> > The Con party should never have taken part in thesee election- the decision to do so looks dafter by the day and the reward of MEPs is shrinking by the hour.
> >
> > Terrible strategy.
> >
> > Not sure that failing to stand would have helped much - we’d have probably lost the likes of Dan Hannan to Farage, along with many more activists, members and volunteers who have been pounding the streets for the past few weeks.
> >
> > At least the huge defeat should hasten Mrs May’s departure from No. 10, I don’t see how her position is anything but untenable if we get 10%.
> >
> >
> > Beg to disagree on both counts...
> >
> > I think not participating would have been a sound move from the Tories; they could have said "we're not wasting our or the voters' time on this, given we'll be out soon". That would have been a reasonable stance given their official Brexit policy.
> >
> > And on the second point: never underestimate May's limpet-like qualities!
> >
> > I don’t see how she continues past next week, if we fail to make double figures in the EU elections and a couple of days later her Brexit bill goes down in the Commons. Time for the Men In Grey Suits to hand her the (metaphorical) whisky and revolver.
> >
> > I think the danger of not standing would have been the permanent loss of members and activists to other parties. What use is a political party if they don’t stand in elections? (Ask the CUKs).
>
> No matter what the men in grey suits say, she canhang on until December on current rules. Even if the Tories only get 1% of the vote. Nothing Has Changed.
>
> Effectively we have no government at present.
Not sure that your thoughts are more 'better the devil you know' but she has to go and I expect the cabinet will force her out if necessary.
As a long term TM supporter I accept the time is now and she needs to leave with some dignity
As far as her legacy is concerned she may actually be proved right in so far as her deal was and remains the best brexit but she was utterly lousy at selling it
I have always opposed TM. Her mental rigidity and lack of people skills always made her unsuitable for the role of PM. Such a role requires listening and chairing skills that she clearly lacks.
A Tory leadership contest may help the logjam, but probably the mechanism that logjam is resolved by is collapse of the government.
> @RobD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting: > > > > > > > > > > BXP 42% > > > > > LDEM 20% > > > > > GRN 12% > > > > > CON 9% > > > > > LAB 8% > > > > > CUK 4% > > > > > > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery. > > > > > > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think? > > > > > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules... > > > > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country. > > I do very much enjoy the fact that there is one brexit party and three remain parties.
Yet brexiters will be totting up any Conservative votes in the "will of the people" column.
> @TheJezziah said: > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse > > > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape > > > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > If as every poll outside of YouGov indicates we finish second with 20 something points then it doesn't really seem like we are following the Conservatives in spectacular collapse, that is pretty much our performance in the last European election. > > I am enjoying your sudden change to Boris supporter. > > Edit: Panelbase for example has us joint second in Scotland. > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129907848182403072 > > > > I realise you may like the YouGov polls but there is no reason to accept they are right and other polls are wrong unless you have some extra information.
Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse
>
>
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
>
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape
>
>
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> If as every poll outside of YouGov indicates we finish second with 20 something points then it doesn't really seem like we are following the Conservatives in spectacular collapse, that is pretty much our performance in the last European election.
>
> I am enjoying your sudden change to Boris supporter.
>
> Edit: Panelbase for example has us joint second in Scotland.
> I realise you may like the YouGov polls but there is no reason to accept they are right and other polls are wrong unless you have some extra information.
Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
I am hopeful that Labours Brexit disaster will also be resolved via a leadership contest this summer. It will need someone stronger than Owen Smith, though even he got nearly 40%.
With an LD contest too it could be all change by conference season.
Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
So you are not basing it on the polls?
I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter?
You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views.
Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition.
Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic?
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
Mr Morrison genuinely can now do whatever the hell he likes.This is a man who — in one evening — has won the hysterical adulation of his horridly divided party, condemned Labor to a painful round of internal recrimination and grief, won Government without the tedious overhang of rash or unachievable campaign promises, and taken Clive Palmer for 60 million big ones without actually having to deal with the bloke in the Senate... Scott Morrison's campaign was extremely economical; just one guy, with mainly one message, which was "I can be trusted to manage the economy. The other guy can't".
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. B2, fallen, shortened, improved, if you like. > > With tiny stakes, I backed them and BP to top London, so either suits me.
Subject to the usual health warnings regarding the accuracy of the polls, it's not wholly inconceivable - based on the way the vote in London has splintered, and how close the Brexit Party are to the Lib Dems - that the Brexit Party could sneak first place in London.
That would be rather amusing.
More generally, what we might stand to see - if Brexit polarization is allowed to continue and to deepen - is the threat of the Scottish situation replicating itself in England. By which I mean, there is one dominant party representing one half of the referendum divide, whereas the other side is split three ways - and look what's happened there.
To clarify, I do not expect a Brexit Party victory in the next General Election. If they can manage to hang together and develop a full policy platform after these EU elections then they might be able to replace the SNP as the third party in the Commons, but the Tories and Labour *appear* so entrenched as to be immovable. Though then again, Scottish Labour looked invincible for decades, til all of a sudden they weren't.
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
And our local elections. I think that it will be another bad set of votes for Labour, with a vote strike and vote for Remain parties.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
(edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
Although we disagree Big G seems in pretty sound mind, I'm sure he would have realised straight away he was looking at Australian results rather than UK ones.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
(edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks.
And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
Although we disagree Big G seems in pretty sound mind, I'm sure he would have realised straight away he was looking at Australian results rather than UK ones.
My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another.
How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
Impressive chart. The Tories don't appeal to the young because they are bunch of reactionaries. They no longer appeal to the old because they aren't reactionary enough. Not quite as desperate for Labour but bad enough. They are losing their support across the piece.
> @TheJezziah said: > Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it > > > > Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster > > So you are not basing it on the polls? > > I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter? > > You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views. > > Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition. > > Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic? > > I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
I do not expect you to trust me. I can be wrong, and have been on many occassions, but it is not difficult to pick up the trend both in the media and generally and it is clear the two parties with a stated objective ( just leave TBP or remain the lib dems) are gaining thousands of voters daily at the expense of both conservatives and labour
I am very realistic when I accept the conservatives will be traduced but I am also realistic enough to see labour going the same way. A few percentage points difference in the polls is not any consolation when you consider how the poll ratings for both parties have collapsed
@TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
What does "have a go" mean?
