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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest in the offing a look at what mak
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a CON leadership contest in the offing a look at what makes a good leader
So the race is on, with likely as many contenders as at your average Grand National. Will it be a dyed in the wool Leaver? A born again or a politically convenient one? Blessed by the ERG? A Remainer? Cabinet member or backbencher? And will it even matter given the government’s tiny majority, at the DUP’s pleasure?
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On hearing this news Boris Johnson slipped on a high-wire and shouted "Boom Bang-A-Bang" as he crossed the Thames.
Jeremy Corbyn indicated that Labour would set 392 tests and then attempt to be "All Kinds of Everything" to everyone.
Nigel Farage speaking at a rally in Nuremberg said Eurovision had finally met its "Waterloo" and Britain would no longer be "A Puppet On String", whilst Farage ally Donald Trump ripped off a White House interns dress and sang "Save All Your Kisses For Me".
Uncle Vince Cable rose from his bath chair whilst campaigning in Bedford and intoned the yellow peril will "Rise Like A Phoenix" and then hugged local LibDem bigwig Mike Smithson and cried out "Love Shine A Light".
Theresa May smiled and whispered "What's Another Year" for me as Prime Minister .....
Developing story ....
This might be a stupid bet, but imho if Labour are narrowly in third (19/21/24) in London on a poll which has them nationally in third place and 20% behind the leaders that's a sign they are probably winning London in almost every other poll. I like the 7/4 Ladbrokes now have on them winning the region.
We forget that while this is the second poll (albeit both the same pollster) putting the LDs 2nd most polls have Labour in the mid 20s and the LDs around 15%. Let's say the end result (nationally) is Brex 30%, Lab 22%, LD 17% then this poll would suggest Labour would probably win London - and my hypothetical results are factoring in some more Lab -> LD shift from the polling average.
> Meanwhile .... Following continuing humiliation from Europe, the Prime Minister intends to make "a big bold offer" to the House of Commons. The UK will BREXIT the Eurovision from next year after last nights indicative votes that we are shite.
>
> On hearing this news Boris Johnson slipped on a high-wire and shouted "Boom Bang-A-Bang" as he crossed the Thames.
>
> Jeremy Corbyn indicated that Labour would set 392 tests and then attempt to be "All Kinds of Everything" to everyone.
>
> Nigel Farage speaking at a rally in Nuremberg said Eurovision had finally met its "Waterloo" and Britain would no longer be "A Puppet On String", whilst Farage ally Donald Trump ripped off a White House interns dress and sang "Save All Your Kisses For Me".
>
> Uncle Vince Cable rose from his bath chair whilst campaigning in Bedford and intoned the yellow peril will "Rise Like A Phoenix" and then hugged local LibDem bigwig Mike Smithson and cried out "Love Shine A Light".
>
> Theresa May smiled and whispered "What's Another Year" for me as Prime Minister .....
>
> Developing story ....
Bolted on that the 'big bold offer' will occupy roughly the same position as running through a wheat field does on the naughtiness scale.
A classic understatement.
Much as Alastair might like lepidopterist, coleopterist might be more accurate, beetles being vastly more numerous, and significantly less attractive than butterflies.
> FPT
>
> This might be a stupid bet, but imho if Labour are narrowly in third (19/21/24) in London on a poll which has them nationally in third place and 20% behind the leaders that's a sign they are probably winning London in almost every other poll. I like the 7/4 Ladbrokes now have on them winning the region.
>
> We forget that while this is the second poll (albeit both the same pollster) putting the LDs 2nd most polls have Labour in the mid 20s and the LDs around 15%. Let's say the end result (nationally) is Brex 30%, Lab 22%, LD 17% then this poll would suggest Labour would probably win London - and my hypothetical results are factoring in some more Lab -> LD shift from the polling average.
Good shout, I got restricted to £20 @ 31-20, though I only asked for £25 - not ultra confident on a Labour win in London !
> The Hammond and May situation is a really odd one. IIRC the plan was that May would ditch Hammond after her triumph in 2017, but obviously that was not possible and so we know they are not a team and yet they just limp on together.
What's odd about that is that if she'd told the ERGers that she would sack Hammond if they had voted her way in MV3 then it might have done her more good than offering up her own resignation.
But the question for betting purposes is not who should replace Theresa May but who will replace her. Lazy pundits describe Conservative MPs as the most sophisticated electorate in the world but only because it is considered rude to point out this bunch of incompetent halfwits has elected the wrong candidate almost every time, including Mrs Thatcher who was presented as a safe protest vote rather than a viable contender. See Cyclefree's OP's second-last paragraph.
