It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much.
I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly.
Lab not quite wiped out in Scotland on that. Just.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much. > > I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly.
A poll with two pairs of parties on the same vote shares is the perfect anti-FPTP advert!
Schmidt is 100% wrong on the vision thing. All the truly great leaders had a vision - and one that others did not believe was achievable until the great leader persuaded them it was.
Schmidt was criticising those who had a vision without any idea of how to get there. That’s my point. We need to have leaders who are prepared to do the hard yards in thinking about how to get from “A” to “B”.
All we have now are politicians shouting “I want” like a lot of toddlers, crying when they don’t get it and blaming others.
None of them are doing - or showing any signs of doing - any work at all on the “how”.
It does not matter whether the PM is Johnson, Farage, Leadsom (don’t rate her) or Mr Magoo. Unless they do that work, they will fail. The humiliation will likely be all the greater for the ultra-Brexiteers, which is possibly the only reason for putting them in charge of the process, were it not for the fact that we are the ones who will have to endure the consequences.
> @nico67 said: > I’m actually more confused today by Labours Brexit policy than I was yesterday and this is coming from someone who as many are here are political junkies . > > Indeed the more Corbyn talks the worse it gets for Labour . He’s the best recruiting sergeant for the Lib Dems .
He does not seem interested in recruiting for Labour, it is about splitting the Tory vote and making them make bad decisions. It is working.
> @Cyclefree said: > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> @another_richard said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > > @brendan16 said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland" > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located. > > > > > > > > > > > > Problem is the city dwelling liberals are all concentrated in their bubble and think everyone else thinks like them as they don’t engage outside their bubble and frankly sneer and look down on their supposed ‘inferiors’. Stupid, poorly educated, didn’t know what they were voting for and of course the final tactic when all else fails ‘racist’ > > > > > > > > > > > > Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite. > > > > > > > > > > I wonder how much resentment fuels that attitude. > > > > > > > > > > It must be hard for someone from a middle class background who has been to a top university to be massively in debt and renting a room in Walthamstow to know that factory workers in Mansfield own their homes. > > > > > > > > So move to Mansfield..... > > > > > > That would mean admitting they failed in London and accepting they weren't as talented as they thought they were. > > > > > > Many would rather wallow in resentment and look for others to blame. > > > > Do talented people live in London? The less talented elsewhere? > > I'd suggest the overly educated and ambitious do so while the more practical and realistic don't. > > London might be a good place for the highly talented but its a hard place for those who aren't and especially those who aren't as good as they think they are.
London is fine if you are a corporate or commercial lawyer, investment banker or work for a hedge fund or Apple or Google, for everyone else who is not so highly paid with the cost of living in the capital you are better off living elsewhere
> @Cyclefree said: > In my opinion "lepidopterist" is not a particularly unusual word, but Nabokov, who was such a one, was certainly an unusual author. > > True. But it’s not a particularly every day word and was the most elegantly complimentary one I could think of for my metaphor. > > If we’re going to be criticised for our literary style ..... aieeeee!
Apologies for my strange brain.Thank you for your fine threads. Please continue.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. D, tempted to make a sarky comment about it being about as accurate as Snow's answer to his daughter about fighter pilots...
Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
> In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
>
>
>
> On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
>
> It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
>
> If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
“Real, substantive quality”.
Clearly you have not read the header.
If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
> @Cyclefree said: > “Real, substantive quality”. > > Clearly you have not read the header. > > If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
----------------------------- Amazingly, my joke post right at the start of the thread that the only thing that made a good leader was belief in BREXIT has now been made unironically!
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal >
The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > “Real, substantive quality”. > > Clearly you have not read the header. > > If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
Like it or not I am afraid 'belief' is what the majority of the country now has, whether for Remain and revoke Article 50 or hard Brexit, if the Tories continue to stay in the middle they will get run over by the Brexit Party, even if that means going for No Deal if the WA fails again.
In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal >
Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
That's not a serious prospect. All but a bare handful of people think that a referendum results in remaining, she would not try to slip a referendum in even now because it would not create a legacy at all.
> @Cyclefree said: > Schmidt is 100% wrong on the vision thing. All the truly great leaders had a vision - and one that others did not believe was achievable until the great leader persuaded them it was. > > Schmidt was criticising those who had a vision without any idea of how to get there. That’s my point. We need to have leaders who are prepared to do the hard yards in thinking about how to get from “A” to “B”. > > All we have now are politicians shouting “I want” like a lot of toddlers, crying when they don’t get it and blaming others. > > None of them are doing - or showing any signs of doing - any work at all on the “how”. > > It does not matter whether the PM is Johnson, Farage, Leadsom (don’t rate her) or Mr Magoo. Unless they do that work, they will fail. The humiliation will likely be all the greater for the ultra-Brexiteers, which is possibly the only reason for putting them in charge of the process, were it not for the fact that we are the ones who will have to endure the consequences.
Not surprisingly, I agree.
Great leaders don't just have the BHAG with a wow! factor which they can paint in words in vivid emotive detail. In addition, they show people how they can get there, give the people belief that they can achieve it (even if it is more than they thought was possible), AND convince them that the goal is worth the effort and sacrifice. And they are honest about hard it will be and how many setbacks there will be along the way. This is what it takes to be a truly inspirational leader.
To pull it off more than once, you then have to deliver. Great leaders break the journey down into milestones that are celebrated, and progress is charted visibly so that people don't get disheartened in the less glamorous, hard-slog phases. Where possible, they enable everyone involved to understand how their individual effort will contribute to the overall big goal.
> @RobD said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > CUK rally just finished. Will type up a full report later, although there was nothing as embarrassing as being asked to look in my hands. Heidi was clear that they're becoming the Revoke party though, so there is at least some difference from the LDs > > > > It's faintly hilarious that CUK have at least identified a point of differentiation from the other parties... and completely flunked its announcement. > > > > A longwinded statement from Chuka on Marr, a half-arsed press release and a statement at a rally in Cambridge. I'm not expecting that to move the needle. > > Didn't Umunna himself say the referendum must be respected? He's simply a hypocrite now.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal >
Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that.
The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left. And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit.
If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk.
But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory.
Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
> @noneoftheabove said: > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
-------------------- Precisely. The only answer people have is that when frustrated again Boris, or whoever, will go for a GE< but that might also just disappoint and frustrate, making all this anxiety of Brexit credentials from the leadership candidates pointless displacement - it is not in their gift to provide what they will promise.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @nico67 said: > > I’m actually more confused today by Labours Brexit policy than I was yesterday and this is coming from someone who as many are here are political junkies . > > > > Indeed the more Corbyn talks the worse it gets for Labour . He’s the best recruiting sergeant for the Lib Dems . > > He does not seem interested in recruiting for Labour, it is about splitting the Tory vote and making them make bad decisions. It is working.
