> @AndyJS said: > The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
Two ex-leaders' seats, includign Wentworth which was Turnbull's old seat vacated seven months ago (and not yet called; margin sits at 0.4%)
> @Nigelb said: > > @Nigelb said: > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > Of course not. > But it is transparently obvious that the elderly, looked at as a group, are totally at odds with their children and particularly their voting age grandchildren on their views on the future. > > You side of the argument have failed utterly to address that other than to say we know better.
As I've said many times on here I voted Remain and would do so again. If I recall correctly one of the reasons the referendum was lost was a much lower turnout among the young than older people. You don 't vote then suck it up to coin a phrase. Questioning the legitimacy of a person's right to vote on the grounds of age or anything else is a slippery slope to go down. The vote was held and the result was clear. The democratic imperative is to implement it and make it work. Only afterwards is it legitimate to vote again.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change. > I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around.
As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > @felix said: > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > > > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > > > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > > > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me. > > > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust. > > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change. >
I'm not sure that's necessarily so. Any significant fall in taxation revenues would certainly impact those at the bottom. Also some on the Leave side seem to have a vision of very Singapore-style economy with a much reduced welfare state. If that were to be implemented, those at the bottom would be some of the worst hit.
> @FF43 said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > > > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too. > > > > > > ____________ > > > > > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.< > > > > > > ++++ > > > > It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business. > > > > That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed. > > > > I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term. > > > > The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter. > > > > ________________ > > I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster. > > Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
It was more than just employment they got wrong. They forecast house price falls, wages to fall and public sector borrowing to increase, all wrong.
They got GDP growth would slow correct, sterling to fall and inflation to rise correct.
The central assumption they got wrong was that consumer confidence would fall by so much, because of worry about the future and need to batten down the hatches that the consumer would stop spending. I though this illogical at the time because at least 50% of the population would be happy and a decent percentage of the other half would not really care.
> @nichomar said: > > @Marco1 said: > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ? > > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
> @felix said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > @felix said: > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > > > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > > > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > > > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me. > > > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust. > > Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result.
I get that. All I'm saying that the Leave campaign, while using the "betrayal" meme very successfully now, could find themselves hoist by their own petard in the future.
If that happens, there will be no consensus let alone moving on from Brexit in the foreseeable future.
As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
Yet you don't seem to find anything remarkable about the inability of any pro-Brexit politician being able to convince a supermajority to get behind a project that you think could have "overall benefits", even though it was supported by 52% in a referendum?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @felix said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @numbertwelve said: > > > > > @felix said: > > > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > > > > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > > > > > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > > > > > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > > > > > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me. > > > > > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust. > > > > Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result. > > > I get that. All I'm saying that the Leave campaign, while using the "betrayal" meme very successfully now, could find themselves hoist by their own petard in the future. > > If that happens, there will be no consensus let alone moving on from Brexit in the foreseeable future.
The issue has for the moment paralysed the entire political system in ways which noe of us fully understand while in the midst of the storm. Living away from it in the sunshine of rural southern Spain makes it bearable for me but I am sad to see the nation brought so low.
> @Byronic said: > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse. > > >
Yes. But how do you tell people who voted Leave for what they saw as compelling reasons and are impatient that the thing hasn't been delivered, that the fault doesn't lie with politicians but with Brexit itself and they made a mistake voting for it. You can only solve a problem by identifying it first. In this case the problem is quite a simple one: Brexit is a bad idea, given what the UK is and what people say they want.
> @felix said: > > @nichomar said: > > > @Marco1 said: > > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ? > > > > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things. > > Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
As a black, jewish, and aging female do I get bonus points?
Are they the same bonus points as a non-black, non-jewish, non-female, and non-aging person might collect?
> @AndyJS said: > The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
The rich can afford to posture in the safe knowledge the proles are likely to vote the right way.
> @williamglenn said: > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse. > > Yet you don't seem to find anything remarkable about the inability of any pro-Brexit politician being able to convince a supermajority to get behind a project that you think could have "overall benefits", even though it was supported by 52% in a referendum? <
++++++
You what? I said it *could* have overall benefits, but only after a lot of pain, possibly severe pain - if Corbyn rides to power on the back of this chaos. And that's only COULD.
It could also be entirely negative.
I don't understand the rest of your incoherent point, so I shan't address it.
The nation needs to elect Nigel as PM and then let him enact No Deal Brexit. Of course, vast suffering will ensue, but I can't think of any other way of draining the poison.
> @FF43 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change. > > > I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around. >
Issues like the bedroom tax and universal credit show there is a floor to what the public will accept on benefits and we are probably near it already. The people squeezed will be those working.
For most workers it wont be particularly noticeable as it will be more an unnecessary extension of austerity rather than big changes. If we keep a close relationship with the EU, there are already funds in place to start reversing many of the austerity cuts which would start to help the economy.
For a small but significant proportion of workers they will lose good jobs with multinationals and their suppliers and then fall into the precariat, on minimum wage and/or zero hour contracts, those are the people who will be hit hardest.
You what? I said it *could* have overall benefits, but only after a lot of pain, possibly severe pain - if Corbyn rides to power on the back of this chaos. And that's only COULD.
It could also be entirely negative.
I don't understand the rest of your incoherent point, so I shan't address it.
And what if Corbyn doesn't ride to power. What if a "plausible and charismatic" pro-Brexit leader harnesses the feeling of betrayal to make it directly to Number 10?