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
I agree with those posters suggesting that the LibDem renaissance could spell bad news for Labour. However it would also mean a pile of seat losses for the Tories to the LibDems so it isn't clear who would be hurt the most.
> @TheJezziah said: > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit? > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs. > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction? > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE. > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
(edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks.
And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
On that subject incidentally, this post from nine years ago by somebody who posts regularly on here seems pretty prescient:
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
What does "have a go" mean?
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
> @ydoethur said: > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse. > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape. > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought). > > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson. > > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't). > > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world. > > While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ? > > (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.) > > > > That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks. > > And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
You need somebody to beat Johnson. Not seeing who that is.
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
Although we disagree Big G seems in pretty sound mind, I'm sure he would have realised straight away he was looking at Australian results rather than UK ones.
My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another.
How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
If you point is anything could happen I agree, I pretty much said I don't know what will happen I don't see what your point means outside of that though?
The evidence equally doesn't point to Labour doing great in the Euro elections so we can point out the Australian example to anyone who says Labour aren't doing great?
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
What does "have a go" mean?
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
That seems very unlikely. Blair and Cameron ran away, but I think they were the first Prime Ministers to do so immediately after losing the premiership since Baldwin in 1937 (and even if we add party leaders in, that only extends the list as far as Kinnock). Fighting a seat that isn't as safe as that, I think May will stay on.
> @Dura_Ace said: > I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go. > > What does "have a go" mean? > > Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse) > > When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
I am not convinced TM will resign her seat. TM political history is very much tied into being a constituency mp and she does seem to be at home looking after her constituents
You may be right that she will leave parliament but I would be surprised if she did it immediately
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
Although we disagree Big G seems in pretty sound mind, I'm sure he would have realised straight away he was looking at Australian results rather than UK ones.
My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another.
How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
If you point is anything could happen I agree, I pretty much said I don't know what will happen I don't see what your point means outside of that though?
The evidence equally doesn't point to Labour doing great in the Euro elections so we can point out the Australian example to anyone who says Labour aren't doing great?
You were asking for evidence.
I was pointing out such evidence as we have is worthless. We've just had yet another demonstration of that.
So therefore I think it is valid to consider somebody's judgement ahead of it, although feel free to disagree.
> @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
>
> TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
>
> I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
>
> I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
>
> Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government...
Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
You need somebody to beat Johnson. Not seeing who that is.
Could be anyone of several if media reports about his energetic love life are to be believed (disclaimer - they're not).
More seriously, I would have said on past form he'll start well, make a huge gaffe, apologise clumsily making matters worse and somehow contrive to come last.
> Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
>
>
>
> Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
>
> So you are not basing it on the polls?
>
> I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter?
>
> You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views.
>
> Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition.
>
> Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic?
>
> I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
I do not expect you to trust me. I can be wrong, and have been on many occassions, but it is not difficult to pick up the trend both in the media and generally and it is clear the two parties with a stated objective ( just leave TBP or remain the lib dems) are gaining thousands of voters daily at the expense of both conservatives and labour
I am very realistic when I accept the conservatives will be traduced but I am also realistic enough to see labour going the same way. A few percentage points difference in the polls is not any consolation when you consider how the poll ratings for both parties have collapsed
As people used in criticism against Corbyn, the percentage is not important*, it is the seats that matter.
Most polls show Labour gaining seats in Westminster and holding steady in Euro elections, I'll happily take that.
*Which is true in that it is seats that matter for exercising power but the are other reasons percentage is important.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit? > > > > > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs. > > > > > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction? > > > > > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE. > > > > > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects. > > > > If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic. > > I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government... > > Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy? > > Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something has to change. Essentially the leadership have treated some of its supporters rather poorly on the assumption they have nowhere to go. They now have somewhere to go and have gone there.
Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that.
Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it > > > > > > > > > > > > Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster > > > > > > So you are not basing it on the polls? > > > > > > I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter? > > > > > > You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views. > > > > > > Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition. > > > > > > Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic? > > > > > > I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information? > > > > I do not expect you to trust me. I can be wrong, and have been on many occassions, but it is not difficult to pick up the trend both in the media and generally and it is clear the two parties with a stated objective ( just leave TBP or remain the lib dems) are gaining thousands of voters daily at the expense of both conservatives and labour > > > > I am very realistic when I accept the conservatives will be traduced but I am also realistic enough to see labour going the same way. A few percentage points difference in the polls is not any consolation when you consider how the poll ratings for both parties have collapsed > > As people used in criticism against Corbyn, the percentage is meaningless*, it is the seats that matter. > > Most polls show Labour gaining seats in Westminster and holding steady in Euro elections, I'll happily take that. > > *Except it did matter for that election for non legislation reasons, it is seats that matter for exercising power though which is much more what the next election will be about for Labour.
Even that could change in the next few months with new leaders for the conservatives and lib dems and the fallout of the EU elections causing realignment of politics both here and throughout the EU
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
He looked at the results from Australia?
Although we disagree Big G seems in pretty sound mind, I'm sure he would have realised straight away he was looking at Australian results rather than UK ones.
My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another.
How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
If you point is anything could happen I agree, I pretty much said I don't know what will happen I don't see what your point means outside of that though?
The evidence equally doesn't point to Labour doing great in the Euro elections so we can point out the Australian example to anyone who says Labour aren't doing great?
You were asking for evidence.
I was pointing out such evidence as we have is worthless. We've just had yet another demonstration of that.
So therefore I think it is valid to consider somebody's judgement ahead of it, although feel free to disagree.
I feel you probably haven't taken such a critical approach to polls in the past when they have shown Corbyn in a bad light, If this polls are completely worthless is a consistent approach you will take when it offers an opportunity for a dig at Corbyn in future then fair play...
