> @noneoftheabove said: > "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal" > > The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder. > > So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that. >
The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be.
You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either.
If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10.
> Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> On the QM2? Enjoy!
No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
Mrs Stodge and I will also be all at sea then - not on your ship. We will be in the Adriatic with Holland America and very much looking forward to it.
> @malcolmg said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US > > Hope you and your wife have a wonderful trip G.
Thanks Malc. My wife has connections with Nova Scotia as indeed do many Scots - hence Nova Scotia
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists > > > > > > > > > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away > > > > > > > > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP > > > > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it. > > I agree Malc. > > Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out.
Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well > > > > > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then > > > > > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again. > > > > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists > > > > That is a non sequitur. Not all Brexit Party voters would have the Tories as second preferences. Many are likely to prefer Labour or the SNP. > > A handful maybe but we don't have second preferences for either Westminster, European or Holyrood elections thanks to the rejection of AV in the 2011 referendum so that is largely irrelevant. > > If we were Australia which has AV preferences would be relevant but we do not. > > The movement as the figures show is clearly almost entirely Tory to Brexit Party and Labour to LD and Green given the SNP are virtually unchanged on 2017 regardless of whether a handful of Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party or a handful of Tory voters are now voting LD
I am well aware that AV does not apply here for these elections, but your comment appeared to imply that Brexit voters in Scotland would vote Tory were their own party not on the ballot paper. That assumption rather repeats the mistake made by so many commentators in 2017 - ie that vitrually all 2015 UKIP voters would switch to the Tories.
> @stodge said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US > > Mrs Stodge and I will also be all at sea then - not on your ship. We will be in the Adriatic with Holland America and very much looking forward to it.
We were in the Adriatic on Crown Princess this time last year and it was fabulous. I am sure you will both have a great cruise
> @HYUFD said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away > > > > > > > > > > > > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP > > > > > > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it. > > > > I agree Malc. > > > > Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out. > > Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each
> Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> On the QM2? Enjoy!
No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal" > > > > The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder. > > > > So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that. > > > > The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be. > > You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either. > > If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10. >
The attorney general says it would have been illegal for May not to ask for an extension if requested to do so by parliament. Presumably this applies to Boris as well, so he will have to do it or resign (assuming he has somehow magically avoided votes of no confidence whilst heading for no deal).
No deal in the current parliament is almost impossible to deliver, of all the contenders Boris is the least likely to achieve it as he will lose about a dozen votes from people who just want to see him fail but would be loyal to other contenders.
> @CarlottaVance said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US > > Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
Sailed on the Sapphire Princess some 10 years ago (if it's the same ship) Auckland to Sydney, via Milford Sound, Hobart and Melbourne. Very comfortable, as I recall, although at one stage we were on a table right under the air-conditioning. The Skywalker Bar was good, though, with excellent views.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos). Enough said really. I don't see any other candidate with anything like that combination of qualifications. I don't see how Farage would attack her either.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal" > > > > > > The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder. > > > > > > So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that. > > > > > > > The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be. > > > > You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either. > > > > If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10. > > > > The attorney general says it would have been illegal for May not to ask for an extension if requested to do so by parliament. Presumably this applies to Boris as well, so he will have to do it or resign (assuming he has somehow magically avoided votes of no confidence whilst heading for no deal). > > No deal in the current parliament is almost impossible to deliver, of all the contenders Boris is the least likely to achieve it as he will lose about a dozen votes from people who just want to see him fail but would be loyal to other contenders. > > I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls.
If May is still in post and pushes further extension or offers a Revoke or No Deal vote (if Macron does veto) and the Commons votes for Revoke then the way will be open for a Farage premiership
> Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP > > > > > > > > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it. > > > > > > I agree Malc. > > > > > > Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out. > > > > Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each > > You do not know the Scots
I know enough basic Maths to know that 62% of Scots not voting SNP shows Scotland is not 'rock solid SNP'
> > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> >
>
> > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
>
>
> No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on
Golden Princess - the second of the series with the funky disco suspend over the stern (since removed) - but it was a great way to waddle across theAtlantic - if you ever get the chance the QM2 is a great way to do it too!
> @OldKingCole said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US > > Sailed on the Sapphire Princess some 10 years ago (if it's the same ship) Auckland to Sydney, via Milford Sound, Hobart and Melbourne. Very comfortable, as I recall, although at one stage we were on a table right under the air-conditioning. The Skywalker Bar was good, though, with excellent views.
She was launched in 2004 and underwent a refit in 2012. We have sailed on her before. Indeed we have sailed on Diamond, Emerald (twice) Royal, Crown, and after September Sapphire (twice). Your Aus-NZ cruise was about the same time we were holidaying in Australia and New Zealand for the first time
> @CarlottaVance said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On the QM2? Enjoy! > > > > > > > > > > > > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US > > > > > > Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag! > > > > Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on > > Golden Princess - the second of the series with the funky disco suspend over the stern (since removed) - but it was a great way to waddle across theAtlantic - if you ever get the chance the QM2 is a great way to do it too!
QM2 is the traditional voyage and has its attractions but this years trip is likely to be our last long distance cruise, but we have cruised worldwide over the last 10 or so years and are so grateful for all our seagoing experiences with both of us loving the sea and ships
It shows how weak both the Tories and Labour are that they'll turn a blind eye to members and MPs coming out and urging people to vote for other parties. It can't be long before massive splits happen.
"I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around? > > I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive. > > For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now. > > Now that is a great idea for the Tories. > > I wonder if the Labour proposal is too late? ______________________________
2-3 weeks too late, I'd say. The Green Party was on EU election alert 8 weeks ago so it's not as if Labour didn't have time to plan this.
A friend thinks that Labour making an announcement 2 weeks ago and repeating thereafter would have done it. Most voters don't follow politics closely and wouldn't have remembered its previous chaotic policy!
The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
> @HYUFD said: I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls. ______________________________________________
I can understand the attraction of that from your political viewpoint. It's a way of re-uniting the centre-right under the Conservative banner. At the moment, the Conservatives are under serious pressure from TBP and there's a very real risk of meaningful defections if nothing changes.
The only problem I foresee is this - I strongly suspect May and the Cabinet were told some uncomfortable truths about the economic damage and dislocation leaving the EU without an agreed WA would cause. This explains her complete refusal to countenance a "No Deal" Brexit.
Boris, if PM, will see the same advice so what will he do? Will he put his own political advantage ahead of the economic wellbeing of the country? I wouldn't put it past him in all honesty and IF he wins a majority, we leave without a WA and the consequences are as severe as forecast, what then?
You have often argued a Corbyn administration would be a fantastic recruiting sergeant for the Conservatives and I don't disagree but in lieu of that would not an economically disastrous exit from the EU be a powerful recruiter for Corbyn and Labour?
> @nico67 said: > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross . > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this . > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that. > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous . > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates. > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far . > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM . > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
> @noneoftheabove said: > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls." > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
As Australia showed yesterday and we saw in 2015 if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls." > > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave. > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both. > > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it ---------------------------------
May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
------------------------- I certainly don't think it good that many councils are as dominated by a single party as they are, some 100% for one party, as even if they try hard I think in the long term bad behaviour, laziness and entitlement will occur, but is there any proof that local councils in scotland are inherently better run as a result of no majorities?
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross . > > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this . > > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that. > > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous . > > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates. > > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far . > > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM . > > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October. > > > >
So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them.
The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it.
> > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> >
>
> > Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
>
>
>
> Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on
>
> Golden Princess - the second of the series with the funky disco suspend over the stern (since removed) - but it was a great way to waddle across theAtlantic - if you ever get the chance the QM2 is a great way to do it too!
QM2 is the traditional voyage and has its attractions but this years trip is likely to be our last long distance cruise, but we have cruised worldwide over the last 10 or so years and are so grateful for all our seagoing experiences with both of us loving the sea and ships
The Grand class and its descendants are the most successful class of cruise ships ever - glad you enjoy them! One of the reasons I like the QM2 is it carries the same number of passengers in a ship that’s nearly 50% bigger. But there’s nothing quite like arriving in New York by sea! (It’s worth getting up early for!).
> @nico67 said: > The biggest attack line the Tories have against Corbyn is the economy . > > The Tories have always been seen as the party of business . So a government policy of no deal completely negates that attack . > > Business have been operating for the last few years with government policy of a deal. They had voices in the cabinet fighting to stop no deal . > > If policy becomes no deal , businesses will not threaten to do things they will actually act. > >
Businesses will not vote for Corbyn, more voters today with Opinium back No Deal than further extension and revoke COMBINED and more voters in the same poll back No Deal than EUref2.
If the WA fails to pass again if the Tories extend again (or revoke if Macron vetoes) rather than deliver Brexit, even with No Deal, then they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main challengers to Labour, it is that simple. Being the party of wealthy globalist businessmen gets you to 15-20% max but if you lose most Brexiteers you have no chance of power
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls." > > > > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave. > > > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both. > > > > > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it > --------------------------------- > > May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
May led Tories still won most votes and seats.
Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month
> @stodge said: > > @HYUFD said: > I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls. > ______________________________________________ > > I can understand the attraction of that from your political viewpoint. It's a way of re-uniting the centre-right under the Conservative banner. At the moment, the Conservatives are under serious pressure from TBP and there's a very real risk of meaningful defections if nothing changes. > > The only problem I foresee is this - I strongly suspect May and the Cabinet were told some uncomfortable truths about the economic damage and dislocation leaving the EU without an agreed WA would cause. This explains her complete refusal to countenance a "No Deal" Brexit. > > Boris, if PM, will see the same advice so what will he do? Will he put his own political advantage ahead of the economic wellbeing of the country? I wouldn't put it past him in all honesty and IF he wins a majority, we leave without a WA and the consequences are as severe as forecast, what then? > > You have often argued a Corbyn administration would be a fantastic recruiting sergeant for the Conservatives and I don't disagree but in lieu of that would not an economically disastrous exit from the EU be a powerful recruiter for Corbyn and Labour?
As I have already said multiple times we ONLY get No Deal if a general election is won on a No Deal manifesto platform given the current Commons will always block No Deal.
So what the consequences of No Deal would be politically is completely irrelevant in terms of the next general election as we only get to No Deal if Corbyn is defeated by a party, either the Tories or the Brexit Party, with No Deal Brexit in its manifesto
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls." > > > > > > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave. > > > > > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both. > > > > > > > > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it > > --------------------------------- > > > > May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want? > > May led Tories still won most votes and seats. > > Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month >
You misunderstand me and fail to address the point to boot. May led Tories were still leading in the polls for quite a portion of this year, until the reality of not being able to deliver Brexit hit them. You are excited that Boris might have them recover to parity or a lead, but reality would still hit, and why exactly would a Boris led Tory party continue to have parity or a lead when they too fail to deliver and have to try for a GE?
He can try for a mandate for no deal, but why does that lead to a Tory victory? Particularly when there's no reason to suppose the polls indicating a recovery under Boris can be sustained, given May had plenty of leads post 2017 too.
Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal .
The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross . > > > > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this . > > > > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that. > > > > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous . > > > > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates. > > > > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far . > > > > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM . > > > > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October. > > > > > > > > > > So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them. > > The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it.
There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA.
The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats
> @nico67 said: > The biggest attack line the Tories have against Corbyn is the economy . > > The Tories have always been seen as the party of business . So a government policy of no deal completely negates that attack .
If it were that simple then Labour would have won the 1992 general election.
In the Tories favour in a no deal scenario would be the potential for a Nationalistic response, blaming the EU, rather than the government, for any economic suffering. Also there is the potential for the voters to imagine Labour making the economic situation - and in particular their personal financial situation - much, much worse.
And then, a complacent Labour might assume they deserve victory in the wake of no deal, and not do the hard thinking required to win it.
> @nico67 said: > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal . > > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament . > > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref . > > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
Rubbish.
Opinium today.
If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%.
So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined.
FPT. Extraordinary polling for Pro Remain Parties. I make it 56/40
They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would.
*I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
Interesting as always from Cyclefree. An amusing sideline is guessing the author as you read - I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences and a little less caustic than Alastair, sharper but less judicious than David. All three are exceptionally good reads.
We have got so used to thinking of the Tories as a rabble that I think we may be underestimating the bounce that a Not Mrs May leader will get early on, if they have the sense to make an inclusive and purposeful-sounding speech early on. A lot of people still don't feel all that strongly about EU membership but they really, really feel strongly that they are not getting clear leadership from anyone except bloody Farage. That bloc of voters will swing sharply to give a honeymoon to any of the main Tory candidates.
There will then be a window of opportunity to Do Something. People will have little patience with MPs trying to stop them. The question is whether they have a clear idea of what they want to do.
> @Roger said: > FPT. Extraordinary polling for Pro Remain Parties. I make it 56/40 > > They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would. > > *I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
That may, however, say a lot about who you speak to. For me, it is Brexit or Labour. Which says much about who I speak to.
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross . > > > > > > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this . > > > > > > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that. > > > > > > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous . > > > > > > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates. > > > > > > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far . > > > > > > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM . > > > > > > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them. > > > > The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it. > > There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA. > > > The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats
There are lots of ways, they just require some thought. Here is one, offer Labour a referendum on Tory deal vs Labour deal and give Labour access to the civil service and EU negotiators to firm up their deal. This breaks the Labour obfuscation, and would be as hard to refuse as the offer of a general election was in 2017. Given there is little difference between the two potential deals it doesnt matter which side wins that referendum.
If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election.
Leaflet scorecard so far - LD 2, BP 1, Green 1, UKIP 1, English Democrats 1. LD, BP, and UKIP were addressed personally. The second LD had one side reporting on local government success, and the other on Euro vote. Nothing from Labour of the Conservatives.
> @Roger said: > FPT. Extraordinary polling for Pro Remain Parties. I make it 56/40 > > They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would. > > *I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal . > > > > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament . > > > > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref . > > > > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like . > > Rubbish. > > Opinium today. > > If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%. > > So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined. > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png > > The same poll also has Leave with No Deal 6% ahead of delay and hold EUref2 47% to 41% > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png
Those are leading questions, delay clearly has negative connotations. If you ask should we rush into no deal or give parliament enough time to get a deal you would get a (slightly) different answer.
An amusing sideline is guessing the author as you read - I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences and a little less caustic than Alastair, sharper but less judicious than David. All three are exceptionally good reads.
Works with comments below the line too, with the exception of the them all being good reads
Leaflet scorecard so far - LD 2, BP 1, Green 1, UKIP 1, English Democrats 1. LD, BP, and UKIP were addressed personally. The second LD had one side reporting on local government success, and the other on Euro vote. Nothing from Labour of the Conservatives.
