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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories get wiped out in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, The South West, and Wales
EAST MIDLANDS DECLARED
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Complete joke.
> https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174?s=21
Only 62%?
Well done Greens.
Tories aiming for 4 at best.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174?s=21
>
> Only 62%?
Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland.
> Any Tory or Labour MP with a pulse should have known this was coming down the pike, the moment these elections were confirmed. Their very existence is at best an acknowledgement that our politicians in Westminster have been inept - at worst an acknowledgment that they have conspired to prevent any type of Brexit.
550+ MPs have been told their parties are utter crap.
Seismic.
> LDEM + GREEN currently higher than BXP and yet Francois talks of the "British people speaking clearly".
>
> Complete joke.
“Let’s add up those columns we don’t like and ignore all the others”
It may well be that neither can win outright by definitively choosing one extreme or another, but they will not really move forward until they do so and take the hit if that is what it requires.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174?s=21
> >
> > Only 62%?
>
> Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland.
I'm hopeful the Brexit Party will get 29.99% after Northern Ireland is added.
Corbyn should send a thank you note to Chuka.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1132782138556858368?s=19
> LDEM + GREEN currently higher than BXP and yet Francois talks of the "British people speaking clearly".
>
> Complete joke.
BXP+UKIP > LD+Green
BXP + Tory + UKIP > LD + Green + Nationalists.
Likely to rise, but not nesssarily by very much
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
The Conservatives were not a Leave party in 2014, although slightly more than half their voters were.
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
Erm, no.
It is not possible to apportion the surviving supporters of the muddle parties to one side or the other.
Lega 32-33%
PD 21-22
5 Stars 19
FI 8-9
FdI 5-6
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
Certainly the results don't suggest No Deal has the support of more than about a third of the electorate - or indeed as much support as Revoke.
A problem for Boris Johnson, I'd have thought.
> Map now available:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131
This is what I don't get. We've had the East of England results for an hour, and yet large swathes are blank
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
Well, a lot of them probably said "fuck it". If there is another referendum, they may be more motivated.
Liverpool (North West) result:
Lab: 41.4% (-10.4)
Brex: 18.9% (+18.9)
LDem: 17.2% (+12.2)
Grn: 15.7% (+5.4)
UKIP: 2.3% (-18.6)
Con: 2.1% (-5.0)
Not quite CON gain Bootle I'm afraid.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
>
> Erm, no.
>
> It is not possible to apportion the surviving supporters of the muddle parties to one side or the other.
Spot on
Surely terminal for Richard Leonard if so?
Wiltshire, South West
The Brexit Party
Share %35.8(+35.8)
Liberal Democrats
Share %25.1(+15.0)
Green
Share %16.3(+6.5)
Conservative
Share %11.3(-24.2)
Labour
Share %4.2(-5.7)
Change UK
Share %3.2(+3.2)
UKIP
Share %3.2(-28.2)
English Democrats
Share %0.6(-0.4)
Neville Seed
Share %0.2(+0.2)
Larch Maxey
Share %0.1(+0.1)
Mothiur Rahman
Share %0.0(+0.0)
Did Mr Rahman literally get 0, or are they rounding down?
> https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1132783509322510338
If Scons are happy with 12% of the vote then fine by me. I can remember the dark days when my party was at 14%. We weren’t remotely happy. It made us tough, it made us listen and it made us work.
Roll up yer sleeves Ruth. You’ve got a Boris to beat.
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
>
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Only 62%?
>
> >
>
> > Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland.
>
>
>
> I'm hopeful the Brexit Party will get 29.99% after Northern Ireland is added.
>
> Will they settle on UK or GB share? You know what they're like...
Supposed to be UK, someone on here said yesterday.
> https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1132784234622521344
Still voting for the donkeys with the red rosettes in Liverpool, if nowhere else.
That seems like one of the only clear conclusions from this, but if the Tories will be determined to elect Boris on a no-deal ticket, then that's what I suppose they'll do.
> Looks like it's going to be touch and go as to whether the Brexit Party gets 30% in the UK.
Looks like they'll scrape it, whilst Labour should now avoid being overtaken by the Greens.
Another tremendous victory for Corbyn.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
>
> Well, a lot of them probably said "fuck it". If there is another referendum, they may be more motivated.
Indeed. Many Leave voters have never voted in EU elections and weren't about to start now when we should already have left the EU.
To me it looks like the country is still virtually split 50/50 and another referendum really could go either way and would probably be 52/48 again....
> From declared councils... Hannan might get 9th or 10th place
Pretty much what we expected. He was always going to be elected.
To me it looks like the country is still quite evenly divided, maybe Remain has a small edge, but more polarised than ever. There is no easy way out of this, and I think that either of the extreme options of No Deal or Revoke would be dangerous.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
>
>
>
> The Conservatives were not a Leave party in 2014, although slightly more than half their voters were.
>
> Indeed. But whatever assumption you make about Tory and Labour voters - significant proportions of which would have been leavers - there’s a significant leave to remain swing since 2014 in these results.
