> @AndyJS said: > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66).
> @The_Taxman said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful. > > I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66).
So you supported Blair walking around like a poodle to Bush. "Fetch the ball Balir." Bush used to say and Tone went running.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful. > > > > I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66). > > So you supported Blair walking around like a poodle to Bush. "Fetch the ball Balir." Bush used to say and Tone went running.
No I voted Tory in 1997, 2001and 2005 and I was opposed to the Iraq war. But he could lead there is no doubt about that....
Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
It is a bind. The membership will want to vote for a No Dealer. But a No Dealer would struggle to pass a QS. We may then get our referendum, in the guise of a GE. Most unsatisfactory.
There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
> @AndyJS said: > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
The Survation poll tonight is of voters as a whole (not even just Tories) and has Boris preferred to Gove 40% to 23% as next Tory leader and PM, Boris preferred to Hunt 38% to 28%, Boris preferred to Javid 37% to 28%, Boris preferred to Raab 40% to 23%, Boris preferred to Hancock 42% to 23% and Boris preferred to Rudd 41% to 27%.
32% think Boris is best placed to beat Tories, second placed Javid is miles behind on 11%.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html > > > > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)? > > There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
I have heard some words for no deal but "cataclysmic?" Do you remainers have some kind of competition?
No deal is a disruption to the economy while it adjusts to the new trading terms that may or may not cause a technical recession and then after 9 months or so the economy will grow at a decent rate and still be creating jobs.
> @HYUFD said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840 > > > > I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017..... > > Yes, Boris will beat Corbyn much to the annoyance of some of them
I thought PM May would lose her majority in 2017 before parliament was dissolved and I think that Boris would do even worse than May in any GE now even at peak honeymoon. People like me will never vote for Johnson and I doubt lifelong Labour voters will flock over to the Tories to replace people like me. 2017 showed the Tories could not win on this issue. Mind you knowing your style of comments I suspect you have been seduced by the Conservative/Brexit party pact. I actually think 2015 showed from a Conservative point of view a better electoral distribution of seats than any Conservative/UKIP/Brexit alliance...
> @The_Taxman said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html > > > > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)? > > There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
Good riddance, they can join CUK and see how they do
What's staggering is that Rory Stewart is being slaughtered.
Why? Because he has the temerity to defend May's deal.
And he is reasonable and thoughtful, doesn’t rant and rave, gives credit to those with differing views and generally doesn’t go round behaving as if he were auditioning for a part in a remake of Dad’s Army.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840 > > > > > > I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017..... > > > > Yes, Boris will beat Corbyn much to the annoyance of some of them > > I thought PM May would lose her majority in 2017 before parliament was dissolved and I think that Boris would do even worse than May in any GE now even at peak honeymoon. People like me will never vote for Johnson and I doubt lifelong Labour voters will flock over to the Tories to replace people like me. 2017 showed the Tories could not win on this issue. Mind you knowing your style of comments I suspect you have been seduced by the Conservative/Brexit party pact. I actually think 2015 showed from a Conservative point of view a better electoral distribution of seats than any Conservative/UKIP/Brexit alliance...
Trying to appease people like you will guarantee a Corbyn premiership as even more Tories will go to the Brexit Party than have already left.
In 2015 Cameron promised an EU referendum to get a majority, something he failed to achieve in 2010, the Tories problem now is they have failed to implement the result
"Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe.
Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis."
> @rottenborough said: > NYT: > > "Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say > The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe. > > Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis." >
What's staggering is that Rory Stewart is being slaughtered.
Why? Because he has the temerity to defend May's deal.
And he is reasonable and thoughtful, doesn’t rant and rave, gives credit to those with differing views and generally doesn’t go round behaving as if he were auditioning for a part in a remake of Dad’s Army.
> "Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say
> The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe.
>
> Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis."
>
Any comment from Corbyn?
The NY Times is a cabal of far right zionists intent on promoting fake news?
> > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
>
> There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
I have heard some words for no deal but "cataclysmic?" Do you remainers have some kind of competition?
No deal is a disruption to the economy while it adjusts to the new trading terms that may or may not cause a technical recession and then after 9 months or so the economy will grow at a decent rate and still be creating jobs.