Lay Boris, wait to see who stands (potentially half the Cabinet and some ERG-supported ex-ministers), or back an outsider and hope to get lucky. Those are the three most obvious betting strategies. (Same for America.)
> “Perhaps a step back to understand what good leadership consists of might help them when marking their race card. Unlikely as this is to happen...”
> A classic understatement.
>
> Much as Alastair might like lepidopterist, coleopterist might be more accurate, beetles being vastly more numerous, and significantly less attractive than butterflies.
Beetles are useful, good and often beautiful.
Phthirapterist perhaps.
> “Perhaps a step back to understand what good leadership consists of might help them when marking their race card. Unlikely as this is to happen...”
> A classic understatement.
>
> Much as Alastair might like lepidopterist, coleopterist might be more accurate, beetles being vastly more numerous, and significantly less attractive than butterflies.
My niece is a bombologist. Since we are looking for something that will take flight in defiance of all apparent logic, perhaps I should consult her.
> Leadsom please. Thanks.
If the answer is Leadsom then clearly the question requires a pregnant pause as she clearly indicated in her last leadership challenge ....
> > @kle4 said:
> > The Hammond and May situation is a really odd one. IIRC the plan was that May would ditch Hammond after her triumph in 2017, but obviously that was not possible and so we know they are not a team and yet they just limp on together.
>
> What's odd about that is that if she'd told the ERGers that she would sack Hammond if they had voted her way in MV3 then it might have done her more good than offering up her own resignation.
Why should Hammond be an exception to the rule that Theresa May does not trust anyone whomsoever? That is her real character flaw.
> > @Nigelb said:
> > “Perhaps a step back to understand what good leadership consists of might help them when marking their race card. Unlikely as this is to happen...”
> > A classic understatement.
> >
> > Much as Alastair might like lepidopterist, coleopterist might be more accurate, beetles being vastly more numerous, and significantly less attractive than butterflies.
>
> My niece is a bombologist. Since we are looking for something that will take flight in defiance of all apparent logic, perhaps I should consult her.
Just the opposite: we need an expert in creatures who, in defiance of all apparent logic, refuse to take flight.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > Leadsom please. Thanks.
>
>
>
> If the answer is Leadsom then clearly the question requires a pregnant pause as she clearly indicated in her last leadership challenge ....
>
> I believe her labours will not be in vain.
It might see the birth of new age Tory ....
So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
> Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos). Enough said really. I don't see any other candidate with anything like that combination of qualifications. I don't see how Farage would attack her either.
Leadsom has improved enormously and must be in with a chance - the hustings will be interesting
> > @Nigelb said:
> > “Perhaps a step back to understand what good leadership consists of might help them when marking their race card. Unlikely as this is to happen...”
> > A classic understatement.
> >
> > Much as Alastair might like lepidopterist, coleopterist might be more accurate, beetles being vastly more numerous, and significantly less attractive than butterflies.
>
>
> Beetles are useful, good and often beautiful.
> Phthirapterist perhaps.
True, but Tennyson appropriated the louse insult long ago.
Perhaps we can compromise and say that the next leader will be a bug on the bum of Brexit ?
> Vincent Kompany announces he is to become player manager of Anderlecht
Isn't his father Mayor of a town nearby?
> Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos)...
If the last is true, then experience in cleaning up the organisation’s ordure ought to stand her in good stead.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1130051741343518720
Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
The standout bet must be <b>BERRY @ 100-1</b> with Skybet right now. Benita @ 33-1 is fair value perhaps.
Shaun Bailey's prices are way too short generally. Khan still a decent bet at 2-5 or so.
Presently the mood for "IT" is strong - Nige, Donald, Jezza, BoJo etc ...
> Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
The Tories aren't even bothering delivering, they've thrown in the towel for this one.
Tories just need to grit their teeth and hope for a modest loyalty/sympathy vote. At least if they pass Brexit the slate will be wiped clean.
> Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
Apart from free owls ... NO .
> Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
Probably not much - circa 40% of those who intend voting are likely to have already done so.
An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> Bugger, Nicola has received the black spot.
>
> https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1130051741343518720
Dan has just realised she is not wee Jimmy Krankee after all
> Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
>
> So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
> Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
It's a great poll for the SNP, indicates ~ 9 gains or so for the next GE.
On Thursday the polling suggests a majority of 2017 Tory voters will vote Brexit Party and already some GE polls are showing the Brexit Party over 20%, if that is not addressed soon it could prove fatal.
