Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'.
How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
> If we’d left the EU on time a couple of months ago, Farage would most likely disappeared back to his radio show and that would have been that.
>
> He’s only back because we’re still in the EU and having these elections.
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The level of planning behind their operation suggests otherwise. This wasn't just dependent on the extension, even if he's taking full advantage of the elections.
There’s certainly an awful lot of planning gone into the Brexit Party campaign, it’s seriously well done. It will be interesting to find out who’s been doing the work, because every other party will want to recruit them for the next election campaign.
I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
> @algarkirk said: > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns? > > Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'. > > How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
You could equally say the same for Labour as to why it picked Healey over Foot or Ed Miliband over David Miliband or let Kinnock fight 2 elections
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds. > > > The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned. > > > Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality? > > > > > > > Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore > > It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds. > > > The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned. > > > Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality? > > > > > > > Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore > > It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
> @Stark_Dawning said: > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
I do not think that Theresa May is able to resolve the predicament that we find ourselves in. So her departure is a necessary precondition to improving our situation.
A heavy burden of responsibility therefore lies on the shoulders of Conservative Party MPs and members to choose the individual best able to resolve the present impasse.
I do hope that they spend more time with their conscience than with the entrails of the latest opinion poll.
> @Sandpit said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > > > > If we’d left the EU on time a couple of months ago, Farage would most likely disappeared back to his radio show and that would have been that. > > > > > > He’s only back because we’re still in the EU and having these elections. > > ------- > > > > The level of planning behind their operation suggests otherwise. This wasn't just dependent on the extension, even if he's taking full advantage of the elections. > > There’s certainly an awful lot of planning gone into the Brexit Party campaign, it’s seriously well done. It will be interesting to find out who’s been doing the work, because every other party will want to recruit them for the next election campaign. > > I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
They have also heeded the lessons of the ref. Shipman detailed in his book how the top agencies in London would not touch the Vote Leave campaign with a bargepole.
> I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
I would be surprised if they became organised any later than Chequers.
Leaflet update: Received one from the EDL, I mean English Democrats. This bunch of Fascists would appear to want a hard border on the Tweed and another on the Severn.
> @algarkirk said: > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns? > > Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'. > > How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
I'm going to have to steal that quote. It is absolutely brilliant.
Looking at the Yorkshire fixture list they don't appear to play in Yorkshire at a weekend between Sunday 21 April and Sunday 30 June.
And the grand total of cricket Yorkshire play in Yorkshire on a weekend amounts to, I think, four days of county championship, a single one day game and two twenty20s.
That's in a season which is nearly six months long.
Am I alone in thinking those running the game are not encouraging people to go and watch ?
> Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds.
>
> The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned.
>
> Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality?
>
How do you get to the low paid workforce ?
I don't know: it's a conspiracy theory. Any attempt by me to fill in the blanks would convert it from a conspiracy theory to a coherent narrative, which only causes problems in terms of nitpicking, continuity and resolution. See series 8 of GoT for an example. By keeping it in its current state it acts as an intellectual tool to explain behaviours that might otherwise be inexplicable. Think of it as stimulating debate in the marketplace of ideas.
Perhaps a better term for it would be "parable". IIRC Jesus Christ did not offer a watertight definition of peacemakers nor the meek, nor the Earth that he promised they would inherit.
Looking back at the paragraph I have just written, I feel I must reassure you I am not taking the piss at this point. I am this pretentious in real life...
Looking at the Yorkshire fixture list they don't appear to play in Yorkshire at a weekend between Sunday 21 April and Sunday 30 June.
And the grand total of cricket Yorkshire play in Yorkshire on a weekend amounts to, I think, four days of county championship, a single one day game and two twenty20s.
That's in a season which is nearly six months long.
Am I alone in thinking those running the game are not encouraging people to go and watch ?
As a YCCC member it is a world cup year so they aren't allowed/don't want to clash with that.
They and a lot of counties prefer to play their T20 matches on a Friday night, which are always sold out.
Plus they have a biggie this year, an Ashes Test match during the bank holiday weekend, which I'm attending.
> > Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds.
>
> > The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned.
>
> > Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality?
>
> >
>
>
>
> Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore
>
> It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
Visa refused?
Sad as it might sound, I have never applied for a visa in my life. I travelled to Yugoslavia once when it still existed and the customs guard on the train stamped something in my passport, but I doubt that meets your definition. I can however get into the States, so I assume I pass the various checks.
If Boris does make it to the final two I might vote for him.
I think he's one of the few Tory MPs who would actually revoke Article 50.
History has shown Boris will do what is best for him, and before the referendum he talked about voting Leave to get a better deal from the EU so we'd stay.
This does feel a little bit like your threat to vote Leave
If Boris does make it to the final two I might vote for him.
I think he's one of the few Tory MPs who would actually revoke Article 50.
History has shown Boris will do what is best for him, and before the referendum he talked about voting Leave to get a better deal from the EU so we'd stay.
