> @Pulpstar said: > > @viewcode said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Only 62%? > > > > > > > > > > Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland. > > > > > > > > I'm hopeful the Brexit Party will get 29.99% after Northern Ireland is added. > > > > Will they settle on UK or GB share? You know what they're like... > > UK share for Betfair, should be UK share for Ladbrokes too.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
It's current No deal 35%, revoke 41%, compromise 24%
Brexit Party winning local authorities everywhere bar London, patches of the North West and South West where the LDs ahead and Scotland where the SNP are ahead.
Labour won only a handful of areas, the Tories have won none so far
Do you know, I think Farage (and actually, possibly, the Tory Party) might sleep quite soundly tonight if the message remainers (and in particular the Labour Party) take from this vote is that Remain has won the argument, all the “right sort of people” are voting for it, and the momentum has gone from Leave for any future GE or referendum.
> Thornberry has been got at - now changing her tune on Sky - all about a GE.
Lady Emily looked very, very cross on the BBC
She's a coward then, if she has backed down following a Seamus call. The damage has been done. The majority of viewers will have seen her tirade against Jezza's crap fence perching policy.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
Anyone else getting rumours of Corbyn being on the verge? Couple of Labour folk in my Whatsapp group saying they're hearing it, one of them loves him and the other hates him, but saying the same thing. Nothing coming up on usual news channels yet. Too good to be true?
> @kjohnw said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal. > > Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
But BXP and the 2% of UKIP is the only explicit party for no-deal.
A referendum doesn't solve anything, the divisions would still be there. Remain getting 55% and calling the whole thing off doesn't fix things. What we need is a deal that a clear majority of the population around the centre ground can support.
The time for that has come and gone. People are getting more extreme, not less, there is no deal which will now persuade a bouyant remainer group to change course, nor a deal which will convince the no dealers to back off. Many BXP voters might in theory be ok with leaving any old how, who knows, but the MPs reacting to them will step back from a deal - they already did before a vote had been cast.
The time for that has come and gone. People are getting more extreme, not less, there is no deal which will now persuade a bouyant remainer group to change course, nor a deal which will convince the no dealers to back off. Many BXP voters might in theory be ok with leaving any old how, who knows, but the MPs reacting to them will step back from a deal - they already did before a vote had been cast.
I was saying what I think should happen, not what I expect to happen. I expect things to go from bad to worse to catastrophic.
> @glw said: > It’s going to come to that - or a referendum. > > A referendum doesn't solve anything, the divisions would still be there. Remain getting 55% and calling the whole thing off doesn't fix things. What we need is a deal that a clear majority of the population around the centre ground can support.
That means a very soft Brexit, which the Tories could not accept.
> @Gallowgate said: > Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK . > > That's not what he said though is it? > > No Deal = BXP + UKIP > Revoke = LDEM + GREEN + CHUK + SNP + PLAID > Compromise Leave = LAB + CON
Why do you assume that con voters aren’t no deal when most of con membership supports no deal
Well anyone can type bollocks. How about this one:
LD + BXP > LAB + Tory
True but pointless.
How about just comparing Remain parties to Leave parties and leave it at that. So add in CHUK for a start (they may be rubbish but I don't see why you should miss them out). And how come you decide what Tory voters voted for and how come you don't decide what lab voters voted for. Crystal Ball working only part time?
> @Gallowgate said: > BXP+UKIP > LD+Green > > BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists. > > And? My point is that it isn't "clear" at all. Nothing about this is clear.
> @kjh said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > LDEM + GREEN currently higher than BXP and yet Francois talks of the "British people speaking clearly". > > > > > > Complete joke. > > > > BXP+UKIP > LD+Green > > > > BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists. > > ______________________________________________________________ > > Well anyone can type bollocks. How about this one: > > LD + BXP > LAB + Tory > > True but pointless. > > How about just comparing Remain parties to Leave parties and leave it at that. So add in CHUK for a start (they may be rubbish but I don't see why you should miss them out). And how come you decide what Tory voters voted for and how come you don't decide what lab voters voted for. Crystal working only part time?
Fair to include Chuk but I don't think it changes the result. Tories unabashedly pro-Brexit, Labour are on the fence.
> @kjohnw said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK . > > > > That's not what he said though is it? > > > > No Deal = BXP + UKIP > > Revoke = LDEM + GREEN + CHUK + SNP + PLAID > > Compromise Leave = LAB + CON > > Why do you assume that con voters aren’t no deal when most of con membership supports no deal
because Tory members will have voted BXP if they wanted No Deal!!!!
CUK were likely done the instant the LDs did even better than expected in the locals. A shame for them. I almost voted for them but the toin coss did not favour them.
I will be interested to see how many voted TBP + UKIP get vs Lib Dems + Green + CUK.
