> @IanB2 said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU. > > > > Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it. > > HY must have been abroad for the past three years, if he thinks the 2016 vote has been ignored. > > Or, more accurately, he must have returned to visit his home planet, since anyone who has been abroad would know that our currency is worth a lot less and our international reputation is already trashed.
In a world of Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Trump, Modi, Putin, Salvini nationalism the idea we are somehow an international pariah for voting to leave the EU is absurd.
However if that Leave vote is ignored nationalism will advance further here too
> @rpjs said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause). > > They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs). > > > > > > However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain. > > > > Yet it was the LDs who gained at the start of this month, while Brx may do barely better than UKIP next week. > > Funny old world.
The Brexit Party will almost certainly beat the LDs next week, probably by around double their voteshare. The Brexit Party did not stand in the local elections
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > As Scott Morrison, Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Farage etc show the right is most successful at the moment not by pandering to left liberals like you but by actually standing up for what its supporters want. You may not like that, tough! > > We will also see later this week what happens to Modi in India as the final phase of voting closes.
Modi and the BJP are ahead according to the first exit polls
> > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
> >
> > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
> >
> > Desperate stuff.
>
> I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
Recently the Azerbajani electoral commission released the results the day before polling...
> > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
> >
> > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
> >
> > Desperate stuff.
>
> I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
Recently the Azerbajani electoral commission released the results the day before polling...
That looks more plausible. I am not sure of Flavables methodology, but for the 2 LD seats in Leics that they describe, it is certainly a tall order, including my own Harborough.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > > > > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it > > > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit. > > It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU
So it will have to enter into 700 new deals, will it? And you call this a No Deal exit, do you?
And what happens in the interim? How does Britain do the things it needs those treaties to do but can't in the period between a No Deal exit and renegotiating those 700 agreements?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > > > > > > > > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it > > > > > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit. > > > > It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU > > So it will have to enter into 700 new deals, will it? And you call this a No Deal exit, do you? > > And what happens in the interim? How does Britain do the things it needs those treaties to do but can't in the period between a No Deal exit and renegotiating those 700 agreements? > >
We have had almost 3 years of No Deal planning it is not as if the civil service have been doing nothing to prepare.
There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected a 4th time by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit. > > There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
_______________________________
If you don't mind me saying so, you seem to be doing the blurring and aren't at all worried about it. The distinction between agreed departure with deals and an agreed deal is not at all clear to me, nor how this route avoids on the one hand signing up to the Withdrawal Agreement or crashing out with no deal on the other.
> Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> Con 269 > Lab 263 > SNP 56 > Lib Dem 31 > Brexit 8 > PC 4 > Greens 1 > Norn Iron 18 > > That looks more plausible. I am not sure of Flavables methodology, but for the 2 LD seats in Leics that they describe, it is certainly a tall order, including my own Harborough. _______________________________________________________________________________ EMA gives:
Con 25.0% Lab 29.3%, LD 15.8%, Brex 18.7%
Con 240 Lab 308 LD 21 Brex 5 Green 1 PC 4 SNP 53 NI 18
Lab 18 short of overall majority in spite of having a share of less than 30%.
> @HYUFD said: > > There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary ------------
A technical solution will not replace the backstop. The government's published no deal planning information tells you that.
Full report from CUK Rally for those interested (Part 1 of 2):
I arrived about 15 minutes before the advertised start time and there were about 30 people already outside, so my fears of being the only person there were unfounded. Chatted to a couple of others and there was a clear trend in the demographics - all very middle class and generally in their mid-30s to 60s. The sort of people who go to the garden centre at the weekend and visit National Trust castles.
Everyone filed in and then they started handing out the t-shirts. T-shirts they'd managed to print without any text on, just their logo. Not even their party name. I imagine if you wore one in public it would take a while before anyone even recognised what the logo was. Another publicity failure.
By now it was about 2:15 and people were starting to get restless. The only t-shirts left were small, everyone had sat down and there was no clear reason for the delay. Overall it looked like there were about 120-150 people there, most of whom had planned to turn up and didn't seem to have just been roped in off the streets.
Heidi Allen came in and she was clearly the reason most people had come, big round of applause as she managed to walk to the front of the room without tripping over chairs or her microphone failing. One minor success there.
She went over why she left the Conservatives, how CUK was formed and the need for a truly centrist party doing things differently from the two main parties, before moving on to Brexit and the referendum. She'd managed to speak for about 20 minutes without once acknowledging the Lib Dems existed, but spent a lot of time deriding the Conservatives (clapping and applause), incompetent transport ministers (tittering and chuckling) calling Jezza a Brexiteer (polite nodding and muttering of agreement), and calling Farage a liar (orgasmic cheering). She probably could've saved everyone's time by showing the audience a picture of Farage with devil horns and a pitchfork photoshopped on.
Anyway, surprised at how lightly Labour had got off I soon found out why. She introduced the next speaker as the great-great-grandaughter of one of the trade unionists who helped found the Labour party. Unfortunately I've forgotten her name, but she spoke passionately about the antisemitism in Labour and was one of the few speakers who sounded like they had real conviction and beliefs. Not bad for an 18 year old. The next half of her speech was too melodramatic and wasn't going to convince anyone though - she talked about waking up the day after the referendum and crying on seeing the result, writing on her school shirt and how she felt her voice had been ignored. Overall not bad, particularly given her age, but a bit too emotional for me.
Next up were two of the MEP candidates. The first one to speak (Thomas Graham) was so forgettable I had to look up his name writing this. Next was their lead candiate for the East, introduced repeatedly as a rocket scientist. Who actually turned out to be a systems engineer working on rockets. She's probably very competent and intelligent, but unfortunately wasn't a compelling speaker. The sort of person you want running things but who's too nice to get elected.
Then it was time for some Q&A. First question was about the Lib Dems, how no one had mentioned them at all so far, and what the purpose of the CUKs is. Heidi Allen asks for questions to come in pairs and answers an easy second question without replying to the first. After a few more questions someone else says they don't think she answered the first question properly and we get a proper response this time. Unfortunately that response seems to be that the CUKs are there for people who don't want to vote for the Tories or Labour, but would also not vote Lib Dem, which seems a bit like saying you're going to try and appeal to sandal wearing real ale drinkers who hate tuition fees and bar charts.
Neil Carmichael and Roger Casale piped up in response to a couple of questions too, and we even got some proper podium thumping off Carmichael at one point. The best question was from someone who asked if CUK would campaign with Nigel Farage in favour of proportional representation. Allen looked horrified at the thought of even considering it and could barely hold back her disdain for him commenting that the thought would give her nightmares.