This does feel a little bit like your threat to vote Leave
> @HYUFD said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @solarflare said: > > > Bojo's appeal appears to be that we currently have a cold robotic incompetent as PM, so we might as well have a charming buffoonish incompetent as PM instead. > > > > The current Tory leader blew a 25% poll lead to lose their majority while Johnson won Labour London twice. Much as I think he would make an awful PM the attraction is rather obvious, even if you can argue that he is well past his electoral peak. > > Exactly and 9/10 the more charismatic candidate wins the general election and Boris has charisma in spades. You have to go back to 1992 when John Major was Tory leader for that not to be the case and before that to Heath in 1970 and before that to Attlee in 1945 and 1950
Surely Corbyn is slightly more charismatic than May?
> @initforthemoney said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @solarflare said: > > > > Bojo's appeal appears to be that we currently have a cold robotic incompetent as PM, so we might as well have a charming buffoonish incompetent as PM instead. > > > > > > The current Tory leader blew a 25% poll lead to lose their majority while Johnson won Labour London twice. Much as I think he would make an awful PM the attraction is rather obvious, even if you can argue that he is well past his electoral peak. > > > > Exactly and 9/10 the more charismatic candidate wins the general election and Boris has charisma in spades. You have to go back to 1992 when John Major was Tory leader for that not to be the case and before that to Heath in 1970 and before that to Attlee in 1945 and 1950 > > Surely Corbyn is slightly more charismatic than May?
May lost her majority and failed to win the general election, she just scraped enough seats to hold onto power with the DUP so that does not really undermine the point
If Boris does make it to the final two I might vote for him.
I think he's one of the few Tory MPs who would actually revoke Article 50.
History has shown Boris will do what is best for him, and before the referendum he talked about voting Leave to get a better deal from the EU so we'd stay.
This does feel a little bit like your threat to vote Leave
> @Quincel said: > [All since local elections] > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1 > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0 > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7 > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6 > > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > Here's a question for PB cricket fans. > > > > Looking at the Yorkshire fixture list they don't appear to play in Yorkshire at a weekend between Sunday 21 April and Sunday 30 June. > > > > And the grand total of cricket Yorkshire play in Yorkshire on a weekend amounts to, I think, four days of county championship, a single one day game and two twenty20s. > > > > That's in a season which is nearly six months long. > > > > Am I alone in thinking those running the game are not encouraging people to go and watch ? > > As a YCCC member it is a world cup year so they aren't allowed/don't want to clash with that. > > They and a lot of counties prefer to play their T20 matches on a Friday night, which are always sold out. > > Plus they have a biggie this year, an Ashes Test match during the bank holiday weekend, which I'm attending.
Back in the old days they had TVs in the bars at Headingley.
I've watched football play-offs, Lions rugby, Open golf and Wimbledon finals while at the ground.
Now perhaps the target demographic isn't people who work but games taking place at a weekend would be more convenient for those who do.
> @isam said: > [All since local elections] > > > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1 > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0 > > > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7 > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6 > > > > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so? > > My portfolio on the current political markets is mind boggingly bad, and it includes being against BXP in these here Euros
I do think enough pollsters have it close enough that their sub 1/10 odds are too much, so am the same. I suspect I'll lose some money there, but at those odds the reward is worth the risk.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > [All since local elections] > > > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1 > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0 > > > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7 > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6 > > > > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so? > > The Lib Dems have momentum on their side.
A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
Labour: -1, No Change, -5 Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
> @Quincel said: > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are: > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5 > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds? > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are: > > > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5 > > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change > > > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds? > > > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now? > > Ok. £50?
Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top!
> @nico67 said: > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range . > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems . > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling . > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending. > >
BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
> @Quincel said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Quincel said: > > > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are: > > > > > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5 > > > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change > > > > > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds? > > > > > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now? > > > > Ok. £50? > > Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top!
Sure. Can we make it void if Corbyn backs a second referendum before polling day?
> @Quincel said: > > @nico67 said: > > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range . > > > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems . > > > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling . > > > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending. > > > > > > BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
The average of the last 6 polls has them over 30 . I’d be shocked if they didn’t poll at least 30% . The issues seems to be how much churn is going on between Labour to the Lib Dems and Green.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are: > > > > > > > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5 > > > > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change > > > > > > > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds? > > > > > > > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now? > > > > > > Ok. £50? > > > > Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top! > > Sure. Can we make it void if Corbyn backs a second referendum before polling day?
Agreed, so long as his announcement is substantially different from current policy (eg a confirmatory vote in all cases). Good luck.
> @nico67 said: > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range . > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems . > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling . > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending. > >
I think that is fair comment. The public are febrile at the moment as far as politics is concerned and I think small events could have a disproportionate effect on sentiment and votes.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > [All since local elections] > > > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1 > > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0 > > > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7 > > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6 > > > > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so? > > The Lib Dems have momentum on their side.
Not entirely clear. The last Comres poll showed the LibDems losing a point.
