> @RobD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party > > > > Did not vote party wins. > > > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight. > > > > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
Anyone else getting rumours of Corbyn being on the verge? Couple of Labour folk in my Whatsapp group saying they're hearing it, one of them loves him and the other hates him, but saying the same thing. Nothing coming up on usual news channels yet. Too good to be true?
Brexit Party achieved expectations. Greens massively overshot them. LDs overachieved. Lab very disappointed. Tories despair. Chuk UKIP, checking the terms of the pet insurance for euthanasia.
Surprise Jezza didn't take the opportunity to moan about 13 million in poverty, rural bus service cuts and the fact Maureen from Margate had to wait 15 mins in the Post Office the other week.
> @Chris said: > I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split.
A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
> @another_richard said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party > > > > > > Did not vote party wins. > > > > > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight. > > > > > > > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity? > > Can bots vote ?
Because voting takes some effort, and young people are lazy.
Greens win in Bristol and Brighton. They won't get the headlines, but they are the story Europe wide. Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
> @RobD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party > > > > Did not vote party wins. > > > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight. > > > > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
I know quite a few signatures from the petition that still voted Labour because loyalty to Corbyn was more important than sending a clear signal on Brexit.
> @isam said: > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
> @Chris said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Michael Thrasher on Sky News: > > > > "Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%". > > > > Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned. > > It looks as though they're going to be just under 31%, and the Lib Dems just below 20%.
Northern Ireland usually reduces each party's share of the vote by about 1%.
> @brendan16 said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > Its not a revoke country either.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1132794914977325057 > > Surprise Jezza didn't take the opportunity to moan about 13 million in poverty, rural bus service cuts and the fact Maureen from Margate had to wait 15 mins in the Post Office the other week.
In fairness, Post Office provision in Margate is not great.
> I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split.
A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
This result tells us the country is hopelessly divided.
> @SouthamObserver said: > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
The country is probably split three ways, with two-thirds of people against each of the options. An impossible position. I hope we can get through this.
> @dixiedean said: > Greens win in Bristol and Brighton. They won't get the headlines, but they are the story Europe wide. > Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
Tories failing to win a single LA shows the wholesale shipping of their vote to Farage I think
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
> @KentRising said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party > > > > > > > > Did not vote party wins. > > > > > > > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight. > > > > > > > > > > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity? > > > > Can bots vote ? > > Because voting takes some effort, and young people are lazy.
I thought they were yearning to go and pick potatoes in Poland and wash cars in Cluj.
They won the vote in Bristol and Brighton & Hove, in each case well ahead of the LDs, with Brexit 3rd and Labour 4th.
More generally, I think the Greens were a useful repository for those Left-leaning voters who are (1) insufficiently tribal to contemplate dumping Labour, and (2) who wouldn't touch the Lib Dems with a ten-foot bargepole (because they're not socialist enough, or because of the Coalition, or both.)
This would appear to be a reasonably large constituency, although whether it can get them anything beyond the return of Caroline Lucas in a GE is another matter. If they're going to win anywhere else under FPTP, this result suggests they should concentrate what resources they have on Bristol.
> @dixiedean said: > Greens win in Bristol and Brighton. They won't get the headlines, but they are the story Europe wide. > Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Chris said: > > I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting. > > As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split. > > A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
He certainly looks like the best of a bad bunch to me.
We already give 1.5 billion Commonwealth nationals the potential right to vote in our elections and referedums - how many more do we need to give votes to!
EU nationals cannot vote in Irish referendums - not sure why we should?
And it would be odd if parliament decided to use a different franchise than is used to elect them.
> @isam said: > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
> @brendan16 said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > Its not a revoke country either.
We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds.
Adam Boulton just said the Greens beat the Tories in 1989. They didn't, the Greens got 14.5% and the Tories 33.7% Maybe he was thinking of the Greens beating the SLD.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Floater said: > > > > When amazingly the need for further votes would end. > > No, there would be opportunities for further votes, on things like joining the Euro.
You really would not like the result of that vote.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @brendan16 said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > Its not a revoke country either. > > Nope, it’s a total mess.
I do t how u can say it's not no deal but might be for revoke.