Polls can be wrong but they are better than nothing generally. You can find individuals expressing almost any viewpoint so that can end up a case of choosing the viewpoint you want to hear. Big G offers a view but why should I listen to his judgement over a left winger or a centrist for example or even a right winger with a different opinion?
An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
> > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
>
> >
>
> > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
>
> >
>
> > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
>
> >
>
> > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
>
> >
>
> > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
>
>
>
> If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
>
> I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government...
>
> Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
>
> Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something has to change. Essentially the leadership have treated some of its supporters rather poorly on the assumption they have nowhere to go. They now have somewhere to go and have gone there.
Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that.
Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
The main voters who have gone seem to be about Brexit and not being remain enough, so basically become a 2nd ref only (in regards to Brexit) party?
As I mentioned earlier whilst it does have obvious potential upsides there are potential downsides electorally, do you disagree and think there is only potential upside from it?
> It’s exciting for you guys, but I can’t thinking you’re playing with fire by going for the populist thing. <
+++++
Why not, when it has worked for the SNP, Corbyn, and now Farage?
Brexit is bollocks, but if it produces a realignment, where the renewed Lib Dems become the real opposition, facing the Tories (or BXP), and replacing the Marxists of JC's Labour, then that would be a definite benefit.
Corbyn is poison, and he is surrounded by snakes. You know this. He must not be allowed near power.
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
What does "have a go" mean?
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
That seems very unlikely. Blair and Cameron ran away, but I think they were the first Prime Ministers to do so immediately after losing the premiership since Baldwin in 1937 (and even if we add party leaders in, that only extends the list as far as Kinnock). Fighting a seat that isn't as safe as that, I think May will stay on.
You can tell she now has less than zero self respect from the Father Ted haircut but I can't see even her sticking around to witness whatever the fuck happens next.
The idea the European elections should be about something other than Europe is a really bizarre strategy. Sure other actual policies will influence people a bit and it wont be a single issue referendum proxy, but commenting of overall European direction seems like the main point.
> @ydoethur said: > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse. > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape. > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought). > > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson. > > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't). > > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world. > > While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ? > > (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.) > > > > That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks. > > And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win. > > On that subject incidentally, this post from nine years ago by somebody who posts regularly on here seems pretty prescient: > > http://cicerossongs.blogspot.com/2010/01/implosion-of-british-power.html
An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that.
I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
What does "have a go" mean?
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
That seems very unlikely. Blair and Cameron ran away, but I think they were the first Prime Ministers to do so immediately after losing the premiership since Baldwin in 1937 (and even if we add party leaders in, that only extends the list as far as Kinnock). Fighting a seat that isn't as safe as that, I think May will stay on.
You can tell she now has less than zero self respect from the Father Ted haircut but I can't see even her sticking around to witness whatever the fuck happens next.
On past form, only useful metric for forecasting May’s behaviour is Clarke’s “bloody difficult woman” one. In this case that could point either way.
> > > We're gonna be last for the next 20 years. They hate us for voting Brexit.
> > >
> > > It almost makes me wish I'd voted for Brexit, in the Millwall spirit. Fuck em.
> >
> > Normally Eurovision is won by a popular but dull and inoffensive Nordic nation or Ireland, for which you can add the Benelux now too.
> >
> > Germany and the UK are the most powerful nations in Europe and resented by the others and thus stand no chance whoever they put up and France is pretty much in the same boat but the French at least avoid the blame for austerity and Brexit unlike ourselves and the Germans
>
> Or is is that we don’t really try? To try properly would be beneath us. We’re a bit snobby
We could put up the greatest song in the history of pop music and still lose at the moment, the last time we won was Katrina and the Waves in 1997 but that was when Blair had just got in and we were a bit more popular with Europeans and 'Cool Britannia' was at its height
LOL, the UK are the pub bores of Europe, everybody wants to avoid them at all costs. Get used to it.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @ydoethur said: > > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse. > > > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape. > > > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > > > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought). > > > > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson. > > > > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't). > > > > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world. > > > > While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ? > > > > (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.) > > > > > > > > That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks. > > > > And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win. > > You need somebody to beat Johnson. Not seeing who that is.
Neither am I. He might win for the same reason May has stayed in office so long. No-one obviously better.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
You been at the sherry. More chance of me being Pope
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
More chance of me being Pope
You will have a tough job in front of you, may I recommend starting with some interfaith cooperation to build up good will.
> @Jonathan said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit? > > > > > > > > > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs. > > > > > > > > > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction? > > > > > > > > > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE. > > > > > > > > > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects. > > > > > > > > If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic. > > > > I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government... > > > > Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy? > > > > Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn? > > I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something has to change. Essentially the leadership have treated some of its supporters rather poorly on the assumption they have nowhere to go. They now have somewhere to go and have gone there. > > Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that. > > Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
I see Labour as a very serious threat to me and my family. I expect a Corbyn-led Britain to actively undermine our armed forces and intelligence services out of ideology, launch as many Marxist experiments with the economy as it can, tax me out of my home and destroy my savings.
No matter how embarrassing and cringeworthy a Tory Government might be, why wouldn't a swing voter move heaven and earth to stop Labour?
> @Jonathan said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit? > > > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs. > > > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction? > > > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE. > > > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects. > > If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic. >
The longer Labour are kept out-of-office, the better.
> @isam said: > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > He is going to make me vote TBP. > > Isn’t ‘traitors’ one of those words that, without widespread denouncement, tar all people on the side of those who make it with the same brush?
Guy Verhofstadt already considers us to all be part of a federal Europe, and operates, politically, on that basis.
So, according to his world view, Farage is a traitor to the European Union.
Does he wonder why such obviously unfit people include the leader of the most popular party of Italy, and others? Honestly there are times I actually like verhofstadt but like any fanatic he does not appear to have a self reflective bone in his body and he has the same answer and solution to any issue, never seeming to be curious why people turn to Russian backed liars or whatever.
Does he think it because people are dumb or because they are evil? Or might it be because even if the ones he hates are as bad as he says, his approach is one that does not meet the needs of a large chunk of voters.