This made me laugh out loud, from a piece about Ken Loach's latest political film:
"Sorry We Missed You has received almost universal praise since its festival debut on Thursday evening, with both the Guardian and the Independent awarding the film five stars."
On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> @algarkirk said: > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns? > > Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'. > > How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
The party chose IDS over Clarke because Clarke would have led enough Tory Europhiles into the lobbies at crucial moments for Blair to get the UK into the Euro, with the resulting disaster we now know that would have been. The grassroots chose a further half decade in the wilderness over the potential permanent extinction of the UK as a nation-state.
As to why those were the last two choices standing, thereby hangs a tale.
> @geoffw said: > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
Boris has already voted for the WA, if the Commons does not vote for it next time it will be MPs voting for WTO terms unless they revoke in October as Macron will likely veto further extension
> @geoffw said: > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> @nico67 said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range . > > > > > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems . > > > > > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling . > > > > > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending. > > > > > > > > > > BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad. > > The average of the last 6 polls has them over 30 . I’d be shocked if they didn’t poll at least 30% . The issues seems to be how much churn is going on between Labour to the Lib Dems and Green. > > I think today’s news will help Labour .
Very interesting. Turnout is so hard to work out. 35-50%
> On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
>
> You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> @Stark_Dawning said: > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
------------------ This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices.
Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening.
> If Boris is leader there’s no role for Farage and no oxygen. If it was someone like Raab it could work with Farage having an Il Duce type role. I’m not sure Farage is ready for no oxygen
-------
It sounds very complacent to think that any potential Tory leader would be in a position to starve Farage of oxygen.
If you didn’t read the track, I was questioning why Farage would allow Boris to join TBP, let alone become *it’s* leader
He’s a very similar animal to Farage and would be competition in the way no other ukip leaders have been
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @geoffw said: > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > Then start preparing for No Deal....
Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > > If we’d left the EU on time a couple of months ago, Farage would most likely disappeared back to his radio show and that would have been that. > > > > He’s only back because we’re still in the EU and having these elections. > ------- > > The level of planning behind their operation suggests otherwise. This wasn't just dependent on the extension, even if he's taking full advantage of the elections. >
It could not possibly have been as effective without the fact of the elections. Many people who are fine with softish brexits are likely voting for him because of the obvious fact that we are not leaving and it seems obvious parliament will never agree to do so (given those who push for a confirmatory vote, on anything, are pretty clear on the whole that they would campaign to remain). Even with the many people who said they hated the WA, it is surely hard to have the masses so righetously wound up by an imperfect leaving transition and further negotiations. Doesn't exactly get the blood pumping.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Can you spot the trend here? > > > > > > https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498 > > > > > > Yes, it is lay the long term favourite > > > > Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win. > > > > > > If it was MPs alone Boris certainly wouldn't.
Was Clarke really favourite in 97? Portillo was the long term fave but lost his seat. I seem to recall Hague being favourite for most of the contest once he broke his pact with Howard
Wow - the Tory leadership candidates of 1997 seemed lightweight but were stellar compared to the current crop.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds.
> The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned.
> Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality?
>
Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore
It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
Move to the Summer Country. Life moves slower there
> @ydoethur said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Can you spot the trend here? > > > > > > https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498 > > > > > > > > Yes, it is lay the long term favourite > > > > Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win. > > Even if you extend it back to before MPs got a say, the trend is still striking: > > 1963 Butler (Home) > 1957 Butler (Macmillan) > 1955 Eden (Eden) > 1940 Halifax (Churchill) > 1937 N Chamberlain (N Chamberlain) > 1923 Curzon (Baldwin) > 1921 A Chamberlain (A Chamberlain) > 1911 A Chamberlain (Law) > 1902 Balfour (Balfour) > 1881 Northcote (Salisbury) > 1868 15th Earl of Derby (Disraeli) > 1846 14th Earl of Derby (14th Earl of Derby) > > Favourites do not prosper. > > The next most amazing thing about that list is that only one favourite to be leader has ever won an overall majority at an election - Eden in 1955.
Butler I suspect would have won in 1959, maybe even 1964 too. Curzon and Northcote would also likely have won some general elections.
However none of the above have faced the problem the Tories currently have where a party to their right is ahead of them in at least 1 GE poll as the Tories face with the Brexit Party. If the Tories do not take a risk on a colourful favourite this time and pick a dull conformist they risk coming third behind Farage and Corbyn
> @kle4 said: > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns? > > ------------------ > This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices. > > Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening.
I suspect the MPs are reassured by their own collective self knowledge that, if it came to it, parliament would revoke rather than go to no deal. That may indeed be where we are headed.
> @Benpointer said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @geoffw said: > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > > > Then start preparing for No Deal.... > > Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
--------------------------------- Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it.
IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed.
> @IanB2 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Stark_Dawning said: > > > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns? > > > > ------------------ > > This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices. > > > > Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening. > > I suspect the MPs are reassured by their own collective self knowledge that, if it came to it, parliament would revoke rather than go to no deal. That may indeed be where we are headed.