They won the vote in Bristol and Brighton & Hove, in each case well ahead of the LDs, with Brexit 3rd and Labour 4th.
More generally, I think the Greens were a useful repository for those Left-leaning voters who are (1) insufficiently tribal to contemplate dumping Labour, and (2) who wouldn't touch the Lib Dems with a ten-foot bargepole (because they're not socialist enough, or because of the Coalition, or both.)
This would appear to be a reasonably large constituency, although whether it can get them anything beyond the return of Caroline Lucas in a GE is another matter. If they're going to win anywhere else under FPTP, this result suggests they should concentrate what resources they have on Bristol.
Bristol NW was one of a tiny number of key Green target seats last time.
> @StuartDickson said: > > @another_richard said: > > So we were told that the LibDems would get their highest vote since 1910. > > > > Instead they got their highest vote since 2010. > >
Well, it's the first time the Liberal (Democrat)s have outpolled the Tories since 1906 I think.
> @glw said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU! > > > > > > > > > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal. > > > > It's a strong rejection of Revoke > > It's a strong rejection of a second referendum. > > It's a strong rejection of compromise. > > > > Nothing has won a majority. Not surprisingly. > > Indeed the polarised "no majority for anything" we've seen in the Commons has spread to the public.
Or the polarised "no majority for anything" we've seen in the Commons fairly reflects the public.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @isam said: > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
I'm not sure one can add Labour's share to the Remain total.
LD + Green + ChUK getting close to the 6 million (supposed) signatures for the Revoke A50 petition and about equal with Brexit + UKIP share of the vote
No clear winner, but the main media message will probably be that both Labour and the Conservatives will need to change to a clear policy very quickly. Further polarisation and no clear solution
Key numbers are that UKIP + Cons lost 40 % points while Brexit Party gained 33% . The other 7% went to Remain parties. So it probably was a Remain majority in the vote.
Project Fear may have been a bit weak on specifics, but the basic premise that a Leave victory would put the country in a worse plight than your worst nightmares is surely looking pretty solid now?
> A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
You mean something like Brexit but with a customs union, single market alignment and guarantees oin environmental and workers' rights? Yes...I'd go for that, but it doesn't seem very popular...
> @AndyJS said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > The country is probably split three ways, with two-thirds of people against each of the options. An impossible position. I hope we can get through this.
Nothing is clear when half of those who voted in the referendum voted for the stay at home party , in another referendum remain vs no deal I think no deal would win unless we had a deal Better than TM deal
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > > > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum. > > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU has been adamant it won't offer any new deal, where can we all go from here ?
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
I can’t imagine either extreme will be deterred by tonight’s results. The fact is we voted to leave, and in the absence of a drastic change of mind, which could have been shown here, we have to leave.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour. > > > > > > You cant include Labour, be real. > > > > Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this. > > > > The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists. > > > > > > Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them. > > Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
********************************************************************************************************* If you want to try to assess where public opinion is on these votes, you have to make assumptions about the Remain/Leaver split for both Tory and Labour voters. You can't simply ignore them!
My guess is the Tory split is 2/1 Leave to Remain (a lot of Tory Leavers have moved to the Brexit Party and are counted there) For Labour my guess is 1/2 Leave to Remain. Some Lab Leavers will have gone to Brexit and some Remainers to LD.
Adding everything up gives 54% Remain, 46% Leave.
You have to change my assumptions about Tory and Labour Leave/Remain splits to an unrealistic extent to get a Leave majority out of this! Not to say some people won't try.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Chris said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Michael Thrasher on Sky News: > > > > > > "Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%". > > > > > > Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned. > > > > It looks as though they're going to be just under 31%, and the Lib Dems just below 20%. > > Northern Ireland usually reduces each party's share of the vote by about 1%.
The reduction will be in proportion to the vote share. Someone worked it out as about 0.8% for Brexit. It'll be more like 0.5% for the Lib Dems.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @brendan16 said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > Its not a revoke country either. > > We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds.
If I wanted to look on the bright side I would say that is not true. We are a country split approximately into 6ths. 1/6th voted No Deal-ish. 1/6th voted Remain/Revoke and 4/6ths either did not vote or voted in such a way we cannot tell what they want.