CUK coming out in favour of revoke rather than a second referendum came towards the end when someone asked if it was realistic to even hold one in time. Allen was very clear in saying that with the change in Tory leader likely to result in a hard Brexit favouring PM she thought it was now unlikely for a referendum to be possible. They were therefore now in favour of revoking article 50. No real answers about how to deal with the inevtiable fallout that would cause, but at least it's a clear policy position and differentiator from the Lib Dems.
And with that it was all over. Everyone shuffled out and went their separate ways. Probably to try and get to the garden centre before it closed.
> Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> Con 269
> Lab 263
> SNP 56
> Lib Dem 31
> Brexit 8
> PC 4
> Greens 1
> Norn Iron 18
>
> That looks more plausible. I am not sure of Flavables methodology, but for the 2 LD seats in Leics that they describe, it is certainly a tall order, including my own Harborough.
> @El_Capitano said: > I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles. > > Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
I feel like the most common error here is believing things with too much certainty. Believing Clinton would beat Trump was reasonable, believing it with 99% confidence was not.
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it. > > > > Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%. > > > > Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required. > There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension >
This feels more likely now for me too.
The EU was more flexible than I expected in March and April (essentially giving the faffing time that they’d said wouldn’t be possible). That’s alright while there’s a willing PM still seeing if she can push her deal through. If May were to survive, they might again.
But if it’s Boris thumping the table in early October, asking for time to hold an election to win a mandate for No Deal, I suspect the EU (or at least Macron) would sooner flip the coin with the current Parliament than wait for a new one.
> @kle4 said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles. > > > > Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here. > > Then I am happy to tell you that I am usually wrong, but I don't let it stop me from making vehement pronouncements, for what it is worth. I thought Ed M would win, I thought May would win (though not my as much as predicted). I did call leaving right though.
I suspect Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg have fairly thin electoral and betting records (as do I!), but I don’t think contributions from them would lower the average quality of predictions on here
Full report from CUK Rally for those interested (Part 1 of 2): She probably could've saved everyone's time by showing the audience a picture of Farage with devil horns and a pitchfork photoshopped on. .
> I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles.
>
> Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
I feel like the most common error here is believing things with too much certainty. Believing Clinton would beat Trump was reasonable, believing it with 99% confidence was not.
Yes, in hindsight my failure was that whilst I did believe in the possibility of polling failure I thought it would be independent between states. But, of course, the Rust Belt states having similar demographics would mean they would face identical polling failures if there was one.
Which there was.
That was basically the reason Sam Wang's model failed with it's 99% chance of a Clinton victory.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary > ------------ > > A technical solution will not replace the backstop. The government's published no deal planning information tells you that.
It will not do because Barnier as yet refuses to do so, whether the EU might change its mind once we enter a No Deal scenario is yet to be tested
And for the record my political betting history is 2014 Lost of IndyRef 2015 SLab 0-5 seats plus Scottish constituency bets, debate tie colours, you name it I won it. Made out like a bandit 2016 Cleaned up on Republican nomination, Lost small on Holyrood, No bets on Brexit, Lost big on Presidential 2017 SCon seat count plus constituency bets, won big but not as big as 2015
Up overall.
Every party leadership election (or non election in case of Labour) in between - lost every time, I am epically shit at these I should stop betting on them.
> @HYUFD said: > > It will not do because Barnier as yet refuses to do so, whether the EU might change its mind once we enter a No Deal scenario is yet to be tested
The EU can't change its mind about something that doesn't exist.
I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> @Harris_Tweed said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver i > > > > > > The Tories are 20% to get any majority at > > > > > > Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%. > > > > > > Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required. > > There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension > > > > This feels more likely now for me too. > > The EU was more flexible than I expected in March and April (essentially giving the faffing time that they’d said wouldn’t be possible). That’s alright while there’s a willing PM still seeing if she can push her deal through. If May were to survive, they might again. > > But if it’s Boris thumping the table in early October, asking for time to hold an election to win a mandate for No Deal, I suspect the EU (or at least Macron) would sooner flip the coin with the current Parliament than wait for a new one.
Yes and that would finally force the Commons to make a decision but they should be aware choosing Revoke or No Deal in October will have far graver consequences than simply passing the WA next month and deciding the future relationship later
Is that what Seamus has been briefing journos? We would have, but the nasty boys over there won't let us? Trying to keep the cult happy, that the messiah is definitely really has done everything possible to stop Brexit.
Mauve, Thanks for the report, which I enjoyed reading. I particularly liked the way that CHUK is meant to appeal to people who don't vote Labour, Tory or LibDem.
There should be a pb medal -- the Order of the Golden Smithson -- given for services above and beyond the call of duty.
And attending a CHUK rally seems to fall into that class.
Mauve, Thanks for the report, which I enjoyed reading. I particularly liked the way that CHUK is meant to appeal to people who don't vote Labour, Tory or LibDem.
There should be a pb medal -- the Order of the Golden Smithson -- given for services above and beyond the call of duty.
And attending a CHUK rally seems to fall into that class.
No problem, I actually found it all quite interesting. There's clearly a desire among Remain voters for a clearly Remain party. Unfortunately I'm not sure either the Lib Dems or Change UK are up to the job of taking on Farage, they just haven't been able to find a strong enough leader to present the cause. There was at least a recognition of the failures of the 2016 Remain campaign, particularly how Project Fear didn't work and the lack of anyone presenting a case for the positives of EU membership.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP. > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on. -------------- As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
> @kle4 said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP. > > > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on. > -------------- > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Stare into the abyss for long enough, and it will stare back into you.
> @kle4 said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP. > > > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on. > -------------- > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
> @nico67 said: > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal . > > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament . > > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref . > > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
Yep I think that is a reasonable assessment. I am not personally as worried about the effects of No Deal as the catastrophists keep pushing but certainly don't view it as the preferable outcome except in a direct contest with Revoke. But I do believe mine remains a minority position.
We aren't ever gonna be in Schengen, or the CU, or anything. Irrelevant.
We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> @Byronic said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Switzerland approves stricter gun laws in order to remain part of Schengen. > > , > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1130155154471358465<; > > +++++++ > > We aren't ever gonna be in Schengen, or the CU, or anything. Irrelevant. > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems. > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict. > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it. > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not. >
> @tlg86 said: > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
> @FrancisUrquhart said: Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar. > > I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
Since SeanT's rantathons have included defences of Tommy Robinson and Milo at various times, I'm not sure if the differentiation is as clear as you suggest.
> > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> --------------
> As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
Had his tyres slashed earlier in the campaign too, looking at his telegram.
> You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
-------
I acknowledge that; I was only flagging up that Maugham and Moran appeared to be taking it seriously.
Worth pointing out though that Dan Snow has a lot to lose if it were proven he was making it up. I also think it could be a genuine mistake, either on Snow's part (opening several pieces of mail together and getting confused) or at the printers.
If we see no more examples of this then I think we can assume it's fake news.
> @tlg86 said: > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
---
That is a good point. Postal ballots went out some time ago.
But, if it really happened, why doesn't Dan Snow himself complain directly to the Electoral Commission.
Instead, he seems to have posted it to Twitter so that a tidy of fraction of his 272k followers will complain, none of whom will have any evidence other than his tweet.
> > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> --------------
> As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
He has liked dodgy tweets about jews?
Citation needed.
I think almost all politicians have spoken positively about terrorists, even James Cleverly a Conservative MP was bigging up Nelson Mandela the other day.
Edit: The support of Saudi's war in Yemen might be a good example but that doesn't equate the Conservatives with people like Carl Benjamin and Tommy Robinson.
Completely off topic, the Chrysler Building in New York sold for $800m on the eve of the financial crisis. It's just been sold again, a decade late, for...
> @kle4 said: > > @tlg86 said: > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon. > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.
> > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> --------------
> As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
> @Benpointer said: vant. > > > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems. > > > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict. > > > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it. > > > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not. > > > > A price worth paying for what? <
+++++++
For "freedom"?
I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
> @Benpointer said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP. > > > > > > > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on. > > > -------------- > > > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming. > > > > Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar. > > > > I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters. > > > > The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued. > > > > Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece. > > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Yes, he's an arsehole who likes shock 'humour'. But while many people have gotten egged over the years, I'm sure none of us want to go down a route where throwing things and hassling candidates becomes basically a game, a bit of fun 'oh, I'll throw this at that horrible candidate'.
> > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
> >
> > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
> >
> > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
> >
> > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> >
>
> A price worth paying for what? <
+++++++
For "freedom"?
I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
Ok, I see where you're coming from now.
I disagree though... Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
> @Benpointer said: > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Tbf he did clarify further.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > He has liked dodgy tweets about jews? > > > > > > Citation needed. > > > > Correction, Facebook posts supporting dodgy posts about Jews e.g. the clearly antisemitic mural. > > Citation needed, you are using a plural. > > Also he didn't like as in click like in it, he made a post complaining about another piece of graffiti that was also due to be washed/cleaned off.
Give it a rest. The point here isn't Jezza has a trouble history of supporting some really dodgy types, it is should he be egged or silenced because of it. And I am saying, absolutely not.
> Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Tbf he did clarify further.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
Yes indeed, that makes it all so much better (!)
I console myself that anyone with such robust views will not be such a snowflake as to be upset by a few milkshakes.
> @Benpointer said: Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
----------- Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us.
> > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
>
> > --------------
>
> > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
>
>
>
> Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
>
>
>
> I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
>
>
>
> The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
>
>
>
> Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
>
> Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Yes, he's an arsehole who likes shock 'humour'. But while many people have gotten egged over the years, I'm sure none of us want to go down a route where throwing things and hassling candidates becomes basically a game, a bit of fun 'oh, I'll throw this at that horrible candidate'.
Yes I agree with that but if you play dirty don't expect your opponents not to retaliate dirtily.
> @tlg86 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon. > > > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post > > I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
++++++
I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
> @kle4 said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP. > > > > > > > > > > > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on. > > > > > -------------- > > > > > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming. > > > > > > > > Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar. > > > > > > > > I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters. > > > > > > > > The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued. > > > > > > > > Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece. > > > > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips? > > Yes, he's an arsehole who likes shock 'humour'. But while many people have gotten egged over the years, I'm sure none of us want to go down a route where throwing things and hassling candidates becomes basically a game, a bit of fun 'oh, I'll throw this at that horrible candidate'.
How about a route where multinational corporations endorse that behaviour through social media?
Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
-----------
Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us.
Well surely the point is, the No-deal Brexit truth would have a very limited appeal.
> @Byronic said: > > @Benpointer said: > vant. > > > > > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems. > > > > > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict. > > > > > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it. > > > > > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not. > > > > > > > A price worth paying for what? < > > +++++++ > > For "freedom"? > > I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors. > > Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,. > > But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie." > > I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
The opinion from the Establishment that no No Deal is bad is not verified. Wrong time and time again.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips? > > > > > > Tbf he did clarify further. > > > > “There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.” > > Yes indeed, that makes it all so much better (!) > > I console myself that anyone with such robust views will not be such a snowflake as to be upset by a few milkshakes.
I am surprised you take such a flippant attitude toward people treating it like a game to hassle candidates and throw things at them. Carl Benjamain is an utter cock who one can only hope is humiliated with a truly terrible result for his party, but for those treating it like a bit of fun how about it happens (perhaps it already has) to that nice Caroline Lucas, or other people with less repellant attitudes, is it still funny then? Him getting upset about it is irrelevant, because who he is is irrelevant.
We don't need to suggest no one has ever been egged before, or that it will inevitably lead to the kind of far more serious escalation that we know is possible, that would not be fair, but surely no one could argue it would be better all around if no candidates get hassled in such a manner.
It would remove one aspect of their grievance complex for a start. Let the odious campaign so long as they do so within the rules. If we don't trust the people not to recognise them for what they are what does that say about us?
And 'he started it' would not be much of a defence, if used. We can be better than him.
I > @Byronic said: > > @Benpointer said: > vant. > > > > > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems. > > > > > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict. > > > > > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it. > > > > > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not. > > > > > > > A price worth paying for what? < > > +++++++ > > For "freedom"? > > I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors. > > Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,. > > But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie." > > I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
A lot of pain and compromise to deliver what. It’s astonishing, what exactly is all the pain supposed to deliver .
We’ve reached the truly absurd . No longer is Brexit supposed to deliver sunny uplands . It now just has to happen because it has to happen. So Bozo stands there channeling his Churchill .
Except it’s not WW2 , generally sane countries don’t try and harm themselves and their citizens .
> > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
> >
> > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
>
> I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
++++++
I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
I don't think he's suggesting that 'the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0'. Rather that something underhand has gone on in at least one case.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Benpointer said: > > Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo. > > > > ----------- > > Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us. > > Well surely the point is, the No-deal Brexit truth would have a very limited appeal.
I'm sure it would, but any position would have more limited appeal when given truthfully. Not as limited as no deal Brexit, but we don't reward politicians to be straight with us.
> @Benpointer said: > > @tlg86 said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon. > > > > > > > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post > > > > > > I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.< > > > > ++++++ > > > > I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake? > > > > He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit. > > I don't think he's suggesting that 'the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0'. Rather that something underhand has gone on in at least one case.
> > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
> > >
> > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
> > >
> > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
> > >
> > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> > >
> >
> > A price worth paying for what? <
>
> +++++++
>
> For "freedom"?
>
> I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
>
> Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
>
> But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
>
> I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
The opinion from the Establishment that no No Deal is bad is not verified. Wrong time and time again.
It's not verified but you can be sure it's wrong? How so?
> Correction, Facebook posts supporting dodgy posts about Jews e.g. the clearly antisemitic mural.
>
> Citation needed, you are using a plural.
>
> Also he didn't like as in click like in it, he made a post complaining about another piece of graffiti that was also due to be washed/cleaned off.
Give it a rest. The point here isn't Jezza has a trouble history of supporting some really dodgy types, it is should he be egged or silenced because of it. And I am saying, absolutely not.
Well your example rather falls down as they don't merit comparison, you have to take your Conservative rose tinted specs off for a second and realise that Tory politicians probably merit more comparison to those types but still aren't the same people.
The Tories have plenty of problems with racism, from go home vans to windrush to Boris Johnson to several top Conservatives meeting Steve Bannon, you may be happy with all this stuff but this makes them a much closer comparison to Tommy Robinson types. In fact the likes of Bannon, Trump and Robinson would probably have overlaps in support.
If your point was politicians don't deserve to be egged then someone like say Rory Stewart and Corbyn obviously don't deserve it but neither do the likes of May and Boris.
At a far lower level it is at least more questionable with Tommy as he is basically a street thug, the one young Asian teen who threw his milkshake at Tommy was aggressively surrounded by Tommy and his thugs (there is also a different video of this lot marching through the street and taking some person down for seemingly not moving) In fairness to Carl Benjamin I don't think the same applies to him as Tommy Robinson. He says very distasteful things but he doesn't (directly anyway) put out the same kind of physical threat.
Edit: Also Corbyn wasn't just egged, he was hit by a guy with the egg in his hand, it was pretty much a physical attack rather than throwing food/drink.
> @RobD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > > @tlg86 said: > > > > > > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon. > > > > > > > > > > > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post > > > > > > > > > > I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.< > > > > > > > > ++++++ > > > > > > > > I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake? > > > > > > > > He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit. > > > > I don't think he's suggesting that 'the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0'. Rather that something underhand has gone on in at least one case. > > Or a mistake, perhaps?
> Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
>
>
>
> -----------
>
> Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us.
>
> Well surely the point is, the No-deal Brexit truth would have a very limited appeal.
I'm sure it would, but any position would have more limited appeal when given truthfully. Not as limited as no deal Brexit, but we don't reward politicians to be straight with us.
No, I don't think that's true. Cast you mind back to say... the minimum wage, gay marriage, tightening gun laws after Dunblane, the smoking ban, etc. etc.
I think there are plenty of positions which when presented truthfully would have had (did have) high levels of support. For some of the examples I mention it was misinformation that reduced the level of support ahead of the measure actually coming into effect.
> > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
> >
> > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
>
> I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
++++++
I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
> > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
>
>
>
>
>
> Tbf he did clarify further.
>
>
>
> “There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
>
> Yes indeed, that makes it all so much better (!)
>
> I console myself that anyone with such robust views will not be such a snowflake as to be upset by a few milkshakes.
I am surprised you take such a flippant attitude toward people treating it like a game to hassle candidates and throw things at them. Carl Benjamain is an utter cock who one can only hope is humiliated with a truly terrible result for his party, but for those treating it like a bit of fun how about it happens (perhaps it already has) to that nice Caroline Lucas, or other people with less repellant attitudes, is it still funny then? Him getting upset about it is irrelevant, because who he is is irrelevant.
We don't need to suggest no one has ever been egged before, or that it will inevitably lead to the kind of far more serious escalation that we know is possible, that would not be fair, but surely no one could argue it would be better all around if no candidates get hassled in such a manner.
It would remove one aspect of their grievance complex for a start. Let the odious campaign so long as they do so within the rules. If we don't trust the people not to recognise them for what they are what does that say about us?
And 'he started it' would not be much of a defence, if used. We can be better than him.
I wouldn't do it; I don't condone it. I merely note if you play dirty others will feel licence to retaliate dirtily.
Boris pretending to be a hard-Brexiteer. Boris pretending to be a faithful husband. Boris pretending to be a man of the people. Boris pretending to be a serious politician. ....
Comments
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
> >
> > Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it.
>
> HY must have been abroad for the past three years, if he thinks the 2016 vote has been ignored.
>
> Or, more accurately, he must have returned to visit his home planet, since anyone who has been abroad would know that our currency is worth a lot less and our international reputation is already trashed.
In a world of Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Trump, Modi, Putin, Salvini nationalism the idea we are somehow an international pariah for voting to leave the EU is absurd.
However if that Leave vote is ignored nationalism will advance further here too
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
>
> They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
A mere detail.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs).
> >
> >
> > However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain.
> >
>
> Yet it was the LDs who gained at the start of this month, while Brx may do barely better than UKIP next week.
>
> Funny old world.
The Brexit Party will almost certainly beat the LDs next week, probably by around double their voteshare. The Brexit Party did not stand in the local elections
> As Scott Morrison, Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Farage etc show the right is most successful at the moment not by pandering to left liberals like you but by actually standing up for what its supporters want. You may not like that, tough!
>
> We will also see later this week what happens to Modi in India as the final phase of voting closes.
Modi and the BJP are ahead according to the first exit polls
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48328259
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> >
> > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> >
> > > > > >
> >
> > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> >
> > > > > >
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> >
> > >
> >
> > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
> >
> >
> >
> > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
> >
> > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
>
> It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU
So it will have to enter into 700 new deals, will it? And you call this a No Deal exit, do you?
