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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5%

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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,602
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.

    Yes you have. At least, I'm a Leaver who would have been pretty happy with the direction that (it turns out) Ed Balls would have taken the country in i.e. pretty well the manifesto Miliband put together except for committing to an EU referendum, scrapping HS2 in favour of spending on far more pressing investment priorities and being bolder on commitments to public sector investment generally. A moderate agenda of the left, hardly one for "disaffected outsiders" or "reactionaries".
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    > @Roger said:
    > Is it true Mrs May refuses to resign because she wants to to stay on until Trump's visit where she can be sure to have her bottom squeezed?
    >
    > In other news Monaco tacky as ever...

    A near perfect post in how to make yourself look foolish when talking about others...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?

    https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.



    A posting that says a great deal about you (and none of it good) and nothing about leave voters.

    Since you want to dismember the UK and radically re-engineer what is left of English politics, there are other posters who could have made that point more plausibly than you.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,646
    > @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
    > > @kjh said:
    > > I asked at our polling station in Surrey and was told polling was busy (although only myself and my daughter there at the time).
    > >
    > > Re the overseas postal voters not getting their ballot papers in time, I find the excuse of 'we complied with the rules' really, really aggravating. I get really bugged by people who feel meeting the rules is the requirement and not the ends that the rules are there for. It is a real 'jobs worth' attitude that is all to common.
    >
    > Did they ever bother to read the rules which the council sends out when you ask for a postal vote ? From memory it says the PV can either be sent to the qualifying address - usual or else to another address within or outside the UK. When I did mine albeit ten years ago or so it explicitly said words to the effect, make sure the PV can be returned within the relevant period and the ONUS is on the applicant, not the electoral officer. Bloody common sense.
    >
    > Now, I know that some of the complaints are that Electoral Services used a carrier who wasn't up to the job. That would only be an issue if they were known to be incompetent

    I'm very confused by that reply. My understanding is it is the last paragraph of your reply that is relevant. People just didn't get their postal votes in time to send them back, or at all, because they were sent out too late to get there using the cheap delivery service the councils had picked. I can't see how any of the voters are to blame and to say 'we complied with the rules' is just a rubbish response as the objective is to enable people who have applied properly to vote not to comply with the rules.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    edited May 2019

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > How long before the first conspiracy theory about what is happening to the ballot boxes between Thursday and Sunday?



    The conspiracy theories will start after 10 on Sunday night when we start getting some ideas about how the voting went. If party x has not done as well as expected then you're going to hear a lot of it

    Farage has form for inventing conspiracies, remember when he claimed there was postal vote fraud in the Oldham by election then never put in a police complaint, which his fellow Kippers said made him look like a bad loser.

    And let us not even mention the time he said his car had been tampered with.
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    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    You would think it would be administratively simpler to count the votes and just not publish the results. You could divide up the boxes to make it hard for anyone but a few to know the answer. Not thinking of silly conspiracy theories - just thinking of a fire in the wrong leisure centre and the cost of, presumably, someone keeping a watch.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > Anecdotes about turnout are almost always wrong, but interesting nonetheless when we don't have anything else to talk about.
    > >
    > > At ours the tellers said they'd been surprised how busy it had been - steady stream through the day. Our eventual tally including the in-laws reported votes:
    > >
    > > +4 Yellow Peril
    > > -2 Tory
    > > -2 Labour
    >
    > Great news , thanks for voting for the Lib Dems . As a Labour Remainer good to see others determined to send out a message to the Corbyn cabal. May I ask where are you located ?
    >

    The socialist peoples republic of Bercow.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    ah009 said:

    I see things similarly to you, but the way I would put it is that Brexit is the opening up of two previously relatively unimportant dimensions. The existing dimensions (Left/Right, Liberal/Authoritarian) have been augmented with International/National, Metropolitan/Traditional.

    Those dimensions were always there, but they have become wedged open.

    There is a lot of cognitive dissonance at the moment that people find hard to handle because they find themselves on the same side of new fissures as people they previously opposed. So I find myself listening with admiration to people like Anna Soubry, only to shake myself when I realise what's happening. I've not become a conservative, and she's certainly not stopped being one, but we're now on the same side of _something_, and that something is really important to both of us.

    I think what's happening is the different political axes are rotating in opposite directions. In the 70s, Labour were the more socially conservative, nationalistic party but they were defeated by economically liberal, metropolitan forces. Over time, the people on the 'left' started to become more metropolitan and liberal, creating an uneasy coalition with their traditional base. Meanwhile people on the 'right' started to think, "Hang on a minute! What about identity and community?" In some ways the emergence of the Leave/Remain split is forcibly pushing politics back to the way it was aligned before Thatcher, with the 'left' and the 'right' changing places.

    Social changes also complicate the picture. If you think of the character of Abigail from Abigail's Party, she would probably have been an aspirational Thatcher voter in the 80s, a contented Blair voter in the 90s, and a discontented Brexit voter in the 2010s.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > Anecdotes about turnout are almost always wrong, but interesting nonetheless when we don't have anything else to talk about.
    > > >
    > > > At ours the tellers said they'd been surprised how busy it had been - steady stream through the day. Our eventual tally including the in-laws reported votes:
    > > >
    > > > +4 Yellow Peril
    > > > -2 Tory
    > > > -2 Labour
    > >
    > > Great news , thanks for voting for the Lib Dems . As a Labour Remainer good to see others determined to send out a message to the Corbyn cabal. May I ask where are you located ?
    > >
    >
    > The socialist peoples republic of Bercow.

