> @Streeter said: > > @FF43 said: > > > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway. > > > > > > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway. > > > > > > We are all in denial. > > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit > > What if it’s Leavers who decide to revoke?
It won't be, 184 MPs voted to revoke in the indicative votes, every one of them a Remainer.
160 MPs voted for No Deal, everyone of them a Leaver
Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
> @DoubleD said: > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
> > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway.
>
> >
>
> > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway.
>
> >
>
> > We are all in denial.
>
> As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
>
> What if it’s Leavers who decide to revoke?
It won't be, 184 MPs voted to revoke in the indicative votes, every one of them a Remainer.
160 MPs voted for No Deal, everyone of them a Leaver
And the past is always a guide to the future, naturally.
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Plenty of Leavers produced {mutually contradictory} summaries of how Brexit would work but Westminster {including leavers} has refused to even implement Brexit so discussions on the future relationship can even properly begin {because they don't agree even on the basics, which is exactly the point} > > ^ made my comments inline. I'm happy that we are reasonably aligned in this. > > >
Brexit will work if the powers let it. 3 years after the Ref. economy still strong. EU is a fantasy
> @Foxy said: > > @argyllrs said: > > Not convinced that either Con or Lab do well long term if revoke happens. > > The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal. > > If revoke is implemented then;- > > Cons will not get a majority for years - and don't rely on the propaganda of Brexit being a right wing party. If and it's a big if they can keep Claire Fox and others then it will be more a party of individual rights and will not necessarily support Tories in a coalition. To me it could be more akin to the historic Liberal Party? > > Labour have a different problem. If the Brexit Party can be anywhere near relevant for the northern working classes then Labour could end up becoming much more a chattering class party of navel gazers. This then leaves them competing more directly with Liberal Democrats and Greens and with minimal automatic votes to count on. > > Hoping the issue will go away is a pipe dream. The EU will continue integrating and will not allow us to keep holding them back - for the next twenty years at least, with each new treaty more people will say enough is enough. > > I don't believe that the Brexit Party will quite pull off all that they hope, but unless a pretty hard Brexit is now achieved they will need to be factored in to any hopes of winning a GE. > > Claire Fox is no longer left wing, despite her pro-terrorist Revolutionary Communist Party roots. Interestingly, the Brexit Party includes a number of these other former RCP members, but they do seem to have changed their views according to what Moscow wants: > > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1128429129433526272?s=19 > > Though to be fair, as the BP has published no manifesto or policy other than WTO Brexit, we really do not know if it is a left or right wing party. Currently they are thriving on ambiguity.
" The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal." Maybe, or maybe it's a free protest vote.
> @DoubleD said: > > @DoubleD said: > > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party. > > that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
> @HYUFD said: > > @FF43 said: > > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway. > > > > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway. > > > > We are all in denial. > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit > ___________________
Farage castigates the government for not delivering Brexit and then accuses May of surrender when she tries to do just that.
There is not a majority for May's deal. There is clearly a majority against no deal. There is probably not a majority for revoke.
And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen.
Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit.
For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions.
> @CarlottaVance said: > My main worry about Boris (among many) is he'd "see his place in History" by "standing shoulder to shoulder" with Trump in an Iran war. One of Harold Wilson's oft overlooked strengths was his repeated refusals to LBJ to join in Vietnam....especially if Macron joins in.... ----------
I'd actually feel more confident about Johnson being able to say no to America than Hunt, Raab, Javid or some of the others.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit > > > ------ > > Passing the deal would not only help Farage to win, but it would help him stay in power afterwards because he'd be no longer be on the hook for implementing No Deal. > > "We are all in denial".
Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal.
The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections
> Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is.
Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
Thanks. I think that an extension after October is more likely than no deal. Still think EUs best tactic is:
(1) grant indefinite extension without date or conditions (2) tell us to send them a text message when we've got agreement from parliament on something (3) think about something else (4) go and see a performance of Waiting for Godot for a change.
> @DoubleD said: > > @DoubleD said: > > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party. > > that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
The next PPB for the Tories will be from Warburtons.
Featuring a selection of the muppets. Together with some of Jim Henson's creations.....
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @HYUFD said: > > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit > > If we're going to have Brexit I'd rather it was implemented by a Farage government than a Tory government: At least he's closely enough identified with the whole thing that when the thing fails most of the people who voted for it will be able to see that thing failed. > > If the Tories do it the Faragists will just blame the failure on Remainers and insist that it requires something even more extreme, and either we'll end up with the Faragist government anyhow or the Tories will keep chasing after ever-more-extreme levels of Faragism. >
The problem is the Tories cannot do it themselves as they do not have a majority in the Commons and a handful of them are diehard Remainers like Grieve and Lee, if the WA finally passes it will be thanks to Labour MPs in Leave seats concerned at the rise of the BP.
Otherwise as you say it will require PM Farage and the Brexit Party winning a Commons majority to deliver Brexit
> @HYUFD said: > > Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal. > > > The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections > ----------
After having left with the withdrawal agreement, what will it mean to be a "No Dealer"? It will mean someone who thinks, "We wouldn't be in this mess if we'd just left with No Deal." Support for "No Deal" would in that sense grow, not shrink, and Farage would benefit.
And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen.
Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit.
For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions.
We are of course assuming that the EU will not themselves withdraw the deal at some point. This is actually not a great deal from their point of view. It ties them into a number of awkward obligations that they would rather avoid, especially over Ireland, while forfeiting pretty well all control over events in the UK at the moment our political system is tottering and extremists of limited ability on left and right are in with a real chance of taking power.
If it came to No Deal or Revoke due to EU actions, Revoke would of course happen. But that in itself would damage the EU's already threadbare credibility and probably fuel the rise of a hardline leaver government that could cause utter chaos.
> @logical_song said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @argyllrs said: > > > Not convinced that either Con or Lab do well long term if revoke happens. > > > The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal. > > > If revoke is implemented then;- > > > Cons will not get a majority for years - and don't rely on the propaganda of Brexit being a right wing party. If and it's a big if they can keep Claire Fox and others then it will be more a party of individual rights and will not necessarily support Tories in a coalition. To me it could be more akin to the historic Liberal Party? > > > Labour have a different problem. If the Brexit Party can be anywhere near relevant for the northern working classes then Labour could end up becoming much more a chattering class party of navel gazers. This then leaves them competing more directly with Liberal Democrats and Greens and with minimal automatic votes to count on. > > > Hoping the issue will go away is a pipe dream. The EU will continue integrating and will not allow us to keep holding them back - for the next twenty years at least, with each new treaty more people will say enough is enough. > > > I don't believe that the Brexit Party will quite pull off all that they hope, but unless a pretty hard Brexit is now achieved they will need to be factored in to any hopes of winning a GE. > > > > Claire Fox is no longer left wing, despite her pro-terrorist Revolutionary Communist Party roots. Interestingly, the Brexit Party includes a number of these other former RCP members, but they do seem to have changed their views according to what Moscow wants: > > > > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1128429129433526272?s=19 > > > > Though to be fair, as the BP has published no manifesto or policy other than WTO Brexit, we really do not know if it is a left or right wing party. Currently they are thriving on ambiguity. > > " The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal." > Maybe, or maybe it's a free protest vote.
Ambiguity on Brexit worked well enough for Labour for a while.
Now Labour resembles a Christmas balloon, discovered behind the sofa mid-February.....
> The electorate are fed up with both a failure to deliver and the general lack of gumption on display in our skewed parliament.
The electorate are fed up with the parliament it elected less than 2 years ago?
I mean, yes. Perhaps the blame lies with the electorate this time.
The voters were offered an overwhelming choice of remainers to deliver Brexit, so it's little surprise that parliament lacks the desire and spirit to do it properly.
Clearing out some of the unrepresentative parts of parliament is a pre-requisite of moving things on.
The electorate took the Tories and Labour at their word in 2017 when they said they would deliver on Brexit. They haven't and now their support is collapsing as both their competence and integrity is in doubt.
> @NickPalmer said: > Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
I don't think anyone actually believed that TMay had some kind of workable plan that might go somewhere, did they?
It's certainly *possible* that the rest of the EU (or one of the member states) would say "this is getting ridiculous" and try to force the issue, but I think it's more likely they'd grant another extension, for the exact same reasons that they granted the previous one.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @algarkirk said: > > Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is. > > Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success. > > The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
I don't think the EU would throw the UK out without a deal (and thereby throw Ireland under the bus as well) - they would not want to set such a precedent and anyway having a humbled UK shorn of political influence but still contributing to the budget would be an excellent result from an EU perspective, what's not to like for them?
> Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
Would suit me, with thatlying toerag in power Scotland would be out tout suit, mind you Boris will be same thing.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > The electorate are fed up with both a failure to deliver and the general lack of gumption on display in our skewed parliament. > > > > The electorate are fed up with the parliament it elected less than 2 years ago? > > I mean, yes. Perhaps the blame lies with the electorate this time. > > The voters were offered an overwhelming choice of remainers to deliver Brexit, so it's little surprise that parliament lacks the desire and spirit to do it properly. > > The problems come directly from this: > > > > along with this.... > > “By constituency By Party > > Lab: 148 Leave | 84 Remain > Con: 247 Leave | 80 Remain” > > Clearing out some of the unrepresentative parts of parliament is a pre-requisite of moving things on. > > The electorate took the Tories and Labour at their word in 2017 when they said they would deliver on Brexit. They haven't and now their support is collapsing as both their competence and integrity is in doubt.
The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
> @PClipp said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > Much like the way YES was robbed in 2014 and the whining continues, I will whine till the next one gives us independence. I am certain it will not be all sweetness and light down south regardless of what may is chosen, there will be almost half pissed off either way, same as Scotland and it will need to be done again at some point. > > > > > > Not quite the same though, the equivalent is Yes winning in 2014 52% to 48% for No and Westminster refusing to recognise and implement the Yes to independence vote > > > > > > It was a very close referendum and as I say almost half will not be happy regardless of which way they go. England is F****d for many years. > > > > Referendums are often very divisive unless one side wins comfortably but you still should respect the result of them however close they are > > Not when the Tories "win" by cheating. They overlooked the fact that seeming to win is one thing, and getting acceptance for that result is quite another.
Ahem - LDs fined by the electoral commission over Referendum spending I seem to recall.
Farage, May 2019: "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
Farage, Mahy 2016: "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit > > > > > ------ > > > > Passing the deal would not only help Farage to win, but it would help him stay in power afterwards because he'd be no longer be on the hook for implementing No Deal. > > > > "We are all in denial". > > Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal. > > > The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections > > > > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro
_________________
It doesn't matter what people say in an opinion poll because they think that Brexit is a one off transition where it gets dealt with and we move on. In fact it just opens year after dreary year of negotiations where we concede everything to the EU and wait on the pleasure of third countries. A case can be made for this if we decide EU membership is an absolute no and damage limitation is an acceptable alternative. No-one is making this case and Farage will exploit it to the full.
It keeps coming back to this core point. Brexit is the problem.
> @CD13 said: > Thanks, Mr Herdson, for an interesting analysis. > > I'm bored with Brexit, but it has achieved something positive. It's shown up MPs for what they are. Self-serving liars. > > Manifestos are irrelevant, to be forgotten at will. The voters' verdict is to be ignored by these paragons of virtue who know better. Purely by virtue of being chosen from a selection of two candidates who toe the party line, and have all the faults of MPs (see above). > > I was talking to one Brexit voter who is an avid Corbyn fan and he's decided to vote for Labour? Why? Because he's frightened the Labour party could have a spectacularly bad result in the Euros. > > A revoke? It would solve one problem but reinforce the anti-democratic reputation of whoever did it. > >
Manifestos are a guide to what a party would do in a majority government, not a cast iron guarantee of their actions regardless of events and consequences.
In a hung parliament they can only ever be, at best, an aspiration as no-one has a majority.
This isn't difficult stuff, and until the age of the re-tweet to expose people as "liars and traitors" seemed perfectly acceptable to the British public. As much as we (rightly) complain about our MPs, the electorate has developed some pretty bizarre expectations in the age of social media, and it does the country great harm.
First vote counts coming in from key marginals of Corangamite in Victoria and Braddon in Tasmania in Australia and showing no change, though a swing to Labor in Victoria
> @DoubleD said: > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
I assume that by "the people" you mean some subset of the 52% who voted in the 2016 referendum to leave the EU (whose wishes the government has jettisoned all other business to try to fulfil, only to be thwarted by MPs who also claim to want to deliver on these wishes but refuse to vote for the one means of achieving that). Plenty of other people are far more angry about the absurd focus on delivering an undeliverable promise made by charlatans and liars than about the failure to deliver it. But presumably these people are not "the people".
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320 > > > > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same. > > Farage, May 2019: > "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result." > > Farage, Mahy 2016: > "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said." > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681 > > It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
Do not underestimate the wave of rage, disgust and contempt that he is riding.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @logical_song said: > > > @JosiasJessop said: > > > > @twistedfirestopper3 said: > > > > Revoke and then what? > > > > > > That is precisely the question. It would do nothing to fix the glaring gulf that currently divides out politics, and risks dividing segments of our society. > > > > We were divided 52:48 three years ago, now it's probably the other way round and more than 4%. So after Revoke we would still be divided but the economy would be in better shape than the alternative and we would be slightly less divided than the alternative. What should be done is the government should address the concerns of the areas that we're put in the position of thinking they had nothing to lose by voting Leave. > > I voted remain. I would vote remain in a second referendum (although I'd caveat that by saying it would depend on the individual question and options being sensible). However I think public opinion has not shifted as much as you think, and that a second referendum with sensible options would lead to another leave result - and perhaps by a larger margin. > > Why? > > Because: > *) Much if Brexit is not about fact, but about emotion, and the 'betrayal' narrative will be strong. > *) Remainers have been doing lots of howling, but making f'all effort to actually sell the good the EU does. > *) People will not like being asked the 'same' question twice, even though the original referendum was flawed and parliament has been proven to be incompetent.
I agree with most of that, I think there is probably a majority in the country for revoke vs no deal, but may not be a majority out of those motivated to vote. Risking no deal instead of the TM deal is a big strategic mistake for those who want a close relationship with the EU.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal. > > > > > > The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections > > > ---------- > > After having left with the withdrawal agreement, what will it mean to be a "No Dealer"? It will mean someone who thinks, "We wouldn't be in this mess if we'd just left with No Deal." Support for "No Deal" would in that sense grow, not shrink, and Farage would benefit.
A 'No Dealer' would be someone who wants a hard line on immigration, no compromise with the EU at all and straight to WTO terms etc and the Brexit Party would morph largely into a populist, hard right party rather than just a Party representing all Leave voters as it is able to do the longer we stay in the EU.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @algarkirk said: > > Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is. > > Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success. > > The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
___________________
In the balance I think. The EU doesn't like the current situation and will decide entirely on its own perceived self interest. However, they want the UK bound by their terms and the current uneasy equilibrium gives them that.
A 'No Dealer' would be someone who wants a hard line on immigration, no compromise with the EU at all etc and the Brexit Party would morph largely into a hard right party rather than just a Party representing all Leave voters as it is able to do the longer we stay in the EU
During the negotiations on the future relationship we *will* face the need to make difficult compromises that go against the vision of Brexit that was sold to the public, and given how controversial the withdrawal agreement is, anyone who wants to overturn the 'establishment' will have an open goal. Farage can just say that the reason Brexit is failing is that the political class betrayed the people by signing the deal.
> @thecommissioner said: > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause. > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process. > > Not yet, anyway.
It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
> @rottenborough said > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular. > > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
I don't much like Farage, but I don't think what he said is inconsistent.
Nothing is settled forever, I expect there will be another SIndy, for example.
The pattern is (i) referendum called, (ii) result implemented, and then (iii) if the matter remains unsettled, further referendums.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @rottenborough said > > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular. > > > > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters. > > I don't much like Farage, but I don't think what he said is inconsistent. > > Nothing is settled forever, I expect there will be another SIndy, for example. > > The pattern is (i) referendum called, (ii) result implemented, and then (iii) if the matter remains unsettled, further referendums. >
> @rottenborough said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320 > > > > > > > > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same. > > > > Farage, May 2019: > > "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result." > > > > Farage, Mahy 2016: > > "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said." > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681 > > > > It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ... > > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular. > > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
> > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway.
> >
> > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway.
> >
> > We are all in denial.
> As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
>
___________________
Farage castigates the government for not delivering Brexit and then accuses May of surrender when she tries to do just that.
Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage.
Indeed. What a troublesome situation. They were clearly going nowhere the whole time but I'm kind of sad the labour Tory talks are done, as it at least gave the appearance that the various sides were trying to talk things out to resolve it.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320 > > > > > > > > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same. > > > > Farage, May 2019: > > "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result." > > > > Farage, Mahy 2016: > > "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said." > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681 > > > > It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ... > > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular. > > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
Indeed. And as with Trump, challenging Farage on his inconsistencies and lies is pointless. The NHS is an obvious weakness, both for the privatisation angle and that the vast majority of people realise it couldn't operate without immigrant doctors, nurses, cleaners and other support staff. But most importantly we need policies that help the many not the few as we were promised by May instead of focusing on the lies of Farage and Boris.