That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Chris said: > > I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting. > > As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split. > > A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
I think you could also draw the conclusion from this vote that any such effort is likely now doomed to failure.
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
>
>
> Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
>
> I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ?
Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @isam said: > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > > Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
Gove to win the PM spot and propose EFTA membership.
Okay I know it is my own personal unicorn but right now it is all I have.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > > > > > > > > > > > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum. > > > > > > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually. > > > > I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again. > > > > As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ? > > Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half
And if I add it equally, still no majority. What about the SNP, for instance ? There's no clarity.
1in 3 want to flick V signs at Europe and hunker down for autarky. 1 in 3 want to stay in the EU, even though we voted to Leave. 1in 3 think the major issues can be addressed sensibly whether we are inside or out of,the EU. Never thought I would have a warm fellow feeling towards my Tory voting Comrades.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > > > > > Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament. > > I can’t imagine either extreme will be deterred by tonight’s results. The fact is we voted to leave, and in the absence of a drastic change of mind, which could have been shown here, we have to leave.
Perhaps that argument would be more effective accompanied by an animated gif of a stamping foot.
Dire night for both Labour and (especially) the Tories - but the 'way forward' seems a lot clearer for the latter (deliver a "Brexit" of some description, easier said than done) than the former (is it the party of Islington or Immingham?)
> > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
>
> >
>
> > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
>
>
>
> I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
>
>
>
> As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ?
>
> Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half
And if I add it equally, still no majority. What about the SNP, for instance ? There's no clarity.
I’m not the one claiming there is a majority for my side on the back of tonight’s results
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @brendan16 said: > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > > > Its not a revoke country either. > > > > We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds. > > If I wanted to look on the bright side I would say that is not true. We are a country split approximately into 6ths. 1/6th voted No Deal-ish. 1/6th voted Remain/Revoke and 4/6ths either did not vote or voted in such a way we cannot tell what they want. > > That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
That is certainly plausible given what happened between 2014EP and 2015GE, but in general opinion polling seems to support the thirds hypothesis.
That said, I am ever hopeful that minds can be changed.
> @williamglenn said: > > @KentRising said: > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse." > > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
>
>
>
>
> Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
>
> I can’t imagine either extreme will be deterred by tonight’s results. The fact is we voted to leave, and in the absence of a drastic change of mind, which could have been shown here, we have to leave.
Perhaps that argument would be more effective accompanied by an animated gif of a stamping foot.
Perhaps you’d have more cred if you put up a price when asked instead of waiting til after the result
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise. > > A sensible compromise like Dave's Deal, for example?
That wasn't a compromise at all. It was no change leading to continued integration.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @isam said: > > > @isam said: > > > > > > @isam said: > > > > > > > > > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum. > > > > > > > > > > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually. > > > > > > > > I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again. > > > > > > > > As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ? > > > > Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half > > And if I add it equally, still no majority. What about the SNP, for instance ? There's no clarity.
It is equally clear there is no majority for revoke or revote. Works both ways.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @KentRising said: > > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse." > > > > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it. > > Wrong yet again.
How can you deny that? His entire career has been about trying to take Britain out of the EU based on cultural arguments about the Anglosphere, joining our "true friends", etc.
> @Black_Rook said: > Reeta doing the Green highlights now. > > They won the vote in Bristol and Brighton & Hove, in each case well ahead of the LDs, with Brexit 3rd and Labour 4th. > > More generally, I think the Greens were a useful repository for those Left-leaning voters who are (1) insufficiently tribal to contemplate dumping Labour, and (2) who wouldn't touch the Lib Dems with a ten-foot bargepole (because they're not socialist enough, or because of the Coalition, or both.) > > This would appear to be a reasonably large constituency, although whether it can get them anything beyond the return of Caroline Lucas in a GE is another matter. If they're going to win anywhere else under FPTP, this result suggests they should concentrate what resources they have on Bristol.
Number of points here. Green voters tend not to be overly concerned with the party's economic position. I voted for them this time around and I'm certainly not lefty. I also know conservatives and even former Kippers who've voted for them. There are elements of climate change, protest votes, concern about building in green belts that feed into green voting. I'm a floating voter, having dallied with Lib Dems and SNP in past elections, and the Greens once before. That's two centrist parties and one quite left. I'm not the only one who isn't arsed about left vs centre.
