> @tlg86 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @tlg86 said: > > > Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish. > > > > And ours. > > Well, the juries recognized that our's was rubbish too. Indeed. Had a couple of hours to kill in Newcastle yesterday. Heard at least 3 street musicians who would have been more original and memorable. The bland X Factor bollocks lowest common denominator stuff just doesn't work. Iceland went all in. Couldn't be worse. There may be a metaphor for the big Parties 2 in there..
> @AndyJS said: > > @Byronic said: > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were.
Ours was a pretty forgettable song with no gimmick or staging, just phoned in.
> @Byronic said: > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> @AndyJS said: > > @Byronic said: > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were. <
+++++
Maybe. I confess I didn't watch, I haven't watched in years. The camp-fest has become boring. What was once amusingly transgressive and sly, is now endlessly self-aware and narcissistically prolonged. It reminds me of the Oscar ceremonies: also increasingly unwatchable and elongated.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Byronic said: > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
> @Byronic said: > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex.
> @Jonathan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
We could put up the greatest song in the history of pop music and still lose at the moment, the last time we won was Katrina and the Waves in 1997 but that was when Blair had just got in and we were a bit more popular with Europeans and 'Cool Britannia' was at its height
> @HYUFD said: > > @Byronic said: > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex. <
++++
We have a superiority complex: English exceptionalism. Surely you understand that basic fact. It explains Brexit,
Australia is very different in this respect, and yearns to be nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > > > Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby > > We could put up the greatest song in the history of pop music and still lose at the moment, the last time we won was Katrina and the Waves in 1997 but that was when Blair had just got in and we were a bit more popular with Europeans and 'Cool Britannia' was at its height
Not sure I agree. How many decent songs have we put up since then? If we did put up a really good one and still came near the bottom then I reckon that would be valid. Right now it is unproven.
Should it? A 6% gap between Tory support amongst the oldest and youngest is far better than they did at the last general election. OK, the Brexit Party leads them in every age category (and indeed leads Labour in all but 3) but the Tory Party on Thursday may be smaller but it will be equally unpopular across the ages!!
> @Byronic said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex. < > > ++++ > > We have a superiority complex: English exceptionalism. Surely you understand that basic fact. It explains Brexit, > > Australia is very different in this respect, and yearns to be nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
No, Australia merely loves camp!
You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.
> @Byronic said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were. < > > +++++ > > Maybe. I confess I didn't watch, I haven't watched in years. The camp-fest has become boring. What was once amusingly transgressive and sly, is now endlessly self-aware and narcissistically prolonged. It reminds me of the Oscar ceremonies: also increasingly unwatchable and elongated. > >
> @Foxy said: e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision. > > No, Australia merely loves camp! > > You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.<
++++++
I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China.
Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too. > > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522?s=19 > > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> >
> > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum!
I predict Ruth Davidson will have the same sudden epiphany.
Remainer Tory opposition to Boris will crumble, as they look at the terrible triple threat of Farage, Corbyn and the resurgent Lib Dems. Boris is going to win. He will be PM.
> @AndyJS said: > O/T > > Well this is interesting regarding the Australian election. > > https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00+10:00&max-results=7 > > <i>"A couple of days ago I made the following statement: > > I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have wondered about the likelihood of a polling failure (in either direction). Has the under-dispersion come about randomly (unlikely but not impossible). Or is it an artefact of some process, such as online polling? Herding? Pollster self-censorship? Or some other process I have not identified?"</i>
Hmm. Well spotted. I, too was unconvinced. I did predict a Labor minority, but said that even that might turn on a couple of close seats. That much was based on the lack of any visible 8 or 9 point Labour leads. And the lack of LNP leads. Which one would expect given the averages. Unfortunately, I had been busy and failed to pay enough attention till too late, and missed the 10-1. Chapeau, sir.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @Foxy said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > > > > > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522 > > > > > > > > > > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries. > > > > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last > > We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum!
So despite being the 3rd largest nation in Europe, the best we have done in the last 3 years post Brexit is 15th, tonight we were last, says it all!