The pattern is (i) referendum called, (ii) result implemented, and then (iii) if the matter remains unsettled, further referendums.
The question in 2016 was whether our relations with the rest of Europe should be based on membership of the EU or not. The big political problem is that simply reorganising our relations based on non membership is considered "not Brexit".
People expect a political revolution of some form, and that's the only thing that will dissipate the pent up frustration from the referendum.
You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
Indeed. One of the more striking features of the likes of Corbyn, Trump, Farage, Johnson, Chavez is that while they shout about new politics and the democratic will, looked at with a cold eye they are almost the archetypes of the caricatures they rail against - except they are less intelligent, less competent and less honest.
> @kle4 said: > I have this terrible thought, which is no doubt why I cannot sleep again (that or excitement to see John wick 3) that Tory policy will soon be little more than the Boris policy of meaningless but bombastic guff, and because it works with the Tory members that means the leadership contest will boil down to who can visibly orgasm the most while yelling 'Brexit!' at the top of their lungs. > > It satisfies them, if no one else, but no one could accuse the Tories of being considerate Brexiters.
Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter.
> @williamglenn said: > A 'No Dealer' would be someone who wants a hard line on immigration, no compromise with the EU at all etc and the Brexit Party would morph largely into a hard right party rather than just a Party representing all Leave voters as it is able to do the longer we stay in the EU > > During the negotiations on the future relationship we *will* face the need to make difficult compromises that go against the vision of Brexit that was sold to the public, and given how controversial the withdrawal agreement is, anyone who wants to overturn the 'establishment' will have an open goal. Farage can just say that the reason Brexit is failing is that the political class betrayed the people by signing the deal.
As I pointed out to you already Leavers of all shades from those who want a Deal but to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union to those who want May's Deal to those who want No Deal at all will be voting Brexit Party in the European elections by either a plurality or majority respectively.
However once we Leave the EU the former will drop away from supporting the Brexit Party as they push for a softer future relationship with the EU. That will just leave Farage crying 'betrayal' to No Dealers
.> You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
Leavers are playing with fire by questioning our democracy, when it is their failure to come up with an actionable plan.
> @Jonathan said: > > What is the Leavers plan to implement Brexit? >
---
I am happy with May's WA. It should be passed, and the blame lies with those who did not vote for it (basically, extremists on both sides).
A result 52:48 implies compromise.
If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost.
Longman in Queensland showing the populist anti immigration One Nation Party up the most on the primary votes and their preferences helping the Coalition on preferences to regain the seat they lost in a by election
Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter.
He was marked as a coming man many years ago. But he wasn't noted for his skills in withdrawal.
He did allegedly help to abort once though. Does that count?
> > Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is.
>
> Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
>
> The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
Thats what they did last time, extending though we had no plan. I'd put the chances of doing so again as lower but I'm surprised they did it once.
What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @MattW said: > > Thanks to whoever posted the "Islamophobia" 'working' 'definition'. Unable to find the post now. > > > > Had been looking for it on their website, and notfound it. > > > > What a hopelessly shoddy piece of work - so based on very current affairs that it will have a shelf-life of at best a couple of years. > > > > This process lost credibility with me personally when the original set of "weekly occurrences of Islamophobia" from the MCB turned out to be dragged together from a whole decade of social media 'sharings' , and prompt action had generally been taken when the Tory Party became aware. > > > > https://twitter.com/MuslimCouncil/status/1001914876992868352 > > Whilst I agree that the definition is pants, I do think the Conservatives should have an inquiry into such a matter. If they're reasonably clean (as I think they are), then a fair inquiry will show it - and where there are problems, it will give pointers on where and how to how to improve. > > To do otherwise risks slipping and sliding into the morass: the same sort of thinking that Labour's fallen into. "Of course we're clean; we've been anti-Racist all our lives! It's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, are absolutely horrible. Think of all those lovely fireworks the Palestinians keep firing at them, to order to brighten up their day!" > > (The fact a Labour supporter could call Hamas' and Palestinian rockets 'fireworks' shows how far down the self-delusional rabbit-hole they have descended.)
That seems fair comment.
What happened to Labour was that they had the Chakrobati (sp?) report, which was a bit of a whitewashed, interminable weasel words from Corbyn et al, and now have an official investigation by the EHRC with a 15,000 page dossier of evidence submitted by their critics.
A (rapid) and authoritative enquiry would not be a bad thing in Toryland.
It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @nichomar said: > > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > What % of MPs? Of the cabinet? Of past and present Brexit secretaries?
So how do WTO Brexiteers get away with telling us it’s the will of the people?
> @ydoethur said: > What is the Leavers plan > > You're making one hell of an assumption there Jonathan!
I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation. They blame the whole world for not coming up with a way to implement their policy. And yet we have had leading Brexiteers negotiate an agreement with the EU, which they themselves have voted against. Amongst Leavers there are about 3-4 positions, of which a couple are unicorns.
It is pathetic. What do they do? Whinge about others and shout betrayal.
As I pointed out to you already Leavers of all shades from those who want a Deal but to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union to those who want May's Deal to those who want No Deal at all will be voting Brexit Party in the European elections by either a plurality or majority respectively.
However once we Leave the EU the former will drop away from supporting the Brexit Party as they push for a softer future relationship with the EU. That will just leave Farage crying 'betrayal' to No Dealers
You're assuming that people understand what they mean, and mean what they say. We arrived at this point because of a ratchet effect that will not stop by ratifying a deal that changes nothing except terminating formal membership and plunging us into further negotiations from a weaker position.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > What is the Leavers plan to implement Brexit? > > > > --- > > I am happy with May's WA. It should be passed, and the blame lies with those who did not vote for it (basically, extremists on both sides). > > A result 52:48 implies compromise. > > If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost. >
It seems the WA is far more acceptable (if not popular) on this board than with the general public. Might a citizens assembly of a few hundred selected by lot (same process as jury process) get to a similar compromise as they gained understanding of the detail and the issues? Would enough of the extremes accept a compromise if it came about this way?
It is a shame that May is so poor at selling the deal and a disgrace that her cabinet have been virtually silent instead of selling it.
> I have this terrible thought, which is no doubt why I cannot sleep again (that or excitement to see John wick 3) that Tory policy will soon be little more than the Boris policy of meaningless but bombastic guff, and because it works with the Tory members that means the leadership contest will boil down to who can visibly orgasm the most while yelling 'Brexit!' at the top of their lungs.
>
> It satisfies them, if no one else, but no one could accuse the Tories of being considerate Brexiters.
Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter.
It's worse if you imagine it being while they are all in the same room, in front of a press pack, as Farage looks on in approval. *shudder*
How's this for a comment from 2004 that hasn't perhaps aged very well:
'This is nothing to do with personal morality. Last weekend when all this came up Michael stood by him and said shadow ministers can live their lives as they want, it was not a matter for him,' said one. But 'it is a matter for him when shadow ministers don't tell the truth'.
Howard offered him the chance to resign, but Johnson insisted on being fired.
The episode brings an end to an unlikely but uniquely engaging political career. Johnson, 40, who is also editor of the Spectator magazine, became one of the few modern Tories able to capture the public imagination, even provoking speculation he could be a future leader.
He had already survived the now infamous Spectator editorial accusing Liverpool of wallowing in its grief over the death of hostage Kenneth Bigley, after visiting the city to apologise.
But the saga of his alleged relationship with Spectator columnist Wyatt was the last straw. Reports first emerged last weekend that Johnson, married to barrister Marina Wheeler, had had an affair and that his mistress subsequently had an abortion.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > I have this terrible thought, which is no doubt why I cannot sleep again (that or excitement to see John wick 3) that Tory policy will soon be little more than the Boris policy of meaningless but bombastic guff, and because it works with the Tory members that means the leadership contest will boil down to who can visibly orgasm the most while yelling 'Brexit!' at the top of their lungs. > > > > > > It satisfies them, if no one else, but no one could accuse the Tories of being considerate Brexiters. > > > > Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter. > > > > > > It's worse if you imagine it being while they are all in the same room, in front of a press pack, as Farage looks on in approval. *shudder*
It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU.
I don't want a preferential relationship with them. I would expect reciprocal low, or no tariffs because it would benefit both parties, but if it didn't happen it would be no cause for anguish. The clothes I'm wearing are mostly from India. The phone I'm on is Japanese (goodness knows where its actually made but its outside the EU). Find a good product, market it well, offer it at the right price. That's how to prosper. Needing to be part of a vast bureaucracy in order to get a few pennies off a pound of butter is utterly absurd.
> @Jonathan said: > > I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation.
When did any politician take responsibility?