Also, it's not just Bristol: Norwich looks fruitful too, and there were a spate of Lib Dem - Green deals in the locals that worked so well that both parties will be enthusiastic about repeating it, perhaps even at Westminster. Indeed, the Greens have stepped aside previously (perhaps Oxford West?) They might be strong enough now to extract a quid pro quo. Somewhere like Sheffield might come into the mix then. I can easily see Greens going up to three MPs on current form. More if an SNP deal would come about, but I doubt the SNP quite have the mindset to cooperate in such a way.
> @williamglenn said: > > @KentRising said: > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse." > > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
'But the sneering, metropolitan, rubbers-of-faces-in-diversity libs started it!'
> @FF43 said: > Key numbers are that UKIP + Cons lost 40 % points while Brexit Party gained 33% . The other 7% went to Remain parties. So it probably was a Remain majority in the vote.
The Conservative 2014 vote share would have included a lot of Remainers. At GE2015 Conservative voters were about 2/5ths for Remain.
For all the results for local authority areas in England, tot up LD+Green+CHUK on the one hand, and Brex+Ukip on the other.
If things carry on the way they are going, then pretty much all of the areas where Remain is ahead will be "Liberal" areas, and those where Leave is ahead will be "Tory" areas. And I'm not talking about present-day Lib Dems and Conservatives, I'm talking about the ideological successors of the current system.
This split will end up restructuring politics, long-term, along an entrenched cultural divide.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove > > You mean something like Brexit but with a customs union, single market alignment and guarantees oin environmental and workers' rights? Yes...I'd go for that, but it doesn't seem very popular...
EFTA is not in the Customs Union and it wont work if we try that. Come on Nick you are one of the experts. You know this stuff.,
> > I’m not the one claiming there is a majority for my side on the back of tonight’s results
No, I simply said the only clear majority was against no-deal, based on the outspoken clarity of one single party's position, and then its national share. You then brought in a referendum being rejected just as clearly, which I don't think it has been, because so much of the remain opinion is split and distributed to different camps . None of the other options, including going all the way to the other end of the spectrum of a softish Brexit, have been rejected as clearly, I think.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @KentRising said: > > > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse." > > > > > > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it. > > > > Wrong yet again. > > How can you deny that? His entire career has been about trying to take Britain out of the EU based on cultural arguments about the Anglosphere, joining our "true friends", etc.
It has been about so much more than that and the fact you don't see that shows just how one eyed your view is.
For all the results for local authority areas in England, tot up LD+Green+CHUK on the one hand, and Brex+Ukip on the other.
If things carry on the way they are going, then pretty much all of the areas where Remain is ahead will be "Liberal" areas, and those where Leave is ahead will be "Tory" areas. And I'm not talking about present-day Lib Dems and Conservatives, I'm talking about the ideological successors of the current system.
This split will end up restructuring politics, long-term, along an entrenched cultural divide.
Ulsterization, part 33 in an ongoing series...
We’re heading for a system with Democratic and Republican parties, just with different names
> @CarlottaVance said: > Dire night for both Labour and (especially) the Tories - but the 'way forward' seems a lot clearer for the latter (deliver a "Brexit" of some description, easier said than done) than the former (is it the party of Islington or Immingham?)
The way forward for Labour is also clear. Ditch Corbyn and switch to people's vote. They can even keep their "bringing the country together" mantra, if they think it's getting through (it isn't)
Comments
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party
> >
> > Did not vote party wins.
> >
> > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
> >
>
> Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
Can bots vote ?
> Looks like the polling was decent, except those that had Labour in the 20s.
Depends which pollster you look at. A couple of them had Labour miles ahead of the LDs. Survation and Kantar if I remember correctly.
> Who is going to rescue us from these lunatic leavers?
Not Labour
> > @RobD said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132791861695922183
> >
>
> > He's back, baby!
> bunga bunga!!!
>
> Imagine him and Widdecombe locked in a room together ......
One can only hope.
> Thrasher on Sky saying Brexit Party performance better than UKIP in 2014.