That is what every economic forecast has said.
I love it how for some Brexiteers those economic forecasters who were wrong about what would happen to the economy after the Brexit vote are now to be treated as gurus when it comes to what will happen after a No Deal Brexit.
> @Cyclefree said: > OK, briefly on before I go back to work. > > > > What's staggering is that Rory Stewart is being slaughtered. > > > > Why? Because he has the temerity to defend May's deal. > > And he is reasonable and thoughtful, doesn’t rant and rave, gives credit to those with differing views and generally doesn’t go round behaving as if he were auditioning for a part in a remake of Dad’s Army.
Yes. Some of the praise for Stewart can be overdone, but it's a poor reflection on the wider political culture, as well as the Tory party specifically, that he is rated so badly by the membership.
'The poll found Tory General Election voting intention had dropped to just 21%, well behind Labour on 30% and only just ahead of the Brexit Party on 19% (Change UK surged to 5th place with a whole 6%). Again, Boris was the only contender to make Brexit Party supporters more likely to vote Tory.
Interestingly, the poll also found that voters would be less likely to vote Labour if they backed a second referendum in all circumstances, 37% said they would be less likely to vote Labour if they did, compared to only 32% who said it was more likely.'
> @Cyclefree said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html > > > > > > > > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)? > > > > > > There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office.. > > > > I have heard some words for no deal but "cataclysmic?" Do you remainers have some kind of competition? > > > > No deal is a disruption to the economy while it adjusts to the new trading terms that may or may not cause a technical recession and then after 9 months or so the economy will grow at a decent rate and still be creating jobs. > > > > That is what every economic forecast has said. > > I love it how for some Brexiteers those economic forecasters who were wrong about what would happen to the economy after the Brexit vote are now to be treated as gurus when it comes to what will happen after a No Deal Brexit.
I have never on here criticised the forecasters. I think the much criticised forecast by the treasury is basically on the ball. They just should have changed the sentence that said "after the vote" to "After we leave."
The people I criticise are the people that use terms like economic disaster, economic chaos, etc.
Below you are saying that Rory Stewart is thoughtful and respectful of his opponents. Perhaps you might want to take a leaf out of his book?
"You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?" Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
The original sin of Rory Stewart appears to be going on the media defending government policy without lying, abusing anyone, or making up some fantastical unicorny shit. Doing the job of a government MP of any Party up until very recently in other words.
> @ah009 said: > A reminder: > https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o > > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?" > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself...
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > A reminder: > > https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o > > > > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?" > > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again. > > To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself...
There is no obligation to vote for either; I won't.
> @Charles said: > A reminder: > > > > > > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?" > > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again. > > There’s an argument that you want a nasty piece of work to lead the country
> @ah009 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > A reminder: > > > https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o > > > > > > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?" > > > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again. > > > > To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself... > > There is no obligation to vote for either; I won't.
Well at the moment it is going to be one or the other, or Farage
> Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
>
> There’s an argument that you want a nasty piece of work to lead the country
Whom do you think I want to lead the country?
I meant “one wants” not you specifically
(There’s an old half remembered quote I can’t track down - something like “the Prime Minister is a man you don’t like appointed to do the things that you don’t want to do”)
Very similar to Survation: Brexit 30, Lab 24, Con 14, LD 12, Green 4, SNP 4, UKIP 3, Change 3.
That sort of result has been almost discounted now and I'm not sure it will be all that seismic. Farage will get his moment of glory. Corbyn will say we came well ahead of the Tories. The Tories will say it was May and we're getting rid of her, the LibDems will say wa-hey, it's a surge. Everyone else will change the subject.
Very similar to Survation: Brexit 30, Lab 24, Con 14, LD 12, Green 4, SNP 4, UKIP 3, Change 3.
That sort of result has been almost discounted now and I'm not sure it will be all that seismic. Farage will get his moment of glory. Corbyn will say we came well ahead of the Tories. The Tories will say it was May and we're getting rid of her, the LibDems will say wa-hey, it's a surge. Everyone else will change the subject.