> @Cyclefree said: > > I'm not sure that's necessarily so. Any significant fall in taxation revenues would certainly impact those at the bottom. Also some on the Leave side seem to have a vision of very Singapore-style economy with a much reduced welfare state. If that were to be implemented, those at the bottom would be some of the worst hit. > >
I suspect many of those wanting a 'Singapore on Thames' have many misconceptions of what such a thing would entail.
It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
> @FF43 said: > > @Byronic said: > > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse. > > > > > > > > Yes. But how do you tell people who voted Leave for what they saw as compelling reasons and are impatient that the thing hasn't been delivered, that the fault doesn't lie with politicians but with Brexit itself and they made a mistake voting for it. You can only solve a problem by identifying it first. In this case the problem is quite a simple one: Brexit is a bad idea, given what the UK is and what people say they want. <
++++
I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
> @felix said: > > @nichomar said: > > > @Marco1 said: > > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ? > > > > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things. > > Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
I was just pointing out that this desire to leave is driven by my age group 65+ Which I fail to understand as they should be more aware of the benefits of stability in Europe since the first iron steel and coal federation was formed.
Nice that Stephen Fry has finally been recognized for all his good work in being Stephen Fry. Hard to imagine there would be a Stephen Fry without him.
> @Omnium said: > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019? > > depends how well he does, > > It may morph to 'I've always liked our Great Leader'
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > > > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change. > > > > > I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around. > > > > Issues like the bedroom tax and universal credit show there is a floor to what the public will accept on benefits and we are probably near it already. The people squeezed will be those working. > > For most workers it wont be particularly noticeable as it will be more an unnecessary extension of austerity rather than big changes. If we keep a close relationship with the EU, there are already funds in place to start reversing many of the austerity cuts which would start to help the economy. > > For a small but significant proportion of workers they will lose good jobs with multinationals and their suppliers and then fall into the precariat, on minimum wage and/or zero hour contracts, those are the people who will be hit hardest.
________
The money won't be there and I think people will notice the further squeeze, but they won't necessarily blame Brexit.
> @FF43 said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > > > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too. > > > > > > ____________ > > > > > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.< > > > > > > ++++ > > > > It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business. > > > > That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed. > > > > I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term. > > > > The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter. > > > > ________________ > > I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster. > > Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
Following Shortens concession Scott Morrison now making his victory speech live on Sky News starting by saying 'I have always believed in miracles'. Attributes his victory to 'quiet Australian majority' to chants of 'Scott Mo'
I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable.
> @AndyJS said: > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
Polls also got it wrong in 1948 and 1992 too pre mass mobile phones, sometimes in close elections pollsters get it wrong
> @williamglenn said: > You what? I said it *could* have overall benefits, but only after a lot of pain, possibly severe pain - if Corbyn rides to power on the back of this chaos. And that's only COULD. > > It could also be entirely negative. > > I don't understand the rest of your incoherent point, so I shan't address it. > > And what if Corbyn doesn't ride to power. What if a "plausible and charismatic" pro-Brexit leader harnesses the feeling of betrayal to make it directly to Number 10? <
++++
An interesting question. It obviously depends who that leader is, and what he or she can get through parliament (i.e. will there be an election?)
If there is no election then any Brexiteer Tory - Boris, Raab - will face the same obstacles as T May. Who knows what BoJo would do then. 2nd vote? Any Tory leadership candidate will have to announce their plans for implementing Brexit. It will be fascinating.
If there is an election, and Farage wins (is that your implication?) then all bets are off. I'm not at all sure what the BXP believes on anything other than Brexit. They have candidates from all over the spectrum.
> @AndyJS said: > The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
Remainerville Australia, they lost them to Independents not Labor though
> @williamglenn said: > I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative. > > It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless. > > Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure. > > Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. <
++++
That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
> @AndyJS said: > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
> @ralphmalph said: > > I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster. > > > > Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment. > > It was more than just employment they got wrong. They forecast house price falls, wages to fall and public sector borrowing to increase, all wrong. > > They got GDP growth would slow correct, sterling to fall and inflation to rise correct. > > The central assumption they got wrong was that consumer confidence would fall by so much, because of worry about the future and need to batten down the hatches that the consumer would stop spending. I though this illogical at the time because at least 50% of the population would be happy and a decent percentage of the other half would not really care.
_________________
Bear in mind these figures are relative to the base case, ie. what difference does Brexit make? The accuracy also depends on how well we understand the counterfactuals.
Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
> > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
> >
> > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
>
> Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
I was just pointing out that this desire to leave is driven by my age group 65+ Which I fail to understand as they should be more aware of the benefits of stability in Europe since the first iron steel and coal federation was formed.
Perhaps the over 65s (doesn't include me) think:
that stability can be done well by another route that the democratic deficit is dangerous that they could not see their MEPs actually doing things and making a difference that if the EU was serious about our interests they would have negotiated seriously with David Cameron that the proper unit for deciding who can live in its borders is the nation state and not another body that our politicians were delegating too much to others and becoming weak and feeble that NATO matters more than the EU for stability that it is time to move on from the post war settlements and their consequences.
Who can possibly know. What I am sure of is that most remainers and most brexiteers are thoughtful political moderates, not being served well at the moment by Parliament, and that this is dangerous.