It's +4% according to the BBC.
> That's it apart from N Ireland, isn't it? Good night all, and congrats Brexiteers and LibDems.
We haven't had all the results from Scotland yet have we? I know Western Isles is tomorrow but there are others I haven't seen.
Greens massively overshot them. LDs overachieved.
Lab very disappointed.
Tories despair.
Chuk UKIP, checking the terms of the pet insurance for euthanasia.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Worth remembering
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
> >
> > Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
>
> Typical EU fanatic
>
>
Can't have us voting the wrong away again.
> twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1132794914977325057
Surprise Jezza didn't take the opportunity to moan about 13 million in poverty, rural bus service cuts and the fact Maureen from Margate had to wait 15 mins in the Post Office the other week.
> I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split.
A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
Yes. Indeed.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party
> > >
> > > Did not vote party wins.
> > >
> > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
> > >
> >
> > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
>
> Can bots vote ?
Because voting takes some effort, and young people are lazy.
Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party
> >
> > Did not vote party wins.
> >
> > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
> >
>
> Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
I know quite a few signatures from the petition that still voted Labour because loyalty to Corbyn was more important than sending a clear signal on Brexit.
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
Its not a revoke country either.
> Michael Thrasher on Sky News:
>
> "Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%".
>
> Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned.
It looks as though they're going to be just under 31%, and the Lib Dems just below 20%.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > Worth remembering
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
> > >
> > > Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
> >
> > Typical EU fanatic
> >
> >
>
> Can't have us voting the wrong away again.
If we do we would clearly have to vote again until we got it right.
When amazingly the need for further votes would end.
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Michael Thrasher on Sky News:
> >
> > "Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%".
> >
> > Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned.
>
> It looks as though they're going to be just under 31%, and the Lib Dems just below 20%.
Northern Ireland usually reduces each party's share of the vote by about 1%.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Its not a revoke country either.
Nope, it’s a total mess.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1132794914977325057
>
> Surprise Jezza didn't take the opportunity to moan about 13 million in poverty, rural bus service cuts and the fact Maureen from Margate had to wait 15 mins in the Post Office the other week.
In fairness, Post Office provision in Margate is not great.
https://twitter.com/RichardLochhead/status/1132794087004938240
https://twitter.com/KevinBarronMP/status/1132763945599741952
>
> When amazingly the need for further votes would end.
No, there would be opportunities for further votes, on things like joining the Euro.
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
The country is probably split three ways, with two-thirds of people against each of the options. An impossible position. I hope we can get through this.
> Greens win in Bristol and Brighton. They won't get the headlines, but they are the story Europe wide.
> Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
Tories failing to win a single LA shows the wholesale shipping of their vote to Farage I think
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > Revoke Petition > Brexit Party
> > > >
> > > > Did not vote party wins.
> > > >
> > > > Nation split however we look at it. No clarity tonight.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Curious... why would people motivated enough to sign that petition not vote for a remain party when given the opportunity?
> >
> > Can bots vote ?
>
> Because voting takes some effort, and young people are lazy.
I thought they were yearning to go and pick potatoes in Poland and wash cars in Cluj.
They won the vote in Bristol and Brighton & Hove, in each case well ahead of the LDs, with Brexit 3rd and Labour 4th.
More generally, I think the Greens were a useful repository for those Left-leaning voters who are (1) insufficiently tribal to contemplate dumping Labour, and (2) who wouldn't touch the Lib Dems with a ten-foot bargepole (because they're not socialist enough, or because of the Coalition, or both.)
This would appear to be a reasonably large constituency, although whether it can get them anything beyond the return of Caroline Lucas in a GE is another matter. If they're going to win anywhere else under FPTP, this result suggests they should concentrate what resources they have on Bristol.
> Greens win in Bristol and Brighton. They won't get the headlines, but they are the story Europe wide.
> Cons fail to win a single LA. That is astounding.
It's what a Conservative voter strike looks like.
> > @Chris said:
> > I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
>
> As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split.
>
> A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
He certainly looks like the best of a bad bunch to me.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > Worth remembering
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1132791365954412544
> > >
> > > Who says they couldn't? The franchise will be decided by parliament.
