> > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
In a wealthy suburb trending left like most wealthy suburbs all over the west.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > > > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly. > > In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west.
Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world.
"Only" 12% - I think a month ago the party would have taken that gladly. The LD number has stabilised but in the range of 11-15% - some of the polls in the past week look to be huge outliers.
The post- local elections boost has understandably faded with time - the LDs and CON will be very close for third place with TBP well ahead and Labour in a clear second place.
The Remain vote is splitting between Labour and the LDs, the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and the Tories but those are the main blocks on Thursday whichever of those parties comes out top
If that poll is anywhere near accurate I actually doubt if a referendum would be won for Remain. It confirms how polarised the UK is. At this point the politicians to listen to are those with a serious and credible way of bridging the divide. It strikes me that neither Corbyn, Johnson, Cable are anywhere near.
> @stodge said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly. > >
Abbott perhaps was too extreme on gay marriage and climate change, even Morrison said he backed gay marriage now
Australian betting company Sportsbet paid out on a Labor victory a few days ago.
I'm sure they'll be fine :-) Paddypower - who own Sportsbet - have been doing that for ages here. Sometimes it goes wrong, but they clearly think it's worth it in free publicity
> @HYUFD said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > > > > > > > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly. > > > > In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west. > > Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world.
The problem is the media tend to overestimate how many wealthy liberal AB professionals there are and tend to underestimate how many working-class C2 voters there still are. Obviously the latter are declining in favour of the former but there are still a lot of the latter around. But the media tend to forget about them.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> @felix said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20 > > If that poll is anywhere near accurate I actually doubt if a referendum would be won for Remain. It confirms how polarised the UK is. At this point the politicians to listen to are those with a serious and credible way of bridging the divide. It strikes me that neither Corbyn, Johnson, Cable are anywhere near.
Never mind another referendum, just think about the implications of that poll on a FPTP election - big advantage for a more Brexity party I reckon at 50-50 country split.
> @felix said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > And your point is?
Since the last Australian election there have been hundreds of opinion polls, with just two of them putting the government ahead. I don't think I've seen a party win in those circumstances before.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> @AndyJS said: > Since the last Australian election there have been hundreds of opinion polls, with just two of them putting the government ahead. I don't think I've seen a party win in those circumstances before.
The difference is Australia's AV system, the government and Coalition tended to lead on first preferences, it was only on 2PP Labor was ahead.
However the One Nation and Palmer United vote seems to have been underestimated, especially in Queensland and their preferences went to the Coalition
51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
> @GIN1138 said: > Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally! > > So far that's: > > Labour > (NO) Chnage UK > The Brexit Party > > Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
I have received leaflets from Lab,Green,Change and EDL.
The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win > > > > > > > > > > > > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly. > > > > > > In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west. > > > > Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world. > > The problem is the media tend to overestimate how many wealthy liberal AB professionals there are and tend to underestimate how many working-class C2 voters there still are. Obviously the latter are declining in favour of the former but there are still a lot of the latter around. But the media tend to forget about them.
Yes and C2s live disproportionally in marginal seats
> @HYUFD said: > > @ydoethur said: > > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia > > > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them? > > A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
Or simply an alternate interpretation of the margin of error ...
> The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
Walked past half a dozen or so people out campaigning for the Tories in Newark today. I stopped and observed for about 15 minutes. They seemed to be getting a lot of apologetic responses along the lines of "I nornally vote Tory but for these elections it is Brexit party."
The fact that the responses were apologetic and polite rather than aggresive does make me think these are only votes being leant for this election rather than being permanently lost by the Tories.
> @Floater said: > > @felix said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > > > And your point is? > > you honestly can't be that stupid?
Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
> > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
> >
> > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
>
> A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
I don't think it's about putting the Coalition second, rather, it would be about not putting Labor second, which may have been what made the difference.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia > > > > > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them? > > > > A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation > > But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
The same reason the Tories won seats in areas like Mansfield and Nuneaton and Walsall and Middlesborough at the last general election and such voters will likely vote Brexit Party on Thursday, they feel Labour no longer represents the working class but is a party of urban graduate liberal lefties and public sector workers
The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
All polls have a "Have you ever been decapitated?" "Yes" rate of around 3-4% - so much so that its absence throws the legitimacy of the whole poll into doubt.
> @FF43 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20 > > 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance?
> @Floater said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > Yes them. > > I suspect I know a lot more about it than you do. > >
> @ydoethur said: > > @ydoethur said: > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful. > > > > What is this 'supply of money' that you refer to? > > Their salary and perks from the EU of course. > > Did you think I was referring to something else?
I'm not clear where Farage is campaigning to retain his perks. He seems to be figthting against that.
Lol, a lefty place I know are saying that the ALP need to get an "explainer" in charge who is going to ramp up the batshit policy positions and shout them louder.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > Walked past half a dozen or so people out campaigning for the Tories in Newark today. I stopped and observed for about 15 minutes. They seemed to be getting a lot of apologetic responses along the lines of "I nornally vote Tory but for these elections it is Brexit party." > > The fact that the responses were apologetic and polite rather than aggresive does make me think these are only votes being leant for this election rather than being permanently lost by the Tories.
Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me)
Turns out we may end up with no swing at all in Oz. Both main Parties down 0.9% on first preferences at the moment. Concealing some wide local and State wide variations though.
> @Nemtynakht said: > I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
How many of those 6 million are actually eligible to vote?
Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
_____________
I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit.
Walked past half a dozen or so people out campaigning for the Tories in Newark today. I stopped and observed for about 15 minutes. They seemed to be getting a lot of apologetic responses along the lines of "I nornally vote Tory but for these elections it is Brexit party."
The fact that the responses were apologetic and polite rather than aggresive does make me think these are only votes being leant for this election rather than being permanently lost by the Tories.
Six Tory campaigners in one place is well in excess of any election activity I've seen around here. (Rural south east.) I've seen one extremely mature Lib Dem campaigner delivering leaflets, rather slowly. I was concerned for her health and thought about helping her to make sure she got home alive. And that is about it.
> @ydoethur said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @ydoethur said: > > > > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia > > > > > > > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them? > > > > > > A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation > > > > But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there. > > I don't think it's about putting the Coalition second, rather, it would be about not putting Labor second, which may have been what made the difference.