Leaflet score from me 1 BXP, nothing from anyone else. And that one is actually addressed to the other person in the House.
I wonder if it is one targeted at suspected Labour voters, since the first point is about how many Lab MPs back a second referendum, and despite her being the lead candidate in the SW Ann Widdecombe is not listed.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls." > > > > > > > > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave. > > > > > > > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both. > > > > > > > > > > > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it > > > --------------------------------- > > > > > > May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want? > > > > May led Tories still won most votes and seats. > > > > Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month > > > > You misunderstand me and fail to address the point to boot. May led Tories were still leading in the polls for quite a portion of this year, until the reality of not being able to deliver Brexit hit them. You are excited that Boris might have them recover to parity or a lead, but reality would still hit, and why exactly would a Boris led Tory party continue to have parity or a lead when they too fail to deliver and have to try for a GE? > > He can try for a mandate for no deal, but why does that lead to a Tory victory? Particularly when there's no reason to suppose the polls indicating a recovery under Boris can be sustained, given May had plenty of leads post 2017 too.
May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labor this morning with most votes counted.
As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined
> Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos). Enough said really. I don't see any other candidate with anything like that combination of qualifications. I don't see how Farage would attack her either.
> Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos). Enough said really. I don't see any other candidate with anything like that combination of qualifications. I don't see how Farage would attack her either.
Yes. It has to be Leadsom. Cometh the hour ...
Even on PB, reaction in varied quarters to her potential candidature has ranged from mildly critical to very much in favour. I've been surprised.
May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labour this morning with most votes counted.
As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined
I remain confused as to why that means Boris, who cannot deliver no deal, will be able to hold onto those leads to the point of thinking he can win an election off the back of it. We failed (again), vote for us?
At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross . > > > > > > > > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this . > > > > > > > > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that. > > > > > > > > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous . > > > > > > > > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates. > > > > > > > > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far . > > > > > > > > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM . > > > > > > > > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So if leavin. > > > > > > The Brexit party vo > > > > There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA. > > > > > > The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats > > There are lots of ways, they just require some thought. Here is one, offer Labour a referendum on Tory deal vs Labour deal and give Labour access to the civil service and EU negotiators to firm up their deal. This breaks the Labour obfuscation, and would be as hard to refuse as the offer of a general election was in 2017. Given there is little difference between the two potential deals it doesnt matter which side wins that referendum. > > If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election.
Barely any Tory MPs will vote for any Deal with a referendum attached, nor will a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats either. As the indicative votes showed more voted for May's Deal last time than for Deal plus confirmatory referendum
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal . > > > > > > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament . > > > > > > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref . > > > > > > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like . > > > > Rubbish. > > > > Opinium today. > > > > If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%. > > > > So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined. > > > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png > > > > The same poll also has Leave with No Deal 6% ahead of delay and hold EUref2 47% to 41% > > > > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png > > Those are leading questions, delay clearly has negative connotations. If you ask should we rush into no deal or give parliament enough time to get a deal you would get a (slightly) different answer. > >
You might have done a year ago, if the Commons votes down the WA a 4th time despite having delayed Brexit to give more time to get a deal through when we should have left 2 months ago it is clear most voters now think we should just leave with No Deal as the current Commons clearly at that point has no interest in delivering Brexit despite Leave winning the referendum
At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
Being uncharitable that could be quite the collectable in years to come, see if you can grab more than one!
At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
> @kle4 said: > May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labour this morning with most votes counted. > > > > As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined > > I remain confused as to why that means Boris, who cannot deliver no deal, will be able to hold onto those leads to the point of thinking he can win an election off the back of it. We failed (again), vote for us?
If Boris takes over if May and her Deal fail again then it is simple, if he wins a majority on a manifesto commitment for No Deal then it is No Deal and maybe try and renegotiate with a technical solution replacing the backstop for a Canada style FTA after that election is won.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too! > > It least monochrome is perennially fashionable... Unfortunately they ran out of anything that would fit me before I got there. Only Medium and Small left now
To be honest I’m now past caring what happens . Give the public no deal and see how they like it .
If it’s going to be Remain or no deal , those pro EU will win eventually . No deal will see the Tories and the no deal fantasists shown up for what they are.
> May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labour this morning with most votes counted.
>
>
>
> As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined
>
> I remain confused as to why that means Boris, who cannot deliver no deal, will be able to hold onto those leads to the point of thinking he can win an election off the back of it. We failed (again), vote for us?
If Boris takes over if May and her Deal fail again then it is simple, if he wins a majority on a manifesto commitment for No Deal then it is No Deal and maybe try and renegotiate with a technical solution replacing the backstop for a Canada style FTA after that election is won.
It's the 'if he wins' bit I have issue with. Why will that happen? Unless no deal support is distributed perfectly for Tory seats their voting coalition will collapse backing a no deal, as a whole bunch of Tory remainers won't vote them and they need to hope for enough Labour no dealers to back them to make up for it in the right places.
> @Mauve said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too! > > > > It least monochrome is perennially fashionable... > Unfortunately they ran out of anything that would fit me before I got there. Only Medium and Small left now >
You mean they are hoovering up the Fat-bastard Gammon voters?
> @Mauve said: > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
A rally with 40 people. We get that many for our branch singalong evenings.
> At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
A rally with 40 people. We get that many for our branch singalong evenings.
One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal .
Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism.
> At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
>
> It least monochrome is perennially fashionable...
Unfortunately they ran out of anything that would fit me before I got there. Only Medium and Small left now
Get one anyway, say it’s for your daughter or something. You could eBay it once it becomes a collectors item.
> @NickPalmer said: > Interesting as always from Cyclefree. An amusing sideline is guessing the author as you read - I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences and a little less caustic than Alastair, sharper but less judicious than David. All three are exceptionally good reads. > > We have got so used to thinking of the Tories as a rabble that I think we may be underestimating the bounce that a Not Mrs May leader will get early on, if they have the sense to make an inclusive and purposeful-sounding speech early on. A lot of people still don't feel all that strongly about EU membership but they really, really feel strongly that they are not getting clear leadership from anyone except bloody Farage. That bloc of voters will swing sharply to give a honeymoon to any of the main Tory candidates. > > There will then be a window of opportunity to Do Something. People will have little patience with MPs trying to stop them. The question is whether they have a clear idea of what they want to do.
"I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences.......'
Interesting. Of the three I would say cyclefree's sentences are the longest. Try this 59er. It's Not exactly James Elroy!
"When choosing a leader, who they are likely to pick as their key advisors/colleagues, how they work with them, their ability and willingness to take responsibility, to have their team’s back, to engender respect, trust and loyalty, to be worthy of that trust (from both colleagues and staff) will be at least as important as the leader’s individual qualities".
> @logical_song said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > In the EU elections do we vote in order of preference? Or do we just vote for one party? > > > > Just one party. > > Which is why it's not a good system, STV is much better.
Was in order of preference in 1999 wasn't it? That one was entirely by post as well I think?
I'm sure I remember my grandmother receiving a huge ballot paper in the post with an assortment of different parties and being totally befuddled what she was supposed to do with it...
> @ydoethur said: > > @Mauve said: > > > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too! > > > > A rally with 40 people. We get that many for our branch singalong evenings. > > Do you have a decent organist? > > If not my rates are very reasonable.
If you can play "The Red Flag" you're in with a chance!
> @nico67 said: > One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal . > > Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
They have enjoyed a hugely disproportionate level of influence for a couple of years. I doubt they will get the opportunity again.