And what happens in the interim? How does Britain do the things it needs those treaties to do but can't in the period between a No Deal exit and renegotiating those 700 agreements?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > >
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > >
> > >
> > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > >
> > > > > > >
> > >
> > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > >
> > > > > > >
> > >
> > > > > >
> > >
> > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
> > >
> > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
> >
> > It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU
>
> So it will have to enter into 700 new deals, will it? And you call this a No Deal exit, do you?
>
> And what happens in the interim? How does Britain do the things it needs those treaties to do but can't in the period between a No Deal exit and renegotiating those 700 agreements?
>
>
We have had almost 3 years of No Deal planning it is not as if the civil service have been doing nothing to prepare.
There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected a 4th time by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
>
>
> > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> > > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
>
> > >
>
> > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> >
>
> > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
>
>
>
> Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
>
> Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
>
> There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
_______________________________
If you don't mind me saying so, you seem to be doing the blurring and aren't at all worried about it. The distinction between agreed departure with deals and an agreed deal is not at all clear to me, nor how this route avoids on the one hand signing up to the Withdrawal Agreement or crashing out with no deal on the other.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594
> Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> Con 269
> Lab 263
> SNP 56
> Lib Dem 31
> Brexit 8
> PC 4
> Greens 1
> Norn Iron 18
>
> That looks more plausible. I am not sure of Flavables methodology, but for the 2 LD seats in Leics that they describe, it is certainly a tall order, including my own Harborough.
_______________________________________________________________________________
EMA gives:
Con 25.0% Lab 29.3%, LD 15.8%, Brex 18.7%
Con 240
Lab 308
LD 21
Brex 5
Green 1
PC 4
SNP 53
NI 18
Lab 18 short of overall majority in spite of having a share of less than 30%.
>
> There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary
------------
A technical solution will not replace the backstop. The government's published no deal planning information tells you that.
I arrived about 15 minutes before the advertised start time and there were about 30 people already outside, so my fears of being the only person there were unfounded. Chatted to a couple of others and there was a clear trend in the demographics - all very middle class and generally in their mid-30s to 60s. The sort of people who go to the garden centre at the weekend and visit National Trust castles.
Everyone filed in and then they started handing out the t-shirts. T-shirts they'd managed to print without any text on, just their logo. Not even their party name. I imagine if you wore one in public it would take a while before anyone even recognised what the logo was. Another publicity failure.
By now it was about 2:15 and people were starting to get restless. The only t-shirts left were small, everyone had sat down and there was no clear reason for the delay. Overall it looked like there were about 120-150 people there, most of whom had planned to turn up and didn't seem to have just been roped in off the streets.
Heidi Allen came in and she was clearly the reason most people had come, big round of applause as she managed to walk to the front of the room without tripping over chairs or her microphone failing. One minor success there.
She went over why she left the Conservatives, how CUK was formed and the need for a truly centrist party doing things differently from the two main parties, before moving on to Brexit and the referendum. She'd managed to speak for about 20 minutes without once acknowledging the Lib Dems existed, but spent a lot of time deriding the Conservatives (clapping and applause), incompetent transport ministers (tittering and chuckling) calling Jezza a Brexiteer (polite nodding and muttering of agreement), and calling Farage a liar (orgasmic cheering). She probably could've saved everyone's time by showing the audience a picture of Farage with devil horns and a pitchfork photoshopped on.
Anyway, surprised at how lightly Labour had got off I soon found out why. She introduced the next speaker as the great-great-grandaughter of one of the trade unionists who helped found the Labour party. Unfortunately I've forgotten her name, but she spoke passionately about the antisemitism in Labour and was one of the few speakers who sounded like they had real conviction and beliefs. Not bad for an 18 year old. The next half of her speech was too melodramatic and wasn't going to convince anyone though - she talked about waking up the day after the referendum and crying on seeing the result, writing on her school shirt and how she felt her voice had been ignored. Overall not bad, particularly given her age, but a bit too emotional for me.
Next up were two of the MEP candidates. The first one to speak (Thomas Graham) was so forgettable I had to look up his name writing this. Next was their lead candiate for the East, introduced repeatedly as a rocket scientist. Who actually turned out to be a systems engineer working on rockets. She's probably very competent and intelligent, but unfortunately wasn't a compelling speaker. The sort of person you want running things but who's too nice to get elected.
Then it was time for some Q&A. First question was about the Lib Dems, how no one had mentioned them at all so far, and what the purpose of the CUKs is. Heidi Allen asks for questions to come in pairs and answers an easy second question without replying to the first. After a few more questions someone else says they don't think she answered the first question properly and we get a proper response this time. Unfortunately that response seems to be that the CUKs are there for people who don't want to vote for the Tories or Labour, but would also not vote Lib Dem, which seems a bit like saying you're going to try and appeal to sandal wearing real ale drinkers who hate tuition fees and bar charts.
Neil Carmichael and Roger Casale piped up in response to a couple of questions too, and we even got some proper podium thumping off Carmichael at one point. The best question was from someone who asked if CUK would campaign with Nigel Farage in favour of proportional representation. Allen looked horrified at the thought of even considering it and could barely hold back her disdain for him commenting that the thought would give her nightmares.
CUK coming out in favour of revoke rather than a second referendum came towards the end when someone asked if it was realistic to even hold one in time. Allen was very clear in saying that with the change in Tory leader likely to result in a hard Brexit favouring PM she thought it was now unlikely for a referendum to be possible. They were therefore now in favour of revoking article 50. No real answers about how to deal with the inevtiable fallout that would cause, but at least it's a clear policy position and differentiator from the Lib Dems.
And with that it was all over. Everyone shuffled out and went their separate ways. Probably to try and get to the garden centre before it closed.
> I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles.
>
> Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
I feel like the most common error here is believing things with too much certainty. Believing Clinton would beat Trump was reasonable, believing it with 99% confidence was not.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > > >
> > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> > >
> > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> >
> > The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it.
> >
> > Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%.
> >
> > Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required.
> There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension
>
This feels more likely now for me too.
The EU was more flexible than I expected in March and April (essentially giving the faffing time that they’d said wouldn’t be possible). That’s alright while there’s a willing PM still seeing if she can push her deal through. If May were to survive, they might again.
But if it’s Boris thumping the table in early October, asking for time to hold an election to win a mandate for No Deal, I suspect the EU (or at least Macron) would sooner flip the coin with the current Parliament than wait for a new one.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles.