We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
We got 111 points, 15th place in 2017
Quite right.
Perhaps the European public didn’t give Germany any votes as they are staying in the EU. Ireland didn’t even make the final.
We have generally been near the bottom of the table every year for the last 15 years with one or two exceptions. As you have pointed out one of our best scores in recent years was in the first contest post the referendum.
If the Netherlands can win with the right song so can we - they went for years without even getting out of the semis!
And in any case nearly half the countries participating aren’t even in the EU anyway - and couldn’t care less about Brexit. Eurovision reminds us that the EU isn’t Europe!!
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> > >
>
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
>
> > >
>
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> >
>
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
>
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
> We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum!
So despite being the 3rd largest nation in Europe, the best we have done in the last 3 years post Brexit is 15th, tonight we were last, says it all!
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > > > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too. > > > > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522?s=19 > > > > > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries. > > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last >
The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries either.
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> > >
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> > >
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> >
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries
either.
Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
> > > > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries. > > > > > > > > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last > > > > We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum! > > So despite being the 3rd largest nation in Europe, the best we have done in the last 3 years post Brexit is 15th, tonight we were last, says it all! <
+++++++++++++++
COUGH.
I know this is willy-waving, but by GDP Britain is the SECOND largest nation in the EU (and indeed Europe, as we are richer than Russia, too).
By population, within the EU, we are also 2nd, at 67m, unless you allow the French to count all their overseas territories (dubious unless they are actual departements), then it gets more confusing.
> @Byronic said: > > @Foxy said: > e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision. > > > > No, Australia merely loves camp! > > > > You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.< > > ++++++ > > I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China. > > Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition.
I know Australia well too, having lived and worked there, with lots of family there too.
Australia is a diverse place, and Muriels Wedding, Romper Stomper and Wake in Fright are accurate depictions of that diversity, and very unlike each other. It very much depends, like Britain or USA, who you mix with.
That's genuinely fascinating. So Britain's plummet in the Eurovision rankings is much more a function of eurovision's expansion into Eastern Europe and beyond, rather than Brexit. Once we allowed Russia to vote for Serbia, and Moldova for Romania, it was all over.
Pity Ireland, who once won it every year, who now cannot even make the final, as they are too small and poor.
There is a geopolitical lesson here, I'm just not sure what it is.
> @Byronic said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017: > > > > https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848 < > > +++++++++ > > That's genuinely fascinating. So Britain's plummet in the Eurovision rankings is much more a function of eurovision's expansion into Eastern Europe and beyond, rather than Brexit. Once we allowed Russia to vote for Serbia, and Moldova for Romania, it was all over. > > Pity Ireland, who once won it every year, who now cannot even make the final, as they are too small and poor. > > There is a geopolitical lesson here, I'm just not sure what it is.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit. > > > > > > > > > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em. > > > > > > > > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too. > > > > > > > > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans > > > > > > > > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522 > > > > > > > > > > > > > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries. > > > > > > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last > > > > > > > The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties. > > > > I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries > > either. > > Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017: > > https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
That chart needs to be adjusted for the number of participants. There were not 41 of these until recently, and the original contest was only a dozen or so. The drop in our performance came when more countries entered.
I suspect the North Macedonian broadcaster breathed a sigh of relief with the public votes!
> @justin124 said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968 > > > > > > But only for EU elections! > > > > Really? > > > > We saw big swings in the Locals. > > > > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too. > > The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE!
Well, we will have to wait and see.
In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason.
> @dixiedean said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > LDEM 20% > > > GRN 12% > > > CON 9% > > > LAB 8% > > > CUK 4% > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
> @Foxy said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968 > > > > > > > > But only for EU elections! > > > > > > Really? > > > > > > We saw big swings in the Locals. > > > > > > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too. > > > > The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE! > > Well, we will have to wait and see. > > In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason.
But to repeat a point I have made earlier, turnout is likely to be abysmal next week - most voters will stay at home. As for people getting the taste for voting for a different party , little evidence that paid much in the way of dividends for the LDs in 2017. Many of those who bother to vote have a pretty frivolous attitude to EU elections.