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed > > > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland" > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed > > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
> @kle4 said: > One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal . > > > > Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI. > > The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism.
The UUP want a deal , they don’t want a no deal . If the DUP enable a no deal the unionists will have another party to go to . Lucid Talk have polled on Brexit in the past , the results are clear . Even Unionists by a large majority want a deal and would prefer a softer Brexit .
The agriculture sector in NI is much bigger than in the rest of the UK. That will be decimated with a no deal . Many farmers historically had supported the Unionists , they had a lot of donations from them .
So throwing them under a bus and the overall economy is going to cause Foster and co big problems .
> One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal .
>
>
>
> Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
>
> The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism.
The UUP want a deal , they don’t want a no deal . If the DUP enable a no deal the unionists will have another party to go to . Lucid Talk have polled on Brexit in the past , the results are clear . Even Unionists by a large majority want a deal and would prefer a softer Brexit .
The agriculture sector in NI is much bigger than in the rest of the UK. That will be decimated with a no deal . Many farmers historically had supported the Unionists , they had a lot of donations from them .
So throwing them under a bus and the overall economy is going to cause Foster and co big problems .
I hope so, but the chances of the DUP backing down before it bites them in the arse seems minimal. Even for politicians they seem entirely concerned with whether they will be embarrassed by changing direction, it is all about them all the time.
P.S Oh, and let us not forget that their go to criticism of people criticisng them would be to fall back on lazy talk about people not understanding NI. Which only they do.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal . > > > > > > > > > > > > Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI. > > > > > > The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism. > > > > The UUP want a deal , they don’t want a no deal . If the DUP enable a no deal the unionists will have another party to go to . Lucid Talk have polled on Brexit in the past , the results are clear . Even Unionists by a large majority want a deal and would prefer a softer Brexit . > > > > The agriculture sector in NI is much bigger than in the rest of the UK. That will be decimated with a no deal . Many farmers historically had supported the Unionists , they had a lot of donations from them . > > > > So throwing them under a bus and the overall economy is going to cause Foster and co big problems . > > I hope so, but the chances of the DUP backing down before it bites them in the arse seems minimal. Even for politicians they seem entirely concerned with whether they will be embarrassed by changing direction, ti is all abotu them all the time.
I despise the DUP even more than the ERG.
To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots .
> @nico67 said: > > I despise the DUP even more than the ERG. > > To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots . ------------
From a game theory perspective I think you can make a case for their strategy being correct. If they'd been pro-Remain, English Brexiteers would have been more likely to support the backstop and believe the long-term solution was a united Ireland.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed > > > > > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland" > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed > > > > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives > > Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals.
They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance.
This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in.
Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.
> @williamglenn said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > I despise the DUP even more than the ERG. > > > > To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots . > ------------ > > From a game theory perspective I think you can make a case for their strategy being correct. If they'd been pro-Remain, English Brexiteers would have been more likely to support the backstop and believe the long-term solution was a united Ireland.
The DUP given they were needed to keep the Tories in power could have pushed for a softer Brexit . The DUP have betrayed the peace process and deserve to see a hard border down the Irish Sea which is exactly what they’ll get if the Tories don’t need them in the future.
> Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals. > > They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance. > > This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in. > > Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.<
> @Byronic said: > > @another_richard said: > > > Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals. > > > > They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance. > > > > This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in. > > > > Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.< > > ++++ > > Indeed: > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1130100918081523712
> The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
Problem is the city dwelling liberals are all concentrated in their bubble and think everyone else thinks like them as they don’t engage outside their bubble and frankly sneer and look down on their supposed ‘inferiors’. Stupid, poorly educated, didn’t know what they were voting for and of course the final tactic when all else fails ‘racist’
Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite.
An American journo interviews a couple of young Brits, presumably in N England, about Tommy Robinson. I like the first girl's casual but not inarticulate dismissal of him. She just laughs him off, as one should.
However the second young guy is disturbing. He thinks that "no criticism of Islam should be allowed". Full stop. None.
I hear a lot of this stuff from Generation Z/iGen. They either have a warped grasp of what Free Speech and the Enlightenment mean, and their importance, or they are the first post free speech generation, they don't want the Enlightenment, they actively support blasphemy laws.
That is, for me, very sad. The death of the West, almost by accident.
Always whining about the south . London pays more into the Treasury than it takes out .
He’s also a Lexiter whose intent on enabling a right wing capitalism on steroids Brexit . If he thinks this is going to help his constituents he’s deluded .
> @brendan16 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed > > > > > > > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland" > > > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed > > > > > > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives > > > > Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located. > > Problem is the city dwelling liberals are all concentrated in their bubble and think everyone else thinks like them as they don’t engage outside their bubble and frankly sneer and look down on their supposed ‘inferiors’. Stupid, poorly educated, didn’t know what they were voting for and of course the final tactic when all else fails ‘racist’ > > Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite.
You seem to have quite a chip on your shoulder about them, but populism has long thrived on envy.
> > There are lots of ways, they just require some thought. Here is one, offer Labour a referendum on Tory deal vs Labour deal and give Labour access to the civil service and EU negotiators to firm up their deal. This breaks the Labour obfuscation, and would be as hard to refuse as the offer of a general election was in 2017. Given there is little difference between the two potential deals it doesnt matter which side wins that referendum. > > > > If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election. > > Barely any Tory MPs will vote for any Deal with a referendum attached, nor will a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats either. As the indicative votes showed more voted for May's Deal last time than for Deal plus confirmatory referendum
Why would any MPs who want Brexit not vote for a referendum between Tory Brexit and Labour Brexit? They are virtually identical, apart from each party cannot be seen to support the other one.
> @Byronic said: > > An American journo interviews a couple of young Brits, presumably in N England, about Tommy Robinson. I like the first girl's casual but not inarticulate dismissal of him. She just laughs him off, as one should. > > However the second young guy is disturbing. He thinks that "no criticism of Islam should be allowed". Full stop. None. > ------
Comments
> "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal"
>
> The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder.
>
> So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that.
>
The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be.
You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either.
If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
> >
> > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
> No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
Mrs Stodge and I will also be all at sea then - not on your ship. We will be in the Adriatic with Holland America and very much looking forward to it.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> >
>
> > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
>
>
> No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> Hope you and your wife have a wonderful trip G.
Thanks Malc. My wife has connections with Nova Scotia as indeed do many Scots - hence Nova Scotia
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> >
> > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
> >
> >
> >
> > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP
> >
> > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it.
>
> I agree Malc.
>
> Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out.
Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > >
> > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > > >
> > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> > > >
> > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
> > >
> > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
> >
> > That is a non sequitur. Not all Brexit Party voters would have the Tories as second preferences. Many are likely to prefer Labour or the SNP.
>
> A handful maybe but we don't have second preferences for either Westminster, European or Holyrood elections thanks to the rejection of AV in the 2011 referendum so that is largely irrelevant.
>
> If we were Australia which has AV preferences would be relevant but we do not.
>
> The movement as the figures show is clearly almost entirely Tory to Brexit Party and Labour to LD and Green given the SNP are virtually unchanged on 2017 regardless of whether a handful of Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party or a handful of Tory voters are now voting LD
I am well aware that AV does not apply here for these elections, but your comment appeared to imply that Brexit voters in Scotland would vote Tory were their own party not on the ballot paper. That assumption rather repeats the mistake made by so many commentators in 2017 - ie that vitrually all 2015 UKIP voters would switch to the Tories.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
> > >
> > > On the QM2? Enjoy!