> >
> > Typical EU fanatic
> >
> >
>
> Can't have us voting the wrong away again.
We already give 1.5 billion Commonwealth nationals the potential right to vote in our elections and referedums - how many more do we need to give votes to!
EU nationals cannot vote in Irish referendums - not sure why we should?
And it would be odd if parliament decided to use a different franchise than is used to elect them.
> The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
Hopefully a few more momentum kids will have woken up tonight to see the LEXITer that their saint really is.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> Its not a revoke country either.
We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
> > @Floater said:
> >
> > When amazingly the need for further votes would end.
>
> No, there would be opportunities for further votes, on things like joining the Euro.
You really would not like the result of that vote.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> >
> > Its not a revoke country either.
>
> Nope, it’s a total mess.
I do t how u can say it's not no deal but might be for revoke.
https://twitter.com/CapriceFrenata/status/1132794528048586753?s=20
> > @another_richard said:
> > So we were told that the LibDems would get their highest vote since 1910.
> >
> > Instead they got their highest vote since 2010.
>
>
Well, it's the first time the Liberal (Democrat)s have outpolled the Tories since 1906 I think.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > Love how a massive win for the Breexit Party is currently being spun as the nation running into the loving bosom of the EU!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It’s a strong rejection of No Deal.
>
>
>
> It's a strong rejection of Revoke
>
> It's a strong rejection of a second referendum.
>
> It's a strong rejection of compromise.
>
>
>
> Nothing has won a majority. Not surprisingly.
>
> Indeed the polarised "no majority for anything" we've seen in the Commons has spread to the public.
Or the polarised "no majority for anything" we've seen in the Commons fairly reflects the public.
> > @isam said:
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> >
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
> Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
I'm not sure one can add Labour's share to the Remain total.
No clear winner, but the main media message will probably be that both Labour and the Conservatives will need to change to a clear policy very quickly. Further polarisation and no clear solution
> A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
You mean something like Brexit but with a customs union, single market alignment and guarantees oin environmental and workers' rights? Yes...I'd go for that, but it doesn't seem very popular...
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> The country is probably split three ways, with two-thirds of people against each of the options. An impossible position. I hope we can get through this.
Nothing is clear when half of those who voted in the referendum voted for the stay at home party , in another referendum remain vs no deal I think no deal would win unless we had a deal Better than TM deal
> > @isam said:
>
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
>
>
> Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
>
> I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU has been adamant it won't offer any new deal, where can we all go from here ?
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> > >
> > > You cant include Labour, be real.
> >
> > Neither Tories nor Labour can be included in any of this.
> >
> > The story of the night is. Brexit+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists.
> >
> >
>
> Tories are pro-Brexit so why not include them.
>
> Brexit+Tory+UKIP vs LD+Green+Nationalists with Labour irrelevant.
*********************************************************************************************************
If you want to try to assess where public opinion is on these votes, you have to make assumptions about the Remain/Leaver split for both Tory and Labour voters. You can't simply ignore them!
My guess is the Tory split is 2/1 Leave to Remain (a lot of Tory Leavers have moved to the Brexit Party and are counted there)
For Labour my guess is 1/2 Leave to Remain. Some Lab Leavers will have gone to Brexit and some Remainers to LD.
Adding everything up gives 54% Remain, 46% Leave.
You have to change my assumptions about Tory and Labour Leave/Remain splits to an unrealistic extent to get a Leave majority out of this! Not to say some people won't try.
> > @Chris said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Michael Thrasher on Sky News:
> > >
> > > "Brexit Party may not go beyond 30%".
> > >
> > > Well I hope so, as far as my bets are concerned.
> >
> > It looks as though they're going to be just under 31%, and the Lib Dems just below 20%.
>
> Northern Ireland usually reduces each party's share of the vote by about 1%.
The reduction will be in proportion to the vote share. Someone worked it out as about 0.8% for Brexit. It'll be more like 0.5% for the Lib Dems.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> >
> > Its not a revoke country either.
>
> We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds.
If I wanted to look on the bright side I would say that is not true. We are a country split approximately into 6ths. 1/6th voted No Deal-ish. 1/6th voted Remain/Revoke and 4/6ths either did not vote or voted in such a way we cannot tell what they want.