> It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
> @another_richard said: > > @AndyJS said: > > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point. > > I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
I doubt that is limited to political polling, I believe that a lot of market research and academic research faces similar problems. Getting good samples and honest answers is becoming increasingly dificult. There is enormous amount of garbage in, garbage out.
> The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
Two ex-leaders' seats, includign Wentworth which was Turnbull's old seat vacated seven months ago (and not yet called; margin sits at 0.4%)
Seems the Liberals lost the liberal elites but won the nation?
Mr. Isam, Farage was a drag on the Leave campaign.
Unfortunately for Remain, they thought that meant they could just use him to put people off voting to leave the EU, rather than making a coherent case.
> @brendan16 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah. > > > > Two ex-leaders' seats, includign Wentworth which was Turnbull's old seat vacated seven months ago (and not yet called; margin sits at 0.4%) > > Seems the Liberals lost the liberal elites but won the nation?
> @OldKingCole said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point. > > > > I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election. > > Voting in Australia is compulsory.
Fair point.
But how compulsory is 'compulsory' and how do you stop people spoiling their ballot ?
That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
Although it's possible that while waiting for a genius, and watching the spectacle of Farage laying waste to the major parties, an unexpected journeyman politician could rise to power as the saviour of Remain instead.
Australia has compulsory voting but at the last election only 13.5 million people voted which is pretty low for a country with around 17 million adults according to the last census. Suggests around 20% of adults are not registered to vote.
Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth
> @isam said: > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019? > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
We've reached the stage where the only good thing about Brexit is that it makes those who voted for it feel merry. But that's somewhat circular.
Well, we have record employment, wages outpacing inflation by some distance, public sector finances that are greatly improved, 800,000 jobs on the market..... it all looks a lot rosier than it did pre-June 2016.
One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate.
For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing.
> @HYUFD said: > Final Australian figures > > Coalition 41.5% Labor 33% on primary vote. > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth
Not really final figures. They've only counted 70% and that's only a provisional count. The official and final count will happen later. It's interesting how we're the only country in the world to count all the votes first and then announce the final result.
> @Roger said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > LOL, Penny Wong blaming the electorate for not being sophisticated enough. > > She's not wong...
Like Brexit, I'm sure they'll claim that voters didn't know what they were voting for. No, they knew exactly what they were voting for, and it wasn't for you.
> @Byronic said: > > @williamglenn said: > > I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative. > > > > It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless. > > > > Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure. > > > > Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. < > > ++++ > > That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave.
It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery.
At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself.
We've reached the stage where the only good thing about Brexit is that it makes those who voted for it feel merry. But that's somewhat circular.
Well, we have record employment, wages outpacing inflation by some distance, public sector finances that are greatly improved, 800,000 jobs on the market..... it all looks a lot rosier than it did pre-June 2016.
I suspect you're confusing 'Brexit' with 'the result of the referendum'. The difference is possibly non-trivial.
> @another_richard said: > > @OldKingCole said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point. > > > > > > I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election. > > > > Voting in Australia is compulsory. > > Fair point. > > But how compulsory is 'compulsory' and how do you stop people spoiling their ballot ?
AIUI, you can't. But as someone else has pointed out, not all the votes have been counted yet, so we haven't had a tally of the void votes.
> @RobD said: > Good news for the Liberals in Australia. Turns out people weren't swayed by that climate emergency guff.
Not really true, Morrison has said 'climate change is a “very real and serious issue” that demands attention' and 'He said the government was acting on climate change through initiatives such as the emissions reduction fund and the renewable energy target.'
> @matt said: > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate. > > For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing.
I thought Leave voters were bloated capitalists, who were all twirling their moustaches at the prospect of making the workers stew grass.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for... > >
So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
I'm always amazed that more people don't accidentally spoilt their ballot papers in Australia because voters have to rank every candidate and if they miss one off their vote is invalidated.
> @Jonathan said: > > @isam said: > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019? > > > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns > > I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > > > > > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for... > > > > > > So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Final Australian figures > > > > Coalition 41.5% Labor 33% on primary vote. > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > > > Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth > > Not really final figures. They've only counted 70% and that's only a provisional count. The official and final count will happen later. It's interesting how we're the only country in the world to count all the votes first and then announce the final result.
It won't change too much with only 5 seats left outstanding and Labor only ahead in 2 of them. Yes we are also one of the last countries that still votes with pencil and paper
> @MTimT said: > > @Byronic said: > > This is timely and apposite (and interesting) on the failure of Remain leadership, and the failures of Labour and Tories - re Farage and Brexit. > > > > > > > > http://www.bluelabour.org/2019/05/18/nigel-farage-and-our-democratic-nation/ > > Thanks for posting that. A very good piece (because I agree with it, of course )
And a Johnson-led Tory Party will go for the Faragist vote, irrespective of either the truth or the damage to the country. Look at poor Mrs Ratcliffe.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative. > > > > > > It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless. > > > > > > Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure. > > > > > > Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. < > > > > ++++ > > > > That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum. > > What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave. > > It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery. > > At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself.
Yet the recession Remainers predicted has never occurred and there are strawberries in the shops.
> @Torby_Fennel said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @isam said: > > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019? > > > > > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns > > > > I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom. > > I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him.
Farage is the folk-devil that the pro-EU left require to motivate their supporters.