All we can tell at the moment is that only about a third are for No Deal Brexit. It’s a good result for TBP from a standing start but it is not a majority.
I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
It's a strong rejection of Revoke It's a strong rejection of a second referendum. It's a strong rejection of compromise.
I really don't think they have. They have not met the very highest of the polling, but come on, they have topped the poll, despite UKIP still picking up a residual amount of support. It's hardly on their shoulders that overall explicitly remain parties outnumber explicitly leave ones.
I will be interested to see how many voted TBP + UKIP get vs Lib Dems + Green + CUK.
All we can tell at the moment is that only about a third are for No Deal Brexit. It’s a good result for TBP from a standing start but it is not a majority.
Christ knows where we go from here.
Instinct says, a general election.
If Corbyn is still in place, Tories would probably win if they commit to an exit,
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal. > > It's a strong rejection of Revoke > It's a strong rejection of a second referendum. > It's a strong rejection of compromise. > > Nothing has won a majority. Not surprisingly. Spot on
It's not even the voting system, a general election will inevitably be about more than Brexit. A Labour Brexiteer is not likely to vote Conservative even if they have an attractive Brexit offer.
The next general election is going to be harder than ever to predict.
Comments
> > @viewcode said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> >
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> >
> > > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174
> >
> >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Only 62%?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland.
> >
> >
> >
> > I'm hopeful the Brexit Party will get 29.99% after Northern Ireland is added.
> >
> > Will they settle on UK or GB share? You know what they're like...
>
> UK share for Betfair, should be UK share for Ladbrokes too.
TBP will clear 30% easily.
> At least Adonis has to go home with his tail between his legs tonight.
I'm pleased the Brexit Party sent Gerard Batten packing too.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
>
>
> It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
It's current No deal 35%, revoke 41%, compromise 24%
Brexit Party winning local authorities everywhere bar London, patches of the North West and South West where the LDs ahead and Scotland where the SNP are ahead.
Labour won only a handful of areas, the Tories have won none so far
Why back down now?
What has she to lose?
That is an earthquake.
Adonis?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
>
>
> It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
Brexit Party 915686
LDs 653743
Greens 3432249
Tories 260277
Labour 184678
> Who will be the stalking horse who announces they are standing against Jezza in next few days?
>
> Adonis?
It needs to be a credible human being. Something Adonis has never been
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/26/brexit-top-tories-would-bring-down-any-pm-who-backs-no-deal
.... and they would risk evisceration in a General Election without having delivered Brexit ?
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
> >
> >
> > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
>
> Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
But BXP and the 2% of UKIP is the only explicit party for no-deal.
> Tories behind Greens in the South East?
>
> That is an earthquake.
Remember it includes the Chilterns etc.
(but still a surprise-ish)
No Deal = BXP + UKIP
Revoke = LDEM + GREEN + CHUK + SNP + PLAID
Compromise Leave = LAB + CON
> SE: Greens beat the Tories!
Bang! That’s amazing!!
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1132788319941734401
He should just focus on his allotment. I believe there is some weeding that needs doing.
How awful for them. I don't know how I could endure that.
> It’s going to come to that - or a referendum.
>
> A referendum doesn't solve anything, the divisions would still be there. Remain getting 55% and calling the whole thing off doesn't fix things. What we need is a deal that a clear majority of the population around the centre ground can support.
That means a very soft Brexit, which the Tories could not accept.
> Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
>
> That's not what he said though is it?
>
> No Deal = BXP + UKIP
> Revoke = LDEM + GREEN + CHUK + SNP + PLAID
> Compromise Leave = LAB + CON
Why do you assume that con voters aren’t no deal when most of con membership supports no deal
Brexit Party 4
LDs 3
Greens 1
Tories 1
Lab 1
Nigel Farage elected
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > LDEM + GREEN currently higher than BXP and yet Francois talks of the "British people speaking clearly".
> >
> > Complete joke.
>
> BXP+UKIP > LD+Green
>
> BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists.
______________________________________________________________
Well anyone can type bollocks. How about this one:
LD + BXP > LAB + Tory
True but pointless.
How about just comparing Remain parties to Leave parties and leave it at that. So add in CHUK for a start (they may be rubbish but I don't see why you should miss them out). And how come you decide what Tory voters voted for and how come you don't decide what lab voters voted for. Crystal Ball working only part time?
> BXP+UKIP > LD+Green
>
> BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists.
>
> And? My point is that it isn't "clear" at all. Nothing about this is clear.
Yes there is. A couple of things are clear.
Foremost that muddled "compromises" are dead.