> >
> > Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
>
> Then I am happy to tell you that I am usually wrong, but I don't let it stop me from making vehement pronouncements, for what it is worth. I thought Ed M would win, I thought May would win (though not my as much as predicted). I did call leaving right though.
I suspect Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg have fairly thin electoral and betting records (as do I!), but I don’t think contributions from them would lower the average quality of predictions on here
Many thanks.
I find that a little hard to believe!!
Which there was.
That was basically the reason Sam Wang's model failed with it's 99% chance of a Clinton victory.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > There is a rising anger amongst Leave voters up and down the country we are still in the EU as Thursday will prove when the Brexit Party storms to victory and if the WA is rejected by the Commons then No Deal it will have to be until a new WA can be negotiated with the EU, with a technical solution replacing the backstop if necessary
> ------------
>
> A technical solution will not replace the backstop. The government's published no deal planning information tells you that.
It will not do because Barnier as yet refuses to do so, whether the EU might change its mind once we enter a No Deal scenario is yet to be tested
2014 Lost of IndyRef
2015 SLab 0-5 seats plus Scottish constituency bets, debate tie colours, you name it I won it. Made out like a bandit
2016 Cleaned up on Republican nomination, Lost small on Holyrood, No bets on Brexit, Lost big on Presidential
2017 SCon seat count plus constituency bets, won big but not as big as 2015
Up overall.
Every party leadership election (or non election in case of Labour) in between - lost every time, I am epically shit at these I should stop betting on them.
>
> It will not do because Barnier as yet refuses to do so, whether the EU might change its mind once we enter a No Deal scenario is yet to be tested
The EU can't change its mind about something that doesn't exist.
Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> > > >
> > > > The 'will deliver i
> > >
> > > The Tories are 20% to get any majority at
> > >
> > > Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%.
> > >
> > > Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required.
> > There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension
> >
>
> This feels more likely now for me too.
>
> The EU was more flexible than I expected in March and April (essentially giving the faffing time that they’d said wouldn’t be possible). That’s alright while there’s a willing PM still seeing if she can push her deal through. If May were to survive, they might again.
>
> But if it’s Boris thumping the table in early October, asking for time to hold an election to win a mandate for No Deal, I suspect the EU (or at least Macron) would sooner flip the coin with the current Parliament than wait for a new one.
Yes and that would finally force the Commons to make a decision but they should be aware choosing Revoke or No Deal in October will have far graver consequences than simply passing the WA next month and deciding the future relationship later
> https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
>
I presume it is some attempt at a joke?
> twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130193364463304704
Is that what Seamus has been briefing journos? We would have, but the nasty boys over there won't let us? Trying to keep the cult happy, that the messiah is definitely really has done everything possible to stop Brexit.
There should be a pb medal -- the Order of the Golden Smithson -- given for services above and beyond the call of duty.
And attending a CHUK rally seems to fall into that class.
> Interesting ChUK write-up Mauve, thanks for that
Seconded. An interesting insight into the Garden Centre Party.
> I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
>
> Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
--------------
As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> --------------
> As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Stare into the abyss for long enough, and it will stare back into you.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> --------------
> As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
> Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal .
>
> The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
>
> The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
>
> No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
Yep I think that is a reasonable assessment. I am not personally as worried about the effects of No Deal as the catastrophists keep pushing but certainly don't view it as the preferable outcome except in a direct contest with Revoke. But I do believe mine remains a minority position.
> Interesting ChUK write-up Mauve, thanks for that
+1. More reports like that from different events would be interesting. Has anyone hgere been to one of Farage's revivalist gatherings?
> > @brendan16 said:
> > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> >
>
> I presume it is some attempt at a joke?
--------------------
Jo Maugham and Layla Moran don't seem to think it's a joke...
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1130138698413236231
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1130148080572092416
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > >
> >
> > I presume it is some attempt at a joke?
>
> --------------------
>
> Jo Maugham and Layla Moran don't seem to think it's a joke...
>
> https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1130138698413236231
>
> https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1130148080572092416
You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
> Switzerland approves stricter gun laws in order to remain part of Schengen.
> ,
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1130155154471358465<;
+++++++
We aren't ever gonna be in Schengen, or the CU, or anything. Irrelevant.
We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Switzerland approves stricter gun laws in order to remain part of Schengen.
> > ,
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1130155154471358465<;
>
> +++++++
>
> We aren't ever gonna be in Schengen, or the CU, or anything. Irrelevant.
>
> We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
>
> I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
>
> Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
>
> Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
>
A price worth paying for what?
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > > >
> > >
> > > I presume it is some attempt at a joke?
> >
> > --------------------
> >
> > Jo Maugham and Layla Moran don't seem to think it's a joke...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1130138698413236231
> >
> > https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1130148080572092416
>
> You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
It just proves how cunning the Brexit Party are.
> Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
>
> I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
Since SeanT's rantathons have included defences of Tommy Robinson and Milo at various times, I'm not sure if the differentiation is as clear as you suggest.
SNIP
> You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
-------
I acknowledge that; I was only flagging up that Maugham and Moran appeared to be taking it seriously.
Worth pointing out though that Dan Snow has a lot to lose if it were proven he was making it up. I also think it could be a genuine mistake, either on Snow's part (opening several pieces of mail together and getting confused) or at the printers.
If we see no more examples of this then I think we can assume it's fake news.
> Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
---
That is a good point. Postal ballots went out some time ago.
But, if it really happened, why doesn't Dan Snow himself complain directly to the Electoral Commission.
Instead, he seems to have posted it to Twitter so that a tidy of fraction of his 272k followers will complain, none of whom will have any evidence other than his tweet.
Citation needed.
I think almost all politicians have spoken positively about terrorists, even James Cleverly a Conservative MP was bigging up Nelson Mandela the other day.
Edit: The support of Saudi's war in Yemen might be a good example but that doesn't equate the Conservatives with people like Carl Benjamin and Tommy Robinson.
$150m
https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/new-york-chrysler-building-sells-less-than-purchased-decade-ago
> You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
Heartbreaking that the love affair between Brexityoons and Hero of the Union (2011-2014) Dan has ended in tears.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
>
> I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.
vant.
> >
> > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
> >
> > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
> >
> > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
> >
> > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> >
>
> A price worth paying for what? <
+++++++
For "freedom"?
I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> He has liked dodgy tweets about jews?
>
> Citation needed.
Correction, Facebook posts supporting dodgy posts about Jews e.g. the clearly antisemitic mural.