That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
> > @Chris said:
> > I think it's fairly clear - when people are getting excited about whether or not TBP will stay above 30%, and having to pretend that the Nationalists aren't in favour of remaining so that the sums come out right - that this hasn't been the great Brexit victory that some were expecting.
>
> As I keep saying you can draw no conclusions at all from this result as far as for or against Brexit is concerned. I would not even go so far as to claim the 31% who voted for TBP all want a No Deal. Basically this election tells us nothing other than the country is split.
>
> A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
I think you could also draw the conclusion from this vote that any such effort is likely now doomed to failure.
>
> That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
A sensible compromise like Dave's Deal, for example?
> > @isam said:
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> >
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
>
> Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
Gove to win the PM spot and propose EFTA membership.
Okay I know it is my own personal unicorn but right now it is all I have.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @isam said:
>
> >
>
> > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
>
> >
>
> > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
>
>
>
> I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
>
>
>
> As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ?
>
> Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half
And if I add it equally, still no majority. What about the SNP, for instance ? There's no clarity.
> Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse."
For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
1 in 3 want to stay in the EU, even though we voted to Leave.
1in 3 think the major issues can be addressed sensibly whether we are inside or out of,the EU.
Never thought I would have a warm fellow feeling towards my Tory voting Comrades.
> > @isam said:
>
> > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
>
> >
>
> > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
>
>
>
>
>
> Yep, it’s a total mess. It looks to me like a very soft Brexit is what the country would buy, but that won’t get through Parliament.
>
> I can’t imagine either extreme will be deterred by tonight’s results. The fact is we voted to leave, and in the absence of a drastic change of mind, which could have been shown here, we have to leave.
Perhaps that argument would be more effective accompanied by an animated gif of a stamping foot.
Con lead: nowhere?
Lab lead: Redbridge, Harrow, Barking, Enfield, Brent, Ealing, Newham, Tower Hamlets, Waltham Forest, Greenwich, Nottingham, Leicester, Manchester, Liverpool, Oldham, Birmingham....where else?
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> > >
> > > Its not a revoke country either.
> >
> > We've gone from a country split in half to a country split in thirds.
>
> If I wanted to look on the bright side I would say that is not true. We are a country split approximately into 6ths. 1/6th voted No Deal-ish. 1/6th voted Remain/Revoke and 4/6ths either did not vote or voted in such a way we cannot tell what they want.
>
> That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
That is certainly plausible given what happened between 2014EP and 2015GE, but in general opinion polling seems to support the thirds hypothesis.
That said, I am ever hopeful that minds can be changed.
> > @KentRising said:
> > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse."
>
> For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
Wrong yet again.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > That gives a lot of room for a sensible majority for some sort of compromise.
>
> A sensible compromise like Dave's Deal, for example?
That wasn't a compromise at all. It was no change leading to continued integration.
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > > @isam said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > The UK is not a No Deal country. That is clear. Everything else is mud.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > Well it’s just as obviously not a revoke or 2nd ref country
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Not so. Only one party was promising no-deal ; three ( and a half ) parties in Engand, if you count Labour's ambivalence, were offering a possible referendum.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think UKIP were promising no deal too actually.
> >
> >
> >
> > I hate to get back into these figures again, but UKIP + BRX is less than CUK + LD's + GRN + half of Labour. So, all clear as mud again.
> >
> >
> >
> > As Southam mentioned, I think only the rejection of no-deal is clear. And since the Commons has been united in rejecting the previous deal, and the EU won't offer any new deal, where can it all go from here ?
> >
> > Do me a favour, I’m not an idiot. You can’t just allocate half of a party that is split on the issue to your side and forget about the other half
>
> And if I add it equally, still no majority. What about the SNP, for instance ? There's no clarity.
It is equally clear there is no majority for revoke or revote. Works both ways.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @KentRising said:
> > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse."
> >
> > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
>
> Wrong yet again.
How can you deny that? His entire career has been about trying to take Britain out of the EU based on cultural arguments about the Anglosphere, joining our "true friends", etc.
> Reeta doing the Green highlights now.
>
> They won the vote in Bristol and Brighton & Hove, in each case well ahead of the LDs, with Brexit 3rd and Labour 4th.