You are a Labour Party member. I don't recall anyone from the Labour Party taking responsibility for the most serious fuck-up in my life, the Iraq War.
There, lies were told to the British people by those at the top of the Labour Party, which resulted in a squalid, adventurist war, serious loss of life and instability in Iraq for years to come.
And you whinge about Farage. Stop your whinging & faux outrage, and look at your own party and its actions.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are? > > I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
_____________________
The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed.
You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ?
In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront?
> I am happy with May's WA. It should be passed, and the blame lies with those who did not vote for it (basically, extremists on both sides).
>
> A result 52:48 implies compromise.
>
> If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost.
>
It seems the WA is far more acceptable (if not popular) on this board than with the general public. Might a citizens assembly of a few hundred selected by lot (same process as jury process) get to a similar compromise as they gained understanding of the detail and the issues? Would enough of the extremes accept a compromise if it came about this way?
It is a shame that May is so poor at selling the deal and a disgrace that her cabinet have been virtually silent instead of selling it.
The cabinet by and large have been a disgrace this whole time. I would not be surprised to see most of them disavow what has gone on in the last year given they are often reported to be spitting mad, yet they have chosen to remain in place without even putting in much effort it seems.
> The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> Not yet, anyway.
It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
Remainers dominate parliament.
At no point have a great many within it, or in the country at large ever been willing to accept the result.
This was clearly evidenced by the nonsense of e-petitions started within 24 hours of the remainer defeat. The hatchet job on Leadsom to install the hapless May was Tory remainerism in action.
Since then we've had this constant 'what's the plan?' knowing full well that parliament would never deliver on any of them because it is full of remainers.
It is fairly obvious that the existing parliament needs to be turfed out and replaced with an executive genuinely committed to delivery.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation. > > When did any politician take responsibility? > > You are a Labour Party member. I don't recall anyone from the Labour Party taking responsibility for the most serious fuck-up in my life, the Iraq War. > > There, lies were told to the British people by those at the top of the Labour Party, which resulted in a squalid, adventurist war, serious loss of life and instability in Iraq for years to come. > > And you whinge about Farage. Stop your whinging & faux outrage, and look at your own party and its actions.
That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan.
Morning all and as usual a wonderfully thought provoking thread from David.
However what about this scenario?
New Tory PM, hopefully not Boris but certainly a Brexiteer tells Brussels it is either No Backstop or NO Deal. No Backstop has carried already in the HoC with May as PM.
He (since I reckon it will be a he) also tells the HoC to feck off with a Cooper II because he intends to ignore it. He tells the HoC and the Dishonourable Members they have 2 options, No Deal if the EU doesn't agree to No Backstop or a GE. He is of course calling Labour's bluff because they have been calling for a GE since 2017
Farage and the entire Brexit Party loves what the new PM is saying and indicates they will stand in the GE only in marginal seats where they could help the Tories win by splitting the Labour vote. The Tories in turn have no problem ensuring the Dominic Grieves and Oliver Letwins of this world leave Parliament and do not stand as the official Tory candidate because their associations either have or have threatened to deselect them as per Nick Boles. The Tory Party goes into the GE on a solid Brexit at all costs manifesto then all the cash saved goes into schools, housing, NHS etc
Tories lose a handful of soft seats to the LibDems in the south and scoop up dozens of Brexit supporting Labour seats in the Midlands and North. New PM has his mandate and Brexit proceeds without the backstop because the EU shits itself given that by October, Italy is going tits up, Germany is on the point of recession and Trump is doing his best to win a battle with China over economics which he can never win.
Have a lovely day everyone. I am looking forward to the Brexit Party winning 1 and possibly even 2 seats in Scotland on Thursday with Tory and Labour both possibly failing to win any. Either 3 SNP 2Brexit 1LibDem or 3 SNP, 1 Brexit, 1 LibDem and 1 among Tory/Lab/Green
For the record this life long Tory has voted for the Brexit Party. By a week on Monday we should have a gay, black 40 something businessman as a Scottish MEP given that he is No 1 on the Brexit party list in Scotland
> @thecommissioner said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause. > > > > > > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process. > > > > > > Not yet, anyway. > > > > It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions. > > > > There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints. > > Remainers dominate parliament. > > At no point have a great many within it, or in the country at large ever been willing to accept the result. > > This was clearly evidenced by the nonsense of e-petitions started within 24 hours of the remainer defeat. The hatchet job on Leadsom to install the hapless May was Tory remainerism in action. > > Since then we've had this constant 'what's the plan?' knowing full well that parliament would never deliver on any of them because it is full of remainers. > > It is fairly obvious that the existing parliament needs to be turfed out and replaced with an executive genuinely committed to delivery. > > Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost.
Remainers can't agree a plan.
London liberal Remain is not the same as Scottish, Irish, Welsh nationalist remain, but let us leave the UK.
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent. > > In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU. > > I don't want a preferential relationship with them. I would expect reciprocal low, or no tariffs because it would benefit both parties, but if it didn't happen it would be no cause for anguish. The clothes I'm wearing are mostly from India. The phone I'm on is Japanese (goodness knows where its actually made but its outside the EU). Find a good product, market it well, offer it at the right price. That's how to prosper. Needing to be part of a vast bureaucracy in order to get a few pennies off a pound of butter is utterly absurd.
A key questions is would a WTO Brexit include an approx £20bn divorce payment?
If this is not allowed expectations of reciprocal low tariffs are unicorns.
If this is allowed then just accept the WA and move onto negotiating the future relationship part. Our exact relationship for a couple of years transition is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders. Today, for the first time ever, she intimated that we might have to relocate because she is scared where all this is heading.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Why would an Anglophobe want to live on the Midsomer Murders set? Or did you mean Anglophile?
My wife is a cultural Anglophobe of long standing. I suspect the only reason she married me was so she could live somewhere that looks like Midsomer Murders.
She was not put off by the presentation of very picturesque areas being hotbeds of secrets and murder?
> @ydoethur said: > Coalition now up to 40 Labor on 28 and 3 Others as almost half the results from Australia now in > > Where are you getting this information from?
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
_____________________
The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed.
You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ?
In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront?
You're conflating 'no deal', a situation where there are no interim arrangements and no agreed process for leaving, with WTO, which is leaving in an agreed way, but totally. I don't think no deal is necessarily better than the WA and I've never said so. I think the following: WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what. No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
Morning all and as usual a wonderfully thought provoking thread from David.
However what about this scenario?
New Tory PM, hopefully not Boris but certainly a Brexiteer tells Brussels it is either No Backstop or NO Deal. No Backstop has carried already in the HoC with May as PM.
He (since I reckon it will be a he) also tells the HoC to feck off with a Cooper II because he intends to ignore it. He tells the HoC and the Dishonourable Members they have 2 options, No Deal if the EU doesn't agree to No Backstop or a GE. He is of course calling Labour's bluff because they have been calling for a GE since 2017
Farage and the entire Brexit Party loves what the new PM is saying and indicates they will stand in the GE only in marginal seats where they could help the Tories win by splitting the Labour vote. The Tories in turn have no problem ensuring the Dominic Grieves and Oliver Letwins of this world leave Parliament and do not stand as the official Tory candidate because their associations either have or have threatened to deselect them as per Nick Boles. The Tory Party goes into the GE on a solid Brexit at all costs manifesto then all the cash saved goes into schools, housing, NHS etc
Tories lose a handful of soft seats to the LibDems in the south and scoop up dozens of Brexit supporting Labour seats in the Midlands and North. New PM has his mandate and Brexit proceeds without the backstop because the EU shits itself given that by October, Italy is going tits up, Germany is on the point of recession and Trump is doing his best to win a battle with China over economics which he can never win.
Have a lovely day everyone. I am looking forward to the Brexit Party winning 1 and possibly even 2 seats in Scotland on Thursday with Tory and Labour both possibly failing to win any. Either 3 SNP 2Brexit 1LibDem or 3 SNP, 1 Brexit, 1 LibDem and 1 among Tory/Lab/Green
For the record this life long Tory has voted for the Brexit Party. By a week on Monday we should have a gay, black 40 something businessman as a Scottish MEP given that he is No 1 on the Brexit party list in Scotland
This is like a chapter of The Turner Diaries that the editor discarded.