-------------------------------- It might take another extension period, but that could well be so. It is the sensible conclusion to the argument that leaving in any form is unacceptable, and when, for instance, Labour are getting closer and closer to saying a new vote is needed even if their own deal were on the table (I know Corbyn is not quite there yet) and they would still vote to remain, then the question becomes if you think leaving is that bad why even risk that the public might make the wrong choice again.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @geoffw said: > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > Then start preparing for No Deal....
Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
> @solarflare said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @geoffw said: > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > > > Then start preparing for No Deal.... > > Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait... ---------------------------------- I'd have to find out what a gasket is just so I could blow it, if that happened.
> @kle4 said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > @geoffw said: > > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > > > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > > > > > Then start preparing for No Deal.... > > > > Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote? > > --------------------------------- > Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it. > > IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed.
> @Benpointer said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > @geoffw said: > > > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > > > > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > > > > > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > > > > > > > Then start preparing for No Deal.... > > > > > > Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote? > > > > --------------------------------- > > Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it. > > > > IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed. > > -------------------------------- > > Yes, fair enough, I suspect you are right.
----------- I sometimes suspect the same thing, but the moment quickly passes.
I suppose how many residual Tory voters, furious over Brexit but content that the party they actually support, the Brexit Party, is going to come top, are willing to lend their old party a vote to keep the fight on for third place?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Thatcher stopped Heseltine becoming leader in favour of Major. Wonder if Theresa has a favoured successor. > > Used to be Gavin Williamson probably Hunt now or Brokenshire
I should imagine May's support would be the kiss of death given the splintering of the tory party. Somebody whose political judgement is so appalling (5G, Brexit, Chinese nuclear power stations) should keep their thoughts to themselves on successors.
> @solarflare said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @geoffw said: > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did. > > > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms? > > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort. > > > > Then start preparing for No Deal.... > > Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
His first port of call would be to do a deal with Macron, so that Macron canned any further extensions beyond 31st October. "2019 EU departure. That's how you do it, Theresa....."
> > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> >
> > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
>
> I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
>
> Then start preparing for No Deal....
Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
We could bet on how long it would take for the first cries of betrayal to be heard, like the first spring cuckoo.
> > > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range .
> > >
> > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
> > >
> > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
> > >
> > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
>
> The average of the last 6 polls has them over 30 . I’d be shocked if they didn’t poll at least 30% . The issues seems to be how much churn is going on between Labour to the Lib Dems and Green.
>
> I think today’s news will help Labour .
Very interesting. Turnout is so hard to work out. 35-50%
Comments
How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
> Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
>
> Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'.
>
> How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
You could equally say the same for Labour as to why it picked Healey over Foot or Ed Miliband over David Miliband or let Kinnock fight 2 elections
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds.
>
> > The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned.
>
> > Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality?
>
> >
>
>
>
> Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore
>
> It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
No, people move to Spain for that
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Time for another airing of my conspiracy theory. A group of people have redirected their patriotism to the Anglosphere. Relieved of the obligation to care about the people of the United Kingdom, they initiate a plan to sever the UK from the EU, devalue the currency and convert its population into a highly educated low-paid workforce with little mobility and less rights. Once achieved, they will use the UK as a base for a European Singapore, with the population kept happy with a diet of hatreds.
>
> > The utility of an idea is not in its truth or falsehood, it's it's ability to use it to make predictions. Under this conspiracy theory a leader will emerge to carry out this plan, and any wreckage he might cause is at best irrelevant, at worst planned.
>
> > Now. If this conspiracy theory is true...how would you tell the difference between it and the current reality?
>
> >
>
>
>
> Singapore has the second highest gdp per capita in Asia after Qatar (which is full of oil) and Singapore also tops the current PISA education rankings, there are worse fates than being Singapore
>
> It wasn't the kind of country I was planning to grow old and die in...
Visa refused?
> Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
I do not think that Theresa May is able to resolve the predicament that we find ourselves in. So her departure is a necessary precondition to improving our situation.
A heavy burden of responsibility therefore lies on the shoulders of Conservative Party MPs and members to choose the individual best able to resolve the present impasse.
I do hope that they spend more time with their conscience than with the entrails of the latest opinion poll.
> > @Sandpit said:
>
> >
>
> > If we’d left the EU on time a couple of months ago, Farage would most likely disappeared back to his radio show and that would have been that.
>
> >
>
> > He’s only back because we’re still in the EU and having these elections.
>
> -------
>
>
>
> The level of planning behind their operation suggests otherwise. This wasn't just dependent on the extension, even if he's taking full advantage of the elections.
>
> There’s certainly an awful lot of planning gone into the Brexit Party campaign, it’s seriously well done. It will be interesting to find out who’s been doing the work, because every other party will want to recruit them for the next election campaign.