But surely such voters would still be likely to preference Labour higher than the Coalition - whether second, third or fourth etc?
> @ydoethur said: > I'm not clear where Farage is campaigning to retain his perks. He seems to be figthting against that. > > The ERG say they want to leave the EU. They just keep voting to remain. > > Corbyn says he wants to help poor people. He just wants to steal their houses and money, ramp up their taxes and destroy their services. > > Trump says he wants to Make America Great Again. His bungling has made it a laughing stock. > > Greenpeace say they want to save the world - by causing massive amounts of pollution. > > What people say isn't the same thing as what they do.
With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
> @felix said: > > @Floater said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > > > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > > > > > And your point is? > > > > you honestly can't be that stupid? > > Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in?
There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies?
It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy.
> @felix said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20 > > > > 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know . > > Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance?
__________
You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
But surely such voters would still be likely to preference Labour higher than the Coalition - whether second, third or fourth etc?
Wouldn't matter if the top half of their list was for other low ranked parties. Or if they only put down the first two or three preferences and Labor wasn't one.
> @FF43 said: > > @Floater said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > _____________ > > I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit.
The rest of the EU is not going to be content with UK-based firms operating out of local subsidiaries, even if that gets round the immediate issues caused by Brexit. They are intent on bringing across as much of our financial services sector (and related ones) as they can and will do everything they can - rules changes etc - to ensure this. For instance, the French are already setting up an English language common law court with a view to capturing some of the legal market.
There will not be a Big Bang with firms relocating en masse and tumbleweed blowing across Canary Wharf or near St Pauls. But there will be a bit by bit transfer of business over time. And not just because of Brexit.
Labour has absolutely no interest in the services sector, certainly not the City and its related sectors. Note how in their recent announcements they only ever talk about manufacturing not services. So there will be no help from them and, more likely, measures which will help accelerate the transfer of business to a larger and friendlier market.
And don't think the US will help. The last thing the US will do is open up its finance sector to British firms.
The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
> @MaxPB said: > Lol, a lefty place I know are saying that the ALP need to get an "explainer" in charge who is going to ramp up the batshit policy positions and shout them louder.
If Shorten is Ed Miliband then is Albanese Corbyn?
Tanya Pilbersek looks their best bet, more centrist and telegenic
> @SandyRentool said: > No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards. > > I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is. > > 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan.
So, late swing or Australian polling screw-up? And does this result impact Australia's chances in Eurovision?
Can't help wondering if the two party forced choice question has had its day. If Labor were the preferred choice of two, but then not added to the list on the actual ballot, it isn't a helpful question.
> @ydoethur said: > But surely such voters would still be likely to preference Labour higher than the Coalition - whether second, third or fourth etc? > > Wouldn't matter if the top half of their list was for other low ranked parties. Or if they only put down the first two or three preferences and Labor wasn't one.
Under the Australian AV system the entire Ballot Paper has to be completed - failure to do so results in it being treated as 'spoilt'. As for having preferenced minor parties, they would likely all be eliminated leaving just Labour and Coalition. At that point, I would have expected those votes to flow back to Labour.
> I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
How many of those 6 million are actually eligible to vote?
Dunno. Let's get the pencils out and discover the answer.
> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > > > > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > > > > > > > And your point is? > > > > > > you honestly can't be that stupid? > > > > Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first. > > Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in? > > There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies? > > It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy.
Ironically despite your bad manners it seems we are in agreement about the original comment. Maybe irony is not your strong point.
> @felix said: > > @Nigelb said: > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
> @FF43 said: > > @felix said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20 > > > > > > 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know . > > > > Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance? > > __________ > > You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
Spectacularly missing the point even when given a prompt to think about it. Hilarious.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > _____________ > > > > I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit. > > The rest of the EU is not going to be content with UK-based firms operating out of local subsidiaries, even if that gets round the immediate issues caused by Brexit. They are intent on bringing across as much of our financial services sector (and related ones) as they can and will do everything they can - rules changes etc - to ensure this. For instance, the French are already setting up an English language common law court with a view to capturing some of the legal market. > > There will not be a Big Bang with firms relocating en masse and tumbleweed blowing across Canary Wharf or near St Pauls. But there will be a bit by bit transfer of business over time. And not just because of Brexit. > > Labour has absolutely no interest in the services sector, certainly not the City and its related sectors. Note how in their recent announcements they only ever talk about manufacturing not services. So there will be no help from them and, more likely, measures which will help accelerate the transfer of business to a larger and friendlier market. > > And don't think the US will help. The last thing the US will do is open up its finance sector to British firms. > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
____________
That's already happening. I know in my place of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.
> @ydoethur said: > With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in. > > By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.<
++++
Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%?
Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May?
Leaflet count is up to 3 now: - 1 Labour, claiming the European elections aren't about Europe - 1 Green, claiming to be the East of England's strongest Remain party. They even included a LD-style not-to-scale bar chart - 1 English Democrats, ranting about immigration and English jobs for English people
Nothing from Brexit, Tories, LDs or CUKs yet. Non-political obsessives I know don't seem to be particularly interested in these elections (may possibly be linked to no local elections in the area), so I'm sceptical about the high turnout being predicted by some polls, but I'd love to be wrong.
> @ydoethur said: > With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in. > > By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.
You'll perhaps concede that its not your best argument?
Farage did shut up for a good while. I don't really like Farage, but he's actually acted pretty straightforwardly in all of this.
> > You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
----
The polls have a history of not being very accurate for referendums.
The spread in the polls is comparable to the historical error.
So, I would treat all the polls with some considerable caution.
I wouldn't be too sure who would win.
But, it is reasonable to argue what is the point of inflicting another divisive referendum on us all to discover the country is split 50:50 again, or 52:48, or whatever.
> @HYUFD said: > > Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me) -------------
How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises?
People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
Under the Australian AV system the entire Ballot Paper has to be completed - failure to do so results in it being treated as 'spoilt'. As for having preferenced minor parties, they would likely all be eliminated leaving just Labour and Coalition. At that point, I would have expected those votes to flow back to Labour.
Well, clearly they were so sick of Labour they didn't.
> > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too. > > ____________ > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.<
++++
It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business.
That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed.
I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter.
Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%? Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May? Just checkin'
It is the same Nigel Farage who can persuade what's likely to be about a quarter of those who voted to leave the EU to back him in what amounts to a free hit when the decision to leave is under threat...
