins the Euros.
Adding different parties together, declaring why people voted for that party etc is flawed.
e.g. I doubt all Brexit Party voters are no-dealers...there are shockingly consistently a proportion of Lib Dem voters who are Leavers, and there will be loyalists that have voted Tory and Labour despite being against their parties positions on Brexit.
I think what we can say is that there is a strong Leave and Remain element in the electorate and they place that above traditional party allegiances.
They clearly have. People were talking of results in the region of 40%.
Don't be ridiculous. Some people talking such numbers doesn't make not matching them underperforming. By that measure the LDs have massively underperformed because some people dared to suggest they might come top nationally. Both have had great nights, the LDs in a way better than BXP as they have outperformed their polling while BXP is within the range of expected outcomes.
> @kjohnw said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too. > > You are assuming con voters don’t want no deal - evidence ? > >
We can only go by declared party policy. If you want to do otherwise we'll have to estimate how many Brexit Party voters don't actually want No Deal but wanted to give the other parties a kick in the teeth. Don't tell me there aren't people who feel that way.
Maybe we should count only 80% of TBP voters as No Deal supporters. Or 50%.
I will be interested to see how many voted TBP + UKIP get vs Lib Dems + Green + CUK.
All we can tell at the moment is that only about a third are for No Deal Brexit. It’s a good result for TBP from a standing start but it is not a majority.
Christ knows where we go from here.
Instinct says, a general election.
If Corbyn is still in place, Tories would probably win if they commit to an exit,
That's the only way out I can think of now.
No guarantee it would work though.
How many would believe them, though ? In a general election before October, Farage would very probably put up candidates.
In such circumstances almost anything could happen. What would be guaranteed is an awful lot of sitting MPs losing their seats, and they are the ones who would have to vote for an election.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too. > > > > > > Pete Burns back from the dead! 🤣 > > > > Brand New Leaver? > > Is Brexit Dead or Alive? 😳
> @Byronic said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > Thank you, North-West, for declaring and shutting Mark Francois up.< > > +++++ > > Single-handedly, he makes me want to vote.... for anyone but him and his party. > > What a berk. He also managed to make Stephen Kinnock look wise, even magisterial. Which is quite something. > >
Good god, that takes some doing. Francois is definitely up to the task though.
Labour on 14% on its worst national voteshare since 1910 and the Tories on 9% on their worst national voteshare since pre 1832 (when we had rotten boroughs and before even the Great Reform Act and national voteshares were tallied)
But when Leaver politicians are coming up with reasons why we _shouldn't_ treat this as a proxy referendum, it could scarcely be more obvious that they're disappointed by the results!
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Adam Boulton on Sky News adamant that Remain parties have won the most votes. > > Boulton long since ditched any attempt at impartiality.
He and their independent Sky expert also implying revoke defeats no deal by comparing the Brexit party vs Chuk/LD/Green but ignores the UKIP share!
> Labour paying a heavy price for Corbyn being Brexit's bessy mate.....
If you’re in opposition, oppose. Thems the rules.
Nope, doesn't get any less stupid the more times people say that. Labour voted against gay marriage did they, because they were in opposition and opposition's oppose? Oh wait, no they didn't, because you don't automatically oppose things just because you are in opposition in the real world.
Of course, that does not mean in any way shape or form that said opposition should make things easy for the government on issues they have fundamental or complex points of disagreements on. Labour owed the government nothing. But this 'opposition's oppose' mantra people trot out is one of the more egregiously silly cliches out there.
Anyway, it has all been very exciting. LDs have done marvellously, Greens stealthily doing great as well, Farage has done great, nationalists are very happy and the big two are in deep trouble, only comforted by the knowledge they are both in the shit. A good night to all.
> @another_richard said: > So we were told that the LibDems would get their highest vote since 1910. > > Instead they got their highest vote since 2010.
I would say the Brexit Party have met expectations without exceeding them. Tories have underperformed, with a swing from them to Remain parties, as well as BP. This suggests the vote was more Remain than Leave, but you really need to ask a sample of people who voted whether they are Leave or Remain supporters to be sure
Anyone else getting rumours of Corbyn being on the verge? Couple of Labour folk in my Whatsapp group saying they're hearing it, one of them loves him and the other hates him, but saying the same thing. Nothing coming up on usual news channels yet. Too good to be true?
The BBC's map doesn't seem to include a lot of results from London. Does that mean those results are also not included in their overall voting figures at the moment?
But when Leaver politicians are coming up with reasons why we _shouldn't_ treat this as a proxy referendum, it could scarcely be more obvious that they're disappointed by the results!