>
> I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
They have also heeded the lessons of the ref. Shipman detailed in his book how the top agencies in London would not touch the Vote Leave campaign with a bargepole.
> I reckon they probably started thinking about it back when the ‘deal’ was done in November, and it became quickly clear that there might be problems getting it through Parliament. I guess a couple of people could have been on it from even before then, funded by Farage’s MEP office or Arron Banks.
I would be surprised if they became organised any later than Chequers.
So they do have some good ideas*
*Joke
> Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
>
> Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'.
>
> How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
I'm going to have to steal that quote. It is absolutely brilliant.
Looking at the Yorkshire fixture list they don't appear to play in Yorkshire at a weekend between Sunday 21 April and Sunday 30 June.
And the grand total of cricket Yorkshire play in Yorkshire on a weekend amounts to, I think, four days of county championship, a single one day game and two twenty20s.
That's in a season which is nearly six months long.
Am I alone in thinking those running the game are not encouraging people to go and watch ?
Perhaps a better term for it would be "parable". IIRC Jesus Christ did not offer a watertight definition of peacemakers nor the meek, nor the Earth that he promised they would inherit.
Looking back at the paragraph I have just written, I feel I must reassure you I am not taking the piss at this point. I am this pretentious in real life...
They and a lot of counties prefer to play their T20 matches on a Friday night, which are always sold out.
Plus they have a biggie this year, an Ashes Test match during the bank holiday weekend, which I'm attending.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498
Yes, it is lay the long term favourite
BP win 7 of the 11 regions and are within two points of Labour in NE and NW.
> Can you spot the trend here?
>
> https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498
>
> Yes, it is lay the long term favourite
Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win.
Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1
Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0
Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7
Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6
Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @solarflare said:
> > > Bojo's appeal appears to be that we currently have a cold robotic incompetent as PM, so we might as well have a charming buffoonish incompetent as PM instead.
> >
> > The current Tory leader blew a 25% poll lead to lose their majority while Johnson won Labour London twice. Much as I think he would make an awful PM the attraction is rather obvious, even if you can argue that he is well past his electoral peak.
>
> Exactly and 9/10 the more charismatic candidate wins the general election and Boris has charisma in spades. You have to go back to 1992 when John Major was Tory leader for that not to be the case and before that to Heath in 1970 and before that to Attlee in 1945 and 1950
Surely Corbyn is slightly more charismatic than May?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @solarflare said:
> > > > Bojo's appeal appears to be that we currently have a cold robotic incompetent as PM, so we might as well have a charming buffoonish incompetent as PM instead.
> > >
> > > The current Tory leader blew a 25% poll lead to lose their majority while Johnson won Labour London twice. Much as I think he would make an awful PM the attraction is rather obvious, even if you can argue that he is well past his electoral peak.
> >
> > Exactly and 9/10 the more charismatic candidate wins the general election and Boris has charisma in spades. You have to go back to 1992 when John Major was Tory leader for that not to be the case and before that to Heath in 1970 and before that to Attlee in 1945 and 1950
>
> Surely Corbyn is slightly more charismatic than May?
May lost her majority and failed to win the general election, she just scraped enough seats to hold onto power with the DUP so that does not really undermine the point
> [All since local elections]
>
> Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1
> Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0
>
> Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7
> Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6
>
> Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
The Lib Dems have momentum on their side.
> Here's a question for PB cricket fans.
>
>
>
> Looking at the Yorkshire fixture list they don't appear to play in Yorkshire at a weekend between Sunday 21 April and Sunday 30 June.
>
>
>
> And the grand total of cricket Yorkshire play in Yorkshire on a weekend amounts to, I think, four days of county championship, a single one day game and two twenty20s.
>
>
>
> That's in a season which is nearly six months long.
>
>
>
> Am I alone in thinking those running the game are not encouraging people to go and watch ?
>
> As a YCCC member it is a world cup year so they aren't allowed/don't want to clash with that.
>
> They and a lot of counties prefer to play their T20 matches on a Friday night, which are always sold out.
>
> Plus they have a biggie this year, an Ashes Test match during the bank holiday weekend, which I'm attending.
Back in the old days they had TVs in the bars at Headingley.
I've watched football play-offs, Lions rugby, Open golf and Wimbledon finals while at the ground.
Now perhaps the target demographic isn't people who work but games taking place at a weekend would be more convenient for those who do.
> [All since local elections]
>
>
>
> Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1
>
> Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0
>
>
>
> Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7
>
> Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6
>
>
>
> Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
>
> My portfolio on the current political markets is mind boggingly bad, and it includes being against BXP in these here Euros
I do think enough pollsters have it close enough that their sub 1/10 odds are too much, so am the same. I suspect I'll lose some money there, but at those odds the reward is worth the risk.
> > @Quincel said:
> > [All since local elections]
> >
> > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1
> > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0
> >
> > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7
> > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6
> >
> > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
>
> The Lib Dems have momentum on their side.
A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
Labour: -1, No Change, -5
Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1129443532014530565
> A platform for Cuk but not Farage. No bias of course.