And the same Nigel Farage who has never won a democratic vote.
> With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
>
> By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.
You'll perhaps concede that its not your best argument?
Farage did shut up for a good while. I don't really like Farage, but he's actually acted pretty straightforwardly in all of this.
“We voted to leave, but we haven’t left” is impossible to wriggle out of, so they have to imply bad intentions, question his funding or quote things he said/people he met a long time ago to distract.
> @numbertwelve said: > > @felix said: > > > @Nigelb said: > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > > > You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments? > > ---- > > The polls have a history of not being very accurate for referendums. > > The spread in the polls is comparable to the historical error. > > So, I would treat all the polls with some considerable caution. > > I wouldn't be too sure who would win. > > But, it is reasonable to argue what is the point of inflicting another divisive referendum on us all to discover the country is split 50:50 again, or 52:48, or whatever.
________
I agree with this. The polls should be better now because they have a reference point with how people voted last time. The real issue, it seems to me, is that a second referendum is hypothetical and we don't know the context in which it might take place. Remain could see its hypothetical eight point advantage knocked out, or it could be even bigger.
> A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
>
> A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
Of course not. But it is transparently obvious that the elderly, looked at as a group, are totally at odds with their children and particularly their voting age grandchildren on their views on the future.
You side of the argument have failed utterly to address that other than to say we know better.
> @ydoethur said: > Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%? > Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May? > Just checkin' > > It is the same Nigel Farage who can persuade what's likely to be about a quarter of those who voted to leave the EU to back him in what amounts to a free hit when the decision to leave is under threat... > > And the same Nigel Farage who has never won a democratic vote.<
+++++
Possibly true (tho recall he "won" the euros in 2014), but that doesn't prove your insane position that he is "utterly toxic". It's his personal charisma that took the BXP from 0 % to 35% in five weeks. The party is all about him, it leads with his face on every leaflet, he's the one they cheer to the rafters at their very successful rallies.
If you want to see "utterly toxic" politicians look at May or Corbyn. If you want to see utterly useless politicians look at Change UK.
I do not like Mister Farage. But it is clear that there are plenty of people that do. Denying this is futile.
> @Marco1 said: > People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me) > ------------- > > How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises? >
The average voter just wants to Leave the EU, once Boris or Raab take over either the Commons will have passed the WA and they can promise to try and renegotiate the backstop and go for a Canada style FTA or if the WA failed again just go to No Deal without further extension.
May will have made the compromises so they don't have to
> With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
>
> By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.
You'll perhaps concede that its not your best argument?
Farage did shut up for a good while. I don't really like Farage, but he's actually acted pretty straightforwardly in all of this.
“We voted to leave, but we haven’t left” is impossible to wriggle out of, so they have to imply bad intentions, question his funding or quote things he said/people he met a long time ago to distract.
Cameron and Osborne faced those same questions over Deripaska.
And so they should, because they shouldn't do it.
While I'll call Corbyn out as a pound shop Mussolini, I've never heard accusations that as Labour leader he's been taking dodgy money.
If Farage doesn't want to be questioned about his funding sources, he shouldn't have questionable sources of funding - and that includes the EU Parliament, so I stand by my original comment.
> Clean Break or May’s deal, which is it? Remember you have to choose one. You can’t have both. Once you decide, how are you going to convince other Leavers to vote for it?
>
> Call a referendum. Deal or No Deal. I could live with either.
I thought your lot were against second votes. Obviously you’ve excluded one viable option. I suspect you’ll argue some contrived case citing by denying voters the option you improve democracy, but the real reason is that you think it might win.
If you do do that you’ll have to define what Deal or no Deal actually means beyond day one. On that there is no agreement whatsoever.
I love the concept applied to General Elections. We vote for or against the current Government Remaining in power. If Remaining loses, then we vote on the destination Government (which other party). And the incumbent (rejected) Party may not stand in that vote.
Brexit always has been a right wing capitalism on steroids project masquerading as some poor against the elite guff .
The fact so many with little voted for a bunch of politicians who will happily throw them under a bus is disappointing but speaks of the times we live in.
When they get poorer Farage and the rest will just try and find another section of society to blame .
The Farage populism doesn’t have solutions but just scapegoat politics. The populists will just keep moving the goalposts and the whole saga will just feed itself .
> @felix said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Floater said: > > > > > @felix said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators." > > > > > >
> > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January. > > > > > > > > > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it? > > > > > > > > > > And your point is? > > > > > > > > you honestly can't be that stupid? > > > > > > Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first. > > > > Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in? > > > > There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies? > > > > It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy. > > Ironically despite your bad manners it seems we are in agreement about the original comment. Maybe irony is not your strong point.
-------
I believe you have me confused with somebody else, who made the previous 'stupidity' comment which you seem to have taken offence to . This >>> system of presenting quotes is hard going.
Possibly true (tho recall he "won" the euros in 2014), but that doesn't prove your insane position that he is "utterly toxic". It's his personal charisma that took the BXP from 0 % to 35% in five weeks. The party is all about him, it leads with his face on every leaflet, he's the one they cheer to the rafters at their very successful rallies. If you want to see "utterly toxic" politicians look at May or Corbyn. If you want to see utterly useless politicians look at Change UK. I do not like Mister Farage. But it is clear that there are plenty of people that do. Denying this is futile.
There are plenty of people who like Juncker or Corbyn, but they are also toxic. They make their goals more difficult to achieve becuase people hate their guts.
If somebody is liked by a third of people and the rest of the country would cheerfully commit suttee before voting for them, that's toxicity. And that's Farage. Why did Boris, not him, front leave? For this reason.
The European elections are not democratic. They use D'Hondt, which is a disgraceful method based on stitch ups. It's been a disaster, especially in my home country, and I do not know how anyone who understands it could support it.
As for your personal defamatory comments - well, I fear they say more about you than anyone else.
> Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%?
> Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May?
> Just checkin'
>
> It is the same Nigel Farage who can persuade what's likely to be about a quarter of those who voted to leave the EU to back him in what amounts to a free hit when the decision to leave is under threat...
>
> And the same Nigel Farage who has never won a democratic vote.<
+++++
Possibly true (tho recall he "won" the euros in 2014), but that doesn't prove your insane position that he is "utterly toxic". It's his personal charisma that took the BXP from 0 % to 35% in five weeks. The party is all about him, it leads with his face on every leaflet, he's the one they cheer to the rafters at their very successful rallies.