> > @JackW said:
> > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
> >
> > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
>
> To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
>
> The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
>
> Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
Possibly, possibly equally Stewart would lead the Tories to third place behind not only Corbyn Labour but the Brexit Party too. If the WA is passed the focus will move to the future Brexit and the Tories will want a hard Brexiteer for that to agree a FTA and no more, if the WA is not passed Tories will want a No Dealer rather than one who will agree further extension or even revoke.
Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
> Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
You'll be amazed that Ruth has taken a radical policy leap into the unknown this am.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1130059250250768384
> "Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed
>
> Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland"
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/winning-the-wealthy-and-losing-the-workers-how-labors-victorian-vote-transformed
The Australian election was a reflection of what is happening across the western world, centre left parties losing skilled working class voters to conservatives but winning more graduate professionals from conservatives
Holyrood List (changes vs 24th of April);
SNP - 37% (nc)
Con - 19% (-3)
Lab - 18% (-1)
LD - 8% (+1)
Grn - 7% (nc)
Brex - 6% (+2)
Constituency;
SNP - 41% (+1)
Con - 20% (-1)
Lab - 18% (-2)
LD - 8% (+2)
Brex - 7% (+2)
Grn - 3% (nc)
ChUK and UKIP figs tbc.
> > @malcolmg said:
> > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
> So SNP no higher than 2017 then
Yes, the SNP vote won't change much. If the opponents are more muddied though it is good news for them.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
> > >
> > > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
> >
> > To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
> >
> > The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
> >
> > Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
>
> Possibly, possibly equally Stewart would lead the Tories to third place behind not only Corbyn Labour but the Brexit Party too. If the WA is passed the focus will move to the future Brexit and the Tories will want a hard Brexiteer for that to agree a FTA and no more, if the WA is not passed Tories will want a No Dealer rather than one who will agree further extension or even revoke.
>
> Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
I think you significantly underestimate the number of people:
- would take any Brexit rather than a particular flavour but want it done
- people who voted remain but can live with a deal
- people who are voting Labour but hate Corbyn as feel they have no alternative
I think you significantly overestimate the ability of Boris or one of the ERG to deliver any Brexit, there is no obvious approach that will enable them to deliver their flavour of hard Brexit and they are so tied to that flavour they cannot deliver anything else.
> Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
>
On Marr, yes, I agree. And so did Jeremy Corbyn who was on before him. Both of them were making the same essential point that the continually barked "Are you Remain or are you Leave?" question is infantile and becoming a barrier to discussing a sensible way forward.
Couple of grown ups in the room - albeit not in this case the same room since Jez was in Liverpool.
> Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment
>
> I fear there are far fewer of those type of people than you suppose.
They may not make themselves heard on social media but talking to people in real life there are plenty.
> > @malcolmg said:
> > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
> It's a great poll for the SNP, indicates ~ 9 gains or so for the next GE.
It is a good poll for the SNP , bot since 2015 the party has underperformed its poll ratings at actual elections pretty consistently.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
>
> Probably not much - circa 40% of those who intend voting are likely to have already done so.
I suspect that in these days of significant postal voting last minute stunts are more likely to be counter-productive than useful.
Even free owls or unicorn rides.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > @JackW said:
>
> > > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
>
> > >
>
> > > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
>
> >
>
> > To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
>
> >
>
> > The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
>
> >
>
> > Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
>
>
>
> Possibly, possibly equally Stewart would lead the Tories to third place behind not only Corbyn Labour but the Brexit Party too. If the WA is passed the focus will move to the future Brexit and the Tories will want a hard Brexiteer for that to agree a FTA and no more, if the WA is not passed Tories will want a No Dealer rather than one who will agree further extension or even revoke.
>
>
>
> Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
>
> Oh Dear , what a dearth of talent , shows what a busted flush the Tories really are. You could randomly pick anyone off the street and they would be a titan compared to these no marks.
Indeed. When Leadsom was suggested, my first thought was could do worse.
Which doesn't say much.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos)...
>
>
>
> If the last is true, then experience in cleaning up the organisation’s ordure ought to stand her in good stead.
>
>
I am surprised to be saying this but think Leadsom is the best of the confirmed leavers, and has significantly more chance of getting Brexit delivered than Boris or Raab.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Vincent Kompany announces he is to become player manager of Anderlecht
>
> Isn't his father Mayor of a town nearby?
Yes - Mayor of Ganshoren since 2018
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > Here's why I think Leadsom. Committed Brexiter but worked within the Government to see the result through, not a wrecker. Comes over very well in interviews, and in speeches, has a sense of humour. Has performed well in each role that she has been given. Understands business having worked in the corporate banking sector (although most here claim she actually cleaned the loos)...