> >
> > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> Mrs Stodge and I will also be all at sea then - not on your ship. We will be in the Adriatic with Holland America and very much looking forward to it.
We were in the Adriatic on Crown Princess this time last year and it was fabulous. I am sure you will both have a great cruise
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > >
> > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP
> > >
> > > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it.
> >
> > I agree Malc.
> >
> > Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out.
>
> Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each
You do not know the Scots
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal"
> >
> > The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder.
> >
> > So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that.
> >
>
> The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be.
>
> You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either.
>
> If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10.
>
The attorney general says it would have been illegal for May not to ask for an extension if requested to do so by parliament. Presumably this applies to Boris as well, so he will have to do it or resign (assuming he has somehow magically avoided votes of no confidence whilst heading for no deal).
No deal in the current parliament is almost impossible to deliver, of all the contenders Boris is the least likely to achieve it as he will lose about a dozen votes from people who just want to see him fail but would be loyal to other contenders.
> I was waiting for another Cyclefree thread.
I hope the wait was worth it.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> >
>
> > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
>
>
> No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
> >
> > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
> No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
Sailed on the Sapphire Princess some 10 years ago (if it's the same ship) Auckland to Sydney, via Milford Sound, Hobart and Melbourne. Very comfortable, as I recall, although at one stage we were on a table right under the air-conditioning. The Skywalker Bar was good, though, with excellent views.
> Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos). Enough said really. I don't see any other candidate with anything like that combination of qualifications. I don't see how Farage would attack her either.
Yes. It has to be Leadsom. Cometh the hour ...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > "If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal"
> > >
> > > The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder.
> > >
> > > So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that.
> > >
> >
> > The EU have made clear they are negotiating with the PM and if a new PM refuses to put forward the WA again if it fails again and goes to No Deal and does not ask for a further extension in October then No Deal it will be.
> >
> > You also ignore that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit Farage's Brexit Party will overtake them and we may indeed get Farage as PM as a result, politics is volatile at the moment and with Corbyn also losing voters to the LDs and Greens as well as working class voters to the Brexit Party the current situation is hardly great for him either.
> >
> > If the Tories are polling under 20% then the Brexit Party will be polling well over 20% and thus contenders for power and the more Tory voters see Farage as the only chance of stopping a Corbyn premiership and delivering Brexit, the greater the chances of Farage entering No 10.
> >
>
> The attorney general says it would have been illegal for May not to ask for an extension if requested to do so by parliament. Presumably this applies to Boris as well, so he will have to do it or resign (assuming he has somehow magically avoided votes of no confidence whilst heading for no deal).
>
> No deal in the current parliament is almost impossible to deliver, of all the contenders Boris is the least likely to achieve it as he will lose about a dozen votes from people who just want to see him fail but would be loyal to other contenders.
>
>
I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls.
If May is still in post and pushes further extension or offers a Revoke or No Deal vote (if Macron does veto) and the Commons votes for Revoke then the way will be open for a Farage premiership
I wonder if the Labour proposal is too late?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > >
> > > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP
> > > >
> > > > Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it.
> > >
> > > I agree Malc.
> > >
> > > Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out.
> >
> > Since when was 38% of the vote 'rock solid' even in 2015 when the SNP polled 12% more than they are on now the Tories and Labour were not completely wiped out even if they only won 1 seat each
>
> You do not know the Scots
I know enough basic Maths to know that 62% of Scots not voting SNP shows Scotland is not 'rock solid SNP'
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
> > >
> > > On the QM2? Enjoy!
> >
> > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> Sailed on the Sapphire Princess some 10 years ago (if it's the same ship) Auckland to Sydney, via Milford Sound, Hobart and Melbourne. Very comfortable, as I recall, although at one stage we were on a table right under the air-conditioning. The Skywalker Bar was good, though, with excellent views.
She was launched in 2004 and underwent a refit in 2012. We have sailed on her before. Indeed we have sailed on Diamond, Emerald (twice) Royal, Crown, and after September Sapphire (twice). Your Aus-NZ cruise was about the same time we were holidaying in Australia and New Zealand for the first time
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> >
>
> > > Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > On the QM2? Enjoy!
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US
>
> >
>
> > Enjoy! I’ve been on one of Sapphire Princess’ sisters - I’m sure you’ll have a great time! You also get home with no jet lag!
>
>
>
> Thank you and yes no jet lag. As a matter of interest which sister ship were you on
>
> Golden Princess - the second of the series with the funky disco suspend over the stern (since removed) - but it was a great way to waddle across theAtlantic - if you ever get the chance the QM2 is a great way to do it too!
QM2 is the traditional voyage and has its attractions but this years trip is likely to be our last long distance cruise, but we have cruised worldwide over the last 10 or so years and are so grateful for all our seagoing experiences with both of us loving the sea and ships
> https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1130066050635173888
It shows how weak both the Tories and Labour are that they'll turn a blind eye to members and MPs coming out and urging people to vote for other parties. It can't be long before massive splits happen.
Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
> The latest Brexit Party video:
>
> https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1130070648909389824?s=21
Sotto voce: If you live in the EUSSR... then you understand how precious democracy is.
> > @Recidivist said:
>
> > Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
>
> I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
>
> For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now.
>
> Now that is a great idea for the Tories.
>
> I wonder if the Labour proposal is too late?
______________________________
2-3 weeks too late, I'd say. The Green Party was on EU election alert 8 weeks ago so it's not as if Labour didn't have time to plan this.
A friend thinks that Labour making an announcement 2 weeks ago and repeating thereafter would have done it. Most voters don't follow politics closely and wouldn't have remembered its previous chaotic policy!
However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls.
______________________________________________
I can understand the attraction of that from your political viewpoint. It's a way of re-uniting the centre-right under the Conservative banner. At the moment, the Conservatives are under serious pressure from TBP and there's a very real risk of meaningful defections if nothing changes.
The only problem I foresee is this - I strongly suspect May and the Cabinet were told some uncomfortable truths about the economic damage and dislocation leaving the EU without an agreed WA would cause. This explains her complete refusal to countenance a "No Deal" Brexit.
Boris, if PM, will see the same advice so what will he do? Will he put his own political advantage ahead of the economic wellbeing of the country? I wouldn't put it past him in all honesty and IF he wins a majority, we leave without a WA and the consequences are as severe as forecast, what then?
You have often argued a Corbyn administration would be a fantastic recruiting sergeant for the Conservatives and I don't disagree but in lieu of that would not an economically disastrous exit from the EU be a powerful recruiter for Corbyn and Labour?
> The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
>
> However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
>
> Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
>
> The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
>
> The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
>
> Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
>
> Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
>
I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
> "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
>
> Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
As Australia showed yesterday and we saw in 2015 if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1130079172968308736?s=20
Good. Majorities on councils aren't good. Scotland has it far better than England.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
> >
> > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
>
> A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
>
>
> As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
---------------------------------
May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1130079172968308736?s=20
>
> Good. Majorities on councils aren't good. Scotland has it far better than England.
-------------------------
I certainly don't think it good that many councils are as dominated by a single party as they are, some 100% for one party, as even if they try hard I think in the long term bad behaviour, laziness and entitlement will occur, but is there any proof that local councils in scotland are inherently better run as a result of no majorities?