> @ah009 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > > LDEM 20% > > > > GRN 12% > > > > CON 9% > > > > LAB 8% > > > > CUK 4% > > > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules... > > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
I do very much enjoy the fact that there is one brexit party and three remain parties.
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> > >
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> > >
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> >
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries
either.
Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
When did EuroVision change the rules to allow people to sing in languages other than their own? That “robbed” the UK (and Ireland) of a non-trivial competitive advantage.
> @Foxy said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @Foxy said: > > e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision. > > > > > > No, Australia merely loves camp! > > > > > > You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.< > > > > ++++++ > > > > I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China. > > > > Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition. > > I know Australia well too, having lived and worked there, with lots of family there too. > > Australia is a diverse place, and Muriels Wedding, Romper Stomper and Wake in Fright are accurate depictions of that diversity, and very unlike each other. It very much depends, like Britain or USA, who you mix with.
Nothing quite like hunting for a good present for an 8 year old, finally finding one (a Roman catapult kit), and then having it delivered only to discover the box has 14+ plastered all over it.
*sighs*
Humbug.
Also, vaguely on topic, May's idiotic prevarication temporarily retained support from both sides but when a decision had to be made she held onto almost no-one. Turns out governing is to choose and, to paraphrase the knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, she has chosen poorly.
The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
I wonder if there will be the same calls to kick him out as there have been from some quarters in response to the Tories saying they will vote for the Brexit Party? Or is that another sign of the hypocrisy of the Remain faction in the Tory party?
> @ah009 said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > > LDEM 20% > > > > GRN 12% > > > > CON 9% > > > > LAB 8% > > > > CUK 4% > > > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules... > > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
Terrible strategy.
Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
Terrible strategy.
Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
Beg to disagree on both counts...
I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
> @IanB2 said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > > > LDEM 20% > > > > > GRN 12% > > > > > CON 9% > > > > > LAB 8% > > > > > CUK 4% > > > > > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > > > > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules... > > > > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country. > > And, increasingly, Labour also.
Won't somebody think of poor Adonis? Labour's number 2.
Mr. Pointer, I should point out that I'm not actually using my divine powers to determine the political positions of the electorate.
I permit free will.
Of course, this necessarily requires the allowance of evil deeds, but the alternative is a toy world without freedom of choice, so, having contemplated the arguments, I chose freedom.
> > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > >
> > > > BXP 42%
> > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > GRN 12%
> > > > CON 9%
> > > > LAB 8%
> > > > CUK 4%
> > >
> > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > >
> > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> >
> > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
>
> Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> > >
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries
either.
Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
When did EuroVision change the rules to allow people to sing in languages other than their own? That “robbed” the UK (and Ireland) of a non-trivial competitive advantage.
?? Waterloo in 1974 was sung by Abba in a language other than their own.
> > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > > >
> > > > > BXP 42%
> > > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > > GRN 12%
> > > > > CON 9%
> > > > > LAB 8%
> > > > > CUK 4%
> > > >
> > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > > >
> > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> > >
> > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
> >
> > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
>
> And, increasingly, Labour also.
Won't somebody think of poor Adonis? Labour's number 2.
Mwahahahahaha!
That’s going to be very funny. Let’s just say there will be a lot of high profile losses across the country from the established parties. Tories could also be down to a handful, with a dozen current MEPs going down.
So next Sunday’s schedule: Monaco Grand Prix, Indianapolis 500, EU election count.
The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
Terrible strategy.
Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
Beg to disagree on both counts...
I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver.
I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
> @Byronic said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1129823250287140866<; > > +++++++ > > I predict Ruth Davidson will have the same sudden epiphany. > > Remainer Tory opposition to Boris will crumble, as they look at the terrible triple threat of Farage, Corbyn and the resurgent Lib Dems. Boris is going to win. He will be PM.
Perhaps they know that at the 11th hour he will press the "revoke" button to avoid no deal.