> > What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave. > > It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery. > > At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself. <
++++
You're missing my point. I agree with much of what you say. It is indeed very arguable that the intellectual case for Leave has collapsed, and every claim made by Leavers has been falsified...
... in which case why isn't there one plausible convincing politician on the Remain side, who is able to argue this, and dramatically shift opinions? Someone who can capitalise on Leave's failures, without being snooty or histrionic, or hectoring or cringeworthy?
> One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate.
>
> For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing.
I thought Leave voters were bloated capitalists, who were all twirling their moustaches at the prospect of making the workers stew grass.
Yes, a significant element of the Leave intelligentsia believe that the masses have had it too easy in recent centuries and the return to a more feudal arrangement is desirable. The EU was seen as a significant obstacle in the implementation of this project. However, I wouldn't say this represents anywhere near the majority of Leave voters, not least because such an agenda needed to be kept secret from them.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Torby_Fennel said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019? > > > > > > > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns > > > > > > I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom. > > > > I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him. > > Farage is the folk-devil that the pro-EU left require to motivate their supporters.
Farage certainly fires me up to get out delivering our Lib Dem leaflets. We don't require him to motivate our supporters but he certainly helps.
> @Byronic said: > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse. > > >
A perceptive point - but they couldn't do because they deny why people voted Leave in the first place. They have spent three years telling Leavers why they voted Leave and not one day asking them WHY they voted leave.
> @Byronic said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave. > > > > It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery. > > > > At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself. < > > ++++ > > You're missing my point. I agree with much of what you say. It is indeed very arguable that the intellectual case for Leave has collapsed, and every claim made by Leavers has been falsified... > > ... in which case why isn't there one plausible convincing politician on the Remain side, who is able to argue this, and dramatically shift opinions? Someone who can capitalise on Leave's failures, without being snooty or histrionic, or hectoring or cringeworthy? > > Because I am afraid I cannot see one. > >
It simply isn’t time yet. At the moment almost all politicians are still formally committed to trying to find a Brexit that might work. They’re not yet making that case.
The public are ahead of the politicians in that respect.
> @A_View_From_Cumbria5 said: > > @Byronic said: > > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse. > > > > > > > > A perceptive point - but they couldn't do because they deny why people voted Leave in the first place. They have spent three years telling Leavers why they voted Leave and not one day asking them WHY they voted leave.
Leavers are racists scumbags stuck in the past. Is there anything more to know?
> @RobD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > > > > > > > > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for... > > > > > > > > > > So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people? > > 85% voted for parties that supported Brexit.
82% voted for parties supporting a Brexit deal 1.8% voted for parties supporting no deal
So as soon as leavers can agree a deal we can move on.
> @Stark_Dawning said: > > @matt said: > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate. > > > > > > For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing. > > > > I thought Leave voters were bloated capitalists, who were all twirling their moustaches at the prospect of making the workers stew grass. > > Yes, a significant element of the Leave intelligentsia believe that the masses have had it too easy in recent centuries and the return to a more feudal arrangement is desirable. The EU was seen as a significant obstacle in the implementation of this project. However, I wouldn't say this represents anywhere near the majority of Leave voters, not least because such an agenda needed to be kept secret from them.
Yet it was the Remain side which described higher wages as not a good thing.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @RobD said: > > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences. > > > > > > > > > > > > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people? > > > > 85% voted for parties that supported Brexit. > > 82% voted for parties supporting a Brexit deal > 1.8% voted for parties supporting no deal > > So as soon as leavers can agree a deal we can move on.
A shame a party that supports the deal has refused to vote for it three times in a row.
I suspect you're confusing 'Brexit' with 'the result of the referendum'. The difference is possibly non-trivial.
Merely voting for Brexit was meant to be a disaster. It's actually worked out quite well in terms of jobs, wages, the impact on government funding.
Failing to honour it has put Farage back in the game and it won't be long before Sturgeon is either.
There can be no justification for reneging on the 2016 vote and then telling the Scots they can't do the same over Sindy.
Agreed. The markets where incredibly naive. However, even as Remainer, I assumed that we'd somehow muddle through in the Great British way and total disaster would be averted. As for No Deal Brexit: I didn't even contemplate that, let alone think it would be become the Leavers' totem. I readily admit I was foolish, innocent and wrong. I'm sorry.
> @AndyJS said: > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
Australia SHOULD be a lot easier to model. Because of compulsory voting there should not be any weighting issues which result from differential turnout.
Comments
> The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
Two ex-leaders' seats, includign Wentworth which was Turnbull's old seat vacated seven months ago (and not yet called; margin sits at 0.4%)
> > @Nigelb said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
>
> >
>
> > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
>
>
>
> Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
>
> Of course not.
> But it is transparently obvious that the elderly, looked at as a group, are totally at odds with their children and particularly their voting age grandchildren on their views on the future.
>
> You side of the argument have failed utterly to address that other than to say we know better.
As I've said many times on here I voted Remain and would do so again. If I recall correctly one of the reasons the referendum was lost was a much lower turnout among the young than older people. You don 't vote then suck it up to coin a phrase. Questioning the legitimacy of a person's right to vote on the grounds of age or anything else is a slippery slope to go down. The vote was held and the result was clear. The democratic imperative is to implement it and make it work. Only afterwards is it legitimate to vote again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election
>
> On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
>
I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @numbertwelve said:
> > > > @felix said:
> > > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > > > >
> > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> > > >
> > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> > >
> > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
> > >
> > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
> > >
> > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
> >
> > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
>
> On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
>
I'm not sure that's necessarily so. Any significant fall in taxation revenues would certainly impact those at the bottom. Also some on the Leave side seem to have a vision of very Singapore-style economy with a much reduced welfare state. If that were to be implemented, those at the bottom would be some of the worst hit.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> >
> > > >
> > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
> > >
> > > ____________
> > >
> > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.<
> >
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business.