If you want to see "utterly toxic" politicians look at May or Corbyn. If you want to see utterly useless politicians look at Change UK.
I do not like Mister Farage. But it is clear that there are plenty of people that do. Denying this is futile.
Of course. But his toxicity is in excess of either May or Corbyn for those that do not agree with him.
I said at the beginning of the thread that I think revoke less likely than the header suggests - but the majority of those in whose hands it rests at the moment (Parliament) indubitably finds him toxic.
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me) > > ------------- > > > > How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises? > > > > The average voter just wants to Leave the EU, once Boris or Raab take over either the Commons will have passed the WA and they can promise to try and renegotiate the backstop and go for a Canada style FTA or if the WA failed again just go to No Deal without further extension. > > May will have made the compromises so they don't have to
When will the ERG wing learn to count or how parliament works. They will not be able to leave with no deal without further extension as parliament will take over and block it.
They can (probably) call a general election to campaign for it, but the Tory party has a <20% chance of majority at the next election. It would be much lower than that at an election pre Brexit. That might still not be enough though as would still be a handful of awkward Tory Mps within their wafer thin majority.
Why can they not see more than one or two moves ahead, it is like teaching a five year to play chess and watching them get frustrated.....
> > There are plenty of people who like Juncker or Corbyn, but they are also toxic. They make their goals more difficult to achieve becuase people hate their guts. > > If somebody is liked by a third of people and the rest of the country would cheerfully commit suttee before voting for them, that's toxicity. And that's Farage. Why did Boris, not him, front leave? For this reason. > > The European elections are not democratic. They use D'Hondt, which is a disgraceful method based on stitch ups. It's been a disaster, especially in my home country, and I do not know how anyone who understands it could support it. > > As for your personal defamatory comments - well, I fear they say more about you than anyone else. <
++++
I made no defamatory remarks, I said your position was insane, not you. And your take IS nuts. An "utterly toxic" politician is, by definition, a politician that virtually everyone detests, incapable of leading a party, and unable to win elections.
Farage is clearly not any of these things. As we will see next Thursday.
However, as you seem to be in a bit of a strop, I suggest we end the debate for the benefit of your blood pressure.
> @Byronic said: > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too. > > > > ____________ > > > > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.< > > > ++++ > > It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business. > > That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed. > > I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term. > > The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter. >
________________
I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster.
Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
> @Mauve said: > Leaflet count is up to 3 now: > - 1 Labour, claiming the European elections aren't about Europe > - 1 Green, claiming to be the East of England's strongest Remain party. They even included a LD-style not-to-scale bar chart > - 1 English Democrats, ranting about immigration and English jobs for English people > > Nothing from Brexit, Tories, LDs or CUKs yet. Non-political obsessives I know don't seem to be particularly interested in these elections (may possibly be linked to no local elections in the area), so I'm sceptical about the high turnout being predicted by some polls, but I'd love to be wrong.
I've had, in order, Labour, Brexit, Green, CUK and UKIP. The LDs are taking their time; I assume the Tories wont bother.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards. > > > > I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is. > > > > 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan. > > "Bollocks to Lancashire".....
I want to amalgamate the Lib Dems with CHUK and the Greens. The Lib Dems can supply the slogan the Greens can do the catering and CHUK can supply the leader.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @numbertwelve said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me. > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @numbertwelve said: > > > @felix said: > > > > @Nigelb said: > > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support. > > > > > > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change. > > > > > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else? > > > > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before. > > > > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being. > > > > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me. > > Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result.
The Liberals in Australia have won the election at the same time as losing two of the wealthiest seats in the country in Sydney, in Wentworth and Warringah.
> @Roger said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards. > > > > > > I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is. > > > > > > 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan. > > > > "Bollocks to Lancashire"..... > > I want to amalgamate the Lib Dems with CHUK and the Greens. The Lib Dems can supply the slogan the Greens can do the catering and CHUK can supply the leader. >
You'll get the Vince as leader, Chukka on the teas, and the Greens on strategy. So basically LDs Mk2
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
>
>
> Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
>
> In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west.
Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world.
> https://twitter.com/newscomauHQ/status/1129713937795076096
>
>
>
> While his detractors were busy mocking, he was busy winning. First America, now Australia... It could happen here too
>
> https://twitter.com/theweeklytv/status/1128624880499355648
Yes, shades of John Major on his soapbox against the odds
> This is the same poll that has the Lib Dems on only 12% for the European elections.
>
> https://www.survation.com/daily-mail-18-05-19-final-tables/
"Only" 12% - I think a month ago the party would have taken that gladly. The LD number has stabilised but in the range of 11-15% - some of the polls in the past week look to be huge outliers.
The post- local elections boost has understandably faded with time - the LDs and CON will be very close for third place with TBP well ahead and Labour in a clear second place.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
>
> This is the same poll that has the Lib Dems on only 12% for the European elections.
>
> https://www.survation.com/daily-mail-18-05-19-final-tables/
The Remain vote is splitting between Labour and the LDs, the Leave vote between the Brexit Party and the Tories but those are the main blocks on Thursday whichever of those parties comes out top
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
If that poll is anywhere near accurate I actually doubt if a referendum would be won for Remain. It confirms how polarised the UK is. At this point the politicians to listen to are those with a serious and credible way of bridging the divide. It strikes me that neither Corbyn, Johnson, Cable are anywhere near.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
>
> Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
>
>
Abbott perhaps was too extreme on gay marriage and climate change, even Morrison said he backed gay marriage now
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/scott-morrison-claims-he-now-backs-same-sex-marriage-but-dodges-question-on-hell
Besides, they probably hedged.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
> >
> >
> >
> > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
> >
> > In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west.
>
> Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world.
The problem is the media tend to overestimate how many wealthy liberal AB professionals there are and tend to underestimate how many working-class C2 voters there still are. Obviously the latter are declining in favour of the former but there are still a lot of the latter around. But the media tend to forget about them.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
>
>
> >
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
>
> > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> >
>
> > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> >
>
> > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
>
>
>
> Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
>
> That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
And your point is?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
>
> If that poll is anywhere near accurate I actually doubt if a referendum would be won for Remain. It confirms how polarised the UK is. At this point the politicians to listen to are those with a serious and credible way of bridging the divide. It strikes me that neither Corbyn, Johnson, Cable are anywhere near.