No disrespect, but this kind of complacency about Farage is a disaster from main party people.
Wake up!
The toothpaste cannot be put back in the tube (to quote a PBer this afternoon).
> @rottenborough said: > This interview says more about Mair than Boris to be honest. Streets ahead of Marr.
I agree that Mair is highly effective. He comes across to me as very sharp. There are moments where he riffs immediately on what his interviewees say, including in this clip. Skilful, sensitive, and with an understated authority. I admire Mair greatly.
Twelve is a lot. Do you think it's realistic? Personally, I cannot see it. I could image two walking, though I would stake money on none if the odds were right.
Very similar to Survation: Brexit 30, Lab 24, Con 14, LD 12, Green 4, SNP 4, UKIP 3, Change 3.
That sort of result has been almost discounted now and I'm not sure it will be all that seismic. Farage will get his moment of glory. Corbyn will say we came well ahead of the Tories. The Tories will say it was May and we're getting rid of her, the LibDems will say wa-hey, it's a surge. Everyone else will change the subject.
Close but Shorten probably edges it but might require Independents.
However the 2PP in Australia does not always predict the winner, in 1998 Labor were on 53% in the final Newspoll and ended up with 51% but Howard won it, just, by winning in crucial marginals (Hawke did a similar thing in 1990). The final Newspoll has Labor on 51.5% and the Coalition on 48.5%.
> @ah009 said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1129422125029363713 > > > > If 12 Tory MPs give up the Tory Whip , it is far from clear that Boris would become PM with the Tories below 305 seats. > > Twelve is a lot. Do you think it's realistic? Personally, I cannot see it. I could image two walking, though I would stake money on none if the odds were right.
I think Tissue Price suggested there are rumours of 20 Tories resigning the Whip should Boris be elected.
I've been out drinking with a bunch of juniors tonight. Not a single one gives a single fuck about brexit or the election. The thing they were most interested in was when I was drunk ebofh to break out the company gold card. Needles to say I obliged fairly early.
> @MaxPB said: > I've been out drinking with a bunch of juniors tonight. Not a single one gives a single fuck about brexit or the election. The thing they were most interested in was when I was drunk ebofh to break out the company gold card. Needles to say I obliged fairly early.
Most people aren't into politics. It makes you wonder how the compulsory voting they have in Australia would work over here.
> @AndyJS said: > > @rottenborough said: > > NYT: > > > > "Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say > > The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe. > > > > Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis." > > > > Any comment from Corbyn?
I expect Corbyn would blame Venezuela's collapse on American sanctions which for one reason or another are rarely mentioned on pb.
Comments
> Wasn’t Farage on last week?
Some Brexit cultists won't be satisfied with anything less that a rambling 8-hour Venezuela-style dear-leader hagiographothon.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840
> Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline:
>
> https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840
I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017.....
That’s an astonishing difference .
> Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66).
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
>
> I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66).
So you supported Blair walking around like a poodle to Bush. "Fetch the ball Balir." Bush used to say and Tone went running.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
> >
> > I won't vote Tory if that arsehole is leader and I know others that would sit on their hands or look elsewhere if he did become Tory leader. He is simply not up to the job but to be fair the last three PMs have been useless. You have to go back to Blair for a reasonable leader and most of his strength came from his parliamentary hegemony (1997 Maj 179, 2001 Maj 165, 2005 Maj 66).
>
> So you supported Blair walking around like a poodle to Bush. "Fetch the ball Balir." Bush used to say and Tone went running.
No I voted Tory in 1997, 2001and 2005 and I was opposed to the Iraq war. But he could lead there is no doubt about that....
> Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM:
>
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
It is a bind. The membership will want to vote for a No Dealer. But a No Dealer would struggle to pass a QS.
We may then get our referendum, in the guise of a GE.
Most unsatisfactory.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840
>
> I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017.....
Yes, Boris will beat Corbyn much to the annoyance of some of them
> Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM:
>
>
>
>
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
>
> Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
What's staggering is that Rory Stewart is being slaughtered.
Why? Because he has the temerity to defend May's deal.
