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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place
New New @ComRes Euro voting intention for S Mirror / S Express finds CON on 9% seven points behind the LDs Brexit P 31% (+4)Lab 23% (-2)LD 16% (+2)Con 9% (-4)Grn 9% (-)CUK 4% (-2)SNP 4% (+1)UKIP 2% (-1)PC 1% (-)
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Remain -> vote LD.
Leave -> vote Brexit Party.
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1129796718050963457?s=21
<
+++++
Point of Order, Mister Speaker: it's not Alt-Left, it's Ctrl-Left (and Alt-Right).
Ctrl-Left is much wittier.
> Madonna now doing 'Just like a Prayer' on Eurovision as the finale to this never ending interval with full cloaked choir
Hard to believe this is 30 years old. Where did the years go?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Madonna now doing 'Just like a Prayer' on Eurovision as the finale to this never ending interval with full cloaked choir
>
> Hard to believe this is 30 years old. Where did the years go?
Madonna's bank balance
> The current Eurovision performance looks like a scene from Kubrick's Eyes Wide Shut.
Complete with gas and pig masks
> New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.
> https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1129796718050963457?s=21
Keir Starmer is UK Labour's Bill Shorten
> I am old enough to remember when Madonna was edgy.
Well, she still is.
Just not in quite the same way.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
>
> It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.
Can Remain be populist?
We get 0, 12 points for the Netherlands from the Portuguese
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
>
> It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing. <
+++++
Why not, when it has worked for the SNP, Corbyn, and now Farage?
Brexit is bollocks, but if it produces a realignment, where the renewed Lib Dems become the real opposition, facing the Tories (or BXP), and replacing the Marxists of JC's Labour, then that would be a definite benefit.
Corbyn is poison, and he is surrounded by snakes. You know this. He must not be allowed near power.
> > @kle4 said:
> > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
>
> Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
> >
> > It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.
>
> Can Remain be populist?
Sure; populism just says the elite don't care for you, vote for us. The Remain version is "Brexit is all part of JRM and Aaron Banks' evil master plan to buy firesale assets / privatise NHS / something else and they don't care about you. You should vote remain to thwart them". It's a meme that does the rounds on the Graun comment pages for one.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
> >
> > Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
>
> I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.<
+++++
I'm a centre right Remainer tempted to vote BXP, just to kill off Teresa. She has to be staked in the heart. Then get a Brexiteer in, as that's what - apparently - most of the country wants.
Both polls suggest that the Greens may outpace the Tories, which would be embarrassing for the Tories but a nuisance for Labour too, as another source of vote diversion starts to look credible.
Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all your expectations and vote LibDem?
https://kurier.at/politik/inland/genug-ist-genug-kurz-verkuendet-neuwahlen/400498717
> UK on double figures (11)
Unlike the Tories probably ....
BXP 42%
LDEM 20%
GRN 12%
CON 9%
LAB 8%
CUK 4%
> Irish give zip to the UK
++++++
HARD BORDER. NOW.
> The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> BXP 42%
> LDEM 20%
> GRN 12%
> CON 9%
> LAB 8%
> CUK 4%
Anne Widdecombe's personal vote?
> The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> BXP 42%
> LDEM 20%
> GRN 12%
> CON 9%
> LAB 8%
> CUK 4%
My Father voted for Rachel Johnson because she is a nice person. I will rib him tomorrow over lunch.
PS he is normally Tory Donkey with a blue rosette voter.
> The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> BXP 42%
> LDEM 20%
> GRN 12%
> CON 9%
> LAB 8%
> CUK 4%
On those figures the seats would be 3 BXP, 2 LD and 1 GRN. Nothing for the Conservatives or Labour.
North Macedonia leading the Jury Votes
> The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> BXP 42%
> LDEM 20%
> GRN 12%
> CON 9%
> LAB 8%
> CUK 4%
The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
Thankfully for the voters he is the only person in the top two of the SW Brexit party list who has topless photos on the web.
Now for the public vote...
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
> >
> > Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
>
> I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.
-----------------
A pity vote is all anyone is probably getting from me at this point, but as much as it feels weird that those who will benefit most in the Tory party for the coming mess are those who have resisted Brexiting the most, given the Tories are about to joyfully become the no deal party/ please please please Mr Farage may we do a deal with you party, I'm not sure they deserve the pity.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
>
> >
>
> > BXP 42%
>
> > LDEM 20%
>
> > GRN 12%
>
> > CON 9%
>
> > LAB 8%
>
> > CUK 4%
>
>
>
> Anne Widdecombe's personal vote?
>
> Or they fancy James Glancy - former Royal marine, Afghan veteran and environmental campaigner? Anne’s No 2!
-------------------
Is she? I thought they were ordered as per the statement of candidates
https://exeter.gov.uk/media/4645/statement-of-parties-individual-candidates-nominated-and-notice-of-pol_.pdf
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> >
> > BXP 42%
> > LDEM 20%
> > GRN 12%
> > CON 9%
> > LAB 8%
> > CUK 4%
>
> The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
>
> No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
Difficult to believe Tories and Labour are on just 17% in the SW.
Germany just got 0.
Though we are now last
Last place now
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > >
> > > BXP 42%
> > > LDEM 20%
> > > GRN 12%
> > > CON 9%
> > > LAB 8%
> > > CUK 4%
> >
> > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> >
> > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
>
> Difficult to believe Tories and Labour are on just 17% in the SW.
Well with most Tories believing the Brexit Party is the new Tories, it is not that surprising they are that low, and it is not a massive drop for Labour from last time.
> UK get only 3 points from the Public Vote
>
> Last place now
Not the first time we've come last, and it won't be the, er, last.
> UK last !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hardly surprising, is it?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> >
> > BXP 42%
> > LDEM 20%
> > GRN 12%
> > CON 9%
> > LAB 8%
> > CUK 4%
>
> The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
>
> No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
> UK get two points!
We're not bottom again are we? Nothing to do with Brexit I suppose.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > UK get two points!
>
> We're not bottom again are we? Nothing to do with Brexit I suppose.
Yes, we will definitely be last now. No more votes possible for us (though we did get more public votes than Germany, Brexit and Merkel austerity clearly overrides the music).
Russia now takes the lead
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > >
> > > BXP 42%
> > > LDEM 20%
> > > GRN 12%
> > > CON 9%
> > > LAB 8%
> > > CUK 4%
> >
> > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> >
> > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
>
> Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
I like this description from the wiki page for D'Hondt
"Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods"
> Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.
And ours.
It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> Stupidest contest yet.
European elections, Eurovision, Conservative leader or all three ?..
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.
>
> And ours.
Well, the juries recognized that our's was rubbish too.
> If my hasty scribbling is right, and those london numbers are right, then it is quite a fight on for the 8th seat in London at the very least, but CUK are missing out
I make 8th a 2nd Labour by quite a way. 2LD, Lab and BP. 1 Green and Tory. But I have been drinking.
Well this is interesting regarding the Australian election.
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00+10:00&max-results=7
<i>"A couple of days ago I made the following statement:
I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have wondered about the likelihood of a polling failure (in either direction). Has the under-dispersion come about randomly (unlikely but not impossible). Or is it an artefact of some process, such as online polling? Herding? Pollster self-censorship? Or some other process I have not identified?"</i>
> Even the voting has an interval ffs.
Advert break in some countries.
Norway was robbed, but the Dutch song was decent.
> We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
>
> It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were.