Never mind another referendum, just think about the implications of that poll on a FPTP election - big advantage for a more Brexity party I reckon at 50-50 country split.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> >
> > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> >
> >
> >
> > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> >
> > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
>
> And your point is?
you honestly can't be that stupid?
Further support for OGH's golden rule, always look who is ahead as preferred PM to win even if the parties are neck and neck
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
>
>
> >
>
> > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
> >
>
>
> > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
>
> >
>
> > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
>
> >
>
> > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
>
>
>
> Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
>
> That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
Yes them.
I suspect I know a lot more about it than you do.
> Since the last Australian election there have been hundreds of opinion polls, with just two of them putting the government ahead. I don't think I've seen a party win in those circumstances before.
The difference is Australia's AV system, the government and Coalition tended to lead on first preferences, it was only on 2PP Labor was ahead.
However the One Nation and Palmer United vote seems to have been underestimated, especially in Queensland and their preferences went to the Coalition
> https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152?s=12&fbclid=IwAR2qYI2_OJfMnmD7rv0GMALH-DFJjbt8Sbz2ZfLXA8PdbIx9jWfKZTq0WjY
Well Remain have the perfect clip to run if there’s another EU ref.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
> Just had my third leaflet - this one from The Brexit Party and addressed to me personally!
>
> So far that's:
>
> Labour
> (NO) Chnage UK
> The Brexit Party
>
> Nothing from Con, Lib or Green. Yet!
I have received leaflets from Lab,Green,Change and EDL.
A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264
>
>
>
> The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
What is this 'supply of money' that you refer to?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > > > As Australia showed today if conservatives spend too much time picking candidates appealing to left liberals they lose, if they actually campaign as conservatives they can win
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Tony Abbott, perhaps the most conservative of all, lost and lost badly.
> > >
> > > In a wealthy suburb leaning left like all wealthy suburbs all over the west.
> >
> > Yes, increasingly skilled working class C2 workers are the most reliable conservative voters and more so even than wealthy liberal AB professionals across the western world.
>
> The problem is the media tend to overestimate how many wealthy liberal AB professionals there are and tend to underestimate how many working-class C2 voters there still are. Obviously the latter are declining in favour of the former but there are still a lot of the latter around. But the media tend to forget about them.
Yes and C2s live disproportionally in marginal seats
> > @ydoethur said:
> > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
> >
> > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
>
> A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
Did you think I was referring to something else?
The fact that the responses were apologetic and polite rather than aggresive does make me think these are only votes being leant for this election rather than being permanently lost by the Tories.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > >
> > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> > >
> > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> >
> > And your point is?
>
> you honestly can't be that stupid?
Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
> > >
> > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
> >
> > A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
>
> But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
The same reason the Tories won seats in areas like Mansfield and Nuneaton and Walsall and Middlesborough at the last general election and such voters will likely vote Brexit Party on Thursday, they feel Labour no longer represents the working class but is a party of urban graduate liberal lefties and public sector workers
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
>
> 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > @thecommissioner said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> >
> > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> >
> >
> >
> > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> >
> > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
>
> Yes them.
>
> I suspect I know a lot more about it than you do.
>
>
Enlighten us then.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The 3% are Nigel Farage and his mates, who are fearful that once we leave the supply of money, oooops, attention will dry up and they'll have to do something useful.
>
>
>
> What is this 'supply of money' that you refer to?
>
> Their salary and perks from the EU of course.
>
> Did you think I was referring to something else?
I'm not clear where Farage is campaigning to retain his perks. He seems to be figthting against that.
> Walked past half a dozen or so people out campaigning for the Tories in Newark today. I stopped and observed for about 15 minutes. They seemed to be getting a lot of apologetic responses along the lines of "I nornally vote Tory but for these elections it is Brexit party."
>
> The fact that the responses were apologetic and polite rather than aggresive does make me think these are only votes being leant for this election rather than being permanently lost by the Tories.
Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me)
> I still cannot believe that LDs or Change have not moved to revoke. 6 million petitioners to aim for - no way of being outflanked. Can point to the number of polls supporting remain, and disunity about what Leave means (apart from Leave obvs). Is there any reason why they wouldn’t move to that position?
How many of those 6 million are actually eligible to vote?
> https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
>
>
>
> A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
>
> A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
_____________
I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit.
I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is.
'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan.
Corbyn says he wants to help poor people. He just wants to steal their houses and money, ramp up their taxes and destroy their services.
Trump says he wants to Make America Great Again. His bungling has made it a laughing stock.
Greenpeace say they want to save the world - by causing massive amounts of pollution.
What people say isn't the same thing as what they do.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @ydoethur said:
>
> > > ABC News Australia has projected a Coalition victory in Australia
>
> > >
>
> > > This is an abysmal result for Australian Labor. How the hell did they not only lose this one, but have what looks like a fairly hefty swing against them?
>
> >
>
> > A secret One Nation vote it seems higher than expected which went Coalition on prefererences, on First Preferences the Coalition were always ahead and currently lead 41% to 34% for Labour, 11% for the Greens, 4% for Independents and 3% for One Nation
>
>
>
> But why would such voters who were previously Labour inclined give their second preferences to the Coalition? I don't quite follow the logic there.
>
> I don't think it's about putting the Coalition second, rather, it would be about not putting Labor second, which may have been what made the difference.
But surely such voters would still be likely to preference Labour higher than the Coalition - whether second, third or fourth etc?
> I'm not clear where Farage is campaigning to retain his perks. He seems to be figthting against that.
>
> The ERG say they want to leave the EU. They just keep voting to remain.
>
> Corbyn says he wants to help poor people. He just wants to steal their houses and money, ramp up their taxes and destroy their services.
>
> Trump says he wants to Make America Great Again. His bungling has made it a laughing stock.
>
> Greenpeace say they want to save the world - by causing massive amounts of pollution.
>
> What people say isn't the same thing as what they do.
With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > >
> > > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> > > >
> > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> > >
> > > And your point is?
> >
> > you honestly can't be that stupid?
>
> Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in?
There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies?
It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
> >
> > 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
>
> Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance?
__________
You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
And does this result impact Australia's chances in Eurovision?
> > @Floater said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
>
> _____________
>
> I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit.