> In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
------------- That's not the point of complaint. The problem is you seem to think they only thing they need is belief, as if belief on its own does anything. Shouting Brexit does not achieve Brexit. A GE on a no deal platform might, if the public back it, but just believing they will because...because, is not serious politics.
The Tory leadership election will be full of nonsense promises outside their control.
Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > “Real, substantive quality”. > > Clearly you have not read the header. > > If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
Exactly . Belief is not a plan . Good leaders develop a plan or policy and try and sell that . Wishing something to happen because you believe in it with no way of delivering it ends in failure .
> @nunuone said: > > @RobD said: > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376 > > > > > > > > ... > > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer? > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > Desperate stuff.
I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
Indian exit polls suggest PM Modi's Hindu Nationalist BJP has won but some disagreement over whether it has won a majority or not. Full results are not expected until the end of next week
> @nunuone said: > > @RobD said: > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376 > > > > > > > > ... > > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer? > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > Desperate stuff.
If this is genuine, then could be a joker at the local council or perhaps the 3rd party printing company. I don't know all the ins and outs of how councils sort out postal ballots, but found this online:
Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @RobD said: > > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376 > > > > > > > > > > > > ... > > > > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer? > > > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > > > Desperate stuff. > > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> @anothernick said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday?
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
> @RobD said: > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires. > > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots]. > > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields. > > A very cushy job, relatively speaking
Anecdote caveats of course but neither of my lifelong tory voting parents are voting for them this time. Dad previously flirted with UKIP but this time is all for Brexit, Mum is either going Lib Dem or abstaining (she was previously a remained reluctantly supporting the deal). Now they still both hate Corbyn so it may be enough at a general election, but never seen them so disillusioned (and of course for different reasons)
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that. > > The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left. > And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit. > > If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk. > > But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory. > > Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
Excellent post . The no dealer politicians seem to think the public will stick by them because they enacted what a growing number of Leavers wanted . Ignoring the fact that the Leavers who apparently want no deal won’t take responsibility for that , they’ll blame whoever is in charge who went with no deal if turns into an economic calamity .
Even bubbles the chimp could beat the Tories if no deal turns into a disaster. In that case Corbyn still might get the keys to no 10 . The only policy they have been clear on is they are totally against no deal .
> @RobD said: > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires. > > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots]. > > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields. > > A very cushy job, relatively speaking
That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that. > > The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left. > And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit. > > If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk. > > But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory. > > Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs).
However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain.
Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
Mr Dancer, lady pilots did fly Spitfires on transfers between factories and airfields, and airfield to airfield. They were called the Air Transport Auxilliary:
> @IanB2 said: > > @RobD said: > > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires. > > > > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots]. > > > > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields. > > > > A very cushy job, relatively speaking > > That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
Shame on me for making a light-hearted comment. I thought they were primarily built in the UK?
Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
There were female pilots flew planes from USA to UK via Prestwick airport. Not involved as fighter pilots but certainly flew the planes.
> @HYUFD said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party? > > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU. > > > And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday?
The national interest is to recognise that there are deep divisions, largely created by the Tories, and these divisions need to be tackled. Going hell for leather for no deal will deepen division and ultimately lead to the break up of the UK. The Tories need a leader who will tell them some hard truths, not merely pander to their prejudices.
Someone who might say, for example, that they have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. Hard truths like that.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere > > ------------- > That's not the point of complaint. The problem is you seem to think they only thing they need is belief, as if belief on its own does anything. Shouting Brexit does not achieve Brexit. A GE on a no deal platform might, if the public back it, but just believing they will because...because, is not serious politics. > > The Tory leadership election will be full of nonsense promises outside their control. You have to have belief in Brexit to deliver it, Deal or No Deal, May does not, hence we are still in the EU.
Even if the WA passes you also need belief in a free trading UK for the future relationship, again it seems May does not. She was there for the technical details of the Brexit negotiations but after next month's WA vote the next leader has to be someone with a belief in Brexit who backed Leave not another Remainer
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
>
> >
>
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
>
> >
>
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
>
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
>
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> “Real, substantive quality”.
>
> Clearly you have not read the header.
>
> If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
Like it or not I am afraid 'belief' is what the majority of the country now has, whether for Remain and revoke Article 50 or hard Brexit, if the Tories continue to stay in the middle they will get run over by the Brexit Party, even if that means going for No Deal if the WA fails again.
In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
Oh, for the love of God, don’t be such a numpty. Thatcher, Attlee and Churchill had plans and good teams. That’s why they succeeded.
But go ahead: it’ll be fun - in a hiding behind the sofa sort of way - watching Brexit being enacted on the basis of intense belief and lots of Hail Mary’s from La Widdecombe.
Perhaps if they believe really hard and clap their hands, they’ll get some fairies as well to spread some magic.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
> Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
The discourse on this, mostly, excellent forum is not aided by loose comments like this. (Loose rather than trolling). We don't 'know' anything of the sort. I don't even believe it to be true.
If you are agreeable to this, let's strip away Labour and Cons as no one knows what they stand for, including themselves.
So that leaves:
LEAVE: Brexit Party + UKIP
vs
REMAIN: Liberal Democrat + Green + SNP + PC. Oh and Chukas fading lot.
I confidently predict those Remain votes will beat the Leave votes.
> @Quincel said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much. > > > > I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly. > > A poll with two pairs of parties on the same vote shares is the perfect anti-FPTP advert!
Yep. And if you scaled that up to Lab and Con still level, but on 40% each, a totally different Party would be forming the government. Two utterly divergent futures for the Nation decided by whether it was a six goal thriller or a no score draw. Makes sense, eh?
> @nico67 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that. > > > > The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left. > > And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit. > > > > If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk. > > > > But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory. > > > > Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again? > > Excellent post . > > Even bubbles the chimp could beat the Tories if no deal turns into a disaster. In that case Corbyn still might get the keys to no 10 . The only policy they have been clear on is they are totally against no deal .
Yet again completely and utterly misses the point.
We only get to No Deal if a Tory leader wins a general election majority on a No Deal platform given the current Commons will always block No Deal and demand extension or would likely even revoke if Macron vetoes further extension, to win that general election Corbyn would have to have been defeated so what No Deal turns into in terms of helping Corbyn would be irrelevant as Corbyn would be no more
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
As usual you are talking nonsense by looking just at the aspect of the issue that suits you.
