Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5%
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll puts BRX on 35% with the LDs in second place 5% ahead of LAB
New @IpsosMORI Euros poll completed last night sees LAB trailing LDsBREX: 35%LD: 20%LAB: 15%GRN: 10%CON: 9%CHUK: 3%UKIP: 3%
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Good, I have just voted Lib Dem as a vote for a 2nd referendum (am I allowed to say how I voted on here?) so if it elevates them above Lab that's a bonus.
The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48347081
Will the LDs beat Labour?
Will the Greens beat the Tories?
Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
And just for fun..
Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
Hmm...
Re. the 3-1 on a 2nd Referendum, it's with Bet365 and as far as I can see it's not time-capped. Surely that's value isn't it?
And as I mentioned, you can still get 8-1 on BP landing between 25%-29.99%. Please note that doesn't mean I think they 'will' land in that zone, just that I think it should be nearer 3 or 4-1 not 8-1.
https://twitter.com/bbcessex/status/1131524036914307072?s=21
> So the real battles seem to be:
> Will the LDs beat Labour?
> Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
> Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
> I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
>
> Hmm...
The message a Tory vote sends has already been delivered. It's just a wasted vote now.
> I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
>
> Hmm...
It seems all the pb Tories, are voting for the Tories after all.
> A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong!
>
> They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two) > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > > Poor little Tinkerbell
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Just because it is not sufficient does not mean it is not necessary.
>
> >
>
> > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these types believe all would have been well if only certain people believed enough. Thats just plain wrong, and is transparently an excuse to make a complicated issue simple in it being one non believers fault.
>
> >
>
> > The vast majority of the Tory party agreed with may in the end and voted for her deal. If the others had done so we would be out now. She clearly believed in Brexit because she delivered it to them. A crap Brexit to many but even boris and JRM agreedit was Brexit.
>
>
>
> If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?
>
> She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?
I have made no such demand at all. And as a soft leaver I would be delighted to have someone of a similar ilk running things.
But May clearly never understood Brexit and seemed to share Mr Meek's view that the only thing that mattered to those who voted Brexit was immigration - perhaps because she had spent so long thrashing about trying to be mean to immigrants whilst she was Home Secretary. Having someone in charge who actually understood why people voted for Brexit and was willing to try and deal with those issues rather than just being mean to foreigners would have gone a long way to making things easier.
> So the real battles seem to be:
>
> Will the LDs beat Labour?
> Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
>
> And just for fun..
>
> Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
>
Also, which polling company will win the pin the tail on the donkey award for closest poll to the result? (Is this more or less meaningless than the fierce battle between UKIP, CUK & SNP for 6th place?)
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > So the real battles seem to be:
> > Will the LDs beat Labour?
> > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
>
> > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
>
> Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
> But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
Oh - gotcha. Sorry.
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > I'm suddenly feeling a blue pullback... want to go yellow/orange to counter Farage but on reflection voting blue might actually send a similar message if not the 'bollocks' bit..
> >
> > Hmm...
>
> It seems all the pb Tories, are voting for the Tories after all.
OK, I'm in the SE group so that's Dan Hannan which means I'm voting Lib Dem after all.
And I didn't mean you literally demanded such. But it was implied even if not intended, suggesting one can only believe in it if voting for it initially. As Farage and co show they dont trust even those if they switched late .
> PB votes alone will see the Tories into double figures. Shame for cuk though, I hope they get more than UKIP.
PB votes cast will be more Tory and LD than the national average I expect but less Brexit Party and about average for Labour, the Greens and SNP
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > A quick post to say how pleased I am many posters today have voted Conservative as I did last week by post. This is one lection when I hope the polls get it very very wrong!
>
> >
>
> > They dont deserve it, but coin toss vs CUK went their way (ld lost to cuk to get to final two) > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1131454761516056576
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
> > > > These 'belief is all you need' types scare me.
>
> >
>
>
> > > Belief is not all you need. But nothing works without belief. Even AA didn't work until they added it.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The way it has the focus of criticism make it clear these
> > If she believed in it why didn't she vote for it?
>
> >
>
> > She believed in it afterwards as years of effort showed. You are demanding only those who voted the right way initially be able to lead? What if that person were a soft leaver?
>
>
>
> I have made no such demand at all. And as a soft leaver I would be delighted to have someone of a similar ilk running things.
>
>
>
> But May clearly never understood Brexit and seemed to share Mr Meek's view that the only thing that mattered to those who voted Brexit was immigration - perhaps because she had spent so long thrashing about trying to be mean to immigrants whilst she was Home Secretary. Having someone in charge who actually understood why people voted for Brexit and was willing to try and deal with those issues rather than just being mean to foreigners would have gone a long way to making things easier.
