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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with t

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Euro polls find BRX reinforcing its position with the LDs starting to nudge LAB out of second place

New New @ComRes Euro voting intention for S Mirror / S Express finds CON on 9% seven points behind the LDs Brexit P 31% (+4)Lab 23% (-2)LD 16% (+2)Con 9% (-4)Grn 9% (-)CUK 4% (-2)SNP 4% (+1)UKIP 2% (-1)PC 1% (-)

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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    edited May 2019
    LDs show Bollocks
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    Is London, once again, the only region that is worthy of any polling? Is there a special bonus for that region that we don't know about?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Unofficial second referendum on Thursday:

    Remain -> vote LD.
    Leave -> vote Brexit Party.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    And someone will be far too modest to mention their Tories sub 10% and fifth place tips pretty damn soon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    LDs AND Brexit party ahead of both the Tories AND Labour in London and across the UK as a whole, now that would be dramatic and very concerning for the main parties
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    Madonna now doing 'Like a Prayer' on Eurovision as the finale to this never ending interval with full cloaked choir
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1129796718050963457?s=21

    <

    +++++

    Point of Order, Mister Speaker: it's not Alt-Left, it's Ctrl-Left (and Alt-Right).

    Ctrl-Left is much wittier.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The current Eurovision performance looks like a scene from Kubrick's Eyes Wide Shut.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Madonna now doing 'Just like a Prayer' on Eurovision as the finale to this never ending interval with full cloaked choir

    Hard to believe this is 30 years old. Where did the years go?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Almost exactly 30 years since Like A Prayer was number one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > Madonna now doing 'Just like a Prayer' on Eurovision as the finale to this never ending interval with full cloaked choir
    >
    > Hard to believe this is 30 years old. Where did the years go?
    Madonna's bank balance
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    I am old enough to remember when Madonna was edgy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    > @AndyJS said:
    > The current Eurovision performance looks like a scene from Kubrick's Eyes Wide Shut.

    Complete with gas and pig masks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    > @kle4 said:
    > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.

    Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    > @MikeSmithson said:
    > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968

    It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1129796718050963457?s=21
    Keir Starmer is UK Labour's Bill Shorten
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    > @Jonathan said:
    > I am old enough to remember when Madonna was edgy.

    Well, she still is.

    Just not in quite the same way.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
    >
    > It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.

    Can Remain be populist?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    Finally the voting starts with Portugal.

    We get 0, 12 points for the Netherlands from the Portuguese
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
    >
    > It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing. <

    +++++

    Why not, when it has worked for the SNP, Corbyn, and now Farage?

    Brexit is bollocks, but if it produces a realignment, where the renewed Lib Dems become the real opposition, facing the Tories (or BXP), and replacing the Marxists of JC's Labour, then that would be a definite benefit.

    Corbyn is poison, and he is surrounded by snakes. You know this. He must not be allowed near power.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,148
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
    >
    > Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ

    I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @MikeSmithson said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1129869965652307968
    > >
    > > It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing.
    >
    > Can Remain be populist?

    Sure; populism just says the elite don't care for you, vote for us. The Remain version is "Brexit is all part of JRM and Aaron Banks' evil master plan to buy firesale assets / privatise NHS / something else and they don't care about you. You should vote remain to thwart them". It's a meme that does the rounds on the Graun comment pages for one.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,496
    Some years ago my sister was chatting to someone next to her at a parents' meeting, and afterwards was informed that she had been chatting with Madonna. Kudos to both ladies!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
    > >
    > > Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
    >
    > I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.<

    +++++

    I'm a centre right Remainer tempted to vote BXP, just to kill off Teresa. She has to be staked in the heart. Then get a Brexiteer in, as that's what - apparently - most of the country wants.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375
    I'm a bit sceptical - the Hope Not Hate poll was taken leisurely over 9 days (a larger sample does not produce much greater accuracy, for the reasons we've often discussed), and finished before the latest poll putting the LibDems 7 points behind Labour. That would still be a very good score but they're letting expectations run away with them.

    Both polls suggest that the Greens may outpace the Tories, which would be embarrassing for the Tories but a nuisance for Labour too, as another source of vote diversion starts to look credible.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    FPT
    AndyJS said:

    If everyone agrees to vote either LD or Brexit Party on Thursday, we could turn it into a second referendum. (I don't claim this as an original thought).