>
>
>
> If the last is true, then experience in cleaning up the organisation’s ordure ought to stand her in good stead.
>
>
The other thing about Leadsom is that she is a mother - something that Johnson and Raab cannot match
"He'd be the first British PM with a wig since Spencer Perceval."
..........................................................................................
Poll spike in Bedford ?!?
"The other thing about Leadsom is that she is a mother - something that Johnson and Raab cannot match"
Chortle ....
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
>
> > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
>
>
> So SNP no higher than 2017 then
>
> LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @JackW said:
> > > > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
> > > >
> > > > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
> > >
> > > To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
> > >
> > > The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
> > >
> > > Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
> >
> > Possibly, possibly equally Stewart would lead the Tories to third place behind not only Corbyn Labour but the Brexit Party too. If the WA is passed the focus will move to the future Brexit and the Tories will want a hard Brexiteer for that to agree a FTA and no more, if the WA is not passed Tories will want a No Dealer rather than one who will agree further extension or even revoke.
> >
> > Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
>
> I think you significantly underestimate the number of people:
>
> - would take any Brexit rather than a particular flavour but want it done
> - people who voted remain but can live with a deal
> - people who are voting Labour but hate Corbyn as feel they have no alternative
>
> I think you significantly overestimate the ability of Boris or one of the ERG to deliver any Brexit, there is no obvious approach that will enable them to deliver their flavour of hard Brexit and they are so tied to that flavour they cannot deliver anything else.
Opinium today has more voters backing No Deal over further extension and revoke combined and more voters backing No Deal over EUref2.
If the Withdrawal Agreement fails again (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-102.png
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/VI-14-05-19-Chart-101.png
> Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now.
https://twitter.com/gregmoodie
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > > @malcolmg said:
>
> >
>
> > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
>
> >
>
> > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
>
> >
>
> > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
>
>
>
> Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
>
> Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
To be honest Malc I would vote for the SNP if I still lived in Scotland but would reject Independence
>
> I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
>
--------
But how would Daniel Hannan make his YouTube videos???
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > > @malcolmg said:
>
> >
>
> > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
>
> >
>
> > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
>
> >
>
> > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
>
>
>
> Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
>
> Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP
> > @Recidivist said:
> > Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
>
> I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
>
> For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now.
The die is cast now - too late to stop the collapse in both main parties votes on thursday
The public are not sovereign or the decision makers, MPs are. They like neither No Deal nor Boris, the longer the Tories fail to deliver Brexit the better it is for Corbyn, there is very little if any, chance that this parliament will ever No Deal regardless of the wishes of the PM or public. Boris makes that even harder.
So that leaves attempting a general election when the Tories are polling 20% and not delivering Brexit and a chaotic, divided party. Good luck with that.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
>
> > > > > @JackW said:
>
> > > > > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
>
> > > >
>
> > > > To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
>
> > >
>
> > > Possn revoke.
>
> > >
>
> > > Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
>
> >
>
> > I think you significantly underestimate the number of people:
>
> >
>
> > - would take any Brexit rather than a particular flavour but want it done
>
> > - people who voted remain but can live with a deal
>
> > - people who are voting Labour but hate Corbyn as feel they have no alternative
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal
>
> When it fails miserably , yet again for the fourth time.
>
> I don't think it will even come to that. After the annihilation in the Euros May will be made to go or say exactly when she is going and there won't be any point to bringing for the the bill for a vote.
You would think so but this is TM we are talking about
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> >
> > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> >
> >
> >
> > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> >
> > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
>
> Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
That is a non sequitur. Not all Brexit Party voters would have the Tories as second preferences. Many are likely to prefer Labour or the SNP.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Recidivist said:
> > > Let's assume for a moment that the polls are right and both main parties are heading for major humiliation on Thursday. Is there anything that either can do in the next couple of days to turn their fortunes around?
> >
> > I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
> >
> > For Labour a move to back Remain and/or a second referendum would probably have won them more support if they'd made the move at the start of the campaign. Don't think it would do them much good now.
>
> The die is cast now - too late to stop the collapse in both main parties votes on thursday
The expected Brexit vote, which is one for free owls, is quite alarming though. It is, surely, solely and simply to ensure Nigel Farage can continue to draw an income as an MEP.
7/4 from 1/2 in three days???
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> >
> > I've suggested it a few times, but I think that a pledge from the Tories that their MEPs would not sit in the European Parliament, and would not draw their salaries or allowances, because we've voted to leave, would be eye-catching and have the potential to put Farage and his band of troughers on the defensive.