Belief isn’t the missing ingredient. May clearly has tons of belief in her deal. What is needed is someone with the political and persuasive skills to craft the necessary compromise and sell it to sufficient parties including the EU such that it will carry.
Belief in no deal is a dead end, because it will destroy the government’s majority and push parliament into revoking to stop it becoming a reality.
> @anothernick said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @anothernick said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party? > > > > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU. > > > > > > And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday? > > The national interest is to recognise that there are deep divisions, largely created by the Tories, and these divisions need to be tackled. Going hell for leather for no deal will deepen division and ultimately lead to the break up of the UK. The Tories need a leader who will tell them some hard truths, not merely pander to their prejudices. > > Someone who might say, for example, that they have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. Hard truths like that.
A leader left liberal diehard Remainers like you will find acceptable you mean and will tell the Tories 'hard truths' like cancel Brexit? The Commons has had ample opportunity to vote for a Deal it has refused, if it does so again next month the next Tory Leader should prepare for No Deal.
As Scott Morrison, Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Farage etc show the right is most successful at the moment not by pandering to left liberals like you but by actually standing up for what its supporters want. You may not like that, tough!
> > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
> >
> > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
> >
> > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
> >
> > A very cushy job, relatively speaking
>
> That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
Shame on me for making a light-hearted comment. I thought they were primarily built in the UK?
You are a Tory Rob so we expect that type of stuff.
> > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > >
> > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > >
> > >
> > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> >
> > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it.
Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%.
Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required.
> @HYUFD said: > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it.
> > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > >
> > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > >
> > >
> > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> >
> > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
> @RobD said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @RobD said: > > > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires. > > > > > > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots]. > > > > > > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields. > > > > > > A very cushy job, relatively speaking > > > > That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly. > > Shame on me for making a light-hearted comment. I thought they were primarily built in the UK?
I believe the death rate was 15 out of 168. That is less than faced the men, but, still, sitting in an air conditioned room in Dubai calling this “very cushy” is a poor show. Next you’ll be telling us you want a no deal Brexit.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit. > > There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
Take your cue from Boris who, very recently, has started talking about his desire to avoid leaving with no deal. If he is worried about it, it would be bad news indeed.
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU. > > Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it.
HY must have been abroad for the past three years, if he thinks the 2016 vote has been ignored.
Or, more accurately, he must have returned to visit his home planet, since anyone who has been abroad would know that our currency is worth a lot less and our international reputation is already trashed.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
That's right.
However, given what a poor job the DfIT has done in the last 30-odd months, and the desire for us to leave NOW, the choice is increasingly between.
"We don't need no stinking extension, let's just get out NOW."
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > Con 269 > Lab 263 > SNP 56 > Lib Dem 31 > Brexit 8 > PC 4 > Greens 1 > Norn Iron 18
With only six or so percentage point between first and fourth, I think it is highly likely the results would be rather more proportional than Electoral Calculus predicts.
Labour is lucky that it's vote is so concentrated in 200-odd seats, and would likely outperform. The Brexit Party (based on UKIP 2015), would likely mildly underperform because of how uniformly its vote is distributed.
Still, on the Flavible vote shares, I would be staggered if any of LD/LAB/Con/Brx got less than 30 seats, and I think the actual numbers for each would be north of 50.
> @HYUFD said: > Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs). > > > However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain. >
Yet it was the LDs who gained at the start of this month, while Brx may do barely better than UKIP next week.
As Scott Morrison, Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Farage etc show the right is most successful at the moment not by pandering to left liberals like you but by actually standing up for what its supporters want. You may not like that, tough!
We will also see later this week what happens to Modi in India as the final phase of voting closes.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
If the LDs were only six points (nationally) behind both the Cons and the Labs, then that would be equivalent (in the old world) to them getting about 30%, and the other two getting 36%.
Essentially, in a world where four parties were between 24% and 18% in shares, then the efficiency of your vote would depend on its concentration. You wouldn't want it too concentrated (because then you'd be getting seats with 80% of the vote, and would max out at 20-odd percent of the seats), and you wouldn't want it too diffuse, because then you'd likely miss out almost everywhere.
If the Flavible numbers were right (and I very much doubt we'll get to test them in the real world), then I would expect something like:
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > > > Con 269 > > Lab 263 > > SNP 56 > > Lib Dem 31 > > Brexit 8 > > PC 4 > > Greens 1 > > Norn Iron 18 > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles.
Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much. > > If the LDs were only six points (nationally) behind both the Cons and the Labs, then that would be equivalent (in the old world) to them getting about 30%, and the other two getting 36%. > > Essentially, in a world where four parties were between 24% and 18% in shares, then the efficiency of your vote would depend on its concentration. You wouldn't want it too concentrated (because then you'd be getting seats with 80% of the vote, and would max out at 20-odd percent of the seats), and you wouldn't want it too diffuse, because then you'd likely miss out almost everywhere. > > If the Flavible numbers were right (and I very much doubt we'll get to test them in the real world), then I would expect something like: > > Lab 230 > Con 170 > LD 100 > Brx 80 >
Mebbes, but I don't know how one can be sure the LDs would hit the sweet spot between diffusion & concentration. Also the Flavible numbers predict the LDs & BRX, both on 18%, getting 97 & 3 seats respectively. That seems too much of a chasm.
> @El_Capitano said: > I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles. > > Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
Then I am happy to tell you that I am usually wrong, but I don't let it stop me from making vehement pronouncements, for what it is worth. I thought Ed M would win, I thought May would win (though not my as much as predicted). I did call leaving right though.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @nunuone said: > > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > > The discourse on this, mostly, excellent forum is not aided by loose comments like this. (Loose rather than trolling). We don't 'know' anything of the sort. I don't even believe it to be true. > > If you are agreeable to this, let's strip away Labour and Cons as no one knows what they stand for, including themselves. > > So that leaves: > > LEAVE: Brexit Party + UKIP > > vs > > REMAIN: Liberal Democrat + Green + SNP + PC. Oh and Chukas fading lot. > > I confidently predict those Remain votes will beat the Leave votes. > > Fancy a £10 wager on it? >
That proposal would be a good one for PB to run as a contest.
> @logical_song said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > > > > > Con 269 > > > Lab 263 > > > SNP 56 > > > Lib Dem 31 > > > Brexit 8 > > > PC 4 > > > Greens 1 > > > Norn Iron 18 > > > > > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much. > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit.
> @logical_song said: > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
Indeed.
I'm no expert but I'd have said there's considerably more scope for the modellers (and model/forecast error) in a FPTP world where there's theoretically 4 main parties on approximately similar vote shares than the current 2-and-a-bit main parties.