One Nation up 6% in Braddon in Tasmania and despite the Liberals down on first preferences as a result they win on preferences and that will be a Liberal gain from Labor
> @Jonathan said: > .> You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire. > > Leavers are playing with fire by questioning our democracy, when it is their failure to come up with an actionable plan. > >
I don't buy the "it's all leaver's fault" thing. It's an abject failure on the part of the 650 tossers in the Commons that has bought us to this crisis. You can blame the likes of Farage and the bloke from Wetherspoons, but they ain't the ones who can actually do anything apart from rant from the sidelines. Obviously they can shape opinion but can't implement it. As much as it pains me, I don't even blame the likes of Blair, Adonis or Campbell on the other side. It's not even Gina Miller's problem. Westminster is the only place that can solve it but they dropped the ball from the moment Cameron called the referendum. No real case made for why we should remain, a crap campaign, even with the 9 million quids worth of recycling they produced. Now it's just descended into name calling and social media rants. There has been no leadership from any of them, just infighting and manoeuvring for political gain, the main parties terrified of upsetting their core vote, even though they don't really know what their core vote is anymore.
Comments
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway.
>
> >
>
> > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway.
>
> >
>
> > We are all in denial.
>
> As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
>
> What if it’s Leavers who decide to revoke?
It won't be, 184 MPs voted to revoke in the indicative votes, every one of them a Remainer.
160 MPs voted for No Deal, everyone of them a Leaver
> Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Plenty of Leavers produced {mutually contradictory} summaries of how Brexit would work but Westminster {including leavers} has refused to even implement Brexit so discussions on the future relationship can even properly begin {because they don't agree even on the basics, which is exactly the point}
>
> ^ made my comments inline. I'm happy that we are reasonably aligned in this.
>
>
>
Brexit will work if the powers let it. 3 years after the Ref. economy still strong. EU is a fantasy
> > @argyllrs said:
> > Not convinced that either Con or Lab do well long term if revoke happens.
> > The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal.
> > If revoke is implemented then;-
> > Cons will not get a majority for years - and don't rely on the propaganda of Brexit being a right wing party. If and it's a big if they can keep Claire Fox and others then it will be more a party of individual rights and will not necessarily support Tories in a coalition. To me it could be more akin to the historic Liberal Party?
> > Labour have a different problem. If the Brexit Party can be anywhere near relevant for the northern working classes then Labour could end up becoming much more a chattering class party of navel gazers. This then leaves them competing more directly with Liberal Democrats and Greens and with minimal automatic votes to count on.
> > Hoping the issue will go away is a pipe dream. The EU will continue integrating and will not allow us to keep holding them back - for the next twenty years at least, with each new treaty more people will say enough is enough.
> > I don't believe that the Brexit Party will quite pull off all that they hope, but unless a pretty hard Brexit is now achieved they will need to be factored in to any hopes of winning a GE.
>
> Claire Fox is no longer left wing, despite her pro-terrorist Revolutionary Communist Party roots. Interestingly, the Brexit Party includes a number of these other former RCP members, but they do seem to have changed their views according to what Moscow wants:
>
> https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1128429129433526272?s=19
>
> Though to be fair, as the BP has published no manifesto or policy other than WTO Brexit, we really do not know if it is a left or right wing party. Currently they are thriving on ambiguity.
" The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal."
Maybe, or maybe it's a free protest vote.
> > @DoubleD said:
> > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
>
> that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
Gregg's not short of a few bob...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
> > @FF43 said:
> > Brexit is a huge mess that merely gets embedded in if we do pass the Withdrawal Agreement . There seems little appetite for a damage limited Brexit consisting of May's Deal plus permanent negotiations/non stop concessions to the EU. No Deal just turns a highly damaging Brexit into a catastrophic one and we will end up in the EU or "Vassal State" anyway.
> >
> > It comes down whether we want to deal with the mess or face up to Farage, who will exploit any No Deal or Vassal State outcomes anyway.
> >
> > We are all in denial.
> As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
>
___________________
Farage castigates the government for not delivering Brexit and then accuses May of surrender when she tries to do just that.
Brexit is a monster, personified by Farage.
There is clearly a majority against no deal.
There is probably not a majority for revoke.
And yet, as David points out, eventually one of these 3 has to happen.
Revoke might be dressed up with a second referendum but the contempt that the political class have shown to the view of the people, having asked them, will remain no matter what and our politics is sorely damaged. So far as engagement, credibility and even participation is concerned this is at least 10x worse than the expenses scandal. The damage this alienation will do to our country is on a different scale to anything that might have been caused by Brexit.
For me, the only way forward is, somewhat ironically, through the EU. I would expect them to say that October is it. Either we revoke and re-engage committing ourselves to the next budget round, taking up a Commissioner, try to regain some of the crumbs that left our table or we leave. If we leave it is on no deal or May's deal. No more negotiations. Our pathetic political class must no longer be given the option of not making decisions.
> My main worry about Boris (among many) is he'd "see his place in History" by "standing shoulder to shoulder" with Trump in an Iran war. One of Harold Wilson's oft overlooked strengths was his repeated refusals to LBJ to join in Vietnam....especially if Macron joins in....
----------
I'd actually feel more confident about Johnson being able to say no to America than Hunt, Raab, Javid or some of the others.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
> >
> ------
>
> Passing the deal would not only help Farage to win, but it would help him stay in power afterwards because he'd be no longer be on the hook for implementing No Deal.
>
> "We are all in denial".
Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal.
The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro
(1) grant indefinite extension without date or conditions
(2) tell us to send them a text message when we've got agreement from parliament on something
(3) think about something else
(4) go and see a performance of Waiting for Godot for a change.
Galaxy exit poll, 2PP: Labor 52 Coalition 48
ABC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Vr1mfnWVY
9 News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d47NV6qKYAw
Results: https://www.abc.net.au/news/politics/ and https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-24310.htm
Penny Wong cautious for Labor on ABC.
Thanks & g'day!!
DC
> > @DoubleD said:
> > Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
>
> that will be backers, not bakers. I don't know the opinion or wealth of bakers!
The next PPB for the Tories will be from Warburtons.
Featuring a selection of the muppets. Together with some of Jim Henson's creations.....
> The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
>
> If we're going to have Brexit I'd rather it was implemented by a Farage government than a Tory government: At least he's closely enough identified with the whole thing that when the thing fails most of the people who voted for it will be able to see that thing failed.
>
> If the Tories do it the Faragists will just blame the failure on Remainers and insist that it requires something even more extreme, and either we'll end up with the Faragist government anyhow or the Tories will keep chasing after ever-more-extreme levels of Faragism.
>
The problem is the Tories cannot do it themselves as they do not have a majority in the Commons and a handful of them are diehard Remainers like Grieve and Lee, if the WA finally passes it will be thanks to Labour MPs in Leave seats concerned at the rise of the BP.
Otherwise as you say it will require PM Farage and the Brexit Party winning a Commons majority to deliver Brexit
>
> Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal.
>
>
> The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections
>
----------
After having left with the withdrawal agreement, what will it mean to be a "No Dealer"? It will mean someone who thinks, "We wouldn't be in this mess if we'd just left with No Deal." Support for "No Deal" would in that sense grow, not shrink, and Farage would benefit.
If it came to No Deal or Revoke due to EU actions, Revoke would of course happen. But that in itself would damage the EU's already threadbare credibility and probably fuel the rise of a hardline leaver government that could cause utter chaos.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @argyllrs said:
> > > Not convinced that either Con or Lab do well long term if revoke happens.
> > > The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal.
> > > If revoke is implemented then;-
> > > Cons will not get a majority for years - and don't rely on the propaganda of Brexit being a right wing party. If and it's a big if they can keep Claire Fox and others then it will be more a party of individual rights and will not necessarily support Tories in a coalition. To me it could be more akin to the historic Liberal Party?
> > > Labour have a different problem. If the Brexit Party can be anywhere near relevant for the northern working classes then Labour could end up becoming much more a chattering class party of navel gazers. This then leaves them competing more directly with Liberal Democrats and Greens and with minimal automatic votes to count on.
> > > Hoping the issue will go away is a pipe dream. The EU will continue integrating and will not allow us to keep holding them back - for the next twenty years at least, with each new treaty more people will say enough is enough.
> > > I don't believe that the Brexit Party will quite pull off all that they hope, but unless a pretty hard Brexit is now achieved they will need to be factored in to any hopes of winning a GE.
> >
> > Claire Fox is no longer left wing, despite her pro-terrorist Revolutionary Communist Party roots. Interestingly, the Brexit Party includes a number of these other former RCP members, but they do seem to have changed their views according to what Moscow wants:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1128429129433526272?s=19
> >
> > Though to be fair, as the BP has published no manifesto or policy other than WTO Brexit, we really do not know if it is a left or right wing party. Currently they are thriving on ambiguity.
>
> " The BXP show the numbers of people who find leaving the EU a big deal."
> Maybe, or maybe it's a free protest vote.
Ambiguity on Brexit worked well enough for Labour for a while.
Now Labour resembles a Christmas balloon, discovered behind the sofa mid-February.....