The rest of the EU is not going to be content with UK-based firms operating out of local subsidiaries, even if that gets round the immediate issues caused by Brexit. They are intent on bringing across as much of our financial services sector (and related ones) as they can and will do everything they can - rules changes etc - to ensure this. For instance, the French are already setting up an English language common law court with a view to capturing some of the legal market.
There will not be a Big Bang with firms relocating en masse and tumbleweed blowing across Canary Wharf or near St Pauls. But there will be a bit by bit transfer of business over time. And not just because of Brexit.
Labour has absolutely no interest in the services sector, certainly not the City and its related sectors. Note how in their recent announcements they only ever talk about manufacturing not services. So there will be no help from them and, more likely, measures which will help accelerate the transfer of business to a larger and friendlier market.
And don't think the US will help. The last thing the US will do is open up its finance sector to British firms.
The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
> Lol, a lefty place I know are saying that the ALP need to get an "explainer" in charge who is going to ramp up the batshit policy positions and shout them louder.
If Shorten is Ed Miliband then is Albanese Corbyn?
Tanya Pilbersek looks their best bet, more centrist and telegenic
> No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards.
>
> I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is.
>
> 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan.
"Bollocks to Lancashire".....
> But surely such voters would still be likely to preference Labour higher than the Coalition - whether second, third or fourth etc?
>
> Wouldn't matter if the top half of their list was for other low ranked parties. Or if they only put down the first two or three preferences and Labor wasn't one.
Under the Australian AV system the entire Ballot Paper has to be completed - failure to do so results in it being treated as 'spoilt'. As for having preferenced minor parties, they would likely all be eliminated leaving just Labour and Coalition. At that point, I would have expected those votes to flow back to Labour.
> > @felix said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @felix said:
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> > > > >
> > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> > > >
> > > > And your point is?
> > >
> > > you honestly can't be that stupid?
> >
> > Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
>
> Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in?
>
> There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies?
>
> It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy.
Ironically despite your bad manners it seems we are in agreement about the original comment. Maybe irony is not your strong point.
> > @Nigelb said:
> > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> >
> >
> >
> > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> >
> > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
>
> Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
> > @felix said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1129686420866699264?s=20
> > >
> > > 51% support for Remain is an outlier these days. The normal spread is 8 percentage points. Doesn't mean the gap wouldn't narrow if the question moved from the hypothetical to the actual. It might or might not narrow. We don't know .
> >
> > Ah - 'outlier' the standard response to the polls you don't like. Are you related to Justin 124 [ Scottish Labour surge Justin] by any chance?
>
> __________
>
> You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
Spectacularly missing the point even when given a prompt to think about it. Hilarious.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> >
> > _____________
> >
> > I guess the key is how much of those insurance services are sold cross border from the UK on a national equivalence basis (GATS 1 mode of supply) because they will disappear with a hard Brexit.
>
> The rest of the EU is not going to be content with UK-based firms operating out of local subsidiaries, even if that gets round the immediate issues caused by Brexit. They are intent on bringing across as much of our financial services sector (and related ones) as they can and will do everything they can - rules changes etc - to ensure this. For instance, the French are already setting up an English language common law court with a view to capturing some of the legal market.
>
> There will not be a Big Bang with firms relocating en masse and tumbleweed blowing across Canary Wharf or near St Pauls. But there will be a bit by bit transfer of business over time. And not just because of Brexit.
>
> Labour has absolutely no interest in the services sector, certainly not the City and its related sectors. Note how in their recent announcements they only ever talk about manufacturing not services. So there will be no help from them and, more likely, measures which will help accelerate the transfer of business to a larger and friendlier market.
>
> And don't think the US will help. The last thing the US will do is open up its finance sector to British firms.
>
> The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
____________
That's already happening. I know in my place of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.
> With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
>
> By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.<
++++
Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%?
Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May?
Just checkin'
- 1 Labour, claiming the European elections aren't about Europe
- 1 Green, claiming to be the East of England's strongest Remain party. They even included a LD-style not-to-scale bar chart
- 1 English Democrats, ranting about immigration and English jobs for English people
Nothing from Brexit, Tories, LDs or CUKs yet. Non-political obsessives I know don't seem to be particularly interested in these elections (may possibly be linked to no local elections in the area), so I'm sceptical about the high turnout being predicted by some polls, but I'd love to be wrong.
> With you all the way on that. Not sure where Farage comes in.
>
> By campaigning to leave the EU so publicly, because he's utterly toxic he makes it rather less likely we will. If he was smart he would shut up.
You'll perhaps concede that its not your best argument?
Farage did shut up for a good while. I don't really like Farage, but he's actually acted pretty straightforwardly in all of this.
> You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
----
The polls have a history of not being very accurate for referendums.
The spread in the polls is comparable to the historical error.
So, I would treat all the polls with some considerable caution.
I wouldn't be too sure who would win.
But, it is reasonable to argue what is the point of inflicting another divisive referendum on us all to discover the country is split 50:50 again, or 52:48, or whatever.
>
> Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me)
-------------
How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises?
Perhaps Corbyn should take note.
> >
> > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
>
> ____________
>
> That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.<
++++
It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business.
That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed.
I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter.
And the same Nigel Farage who has never won a democratic vote.
Boothby
Chisholm
Cowan
Lilley
Macquarie
Wentworth
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az&state=all
> > @felix said:
> > > @Nigelb said:
> > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > >
> > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> >
> > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
>
> I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
>
> People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
>
> There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
Aus election results proves that opinion polls find it hard to get good data.
SO, who will overperform for Euros? My money is on Greens and Brexit.
> >
> > You can pop along to the What the UK Thinks site and get every poll on the subject in one handy place but why bother with facts when you can make uninformed and ridiculous comments?
>
> ----
>
> The polls have a history of not being very accurate for referendums.
>
> The spread in the polls is comparable to the historical error.
>
> So, I would treat all the polls with some considerable caution.
>
> I wouldn't be too sure who would win.
>
> But, it is reasonable to argue what is the point of inflicting another divisive referendum on us all to discover the country is split 50:50 again, or 52:48, or whatever.
________
I agree with this. The polls should be better now because they have a reference point with how people voted last time. The real issue, it seems to me, is that a second referendum is hypothetical and we don't know the context in which it might take place. Remain could see its hypothetical eight point advantage knocked out, or it could be even bigger.