>
> Perhaps. But that is not the nuanced view most comments decrying a lack of belief seem to care about. Indeed because people did vote Brexit for different reasons the wrong kind of leaver would face the same criticism from the no deal hardliners.
>
> And I didn't mean you literally demanded such. But it was implied even if not intended, suggesting one can only believe in it if voting for it initially. As Farage and co show they dont trust even those if they switched late .
That's alright. I don't trust Farage
> Gently asked but is there any chance people could trim back quotes? The threads seem to fill up with endlessly long repetitions? Just asking that's all
The problem is made much worse by mixing quote styles.
> Interesting poll. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was correct.
I wouldn't be surprised if any of them were correct. There's huge uncertainty
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131521879716573184?s=20
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131522332911181826?s=20
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > So the real battles seem to be:
> > > Will the LDs beat Labour?
> > > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> > > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
> >
> > > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
> >
> > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
>
> No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
>
> But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up
> https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1131530609690587137
Not the Boris nominations pile then?
> If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
>
> The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > So the real battles seem to be:
> > > > Will the LDs beat Labour?
> > > > Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> > > > Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
> > >
> > > > Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
> > >
> > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
> >
> > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
> >
> > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
>
> It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up
Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
> >
> > The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
>
> Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928
OK, fair enough if you include women, for men it was 1918
> 1.
>
> Good, I have just voted Lib Dem as a vote for a 2nd referendum (am I allowed to say how I voted on here?) so if it elevates them above Lab that's a bonus.
Interesting question. Guardian says they don't want people commenting with who they voted for on their live blog because they're not allowed to publish that information. Does that apply to pb too?
> > @kamski said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > If Mori is true would be the joint worst voteshare for Labour in a national election since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1918 and the worst voteshare for the Tory Party in its history.
> > >
> > > The Brexit Party would also win with the biggest voteshare for a third party since 1918 too
> >
> > Universal suffrage introduced in the UK in 1928
>
> OK, fair enough if you include women, for men it was 1918
Lol, C21st Tory.
> Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
>
> BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think
Yes, sometimes by large margins. Some of the polling companies will have pinned the donkey's tail to the ass's head - but which ones?
I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE
For Nige
> I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE
4 parties in the 20s works well for Labour - perhaps that's their strategy ?
BliarBlair got a majority in 2005 on 35%...EDIT: Oops
Lab 237, Con 195, Brexit 80, Lib Dem 62
> So the real battles seem to be:
>
> Will the LDs beat Labour?
> Will the Greens beat the Tories?
> Will UKIP beat CHUK (Meaningless I know but fun never the less)?
>
> And just for fun..
>
> Will BP+UKIP (38% in this poll) beat LD+Green+CHUK+SNP+PC (33% excluding SNP and PC in this poll)?
>
>
For me
Yes
No
Who cares?
Almost certainly.
> https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816
Gotta love these Union Dividends.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
The 1990s just called and want Mel Stride's website back.
http://melstridemp.com/
> Electoral calculus @ 24% each
>
> Lab 237, Con 195, Brexit 80, Lib Dem 62
>
>
Crumbs. That's even more deadlocked than right now.
> > > > Yes some fun spots there. Since BP, LD, UKIP, GREEN and CHUK are all national parties that's rather arbitrary (naughty) to exclude SNP and PC, however? They are staunchly Remain parties.
>
> > >
>
> > > No I have not excluded them at all. That is why I included them in the Remain list.
>
> > >
>
> > > But I don't have the figures for their current polling hence the reason I can't include them in the running total so gave Remain 33% plus whatever they get.
>
> >
>
> > It'll be about 5% nationally, maybe slightly more if the SNP clean up
>
>
>
> Ta. So just about evenly split then. At least on the basis of this poll.
>
> BXP + UKIP has beaten LD+GREEN+CUK+SNP+PC in almost all of the last 10 polls I think
>
> If it is tight between the two extremes @williamglenn is probably right to say the next GE could be between BXP and LD
>
> I think it would be great if we had 4 parties in the 20s in terms of % at a GE
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131531918019825664
Mel Stride for next PM.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
I probably pay more attention to politics than is healthy, let alone normal and I cannot recall a single interview, comment, article or, well, anything from him. It would be a slight overstatement to say that I have never heard of him but only slight.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
>
> The 1990s just called and want Mel Stride's website back.
> http://melstridemp.com/
>
not enough marquees
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
Remainer take over of the government continues then...
Just voted Brexit Party.
Turnout seems "brisk" for an EU election.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816
>
> Gotta love these Union Dividends.
IF you ever leave - well Scotland, you have already left if I recall?
Can't wait to see how your new currency gets on.
Oh wait, you will be in the Euro won't you.
I'm sure they'll say they'll renegotiate with the EU but will they stick to 31 October as Exit Date come what may?