The problems come directly from this:
along with this....
“By constituency By Party
Lab: 148 Leave | 84 Remain
Con: 247 Leave | 80 Remain”
Clearing out some of the unrepresentative parts of parliament is a pre-requisite of moving things on.
The electorate took the Tories and Labour at their word in 2017 when they said they would deliver on Brexit. They haven't and now their support is collapsing as both their competence and integrity is in doubt.
> Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
I don't think anyone actually believed that TMay had some kind of workable plan that might go somewhere, did they?
It's certainly *possible* that the rest of the EU (or one of the member states) would say "this is getting ridiculous" and try to force the issue, but I think it's more likely they'd grant another extension, for the exact same reasons that they granted the previous one.
> > @algarkirk said:
> > Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is.
>
> Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
>
> The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
I don't think the EU would throw the UK out without a deal (and thereby throw Ireland under the bus as well) - they would not want to set such a precedent and anyway having a humbled UK shorn of political influence but still contributing to the budget would be an excellent result from an EU perspective, what's not to like for them?
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > The electorate are fed up with both a failure to deliver and the general lack of gumption on display in our skewed parliament.
>
>
>
> The electorate are fed up with the parliament it elected less than 2 years ago?
>
> I mean, yes. Perhaps the blame lies with the electorate this time.
>
> The voters were offered an overwhelming choice of remainers to deliver Brexit, so it's little surprise that parliament lacks the desire and spirit to do it properly.
>
> The problems come directly from this:
>
>
>
> along with this....
>
> “By constituency By Party
>
> Lab: 148 Leave | 84 Remain
> Con: 247 Leave | 80 Remain”
>
> Clearing out some of the unrepresentative parts of parliament is a pre-requisite of moving things on.
>
> The electorate took the Tories and Labour at their word in 2017 when they said they would deliver on Brexit. They haven't and now their support is collapsing as both their competence and integrity is in doubt.
The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > @malcolmg said:
> > > > Much like the way YES was robbed in 2014 and the whining continues, I will whine till the next one gives us independence. I am certain it will not be all sweetness and light down south regardless of what may is chosen, there will be almost half pissed off either way, same as Scotland and it will need to be done again at some point.
> > >
> > > Not quite the same though, the equivalent is Yes winning in 2014 52% to 48% for No and Westminster refusing to recognise and implement the Yes to independence vote
> > >
> > > It was a very close referendum and as I say almost half will not be happy regardless of which way they go. England is F****d for many years.
> >
> > Referendums are often very divisive unless one side wins comfortably but you still should respect the result of them however close they are
>
> Not when the Tories "win" by cheating. They overlooked the fact that seeming to win is one thing, and getting acceptance for that result is quite another.
Ahem - LDs fined by the electoral commission over Referendum spending I seem to recall.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
>
> Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
Farage, May 2019:
"You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
Farage, Mahy 2016:
"There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > >
> > > As are Remainers who ignore the risks of a Farage premiership and the Brexit Party winning the next general election if they revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit
> > >
> > ------
> >
> > Passing the deal would not only help Farage to win, but it would help him stay in power afterwards because he'd be no longer be on the hook for implementing No Deal.
> >
> > "We are all in denial".
>
> Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal.
>
>
> The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections
>
>
>
> https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro
_________________
It doesn't matter what people say in an opinion poll because they think that Brexit is a one off transition where it gets dealt with and we move on. In fact it just opens year after dreary year of negotiations where we concede everything to the EU and wait on the pleasure of third countries. A case can be made for this if we decide EU membership is an absolute no and damage limitation is an acceptable alternative. No-one is making this case and Farage will exploit it to the full.
It keeps coming back to this core point. Brexit is the problem.
> Thanks, Mr Herdson, for an interesting analysis.
>
> I'm bored with Brexit, but it has achieved something positive. It's shown up MPs for what they are. Self-serving liars.
>
> Manifestos are irrelevant, to be forgotten at will. The voters' verdict is to be ignored by these paragons of virtue who know better. Purely by virtue of being chosen from a selection of two candidates who toe the party line, and have all the faults of MPs (see above).
>
> I was talking to one Brexit voter who is an avid Corbyn fan and he's decided to vote for Labour? Why? Because he's frightened the Labour party could have a spectacularly bad result in the Euros.
>
> A revoke? It would solve one problem but reinforce the anti-democratic reputation of whoever did it.
>
>
Manifestos are a guide to what a party would do in a majority government, not a cast iron guarantee of their actions regardless of events and consequences.
In a hung parliament they can only ever be, at best, an aspiration as no-one has a majority.
This isn't difficult stuff, and until the age of the re-tweet to expose people as "liars and traitors" seemed perfectly acceptable to the British public. As much as we (rightly) complain about our MPs, the electorate has developed some pretty bizarre expectations in the age of social media, and it does the country great harm.
Not yet, anyway.
What research we have seen suggests Labour Leavers are less likely to prioritize Brexit than Tory Leavers .
This is why Labour has lost a much smaller proportion of its Leavers to the BP than the Tories have .
Indeed the biggest movement of Leave to Remain has been due to Labour Leavers changing their view .
> Revoke will never happen. Farage would become PM, Labour/Tories will be destroyed. The mess is caused by Remainer parliament. The people are very, very angry, and they will not lose. Top Tories tell me they are skint. Most bakers are Leavers and quite rightly they will not back a wet remainer party.
I assume that by "the people" you mean some subset of the 52% who voted in the 2016 referendum to leave the EU (whose wishes the government has jettisoned all other business to try to fulfil, only to be thwarted by MPs who also claim to want to deliver on these wishes but refuse to vote for the one means of achieving that). Plenty of other people are far more angry about the absurd focus on delivering an undeliverable promise made by charlatans and liars than about the failure to deliver it. But presumably these people are not "the people".
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
> >
> > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
>
> Farage, May 2019:
> "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
>
> Farage, Mahy 2016:
> "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
>
> It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
Do not underestimate the wave of rage, disgust and contempt that he is riding.
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @JosiasJessop said:
> > > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > > Revoke and then what?
> > >
> > > That is precisely the question. It would do nothing to fix the glaring gulf that currently divides out politics, and risks dividing segments of our society.
> >
> > We were divided 52:48 three years ago, now it's probably the other way round and more than 4%. So after Revoke we would still be divided but the economy would be in better shape than the alternative and we would be slightly less divided than the alternative. What should be done is the government should address the concerns of the areas that we're put in the position of thinking they had nothing to lose by voting Leave.
>
> I voted remain. I would vote remain in a second referendum (although I'd caveat that by saying it would depend on the individual question and options being sensible). However I think public opinion has not shifted as much as you think, and that a second referendum with sensible options would lead to another leave result - and perhaps by a larger margin.
>
> Why?
>
> Because:
> *) Much if Brexit is not about fact, but about emotion, and the 'betrayal' narrative will be strong.
> *) Remainers have been doing lots of howling, but making f'all effort to actually sell the good the EU does.
> *) People will not like being asked the 'same' question twice, even though the original referendum was flawed and parliament has been proven to be incompetent.
I agree with most of that, I think there is probably a majority in the country for revoke vs no deal, but may not be a majority out of those motivated to vote. Risking no deal instead of the TM deal is a big strategic mistake for those who want a close relationship with the EU.
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
What % of MPs? Of the cabinet? Of past and present Brexit secretaries?
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > Rubbish, according to YouGov even a plurality of voters who back a Brexit Deal ie May's Deal or a different Deal will vote Brexit Party in the European elections in protest at the fact we are still in the EU, they will return to the main parties once we do Leave the EU with a Deal.
> >
> >
> > The Brexit Party would not disappear but it would just be left with No Dealers, a majority of whom will vote for Farage in the European elections
> >
> ----------
>
> After having left with the withdrawal agreement, what will it mean to be a "No Dealer"? It will mean someone who thinks, "We wouldn't be in this mess if we'd just left with No Deal." Support for "No Deal" would in that sense grow, not shrink, and Farage would benefit.
A 'No Dealer' would be someone who wants a hard line on immigration, no compromise with the EU at all and straight to WTO terms etc and the Brexit Party would morph largely into a populist, hard right party rather than just a Party representing all Leave voters as it is able to do the longer we stay in the EU.
He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
> > @algarkirk said:
> > Can we be not be further extensions from October? And why not? There may be a good reason, it all gets a bit confusing, but I don't know what it is.
>
> Yes, but the (IMO perfectly reasonable) EU position is that they are tired of this soap opera, and they will only give an extension if it'll be used for something quite specific. They agreed to the extension till October on the basis that May promised that we'd really get on with it, get a bipartisan deal or whatever. She then sent Parliament off on a long holiday, after which desultory talks resumed with no expectation of success.