> >
> > That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed.
> >
> > I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
> >
> > The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter.
> >
>
> ________________
>
> I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster.
>
> Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
It was more than just employment they got wrong. They forecast house price falls, wages to fall and public sector borrowing to increase, all wrong.
They got GDP growth would slow correct, sterling to fall and inflation to rise correct.
The central assumption they got wrong was that consumer confidence would fall by so much, because of worry about the future and need to batten down the hatches that the consumer would stop spending. I though this illogical at the time because at least 50% of the population would be happy and a decent percentage of the other half would not really care.
> > @Marco1 said:
> > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
>
> That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
> Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
depends how well he does,
It may morph to 'I've always liked our Great Leader'
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @numbertwelve said:
> > > > @felix said:
> > > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > > > >
> > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> > > >
> > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> > >
> > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
> > >
> > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
> > >
> > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
> >
> > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
>
> Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result.
I get that. All I'm saying that the Leave campaign, while using the "betrayal" meme very successfully now, could find themselves hoist by their own petard in the future.
If that happens, there will be no consensus let alone moving on from Brexit in the foreseeable future.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @numbertwelve said:
> > > > > @felix said:
> > > > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> > > > >
> > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> > > >
> > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
> > > >
> > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
> > > >
> > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
> > >
> > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
> >
> > Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result.
>
>
> I get that. All I'm saying that the Leave campaign, while using the "betrayal" meme very successfully now, could find themselves hoist by their own petard in the future.
>
> If that happens, there will be no consensus let alone moving on from Brexit in the foreseeable future.
The issue has for the moment paralysed the entire political system in ways which noe of us fully understand while in the midst of the storm. Living away from it in the sunshine of rural southern Spain makes it bearable for me but I am sad to see the nation brought so low.
> As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
>
>
>
Yes. But how do you tell people who voted Leave for what they saw as compelling reasons and are impatient that the thing hasn't been delivered, that the fault doesn't lie with politicians but with Brexit itself and they made a mistake voting for it. You can only solve a problem by identifying it first. In this case the problem is quite a simple one: Brexit is a bad idea, given what the UK is and what people say they want.
> > @nichomar said:
> > > @Marco1 said:
> > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
> >
> > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
>
> Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
As a black, jewish, and aging female do I get bonus points?
Are they the same bonus points as a non-black, non-jewish, non-female, and non-aging person might collect?
> The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
The rich can afford to posture in the safe knowledge the proles are likely to vote the right way.
> As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
>
> Yet you don't seem to find anything remarkable about the inability of any pro-Brexit politician being able to convince a supermajority to get behind a project that you think could have "overall benefits", even though it was supported by 52% in a referendum? <
++++++
You what? I said it *could* have overall benefits, but only after a lot of pain, possibly severe pain - if Corbyn rides to power on the back of this chaos. And that's only COULD.
It could also be entirely negative.
I don't understand the rest of your incoherent point, so I shan't address it.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> >
> > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
> >
> I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around.
>
Issues like the bedroom tax and universal credit show there is a floor to what the public will accept on benefits and we are probably near it already. The people squeezed will be those working.
For most workers it wont be particularly noticeable as it will be more an unnecessary extension of austerity rather than big changes. If we keep a close relationship with the EU, there are already funds in place to start reversing many of the austerity cuts which would start to help the economy.
For a small but significant proportion of workers they will lose good jobs with multinationals and their suppliers and then fall into the precariat, on minimum wage and/or zero hour contracts, those are the people who will be hit hardest.
>
> I'm not sure that's necessarily so. Any significant fall in taxation revenues would certainly impact those at the bottom. Also some on the Leave side seem to have a vision of very Singapore-style economy with a much reduced welfare state. If that were to be implemented, those at the bottom would be some of the worst hit.
>
>
I suspect many of those wanting a 'Singapore on Thames' have many misconceptions of what such a thing would entail.
> > @Byronic said:
> > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
> >
> >
> >
>
> Yes. But how do you tell people who voted Leave for what they saw as compelling reasons and are impatient that the thing hasn't been delivered, that the fault doesn't lie with politicians but with Brexit itself and they made a mistake voting for it. You can only solve a problem by identifying it first. In this case the problem is quite a simple one: Brexit is a bad idea, given what the UK is and what people say they want. <
++++
I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
> > @nichomar said:
> > > @Marco1 said:
> > > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
> >
> > That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
>
> Again you would not make the same point if you were to substitute 'black', 'Jewish', 'Female' etc for the word 'Aging' .... or would you???
I was just pointing out that this desire to leave is driven by my age group 65+ Which I fail to understand as they should be more aware of the benefits of stability in Europe since the first iron steel and coal federation was formed.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
>
> depends how well he does,
>
> It may morph to 'I've always liked our Great Leader'
Well he might get the trains running on time.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > >
> > > On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
> > >
> > I think they perceive that to be the case. In fact anyone who is reliant on the state will be squeezed by there being fewer revenues to spend. Also those at the bottom have fewer prospectus of going up. But it remains that the "liberal elite" much as I hate that term being abused by Farage types did a woeful job of spreading the globalisation bounty around.