We don't yet know leadership election timetable but it's likely that they won't become PM till late July at the earliest and possibly later. Even if it's late July as far as Parliament is concerned that only leaves a very short sitting in early Sept + the month of Oct.
So will they cast iron promise to renegotiate and put all legislation through Parliament by 31 Oct or will they let Exit Date slip?
This looks like a very big decision that could swing the election - because if anyone says they may let date slip then worry will be it'll be back to a repeat of the last few months. But if they cast iron promise 31 Oct then they are going to have very little time.
Finally if they go for 31 Oct and get blocked in Parliament in late Oct then we are looking at a late Nov / early Dec GE which would be completely unprecedented in modern times.
> https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131533040906321920?s=20
Narendra Modi is looking at one of his officials and is saying " are we meant to take this clown seriously?"
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131534212778143744
>
> I probably pay more attention to politics than is healthy, let alone normal and I cannot recall a single interview, comment, article or, well, anything from him. It would be a slight overstatement to say that I have never heard of him but only slight.
Probably why May appointed him he was also a Remainer
> twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
Stonking bet.
https://order-order.com/2019/05/23/mini-reshuffle-mel-stride-now-commons-leader/
> > @HYUFD said:
> > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
>
> It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
>
> Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
I still think Sugar could run for Mayor of London next year, he hates Sadiq Khan
> I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
Do you mean the bloke wearing a brexit party rosette or is this yet another one?
> https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1131415869605777409?s=20
Hilarious how some idiots think voting for a party that is fascist in all but name is a vote for democracy.
> I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
Daily Mail not accepting comments on the article...
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
> >
> > It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
> >
> > Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
>
> I still think Sugar could run for Mayor of London next year, he hates Sadiq Khan
Would certainly add a bit of spice to at the moment what will be an easy re-election for Khan.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1131533040906321920?s=20
>
> Narendra Modi is looking at one of his officials and is saying " are we meant to take this clown seriously?"
They seemed to enjoy themselves here
https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/986388552710844417?s=20
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/url-european-elections-fake-news-facebook-vote-brexit-a8925896.html
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1131415869605777409?s=20
>
> Hilarious how some idiots think voting for a party that is fascist in all but name is a vote for democracy.
Brexit party is a fascist party?
> I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1131513167975256064
> > @HYUFD said:
> > twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131483749726793728?s=20
>
> It always seems a bit off when unelected peers give advice on how to vote.
>
> Say what you like about Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May but at least they got themselves elected.
I'm not sure that's a line I'd like to push too hard. Conservative selection processes for a long time worked on the basis that if you went to a good school, read (preferably PPE) at Oxbridge and then arrived for the meeting in a helicopter you were a shoo-in. That's a slight exaggeration but not entirely. I grew up in a household which was close to the action and this was pretty much the sum of it.
There are, likewise, a significant number of solid and safe Labour seats. Get the mechanics of support right and you, almost, had a job for life.
The point here is that a certain % of MPs, at least up until Brexit, didn't have to do an awful lot in life before they landed themselves a fairly plum job.
Contrast that with a guy who worked his way up from nothing, flogging bits and pieces out the back of a van, into a multi-national entrepreneur. Whatever you think of Alan Sugar, he has been a huge success story overall.
My viewpoint post the Brexit fiasco is that I'd like to hear a lot less from MPs and a lot more from people who have made their way in life outside the House of Commons.
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1131530737805602816
> >
> > Gotta love these Union Dividends.
>
> IF you ever leave - well Scotland, you have already left if I recall?
>
> Can't wait to see how your new currency gets on.
>
> Oh wait, you will be in the Euro won't you.
Sterling is currently down 1/10th of 1 cent against the Euro today.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1131476448659722240?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131521879716573184?s=20
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131522332911181826?s=20
In which case the new PM could just prorogue. Then we'd have the fun spectacle of John Bercow trying to run a sham session under squatters rights no doubt.
What's most puzzling is that this must be completely obvious to her many wannabe successors. Why does any of them want a job which is overwhelmingly likely to end in ignominious failure within a few months?
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > I see there are reports of some old bloke acting as a teller getting attacked with a milkshake now. Not even a bloody politician.
>
> https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1131513167975256064
It is disgraceful, but let us get this straight. As a member of the Brexit Party he is not advocating honouring the result of the referendum. He wants a much more extreme version of that result.
> @dixiedean I'm not sure the Tories would get 195 seats if that was the real result. Labour's structure is set up beautifully for resilience below about seat no 200 or so though.
Yes indeed. Just put the IPSOS poll in the header into Baxter, due to boredom. Brexit get a 290 seat majority, but, remarkably, Corbyn is LOTO with 15% of the vote, but 75 seats! Con get 0!
Not saying that is at all likely in any way. Merely evidence how Labour benefit over the Tories with similar votes the lower the vote share goes.
Whoever came up with it should get themselves a gig in the advertising.