I am still not convinced exactly how much we can read into all the different seat forecasts at present. How many of them are simply extrapolations from current models that would not work nearly so effectively in this new paradigm that may be coming. I'm sure some of them are thinking about this but are they all?
> @blueblue said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > > > > > > > Con 269 > > > > Lab 263 > > > > SNP 56 > > > > Lib Dem 31 > > > > Brexit 8 > > > > PC 4 > > > > Greens 1 > > > > Norn Iron 18 > > > > > > > > > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much. > > > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery. > > Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit. > > I could live with it, I guess!
--------------- We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis!
> @kle4 said: > > @blueblue said: > > > @logical_song said: > > > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > > > > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > > > > > > > > > Con 269 > > > > > Lab 263 > > > > > SNP 56 > > > > > Lib Dem 31 > > > > > Brexit 8 > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > Greens 1 > > > > > Norn Iron 18 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much. > > > > > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery. > > > > Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit. > > > > I could live with it, I guess! > > --------------- > We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis!
Good! Give me another five years of Parliament doing nothing and the craziest ideas of both main parties completely neutered - it's better than the alternative!
> @blueblue said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @blueblue said: > > > > @logical_song said: > > > > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20 > > > > > > > > > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers: > > > > > > > > > > > > Con 269 > > > > > > Lab 263 > > > > > > SNP 56 > > > > > > Lib Dem 31 > > > > > > Brexit 8 > > > > > > PC 4 > > > > > > Greens 1 > > > > > > Norn Iron 18 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much. > > > > > > > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery. > > > > > > Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit. > > > > > > I could live with it, I guess! > > > > --------------- > > We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis! > > Good! Give me another five years of Parliament doing nothing and the craziest ideas of both main parties completely neutered - it's better than the alternative!
-------------------- That might be so generally, but until we have a clear idea if we are remaining in the EU, breaking with it completely, or something else, there are many problems that might occur from general paralysis.
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > Yes it will deliver it as > > As usual you are talking nonsense by looking just at the aspect of the issue that suits you. > > Belief isn’t the missing ingredient. May clearly has tons of belief in her deal. What is needed is someone with the political and persuasive skills to craft the necessary compromise and sell it to sufficient parties including the EU such that it will carry. > > Belief in no deal is a dead end, because it will destroy the government’s majority and push parliament into revoking to stop it becoming a reality.
And if Parliament revoked Brexit without consulting the voters the backlash from those voters would be massive
> @Cyclefree said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > > > > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something? > > > > Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it > > Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @RobD said: > > > twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376 > > > > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer? > > > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > > > Desperate stuff. > > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal. > > > > > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality. > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so. > > > > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer. > > > > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal > > > > > > > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers. > > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month > > The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it. > > Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%. > > Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required. There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension
> @rpjs said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @nunuone said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376 > > > > > > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer? > > > > > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place. > > > > > > Desperate stuff. > > > > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause). > > They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
Comments
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
...
> Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much.
I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly.
Lab not quite wiped out in Scotland on that. Just.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
>
> It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much.
>
> I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly.
A poll with two pairs of parties on the same vote shares is the perfect anti-FPTP advert!
All we have now are politicians shouting “I want” like a lot of toddlers, crying when they don’t get it and blaming others.
None of them are doing - or showing any signs of doing - any work at all on the “how”.
It does not matter whether the PM is Johnson, Farage, Leadsom (don’t rate her) or Mr Magoo. Unless they do that work, they will fail. The humiliation will likely be all the greater for the ultra-Brexiteers, which is possibly the only reason for putting them in charge of the process, were it not for the fact that we are the ones who will have to endure the consequences.
Is this genuine?
> I’m actually more confused today by Labours Brexit policy than I was yesterday and this is coming from someone who as many are here are political junkies .
>
> Indeed the more Corbyn talks the worse it gets for Labour . He’s the best recruiting sergeant for the Lib Dems .
He does not seem interested in recruiting for Labour, it is about splitting the Tory vote and making them make bad decisions. It is working.
> In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
>
>
>
> On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
>
> It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
>
> If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
If we’re going to be criticised for our literary style ..... aieeeee!
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Problem is the city dwelling liberals are all concentrated in their bubble and think everyone else thinks like them as they don’t engage outside their bubble and frankly sneer and look down on their supposed ‘inferiors’. Stupid, poorly educated, didn’t know what they were voting for and of course the final tactic when all else fails ‘racist’
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite.
> > > > >
> > > > > I wonder how much resentment fuels that attitude.
> > > > >
> > > > > It must be hard for someone from a middle class background who has been to a top university to be massively in debt and renting a room in Walthamstow to know that factory workers in Mansfield own their homes.
> > > >
> > > > So move to Mansfield.....
> > >
> > > That would mean admitting they failed in London and accepting they weren't as talented as they thought they were.
> > >
> > > Many would rather wallow in resentment and look for others to blame.
> >
> > Do talented people live in London? The less talented elsewhere?
>
> I'd suggest the overly educated and ambitious do so while the more practical and realistic don't.
>
> London might be a good place for the highly talented but its a hard place for those who aren't and especially those who aren't as good as they think they are.
London is fine if you are a corporate or commercial lawyer, investment banker or work for a hedge fund or Apple or Google, for everyone else who is not so highly paid with the cost of living in the capital you are better off living elsewhere
> In my opinion "lepidopterist" is not a particularly unusual word, but Nabokov, who was such a one, was certainly an unusual author.
>
> True. But it’s not a particularly every day word and was the most elegantly complimentary one I could think of for my metaphor.
>
> If we’re going to be criticised for our literary style ..... aieeeee!
Apologies for my strange brain.Thank you for your fine threads. Please continue.
> Mr. D, tempted to make a sarky comment about it being about as accurate as Snow's answer to his daughter about fighter pilots...
You will have to enlighten me
[As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
Clearly you have not read the header.
If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
> “Real, substantive quality”.
>
> Clearly you have not read the header.
>
> If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
-----------------------------
Amazingly, my joke post right at the start of the thread that the only thing that made a good leader was belief in BREXIT has now been made unironically!
Says it all really.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> >
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> >
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
The popcorn supply chain would break under the strain.
what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it
Not Boris then.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
>
> >
>
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
>
> >
>
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
>
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
>
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> “Real, substantive quality”.
>
> Clearly you have not read the header.
>
> If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
Like it or not I am afraid 'belief' is what the majority of the country now has, whether for Remain and revoke Article 50 or hard Brexit, if the Tories continue to stay in the middle they will get run over by the Brexit Party, even if that means going for No Deal if the WA fails again.
In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> >
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> >
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1130149335180689408
>
> The popcorn supply chain would break under the strain.