    In that case, I'd better vote Brexit.

    Or should I do a Rian Johnson, and subvert all your expectations and vote LibDem? :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK get two points!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    UK gives 12 points to North Macedonia who overtake Italy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    North Macedonia get the UK's 12 points
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375
    New elections called in Austria for September after the far-right bribery scandal:

    https://kurier.at/politik/inland/genug-ist-genug-kurz-verkuendet-neuwahlen/400498717
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK on 4 points :)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,496
    Bet Greece is happy with N Macedonia's success.
    :wink:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Irish give zip to the UK :(
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    5 points from Belarus, we're on 9 so far!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    What odds were N Macedonia? Don't remember them at all?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK on double figures (11)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,822
    Even the voting has an interval ffs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647

    Even the voting has an interval ffs.

    An appetizer before Thursday night's main course ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    Cringeworthy just isn't a big enough word.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > UK on double figures (11)

    Unlike the Tories probably .... :wink:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK on 12 (1 point from Georgia)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:

    BXP 42%
    LDEM 20%
    GRN 12%
    CON 9%
    LAB 8%
    CUK 4%
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Irish give zip to the UK :( <

    ++++++

    HARD BORDER. NOW.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,430
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    >
    > BXP 42%
    > LDEM 20%
    > GRN 12%
    > CON 9%
    > LAB 8%
    > CUK 4%

    Anne Widdecombe's personal vote? :D
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    >
    > BXP 42%
    > LDEM 20%
    > GRN 12%
    > CON 9%
    > LAB 8%
    > CUK 4%

    My Father voted for Rachel Johnson because she is a nice person. I will rib him tomorrow over lunch.

    PS he is normally Tory Donkey with a blue rosette voter.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,335
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    >
    > BXP 42%
    > LDEM 20%
    > GRN 12%
    > CON 9%
    > LAB 8%
    > CUK 4%

    On those figures the seats would be 3 BXP, 2 LD and 1 GRN. Nothing for the Conservatives or Labour.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK on 13 (1 point from the Swiss)

    North Macedonia leading the Jury Votes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @williamglenn said:
    > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    >
    > BXP 42%
    > LDEM 20%
    > GRN 12%
    > CON 9%
    > LAB 8%
    > CUK 4%

    The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.

    No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    RobD said:

    > @williamglenn said:

    > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:

    >

    > BXP 42%

    > LDEM 20%

    > GRN 12%

    > CON 9%

    > LAB 8%

    > CUK 4%



    Anne Widdecombe's personal vote? :D

    Or they fancy James Glancy - former Royal marine, Afghan veteran and environmental campaigner? Anne’s No 2!

    Thankfully for the voters he is the only person in the top two of the SW Brexit party list who has topless photos on the web.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Sweden leading after the Jury Votes

    Now for the public vote...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    Eurovision ending in a Hung Parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    I always forget it isn't over after an hour of the country by country votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > New Con target - can they at least stay in double figures. What a sad position for them.
    > >
    > > Most Tories will be voting Brexit Party on Thursday, so more a sad position for CCHQ
    >
    > I'll vote Conservative out of sympathy, on Thursday.

    -----------------
    A pity vote is all anyone is probably getting from me at this point, but as much as it feels weird that those who will benefit most in the Tory party for the coming mess are those who have resisted Brexiting the most, given the Tories are about to joyfully become the no deal party/ please please please Mr Farage may we do a deal with you party, I'm not sure they deserve the pity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    edited May 2019
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    >
    > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > BXP 42%
    >
    > > LDEM 20%
    >
    > > GRN 12%
    >
    > > CON 9%
    >
    > > LAB 8%
    >
    > > CUK 4%
    >
    >
    >
    > Anne Widdecombe's personal vote? :D
    >
    > Or they fancy James Glancy - former Royal marine, Afghan veteran and environmental campaigner? Anne’s No 2!
    -------------------
    Is she? I thought they were ordered as per the statement of candidates

    https://exeter.gov.uk/media/4645/statement-of-parties-individual-candidates-nominated-and-notice-of-pol_.pdf
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    Change to the format here, as they normally announce the public vote in reverse order.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    > >
    > > BXP 42%
    > > LDEM 20%
    > > GRN 12%
    > > CON 9%
    > > LAB 8%
    > > CUK 4%
    >
    > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
    >
    > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?