> >
> --------
> But how would Daniel Hannan make his YouTube videos???
-------
I think Patreon is the popular crowd-funding platform for those who find a PayPal button déclassé.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > > > > > @JackW said:
> >
> > > > > > Rory Stewart doing a masterclass in sensible, reasoned politics.
> >
> > > > > >
> >
> > > > > > So no chance to become Conservative leader ....
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > To those tories who think that it is worth writing off the 64% of the public who do not think Boris is PM material, there are many, many of us who would be quite happy voting for Stewart, especially if the alternatives are Corbyn and Farage.
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > The ceiling for Boris is much lower than it is for Stewart, for Boris it is probably low enough that even if he gets most seats a Tory majority is unlikely and a significant majority looking implausible.
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > Given the dearth of options for people who believe in reason and compromise at the moment, Stewart would have a realistic chance of 40%+ and a landslide if he can deliver any Brexit.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Possn revoke.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Stewart is more appealing than Hunt or Javid for example but the point remains if the Tories are to beat Corbyn they have to get the Leave coalition back in their tent, far more 2017 Tories have defected to the Brexit Party than LD or Labour Remainers would consider voting for a Stewart led Tory Party
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think you significantly underestimate the number of people:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > - would take any Brexit rather than a particular flavour but want it done
> >
> > > - people who voted remain but can live with a deal
> >
> > > - people who are voting Labour but hate Corbyn as feel they have no alternative
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > If the Withdrawal Agreement fails (and Boris to his credit did vote for it last time to avoid further extension) then the mood of the public will be for No Deal
> >
> > When it fails miserably , yet again for the fourth time.
> >
> > I don't think it will even come to that. After the annihilation in the Euros May will be made to go or say exactly when she is going and there won't be any point to bringing for the the bill for a vote.
>
> You would think so but this is TM we are talking about
Sometimes one can see why she could make common cause with Arlene. Both obdurate.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > >
> > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
> > >
> > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
> > >
> > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
> >
> > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
>
> That is a non sequitur. Not all Brexit Party voters would have the Tories as second preferences. Many are likely to prefer Labour or the SNP.
A handful maybe but we don't have second preferences for either Westminster, European or Holyrood elections thanks to the rejection of AV in the 2011 referendum so that is largely irrelevant.
If we were Australia which has AV preferences would be relevant but we do not.
The movement as the figures show is clearly almost entirely Tory to Brexit Party and Labour to LD and Green given the SNP are virtually unchanged on 2017 regardless of whether a handful of Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party or a handful of Tory voters are now voting LD
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > > @malcolmg said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @malcolmg said:
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > Tory surge still going ahead, return of the prodigal leader has gone down well
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > > An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April); SNP - 38% (nc) Labour - 19% (-2) Conservative - 18% (-4) Lib Dem - 10% (+4) Brexit - 9% (+4) Green - 3% (+1) Change UK - 2% (-1) UKIP - 1% (-1)
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > So SNP no higher than 2017 then
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > LOL, only double their nearest rival after 12 years in power. How does that compare with the Tories record again.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Add the Tories and Brexit Party you get to 27% so virtually identical to 2017 too. The movement since then in Scotland as elsewhere is Tory to Brexit Party NOT Tory to SNP with Labour also seeing losses to the LDs and Greens but again NOT the nationalists
>
> >
>
> > Double their nearest rival after 12 years in power, even Tory blindness cannot spin that one away
>
>
>
> Barely more than a third of Scottish voters for the SNP, still 12% less than they got even in 2015 and 7% less than Yes got in 2014. The momentum at the moment is with the Brexit Party and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens NOT the SNP
>
> Oh Dear, there none those blind as those that will not see. I will go talk to a brick and get more sense out of it.
I agree Malc.
Scotland is rock solid SNP and in an early GE labour and conservatives would be wiped out.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1130070648909389824?s=21
> https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1130066050635173888
That, of course, was one of Wilson's genius moments. He allowed Cabinet members to campaign for their pro-or anti- European beliefs, so long as they held together on Labours local....i.e. British......policies.
> Just noticed the Conservative Annual Conference is on the 29th September and maybe it is appropriate that my wife and I will be 'all at sea' sailing back from the US and Canada to Southampton
>
> On the QM2? Enjoy!
No - on Sapphire Princess - 24 days to Nova Scotia, Canada, and New England and New York. My wife and I have long wanted to sail into New York (have been by plane) and I bought her this cruise for her 80th birthday present a few weeks after we return. We have crossed the Atlantic from Greenland to Southampton previously but not from the US