That's not a serious prospect. All but a bare handful of people think that a referendum results in remaining, she would not try to slip a referendum in even now because it would not create a legacy at all.
> Schmidt is 100% wrong on the vision thing. All the truly great leaders had a vision - and one that others did not believe was achievable until the great leader persuaded them it was.
>
> Schmidt was criticising those who had a vision without any idea of how to get there. That’s my point. We need to have leaders who are prepared to do the hard yards in thinking about how to get from “A” to “B”.
>
> All we have now are politicians shouting “I want” like a lot of toddlers, crying when they don’t get it and blaming others.
>
> None of them are doing - or showing any signs of doing - any work at all on the “how”.
>
> It does not matter whether the PM is Johnson, Farage, Leadsom (don’t rate her) or Mr Magoo. Unless they do that work, they will fail. The humiliation will likely be all the greater for the ultra-Brexiteers, which is possibly the only reason for putting them in charge of the process, were it not for the fact that we are the ones who will have to endure the consequences.
Not surprisingly, I agree.
Great leaders don't just have the BHAG with a wow! factor which they can paint in words in vivid emotive detail. In addition, they show people how they can get there, give the people belief that they can achieve it (even if it is more than they thought was possible), AND convince them that the goal is worth the effort and sacrifice. And they are honest about hard it will be and how many setbacks there will be along the way. This is what it takes to be a truly inspirational leader.
To pull it off more than once, you then have to deliver. Great leaders break the journey down into milestones that are celebrated, and progress is charted visibly so that people don't get disheartened in the less glamorous, hard-slog phases. Where possible, they enable everyone involved to understand how their individual effort will contribute to the overall big goal.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > CUK rally just finished. Will type up a full report later, although there was nothing as embarrassing as being asked to look in my hands. Heidi was clear that they're becoming the Revoke party though, so there is at least some difference from the LDs
> >
> > It's faintly hilarious that CUK have at least identified a point of differentiation from the other parties... and completely flunked its announcement.
> >
> > A longwinded statement from Chuka on Marr, a half-arsed press release and a statement at a rally in Cambridge. I'm not expecting that to move the needle.
>
> Didn't Umunna himself say the referendum must be respected? He's simply a hypocrite now.
Like Don Giovanni, he meant it when he said it.
> https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
>
>
>
> ...
>
> Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
Did the postman have a big fur hat and a Russian accent ?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> >
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> >
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that.
The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left.
And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit.
If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk.
But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory.
Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
> The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
--------------------
Precisely. The only answer people have is that when frustrated again Boris, or whoever, will go for a GE< but that might also just disappoint and frustrate, making all this anxiety of Brexit credentials from the leadership candidates pointless displacement - it is not in their gift to provide what they will promise.
> https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
>
>
>
> ...
>
> Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
Desperate stuff.
> > @nico67 said:
> > I’m actually more confused today by Labours Brexit policy than I was yesterday and this is coming from someone who as many are here are political junkies .
> >
> > Indeed the more Corbyn talks the worse it gets for Labour . He’s the best recruiting sergeant for the Lib Dems .
>
> He does not seem interested in recruiting for Labour, it is about splitting the Tory vote and making them make bad decisions. It is working.
Labours Brexit policy?
Here's Corbyn earlier today
https://order-order.com/2019/05/19/corbyn-asked-seven-times-brexit-policy/
> In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
-------------
That's not the point of complaint. The problem is you seem to think they only thing they need is belief, as if belief on its own does anything. Shouting Brexit does not achieve Brexit. A GE on a no deal platform might, if the public back it, but just believing they will because...because, is not serious politics.
The Tory leadership election will be full of nonsense promises outside their control.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
>
> >
>
> > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
>
> >
>
> > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
>
>
>
> 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
>
>
> The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> “Real, substantive quality”.
>
> Clearly you have not read the header.
>
> If you think “belief” is what makes a leader, the Moonies or another similar cult is perhaps more your thing.
Exactly . Belief is not a plan . Good leaders develop a plan or policy and try and sell that . Wishing something to happen because you believe in it with no way of delivering it ends in failure .
> > @RobD said:
> > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> >
> >
> >
> > ...
> >
> > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
>
> Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
>
> Desperate stuff.
I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48328259
> > @RobD said:
> > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> >
> >
> >
> > ...
> >
> > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
>
> Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
>
> Desperate stuff.
If this is genuine, then could be a joker at the local council or perhaps the 3rd party printing company. I don't know all the ins and outs of how councils sort out postal ballots, but found this online:
https://www.printimagenetwork.co.uk/council/election-printing/
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ...
> > >
> > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
> >
> > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
> >
> > Desperate stuff.
>
> I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
True.
But the headlines will be all about Nigel.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > >
> > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > >
> > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> >
> > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> >
> > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> >
>
> The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > >
> > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > >
> > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> >
> > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> >
> > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> >
>
> Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday?
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > >
> > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > >
> > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > >
> > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > >
> > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > >
> >
> > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
>
> The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
> Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
>
> [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
>
> There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
>
> A very cushy job, relatively speaking
Not relative to a computer chair in 2019 though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > >
> > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > >
> > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> >
> > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> >
> > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> >
>
> Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that.
>
> The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left.
> And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit.
>
> If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk.
>
> But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory.
>
> Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
Excellent post . The no dealer politicians seem to think the public will stick by them because they enacted what a growing number of Leavers wanted . Ignoring the fact that the Leavers who apparently want no deal won’t take responsibility for that , they’ll blame whoever is in charge who went with no deal if turns into an economic calamity .
Even bubbles the chimp could beat the Tories if no deal turns into a disaster. In that case Corbyn still might get the keys to no 10 . The only policy they have been clear on is they are totally against no deal .
> Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
>
> [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
>
> There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
>
> A very cushy job, relatively speaking
That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > >
> > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > >
> > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> >
> > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> >
> > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> >
>
> Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that.
>
> The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left.
> And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit.
>
> If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk.
>
> But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory.
>
> Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs).
However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain.
http://iloveww2warbirds.com/women-spitfire-pilots/
As for the Soviets, thousands of women flew combat missions on the Eastern Front, the highest scoring female ace being Lily Litvyak:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lydia_Litvyak
> > @RobD said:
> > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
> >
> > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
> >
> > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
> >
> > A very cushy job, relatively speaking
>
> That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
Shame on me for making a light-hearted comment. I thought they were primarily built in the UK?
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > >
> > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > >
> > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > >
> > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > >
> > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > >
> >
> > Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
>
> The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
>
>
> And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday?