> Mr. B2, fallen, shortened, improved, if you like.
>
> With tiny stakes, I backed them and BP to top London, so either suits me.
Subject to the usual health warnings regarding the accuracy of the polls, it's not wholly inconceivable - based on the way the vote in London has splintered, and how close the Brexit Party are to the Lib Dems - that the Brexit Party could sneak first place in London.
That would be rather amusing.
More generally, what we might stand to see - if Brexit polarization is allowed to continue and to deepen - is the threat of the Scottish situation replicating itself in England. By which I mean, there is one dominant party representing one half of the referendum divide, whereas the other side is split three ways - and look what's happened there.
To clarify, I do not expect a Brexit Party victory in the next General Election. If they can manage to hang together and develop a full policy platform after these EU elections then they might be able to replace the SNP as the third party in the Commons, but the Tories and Labour *appear* so entrenched as to be immovable. Though then again, Scottish Labour looked invincible for decades, til all of a sudden they weren't.
They will go the same way Farage's other protest hobby horse went , the dustbin of history beckons quickly.
Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
More chance of me being Pope
You will have a tough job in front of you, may I recommend starting with some interfaith cooperation to build up good will.
> @malcolmg said: > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse. > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape. > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought). > > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson. > > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't). > > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world. > > You been at the sherry. More chance of me being Pope
I think you’d be quite good at it, malcolm. You’d just have to change your one true faith.
> @malcolmg said: > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse. > > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out. > > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape. > > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales > > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought). > > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson. > > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't). > > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world. > > More chance of me being Pope > > You will have a tough job in front of you, may I recommend starting with some interfaith cooperation to build up good will. > > > Need to become a Catholic first I expect.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520 > > > > Does he wonder why such obviously unfit people include the leader of the most popular party of Italy, and others? Honestly there are times I actually like verhofstadt but like any fanatic he does not appear to have a self reflective bone in his body and he has the same answer and solution to any issue, never seeming to be curious why people turn to Russian backed liars or whatever. > > Does he think it because people are dumb or because they are evil? Or might it be because even if the ones he hates are as bad as he says, his approach is one that does not meet the needs of a large chunk of voters.
> > > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some MPs.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
> >
> >
> >
> > If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
> >
> > I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government...
> >
> > Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
> >
> > Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
>
> I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something ave gone there.
>
> Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that.
>
> Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
I see Labour as a very serious threat to me and my family. I expect a Corbyn-led Britain to actively undermine our armed forces and intelligence services out of ideology, launch as many Marxist experiments with the economy as it can, tax me out of my home and destroy my savings.
No matter how embarrassing and cringeworthy a Tory Government might be, why wouldn't a swing voter move heaven and earth to stop Labour?
Because the government is so incompetent and the Tories about to be captured by their own Corbyn ite tendencies that Corbyn holds no fear. I'm not worried about what he might do and I voted Tory in 2017.
An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that.
An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
> @malcolmg said: > https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1130020264870273024 > > > > An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism. > > On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true. > > Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that. > > > > An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. > PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
Just as a matter of interest Malc, is there anyone in public life, N or S of Hadrians Wall, of whom you have a reasonable opinion? Not asking if you think highly of anyone; just if there's anyone of whom you don't have a low opinion?
They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
And other than insulting them how does he think to persuade the people supporting those he mentions to stop doing so? Presumably he thinks Russian money and nasty populism are the pull factors, but what about the push factors?
Rants like his are very satisfying, especially when correct, but are not enough and can be self defeating and counter productive. There are people who try to persuade of the advantages of the EU and specific values in it. Verhofstadt does do that sometimes but too often he seems to go the williamglenn route of treating the EU and its rules as a crushing inevitability, which is not selling the positives well .
People loved and still love to satisfy themselves with rants about how bad trump is but not enough actually addressing the needs of those tempted by him for instance. I hope they dont make that mistake again. As for Verhofstadt his group is the 4th biggest I think, he does not embody European values like he thinks he does. And what will he do if those traitors end up more popular than him?
I hope they dont but they might and his self satisfied rant wont mean much then.
They have a London left media and a membership skewed towards London trying to tell them that what's good for London Labour is what they need to win in Britain.
The Leave/Remain chasm in Labour is to some extent a London (the white, affluent, zones 1-3 parts) versus the rest situation.
That's why the criticism of Starmer by some of Corbyn's followers has a fair degree of truth in it.
The London Labour BAME vote which has no significant affiliation to the EU isn't arguing for a referendum and will vote Labour.
The Labour vote in the NW is to a degree looking very secure. The Starmer line however is killing Labour in many long standing Labour regions if the polls are correct.
> My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another. > > How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
Worth remembering that in 2017 both the YouGov model and Survation had more favourable results for Labour than occurred. The evidence was there, but it was discounted because it didn't fit with the expectations created by earlier evidence.
In general people tend to discount the uncertainty. The results in 2017, the Brexit referendum and the election of Trump were all within the uncertainty bounds of the polling evidence. I haven't looked at this Australian election, so I don't know whether that's true there too.
The narrative that grew from the polling evidence was more certain - and as it turns out, wrong. We will see which narrative around the EU elections turns out to be wide of the mark. The polling uncertainty covers a wide range of outcomes.
They have a London left media and a membership skewed towards London trying to tell them that what's good for London Labour is what they need to win in Britain.
Labour's enduring problem is they need the London Twitterati, and the Northern Working Men, and the Welsh, and Glasgow to win Britain.
All of them are under threat by Brexit. Jumping one way or the other would maximize the gains in some. Doing nothing is maximizing the losses in each of them.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520 > > > > Well said by Guy Verhofstadt . > > > > They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding . > > Of course it's much easier to see Reds Under The Bed than actually tackle the issues that give these guys traction, eh Guy?
> An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
>
> On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
>
> Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that.
>
>
>
> An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town.
> PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
Just as a matter of interest Malc, is there anyone in public life, N or S of Hadrians Wall, of whom you have a reasonable opinion? Not asking if you think highly of anyone; just if there's anyone of whom you don't have a low opinion?