> @justin124 said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968 > > > > > > > > > > But only for EU elections! > > > > > > > > Really? > > > > > > > > We saw big swings in the Locals. > > > > > > > > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too. > > > > > > The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE! > > > > Well, we will have to wait and see. > > > > In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason. > > But to repeat a point I have made earlier, turnout is likely to be abysmal next week - most voters will stay at home. As for people getting the taste for voting for a different party , little evidence that paid much in the way of dividends for the LDs in 2017. Many of those who bother to vote have a pretty frivolous attitude to EU elections.
Differential turnout will be striking. I have yet to meet a Brexiter or Tory who will not be voting. LDs who are supposedly in the majority here are going to stay at home.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @ah009 said: > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > > > > LDEM 20% > > > > > > GRN 12% > > > > > > CON 9% > > > > > > LAB 8% > > > > > > CUK 4% > > > > > > > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > > > > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > > > > > > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules... > > > > > > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country. > > > > And, increasingly, Labour also. > > Aren't we 2nd in every poll outside of YouGov?
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
> @Sandpit said: > The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour. > > Terrible strategy. > > Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks. > > At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%. > > > Beg to disagree on both counts... > > I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy. > > And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities! > > I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver. > > I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
Effectively we have no government at present.
Would be an improvement in many significant ways if it wasn't for all these looming deadlines and decision points.
> I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver.
>
> I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
Effectively we have no government at present.
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
If as every poll outside of YouGov indicates we finish second with 20 something points then it doesn't really seem like we are following the Conservatives in spectacular collapse, that is pretty much our performance in the last European election.
I am enjoying your sudden change to Boris supporter.
Edit: Panelbase for example has us joint second in Scotland.
I realise you may like the YouGov polls but there is no reason to accept they are right and other polls are wrong unless you have some extra information.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
> @Foxy said: > > @Sandpit said: > > The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour. > > > > Terrible strategy. > > > > Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks. > > > > At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%. > > > > > > Beg to disagree on both counts... > > > > I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy. > > > > And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities! > > > > I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver. > > > > I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs). > > No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed. > > Effectively we have no government at present.
Not sure that your thoughts are more 'better the devil you know' but she has to go and I expect the cabinet will force her out if necessary.
As a long term TM supporter I accept the time is now and she needs to leave with some dignity
As far as her legacy is concerned she may actually be proved right in so far as her deal was and remains the best brexit but she was utterly lousy at selling it
Comments
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.
> >
> > And ours.
>
> Well, the juries recognized that our's was rubbish too.
Indeed. Had a couple of hours to kill in Newcastle yesterday. Heard at least 3 street musicians who would have been more original and memorable. The bland X Factor bollocks lowest common denominator stuff just doesn't work. Iceland went all in. Couldn't be worse.
There may be a metaphor for the big Parties 2 in there..
> > @Byronic said:
> > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> >
> > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were.
Ours was a pretty forgettable song with no gimmick or staging, just phoned in.
In 1981 we had a decent song.
> We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> > @Byronic said:
> > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> >
> > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were. <
+++++
Maybe. I confess I didn't watch, I haven't watched in years. The camp-fest has become boring. What was once amusingly transgressive and sly, is now endlessly self-aware and narcissistically prolonged. It reminds me of the Oscar ceremonies: also increasingly unwatchable and elongated.
> > @Byronic said:
> > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> >
> > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
>
> Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
> We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex.
> Brexit Party and Plaid take first and second spot in Wales respectively https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1129867900645457921?s=20
Since I'm on a D'Hondt trip tonight, that is 2 Brexit, 1PC and 1 Labour...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> >
> > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
We could put up the greatest song in the history of pop music and still lose at the moment, the last time we won was Katrina and the Waves in 1997 but that was when Blair had just got in and we were a bit more popular with Europeans and 'Cool Britannia' was at its height
> > @Byronic said:
> > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> >
> > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
>
> Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522?s=19
> > @Byronic said:
> > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> >
> > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex. <
++++
We have a superiority complex: English exceptionalism. Surely you understand that basic fact. It explains Brexit,
Australia is very different in this respect, and yearns to be nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> This should terrify the Tories
>
> https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
>
Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> > >
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> > >
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> >
> > Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
>
> We could put up the greatest song in the history of pop music and still lose at the moment, the last time we won was Katrina and the Waves in 1997 but that was when Blair had just got in and we were a bit more popular with Europeans and 'Cool Britannia' was at its height
Not sure I agree. How many decent songs have we put up since then? If we did put up a really good one and still came near the bottom then I reckon that would be valid. Right now it is unproven.