> Most of the country thinks Boris Johnson isn't leadership material, but the Tory grassroots seem to believe he's wonderful.
The Survation poll tonight is of voters as a whole (not even just Tories) and has Boris preferred to Gove 40% to 23% as next Tory leader and PM, Boris preferred to Hunt 38% to 28%, Boris preferred to Javid 37% to 28%, Boris preferred to Raab 40% to 23%, Boris preferred to Hancock 42% to 23% and Boris preferred to Rudd 41% to 27%.
32% think Boris is best placed to beat Tories, second placed Javid is miles behind on 11%.
The poll has Labour ahead 32% to 27% for the Tories with the Brexit Party on 13% but if Boris is leader Labour and the Tories are tied on 24% each with the Brexit Party back on 7%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
> >
> > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
>
> There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
I have heard some words for no deal but "cataclysmic?" Do you remainers have some kind of competition?
No deal is a disruption to the economy while it adjusts to the new trading terms that may or may not cause a technical recession and then after 9 months or so the economy will grow at a decent rate and still be creating jobs.
That is what every economic forecast has said.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840
> >
> > I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017.....
>
> Yes, Boris will beat Corbyn much to the annoyance of some of them
I thought PM May would lose her majority in 2017 before parliament was dissolved and I think that Boris would do even worse than May in any GE now even at peak honeymoon. People like me will never vote for Johnson and I doubt lifelong Labour voters will flock over to the Tories to replace people like me. 2017 showed the Tories could not win on this issue. Mind you knowing your style of comments I suspect you have been seduced by the Conservative/Brexit party pact. I actually think 2015 showed from a Conservative point of view a better electoral distribution of seats than any Conservative/UKIP/Brexit alliance...
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
> >
> > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
>
> There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
Good riddance, they can join CUK and see how they do
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > Pretty sure this is a photo of May reacting to the main headline:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1129483091192483840
> > >
> > > I think the Tories are in for an even bigger bad surprise if Johnson becomes PM and calls an early election than when May did in 2017.....
> >
> > Yes, Boris will beat Corbyn much to the annoyance of some of them
>
> I thought PM May would lose her majority in 2017 before parliament was dissolved and I think that Boris would do even worse than May in any GE now even at peak honeymoon. People like me will never vote for Johnson and I doubt lifelong Labour voters will flock over to the Tories to replace people like me. 2017 showed the Tories could not win on this issue. Mind you knowing your style of comments I suspect you have been seduced by the Conservative/Brexit party pact. I actually think 2015 showed from a Conservative point of view a better electoral distribution of seats than any Conservative/UKIP/Brexit alliance...
Trying to appease people like you will guarantee a Corbyn premiership as even more Tories will go to the Brexit Party than have already left.
In 2015 Cameron promised an EU referendum to get a majority, something he failed to achieve in 2010, the Tories problem now is they have failed to implement the result
"Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say
The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe.
Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis."
> NYT:
>
> "Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say
> The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe.
>
> Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis."
>
Any comment from Corbyn?
> https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1129422125029363713
How did we Londoners cope for 8 years - it really won't be the end of the world Marie! We even held the Olympics too.
> OK, briefly on before I go back to work.
>
>
>
> What's staggering is that Rory Stewart is being slaughtered.
>
>
>
> Why? Because he has the temerity to defend May's deal.
>
> And he is reasonable and thoughtful, doesn’t rant and rave, gives credit to those with differing views and generally doesn’t go round behaving as if he were auditioning for a part in a remake of Dad’s Army.
Yes. Some of the praise for Stewart can be overdone, but it's a poor reflection on the wider political culture, as well as the Tory party specifically, that he is rated so badly by the membership.
'The poll found Tory General Election voting intention had dropped to just 21%, well behind Labour on 30% and only just ahead of the Brexit Party on 19% (Change UK surged to 5th place with a whole 6%). Again, Boris was the only contender to make Brexit Party supporters more likely to vote Tory.
Interestingly, the poll also found that voters would be less likely to vote Labour if they backed a second referendum in all circumstances, 37% said they would be less likely to vote Labour if they did, compared to only 32% who said it was more likely.'