I like Ken Clarke and the person being maligned there, Joanna Cherry is very good as well. I rated Angus Robertson when he was MP and of course the best politician of them all Alex Salmond. Majority are invisible professional troughers so hard to know. In days gone by there were many many great politicians, nowadays you would be lucky to get a handful of decent principled ones.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @isam said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > He is going to make me vote TBP. > > > > Isn’t ‘traitors’ one of those words that, without widespread denouncement, tar all people on the side of those who make it with the same brush? > > Guy Verhofstadt already considers us to all be part of a federal Europe, and operates, politically, on that basis. > > So, according to his world view, Farage is a traitor to the European Union.
> @malcolmg said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1130020264870273024 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism. > > > > > > On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true. > > > > > > Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that. > > > > > > > > > > > > An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town. > > > PS: Hutcheon is a tit. > > > > Just as a matter of interest Malc, is there anyone in public life, N or S of Hadrians Wall, of whom you have a reasonable opinion? Not asking if you think highly of anyone; just if there's anyone of whom you don't have a low opinion? > > I like Ken Clarke and the person being maligned there, Joanna Cherry is very good as well. I rated Angus Robertson when he was MP and of course the best politician of them all Alex Salmond. Majority are invisible professional troughers so hard to know. In days gone by there were many many great politicians, nowadays you would be lucky to get a handful of decent principled ones.
I went off Clarke when he called ambulance drivers 'glorified bus drivers'. Mind, they're paramedics now with a lot of training. I thought highly of Salmond, but I'm bothered about the court case.
To be clear, it is fine if Verhofstadt wants to rant about his opponents, particularly if he is right. But even if he is right, being smug and self satisfied about his own superiority without a care in the world for why anyone ever dared disagree with his clearly more enlightened views, does not strike me as a sensible longer term strategy.
And no, when he and others after a good result for 'evil' populists make token comments about 'reform' (token because his rants show his true views) that does not count as combining his passionate attacks on his enemies with a plan to address why people were supporting those enemies.
They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
If he was intending to convince anyone not already in agreement with him, then it wasn’t well said at all. ‘Traitor’ is a term which ought to be used only in its strict legal context. As a political insult it is divisive and counterproductive.
They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
What's the difference between that and being an American poodle and doing the military industrial complex's bidding? They're both foreign powers. Being unduly influenced by any foreign power is worthy of condemnation, but why is the second just seen as being a jolly good chap.
> @CarlottaVance said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520 > > > > > > > > Well said by Guy Verhofstadt . > > > > > > They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding . > > > > Of course it's much easier to see Reds Under The Bed than actually tackle the issues that give these guys traction, eh Guy? > > As someone observed, Verhofstadt is turning into the EU’s Lord Adonis - we’ll meaning but counter productive.
Monster Raving Loony Party are 1000-1 with Ladbrokes and Corals. With 15 candidates and the possibility of a low turnout, 3000 or 15% of the votes could win it. Surely there are 3000 people in Peterborough with a sense of humour. I have had a modest investment as it must be the value bet
Comments
A Tory leadership contest may help the logjam, but probably the mechanism that logjam is resolved by is collapse of the government.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > The YouGov numbers for the South West are interesting:
> > > > >
> > > > > BXP 42%
> > > > > LDEM 20%
> > > > > GRN 12%
> > > > > CON 9%
> > > > > LAB 8%
> > > > > CUK 4%
> > > >
> > > > The Lab figure is quite a bit lower than I would have thought, the rest round about what I would have expected with BXP up from what UKIP got, the Tories marmalised and LDs with a great recovery.
> > > >
> > > > No seats for Lab or Con if that is right I think?
> > >
> > > Make that 4-1-1. Not very proportional. But thems the rules...
> >
> > Just a few switches from Chuk to LD makes it 3-2-1. Surely A Chuk vote is now pointless in any part of the country.
>
> I do very much enjoy the fact that there is one brexit party and three remain parties.
Yet brexiters will be totting up any Conservative votes in the "will of the people" column.
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse
>
>
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
>
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape
>
>
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> If as every poll outside of YouGov indicates we finish second with 20 something points then it doesn't really seem like we are following the Conservatives in spectacular collapse, that is pretty much our performance in the last European election.
>
> I am enjoying your sudden change to Boris supporter.
>
> Edit: Panelbase for example has us joint second in Scotland.
>
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129907848182403072
>
>
>
> I realise you may like the YouGov polls but there is no reason to accept they are right and other polls are wrong unless you have some extra information.
Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
With an LD contest too it could be all change by conference season.
I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter?
You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views.
Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition.
Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic?
I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > > > This should terrify the Tories
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Who the Tories have apparently lost.
> > >
> > > True, but largely because they have lost everyone!
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > As in 2016, it's the 40-44 age group that provide the tipping point.
>
> Great, I have another 18 months before I become a vile reactionary bigot.
You don't need 18 months...
Mr Morrison genuinely can now do whatever the hell he likes.This is a man who — in one evening — has won the hysterical adulation of his horridly divided party, condemned Labor to a painful round of internal recrimination and grief, won Government without the tedious overhang of rash or unachievable campaign promises, and taken Clive Palmer for 60 million big ones without actually having to deal with the bloke in the Senate...
Scott Morrison's campaign was extremely economical; just one guy, with mainly one message, which was "I can be trusted to manage the economy. The other guy can't".
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/annabel-crabb-election-result-2019-scott-morrison-mandate/11127994
> Mr. B2, fallen, shortened, improved, if you like.
>
> With tiny stakes, I backed them and BP to top London, so either suits me.
Subject to the usual health warnings regarding the accuracy of the polls, it's not wholly inconceivable - based on the way the vote in London has splintered, and how close the Brexit Party are to the Lib Dems - that the Brexit Party could sneak first place in London.
That would be rather amusing.
More generally, what we might stand to see - if Brexit polarization is allowed to continue and to deepen - is the threat of the Scottish situation replicating itself in England. By which I mean, there is one dominant party representing one half of the referendum divide, whereas the other side is split three ways - and look what's happened there.