> >
>
> Issues like the bedroom tax and universal credit show there is a floor to what the public will accept on benefits and we are probably near it already. The people squeezed will be those working.
>
> For most workers it wont be particularly noticeable as it will be more an unnecessary extension of austerity rather than big changes. If we keep a close relationship with the EU, there are already funds in place to start reversing many of the austerity cuts which would start to help the economy.
>
> For a small but significant proportion of workers they will lose good jobs with multinationals and their suppliers and then fall into the precariat, on minimum wage and/or zero hour contracts, those are the people who will be hit hardest.
________
The money won't be there and I think people will notice the further squeeze, but they won't necessarily blame Brexit.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> >
> > > >
> > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
> > >
> > > ____________
> > >
> > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.<
> >
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business.
> >
> > That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed.
> >
> > I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
> >
> > The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter.
> >
>
> ________________
>
> I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster.
>
> Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
Got any facts to back that statement up ?
> It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
Polls also got it wrong in 1948 and 1992 too pre mass mobile phones, sometimes in close elections pollsters get it wrong
> You what? I said it *could* have overall benefits, but only after a lot of pain, possibly severe pain - if Corbyn rides to power on the back of this chaos. And that's only COULD.
>
> It could also be entirely negative.
>
> I don't understand the rest of your incoherent point, so I shan't address it.
>
> And what if Corbyn doesn't ride to power. What if a "plausible and charismatic" pro-Brexit leader harnesses the feeling of betrayal to make it directly to Number 10? <
++++
An interesting question. It obviously depends who that leader is, and what he or she can get through parliament (i.e. will there be an election?)
If there is no election then any Brexiteer Tory - Boris, Raab - will face the same obstacles as T May. Who knows what BoJo would do then. 2nd vote? Any Tory leadership candidate will have to announce their plans for implementing Brexit. It will be fascinating.
If there is an election, and Farage wins (is that your implication?) then all bets are off. I'm not at all sure what the BXP believes on anything other than Brexit. They have candidates from all over the spectrum.
> The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
Remainerville Australia, they lost them to Independents not Labor though
> I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
>
> It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
>
> Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
>
> Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. <
++++
That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
> It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
The result was close and much of that was down to a catalogue of errors by Remain (though Leave was also less than fantastic).
> > I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster.
> >
> > Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
>
> It was more than just employment they got wrong. They forecast house price falls, wages to fall and public sector borrowing to increase, all wrong.
>
> They got GDP growth would slow correct, sterling to fall and inflation to rise correct.
>
> The central assumption they got wrong was that consumer confidence would fall by so much, because of worry about the future and need to batten down the hatches that the consumer would stop spending. I though this illogical at the time because at least 50% of the population would be happy and a decent percentage of the other half would not really care.
_________________
Bear in mind these figures are relative to the base case, ie. what difference does Brexit make? The accuracy also depends on how well we understand the counterfactuals.
that stability can be done well by another route
that the democratic deficit is dangerous
that they could not see their MEPs actually doing things and making a difference
that if the EU was serious about our interests they would have negotiated seriously with David Cameron
that the proper unit for deciding who can live in its borders is the nation state and not another body
that our politicians were delegating too much to others and becoming weak and feeble
that NATO matters more than the EU for stability
that it is time to move on from the post war settlements and their consequences.
Who can possibly know. What I am sure of is that most remainers and most brexiteers are thoughtful political moderates, not being served well at the moment by Parliament, and that this is dangerous.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
>
> I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
Voting in Australia is compulsory.
Unfortunately for Remain, they thought that meant they could just use him to put people off voting to leave the EU, rather than making a coherent case.
> Is anyone still claiming that Brexit offers any benefits at all? If so what?
It shifts power to this country and forces us to take greater responsibility for our actions.
Alternatively you can believe that this country can live £100bn beyond its means forever without any long term detriment.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
>
>
>
> Two ex-leaders' seats, includign Wentworth which was Turnbull's old seat vacated seven months ago (and not yet called; margin sits at 0.4%)
>
> Seems the Liberals lost the liberal elites but won the nation?
A lesson for the Tories maybe
http://www.bluelabour.org/2019/05/18/nigel-farage-and-our-democratic-nation/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48305001
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
> >
> > I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
>
> Voting in Australia is compulsory.
Fair point.
But how compulsory is 'compulsory' and how do you stop people spoiling their ballot ?
Coalition 41.5% Labor 33% on primary vote.
Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth
> Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
>
> Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
> Final Australian figures
>
> Coalition 41.5% Labor 33% on primary vote.
>
> Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
>
> Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth
Not really final figures. They've only counted 70% and that's only a provisional count. The official and final count will happen later. It's interesting how we're the only country in the world to count all the votes first and then announce the final result.
Anyone else declared for Tory leadership while I have been away?
"How about the WA?"
"That's too high a cost"
> LOL, Penny Wong blaming the electorate for not being sophisticated enough.
She's not wong...
> Good news for the Liberals in Australia. Turns out people weren't swayed by that climate emergency guff.
Looks like they’ve pulled off a 2015 Tories style win. Might squeak a majority (just!). Though we all know what happened after that...
>
> Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
>
52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for...