> This should terrify the Tories
>
> https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
>
<
+++++
It should terrify Labour, too. They are no longer the automatic choice of young people (who always become increasingly rightwing).
> This should terrify the Tories
>
> https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
>
Should it? A 6% gap between Tory support amongst the oldest and youngest is far better than they did at the last general election. OK, the Brexit Party leads them in every age category (and indeed leads Labour in all but 3) but the Tory Party on Thursday may be smaller but it will be equally unpopular across the ages!!
> > @Jonathan said:
> > This should terrify the Tories
> >
> > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> >
>
> Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
>
>
Who the Tories have apparently lost.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > Australia doesn’t have the same inferiority complex. <
>
> ++++
>
> We have a superiority complex: English exceptionalism. Surely you understand that basic fact. It explains Brexit,
>
> Australia is very different in this respect, and yearns to be nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
No, Australia merely loves camp!
You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > This should terrify the Tories
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> > >
> >
> > Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> >
> >
>
> Who the Tories have apparently lost.
True, but largely because they have lost everyone!
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were. <
>
> +++++
>
> Maybe. I confess I didn't watch, I haven't watched in years. The camp-fest has become boring. What was once amusingly transgressive and sly, is now endlessly self-aware and narcissistically prolonged. It reminds me of the Oscar ceremonies: also increasingly unwatchable and elongated.
>
>
I agree, I don't usually watch it these days.
e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
>
> No, Australia merely loves camp!
>
> You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.<
++++++
I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China.
Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> >
> > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
>
> https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522?s=19
>
>
That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
> https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1129823250287140866<;
+++++++
I predict Ruth Davidson will have the same sudden epiphany.
Remainer Tory opposition to Boris will crumble, as they look at the terrible triple threat of Farage, Corbyn and the resurgent Lib Dems. Boris is going to win. He will be PM.
> O/T
>
> Well this is interesting regarding the Australian election.
>
> https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00+10:00&max-results=7
>
> <i>"A couple of days ago I made the following statement:
>
> I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have wondered about the likelihood of a polling failure (in either direction). Has the under-dispersion come about randomly (unlikely but not impossible). Or is it an artefact of some process, such as online polling? Herding? Pollster self-censorship? Or some other process I have not identified?"</i>
Hmm. Well spotted. I, too was unconvinced. I did predict a Labor minority, but said that even that might turn on a couple of close seats. That much was based on the lack of any visible 8 or 9 point Labour leads. And the lack of LNP leads. Which one would expect given the averages. Unfortunately, I had been busy and failed to pay enough attention till too late, and missed the 10-1.
Chapeau, sir.
> What's with there being so many independent candidates in London constituency?
Extinction Rebellion didn't understand how the voting system worked, and aren;'t a party, so put up six independents, four of them in London.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @Byronic said:
>
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> > >
>
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
>
> > >
>
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> >
>
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
>
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
> We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum!
So despite being the 3rd largest nation in Europe, the best we have done in the last 3 years post Brexit is 15th, tonight we were last, says it all!
Perhaps the European public didn’t give Germany any votes as they are staying in the EU. Ireland didn’t even make the final.
We have generally been near the bottom of the table every year for the last 15 years with one or two exceptions. As you have pointed out one of our best scores in recent years was in the first contest post the referendum.
If the Netherlands can win with the right song so can we - they went for years without even getting out of the semis!
And in any case nearly half the countries participating aren’t even in the EU anyway - and couldn’t care less about Brexit. Eurovision reminds us that the EU isn’t Europe!!
Indonesia is a functioning democracy with a free press and has been for two decades.