> > @nico67 said:
> > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
> >
> > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
> >
> > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
> >
> > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
> >
> > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
> >
> > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
> >
> > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
> >
> I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
>
>
>
>
So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them.
The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it.
The Tories have always been seen as the party of business . So a government policy of no deal completely negates that attack .
Business have been operating for the last few years with government policy of a deal. They had voices in the cabinet fighting to stop no deal .
If policy becomes no deal , businesses will not threaten to do things they will actually act.
> The biggest attack line the Tories have against Corbyn is the economy .
>
> The Tories have always been seen as the party of business . So a government policy of no deal completely negates that attack .
>
> Business have been operating for the last few years with government policy of a deal. They had voices in the cabinet fighting to stop no deal .
>
> If policy becomes no deal , businesses will not threaten to do things they will actually act.
>
>
Businesses will not vote for Corbyn, more voters today with Opinium back No Deal than further extension and revoke COMBINED and more voters in the same poll back No Deal than EUref2.
If the WA fails to pass again if the Tories extend again (or revoke if Macron vetoes) rather than deliver Brexit, even with No Deal, then they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main challengers to Labour, it is that simple. Being the party of wealthy globalist businessmen gets you to 15-20% max but if you lose most Brexiteers you have no chance of power
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
> > >
> > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
> >
> > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
> >
> >
> > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
> ---------------------------------
>
> May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
May led Tories still won most votes and seats.
Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month
> > @HYUFD said:
> I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls.
> ______________________________________________
>
> I can understand the attraction of that from your political viewpoint. It's a way of re-uniting the centre-right under the Conservative banner. At the moment, the Conservatives are under serious pressure from TBP and there's a very real risk of meaningful defections if nothing changes.
>
> The only problem I foresee is this - I strongly suspect May and the Cabinet were told some uncomfortable truths about the economic damage and dislocation leaving the EU without an agreed WA would cause. This explains her complete refusal to countenance a "No Deal" Brexit.
>
> Boris, if PM, will see the same advice so what will he do? Will he put his own political advantage ahead of the economic wellbeing of the country? I wouldn't put it past him in all honesty and IF he wins a majority, we leave without a WA and the consequences are as severe as forecast, what then?
>
> You have often argued a Corbyn administration would be a fantastic recruiting sergeant for the Conservatives and I don't disagree but in lieu of that would not an economically disastrous exit from the EU be a powerful recruiter for Corbyn and Labour?
As I have already said multiple times we ONLY get No Deal if a general election is won on a No Deal manifesto platform given the current Commons will always block No Deal.
So what the consequences of No Deal would be politically is completely irrelevant in terms of the next general election as we only get to No Deal if Corbyn is defeated by a party, either the Tories or the Brexit Party, with No Deal Brexit in its manifesto
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
> > > >
> > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
> > >
> > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
> > >
> > >
> > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
> > ---------------------------------
> >
> > May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
>
> May led Tories still won most votes and seats.
>
> Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month
>
You misunderstand me and fail to address the point to boot. May led Tories were still leading in the polls for quite a portion of this year, until the reality of not being able to deliver Brexit hit them. You are excited that Boris might have them recover to parity or a lead, but reality would still hit, and why exactly would a Boris led Tory party continue to have parity or a lead when they too fail to deliver and have to try for a GE?
He can try for a mandate for no deal, but why does that lead to a Tory victory? Particularly when there's no reason to suppose the polls indicating a recovery under Boris can be sustained, given May had plenty of leads post 2017 too.
The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
> > >
> > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
> > >
> > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
> > >
> > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
> > >
> > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
> > >
> > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
> > >
> > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
> > >
> > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them.
>
> The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it.
There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA.
The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats
> The biggest attack line the Tories have against Corbyn is the economy .
>
> The Tories have always been seen as the party of business . So a government policy of no deal completely negates that attack .
If it were that simple then Labour would have won the 1992 general election.
In the Tories favour in a no deal scenario would be the potential for a Nationalistic response, blaming the EU, rather than the government, for any economic suffering. Also there is the potential for the voters to imagine Labour making the economic situation - and in particular their personal financial situation - much, much worse.
And then, a complacent Labour might assume they deserve victory in the wake of no deal, and not do the hard thinking required to win it.
> Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal .
>
> The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
>
> The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
>
> No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
Rubbish.
Opinium today.
If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%.
So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png
The same poll also has Leave with No Deal 6% ahead of delay and hold EUref2 47% to 41%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png
They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would.
*I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
We have got so used to thinking of the Tories as a rabble that I think we may be underestimating the bounce that a Not Mrs May leader will get early on, if they have the sense to make an inclusive and purposeful-sounding speech early on. A lot of people still don't feel all that strongly about EU membership but they really, really feel strongly that they are not getting clear leadership from anyone except bloody Farage. That bloc of voters will swing sharply to give a honeymoon to any of the main Tory candidates.
There will then be a window of opportunity to Do Something. People will have little patience with MPs trying to stop them. The question is whether they have a clear idea of what they want to do.
> FPT. Extraordinary polling for Pro Remain Parties. I make it 56/40
>
> They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would.
>
> *I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
That may, however, say a lot about who you speak to.
For me, it is Brexit or Labour. Which says much about who I speak to.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
> > > >
> > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
> > > >
> > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
> > > >
> > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
> > > >
> > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
> > > >
> > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
> > > >
> > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
> > > >
> > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> > So if leaving with a deal is best chance of a Tory victory, the best electoral leadership choice is the candidate who has most chance of bridging the gaps in parliament, I think it is pretty clear that is Stewart, and that Boris has the least chance of all of them.
> >
> > The Brexit party vote is more likely to go down if any Brexit is delivered than simply because another Tory leader says how much they want Brexit but cannot find a way to deliver it.
>
> There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA.
>
>
> The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats
There are lots of ways, they just require some thought. Here is one, offer Labour a referendum on Tory deal vs Labour deal and give Labour access to the civil service and EU negotiators to firm up their deal. This breaks the Labour obfuscation, and would be as hard to refuse as the offer of a general election was in 2017. Given there is little difference between the two potential deals it doesnt matter which side wins that referendum.
If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election.
> FPT. Extraordinary polling for Pro Remain Parties. I make it 56/40
>
> They've got four days to sort themselves out. Voters need to know who THE Remain candidates are. I believe Gina Miller has a tactical voting site but that doesn't serve the PR purpose that a single Remain party would.
>
> *I think the Lib Dems are going to surprise everyone. Mid to high 20s a distinct possibly. Everyone I speak to seems to have decided they're the ones.
That'll be the company you keep, Roger!
> > @nico67 said:
> > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal .
> >
> > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
> >
> > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
> >
> > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
>
> Rubbish.
>
> Opinium today.
>
> If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%.
>
> So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined.
>
> https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png
>
> The same poll also has Leave with No Deal 6% ahead of delay and hold EUref2 47% to 41%
>
> https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png
Those are leading questions, delay clearly has negative connotations. If you ask should we rush into no deal or give parliament enough time to get a deal you would get a (slightly) different answer.
I wonder if it is one targeted at suspected Labour voters, since the first point is about how many Lab MPs back a second referendum, and despite her being the lead candidate in the SW Ann Widdecombe is not listed.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > "I suspect if we get to October without the Commons voting for the WA and again voting to try and force the PM to ask for extension (assuming it is not vetoed by Macron anyway) then a PM Boris would call a snap general election to get a mandate for No Deal which I suspect the public would grant him judging by today's polls."