    Thanks . Very funny ! 😁
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,489
    NEW THREAD
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.

    @DavidL @rcs1000 @Charles to name but 3
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    trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Voted in Birmingham teller said turnout “Not as bad as we thought it was going to be”.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    > @Charles said:
    > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.
    >
    > @DavidL @rcs1000 @Charles to name but 3

    Disaffected outsiders. ;)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    > @williamglenn said:
    > I see things similarly to you, but the way I would put it is that Brexit is the opening up of two previously relatively unimportant dimensions. The existing dimensions (Left/Right, Liberal/Authoritarian) have been augmented with International/National, Metropolitan/Traditional.
    >
    > Those dimensions were always there, but they have become wedged open.
    >
    > There is a lot of cognitive dissonance at the moment that people find hard to handle because they find themselves on the same side of new fissures as people they previously opposed. So I find myself listening with admiration to people like Anna Soubry, only to shake myself when I realise what's happening. I've not become a conservative, and she's certainly not stopped being one, but we're now on the same side of _something_, and that something is really important to both of us.
    >
    > I think what's happening is the different political axes are rotating in opposite directions. In the 70s, Labour were the more socially conservative, nationalistic party but they were defeated by economically liberal, metropolitan forces. Over time, the people on the 'left' started to become more metropolitan and liberal, creating an uneasy coalition with their traditional base. Meanwhile people on the 'right' started to think, "Hang on a minute! What about identity and community?" In some ways the emergence of the Leave/Remain split is forcibly pushing politics back to the way it was aligned before Thatcher, with the 'left' and the 'right' changing places.
    >
    > Social changes also complicate the picture. If you think of the character of Abigail from Abigail's Party, she would probably have been an aspirational Thatcher voter in the 80s, a contented Blair voter in the 90s, and a discontented Brexit voter in the 2010s.

    You never meet Abigail in Abigail's Party, so I'm not sure how you can draw those conclusions.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    rcs1000 said:

    You never meet Abigail in Abigail's Party, so I'm not sure how you can draw those conclusions.

    Good point. I mean Beverly... :blush:
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2019
    > @Morris_Dancer said:
    > Mr. Roger, depends how and when the rain falls. He is good in the wet but if the track's drying at the wrong moment it could rob him of a huge amount of time and the grid could be almost a lottery.
    >
    > Apart from my Leclerc bet, I'm not against a Hamilton win (I have a bet on him exceeding Schumacher's record, which is pretty likely to happen sometime next year).

    I wonder if it's widely known how English the race is. The crews and mechanics infact everyone connected seem to be English. It could well rain and the commentator seemed to think he was favourite. I didn't see the practice. To get a glimpse costs about 80 euros and they have large TVs in all the cafes.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,293
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161

    No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,293
    > @paulyork64 said:
    > Not voted yet. I will go for who I think most fits the "Brexit. Yes please, but not at any cost" brief.
    >
    > And the chippy's next door so that's tea sorted.


    Labour?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,293
    > @nico67 said:
    > Are there any party activists in here who could tell us how much of a GOTV operation there is for their respective party?
    >
    >


    I got an email for the LibDems in the South East listing a small number of cities where there’ll be evening knocking up. But a drop in the ocean compared to a local election.
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    DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Are there any party activists in here who could tell us how much of a GOTV operation there is for their respective party?
    > >
    > >
    >
    >
    > I got an email for the LibDems in the South East listing a small number of cities where there’ll be evening knocking up. But a drop in the ocean compared to a local election.

    We Tories are doing nothing.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Charles said:
    > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.
    >
    > @DavidL @rcs1000 @Charles to name but 3

    Column 2 I’m afraid.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Are there any party activists in here who could tell us how much of a GOTV operation there is for their respective party?
    > >
    > >
    >
    >
    > I got an email for the LibDems in the South East listing a small number of cities where there’ll be evening knocking up. But a drop in the ocean compared to a local election.

    Thanks Ian .

    I suppose it makes sense to target cities and build up the votes there where you can get a lot more votes per mile !

    I really hope the Lib Dems do well.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Lib Dems very chipper here in West Hampstead.
    >
    > Finally saw a Labour canvasser. Cheerfully directed him to my recycling bin and told him what Corbyn could do.
    >
    > Wonderfully sunny.
    >
    > A bit dull that we have to wait until Sunday for the results. Still, if we get a PM resigning that should fill the hours.......

    ‘Liberal Democrats are chipper in Hampstead’ - is the Pope Catholic? Any news from Hainault or Hornchurch or Hillingdon or Hounslow?

    Let’s think outside the bubble?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,402
    There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.

    The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,841

    There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.

    The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.

    I hate to ask, but on *what* exactly? "On her" is imprecise.