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1129443532014530565
Farage was on Marr last week, wasn't he? They can't have everyone every time, and he was on QT last week too.
https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1129488789309722624?s=21
> A platform for Cuk but not Farage. No bias of course.
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1129443532014530565
Hey, the 1% have as much right to representation as you and I
> A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
>
> Labour: -1, No Change, -5
> Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
>
> Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
>
> Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
Ok. £50?
It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
> > @Quincel said:
> > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
> >
> > Labour: -1, No Change, -5
> > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
> >
> > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
> >
> > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
>
> Ok. £50?
Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top!
> The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range .
>
> It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
>
> And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
>
> May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
>
>
BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
> > >
> > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5
> > > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
> > >
> > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
> > >
> > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
> >
> > Ok. £50?
>
> Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top!
Sure. Can we make it void if Corbyn backs a second referendum before polling day?
> > @nico67 said:
> > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range .
> >
> > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
> >
> > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
> >
> > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
> >
> >
>
> BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
The average of the last 6 polls has them over 30 . I’d be shocked if they didn’t poll at least 30% . The issues seems to be how much churn is going on between Labour to the Lib Dems and Green.
I think today’s news will help Labour .
> A platform for Cuk but not Farage. No bias of course.
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1129443532014530565
He’s already had his turn. He got upset because the bad man asked him questions he didn’t want to answer.
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > A little, but there are 3 pollsters who have polled twice since the Locals (Yougov, Comres, Opinum). Their changes for the last two polls (Comres have polled three times) are:
> > > >
> > > > Labour: -1, No Change, -5
> > > > Lib Dem: +1, -1, No change
> > > >
> > > > Does that really justify the gap between the polls and odds?
> > > >
> > > > Let's put it this way, I'd take evens on Labour coming 2nd. In fact, I'd happily make a private bet with you right now?
> > >
> > > Ok. £50?
> >
> > Deal, if I can just rephrase it as Lab beating the LDs. Realise my wording could be interpreted as losing if Labour come top!
>
> Sure. Can we make it void if Corbyn backs a second referendum before polling day?
Agreed, so long as his announcement is substantially different from current policy (eg a confirmatory vote in all cases). Good luck.
> The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range .
>
> It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
>
> And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
>
> May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
>
>
I think that is fair comment. The public are febrile at the moment as far as politics is concerned and I think small events could have a disproportionate effect on sentiment and votes.
> > @Quincel said:
> > [All since local elections]
> >
> > Number of EU polls with LDs within 10% of leading: 1
> > Number of EU polls with LDs within 5% of leading: 0
> >
> > Number of EU polls with Labour within 10% of leading: 7
> > Number of EU polls with Labour within 5% of leading: 6
> >
> > Why are the odds of LDs winning almost as short as Labour doing so?
>
> The Lib Dems have momentum on their side.
Not entirely clear. The last Comres poll showed the LibDems losing a point.
"Sorry We Missed You has received almost universal praise since its festival debut on Thursday evening, with both the Guardian and the Independent awarding the film five stars."
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/may/17/ken-loach-blair-miliband-sorry-we-missed-you-cannes-gig-economy
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > Can you spot the trend here?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498
> >
> > Yes, it is lay the long term favourite
>
> Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win.
>
>
If it was MPs alone Boris certainly wouldn't.
> Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
>
> Robert Conquest: 'The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any.... organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies'.
>
> How else would explain the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke for leader? Or is acting as it is now? Or kept TM after the GE of 2017? Or...lots of things.
The party chose IDS over Clarke because Clarke would have led enough Tory Europhiles into the lobbies at crucial moments for Blair to get the UK into the Euro, with the resulting disaster we now know that would have been. The grassroots chose a further half decade in the wilderness over the potential permanent extinction of the UK as a nation-state.
As to why those were the last two choices standing, thereby hangs a tale.
> On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
>
> You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
Boris has already voted for the WA, if the Commons does not vote for it next time it will be MPs voting for WTO terms unless they revoke in October as Macron will likely veto further extension
> On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
>
> You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
Then start preparing for No Deal....
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > The issue at the moment isn’t the BP poll ratings . A range of 30 to 35 is well within a normal polling range .
> > >
> > > It’s the others that seem to be causing problems .
> > >
> > > And we don’t know what effect the last few days might have on the polling .
> > >
> > > May going in June , the media obsession with Johnson and the Tory Labour talks ending.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > BP have been on under 30% in 5 polls since the Locals, and over 30% in 5 polls since the locals. They range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, it is fairly broad.
>
> The average of the last 6 polls has them over 30 . I’d be shocked if they didn’t poll at least 30% . The issues seems to be how much churn is going on between Labour to the Lib Dems and Green.
>
> I think today’s news will help Labour .
Very interesting. Turnout is so hard to work out. 35-50%
> What has Rory done that makes 29% of Tory members hate him?
Been conspicuously and unforgivably reasonable.
> Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
------------------
This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices.
Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening.