Saw the notification and thought you might have come back to me on that bet I asked you to price up! Bit late now though
Comments
> Yeah a party that’s only existed for five weeks , compare to CHUK lol
>
> Yawn. No one is talking about CHUK here.
Who?
As John McD did the other day, in a westminster corridor, according to one of the papers.
> ? What?! They really haven't.
>
> They clearly have. People were talking of results in the region of 40%.
What people? People taking bollocks!
> South East MEPs
>
> Brexit
> Nigel Farage
> Alexandra Phillips
> Robert Rowland
> Belinda De Camborne Lucy
>
> LD
> Catherine Bearder
> Antony Hook
> Judith Bunting
>
> Green
> Alexandra Phillips
>
> Con
> Daniel Hannan
>
> Lab
> John Howarth
>
Are there really two Alexandra Phillips representing two different parties?
Better than diazepam I guess
https://brexitcentral.com/author/alexandra-phillips/
https://www.segreens.com/alex_phillips
> @houndtang said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > South East MEPs
> >
> > Brexit
> > Nigel Farage
> > Alexandra Phillips
> > Robert Rowland
> > Belinda De Camborne Lucy
> >
> > LD
> > Catherine Bearder
> > Antony Hook
> > Judith Bunting
> >
> > Green
> > Alexandra Phillips
> >
> > Con
> > Daniel Hannan
> >
> > Lab
> > John Howarth
> >
>
> Are there really two Alexandra Phillips representing two different parties?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1132791067126960128
e.g. I doubt all Brexit Party voters are no-dealers...there are shockingly consistently a proportion of Lib Dem voters who are Leavers, and there will be loyalists that have voted Tory and Labour despite being against their parties positions on Brexit.
I think what we can say is that there is a strong Leave and Remain element in the electorate and they place that above traditional party allegiances.
Edit - and Tommy Robinson quite close behind the Chuks. That's that for them surely?
> Meanwhile:
>
It looks like she's doing her Tommy Cooper impersonation.
> Thank you, North-West, for declaring and shutting Mark Francois up.<
+++++
Single-handedly, he makes me want to vote.... for anyone but him and his party.
What a berk. He also managed to make Stephen Kinnock look wise, even magisterial. Which is quite something.
Brexit Party 31%
Labour 22%
LD 17%
Greens 12%
Tories 8%
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too.
>
> You are assuming con voters don’t want no deal - evidence ?
>
>
We can only go by declared party policy. If you want to do otherwise we'll have to estimate how many Brexit Party voters don't actually want No Deal but wanted to give the other parties a kick in the teeth. Don't tell me there aren't people who feel that way.
Maybe we should count only 80% of TBP voters as No Deal supporters. Or 50%.
In a general election before October, Farage would very probably put up candidates.
In such circumstances almost anything could happen. What would be guaranteed is an awful lot of sitting MPs losing their seats, and they are the ones who would have to vote for an election.
> Robert E Smith announcing the Manchester results.
Glad I’m not the only one thinking that.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132790236470226945
3 Brexit Party
2 Labour
2 LDs
1 Green
Change UK: 47,237
Conservatives: 131,002
English Democrats: 10,045
Greens: 216,581
Labour: 380,193
Lib Dems: 297,507
Brexit: 541,843
UKEUP: 7,125
Ukip: 62,464
Aslam Mohammed: 2,002
Yaxley-Lennon: 38,908
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Labour
3. Lib Dems
4. Brexit
5. Greens
6. Labour
7. Brexit
8. Lib Dems
3 Brexit, 2 Lab, 2 LD, 1 Green, no Tories
**ENDS**
> South East MEPs elected
>
> Brexit Party 4
> LDs 3
> Greens 1
> Tories 1
> Lab 1
>
> Nigel Farage elected
I'm very excited to see what policies people have voted for. When's the manifesto out?
> > @isam said:
>
> > Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too.
>
> >
>
> > Pete Burns back from the dead! 🤣
>
>
>
> Brand New Leaver?
>
> Is Brexit Dead or Alive? 😳
Yes.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > Thank you, North-West, for declaring and shutting Mark Francois up.<
>
> +++++
>
> Single-handedly, he makes me want to vote.... for anyone but him and his party.
>
> What a berk. He also managed to make Stephen Kinnock look wise, even magisterial. Which is quite something.
>
>
Good god, that takes some doing. Francois is definitely up to the task though.
> Adam Boulton on Sky News adamant that Remain parties have won the most votes.