The EIU ranks it as a 'flawed democracy' - much like some Eastern European countries and EU members.
https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > > >
> > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> > >
> > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> > >
> > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
> >
> > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522?s=19
> >
> >
> That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
> With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries
either.
Conservatives: 25
Labour: 25
Brexit Party: 18
Lib Dems: 16
Greens: 7
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/16/voting-intention-conservatives-25-labour-25-13-14-
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
> >
> > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
> >
> >
> >
> > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
> >
> > We came 15th (mid-table) in 2017, the year after the referendum!
>
> So despite being the 3rd largest nation in Europe, the best we have done in the last 3 years post Brexit is 15th, tonight we were last, says it all! <
+++++++++++++++
COUGH.
I know this is willy-waving, but by GDP Britain is the SECOND largest nation in the EU (and indeed Europe, as we are richer than Russia, too).
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
By population, within the EU, we are also 2nd, at 67m, unless you allow the French to count all their overseas territories (dubious unless they are actual departements), then it gets more confusing.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
> > @Foxy said:
> e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
> >
> > No, Australia merely loves camp!
> >
> > You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.<
>
> ++++++
>
> I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China.
>
> Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition.
I know Australia well too, having lived and worked there, with lots of family there too.
Australia is a diverse place, and Muriels Wedding, Romper Stomper and Wake in Fright are accurate depictions of that diversity, and very unlike each other. It very much depends, like Britain or USA, who you mix with.
>
> Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
>
> https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848 <
+++++++++
That's genuinely fascinating. So Britain's plummet in the Eurovision rankings is much more a function of eurovision's expansion into Eastern Europe and beyond, rather than Brexit. Once we allowed Russia to vote for Serbia, and Moldova for Romania, it was all over.
Pity Ireland, who once won it every year, who now cannot even make the final, as they are too small and poor.
There is a geopolitical lesson here, I'm just not sure what it is.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> >
> > Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848 <
>
> +++++++++
>
> That's genuinely fascinating. So Britain's plummet in the Eurovision rankings is much more a function of eurovision's expansion into Eastern Europe and beyond, rather than Brexit. Once we allowed Russia to vote for Serbia, and Moldova for Romania, it was all over.
>
> Pity Ireland, who once won it every year, who now cannot even make the final, as they are too small and poor.
>
> There is a geopolitical lesson here, I'm just not sure what it is.
Iraq, I think.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > @Byronic said:
>
> > > > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> > >
>
> > > Germany won just a couple of years back. Norway used to be famous for nil points.France and Spain always do poorly, and apart from Estonia, Latvia and Serbia, Eastern Europe never wins. Sure there is a political element to voting, but it is essential to make an effort too.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1129368724681707522
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > That graph says it all, top countries Sweden and the Ukraine both popular, inoffensive countries.
>
> >
>
> > With Brexit at the moment effort is irrelevant, we have zero chance of winning or getting anywhere near winning, in fact as tonight shows we would be doing well not to come last
>
> >
>
>
>
> The figures are adjusted for the number of times they have entered.Ukraine for example has only existed since 1990, while the French did better in the Sixties.
>
>
>
> I am sure that Brexit didnt help, but we didn't exactly do well with the 13 min EU countries
>
> either.
>
> Obviously, I need to update this, but here's our performance at Eurovision from 1957 to 2017:
>
> https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
That chart needs to be adjusted for the number of participants. There were not 41 of these until recently, and the original contest was only a dozen or so. The drop in our performance came when more countries entered.
I suspect the North Macedonian broadcaster breathed a sigh of relief with the public votes!
> Unofficial second referendum on Thursday:
>
> Remain -> vote LD.
> Leave -> vote Brexit Party.
And the 60% plus who fail to vote?
Ding a dong to the Dutch. It’s been a long wait for them.
And congrats to Duncan Laurence - a Dutch winner with an English/Scottish sounding name!
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
But only for EU elections!
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
>
> But only for EU elections!
Really?
We saw big swings in the Locals.
LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
> >
> > But only for EU elections!
>
> Really?
>
> We saw big swings in the Locals.
>
> LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too.
The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE!
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1129903690503118849
Tuition fees? Didn't Labour introduce those?