To clarify, I do not expect a Brexit Party victory in the next General Election. If they can manage to hang together and develop a full policy platform after these EU elections then they might be able to replace the SNP as the third party in the Commons, but the Tories and Labour *appear* so entrenched as to be immovable. Though then again, Scottish Labour looked invincible for decades, til all of a sudden they weren't.
He's made a colossal number of mistakes.
His saving grace is that everyone else has made at least as many.
(edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
> This should terrify the Tories
>
> https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
>
------------
Impressive chart. The Tories don't appeal to the young because they are bunch of reactionaries. They no longer appeal to the old because they aren't reactionary enough. Not quite as desperate for Labour but bad enough. They are losing their support across the piece.
> Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
>
>
>
> Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
>
> So you are not basing it on the polls?
>
> I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter?
>
> You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views.
>
> Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition.
>
> Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic?
>
> I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
I do not expect you to trust me. I can be wrong, and have been on many occassions, but it is not difficult to pick up the trend both in the media and generally and it is clear the two parties with a stated objective ( just leave TBP or remain the lib dems) are gaining thousands of voters daily at the expense of both conservatives and labour
I am very realistic when I accept the conservatives will be traduced but I am also realistic enough to see labour going the same way. A few percentage points difference in the polls is not any consolation when you consider how the poll ratings for both parties have collapsed
I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
> @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
>
> TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
>
> I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
>
> I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
>
> Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
http://cicerossongs.blogspot.com/2010/01/implosion-of-british-power.html
https://twitter.com/bairdjulia/status/1129716765347332096?s=21
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
>
> But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
>
> At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
>
> Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
>
> While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
>
> (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
>
>
>
> That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks.
>
> And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
You need somebody to beat Johnson. Not seeing who that is.
The evidence equally doesn't point to Labour doing great in the Euro elections so we can point out the Australian example to anyone who says Labour aren't doing great?
> I think we’ll be close to the point where the Cabinet resigns en masse, politely telling her that she’s done as much as she can, but that it’s now time for someone else to have a go.
>
> What does "have a go" mean?
>
> Changing leader does not change the Parliamentary arithmetic (maybe slightly worse)
>
> When May goes there will be a by-election in Maidenhead which the tories will contrive to lose so there's -1 for the shit deal before you start.
I am not convinced TM will resign her seat. TM political history is very much tied into being a constituency mp and she does seem to be at home looking after her constituents
You may be right that she will leave parliament but I would be surprised if she did it immediately
> Maybe BXP are a lay
>
> https://twitter.com/bairdjulia/status/1129716765347332096
As the clear favourite I guess so. Turnout is the big unknown - and is likely to have a big impact on the actual result.
I was pointing out such evidence as we have is worthless. We've just had yet another demonstration of that.
So therefore I think it is valid to consider somebody's judgement ahead of it, although feel free to disagree.
Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
More seriously, I would have said on past form he'll start well, make a huge gaffe, apologise clumsily making matters worse and somehow contrive to come last.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ46I3kMOr0
https://youtu.be/5c_UO5PCklY
Most polls show Labour gaining seats in Westminster and holding steady in Euro elections, I'll happily take that.
*Which is true in that it is seats that matter for exercising power but the are other reasons percentage is important.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
>
> >
>
> > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
>
> >
>
> > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
>
> >
>
> > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
>
> >
>
> > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
>
>
>
> If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
>
> I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government...
>
> Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
>
> Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something has to change. Essentially the leadership have treated some of its supporters rather poorly on the assumption they have nowhere to go. They now have somewhere to go and have gone there.
Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that.
Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > Polls are polls but being in denial of labours impending electoral disaster is natural when you really cannot believe what is happening. As far as Boris is concerned I do not support him, nor will I vote for him in the members ballot, but being pragmatic and realistic this is where the fallout is going and I accept it
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Maybe you should have a more realistic and pragmatic opinion on labour's forthcoming EU disaster
>
> >
>
> > So you are not basing it on the polls?
>
> >
>
> > I am supposed to trust your intuition on the matter?
>
> >
>
> > You seem like a nice guy but we have very different political views.
>
> >
>
> > Even YouGov's Westminster VI would see us gaining seats in a general election. Everyone else's recent polls would see us as the governing party some with a majority some as the only realistic leading party in a coalition.
>
> >
>
> > Our Euro election results (outside of YouGov) show us finishing 2nd on 20 something points to a Farage led Eurosceptic party. Funnily enough the result we had last time. You may be desperate for Labour to have as bad an election as the Conservatives but you are allowing your emotions to cloud your judgement, most of the evidence points towards Labour having a very average night. Maybe you should be more realistic?
>
> >
>
> > I am not stating exactly what will happen (the truth is I don't know) but I can't see why I should trust you against most of the available evidence. Have you got some extra information?
>
>
>
> I do not expect you to trust me. I can be wrong, and have been on many occassions, but it is not difficult to pick up the trend both in the media and generally and it is clear the two parties with a stated objective ( just leave TBP or remain the lib dems) are gaining thousands of voters daily at the expense of both conservatives and labour
>
>
>
> I am very realistic when I accept the conservatives will be traduced but I am also realistic enough to see labour going the same way. A few percentage points difference in the polls is not any consolation when you consider how the poll ratings for both parties have collapsed
>
> As people used in criticism against Corbyn, the percentage is meaningless*, it is the seats that matter.
>
> Most polls show Labour gaining seats in Westminster and holding steady in Euro elections, I'll happily take that.
>
> *Except it did matter for that election for non legislation reasons, it is seats that matter for exercising power though which is much more what the next election will be about for Labour.
Even that could change in the next few months with new leaders for the conservatives and lib dems and the fallout of the EU elections causing realignment of politics both here and throughout the EU
Polls can be wrong but they are better than nothing generally. You can find individuals expressing almost any viewpoint so that can end up a case of choosing the viewpoint you want to hear. Big G offers a view but why should I listen to his judgement over a left winger or a centrist for example or even a right winger with a different opinion?