Change UK: 105,832
Conservatives: 260,277
Greens: 343,249
Labour: 184,678
Lib Dems: 653,743
Brexit: 915,686
Ukip: 56,487
(and some other irrelevant bits and pieces)
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Lib Dems
3. Brexit
4. Greens
5. Lib Dems
6. Brexit
7. Conservatives
8. Brexit
9. Lib Dems
10. Labour
Brexit 4, LD 3, Green 1, Con 1, Lab 1
**ENDS**
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > LDEM + GREEN currently higher than BXP and yet Francois talks of the "British people speaking clearly".
> > >
> > > Complete joke.
> >
> > BXP+UKIP > LD+Green
> >
> > BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists.
>
> ______________________________________________________________
>
> Well anyone can type bollocks. How about this one:
>
> LD + BXP > LAB + Tory
>
> True but pointless.
>
> How about just comparing Remain parties to Leave parties and leave it at that. So add in CHUK for a start (they may be rubbish but I don't see why you should miss them out). And how come you decide what Tory voters voted for and how come you don't decide what lab voters voted for. Crystal working only part time?
Fair to include Chuk but I don't think it changes the result. Tories unabashedly pro-Brexit, Labour are on the fence.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Not really , BXT plus Con plus UKIP > ld plus green plus CHUK .
> >
> > That's not what he said though is it?
> >
> > No Deal = BXP + UKIP
> > Revoke = LDEM + GREEN + CHUK + SNP + PLAID
> > Compromise Leave = LAB + CON
>
> Why do you assume that con voters aren’t no deal when most of con membership supports no deal
because Tory members will have voted BXP if they wanted No Deal!!!!
Brexit
Nigel Farage
Alexandra Phillips
Robert Rowland
Belinda De Camborne Lucy
LD
Catherine Bearder
Antony Hook
Judith Bunting
Green
Alexandra Phillips
Con
Daniel Hannan
Lab
John Howarth
> It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
>
> When the "No Deal" party is comfortably topping the poll?
The core Tory vote of old isn't a national majority, though. The Tories never won an election on it alone.
If BXP had won or win more than 33-35% it would be a different ballgame, though, and I'm sure they know it.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132789003890118657
FPTP system renders it meaningless.
Off to bed now.
I will be interested to see how many voted TBP + UKIP get vs Lib Dems + Green + CUK.
All we can tell at the moment is that only about a third are for No Deal Brexit. It’s a good result for TBP from a standing start but it is not a majority.
Christ knows where we go from here.
> Ultimately Brexit Party have underperformed here.
? What?! They really haven't.
> Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too.
You are assuming con voters don’t want no deal - evidence ?
> Remain outpolls No Deal in SE England, too.
>
> Pete Burns back from the dead! 🤣
Brand New Leaver?
> You can spin this result in favour of almost any position: No Deal, Deal, or Remain.
I think I shall spin it for deadlock - I think that Deadlock has triumphed
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
>
>
> It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
It's a strong rejection of Revoke
It's a strong rejection of a second referendum.
It's a strong rejection of compromise.
Nothing has won a majority. Not surprisingly.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Ultimately Brexit Party have underperformed here.
>
> ? What?! They really haven't.
Yeah a party that’s only existed for five weeks , compare to CHUK lol
> You can spin this result in favour of almost any position: No Deal, Deal, or Remain.
Maybe we should put these three options to the people?
> You can spin this result in favour of almost any position: No Deal, Deal, or Remain.
Can you spin it in favour of Corbyn ?
If Corbyn is still in place, Tories would probably win if they commit to an exit,
That's the only way out I can think of now.
No guarantee it would work though.
> ? What?! They really haven't.
>
> They clearly have. People were talking of results in the region of 40%.
Who was? The polls didn't have them that high. They had them more 30-35% range.
Obviously that cannot be proven definitively.
> https://twitter.com/alexforeurope/status/1132789439527313409
I bet they're really scared.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Ultimately Brexit Party have underperformed here.
>
> ? What?! They really haven't.
They're on slightly less than the average of the opinion polls, which was about 33%.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
> >
> >
> > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
>
> It's a strong rejection of Revoke
> It's a strong rejection of a second referendum.
> It's a strong rejection of compromise.
>
> Nothing has won a majority. Not surprisingly.
Spot on
The next general election is going to be harder than ever to predict.
> South East MEPs
>
> Brexit
> Nigel Farage
> Alexandra Phillips
> Robert Rowland
> Belinda De Camborne Lucy
>
> LD
> Catherine Bearder
> Antony Hook
> Judith Bunting
>
> Green
> Alexandra Phillips
>
> Con
> Daniel Hannan
>
> Lab
> John Howarth
>
How odd that two of the south east MEPs have exactly the same name spelt the same?
I thought it was a mistake when I heard the returning officer repeat the same name again!
Apparently according to Rachel Johnson on Sky Change UK had a bad night but at least they changed the weather?
> You can spin this result in favour of almost any position: No Deal, Deal, or Remain.
I can certainly remember plenty of comments that UKIP had underperformed back in 2014.