    Yes, I know I'm annoying... :(
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,964
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    >
    > > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.
    >
    >
    >
    > A posting that says a great deal about you (and none of it good) and nothing about leave voters.
    >
    > Since you want to dismember the UK and radically re-engineer what is left of English politics, there are other posters who could have made that point more plausibly than you.

    Not at all. I am neither a disaffected outsider nor a reactionary. In case you missed it devolution and self determination are mainstream centrist ideas, not radical ones. You are a dinosaur.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,551

    > @Charles said:

    > I haven't come across any of these hypothetical centrist Leavers mooted upthread. By and large they're either disaffected outsiders who want to tear down the system or reactionaries who viscerally dislike the messy compromises of modern life.

    >

    > @DavidL @rcs1000 @Charles to name but 3



    Column 2 I’m afraid.

    Sorry that's the problem not the solution. Because there are roughly equal numbers - in the many millions - on each side of this issue we know without further examination that this issue splits the centre ground. There are not enough extremists to make up those sorts of numbers. Comments about who you meet and who you know make no difference. I remember talking to a group of very bright London lawyers who said they had never met a Brexiteer. It tells me they need to get out more and different. And the other way round is also true.

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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,356
    Anecdotal of course, but as a relatively younga ex-Labourite who's stridently anti-Corbyn, primarily over anti-Semitism and other related issues, some of the more difficult conversations I've had are with friends and acquaintances who aren't Corbynistas but don't share my urgency and horror and so still support the party. Feels like not any more, at least in this election. The 'us or Robinson or Farage' stuff has gone down like a cup of cold sick, not least because it highlights Labour's own biggest problems and lack of answers to them. Have a feeling they could do quite badly, not least as each has their own option in the Lib Dems, CHUK or the Greens and even among those who'd unequivocally vote Lab in a GE, There's a desire to kick the party up the arse.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161
    >
    > No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election

    At least he'll know for next time.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @Chris said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161
    > >
    > > No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election
    >
    > At least he'll know for next time.

    This does not apply to Irish, Maltese and Cypriot nationals who can also vote in general elections.

    People should perhaps check the rules before polling day - if they aren’t citizens of the country they live in?
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > There’s a youngish woman on my commuter train with a (shock horror) political sticker on her saying “yes to Europe” with yellow stars and blue background, and a couple of leaflets with her Evening Standard.
    >
    > The rest of the commuters in the carriage are totally ignoring her though, as regular commuters are often wont to do. Make of that what you will.


    Yes to the 51 Countries In Europe - no to the EU which only covers 27 of them?

    Do they get the difference between the continent and the political entity?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @Chris said:
    > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?
    > > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161
    > > >
    > > > No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election
    > >
    > > At least he'll know for next time.
    >
    > This does not apply to Irish, Maltese and Cypriot nationals who can also vote in general elections.
    >
    > People should perhaps check the rules before polling day - if they aren’t citizens of the country they live in?

    Are those instructions on the back of the card? That would seem the obvious place.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @brendan16 said:
    > > > @Chris said:
    > > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/MarcellaFinazzi/status/1131460630559580161
    > > > >
    > > > > No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election
    > > >
    > > > At least he'll know for next time.
    > >
    > > This does not apply to Irish, Maltese and Cypriot nationals who can also vote in general elections.
    > >
    > > People should perhaps check the rules before polling day - if they aren’t citizens of the country they live in?
    >
    > Are those instructions on the back of the card? That would seem the obvious place.

    They are on local council websites. There isn’t room on the back of a polling card that. Over all aspects and of electoral law.

    This process applies in many if not most member states - in Ireland you have to complete an EP1 form available from your local council and here it’s a UC1 form. A copy is sent to your country of nationality to ensure you didn’t vote twice.


    If people have done this, returned their UC1 and been denied a vote that is wrong - but if they haven’t and failed to follow the rules then the responsibility is on them.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Off to verification prep now - will miss all the excitement.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,329
    brendan16 said:

    > @DecrepitJohnL said:

    > > @brendan16 said:

    > > > @Chris said:

    > > > > @IanB2 said:

    > > > > > @AndyJS said:

    > > > > > Surely if someone receives a polling card it means they ought to be able to vote?

    > > > > >

    > > > > >



    > > > >

    > > > > No, non UK EU citizens can only vote if they complete and return a UC1 form prior to the election

    > > >

    > > > At least he'll know for next time.

    > >

    > > This does not apply to Irish, Maltese and Cypriot nationals who can also vote in general elections.

    > >

    > > People should perhaps check the rules before polling day - if they aren’t citizens of the country they live in?

    >

    > Are those instructions on the back of the card? That would seem the obvious place.



    They are on local council websites. There isn’t room on the back of a polling card that. Over all aspects and of electoral law.



    This process applies in many if not most member states - in Ireland you have to complete an EP1 form available from your local council and here it’s a UC1 form. A copy is sent to your country of nationality to ensure you didn’t vote twice.





    If people have done this, returned their UC1 and been denied a vote that is wrong - but if they haven’t and failed to follow the rules then the responsibility is on them.
    How can you receive a polling card if you can't vote?
This discussion has been closed.