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
> > >
> > > But only for EU elections!
> >
> > Really?
> >
> > We saw big swings in the Locals.
> >
> > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too.
>
> The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE!
Well, we will have to wait and see.
In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason.
https://twitter.com/brexitparty_uk/status/1129793945528078336
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > >
> > > BXP 42%
> > > LDEM 20%
> > > GRN 12%
> > > CON 9%
> > > LAB 8%
> > > CUK 4%
> >
> > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> >
> > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
>
> Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
> > > >
> > > > But only for EU elections!
> > >
> > > Really?
> > >
> > > We saw big swings in the Locals.
> > >
> > > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too.
> >
> > The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE!
>
> Well, we will have to wait and see.
>
> In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason.
But to repeat a point I have made earlier, turnout is likely to be abysmal next week - most voters will stay at home. As for people getting the taste for voting for a different party , little evidence that paid much in the way of dividends for the LDs in 2017. Many of those who bother to vote have a pretty frivolous attitude to EU elections.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > >
> > > > BXP 42%
> > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > GRN 12%
> > > > CON 9%
> > > > LAB 8%
> > > > CUK 4%
> > >
> > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > >
> > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> >
> > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
>
> Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
I do very much enjoy the fact that there is one brexit party and three remain parties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtkW7T-2aqU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0c4f283
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/19/michigans-justin-amash-becomes-first-republican-to-back-trump-impeachment
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > e nearer Europe, and not in Asia. Hence its absurd involvement in eurovision.
> > >
> > > No, Australia merely loves camp!
> > >
> > > You see it in the films. Strictly Ballroom, Priscilla Queen of the Desert, Muriels Wedding, etc.<
> >
> > ++++++
> >
> > I know Australia extremely well. They yearn to be nearer Europe. Literally. They are a rich western outlier menaced by much bigger, poorer, more powerful, alien, autocratic Asian nations, from Indonesia to China.
> >
> > Their bizarre involvement in eurovision is a quirky symptom of their condition.
>
> I know Australia well too, having lived and worked there, with lots of family there too.
>
> Australia is a diverse place, and Muriels Wedding, Romper Stomper and Wake in Fright are accurate depictions of that diversity, and very unlike each other. It very much depends, like Britain or USA, who you mix with.
Muriel's Wedding is wonderfully tasteless.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > This should terrify the Tories
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> > > >
> > >
> > > Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Who the Tories have apparently lost.
>
> True, but largely because they have lost everyone!
>
>
As in 2016, it's the 40-44 age group that provide the tipping point.
Nothing quite like hunting for a good present for an 8 year old, finally finding one (a Roman catapult kit), and then having it delivered only to discover the box has 14+ plastered all over it.
*sighs*
Humbug.
Also, vaguely on topic, May's idiotic prevarication temporarily retained support from both sides but when a decision had to be made she held onto almost no-one. Turns out governing is to choose and, to paraphrase the knight in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, she has chosen poorly.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > > This should terrify the Tories
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Who the Tories have apparently lost.
> >
> > True, but largely because they have lost everyone!
> >
> >
>
>
> As in 2016, it's the 40-44 age group that provide the tipping point.
Great, I have another 18 months before I become a vile reactionary bigot.
Terrible strategy.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129921585329127424
>
>
>
> So much for detoxing the LibDems!
I wonder if there will be the same calls to kick him out as there have been from some quarters in response to the Tories saying they will vote for the Brexit Party? Or is that another sign of the hypocrisy of the Remain faction in the Tory party?
When Brexit is over, they can morph into the Pensioners Party. At least that will force the Tories into addressing everyone else’s concerns.
BP remain at 4.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > >
> > > > BXP 42%
> > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > GRN 12%
> > > > CON 9%
> > > > LAB 8%
> > > > CUK 4%
> > >
> > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > >
> > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> >
> > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
>
> Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
And, increasingly, Labour also.
“The Liberal Democrats bring up the rear on 9%, while the Greens are on 7% and the Conservatives and UKIP on 5% each.”
One day we’ll try to convince an established artist and songwriter to put together an entry.