> > > > >
> > > > > Choosing a leader because you think he is an election winner when 64% of the country do not see him as PM material, the party is polling 20%, he cannot get his main policy through parliament and would call a snap election within a month or two of starting is ....... very brave.
> > > >
> > > > A Boris led Tories would be neck and neck with Corbyn Labour in 2 polls from Survation and Comres this week, the Tories currently trail Labour in both.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > As Australia showed yesterday if the polls are neck and neck the conservative party normally wins it
> > > ---------------------------------
> > >
> > > May led Tories were neck and neck with Corbyn Labour or even ahead of Corbyn led Labour for quite some time. Why would a Boris led Tories be able to maintain parity or a lead when reality hits and it turns out bellowing Brexit loudly doesn't make it magically happen the way they want?
> >
> > May led Tories still won most votes and seats.
> >
> > Boris led Tories would call a general election to get a mandate for No Deal if the Commons refuses to vote for the WA again next month
> >
>
> You misunderstand me and fail to address the point to boot. May led Tories were still leading in the polls for quite a portion of this year, until the reality of not being able to deliver Brexit hit them. You are excited that Boris might have them recover to parity or a lead, but reality would still hit, and why exactly would a Boris led Tory party continue to have parity or a lead when they too fail to deliver and have to try for a GE?
>
> He can try for a mandate for no deal, but why does that lead to a Tory victory? Particularly when there's no reason to suppose the polls indicating a recovery under Boris can be sustained, given May had plenty of leads post 2017 too.
May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labor this morning with most votes counted.
As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > The current crop of politicians aren’t up to much barring a few who stand out amidst the dross .
> > > > >
> > > > > However giving the country a no deal because the public are either fed up or believe this no deal would work out okay is shortsighted and I’m sure many politicians behind the rhetoric understand this .
> > > > >
> > > > > Who will the public blame if it’s a disaster , they certainly won’t blame themselves for that.
> > > > >
> > > > > The buck will stop with those who said it would all be marvelous .
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tories can win the next election if they leave the EU with a deal . The BP rise isn’t so much about no deal but the fact Brexit hasn’t happened . Deliver Brexit and the balloon deflates.
> > > > >
> > > > > Those who wanted to Leave will be just happy it’s done , the Tories keep their more moderate pro EU voters who have largely stuck by them so far .
> > > > >
> > > > > Leaving with no deal gives Corbyn the best chance to become PM .
> > > > >
> > > > I agree the Tories best chance of victory will be leaving with a Deal but you ignore the elephant in the room that given the current Commons will always vote to block No Deal by extending Art 50 or even revoking Brexit we will only get No Deal if a PM wins a general election on a No Deal manifesto platform and defeats Corbyn or if Macron vetoes any further extension in October.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > So if leavin.
> > >
> > > The Brexit party vo
> >
> > There is no bridging of gaps in Parliament, Remainers who want EUref2 will ALWAYS vote down the WA and ERG hardliners will ALWAYS vote down the WA.
> >
> >
> > The only way the WA gets through is if enough Labour MPs from Leave seats join those who voted for it last time and vote for the WA in panic at the rise of the Brexit Party threatening their seats
>
> There are lots of ways, they just require some thought. Here is one, offer Labour a referendum on Tory deal vs Labour deal and give Labour access to the civil service and EU negotiators to firm up their deal. This breaks the Labour obfuscation, and would be as hard to refuse as the offer of a general election was in 2017. Given there is little difference between the two potential deals it doesnt matter which side wins that referendum.
>
> If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election.
Barely any Tory MPs will vote for any Deal with a referendum attached, nor will a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats either. As the indicative votes showed more voted for May's Deal last time than for Deal plus confirmatory referendum
> In the EU elections do we vote in order of preference? Or do we just vote for one party?
Just one party.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Once again the BBC and others totally misrepresenting the Comres question on no deal .
> > >
> > > The public did not back a no deal Brexit in huge numbers . The question was about Parliament .
> > >
> > > The media seem obsessed with pushing the no deal as what people want . The public when asked what they actually would like by a large margin prefer a deal, or other things such as revoke or another EU ref .
> > >
> > > No deal as a preferred option remains a minority position , hypothetical questions as in if this and that happens what should happen are not the same as what the public would like .
> >
> > Rubbish.
> >
> > Opinium today.
> >
> > If the Commons can't agree a Deal should we go ahead with Brexit even if it means No Deal 46%, revoke and cancel Brexit 33% or delay 12%.
> >
> > So No Deal 13% more popular than revoke and more popular than revoke and delay combined.
> >
> > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png
> >
> > The same poll also has Leave with No Deal 6% ahead of delay and hold EUref2 47% to 41%
> >
> > https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png
>
> Those are leading questions, delay clearly has negative connotations. If you ask should we rush into no deal or give parliament enough time to get a deal you would get a (slightly) different answer.
>
>
You might have done a year ago, if the Commons votes down the WA a 4th time despite having delayed Brexit to give more time to get a deal through when we should have left 2 months ago it is clear most voters now think we should just leave with No Deal as the current Commons clearly at that point has no interest in delivering Brexit despite Leave winning the referendum
* Basic social skills
* Sane, or only a little bit nuts
> May led Tories led by 2%, exactly the same margin Morrison's Coalition leads on 2 PP over Labour this morning with most votes counted.
>
>
>
> As Opinium this morning showed there has now been a clear shift in favour of No Deal, more voters prefer No Deal to either EUref2 or Revoke and extension combined
>
> I remain confused as to why that means Boris, who cannot deliver no deal, will be able to hold onto those leads to the point of thinking he can win an election off the back of it. We failed (again), vote for us?
If Boris takes over if May and her Deal fail again then it is simple, if he wins a majority on a manifesto commitment for No Deal then it is No Deal and maybe try and renegotiate with a technical solution replacing the backstop for a Canada style FTA after that election is won.
> At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
>
> It least monochrome is perennially fashionable...
Unfortunately they ran out of anything that would fit me before I got there. Only Medium and Small left now
If it’s going to be Remain or no deal , those pro EU will win eventually . No deal will see the Tories and the no deal fantasists shown up for what they are.
The UK will then forge closer links with the EU.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
> >
> > It least monochrome is perennially fashionable...
> Unfortunately they ran out of anything that would fit me before I got there. Only Medium and Small left now
>
You mean they are hoovering up the Fat-bastard Gammon voters?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > In the EU elections do we vote in order of preference? Or do we just vote for one party?
>
> Just one party.
Ah right thanks for confirming.
It's some time since I voted in the EU elections!
> At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
A rally with 40 people. We get that many for our branch singalong evenings.
Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > In the EU elections do we vote in order of preference? Or do we just vote for one party?
>
> Just one party.
Which is why it's not a good system, STV is much better.
If not my rates are very reasonable.
> Interesting as always from Cyclefree. An amusing sideline is guessing the author as you read - I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences and a little less caustic than Alastair, sharper but less judicious than David. All three are exceptionally good reads.
>
> We have got so used to thinking of the Tories as a rabble that I think we may be underestimating the bounce that a Not Mrs May leader will get early on, if they have the sense to make an inclusive and purposeful-sounding speech early on. A lot of people still don't feel all that strongly about EU membership but they really, really feel strongly that they are not getting clear leadership from anyone except bloody Farage. That bloc of voters will swing sharply to give a honeymoon to any of the main Tory candidates.
>
> There will then be a window of opportunity to Do Something. People will have little patience with MPs trying to stop them. The question is whether they have a clear idea of what they want to do.