People were assuring me five years ago, on this forum, that 70% of the vote had gone to pro-EU parties.
>
> Italy looks like
>
> Lega 32-33%
> PD 21-22
> 5 Stars 19
> FI 8-9
> FdI 5-6
Salvini and Lega landslide in Italy then
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132784996417232897
>
>
>
> None for Labour?
>
> Surely terminal for Richard Leonard if so?
A shame. I liked him. I really, really, really liked him. He was even better than Jim Murphy.
> Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
>
> Entirely predictable spinning.
>
>
> To me it looks like the country is still quite evenly divided, maybe Remain has a small edge, but more polarised than ever. There is no easy way out of this, and I think that either of the extreme options of No Deal or Revoke would be dangerous.
It’s going to come to that - or a referendum.
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
>
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1132781828601991174
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Only 62%?
>
> >
>
> > Missing the results from two of the largest English regions (NW & SE,) plus Scotland.
>
>
>
> I'm hopeful the Brexit Party will get 29.99% after Northern Ireland is added.
>
> Will they settle on UK or GB share? You know what they're like...
UK share for Betfair, should be UK share for Ladbrokes too.
Labour projected to finish 5th with 9%, 1pt only ahead of the Greens
> Thornberry has been got at - now changing her tune on Sky - all about a GE.
Seamus been on the blower?
Brexit Party 2019: It’s fair to say there’s been a swing from Remain to Leave since 2014. But the tide is receding compared to 2016.
> Thornberry has been got at - now changing her tune on Sky - all about a GE.
Lady Emily looked very, very cross on the BBC
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
On what grounds? Cameron's Tories were pro Remain in 2014 the Tories are now pro Leave.
UKIP got just 27% in 2014, Brexit Party plus UKIP plus Tories on 44% tonight
> > @ydoethur said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132784996417232897
> >
> >
> >
> > None for Labour?
> >
> > Surely terminal for Richard Leonard if so?
>
> A shame. I liked him. I really, really, really liked him. He was even better than Jim Murphy.
Could yet manage it, I think, taking the SNP's third. But unlikely as most councils in.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1132782100904652800
>
>
>
>
>
> No difficulty there. The Tories need to represent one or the other. Either exit properly or don't bother.
>
> Pretending they could unify the positions within the party just paralysed them. It is paralysing Labour to a lesser degree.
>
> It may well be that neither can win outright by definitively choosing one extreme or another, but they will not really move forward until they do so and take the hit if that is what it requires.
Precisely. People make out like "compromise" or being in the "middle" is automatically right or the recipe for success. Often it is but sometimes its the worst possible option.
If the M6 is freely-flowing then whether you go 70mph Southbound or 70mph Northbound is rather irrelevant, you will be OK either way. If you hesitate, stall, prevaricate and stop on the motorway undecided whether to go North or South you are likely to be in an accident. If you stand there in the middle of the road as a hapless pedestrian watching the vehicles go past you'll get ran over.
Pick a direction of travel and go. In or out.
> Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
> Looks like it's going to be touch and go as to whether the Brexit Party gets 30% in the UK.
Plenty of strong areas to be added yet based on BBC's map.
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
>
> >
>
> > Erm, no.
>
> >
>
> > It is not possible to apportion the surviving supporters of the muddle parties to one side or the other.
>
>
>
> Spot on
>
> Of course not. But if you take a range of different educated guesses and, whichever you choose, the result comes out the same, you can safely conclude that leave support has dropped regardless of how the muddle parties break. In reality I suspect things are worse for leave as my bet would be most of the remaining Tories are remainers.
Most of the remaining Tories are more likely supporters of May's Deal. Apart from blind loyalty/robotic voting, there is no other reason left to back the Conservatives in this particular election.
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers.
>
> >
>
> > Erm, no.
>
> >
>
> > It is not possible to apportion the surviving supporters of the muddle parties to one side or the other.
>
>
>
> Spot on
>
> Of course not. But if you take a range of different educated guesses and, whichever you choose, the result comes out the same, you can safely conclude that leave support has dropped regardless of how the muddle parties break. In reality I suspect things are worse for leave as my bet would be most of the remaining Tories are remainers.
You would be completely wrong. Just look at the microcosm on here. At least 3 very sttong Leave supporters didnt vote for TBP. There are also many Leave supporyers who refused to vote in these elections on principle.
As i said on here several days ago, anyone trying to gauge the public view on Remain vs Leave based on these elections is on a fools errand.
> Overall and despite BXP topping the poll, Leave is clearly in retreat compared to 2014, however you cut the numbers. <
+++++
I've been crunching the maths, and I think you are right.
The vote has been massively polarised, but Remain is, now, significantly ahead. Even, e.g, in Brexity Wales.
The other fact is, Leavers have flocked to one flag - Nigel! - and the Remainers have fragmented. So it looks like a Leaver victory, but it isn't, if you dig down.
The challenge is for Remainers to find one single party to represent their cause, otherwise they are doomed, despite being the plurality (at least of voters).
Her phone must have been on fire.