On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
> https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1130023013955657728
Don’t think Liz quite gets that not everyone wants their own meme for faux outrage.
As I mentioned earlier whilst it does have obvious potential upsides there are potential downsides electorally, do you disagree and think there is only potential upside from it?
How good is the withdrawal agreement?
How good is Rory Stewart?
In Britain l want everyone to get a go to have a go
Etc etc
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
>
> But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
>
> At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
>
> Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
>
> While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
>
> (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
>
>
>
> That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks.
>
> And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
>
> On that subject incidentally, this post from nine years ago by somebody who posts regularly on here seems pretty prescient:
>
> http://cicerossongs.blogspot.com/2010/01/implosion-of-british-power.html
The comments are pertinent, too!
> Trump
That is a superb video demonstrating the value of the wit, insight and inside knowledge of the professionals. Diddly squat.
> https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
He is going to make me vote TBP.
In this case that could point either way.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
> >
> > The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
> >
> > TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
> >
> > As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
> >
> > This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
> >
> > But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
> >
> > At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
> >
> > Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
> >
> > While I’m sympathetic to the drift of that, how come the new rude, arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest leader works for the Tories and not for Labour ?
> >
> > (edit I suppose there is the charisma of a comatose slug thing.)
> >
> >
> >
> > That is a reasonable question, but my answer would be that a Labour leader would represent continuity with Corbyn without the few benefits, while a Tory leader will in all likelihood mean change from May's approach with many of the same drawbacks.
> >
> > And incidentally I still do not expect Johnson to win.
>
> You need somebody to beat Johnson. Not seeing who that is.
Neither am I. He might win for the same reason May has stayed in office so long. No-one obviously better.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > > This should terrify the Tories
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1129454738335051776?s=21
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Though older people tend to be habitual voters.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Who the Tories have apparently lost.
> >
> > True, but largely because they have lost everyone!
> >
> >
>
>
> As in 2016, it's the 40-44 age group that provide the tipping point.
The Tories can probably survive in office a good while yet, and remain competitive, if they're just winning the over 40s.
IMHO, they cannot do so with just the over 55s.
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > > @TheJezziah said:
> >
> > > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
> >
> >
> >
> > If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
> >
> > I don't want to turn into HYUFD and keep banging on about polls but most of them show us forming the next government...
> >
> > Do you mean you want Labour to change to a second ref policy?
> >
> > Or are you just on about dumping Corbyn?
>
> I am agnostic on how the change happens, but something has to change. Essentially the leadership have treated some of its supporters rather poorly on the assumption they have nowhere to go. They now have somewhere to go and have gone there.
>
> Your focus on the polls relies on the weakness of others continuing. I would not base my strategy on that.
>
> Labour needs to offer something to the people it has disappointed.
I see Labour as a very serious threat to me and my family. I expect a Corbyn-led Britain to actively undermine our armed forces and intelligence services out of ideology, launch as many Marxist experiments with the economy as it can, tax me out of my home and destroy my savings.
No matter how embarrassing and cringeworthy a Tory Government might be, why wouldn't a swing voter move heaven and earth to stop Labour?
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > @TheJezziah is it possible that Jeremy made a few mistakes in his position on Brexit?
> >
> > TBH it was this or going more remain at some point sooner. At least they seem the only viable ones to me in terms of members, voters and MPs.
> >
> > I think there are advantages and disadvantages either way, I assume your criticism is from a more remainy direction?
> >
> > I don't think going full on 2nd ref position is without its potential costs, I can see the advantage to reluctantly taking up that position because the situation has developed that way. I think a Lib Dem approach to Brexit would have boosted Labour for the Euro elections but I'm much less convinced on the effect on a potential GE.
> >
> > Personally I would like a 2nd ref my slight reluctance is because I'm unsure about the electoral effects.
>
> If Labour carry on as they are defeat seems inevitable. Substantial change is required to avoid the catastrophe of a right wing govt. But change seems to be impossible for Labour. It’s quite tragic.
>
The longer Labour are kept out-of-office, the better.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
> He is going to make me vote TBP.
>
> Isn’t ‘traitors’ one of those words that, without widespread denouncement, tar all people on the side of those who make it with the same brush?
Guy Verhofstadt already considers us to all be part of a federal Europe, and operates, politically, on that basis.
So, according to his world view, Farage is a traitor to the European Union.
Does he think it because people are dumb or because they are evil? Or might it be because even if the ones he hates are as bad as he says, his approach is one that does not meet the needs of a large chunk of voters.
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
>
> But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
>
> At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
>
> Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
>
> You been at the sherry. More chance of me being Pope
I think you’d be quite good at it, malcolm.
You’d just have to change your one true faith.
> Labour are going down with the conservatives next thursday in a spectacular collapse.
>
> The way this is going the only way out for the conservatives will be to elect Boris (there I said it ) and co-operate with TBP to capture the near 50% who want out.
>
> TM has to go by the end of the first week in June and let the succession contest take shape.
>
> As for labour they are in as bad a place as the conservatives in leave seats, Scotland and Wales
>
> This is the odd thing. Superficially, Labour are doing better than the Tories right now (as they bloody well ought).
>
> But I can see a way back for the Tories to win the next election. Deliver Brexit and the people flocking to the latest Farage vehicle will either come back or vanish entirely. Get rid of May and a new leader will probably represent a fresh start, even if it's a leader as bad as Johnson.
>
> At the moment I really cannot see a way out for Labour. A second referendum might help, but they've dithered for so long even if Corbyn now has a volte-face they'll have little credibility. And even if Corbyn dies, which as far as I can see is the only way he'll leave before he chooses to, the membership will elect a Corbyn mini-me like Long-Bailey, Burgon or Pidcock, who might actually be worse (because they are extremely rude as well as arrogant, lazy, stupid and dishonest, which as we are repeatedly told by those who know him Corbyn isn't).
>
> Who knows what's going to happen next? But Swinson for next PM after May's successor might not be the worst bet in the world.
>
> More chance of me being Pope
>
> You will have a tough job in front of you, may I recommend starting with some interfaith cooperation to build up good will.