The national interest is to recognise that there are deep divisions, largely created by the Tories, and these divisions need to be tackled. Going hell for leather for no deal will deepen division and ultimately lead to the break up of the UK. The Tories need a leader who will tell them some hard truths, not merely pander to their prejudices.
Someone who might say, for example, that they have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. Hard truths like that.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > In any case Thatcher had belief, Attlee had belief, Churchill had belief, without at least some belief you get nowhere
>
> -------------
> That's not the point of complaint. The problem is you seem to think they only thing they need is belief, as if belief on its own does anything. Shouting Brexit does not achieve Brexit. A GE on a no deal platform might, if the public back it, but just believing they will because...because, is not serious politics.
>
> The Tory leadership election will be full of nonsense promises outside their control.
You have to have belief in Brexit to deliver it, Deal or No Deal, May does not, hence we are still in the EU.
Even if the WA passes you also need belief in a free trading UK for the future relationship, again it seems May does not. She was there for the technical details of the Brexit negotiations but after next month's WA vote the next leader has to be someone with a belief in Brexit who backed Leave not another Remainer
But go ahead: it’ll be fun - in a hiding behind the sofa sort of way - watching Brexit being enacted on the basis of intense belief and lots of Hail Mary’s from La Widdecombe.
Perhaps if they believe really hard and clap their hands, they’ll get some fairies as well to spread some magic.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > >
> > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > >
> > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > >
> > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > >
> > >
> > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> >
> > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
> Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
The discourse on this, mostly, excellent forum is not aided by loose comments like this. (Loose rather than trolling). We don't 'know' anything of the sort. I don't even believe it to be true.
If you are agreeable to this, let's strip away Labour and Cons as no one knows what they stand for, including themselves.
So that leaves:
LEAVE: Brexit Party + UKIP
vs
REMAIN: Liberal Democrat + Green + SNP + PC. Oh and Chukas fading lot.
I confidently predict those Remain votes will beat the Leave votes.
Fancy a £10 wager on it?
> Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594
>
>
>
> Fantasy land right enough
Survey period was actually 8th - 17th May.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> >
> > It's kind of hilarious that Labour could gain seats even as they reduce in vote share so much.
> >
> > I remember in 2010 the hopes of the LDs at breaking through - a few more percent and the number of seats that would become winnable can increase very rapidly.
>
> A poll with two pairs of parties on the same vote shares is the perfect anti-FPTP advert!
Yep. And if you scaled that up to Lab and Con still level, but on 40% each, a totally different Party would be forming the government.
Two utterly divergent futures for the Nation decided by whether it was a six goal thriller or a no score draw.
Makes sense, eh?
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > >
> > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > >
> > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > >
> > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > >
> > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > >
> >
> > Yeah, but it's a bit more complex than that.
> >
> > The Tories are leaking votes to the Brexit Party, because we haven't left.
> > And they're leaking votes to the LibDems, because it looks like they might now back No Deal Brexit.
> >
> > If they go down the No Deal route, and there's no recession, they will probably survive with only a smattering of losses to the LDs. Only the most Remain-y of seats, like Richmond Park, would be at risk.
> >
> > But if they go No Deal, and there is a serious recession, then those who opposed No Deal Brexit and who lose their homes or their jobs will never forgive them. In London and the prosperous Remainy towns of South East England, the LDs will be returned to their former glory.
> >
> > Which is a problem for the Conservative Party. Because if the LDs take 50-odd seats at their expense, how on earth are they to get a majority again?
>
> Excellent post .
>
> Even bubbles the chimp could beat the Tories if no deal turns into a disaster. In that case Corbyn still might get the keys to no 10 . The only policy they have been clear on is they are totally against no deal .
Yet again completely and utterly misses the point.
We only get to No Deal if a Tory leader wins a general election majority on a No Deal platform given the current Commons will always block No Deal and demand extension or would likely even revoke if Macron vetoes further extension, to win that general election Corbyn would have to have been defeated so what No Deal turns into in terms of helping Corbyn would be irrelevant as Corbyn would be no more
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > > >
> > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> > >
> > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> >
> > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
>
> Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
As usual you are talking nonsense by looking just at the aspect of the issue that suits you.
Belief isn’t the missing ingredient. May clearly has tons of belief in her deal. What is needed is someone with the political and persuasive skills to craft the necessary compromise and sell it to sufficient parties including the EU such that it will carry.
Belief in no deal is a dead end, because it will destroy the government’s majority and push parliament into revoking to stop it becoming a reality.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @anothernick said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > >
> > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > >
> > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > >
> > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > >
> > >
> > > Why do you Tories see politics as entirely about serving the interests of the Tory Party? Do,you understand that the national interest is not the same as the interests of your party?
> >
> > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
> >
> >
> > And you wonder why the Brexit Party will trounce the other parties on Thursday?
>
> The national interest is to recognise that there are deep divisions, largely created by the Tories, and these divisions need to be tackled. Going hell for leather for no deal will deepen division and ultimately lead to the break up of the UK. The Tories need a leader who will tell them some hard truths, not merely pander to their prejudices.
>
> Someone who might say, for example, that they have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. Hard truths like that.
A leader left liberal diehard Remainers like you will find acceptable you mean and will tell the Tories 'hard truths' like cancel Brexit? The Commons has had ample opportunity to vote for a Deal it has refused, if it does so again next month the next Tory Leader should prepare for No Deal.
As Scott Morrison, Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Farage etc show the right is most successful at the moment not by pandering to left liberals like you but by actually standing up for what its supporters want. You may not like that, tough!
> Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
Con 269
Lab 263
SNP 56
Lib Dem 31
Brexit 8
PC 4
Greens 1
Norn Iron 18
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > >
> > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > >
> > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > >
> > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > >
> > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > >
> >
> > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
>
> The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it.
Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%.
Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required.
> The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > Mr. kle4, some time ago, but as I remember it, Dan Snow was going with his family round some WWII museum or other. His daughter, about 10 years old, asked why there weren't any female pilots, or a similar question. Snow made up some nonsense about there being female fighter pilots in WWII, flying Spitfires.
> > >
> > > [As I understand it, there were a small number of Soviet female fighter pilots, but very much the exception to the rule, and no British female pilots].
> > >
> > > There were female Spitfire pilots in WW2. They were used to ferry planes from the manufacturer to the airfields.
> > >
> > > A very cushy job, relatively speaking
> >
> > That shows a remarkable ignorance of these women’s bravery, flying single engined planes across the Atlantic (via Iceland) in all sorts of weather. They didn’t all survive, sadly.
>
> Shame on me for making a light-hearted comment. I thought they were primarily built in the UK?