But it is transparently obvious that the elderly, looked at as a group, are totally at odds with their children and particularly their voting age grandchildren on their views on the future.
You side of the argument have failed utterly to address that other than to say we know better.
>
> I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
>
-------
How are you defining "our"?
> 6 seats in doubt:
>
> Boothby
> Chisholm
> Cowan
> Lilley
> Macquarie
> Wentworth
>
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az&state=all
Looks like 7 independents. Maybe they are as wily as the DUP....
> Is this the same "utterly toxic" Farage who has just set up a new party, which, in a few weeks, has gone from nowhere to leading against all other parties, reducing Labour to around 15% and the Tories around 10%?
> Is it the same "utterly toxic" Farage who is more popular in polling than Corbyn and May?
> Just checkin'
>
> It is the same Nigel Farage who can persuade what's likely to be about a quarter of those who voted to leave the EU to back him in what amounts to a free hit when the decision to leave is under threat...
>
> And the same Nigel Farage who has never won a democratic vote.<
+++++
Possibly true (tho recall he "won" the euros in 2014), but that doesn't prove your insane position that he is "utterly toxic". It's his personal charisma that took the BXP from 0 % to 35% in five weeks. The party is all about him, it leads with his face on every leaflet, he's the one they cheer to the rafters at their very successful rallies.
If you want to see "utterly toxic" politicians look at May or Corbyn. If you want to see utterly useless politicians look at Change UK.
I do not like Mister Farage. But it is clear that there are plenty of people that do. Denying this is futile.
> People go on about richer or poorer but even if that was true, would you prefer to be a bit richer and live in Venezuela or be a bit poorer ,have democracy and live in the UK ?
That’s a rather stupid question. You have democracy here in the UK, being in the EU does not take it away. I’d rather my children prospered in the UK as part of the EU rather than having to be poorer in the UK with no benefit by having left just to appease an aging demographic determined to wreck things.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me)
> -------------
>
> How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises?
>
The average voter just wants to Leave the EU, once Boris or Raab take over either the Commons will have passed the WA and they can promise to try and renegotiate the backstop and go for a Canada style FTA or if the WA failed again just go to No Deal without further extension.
May will have made the compromises so they don't have to
And so they should, because they shouldn't do it.
While I'll call Corbyn out as a pound shop Mussolini, I've never heard accusations that as Labour leader he's been taking dodgy money.
If Farage doesn't want to be questioned about his funding sources, he shouldn't have questionable sources of funding - and that includes the EU Parliament, so I stand by my original comment.
We vote for or against the current Government Remaining in power. If Remaining loses, then we vote on the destination Government (which other party).
And the incumbent (rejected) Party may not stand in that vote.
Could be fun.
The fact so many with little voted for a bunch of politicians who will happily throw them under a bus is disappointing but speaks of the times we live in.
When they get poorer Farage and the rest will just try and find another section of society to blame .
The Farage populism doesn’t have solutions but just scapegoat politics. The populists will just keep moving the goalposts and the whole saga will just feed itself .
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Floater said:
> > > > > @felix said:
>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mays-deal-has-sacrificed-services-as-price-of-ending-free-movement-5mjtsmj76
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > "Nor can the UK expect to make up any lost EU services trade with other countries. The World Trade Organisation has made little progress in services liberalisation, while free trade deals in services rarely go far because they run into resistance from regulators."
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > But don't worry. We're only talking about 80% of our economy.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > You are suggesting that by leaving we instantly obliterate our entire service economy? Because that's what you're effectively saying, and unless you somehow mean it, the exaggeration is unhelpful.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I am suggesting that tearing up our existing trading model without having any idea of what to put in its place for the part of the economy which actually earns Britain’s living does not fit into any definition of “fine” I am familiar with.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Just for info - Lloyd's of London (and therefore the rest of the London based international markets) have been trading on a "hard Brexit" basis since January.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > That would be the Lloyds of London which has set up a subsidiary in Belgium so that it can continue providing services to the EU, post-Brexit, would it?
> > > > >
> > > > > And your point is?
> > > >
> > > > you honestly can't be that stupid?
> > >
> > > Enlighten me o wise one. But sort out your manners first.
> >
> > Isn't the point that some of these things that people are afraid of happening have already happened and the sky hasn't fallen in?
> >
> > There is also the question of how much of our service economy is actually made up of service exports to the EU, and what proportion of that would still be at risk given that many companies/businesses will have already implemented their contingencies?
> >
> > It's certainly nothing like 80% of the overall UK economy.
>
> Ironically despite your bad manners it seems we are in agreement about the original comment. Maybe irony is not your strong point.
-------
I believe you have me confused with somebody else, who made the previous 'stupidity' comment which you seem to have taken offence to . This >>> system of presenting quotes is hard going.
If somebody is liked by a third of people and the rest of the country would cheerfully commit suttee before voting for them, that's toxicity. And that's Farage. Why did Boris, not him, front leave? For this reason.
The European elections are not democratic. They use D'Hondt, which is a disgraceful method based on stitch ups. It's been a disaster, especially in my home country, and I do not know how anyone who understands it could support it.
As for your personal defamatory comments - well, I fear they say more about you than anyone else.
But his toxicity is in excess of either May or Corbyn for those that do not agree with him.
I said at the beginning of the thread that I think revoke less likely than the header suggests - but the majority of those in whose hands it rests at the moment (Parliament) indubitably finds him toxic.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > Exactly and a Brexit backing leader like Boris or Raab could win them back, indeed even many Tory members I know will vote Brexit Party on Thursday (but not me)
> > -------------
> >
> > How long do you think they'd stay won back once Boris or Raab started making compromises?
> >
>
> The average voter just wants to Leave the EU, once Boris or Raab take over either the Commons will have passed the WA and they can promise to try and renegotiate the backstop and go for a Canada style FTA or if the WA failed again just go to No Deal without further extension.
>
> May will have made the compromises so they don't have to
When will the ERG wing learn to count or how parliament works. They will not be able to leave with no deal without further extension as parliament will take over and block it.
They can (probably) call a general election to campaign for it, but the Tory party has a <20% chance of majority at the next election. It would be much lower than that at an election pre Brexit. That might still not be enough though as would still be a handful of awkward Tory Mps within their wafer thin majority.