Boulton long since ditched any attempt at impartiality.
Claire Fox
Henrik Nielsen
David Bull
Theresa Griffin
Julie Ward
Chris Davies
Jane Brophy
Gina Dowding
> Labour paying a heavy price for Corbyn being Brexit's bessy mate.....
If you’re in opposition, oppose. Thems the rules.
https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544?s=21
> NW: Bx 3 Lab 2 LD 2 Grn 1
Unfortunately, the SE defeated my D'Hondt mental arithmetic!
Congratulations to Claire Fox.
I shall go to bed.
Hopefully the house will have stopped shaking when I wake up.
> https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132791861695922183
He's back, baby!
Brexit: 29 seats
Lib Dem: 16
Lab: 10
Green: 7
Con: 4
SNP: 3
Plaid Cymru: 1
plus three from Northern Ireland
> Watching Widders with the sound down is very scary.
>
> Congratulations to Claire Fox.
>
Much worse with the sound on.
> Worth remembering
>
> https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
> Worth remembering
>
> https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
Good point, well made
> > @isam said:
> > Worth remembering
> >
> > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
>
> Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
Millions may well be pushing it.
Instead they got their highest vote since 2010.
> > @isam said:
> > Worth remembering
> >
> > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
>
> Good point, well made
Despite our best efforts to turn them away from the voting booth on Thursday
LD 38.9%
Brexit 27.6%
Con 12.1%
Green 10.3%
CHUK 5.3%
Lab 3.7%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132791861695922183
>
> He's back, baby!
bunga bunga!!!
> > @isam said:
> > Worth remembering
> >
> > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
>
> Good point, well made
Also, remember the turn-out was what 35-40%. Whereas the actual referendum was twice that.
> Worth remembering
>
> https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
But when Leaver politicians are coming up with reasons why we _shouldn't_ treat this as a proxy referendum, it could scarcely be more obvious that they're disappointed by the results!
> > @isam said:
>
> > Worth remembering
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
>
>
>
>
>
> Good point, well made
>
> Millions? Really?
Aren't we all EU nationals? *innocent face*
Did not vote party wins.
Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Adam Boulton on Sky News adamant that Remain parties have won the most votes.
>
> Boulton long since ditched any attempt at impartiality.
He and their independent Sky expert also implying revoke defeats no deal by comparing the Brexit party vs Chuk/LD/Green but ignores the UKIP share!
Of course, that does not mean in any way shape or form that said opposition should make things easy for the government on issues they have fundamental or complex points of disagreements on. Labour owed the government nothing. But this 'opposition's oppose' mantra people trot out is one of the more egregiously silly cliches out there.
Anyway, it has all been very exciting. LDs have done marvellously, Greens stealthily doing great as well, Farage has done great, nationalists are very happy and the big two are in deep trouble, only comforted by the knowledge they are both in the shit. A good night to all.
> So we were told that the LibDems would get their highest vote since 1910.
>
> Instead they got their highest vote since 2010.
> If anybody thinks this result is anything but a score draw thy are stupid
Nonsense.
It’s a pitch invasion fought to a standstill.
> Brexit Party come top in England & Wales.
Do you have the England and Wales total figures
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > Worth remembering
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Good point, well made
> >
> > Millions? Really?
>
> Aren't we all EU nationals? *innocent face*
He means the bloody foreigners were allowed to vote, and it's a f***ing disgrace!
> Revoke Petition > Brexit Party
>
> Did not vote party wins.
>
> Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
>
Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
https://twitter.com/search?q=bassetlaw&src=typd
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > Worth remembering
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Good point, well made
> >
> > Millions? Really?
>
> Aren't we all EU nationals? *innocent face*
Not if we can help it :-)
> If anybody thinks this result is anything but a score draw thy are stupid
Agreed, but given how the polling looked before the local elections a score draw is a better result than Remain supporters looked to be headed for.
"Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%".
Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned.
> Result in Dominic Raab's local council area:
>
> LD 38.9%
> Brexit 27.6%
> Con 12.1%
> Green 10.3%
> CHUK 5.3%
> Lab 3.7%
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019
That boy’s a real vote winner.
Didn't TSE have a bet on this?
> > @isam said:
> > Worth remembering
> >
> > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
>
> Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
Typical EU fanatic
> John Mann won't be changing his stance on Brexit...
>
> https://twitter.com/search?q=bassetlaw&src=typd
Bassetlaw isn't Islington - it doesn't matter!
The BXP there got more than Labour, the Tories, Greens and LD COMBINED - in a supposedly safe Labour seat.