I believe the death rate was 15 out of 168. That is less than faced the men, but, still, sitting in an air conditioned room in Dubai calling this “very cushy” is a poor show. Next you’ll be telling us you want a no deal Brexit.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
>
>
> > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> > > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
>
> > >
>
> > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> >
>
> > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
>
>
>
> Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
>
> Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
>
> There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
Take your cue from Boris who, very recently, has started talking about his desire to avoid leaving with no deal. If he is worried about it, it would be bad news indeed.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The 'national interest' presumably being in your case to completely ignore the 2016 Leave vote, revoke Brexit and stay in the EU.
>
> Why do people say such things? Few people are ignoring it. Fighting it, campaigning to have it reversed, confirmed, treating it as the seed of a wider revolution to be joined or countered. Worrying over it or celebrating, tacking left or right in response to it. All of these are legitimate responses that are in no way ignoring it.
HY must have been abroad for the past three years, if he thinks the 2016 vote has been ignored.
Or, more accurately, he must have returned to visit his home planet, since anyone who has been abroad would know that our currency is worth a lot less and our international reputation is already trashed.
> There seems to be a worrying blurring of the lines between 'No deal' and 'hard brexit/WTO brexit' or whatever you want to call it. I'm not blaming either side, as both seem to have started doing it, almost in the last few weeks it would appear. Nobody *wants* 'No deal' per se - what if the deal was that the EU gives us everything we want, plus free donuts on Friday? Nobody plans for there not to be a deal. But it is important to be prepared to leave without one if the need arises.
That's right.
However, given what a poor job the DfIT has done in the last 30-odd months, and the desire for us to leave NOW, the choice is increasingly between.
"We don't need no stinking extension, let's just get out NOW."
and
"See! This wasn't what we were promised. Revoke!"
> Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
>
> Con 269
> Lab 263
> SNP 56
> Lib Dem 31
> Brexit 8
> PC 4
> Greens 1
> Norn Iron 18
With only six or so percentage point between first and fourth, I think it is highly likely the results would be rather more proportional than Electoral Calculus predicts.
Labour is lucky that it's vote is so concentrated in 200-odd seats, and would likely outperform. The Brexit Party (based on UKIP 2015), would likely mildly underperform because of how uniformly its vote is distributed.
Still, on the Flavible vote shares, I would be staggered if any of LD/LAB/Con/Brx got less than 30 seats, and I think the actual numbers for each would be north of 50.
> Over 50% of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party on Thursday, barely any will vote LD bar Lord Heseltine. Even on your most apocalyptic scenario, losing 50 seats is hardly deadly, Labour will eventually muck up and the Tories will get back in again (though if the Tories beat Corbyn on a No Deal platform Labour may itself face a big threat from the LDs).
>
>
> However failing to deliver Brexit will be apocalyptic and see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories for good and probably take them over, exactly as happened in Canada in 1993 with the Brexit Party becoming the main party of the right in Britain.
>
Yet it was the LDs who gained at the start of this month, while Brx may do barely better than UKIP next week.
Funny old world.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
>
> Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
>
> Con 269
> Lab 263
> SNP 56
> Lib Dem 31
> Brexit 8
> PC 4
> Greens 1
> Norn Iron 18
31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
> 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
If the LDs were only six points (nationally) behind both the Cons and the Labs, then that would be equivalent (in the old world) to them getting about 30%, and the other two getting 36%.
Essentially, in a world where four parties were between 24% and 18% in shares, then the efficiency of your vote would depend on its concentration. You wouldn't want it too concentrated (because then you'd be getting seats with 80% of the vote, and would max out at 20-odd percent of the seats), and you wouldn't want it too diffuse, because then you'd likely miss out almost everywhere.
If the Flavible numbers were right (and I very much doubt we'll get to test them in the real world), then I would expect something like:
Lab 230
Con 170
LD 100
Brx 80
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1130155154471358465
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> >
> > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> >
> > Con 269
> > Lab 263
> > SNP 56
> > Lib Dem 31
> > Brexit 8
> > PC 4
> > Greens 1
> > Norn Iron 18
>
>
>
> 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
>
> If the LDs were only six points (nationally) behind both the Cons and the Labs, then that would be equivalent (in the old world) to them getting about 30%, and the other two getting 36%.
>
> Essentially, in a world where four parties were between 24% and 18% in shares, then the efficiency of your vote would depend on its concentration. You wouldn't want it too concentrated (because then you'd be getting seats with 80% of the vote, and would max out at 20-odd percent of the seats), and you wouldn't want it too diffuse, because then you'd likely miss out almost everywhere.
>
> If the Flavible numbers were right (and I very much doubt we'll get to test them in the real world), then I would expect something like:
>
> Lab 230
> Con 170
> LD 100
> Brx 80
>
Mebbes, but I don't know how one can be sure the LDs would hit the sweet spot between diffusion & concentration. Also the Flavible numbers predict the LDs & BRX, both on 18%, getting 97 & 3 seats respectively. That seems too much of a chasm.
> I sometimes think that the more vehement pronouncements on this board would be usefully tempered by people confessing to their betting and electoral records in their Vanilla profiles.
>
> Not that either of mine are particularly stellar, but "had £50 on EdM to win in 2015" and "failed to be elected to Little Goatworthy Parish Council last year" would be a helpful corrective to some of the more forcefully stated opinions on here.
Then I am happy to tell you that I am usually wrong, but I don't let it stop me from making vehement pronouncements, for what it is worth. I thought Ed M would win, I thought May would win (though not my as much as predicted). I did call leaving right though.
> > @nunuone said:
>
> > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
>
>
> The discourse on this, mostly, excellent forum is not aided by loose comments like this. (Loose rather than trolling). We don't 'know' anything of the sort. I don't even believe it to be true.
>
> If you are agreeable to this, let's strip away Labour and Cons as no one knows what they stand for, including themselves.
>
> So that leaves:
>
> LEAVE: Brexit Party + UKIP
>
> vs
>
> REMAIN: Liberal Democrat + Green + SNP + PC. Oh and Chukas fading lot.
>
> I confidently predict those Remain votes will beat the Leave votes.
>
> Fancy a £10 wager on it?
>
That proposal would be a good one for PB to run as a contest.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> > >
> > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> > >
> > > Con 269
> > > Lab 263
> > > SNP 56
> > > Lib Dem 31
> > > Brexit 8
> > > PC 4
> > > Greens 1
> > > Norn Iron 18
> >
> >
> >
> > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
>
> It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit.
I could live with it, I guess!
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> >
> > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> >
> > Con 269
> > Lab 263
> > SNP 56
> > Lib Dem 31
> > Brexit 8
> > PC 4
> > Greens 1
> > Norn Iron 18
>
>
>
> 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
Seems clear that any predictive seat model is going to struggle if we go down that route, identifying when they get crossover into massive seat gain.