Why can they not see more than one or two moves ahead, it is like teaching a five year to play chess and watching them get frustrated.....
>
> There are plenty of people who like Juncker or Corbyn, but they are also toxic. They make their goals more difficult to achieve becuase people hate their guts.
>
> If somebody is liked by a third of people and the rest of the country would cheerfully commit suttee before voting for them, that's toxicity. And that's Farage. Why did Boris, not him, front leave? For this reason.
>
> The European elections are not democratic. They use D'Hondt, which is a disgraceful method based on stitch ups. It's been a disaster, especially in my home country, and I do not know how anyone who understands it could support it.
>
> As for your personal defamatory comments - well, I fear they say more about you than anyone else. <
++++
I made no defamatory remarks, I said your position was insane, not you. And your take IS nuts. An "utterly toxic" politician is, by definition, a politician that virtually everyone detests, incapable of leading a party, and unable to win elections.
Farage is clearly not any of these things. As we will see next Thursday.
However, as you seem to be in a bit of a strop, I suggest we end the debate for the benefit of your blood pressure.
Peace.
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > >
> > > The sector won't disappear but this may, as Mr Meeks has put it, be an inflexion point which will be the start of long-term relative decline. Remember it was the Dutch which initially invented the City (in its embryonic form) and it was politics which resulted in its transfer to Britain. There is no reason why Britain will hold onto its position for ever. What happened to the Dutch can happen to us too.
> >
> > ____________
> >
> > That's already happening. I know in my pla,,ce of work the budgets are moving steadily away from the UK to the EU27 and that's what determines where people get employed. There are several reasons for the move, not all about Brexit. We're seeing the gradual erosion of decent employment prospects for our young people and that saddens me.<
>
>
> ++++
>
> It is sad and regrettable. Brexit is bad for business.
>
> That said, one can be overly pessimistic. The worst case scenarios tend to assume that Britain will not maneuver to take advantage of new freedoms, or avoid the worst of the fall-out. This is why the Treasury predictions post-vote were so awry: they presumed, inter alia, that the Bank of England would do nothing. Of course the Bank of England took emergency measures. Apocalypse postponed.
>
> I voted Remain, but I accept there could be overall benefits to running our own show, in the long term.
>
> The problem is it might be a very long term, and in between there could be a terrible Corbynite winter.
>
________________
I think wanting to be masters of our own ship a reasonable desire. The point is, Brexit doesn't deliver it. Eventually the UK will come to an accommodation with the EU on the EU's terms, because it has to. Assuming this isn't membership, it will be a crappier, less prosperous and less influential arrangement. It won't have any upsides to what we had before but the downsides can be somewhat mitigated. It won't necessarily be a disaster.
Edit. Incidentally the Treasury predictions were there or there about, except for employment.
> Leaflet count is up to 3 now:
> - 1 Labour, claiming the European elections aren't about Europe
> - 1 Green, claiming to be the East of England's strongest Remain party. They even included a LD-style not-to-scale bar chart
> - 1 English Democrats, ranting about immigration and English jobs for English people
>
> Nothing from Brexit, Tories, LDs or CUKs yet. Non-political obsessives I know don't seem to be particularly interested in these elections (may possibly be linked to no local elections in the area), so I'm sceptical about the high turnout being predicted by some polls, but I'd love to be wrong.
I've had, in order, Labour, Brexit, Green, CUK and UKIP. The LDs are taking their time; I assume the Tories wont bother.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards.
> >
> > I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is.
> >
> > 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan.
>
> "Bollocks to Lancashire".....
I want to amalgamate the Lib Dems with CHUK and the Greens. The Lib Dems can supply the slogan the Greens can do the catering and CHUK can supply the leader.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129741168923824130
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129741335362187265
Tiny hints of consolation for both Labour and Tories.
> > @numbertwelve said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > > >
> > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> > >
> > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> >
> > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
> >
> > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
> >
> > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
>
> Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
On this point I do think "Remain" in general are being a bit misleading or misunderstanding. Those at the bottom end are unlikely to be worse off after Brexit, it is the working squeezed middle and lower middle who will be hit most. If you are in the precariat with no economic capital and reliant on the state for support not much will change.
> > @numbertwelve said:
> > > @felix said:
> > > > @Nigelb said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1129454458159665152
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > A thirty year timeframe is unlikely to concern a not insignificant percentage of their support.
> > > >
> > > > A similar consideration applies to addressing climate change.
> > >
> > > Of course all of the elderly have no interest in the future of the planet or the country as none of them ever have children or grandchildren and if they do they don't care about them. Is it just Brexit rage which dulls the senses on here or summat else?
> >
> > I don’t really like the “people didn’t vote to make themselves poorer” line. People vote to make themselves poorer all the time. A left leaning high earner may vote for a party that would increase higher levels of personal taxation, for instance, that would leave them, personally, worse off financially than they were before.
> >
> > People’s motivations for voting the way they do do not always come down to financial self interest. True, this does tend to be a significant factor in voter behaviour but I am wary to extrapolate from that that the verdict of the electorate is always towards a decision that would improve financial well-being.
> >
> > There are lots of legitimate and valid arguments against Brexit. This one always rings hollow to me.
>
> Not quite. People do often vote in ways which take into account matters other than their immediate economic self-interest. But the issue here, surely, is that people were told that they would be continue to be as well off as now and possible even better off. If Brexit makes those - particularly those at the bottom ends who hoped for something better - worse off then there is an appreciable risk that they will feel cheated. Betrayed, even, by those in whom they put their trust.
Surely that is only measurable after the democratic vote has been implemented. I voted remain and would do so again. I also followed the campaign and people were told many things among which was the possibility that the post Brexit period may not be smooth sailing to put it mildly. I would still be very uncomfortable about failing to implement the result.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > No more party leaflets today but we have received our Poll Cards.
> > >
> > > I'm hoping to get something from the Yorkshire Party, just to see how parochial it is.
> > >
> > > 'If it's not from Yorkshire, it's Shite' would be up their with the LibDems election slogan.
> >
> > "Bollocks to Lancashire".....
>
> I want to amalgamate the Lib Dems with CHUK and the Greens. The Lib Dems can supply the slogan the Greens can do the catering and CHUK can supply the leader.
>
You'll get the Vince as leader, Chukka on the teas, and the Greens on strategy. So basically LDs Mk2