Best selling record in Europe last year was this annoyingly catchy British production:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkeiKbqa02g
> Lib Dems have fallen from 3.5 to 2 to top the London region.
>
> BP remain at 4.
fallen=risen?
With tiny stakes, I backed them and BP to top London, so either suits me.
At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
Beg to disagree on both counts...
I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > > >
> > > > > BXP 42%
> > > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > > GRN 12%
> > > > > CON 9%
> > > > > LAB 8%
> > > > > CUK 4%
> > > >
> > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > > >
> > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> > >
> > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
> >
> > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
>
> And, increasingly, Labour also.
Won't somebody think of poor Adonis? Labour's number 2.
Mwahahahahaha!
I permit free will.
Of course, this necessarily requires the allowance of evil deeds, but the alternative is a toy world without freedom of choice, so, having contemplated the arguments, I chose freedom.
So next Sunday’s schedule: Monaco Grand Prix, Indianapolis 500, EU election count.
I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1129823250287140866<;
>
> +++++++
>
> I predict Ruth Davidson will have the same sudden epiphany.
>
> Remainer Tory opposition to Boris will crumble, as they look at the terrible triple threat of Farage, Corbyn and the resurgent Lib Dems. Boris is going to win. He will be PM.
Perhaps they know that at the 11th hour he will press the "revoke" button to avoid no deal.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
> > > > >
> > > > > But only for EU elections!
> > > >
> > > > Really?
> > > >
> > > > We saw big swings in the Locals.
> > > >
> > > > LDs gaining in the Westminster polling too.
> > >
> > > The Locals were no better for the LDs in terms of NEV than 2017 - and we know what happened then at the GE!
> >
> > Well, we will have to wait and see.
> >
> > In my experience, when people have got the taste of voting for a different party, whether Tories moving to UKIP or Labour to Green and LD, they often do not come straight back. They switched for a reason.
>
> But to repeat a point I have made earlier, turnout is likely to be abysmal next week - most voters will stay at home. As for people getting the taste for voting for a different party , little evidence that paid much in the way of dividends for the LDs in 2017. Many of those who bother to vote have a pretty frivolous attitude to EU elections.
Differential turnout will be striking. I have yet to meet a Brexiter or Tory who will not be voting. LDs who are supposedly in the majority here are going to stay at home.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_1974
> > @ah009 said:
>
> > > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > > @kle4 said:
>
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > BXP 42%
>
> > > > > LDEM 20%
>
> > > > > GRN 12%
>
> > > > > CON 9%
>
> > > > > LAB 8%
>
> > > > > CUK 4%
>
> > > >
>
> > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
>
> > >
>
> > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
>
> >
>
> > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
>
>
>
> And, increasingly, Labour also.
>
> Aren't we 2nd in every poll outside of YouGov?
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
> The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
>
> Terrible strategy.
>
> Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
>
> At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
>
>
> Beg to disagree on both counts...
>
> I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
>
> And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
>
> I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver.
>
> I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
Effectively we have no government at present.
I am enjoying your sudden change to Boris supporter.
Edit: Panelbase for example has us joint second in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129907848182403072?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
I realise you may like the YouGov polls but there is no reason to accept they are right and other polls are wrong unless you have some extra information.
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
> >
> > Terrible strategy.
> >
> > Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
> >
> > At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
> >
> >
> > Beg to disagree on both counts...
> >
> > I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
> >
> > And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
> >
> > I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver.
> >
> > I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
>
> No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
>
> Effectively we have no government at present.
Not sure that your thoughts are more 'better the devil you know' but she has to go and I expect the cabinet will force her out if necessary.
As a long term TM supporter I accept the time is now and she needs to leave with some dignity
As far as her legacy is concerned she may actually be proved right in so far as her deal was and remains the best brexit but she was utterly lousy at selling it
I have yet to meet a Brexiter or Tory who will not be voting.
*waves*
Just curious, as the schoolgirl said to the nun.
Labour are haemorrhaging votes to the LibDems. Who will.
In a few months time, we may begin to see who was the big long-term loser out of the EU elections.