The point is, I don't think he should be banned from Facebook for it or that he "has it coming" to be egged.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
>
> > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
>
> > >
>
> > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
>
> > --------------
>
> > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
>
>
>
> Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
>
>
>
> I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
>
>
>
> The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
>
>
>
> Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
>
> Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Yes, he's an arsehole who likes shock 'humour'. But while many people have gotten egged over the years, I'm sure none of us want to go down a route where throwing things and hassling candidates becomes basically a game, a bit of fun 'oh, I'll throw this at that horrible candidate'.
Also he didn't like as in click like in it, he made a post complaining about another piece of graffiti that was also due to be washed/cleaned off.
I disagree though... Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
> Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
Tbf he did clarify further.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > He has liked dodgy tweets about jews?
>
> >
>
> > Citation needed.
>
>
>
> Correction, Facebook posts supporting dodgy posts about Jews e.g. the clearly antisemitic mural.
>
> Citation needed, you are using a plural.
>
> Also he didn't like as in click like in it, he made a post complaining about another piece of graffiti that was also due to be washed/cleaned off.
Give it a rest. The point here isn't Jezza has a trouble history of supporting some really dodgy types, it is should he be egged or silenced because of it. And I am saying, absolutely not.
I console myself that anyone with such robust views will not be such a snowflake as to be upset by a few milkshakes.
Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
-----------
Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
> >
> > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
>
> I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
++++++
I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> >
> > > > I see Carl Benjamin has been attacked yet again. Some of the usual outlets have been rather quiet about this, seems quite a bit double standard given how much of a massive thing they made of the yellow vest nutters yelling crap at an MP.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Egging Corbyn or throwing milkshakes over Carl Benjamin, is just not on.
> >
> > > --------------
> >
> > > As much of a git as he appears to be, that does seem right. Anyone who thinks it ok because 'they have it coming' should be wary that other people have different ideas of what people have coming, and which people have it coming.
> >
> >
> >
> > Not only that, but all this has been whipped up about him, making him out as some dangerous extremist in the Tommy Robinson vein. But he actually isn't. He isn't even in the same category of that Milo guy, who deliberately went around looking to cause an uproar.
> >
> >
> >
> > I don't agree with him, but his shtick was not hugely different to a classic SeanT rantathons. Offensive, absolutely, but I think this is really dangerous that we have all this whipping up of anger against the likes of him and then on the other side with the yellow vest nutters.
> >
> >
> >
> > The best way to defeat this is no attacking them with milkshakes or banning them, it is presenting a better argument. I don't think Jezza should be silenced, or egged, because he has liked dodgy tweets about Jews and supported terrorists. I think he should be challenged on them and his flawed 1970 socialist policies out argued.
> >
> >
> >
> > Benjamin has had his livelihood taken away from him, as YouTube have decided to demonetise his channels despite not breaking any rules. I find that extremely disturbing, as from the little bit of the content of his I have seen it is just a cross between PC-gone mad, free speech absolutist and amateur historian stuff about ancient Greece.
> >
> > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
>
> Yes, he's an arsehole who likes shock 'humour'. But while many people have gotten egged over the years, I'm sure none of us want to go down a route where throwing things and hassling candidates becomes basically a game, a bit of fun 'oh, I'll throw this at that horrible candidate'.
How about a route where multinational corporations endorse that behaviour through social media?
https://twitter.com/BurgerKingUK/status/1129748114129215491
> > @Benpointer said:
> vant.
> > >
> > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
> > >
> > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
> > >
> > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
> > >
> > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> > >
> >
> > A price worth paying for what? <
>
> +++++++
>
> For "freedom"?
>
> I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
>
> Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
>
> But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
>
> I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
The opinion from the Establishment that no No Deal is bad is not verified. Wrong time and time again.
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > Is that not the same Carl Benjamin who previously tweeted “I wouldn’t even rape you” to the Labour MP Jess Phillips?
>
>
>
>
>
> Tbf he did clarify further.
>
>
>
> “There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
>
> Yes indeed, that makes it all so much better (!)
>
> I console myself that anyone with such robust views will not be such a snowflake as to be upset by a few milkshakes.
I am surprised you take such a flippant attitude toward people treating it like a game to hassle candidates and throw things at them. Carl Benjamain is an utter cock who one can only hope is humiliated with a truly terrible result for his party, but for those treating it like a bit of fun how about it happens (perhaps it already has) to that nice Caroline Lucas, or other people with less repellant attitudes, is it still funny then? Him getting upset about it is irrelevant, because who he is is irrelevant.
We don't need to suggest no one has ever been egged before, or that it will inevitably lead to the kind of far more serious escalation that we know is possible, that would not be fair, but surely no one could argue it would be better all around if no candidates get hassled in such a manner.
It would remove one aspect of their grievance complex for a start. Let the odious campaign so long as they do so within the rules. If we don't trust the people not to recognise them for what they are what does that say about us?
And 'he started it' would not be much of a defence, if used. We can be better than him.
> > @Benpointer said:
> vant.
> > >
> > > We are now clearly headed for No Deal. Shall we take a PB vote on how bad this well be? In terms of GDP, unemployment, etc? After the failure of Project Fear I no longer believe the worst case Treasury scenarios, as they presume the UK would do nothing to ameliorate the problems.
> > >
> > > I predict No Deal will be pretty bad, but nowhere near as bad as the apocalypse some predict.
> > >
> > > Probably a short sharp recession. A further but modest fall in house prices, though more intense in London. And that's it.
> > >
> > > Would that destroy the Tories? I doubt it. But what they really really need is a leader who can sell it as a price worth paying. That *could* be Boris. Or not.
> > >
> >
> > A price worth paying for what? <
>
> +++++++
>
> For "freedom"?
>
> I'm not speaking as a Leaver, I am speaking neutrally (and a begrudging Remain voter), and wondering what a Tory leader could sell to eurosceptic electors.
>
> Someone down the thread said the Tories need a leader to sell "blood, sweat and tears" and I think that is bang on. If the Tories can miraculously conjure up a charismatic Brexiteer politician who will be honert, plausible yet persuasive on Brexit then they could easily win in 2022 or whenever,.
>
> But that Brexiteer has to have the backbone to stand up and say "I believe in Brexit and I will deliver it, but there will be pain, and compromise, let's not lie."
>
> I think voters will respect that. T May's terrible error was taking the opposite course. Pretending she could deliver a rock hard Brexit with no damage at all to the economy, and no obvious plan for what happened afterwards. She tried to triangulate an issue that cannot be triangulated.