> > @The_Taxman said:
>
> > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > Tories to collapse Government if Boris Johnson becomes PM:
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7042737/Ministers-threaten-bring-government-accept-Boris-PM.html
>
> > >
>
> > > Boris will not go No Deal immediately. He will announce he is returning to Brussels to negotiate and the EU will give him an extension. Why on earth would he lose a key vote only days into his premiership (assuming all summer is used as an election contest)?
>
> >
>
> > There is a problem in UK politics and that is people who voted Remain cannot understand why the UK should still leave the EU, when through a process of deduction any deal is worse than the one we have as a member of the EU and No Deal is cataclysmic. These same remain people project Brexit onto Boris Johnson, he is the personification of Brexit. The problem for Johnson is he is that hated by sections of society they will never vote for him. There are also Tory MPs who share this hatred of Johnson, some of the MPs have already left the PCP but some have remained until now. If he becomes PM they will leave or even vote down his government because they feel he is unfit for office..
>
>
>
> I have heard some words for no deal but "cataclysmic?" Do you remainers have some kind of competition?
>
>
>
> No deal is a disruption to the economy while it adjusts to the new trading terms that may or may not cause a technical recession and then after 9 months or so the economy will grow at a decent rate and still be creating jobs.
>
>
>
> That is what every economic forecast has said.
>
> I love it how for some Brexiteers those economic forecasters who were wrong about what would happen to the economy after the Brexit vote are now to be treated as gurus when it comes to what will happen after a No Deal Brexit.
I have never on here criticised the forecasters. I think the much criticised forecast by the treasury is basically on the ball. They just should have changed the sentence that said "after the vote" to "After we leave."
The people I criticise are the people that use terms like economic disaster, economic chaos, etc.
Below you are saying that Rory Stewart is thoughtful and respectful of his opponents. Perhaps you might want to take a leaf out of his book?
What a sad bunch of numpties and blithering buffoons.
Pull the chain and flush this lot away to the great subterranean fatberg.
https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o
"You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?"
Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
Doing the job of a government MP of any Party up until very recently in other words.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
> A reminder:
> https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o
>
> "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?"
> Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself...
> I notice the Yougov poll of party members largely corroborates the much-derided ConHome poll of members...
I couldn't possibly comment
> > @ah009 said:
> > A reminder:
> > https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o
> >
> > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?"
> > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
>
> To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself...
There is no obligation to vote for either; I won't.
> A reminder:
>
>
>
>
>
> "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?"
>
> Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
>
> There’s an argument that you want a nasty piece of work to lead the country
Whom do you think I want to lead the country?
> The polls have opened in Australia:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
Results will start to come in from breakfast time in the UK tomorrow so will head to bed shortly
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > A reminder:
> > > https://youtu.be/ZAxA-9D4X3o
> > >
> > > "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you?"
> > > Required watching for anyone who thinks Boris Johnson is the right person to lead this country. Think again.
> >
> > To keep out Corbyn I would vote for the devil himself...
>
> There is no obligation to vote for either; I won't.
Well at the moment it is going to be one or the other, or Farage
(There’s an old half remembered quote I can’t track down - something like “the Prime Minister is a man you don’t like appointed to do the things that you don’t want to do”)
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1129472853928271877?s=21
>
> European Parliament voting intention:
>
> Brexit Party 30% (+20)
> Labour 25% (-13)
> Lib Dems 14% (+6)
> Conservatives 13% (-10)
> Change UK 6% (+2)
> Greens 6% (+2)
> UKIP 3% (-5)
>
> 10 – 13 May (change from 8 April)
>
> https://hanburystrategycloud.filecloudonline.com/ui/core/index.html?mode=single&path=/SHARED/data/xicUHcc7jpv9OXje
>
Very similar to Survation: Brexit 30, Lab 24, Con 14, LD 12, Green 4, SNP 4, UKIP 3, Change 3.
That sort of result has been almost discounted now and I'm not sure it will be all that seismic. Farage will get his moment of glory. Corbyn will say we came well ahead of the Tories. The Tories will say it was May and we're getting rid of her, the LibDems will say wa-hey, it's a surge. Everyone else will change the subject.