> This is timely and apposite (and interesting) on the failure of Remain leadership, and the failures of Labour and Tories - re Farage and Brexit.
>
>
>
> http://www.bluelabour.org/2019/05/18/nigel-farage-and-our-democratic-nation/
Thanks for posting that. A very good piece (because I agree with it, of course
> "Brexit at any cost!"
>
> "How about the WA?"
>
> "That's too high a cost"
LOL
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > LOL, Penny Wong blaming the electorate for not being sophisticated enough.
>
> She's not wong...
Like Brexit, I'm sure they'll claim that voters didn't know what they were voting for. No, they knew exactly what they were voting for, and it wasn't for you.
UK, Survation poll:
LAB-S&D: 32% (-7)
CON-ECR: 27% (-8)
LDEM-ALDE: 13% (+3)
BREX-EFDD: 13% (+13)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 5% (+2)
GP-G/EFA: 3% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 2% (-3)
ChUK-*/EPP: 2% (+2)
+/- vs. 15 March 2019
Field work: 17 May 2019
Sample size: 1,000"
> Been away from the computer for a couple of hours.
>
> Anyone else declared for Tory leadership while I have been away?
Scott Morrison? Can he lead 2 conservative parties?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
> >
> > It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
> >
> > Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
> >
> > Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. <
>
> ++++
>
> That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave.
It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery.
At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself.
> Only just realised that Australia uses the American spelling "labor". Is this true more widely (i.e. with other "-our" words)?
No, it's unusual. Neighbours is spelt the British way for instance.
> > @OldKingCole said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
> > >
> > > I think differential turnout is important and it will be more difficult to adjust polls for people who don't vote at every election.
> >
> > Voting in Australia is compulsory.
>
> Fair point.
>
> But how compulsory is 'compulsory' and how do you stop people spoiling their ballot ?
AIUI, you can't. But as someone else has pointed out, not all the votes have been counted yet, so we haven't had a tally of the void votes.
> Good news for the Liberals in Australia. Turns out people weren't swayed by that climate emergency guff.
Not really true, Morrison has said 'climate change is a “very real and serious issue” that demands attention' and 'He said the government was acting on climate change through initiatives such as the emissions reduction fund and the renewable energy target.'
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/26/scott-morrison-tells-students-striking-over-climate-change-to-be-less-activist
However he also wants to protect the economy and opposed the extent of Shorten's carbon emission cuts
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > LOL, Penny Wong blaming the electorate for not being sophisticated enough.
>
> She's not wong...
Its honest of you to admit to being insufficiently sophisticated.
> https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
>
>
>
> One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate.
>
> For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing.
I thought Leave voters were bloated capitalists, who were all twirling their moustaches at the prospect of making the workers stew grass.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
> > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
> >
>
> 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for...
>
>
So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
> > @isam said:
> > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
> >
> > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
>
> I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > >
> > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
> > >
> >
> > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for...
> >
> >
>
> So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
85% voted for parties that supported Brexit.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Final Australian figures
> >
> > Coalition 41.5% Labor 33% on primary vote.
> >
> > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
> >
> > Coalition 74 Labor 65 Greens 1 Others 5 current seat total. Coalition just 2 short of a majority with 6 to declare, Coalition ahead in 2, Labor ahead in 3, Independents ahead in Wentworth
>
> Not really final figures. They've only counted 70% and that's only a provisional count. The official and final count will happen later. It's interesting how we're the only country in the world to count all the votes first and then announce the final result.
It won't change too much with only 5 seats left outstanding and Labor only ahead in 2 of them. Yes we are also one of the last countries that still votes with pencil and paper
> > @Byronic said:
> > This is timely and apposite (and interesting) on the failure of Remain leadership, and the failures of Labour and Tories - re Farage and Brexit.
> >
> >
> >
> > http://www.bluelabour.org/2019/05/18/nigel-farage-and-our-democratic-nation/
>
> Thanks for posting that. A very good piece (because I agree with it, of course
And a Johnson-led Tory Party will go for the Faragist vote, irrespective of either the truth or the damage to the country.
Look at poor Mrs Ratcliffe.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > I'm not saying it's easy to win people over. But it is what politicians are meant to do. I'm therefore surprised that the Remain camp, which does have lots of political brain power and media influence, and which can get 6m people to sign a petition - has not produced one true figurehead with the charisma to harness this, and change the narrative.
> > >
> > > It's one of the reasons we are in this omnishambles. Remain politicians are a bit wet and useless.
> > >
> > > Femi is the only Remain figure who does a good and passionate job, without lurching into hysteria. But he is quite obscure.
> > >
> > > Your point would be more reasonable if you restricted it to criticism of pre-referendum mainstream Remainers. After 2016 it's not at all obvious how even a once in a century politician could meet the bar you set. A political omnishambles was always inevitable. <
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > That's a fair point. Remain needs a genius now, whereas they merely needed someone much better than Cameron, Osborne and Clegg at the referendum.
>
> What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave.
>
> It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery.
>
> At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself.
Yet the recession Remainers predicted has never occurred and there are strawberries in the shops.
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
> > >
> > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
> >
> > I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
>
> I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him.
Farage is the folk-devil that the pro-EU left require to motivate their supporters.
> > @Byronic said:
>
> What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave.
>
> It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery.