    Difficult to believe Tories and Labour are on just 17% in the SW.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    We get 3 points from the public, Spain got 50. Serbia got 54.

    Germany just got 0.

    Though we are now last
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    UK last !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    UK get only 3 points from the Public Vote

    Last place now :(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    > > >
    > > > BXP 42%
    > > > LDEM 20%
    > > > GRN 12%
    > > > CON 9%
    > > > LAB 8%
    > > > CUK 4%
    > >
    > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
    > >
    > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
    >
    > Difficult to believe Tories and Labour are on just 17% in the SW.

    Well with most Tories believing the Brexit Party is the new Tories, it is not that surprising they are that low, and it is not a massive drop for Labour from last time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    Zero? It's Nil Points FFS!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > UK get only 3 points from the Public Vote
    >
    > Last place now :(

    Not the first time we've come last, and it won't be the, er, last.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Germany get 0 points in the Public Vote, finish 3rd from last
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    > @JackW said:
    > UK last !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hardly surprising, is it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @williamglenn said:
    > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    > >
    > > BXP 42%
    > > LDEM 20%
    > > GRN 12%
    > > CON 9%
    > > LAB 8%
    > > CUK 4%
    >
    > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
    >
    > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?

    Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > UK get two points!

    We're not bottom again are we? Nothing to do with Brexit I suppose.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Norway was good, I thought :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Russia was also good
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > UK get two points!
    >
    > We're not bottom again are we? Nothing to do with Brexit I suppose.

    Yes, we will definitely be last now. No more votes possible for us (though we did get more public votes than Germany, Brexit and Merkel austerity clearly overrides the music).


    Russia now takes the lead
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > > @williamglenn said:
    > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
    > > >
    > > > BXP 42%
    > > > LDEM 20%
    > > > GRN 12%
    > > > CON 9%
    > > > LAB 8%
    > > > CUK 4%
    > >
    > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
    > >
    > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
    >
    > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...

    I like this description from the wiki page for D'Hondt

    "Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods"
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    AndyJS said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > UK get two points!



    We're not bottom again are we? Nothing to do with Brexit I suppose.

    We got 111 points, 15th place in 2017
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    The Netherlands wins
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Netherlands win! Bookies' favourite, apparently
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    Stupidest contest yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    If my hasty scribbling is right, and those london numbers are right, then it is quite a fight on for the 8th seat in London at the very least, but CUK are missing out
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,496
    Spot on midnight for the result.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,822
    Well I think my Germany last UK next to last was correct for the public vote if not overall.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647

    Stupidest contest yet.

    No, that's this coming Thursday night :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    What's with there being so many independent candidates in London constituency?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    > @tlg86 said:
    > Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.

    And ours.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.

    It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > Stupidest contest yet.

    European elections, Eurovision, Conservative leader or all three ?.. :smiley:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @tlg86 said:
    > > Interesting the differences between the juries and the public. I think the public are spot on with the Czech Republic song. Utter rubbish.
    >
    > And ours.

    Well, the juries recognized that our's was rubbish too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    > @kle4 said:
    > If my hasty scribbling is right, and those london numbers are right, then it is quite a fight on for the 8th seat in London at the very least, but CUK are missing out

    I make 8th a 2nd Labour by quite a way. 2LD, Lab and BP. 1 Green and Tory. But I have been drinking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    Brexit Party and Plaid take first and second spot in Wales respectively https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1129867900645457921?s=20
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Byronic said:

    We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.



    It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.

    We got 111 points, 15th place in 2017

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    O/T

    Well this is interesting regarding the Australian election.

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-05-09T08:04:00+10:00&amp;max-results=7

    <i>"A couple of days ago I made the following statement:

    I must admit that the under-dispersion of the recent polls troubles me a little. If the polls were normally distributed, I would expect to see poll results outside of this one-point spread for each side. Because there is under-dispersion, I have wondered about the likelihood of a polling failure (in either direction). Has the under-dispersion come about randomly (unlikely but not impossible). Or is it an artefact of some process, such as online polling? Herding? Pollster self-censorship? Or some other process I have not identified?"</i>
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    > @paulyork64 said:
    > Even the voting has an interval ffs.

    Advert break in some countries.

    Norway was robbed, but the Dutch song was decent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @Byronic said:
    > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
    >
    > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.

    It just proves they're not voting according to how good the song is. Whereas in 1981 they probably were.
This discussion has been closed.