> It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
Indeed.
I'm no expert but I'd have said there's considerably more scope for the modellers (and model/forecast error) in a FPTP world where there's theoretically 4 main parties on approximately similar vote shares than the current 2-and-a-bit main parties.
I am still not convinced exactly how much we can read into all the different seat forecasts at present. How many of them are simply extrapolations from current models that would not work nearly so effectively in this new paradigm that may be coming. I'm sure some of them are thinking about this but are they all?
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> > > >
> > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> > > >
> > > > Con 269
> > > > Lab 263
> > > > SNP 56
> > > > Lib Dem 31
> > > > Brexit 8
> > > > PC 4
> > > > Greens 1
> > > > Norn Iron 18
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
> >
> > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
>
> Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit.
>
> I could live with it, I guess!
---------------
We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis!
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1130149335180689408
>
> The popcorn supply chain would break under the strain.
It wouldn't happen because the moment she went down that path the 1922 would change the rules to allow Con to have another VONC in her.
> > @blueblue said:
> > > @logical_song said:
> > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> > > > >
> > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> > > > >
> > > > > Con 269
> > > > > Lab 263
> > > > > SNP 56
> > > > > Lib Dem 31
> > > > > Brexit 8
> > > > > PC 4
> > > > > Greens 1
> > > > > Norn Iron 18
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
> > >
> > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
> >
> > Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit.
> >
> > I could live with it, I guess!
>
> ---------------
> We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis!
Good! Give me another five years of Parliament doing nothing and the craziest ideas of both main parties completely neutered - it's better than the alternative!
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @blueblue said:
> > > > @logical_song said:
> > > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > Latest YouGov suggests only Labour plus LDs would have a majority
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1130116049540718594?s=20
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Electoral Calculus gives very different numbers:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Con 269
> > > > > > Lab 263
> > > > > > SNP 56
> > > > > > Lib Dem 31
> > > > > > Brexit 8
> > > > > > PC 4
> > > > > > Greens 1
> > > > > > Norn Iron 18
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > 31 seats on 18% for the LDs seems realistic, 97 seats, not so much.
> > > >
> > > > It's FPTP and with 4 parties within 6% of each other almost anything could happen. I would suspect that a new party would underperform due to even spread of votes, but how the 3 others would do is a lottery.
> > >
> > > Things have gotten to the stage where that Electoral Calculus result might not be the worst outcome for the country: Labour unable to go full Commie Manifesto, the Tories unable to go full diamond-hard Brexit.
> > >
> > > I could live with it, I guess!
> >
> > ---------------
> > We already have that, and all it has resulted in his parliamentary paralysis!
>
> Good! Give me another five years of Parliament doing nothing and the craziest ideas of both main parties completely neutered - it's better than the alternative!
--------------------
That might be so generally, but until we have a clear idea if we are remaining in the EU, breaking with it completely, or something else, there are many problems that might occur from general paralysis.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> > > >
> > > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
> > >
> > > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
> >
> > Yes it will deliver it as
>
> As usual you are talking nonsense by looking just at the aspect of the issue that suits you.
>
> Belief isn’t the missing ingredient. May clearly has tons of belief in her deal. What is needed is someone with the political and persuasive skills to craft the necessary compromise and sell it to sufficient parties including the EU such that it will carry.
>
> Belief in no deal is a dead end, because it will destroy the government’s majority and push parliament into revoking to stop it becoming a reality.
And if Parliament revoked Brexit without consulting the voters the backlash from those voters would be massive
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > > @Cyclefree said:
>
>
> > > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
>
> > > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
>
> > >
>
> > > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> >
>
> > That doesn't deliver it, it offers only a chance of delivering it at best, you just keep pretending that it will definitely work for some reason because you want to insist that believing in something will make it happen. Do you need a Yes Minister clip about Neville CHamberlain being keen on peace or something?
>
>
>
> Yes it will deliver it as once you have a majority for a manifesto commitment for No Deal all it takes is the PM refusing another extension in October and that is it, if the WA did not pass next month we leave with No Deal and there will be no majority in the Commons to stop it
>
> Talk us through - in detail - how Britain will be able to do the things it can currently do under the ca. 700 agreements it will fall out of on a No Deal exit.
It will just have to renegotiate them unless and until a new Deal is done with the EU
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > >
> > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
> >
> > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
> >
> > Desperate stuff.
>
> I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > In normal times Cyclefree makes good points about what a good leader needs but we are not in normal times and the Tories are facing potential doom unless they get a leader who can win back voters from the Brexit Party.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > > > >
> > > > > It is precisely when times are hard and difficult decisions need making that one needs a leader of real substantive quality.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the Tories think that treating the governance of this country is a matter for a popularity contest then they will be doomed - and deservedly so.
> > > >
> > > > 'Real, substantive quality' ie a Remainer.
> > > >
> > > > The Tories are leaking voters like a sieve to the Brexit Party precisely because we are still in the EU two months after we were due to have left, what the Tories need now is a Leaver who actually believes in Brexit and will deliver it, Deal or No Deal
> > > >
> > >
> > > The "will deliver it" is the problem as it is not in the gift of the Tory leader to do so, yet they will all promise they can get it done. The inevitable outcome is more disappointment and frustration from Brexiteers.
> >
> > The 'will deliver it' is quite simple, call a general election with a manifesto commitment to take the UK out of the EU with No Deal in October if the WA fails again next month
>
> The Tories are 20% to get any majority at the next election. It will be less if they have not delivered Brexit. A small majority still wont cut it for no deal. There is no guarantee the DUP will support no deal when it comes to it.
>
> Your simple solution, is indeed very simple, but it has a <10% chance of success, probably <5%.
>
> Complicated solutions and strategies thinking more than one or two moves ahead are actually required.
There are no 'complicated solutions and strategies thinking' left if the Commons rejects the WA, it will either be revoke or No Deal by October, Macron would likely veto any further extension
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @nunuone said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > twitter.com/thehistoryguy/status/1130109047569637376
> > > >
> > > > Really? Of all the people something like this could happen to, it has to happen to a high profile remainer?
> > >
> > > Remainders know they are going to lose badly so are trying to discredit the vote before it even takes place.
> > >
> > > Desperate stuff.
> >
> > I can confidently predict that both leavers and remainers will proclaim victory on Friday by adding up the party votes (in the ways that best suit their cause).
>
> They’d have to be clairvoyant to be claiming victory on Friday. The votes aren’t counted until Sunday night...
Proclaiming victory based off exit poll perhaps?