>
> At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself. <
++++
You're missing my point. I agree with much of what you say. It is indeed very arguable that the intellectual case for Leave has collapsed, and every claim made by Leavers has been falsified...
... in which case why isn't there one plausible convincing politician on the Remain side, who is able to argue this, and dramatically shift opinions? Someone who can capitalise on Leave's failures, without being snooty or histrionic, or hectoring or cringeworthy?
Because I am afraid I cannot see one.
Seems Queensland went big for the coalition as they did preference deals with One Nation and United Australia. Keep your right onside as they say.
> > @Torby_Fennel said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > Is 'I don't like Farage but' (or similar) going to be the PB phrase of 2019?
> > > >
> > > > Followed by something along the lines of “I always said he was a formidable operator... “ while hoping no one checks comments from 2012-2016 when he was supposedly a massive drag on the UKIP/leave campaigns
> > >
> > > I didn’t like Farage but, even then underestimated the damage he did to the United Kingdom.
> >
> > I don't like Farage but at least, as the personification of everything we're fighting against, he's a useful motivator to those of us on the opposite side to him.
>
> Farage is the folk-devil that the pro-EU left require to motivate their supporters.
Farage certainly fires me up to get out delivering our Lib Dem leaflets. We don't require him to motivate our supporters but he certainly helps.
Failing to honour it has put Farage back in the game and it won't be long before Sturgeon is either.
There can be no justification for reneging on the 2016 vote and then telling the Scots they can't do the same over Sindy.
> As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
>
>
>
A perceptive point - but they couldn't do because they deny why people voted Leave in the first place. They have spent three years telling Leavers why they voted Leave and not one day asking them WHY they voted leave.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @Byronic said:
>
> >
> > What a bizarre post. Leave has completely failed to build a consensus for its programme despite having won the referendum. What we are watching are the intensification of the death cult as every claim made by Leave advocates has been falsified and steadily more extreme claims are made for faith to prove worthiness in the absence of any positive case for Leave.
> >
> > It’s terrible for the country and will cause lasting damage but right now the intellectual case for Leave lies in tatters. All it has left is demagoguery.
> >
> > At some point a Remainer will pick up the pieces because the fire will eventually consume itself. <
>
> ++++
>
> You're missing my point. I agree with much of what you say. It is indeed very arguable that the intellectual case for Leave has collapsed, and every claim made by Leavers has been falsified...
>
> ... in which case why isn't there one plausible convincing politician on the Remain side, who is able to argue this, and dramatically shift opinions? Someone who can capitalise on Leave's failures, without being snooty or histrionic, or hectoring or cringeworthy?
>
> Because I am afraid I cannot see one.
>
>
It simply isn’t time yet. At the moment almost all politicians are still formally committed to trying to find a Brexit that might work. They’re not yet making that case.
The public are ahead of the politicians in that respect.
> > @Byronic said:
> > As an aside, it is remarkable that - three years after we voted, and with Brexit in total chaos - Remain still haven't produced or uncovered one single truly charismatic and plausible politician, able to persuade Leavers to backtrack en masse.
> >
> >
> >
>
> A perceptive point - but they couldn't do because they deny why people voted Leave in the first place. They have spent three years telling Leavers why they voted Leave and not one day asking them WHY they voted leave.
Leavers are racists scumbags stuck in the past. Is there anything more to know?
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
> > > >
> > >
> > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for...
> > >
> > >
> >
> > So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
>
> 85% voted for parties that supported Brexit.
82% voted for parties supporting a Brexit deal
1.8% voted for parties supporting no deal
So as soon as leavers can agree a deal we can move on.
> > @matt said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > One has to applaud her honesty. Let's just strip away the flummery that Brexit presents any social or economic benefits and have an honest debate.
>
> >
>
> > For a significant proportion of the “fuck business” pro-Farage Brexit electorate it won’t matter. Their pensions and state payments will not be affected by Brexit. Perhaps some people will suffer but it won’t be them and sometimes you have to break some eggs. They’re perfectly entitled to vote like that but some self-awareness might be a good thing.
>
>
>
> I thought Leave voters were bloated capitalists, who were all twirling their moustaches at the prospect of making the workers stew grass.
>
> Yes, a significant element of the Leave intelligentsia believe that the masses have had it too easy in recent centuries and the return to a more feudal arrangement is desirable. The EU was seen as a significant obstacle in the implementation of this project. However, I wouldn't say this represents anywhere near the majority of Leave voters, not least because such an agenda needed to be kept secret from them.
Yet it was the Remain side which described higher wages as not a good thing.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Coalition 51.8% Labor 48.2% on preferences.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > 52/48 -this needs a "confirmatory" election now just in case Aussies didn't actually know what they were voting for...
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > So you presumably respect the work of the UK parliament democratically elected in 2017 as the country knew exactly what we wanted.....surely anyone criticising May et al should be seen as acting against the will of the people?
> >
> > 85% voted for parties that supported Brexit.
>
> 82% voted for parties supporting a Brexit deal
> 1.8% voted for parties supporting no deal
>
> So as soon as leavers can agree a deal we can move on.
A shame a party that supports the deal has refused to vote for it three times in a row.
> It's clear now that the whole art/science of polling has become much more difficult since people moved from landlines to mobile phones. One of the pundits on the Australian election show was making this point.
Australia SHOULD be a lot easier to model. Because of compulsory voting there should not be any weighting issues which result from differential turnout.