>
> More generally, I think the Greens were a useful repository for those Left-leaning voters who are (1) insufficiently tribal to contemplate dumping Labour, and (2) who wouldn't touch the Lib Dems with a ten-foot bargepole (because they're not socialist enough, or because of the Coalition, or both.)
>
> This would appear to be a reasonably large constituency, although whether it can get them anything beyond the return of Caroline Lucas in a GE is another matter. If they're going to win anywhere else under FPTP, this result suggests they should concentrate what resources they have on Bristol.
Number of points here. Green voters tend not to be overly concerned with the party's economic position. I voted for them this time around and I'm certainly not lefty. I also know conservatives and even former Kippers who've voted for them. There are elements of climate change, protest votes, concern about building in green belts that feed into green voting.
I'm a floating voter, having dallied with Lib Dems and SNP in past elections, and the Greens once before. That's two centrist parties and one quite left. I'm not the only one who isn't arsed about left vs centre.
Also, it's not just Bristol: Norwich looks fruitful too, and there were a spate of Lib Dem - Green deals in the locals that worked so well that both parties will be enthusiastic about repeating it, perhaps even at Westminster. Indeed, the Greens have stepped aside previously (perhaps Oxford West?) They might be strong enough now to extract a quid pro quo. Somewhere like Sheffield might come into the mix then. I can easily see Greens going up to three MPs on current form. More if an SNP deal would come about, but I doubt the SNP quite have the mindset to cooperate in such a way.
> > @KentRising said:
> > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse."
>
> For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
'But the sneering, metropolitan, rubbers-of-faces-in-diversity libs started it!'
> Key numbers are that UKIP + Cons lost 40 % points while Brexit Party gained 33% . The other 7% went to Remain parties. So it probably was a Remain majority in the vote.
The Conservative 2014 vote share would have included a lot of Remainers. At GE2015 Conservative voters were about 2/5ths for Remain.
If things carry on the way they are going, then pretty much all of the areas where Remain is ahead will be "Liberal" areas, and those where Leave is ahead will be "Tory" areas. And I'm not talking about present-day Lib Dems and Conservatives, I'm talking about the ideological successors of the current system.
This split will end up restructuring politics, long-term, along an entrenched cultural divide.
Ulsterization, part 33 in an ongoing series...
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > A loser's revote won't change this however much Remainers might hope it will. What it actually needs is someone who can come up with a sensible compromise and try to peel off the moderates from each side to form a working majority for a Brexit that works. I have no idea who that might be at the moment although as I have said before the only one who looks like they might be able to get somewhere close to it on the Tory side is Gove
>
> You mean something like Brexit but with a customs union, single market alignment and guarantees oin environmental and workers' rights? Yes...I'd go for that, but it doesn't seem very popular...
EFTA is not in the Customs Union and it wont work if we try that. Come on Nick you are one of the experts. You know this stuff.,
> I’m not the one claiming there is a majority for my side on the back of tonight’s results
No, I simply said the only clear majority was against no-deal, based on the outspoken clarity of one single party's position, and then its national share. You then brought in a referendum being rejected just as clearly, which I don't think it has been, because so much of the remain opinion is split and distributed to different camps . None of the other options, including going all the way to the other end of the spectrum of a softish Brexit, have been rejected as clearly, I think.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @KentRising said:
> > > > Hannan: "This isn't as bad as 1832. It's worse."
> > >
> > > For Hannan to call for the culture war over Brexit to end is a bit rich given than he's one of the prime instigators of it.
> >
> > Wrong yet again.
>
> How can you deny that? His entire career has been about trying to take Britain out of the EU based on cultural arguments about the Anglosphere, joining our "true friends", etc.
It has been about so much more than that and the fact you don't see that shows just how one eyed your view is.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1132799701491830784
> Dire night for both Labour and (especially) the Tories - but the 'way forward' seems a lot clearer for the latter (deliver a "Brexit" of some description, easier said than done) than the former (is it the party of Islington or Immingham?)
The way forward for Labour is also clear. Ditch Corbyn and switch to people's vote. They can even keep their "bringing the country together" mantra, if they think it's getting through (it isn't)