He’s a very similar animal to Farage and would be competition in the way no other ukip leaders have been
> > @geoffw said:
> > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> >
> > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
>
> I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
>
> Then start preparing for No Deal....
Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
1963 Butler (Home)
1957 Butler (Macmillan)
1955 Eden (Eden)
1940 Halifax (Churchill)
1937 N Chamberlain (N Chamberlain)
1923 Curzon (Baldwin)
1921 A Chamberlain (A Chamberlain)
1911 A Chamberlain (Law)
1902 Balfour (Balfour)
1881 Northcote (Salisbury)
1868 15th Earl of Derby (Disraeli)
1846 14th Earl of Derby (14th Earl of Derby)
Favourites do not prosper.
The next most amazing thing about that list is that only one favourite to be leader has ever won an overall majority at an election - Eden in 1955.
> > @Sandpit said:
> >
> > If we’d left the EU on time a couple of months ago, Farage would most likely disappeared back to his radio show and that would have been that.
> >
> > He’s only back because we’re still in the EU and having these elections.
> -------
>
> The level of planning behind their operation suggests otherwise. This wasn't just dependent on the extension, even if he's taking full advantage of the elections.
>
It could not possibly have been as effective without the fact of the elections. Many people who are fine with softish brexits are likely voting for him because of the obvious fact that we are not leaving and it seems obvious parliament will never agree to do so (given those who push for a confirmatory vote, on anything, are pretty clear on the whole that they would campaign to remain). Even with the many people who said they hated the WA, it is surely hard to have the masses so righetously wound up by an imperfect leaving transition and further negotiations. Doesn't exactly get the blood pumping.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > Can you spot the trend here?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498
> > >
> > > Yes, it is lay the long term favourite
> >
> > Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win.
> >
> >
>
> If it was MPs alone Boris certainly wouldn't.
Was Clarke really favourite in 97? Portillo was the long term fave but lost his seat. I seem to recall Hague being favourite for most of the contest once he broke his pact with Howard
Wow - the Tory leadership candidates of 1997 seemed lightweight but were stellar compared to the current crop.
> On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
I've just agreed with Richard Navabi.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Can you spot the trend here?
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1129475768633962498
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Yes, it is lay the long term favourite
>
>
>
> Most of those were before members got a say, if it was MPs alone Hunt would probably win.
>
> Even if you extend it back to before MPs got a say, the trend is still striking:
>
> 1963 Butler (Home)
> 1957 Butler (Macmillan)
> 1955 Eden (Eden)
> 1940 Halifax (Churchill)
> 1937 N Chamberlain (N Chamberlain)
> 1923 Curzon (Baldwin)
> 1921 A Chamberlain (A Chamberlain)
> 1911 A Chamberlain (Law)
> 1902 Balfour (Balfour)
> 1881 Northcote (Salisbury)
> 1868 15th Earl of Derby (Disraeli)
> 1846 14th Earl of Derby (14th Earl of Derby)
>
> Favourites do not prosper.
>
> The next most amazing thing about that list is that only one favourite to be leader has ever won an overall majority at an election - Eden in 1955.
Butler I suspect would have won in 1959, maybe even 1964 too. Curzon and Northcote would also likely have won some general elections.
However none of the above have faced the problem the Tories currently have where a party to their right is ahead of them in at least 1 GE poll as the Tories face with the Brexit Party. If the Tories do not take a risk on a colourful favourite this time and pick a dull conformist they risk coming third behind Farage and Corbyn
> > @Stark_Dawning said:
> > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
>
> ------------------
> This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices.
>
> Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening.
I suspect the MPs are reassured by their own collective self knowledge that, if it came to it, parliament would revoke rather than go to no deal. That may indeed be where we are headed.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @geoffw said:
> > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> > >
> > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
> >
> > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> >
> > Then start preparing for No Deal....
>
> Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
---------------------------------
Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it.
IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Stark_Dawning said:
> > > Terrible isn’t it? We were given this Brexit extension to avert catastrophe, but within an instant we’re squandering it on the psychological analysis of Tory membership and Borisology. Aren’t there more pressing concerns?
> >
> > ------------------
> > This is why Macron was right when he tried to resist an extension as long as they came up with or longer. An extension doesn't help us make up our minds because we just keep faffing about with distractions, focusing on internal battles of the Tories and (to lesser extent) Labour, rather than actually face the hard choices.
> >
> > Even now the MPs seem to have no urgency, no fear that the EU might not extend (even if we regard is unlikely, to keep risking it is foolhardy unless one actively wants it), every event is taken as proof that the chosen path of the righteous, whatever that is, must be followed. It's deeply saddening.
>
> I suspect the MPs are reassured by their own collective self knowledge that, if it came to it, parliament would revoke rather than go to no deal. That may indeed be where we are headed.