>
> The EU likes Britain, by and large. They wish us well. They even wish we'd Revoke. But really they want us to stop pissing about indefinitely. An extension in October because there'a new PM and a referendum or an election imminent, OK. An extension to explore what might maybe done? NON.
___________________
In the balance I think. The EU doesn't like the current situation and will decide entirely on its own perceived self interest. However, they want the UK bound by their terms and the current uneasy equilibrium gives them that.
Coalition 10 Lab 1 Green 0 Others 2
> The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> Not yet, anyway.
It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
> Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular.
>
> He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
I don't much like Farage, but I don't think what he said is inconsistent.
Nothing is settled forever, I expect there will be another SIndy, for example.
The pattern is (i) referendum called, (ii) result implemented, and then (iii) if the matter remains unsettled, further referendums.
> > @rottenborough said
> > Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular.
> >
> > He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
>
> I don't much like Farage, but I don't think what he said is inconsistent.
>
> Nothing is settled forever, I expect there will be another SIndy, for example.
>
> The pattern is (i) referendum called, (ii) result implemented, and then (iii) if the matter remains unsettled, further referendums.
>
What is the Leavers plan to implement Brexit?
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
>
>
>
> Farage, May 2019:
>
> "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
>
>
>
> Farage, Mahy 2016:
>
> "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
>
>
>
> It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
>
> Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular.
>
> He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > The main parties have been warned. I doubt they will respond sensibly or even take this seriously:
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1129431534065336320
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Farage equates democracy with everyone doing what he wants, They are not the same.
>
>
>
> Farage, May 2019:
>
> "You see, democracy only works if the losers accept the result."
>
>
>
> Farage, Mahy 2016:
>
> "There could be unstoppable demand for a re-run of the EU referendum if Remain wins by a narrow margin on 23 June, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has said."
>
>
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
>
>
>
> It seems Farage's views on what losers should depends on whether he is on the losing or winning side ...
>
> Of course. He would say black is white one day, and the reverse the next, depending on what seems most popular.
>
> He is Britain's Trump. The truth no longer matters.
Indeed. And as with Trump, challenging Farage on his inconsistencies and lies is pointless. The NHS is an obvious weakness, both for the privatisation angle and that the vast majority of people realise it couldn't operate without immigrant doctors, nurses, cleaners and other support staff. But most importantly we need policies that help the many not the few as we were promised by May instead of focusing on the lies of Farage and Boris.
People expect a political revolution of some form, and that's the only thing that will dissipate the pent up frustration from the referendum.
> I have this terrible thought, which is no doubt why I cannot sleep again (that or excitement to see John wick 3) that Tory policy will soon be little more than the Boris policy of meaningless but bombastic guff, and because it works with the Tory members that means the leadership contest will boil down to who can visibly orgasm the most while yelling 'Brexit!' at the top of their lungs.
>
> It satisfies them, if no one else, but no one could accuse the Tories of being considerate Brexiters.
Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter.
> A 'No Dealer' would be someone who wants a hard line on immigration, no compromise with the EU at all etc and the Brexit Party would morph largely into a hard right party rather than just a Party representing all Leave voters as it is able to do the longer we stay in the EU
>
> During the negotiations on the future relationship we *will* face the need to make difficult compromises that go against the vision of Brexit that was sold to the public, and given how controversial the withdrawal agreement is, anyone who wants to overturn the 'establishment' will have an open goal. Farage can just say that the reason Brexit is failing is that the political class betrayed the people by signing the deal.
As I pointed out to you already Leavers of all shades from those who want a Deal but to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union to those who want May's Deal to those who want No Deal at all will be voting Brexit Party in the European elections by either a plurality or majority respectively.
However once we Leave the EU the former will drop away from supporting the Brexit Party as they push for a softer future relationship with the EU. That will just leave Farage crying 'betrayal' to No Dealers
Leavers are playing with fire by questioning our democracy, when it is their failure to come up with an actionable plan.
>
> What is the Leavers plan to implement Brexit?
>
---
I am happy with May's WA. It should be passed, and the blame lies with those who did not vote for it (basically, extremists on both sides).
A result 52:48 implies compromise.
If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost.
He did allegedly help to abort once though. Does that count?
> > @MattW said:
> > Thanks to whoever posted the "Islamophobia" 'working' 'definition'. Unable to find the post now.
> >
> > Had been looking for it on their website, and notfound it.
> >
> > What a hopelessly shoddy piece of work - so based on very current affairs that it will have a shelf-life of at best a couple of years.
> >
> > This process lost credibility with me personally when the original set of "weekly occurrences of Islamophobia" from the MCB turned out to be dragged together from a whole decade of social media 'sharings' , and prompt action had generally been taken when the Tory Party became aware.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MuslimCouncil/status/1001914876992868352
>
> Whilst I agree that the definition is pants, I do think the Conservatives should have an inquiry into such a matter. If they're reasonably clean (as I think they are), then a fair inquiry will show it - and where there are problems, it will give pointers on where and how to how to improve.
>
> To do otherwise risks slipping and sliding into the morass: the same sort of thinking that Labour's fallen into. "Of course we're clean; we've been anti-Racist all our lives! It's just that the Jews, I mean Israel, are absolutely horrible. Think of all those lovely fireworks the Palestinians keep firing at them, to order to brighten up their day!"
>
> (The fact a Labour supporter could call Hamas' and Palestinian rockets 'fireworks' shows how far down the self-delusional rabbit-hole they have descended.)
That seems fair comment.
What happened to Labour was that they had the Chakrobati (sp?) report, which was a bit of a whitewashed, interminable weasel words from Corbyn et al, and now have an official investigation by the EHRC with a 15,000 page dossier of evidence submitted by their critics.
A (rapid) and authoritative enquiry would not be a bad thing in Toryland.
Now Coalition 29 Labor 22 Greens 0 Others 2
> > @nichomar said:
> > What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> What % of MPs? Of the cabinet? Of past and present Brexit secretaries?
So how do WTO Brexiteers get away with telling us it’s the will of the people?
> What is the Leavers plan
>
> You're making one hell of an assumption there Jonathan!
I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation. They blame the whole world for not coming up with a way to implement their policy. And yet we have had leading Brexiteers negotiate an agreement with the EU, which they themselves have voted against. Amongst Leavers there are about 3-4 positions, of which a couple are unicorns.
It is pathetic. What do they do? Whinge about others and shout betrayal.
> > @Jonathan said:
> >
> > What is the Leavers plan to implement Brexit?
> >
>
> ---
>
> I am happy with May's WA. It should be passed, and the blame lies with those who did not vote for it (basically, extremists on both sides).
>
> A result 52:48 implies compromise.
>
> If Remainers insist on Remaining, insist on nothing changing, then they can probably thwart Brexit, but I agree with DavidL that this will be at a serious long-term cost.
>
It seems the WA is far more acceptable (if not popular) on this board than with the general public. Might a citizens assembly of a few hundred selected by lot (same process as jury process) get to a similar compromise as they gained understanding of the detail and the issues? Would enough of the extremes accept a compromise if it came about this way?
It is a shame that May is so poor at selling the deal and a disgrace that her cabinet have been virtually silent instead of selling it.
'This is nothing to do with personal morality. Last weekend when all this came up Michael stood by him and said shadow ministers can live their lives as they want, it was not a matter for him,' said one. But 'it is a matter for him when shadow ministers don't tell the truth'.
Howard offered him the chance to resign, but Johnson insisted on being fired.
The episode brings an end to an unlikely but uniquely engaging political career. Johnson, 40, who is also editor of the Spectator magazine, became one of the few modern Tories able to capture the public imagination, even provoking speculation he could be a future leader.
He had already survived the now infamous Spectator editorial accusing Liverpool of wallowing in its grief over the death of hostage Kenneth Bigley, after visiting the city to apologise.
But the saga of his alleged relationship with Spectator columnist Wyatt was the last straw. Reports first emerged last weekend that Johnson, married to barrister Marina Wheeler, had had an affair and that his mistress subsequently had an abortion.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/nov/14/uk.conservatives
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > I have this terrible thought, which is no doubt why I cannot sleep again (that or excitement to see John wick 3) that Tory policy will soon be little more than the Boris policy of meaningless but bombastic guff, and because it works with the Tory members that means the leadership contest will boil down to who can visibly orgasm the most while yelling 'Brexit!' at the top of their lungs.
>
> >
>
> > It satisfies them, if no one else, but no one could accuse the Tories of being considerate Brexiters.
>
>
>
> Oh dear! The thought of Boris visibly orgasming - let alone the other candidates - while shouting "Brexit!" has quite ruined my breakfast. With laughter.