"I usually separate Cyclefree about halfway through - shorter sentences.......'
Interesting. Of the three I would say cyclefree's sentences are the longest. Try this 59er. It's Not exactly James Elroy!
"When choosing a leader, who they are likely to pick as their key advisors/colleagues, how they work with them, their ability and willingness to take responsibility, to have their team’s back, to engender respect, trust and loyalty, to be worthy of that trust (from both colleagues and staff) will be at least as important as the leader’s individual qualities".
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > In the EU elections do we vote in order of preference? Or do we just vote for one party?
> >
> > Just one party.
>
> Which is why it's not a good system, STV is much better.
Was in order of preference in 1999 wasn't it? That one was entirely by post as well I think?
I'm sure I remember my grandmother receiving a huge ballot paper in the post with an assortment of different parties and being totally befuddled what she was supposed to do with it...
> > @Mauve said:
>
> > At the CUK rally now. Even for Cambridge it's full of very middle class people. Seems to be about 40 here so far. They're handing out free t-shirts too!
>
>
>
> A rally with 40 people. We get that many for our branch singalong evenings.
>
> Do you have a decent organist?
>
> If not my rates are very reasonable.
If you can play "The Red Flag" you're in with a chance!
> One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal .
>
> Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
They have enjoyed a hugely disproportionate level of influence for a couple of years. I doubt they will get the opportunity again.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed
> >
> > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
>
> The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
> One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal .
>
>
>
> Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
>
> The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism.
The UUP want a deal , they don’t want a no deal . If the DUP enable a no deal the unionists will have another party to go to . Lucid Talk have polled on Brexit in the past , the results are clear . Even Unionists by a large majority want a deal and would prefer a softer Brexit .
The agriculture sector in NI is much bigger than in the rest of the UK. That will be decimated with a no deal . Many farmers historically had supported the Unionists , they had a lot of donations from them .
So throwing them under a bus and the overall economy is going to cause Foster and co big problems .
P.S Oh, and let us not forget that their go to criticism of people criticisng them would be to fall back on lazy talk about people not understanding NI. Which only they do.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > One aspect that has been ignored. The DUP, although Sammy Wilson is a no deal nutjob a large majority of DUP voters do not want a no deal .
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Not sure enabling no deal is going to go down well in NI.
>
> >
>
> > The DUP do not care - their seats are almost all safe or only vulnerable to the UUP anyway, they have the extremist purity of people who know they have very little chance of being punished electorally so can concentrate on getting big pleased with themselves erections and acting like victims all the time, pretending they are the only ones who have any sense of patriotism.
>
>
>
> The UUP want a deal , they don’t want a no deal . If the DUP enable a no deal the unionists will have another party to go to . Lucid Talk have polled on Brexit in the past , the results are clear . Even Unionists by a large majority want a deal and would prefer a softer Brexit .
>
>
>
> The agriculture sector in NI is much bigger than in the rest of the UK. That will be decimated with a no deal . Many farmers historically had supported the Unionists , they had a lot of donations from them .
>
>
>
> So throwing them under a bus and the overall economy is going to cause Foster and co big problems .
>
> I hope so, but the chances of the DUP backing down before it bites them in the arse seems minimal. Even for politicians they seem entirely concerned with whether they will be embarrassed by changing direction, ti is all abotu them all the time.
I despise the DUP even more than the ERG.
To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots .
> If you can play "The Red Flag" you're in with a chance!
>
> I can. Only thing is I'm told I play it too fast.
Gets it over quicker...
>
> I despise the DUP even more than the ERG.
>
> To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots .
------------
From a game theory perspective I think you can make a case for their strategy being correct. If they'd been pro-Remain, English Brexiteers would have been more likely to support the backstop and believe the long-term solution was a united Ireland.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed
> > >
> > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
> > >
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
> >
> > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
>
> Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals.
They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance.
This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in.
Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.
> > @nico67 said:
> >
> > I despise the DUP even more than the ERG.
> >
> > To have pushed for Leave given the troubled history of NI was a disgrace . They really are a vile bunch of bigots .
> ------------
>
> From a game theory perspective I think you can make a case for their strategy being correct. If they'd been pro-Remain, English Brexiteers would have been more likely to support the backstop and believe the long-term solution was a united Ireland.
The DUP given they were needed to keep the Tories in power could have pushed for a softer Brexit . The DUP have betrayed the peace process and deserve to see a hard border down the Irish Sea which is exactly what they’ll get if the Tories don’t need them in the future.
> Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals.
>
> They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance.
>
> This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in.
>
> Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.<
++++
Indeed:
https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1130100918081523712
> > @another_richard said:
>
> > Political and media people tend to be middle class urban liberals.
> >
> > They therefore tend to know a lot of middle class urban liberals and consequently over-estimate their numbers and importance.
> >
> > This is compounded by the social media comfort zone many now reside in.
> >
> > Plus the disdain some of them have for people different to them who live in places they've never been to.<
>
> ++++
>
> Indeed:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1130100918081523712
LOL
Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite.
> Only Medium and Small left now
>
> That's rather a disrespectful way of referring to Chuka and Heidi.
Nothing medium or small about Chukas ego
https://twitter.com/jessieSwiet/status/1129684367838765056
An American journo interviews a couple of young Brits, presumably in N England, about Tommy Robinson. I like the first girl's casual but not inarticulate dismissal of him. She just laughs him off, as one should.
However the second young guy is disturbing. He thinks that "no criticism of Islam should be allowed". Full stop. None.
I hear a lot of this stuff from Generation Z/iGen. They either have a warped grasp of what Free Speech and the Enlightenment mean, and their importance, or they are the first post free speech generation, they don't want the Enlightenment, they actively support blasphemy laws.
That is, for me, very sad. The death of the West, almost by accident.
Always whining about the south . London pays more into the Treasury than it takes out .
He’s also a Lexiter whose intent on enabling a right wing capitalism on steroids Brexit . If he thinks this is going to help his constituents he’s deluded .
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed
>
> > >
>
> > > Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
>
> >
>
> > The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
>
>
>
> Indeed. But it seems like they often overestimate how many city-dwelling liberals there are, as we discussed yesterday, and tend to forget where the important marginals are located.
>
> Problem is the city dwelling liberals are all concentrated in their bubble and think everyone else thinks like them as they don’t engage outside their bubble and frankly sneer and look down on their supposed ‘inferiors’. Stupid, poorly educated, didn’t know what they were voting for and of course the final tactic when all else fails ‘racist’
>
> Far from being open minded many are the exact opposite.
You seem to have quite a chip on your shoulder about them, but populism has long thrived on envy.
> >
> > If it was refused it forces Labour into an outright remain position which might give the votes of the Labour leave MPs needed for the Tory deal, and make those MPs more vulnerable at the next election.
>
> Barely any Tory MPs will vote for any Deal with a referendum attached, nor will a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats either. As the indicative votes showed more voted for May's Deal last time than for Deal plus confirmatory referendum
Why would any MPs who want Brexit not vote for a referendum between Tory Brexit and Labour Brexit? They are virtually identical, apart from each party cannot be seen to support the other one.
>
> An American journo interviews a couple of young Brits, presumably in N England, about Tommy Robinson. I like the first girl's casual but not inarticulate dismissal of him. She just laughs him off, as one should.
>
> However the second young guy is disturbing. He thinks that "no criticism of Islam should be allowed". Full stop. None.
>
------
Listen again. He does not say those words.