--------------------------------
It might take another extension period, but that could well be so. It is the sensible conclusion to the argument that leaving in any form is unacceptable, and when, for instance, Labour are getting closer and closer to saying a new vote is needed even if their own deal were on the table (I know Corbyn is not quite there yet) and they would still vote to remain, then the question becomes if you think leaving is that bad why even risk that the public might make the wrong choice again.
> > @geoffw said:
> > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> >
> > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
>
> I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
>
> Then start preparing for No Deal....
Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @geoffw said:
> > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> > >
> > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
> >
> > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> >
> > Then start preparing for No Deal....
>
> Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
----------------------------------
I'd have to find out what a gasket is just so I could blow it, if that happened.
> Thatcher stopped Heseltine becoming leader in favour of Major. Wonder if Theresa has a favoured successor.
Thatcher stopped Hesteltine by resigning. I don't think May can really play that card. She could of course just find a way not to resign, as usual.
> Thatcher stopped Heseltine becoming leader in favour of Major. Wonder if Theresa has a favoured successor.
The Right Honourable Sir Anybody But-Boris.
Good, traditional Tory chap. Of the Oxfordshire But-Borises I believe. I think Charles may know the family
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > @geoffw said:
> > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> > > >
> > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
> > >
> > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> > >
> > > Then start preparing for No Deal....
> >
> > Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
>
> ---------------------------------
> Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it.
>
> IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed.
--------------------------------
Yes, fair enough, I suspect you are right.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > @geoffw said:
> > > > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> > > > >
> > > > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
> > > >
> > > > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> > > >
> > > > Then start preparing for No Deal....
> > >
> > > Wouldn't a new A50 notice require a fresh HoC vote?
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > Off the top of my head I do not see why it would require it, though it would be madness for a PM to do it when the HoC would not support it.
> >
> > IIRC the (very short) Act of 2017 isjust about granting the PM the power to notify to the EU our intention to leave. It is now law, so presumably the power remains in the PM's hands, it did not specity any future notifications were not allowed.
>
> --------------------------------
>
> Yes, fair enough, I suspect you are right.
-----------
I sometimes suspect the same thing, but the moment quickly passes.
> Thatcher stopped Heseltine becoming leader in favour of Major. Wonder if Theresa has a favoured successor.
Used to be Gavin Williamson probably Hunt now or Brokenshire
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129504691996508162
> ***Con surge klaxon***
>
Weird numbers.
> ***Con surge klaxon***
>
> https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129504691996508162
I suppose how many residual Tory voters, furious over Brexit but content that the party they actually support, the Brexit Party, is going to come top, are willing to lend their old party a vote to keep the fight on for third place?
Looks like the compressed timetable has led to BBC cramming in a load of stuff before the vote.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > Thatcher stopped Heseltine becoming leader in favour of Major. Wonder if Theresa has a favoured successor.
>
> Used to be Gavin Williamson probably Hunt now or Brokenshire
I should imagine May's support would be the kiss of death given the splintering of the tory party. Somebody whose political judgement is so appalling (5G, Brexit, Chinese nuclear power stations) should keep their thoughts to themselves on successors.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @geoffw said:
> > > On topic: Look on the bright side. If (God forbid) Boris ends up as PM, at least we'll be treated to the entertainment of seeing how he finesses the humiliation of coming back from Brussels and telling us that the backstop remains in place unchanged despite him shouting louder at Johnny Foreigner than Mrs May did.
> > >
> > > You don't think he'd dare to leave on WTO terms?
> >
> > I suspect Boris would revoke - then immediately submit a new Article 50 notice - so a new 2 year limit. Effectively erasing May's effort.
> >
> > Then start preparing for No Deal....
>
> Would be funny watching him tell everyone they could have proper Brexit...just yet another two years to wait...
His first port of call would be to do a deal with Macron, so that Macron canned any further extensions beyond 31st October. "2019 EU departure. That's how you do it, Theresa....."
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129506973773389824
More conservative figures than some others.
> And Westminster;
>
> https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129506973773389824
>
>
>
> More conservative figures than some others.
Rename TBP as UKIP and we're surprisingly close to the pre-2015 polls again. Funny given how much has happened since then.
The polls seem to be struggling with how to divide the 40-45% on the "centre right".
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129507783009800192
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129508829186744320
> ***Con surge klaxon***
>
> https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129504691996508162
+5, -2 - must be some strange rounding.....
Highest in 2004 = 38.5
Lowest in 1999 = 24.0
> Evening all
>
> The polls seem to be struggling with how to divide the 40-45% on the "centre right".
So much easier when they all voted for Blair!
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129472853928271877?s=21
European Parliament voting intention:
Brexit Party 30% (+20)
Labour 25% (-13)
Lib Dems 14% (+6)
Conservatives 13% (-10)
Change UK 6% (+2)
Greens 6% (+2)
UKIP 3% (-5)
10 – 13 May (change from 8 April)
https://hanburystrategycloud.filecloudonline.com/ui/core/index.html?mode=single&path=/SHARED/data/xicUHcc7jpv9OXje
The Survation though does highlight my previous thoughts .
The news of the last few days might change things.