>
>
> Need to become a Catholic first I expect.
Depends how far they copy the Anglicans.
> https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
>
>
>
> Does he wonder why such obviously unfit people include the leader of the most popular party of Italy, and others? Honestly there are times I actually like verhofstadt but like any fanatic he does not appear to have a self reflective bone in his body and he has the same answer and solution to any issue, never seeming to be curious why people turn to Russian backed liars or whatever.
>
> Does he think it because people are dumb or because they are evil? Or might it be because even if the ones he hates are as bad as he says, his approach is one that does not meet the needs of a large chunk of voters.
+1
> https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
Well said by Guy Verhofstadt .
They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
> https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1130020264870273024
>
>
>
> An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
>
> On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
>
> Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that.
>
>
>
> An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town.
> PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
Just as a matter of interest Malc, is there anyone in public life, N or S of Hadrians Wall, of whom you have a reasonable opinion? Not asking if you think highly of anyone; just if there's anyone of whom you don't have a low opinion?
Rants like his are very satisfying, especially when correct, but are not enough and can be self defeating and counter productive. There are people who try to persuade of the advantages of the EU and specific values in it. Verhofstadt does do that sometimes but too often he seems to go the williamglenn route of treating the EU and its rules as a crushing inevitability, which is not selling the positives well .
People loved and still love to satisfy themselves with rants about how bad trump is but not enough actually addressing the needs of those tempted by him for instance. I hope they dont make that mistake again. As for Verhofstadt his group is the 4th biggest I think, he does not embody European values like he thinks he does. And what will he do if those traitors end up more popular than him?
I hope they dont but they might and his self satisfied rant wont mean much then.
They have a London left media and a membership skewed towards London trying to tell them that what's good for London Labour is what they need to win in Britain.
The Leave/Remain chasm in Labour is to some extent a London (the white, affluent, zones 1-3 parts) versus the rest situation.
That's why the criticism of Starmer by some of Corbyn's followers has a fair degree of truth in it.
The London Labour BAME vote which has no significant affiliation to the EU isn't arguing for a referendum and will vote Labour.
The Labour vote in the NW is to a degree looking very secure. The Starmer line however is killing Labour in many long standing Labour regions if the polls are correct.
London seems to be the be-all and end-all.
> My point was the evidence can point one way and the reality be another.
>
> How many of us - me included - expected an easy Tory victory in 2017 based on the evidence we had?
Worth remembering that in 2017 both the YouGov model and Survation had more favourable results for Labour than occurred. The evidence was there, but it was discounted because it didn't fit with the expectations created by earlier evidence.
In general people tend to discount the uncertainty. The results in 2017, the Brexit referendum and the election of Trump were all within the uncertainty bounds of the polling evidence. I haven't looked at this Australian election, so I don't know whether that's true there too.
The narrative that grew from the polling evidence was more certain - and as it turns out, wrong. We will see which narrative around the EU elections turns out to be wide of the mark. The polling uncertainty covers a wide range of outcomes.
All of them are under threat by Brexit. Jumping one way or the other would maximize the gains in some. Doing nothing is maximizing the losses in each of them.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
>
> Well said by Guy Verhofstadt .
>
> They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
Of course it's much easier to see Reds Under The Bed than actually tackle the issues that give these guys traction, eh Guy?
> https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
Verhofstadt is as much of an extremist as the politicians he vilifies.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
> >
> > Well said by Guy Verhofstadt .
> >
> > They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
>
> Of course it's much easier to see Reds Under The Bed than actually tackle the issues that give these guys traction, eh Guy?
Agreed
> > @isam said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > He is going to make me vote TBP.
> >
> > Isn’t ‘traitors’ one of those words that, without widespread denouncement, tar all people on the side of those who make it with the same brush?
>
> Guy Verhofstadt already considers us to all be part of a federal Europe, and operates, politically, on that basis.
>
> So, according to his world view, Farage is a traitor to the European Union.
One fanatic denounces rival fanatics.
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1130020264870273024
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > An intriguing headline, I cannot tell if that is meant to be praise or criticism.
>
> >
>
> > On the discussion about labour thrust do appear to have been written off too quickly. They might still be second, the assumption most of their voters wont go anyway might still be proven true.
>
> >
>
> > Described by an SNP ‘insider’ as ‘intelligent but not clever’, so there’s that.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > An insider with no backbone, scared to give their name. Sounds like a snake in the grass to me more like. Cowardly creeps like that should be tarred and feathered and run out of town.
>
> > PS: Hutcheon is a tit.
>
>
>
> Just as a matter of interest Malc, is there anyone in public life, N or S of Hadrians Wall, of whom you have a reasonable opinion? Not asking if you think highly of anyone; just if there's anyone of whom you don't have a low opinion?
>
> I like Ken Clarke and the person being maligned there, Joanna Cherry is very good as well. I rated Angus Robertson when he was MP and of course the best politician of them all Alex Salmond. Majority are invisible professional troughers so hard to know. In days gone by there were many many great politicians, nowadays you would be lucky to get a handful of decent principled ones.
I went off Clarke when he called ambulance drivers 'glorified bus drivers'. Mind, they're paramedics now with a lot of training.
I thought highly of Salmond, but I'm bothered about the court case.
And no, when he and others after a good result for 'evil' populists make token comments about 'reform' (token because his rants show his true views) that does not count as combining his passionate attacks on his enemies with a plan to address why people were supporting those enemies.
‘Traitor’ is a term which ought to be used only in its strict legal context. As a political insult it is divisive and counterproductive.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1129728300111339520
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Well said by Guy Verhofstadt .
>
> >
>
> > They’re Russian poodles and are doing Putin’s bidding .
>
>
>
> Of course it's much easier to see Reds Under The Bed than actually tackle the issues that give these guys traction, eh Guy?
>
> As someone observed, Verhofstadt is turning into the EU’s Lord Adonis - we’ll meaning but counter productive.
His intervention may yet get me to vote....
I have had a modest investment as it must be the value bet