Wake up!
The toothpaste cannot be put back in the tube (to quote a PBer this afternoon).
> This interview says more about Mair than Boris to be honest. Streets ahead of Marr.
I agree that Mair is highly effective. He comes across to me as very sharp. There are moments where he riffs immediately on what his interviewees say, including in this clip. Skilful, sensitive, and with an understated authority. I admire Mair greatly.
> https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1129422125029363713
If 12 Tory MPs give up the Tory Whip , it is far from clear that Boris would become PM with the Tories below 305 seats.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > The polls have opened in Australia:
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
>
> Results will start to come in from breakfast time in the UK tomorrow so will head to bed shortly
What's your call? I reckon it could turn on a couple of seats. Labor minority if forced to choose. But my record is not stellar.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1129422125029363713
>
> If 12 Tory MPs give up the Tory Whip , it is far from clear that Boris would become PM with the Tories below 305 seats.
Twelve is a lot. Do you think it's realistic? Personally, I cannot see it. I could image two walking, though I would stake money on none if the odds were right.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > The polls have opened in Australia:
> > >
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
> >
> > Results will start to come in from breakfast time in the UK tomorrow so will head to bed shortly
>
> What's your call? I reckon it could turn on a couple of seats. Labor minority if forced to choose. But my record is not stellar.
Close but Shorten probably edges it but might require Independents.
However the 2PP in Australia does not always predict the winner, in 1998 Labor were on 53% in the final Newspoll and ended up with 51% but Howard won it, just, by winning in crucial marginals (Hawke did a similar thing in 1990). The final Newspoll has Labor on 51.5% and the Coalition on 48.5%.
Goodnight
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1129422125029363713
> >
> > If 12 Tory MPs give up the Tory Whip , it is far from clear that Boris would become PM with the Tories below 305 seats.
>
> Twelve is a lot. Do you think it's realistic? Personally, I cannot see it. I could image two walking, though I would stake money on none if the odds were right.
I think Tissue Price suggested there are rumours of 20 Tories resigning the Whip should Boris be elected.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > The polls have opened in Australia:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/may/18/australian-federal-election-2019-bill-shorten-scott-morrison-bob-hawke-polls-polling-vote-labor-coalition-liberals-australia-candidates-seats-odds-results-politics-live
> > >
> > > Results will start to come in from breakfast time in the UK tomorrow so will head to bed shortly
> >
> > What's your call? I reckon it could turn on a couple of seats. Labor minority if forced to choose. But my record is not stellar.
>
> Close but Shorten probably edges it but might require Independents.
>
> However the 2PP in Australia does not always predict the winner, in 1998 Labor were on 53% in the final Newspoll and ended up with 51% but Howard won it, just, by winning in crucial marginals (Hawke did a similar thing in 1990). The final Newspoll has Labor on 51.5% and the Coalition on 48.5%.
>
> Goodnight
Goodnight. I love a close election, me.
> I've been out drinking with a bunch of juniors tonight. Not a single one gives a single fuck about brexit or the election. The thing they were most interested in was when I was drunk ebofh to break out the company gold card. Needles to say I obliged fairly early.
Most people aren't into politics. It makes you wonder how the compulsory voting they have in Australia would work over here.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > NYT:
> >
> > "Venezuela’s Collapse Is the Worst Outside of War in Decades, Economists Say
> > The crumbling of Venezuela’s economy has now outpaced the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba’s unraveling in the 1990s and Zimbabwe’s collapse under Robert Mugabe.
> >
> > Shortages of food, water and medication have sunk most of the population into a deepening humanitarian crisis."
> >
>
> Any comment from Corbyn?
I expect Corbyn would blame Venezuela's collapse on American sanctions which for one reason or another are rarely mentioned on pb.
> I expect Corbyn would blame Venezuela's collapse on American sanctions which for one reason or another are rarely mentioned on pb.
>
Funny how sanctions don't appear to have affected the wealth of Chavez' daughter:
https://www.diariolasamericas.com/maria-gabriela-chavez-podria-ser-la-mujer-mas-rica-venezuela-n3265811