A lot of pain and compromise to deliver what. It’s astonishing, what exactly is all the pain supposed to deliver .
We’ve reached the truly absurd . No longer is Brexit supposed to deliver sunny uplands . It now just has to happen because it has to happen. So Bozo stands there channeling his Churchill .
Except it’s not WW2 , generally sane countries don’t try and harm themselves and their citizens .
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> Whilst it would be an honest approach, any party leader going into an election on with that stance will be heavily defeated imo.
>
>
>
> -----------
>
> Yes, for all we have legitimate reasons to complain about our political leaders, when it comes to how we would reward them for honest or realistic promises, that one is on us.
>
> Well surely the point is, the No-deal Brexit truth would have a very limited appeal.
I'm sure it would, but any position would have more limited appeal when given truthfully. Not as limited as no deal Brexit, but we don't reward politicians to be straight with us.
> > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> > > > @tlg86 said:
>
> > > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
>
> > >
>
> > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
>
> >
>
> > I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
>
>
>
> ++++++
>
>
>
> I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
>
>
>
> He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
>
> I don't think he's suggesting that 'the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0'. Rather that something underhand has gone on in at least one case.
Or a mistake, perhaps?
The Tories have plenty of problems with racism, from go home vans to windrush to Boris Johnson to several top Conservatives meeting Steve Bannon, you may be happy with all this stuff but this makes them a much closer comparison to Tommy Robinson types. In fact the likes of Bannon, Trump and Robinson would probably have overlaps in support.
If your point was politicians don't deserve to be egged then someone like say Rory Stewart and Corbyn obviously don't deserve it but neither do the likes of May and Boris.
At a far lower level it is at least more questionable with Tommy as he is basically a street thug, the one young Asian teen who threw his milkshake at Tommy was aggressively surrounded by Tommy and his thugs (there is also a different video of this lot marching through the street and taking some person down for seemingly not moving) In fairness to Carl Benjamin I don't think the same applies to him as Tommy Robinson. He says very distasteful things but he doesn't (directly anyway) put out the same kind of physical threat.
Edit: Also Corbyn wasn't just egged, he was hit by a guy with the egg in his hand, it was pretty much a physical attack rather than throwing food/drink.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> >
> > > > @kle4 said:
> >
> > > > > @tlg86 said:
> >
> > > > > Is Dan Snow not cutting it fine for doing his postal vote? I'd have thought they'd have been sent out weeks ago and needed to be returned quite soon.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > I believe you can actually hand your postal vote in in person if it is too late to post
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I believe so, but it seems odd that he's only just received it.<
> >
> >
> >
> > ++++++
> >
> >
> >
> > I got my postal vote four weeks ago. TBH I think Dan Snow might be fibbing. Or it is just a very rare mistake?
> >
> >
> >
> > He's edging toward flat earthism if he thinks the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0. I really do despair of high profile Remainers: they need a level headed charming figure head, instead, as I have said before, even the best of them look a bit demented by Brexit.
> >
> > I don't think he's suggesting that 'the entire UK electoral system is conspiring with Nigel Farage to fix the vote for UKIP 2.0'. Rather that something underhand has gone on in at least one case.
>
> Or a mistake, perhaps?
Someone having a lark, more likely. Ignore.
No, I don't think that's true. Cast you mind back to say... the minimum wage, gay marriage, tightening gun laws after Dunblane, the smoking ban, etc. etc.
I think there are plenty of positions which when presented truthfully would have had (did have) high levels of support. For some of the examples I mention it was misinformation that reduced the level of support ahead of the measure actually coming into effect.
>
> The opinion from the Establishment that no No Deal is bad is not verified. Wrong time and time again.
------
What do you expect to happen in the days following no deal? Something approaching everything carrying on as normal?
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > I presume it is some attempt at a joke?
> > >
> > > --------------------
> > >
> > > Jo Maugham and Layla Moran don't seem to think it's a joke...
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1130138698413236231
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1130148080572092416
> >
> > You aren't in the slightest bit suspicious that the only time this has happened, it was to a prominent remainer?
>
> It just proves how cunning the Brexit Party are.
The Russians are everywhere.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1130165225842515968
"In England, Scotland and Wales, the deadline to apply to vote by post in the European Parliamentary elections on 23 May is 5pm on Wednesday 8 May."
If you applied close to the deadline it might not be surprising if you have only just got your postal vote.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/19/letting-drug-dealers-prison-go-spa-breaks-criminally-stupid/
>
> If you applied close to the deadline it might not be surprising if you have only just got your postal vote.
If it really happened, then why does not Dan Snow complain directly to the Electoral Commission?
Much more fun to tweet, and get Jolyon and Layla involved, I know -- but it begins to look like a stunt.
> Completely off topic, the Chrysler Building in New York sold for $800m on the eve of the financial crisis. It's just been sold again, a decade late, for...
>
> $150m
>
> https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/new-york-chrysler-building-sells-less-than-purchased-decade-ago
How does that compare with equivalents in London and other cities ?
Boris pretending to be a hard-Brexiteer.
Boris pretending to be a faithful husband.
Boris pretending to be a man of the people.
Boris pretending to be a serious politician.
....
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1130195252537520128?s=12&fbclid=IwAR1SJ3tqDRkS1DG8Z95aXtlNx6SpsUeuJDcZihUQGiqPAnQKt1ORCxf_P6s
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > Completely off topic, the Chrysler Building in New York sold for $800m on the eve of the financial crisis. It's just been sold again, a decade late, for...
> >
> > $150m
> >
> > https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/new-york-chrysler-building-sells-less-than-purchased-decade-ago
>
> How does that compare with equivalents in London and other cities ?
Gordon Brown wasn't involved was he?
More remainer fake news. She should at least have doctored it into Roubles or something...
> Oh dear Nigel appears to be breaking electoral law again:
>
> https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1130195252537520128?s=12&fbclid=IwAR1SJ3tqDRkS1DG8Z95aXtlNx6SpsUeuJDcZihUQGiqPAnQKt1ORCxf_P6s
LOL!
Desperate, desperate, desperate...
> Oh dear Nigel appears to be breaking electoral law again:
>
> https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1130195252537520128?s=12&fbclid=IwAR1SJ3tqDRkS1DG8Z95aXtlNx6SpsUeuJDcZihUQGiqPAnQKt1ORCxf_P6s
She's quite literally insane. You can donate as long as you are on the electoral register. It doesn't matter where you are living at the time.