>
>
>
>
>
> It's worse if you imagine it being while they are all in the same room, in front of a press pack, as Farage looks on in approval. *shudder*
Think of Farage as in the fluffer role.
>
> I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation.
When did any politician take responsibility?
You are a Labour Party member. I don't recall anyone from the Labour Party taking responsibility for the most serious fuck-up in my life, the Iraq War.
There, lies were told to the British people by those at the top of the Labour Party, which resulted in a squalid, adventurist war, serious loss of life and instability in Iraq for years to come.
And you whinge about Farage. Stop your whinging & faux outrage, and look at your own party and its actions.
It’s only because the no dealers are now driving the narrative that compromise is no longer possible .
After the ref polling was done which asked Leavers what they expected . A range of views from single market , single market and customs union ,etc.
Somehow the no dealers have forced through a narrative that only a no deal honours Brexit.
This really has polarized the country further .
> What % of the UK electorate could give a reasonable explanation of what “leave on WTO rules” means and what WTO rules are?
>
> I think a reasonable explanation of 'WTO' would be that we leave every aspect of EU membership, enjoying none of the economic benefits of membership, suffering none of the economic liabilities of membership, and continuing to trade with the EU as a third party, like India, China, Botswana etc. It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
_____________________
The UK government went into considerable detail of No Deal Brexit means. It didn't make pretty reading and Dominic Raab was very uncomfortable explaining them during his brief unsuccessful stint as Brexit Sec. The notices split into two basic statements: 1. Businesses etc make your own plans because you will be screwed. 2. A deal on this particular thing has to happen because otherwise we are all screwed.
You don't think in the case of 2. that the EU won't go, sure, a deal, now about the withdrawal agreement ... ?
In what way is this better than accepting the WA upfront?
At no point have a great many within it, or in the country at large ever been willing to accept the result.
This was clearly evidenced by the nonsense of e-petitions started within 24 hours of the remainer defeat. The hatchet job on Leadsom to install the hapless May was Tory remainerism in action.
Since then we've had this constant 'what's the plan?' knowing full well that parliament would never deliver on any of them because it is full of remainers.
It is fairly obvious that the existing parliament needs to be turfed out and replaced with an executive genuinely committed to delivery.
Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
> > @Jonathan said:
> >
> > I am sick of Leavers taking no responsibility for the situation.
>
> When did any politician take responsibility?
>
> You are a Labour Party member. I don't recall anyone from the Labour Party taking responsibility for the most serious fuck-up in my life, the Iraq War.
>
> There, lies were told to the British people by those at the top of the Labour Party, which resulted in a squalid, adventurist war, serious loss of life and instability in Iraq for years to come.
>
> And you whinge about Farage. Stop your whinging & faux outrage, and look at your own party and its actions.
That is a weak response, you’re as bad as those lefties still banging on about Thatcher. The onus is on those that want Brexit to come up with an actionable plan.
However what about this scenario?
New Tory PM, hopefully not Boris but certainly a Brexiteer tells Brussels it is either No Backstop or NO Deal. No Backstop has carried already in the HoC with May as PM.
He (since I reckon it will be a he) also tells the HoC to feck off with a Cooper II because he intends to ignore it. He tells the HoC and the Dishonourable Members they have 2 options, No Deal if the EU doesn't agree to No Backstop or a GE. He is of course calling Labour's bluff because they have been calling for a GE since 2017
Farage and the entire Brexit Party loves what the new PM is saying and indicates they will stand in the GE only in marginal seats where they could help the Tories win by splitting the Labour vote. The Tories in turn have no problem ensuring the Dominic Grieves and Oliver Letwins of this world leave Parliament and do not stand as the official Tory candidate because their associations either have or have threatened to deselect them as per Nick Boles. The Tory Party goes into the GE on a solid Brexit at all costs manifesto then all the cash saved goes into schools, housing, NHS etc
Tories lose a handful of soft seats to the LibDems in the south and scoop up dozens of Brexit supporting Labour seats in the Midlands and North. New PM has his mandate and Brexit proceeds without the backstop because the EU shits itself given that by October, Italy is going tits up, Germany is on the point of recession and Trump is doing his best to win a battle with China over economics which he can never win.
Have a lovely day everyone. I am looking forward to the Brexit Party winning 1 and possibly even 2 seats in Scotland on Thursday with Tory and Labour both possibly failing to win any. Either 3 SNP 2Brexit 1LibDem or 3 SNP, 1 Brexit, 1 LibDem and 1 among Tory/Lab/Green
For the record this life long Tory has voted for the Brexit Party. By a week on Monday we should have a gay, black 40 something businessman as a Scottish MEP given that he is No 1 on the Brexit party list in Scotland
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > The Brexit movement inside and outside parliament simply couldn’t decide what it wanted. You need look no further for the cause.
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit movement has never been in control of the process.
>
> >
>
> > Not yet, anyway.
>
>
>
> It has been in control since 2016. It’s just existed in a passive aggressive mode simultaneously blaming the establishment and looking for it to some up with solutions.
>
>
>
> There is no coherent actionable plan from Leavers. None whatsoever. Just complaints.
>
> Remainers dominate parliament.
>
> At no point have a great many within it, or in the country at large ever been willing to accept the result.
>
> This was clearly evidenced by the nonsense of e-petitions started within 24 hours of the remainer defeat. The hatchet job on Leadsom to install the hapless May was Tory remainerism in action.
>
> Since then we've had this constant 'what's the plan?' knowing full well that parliament would never deliver on any of them because it is full of remainers.
>
> It is fairly obvious that the existing parliament needs to be turfed out and replaced with an executive genuinely committed to delivery.
>
> Clean break Brexit is perfectly fine.
Do all Leavers back your so called clean Brexit or is it just another unicorn?
London liberal Remain is not the same as Scottish, Irish, Welsh nationalist remain, but let us leave the UK.
I should that she neither knows nor cares to know anything about British politics. She thought Andrew Neil was the PM at one stage.
Now Coalition 47 Labor 31 Greens 1 Others 4
> It has only had to be called WTO Brexit as a reminder that there will continue to be trade, and rules that govern it, because of the deliberately misleading language constantly used by Remainers about 'cutting ourselves off', as if we have to be in the EU to continue trading with the continent.
>
> In order to have a preferential relationship with the continent, we need to have a preferential relationship with the EU.
>
> I don't want a preferential relationship with them. I would expect reciprocal low, or no tariffs because it would benefit both parties, but if it didn't happen it would be no cause for anguish. The clothes I'm wearing are mostly from India. The phone I'm on is Japanese (goodness knows where its actually made but its outside the EU). Find a good product, market it well, offer it at the right price. That's how to prosper. Needing to be part of a vast bureaucracy in order to get a few pennies off a pound of butter is utterly absurd.
A key questions is would a WTO Brexit include an approx £20bn divorce payment?
If this is not allowed expectations of reciprocal low tariffs are unicorns.
If this is allowed then just accept the WA and move onto negotiating the future relationship part. Our exact relationship for a couple of years transition is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
> Coalition now up to 40 Labor on 28 and 3 Others as almost half the results from Australia now in
>
> Where are you getting this information from?
ABC news have live election night coverage here
https://www.abc.net.au/news/newschannel/
WTO - My preferred Brexit. I think should be right out, and be very circumspect and wise about joining anything. In the midst of leaving is no time to be signing up to goodness knows what.
No Deal - don't want it but wouldn't be as terrible as fantasised about, and should have remained very much on the table as an option in the negotiations
May's deal - not ideal but it was Brexit and would have liked it passed rather than the current mess.
> .> You and others are making the mistake of playing the man, not the ball. Of course Farage is a flawed instrument. He's a liar, a dissembler, a hypocrite, a politican for god's sake. But this message resonates. Despite the messenger. Our political class are playing with fire.
>
> Leavers are playing with fire by questioning our democracy, when it is their failure to come up with an actionable plan.
>
>
I don't buy the "it's all leaver's fault" thing. It's an abject failure on the part of the 650 tossers in the Commons that has bought us to this crisis.
You can blame the likes of Farage and the bloke from Wetherspoons, but they ain't the ones who can actually do anything apart from rant from the sidelines. Obviously they can shape opinion but can't implement it.
As much as it pains me, I don't even blame the likes of Blair, Adonis or Campbell on the other side. It's not even Gina Miller's problem.
Westminster is the only place that can solve it but they dropped the ball from the moment Cameron called the referendum. No real case made for why we should remain, a crap campaign, even with the 9 million quids worth of recycling they produced. Now it's just descended into name calling and social media rants.
There has been no leadership from any of them, just infighting and manoeuvring for political gain, the main parties terrified of upsetting their core vote, even though they don't really know what their core vote is anymore.