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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Out of excuses. Jeremy Corbyn, serial loser
Quick response to what happened in local elections.
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Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...
The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) has endorsed the Brexit Party for the Euro elections.
https://www.cpgb-ml.org/2019/05/07/news/galloway-farage-brexit-party-eu-election/
Quote:
"Along with George Galloway, the CPGB-ML considers that a one-time-only vote for the Brexit party in the upcoming European elections is the best way for workers to repeat their demand that Brexit actually be delivered."
Good piece as usual Alastair, there must now be a reasonable chance of both main parties replacing their leaders over the summer.
> TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?
>
> Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...
>
> The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
In all the analysis I did on local election turnout during my time in local politics, the most striking correlation was with the length of time someone had been on the register at their current address. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with many settled years in their locality were much more likely to vote than someone who had moved in only recently.
Given the tendency of younger people to move around, particularly in the south where almost all of them are tenants, this does correlate with local election voters tending to be older. On top of which about 75% of postal votes are returned for a local election, and these tend towards older population segments also. On the face of it this ought to give the Tories an advantage in local elections, but it is also an observed phenomena that people are more willing to vote centre or left locally, for better services in their area, and right nationally for lower taxes. Given the pattern of local election results nationwide isn’t hugely different from the parliamentary one (such that it doesn’t make a huge difference when both elections are held together, except that the slight bias towards the left in local elections becomes more observable) this suggests these two factors pretty much cancel out.
Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
> > @TheJezziah said:
>
> > TBH despite being interested in Corbyn I didn't vote in anything but the referendum and general election since his leadership, the civil war prior to 2017 probably didn't encourage me there but I'd never really paid much attention TBH, I am now but it could be reflective. Do local elections usually have an older electorate turnout than GE's?
>
> >
>
> > Never voted in the European elections either, maybe a little guilt there. I'll vote in at least one...
>
> >
>
> > The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
>
>
>
> In all the analysis I did on local election turnout during my time in local politics, the most striking correlation was with the length of time someone had been on the register at their current address. Perhaps unsurprisingly, people with many settled years in their locality were much more likely to vote than someone who had moved in only recently.
>
>
>
> Given the tendency of younger people to move around, particularly in the south where almost all of them are tenants, this does correlate with local election voters tending to be older. On top of which about 75% of postal votes are returned for a local election, and these tend towards older population segments also. On the face of it this ought to give the Tories an advantage in local elections, but it is also an observed phenomena that people are more willing to vote centre or left locally, for better services in their area, and right nationally for lower taxes. Given the pattern of local election results nationwide isn’t hugely different from the parliamentary one (such that it doesn’t make a huge difference when both elections are held together, except that the slight bias towards the left in local elections becomes more observable) this suggests these two factors pretty much cancel out.
>
> Interesting thanks, I do wonder if Labours greater skew towards younger voters recently and against older voters has meant this isn't as balanced as previously. Although I suppose only the one GE to go off for a comparison means you can get any pattern.
... as you can see, I was just thinking the same!
But then came the locals and to our amazement there were still real humans around and in greater numbers than we could have imagined and they were stating to organise ....
I was away for the locals and didn't bother with a postal vote because there didn't seem much point. But this time I will. The fight for the heart of the country has started and neither Corbyn's Labour nor the Tories deserve to play any part in it.
At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
Odd to have both Government and Opposition be so bloody dire.
Mr. Sandpit, did you stop watching the 2005 Champions League final halfway through?
https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
Would be interested to hear views on this.
> Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
>
> https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
>
> The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
>
> Would be interested to hear views on this.
That's right.
However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher
TBQH, as far as your second paragraph goes I would have said given he's a very large obstacle in Labour's path to government an imminent election would be the best imaginable reason for him to resign quickly. But he doesn't seem to care about Labour winning power, and nutters like Bastani won't see reality even when it's in front of their faces.
> The other thing to take away from it is Labours vote struggles when it is isn't directly related to making Corbyn PM.
So very different before Saint Tony won in 1997.
> Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
>
> At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!
Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.
That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.
The LDs matching their GE numbers in a non-GE year where turnout is down by half certainly counts as an increase in support.
I recall that Radio 5 Live gave their ‘fan of the year’ award that year to one fan who went to Instanbul, but left the ground at half time to beat the queues at the airport.
Can that be repeated as a starting point? Or has the baseline already dropped?
What Corbyn does have in his favour is that he does talk about domestic issues that matter to people in GE campaigns, whereas the Tories can’t seem to resist handing out hairy shirts and spraying shit over the electorate. So the competence of the Conservative campaign will be just as important.
> Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
> https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
> The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
>
> Would be interested to hear views on this.
>
> That contradicts the thread header, which says turnout wasn't lower. Was there anything different about Chelmsford, or has Alistair got it wrong?
Interesting thought. I'm old enough to remember elections in the mid to late 60's when the then Liberals were making a comeback. They did well in local elections, not so well in the GE, and I remember saying to a Liberal friend that it looked as if 'his lot' were motivated to vote in elections, whereas 'the rest' we're not. Or not so motivated. However, when it came to a GE the actual Lib vote stayed steady, while that of the other two parties increased.
This is wishful thinking.
Fancy flying that far, paying that much, and then doing that.
Speaking of sport, the F1 markets are up for Spain, where overtaking is tricky (which proved handy in 2016). My thinking is that Perez might do well, Verstappen might as well (although qualifying could hamper him). Sainz tends to be good at street circuits, if fuzzy memory is correct.
Oh, and Ferrari are bringing some upgrades. Engine stuff.
Anyway, nothing stands out from the early markets. Mildly tempted by Verstappen each way to win, but suspect the odds will lengthen. Perez at 751 each way for a few pence might be worth a look, if there's a pileup at the start I think he may be in good shape to capitalise.
The reason Corbyn got to 40% in 2017 was as so many Remainers voted Labour to try and stop a hard Brexit. Now Corbyn is still refusing to commit to reverse Brexit or even hold EUref2 many of those Remainers are turning to the LDs or Greens instead as the local elections showed and the European elections confirmed. While in a few Leave areas like Stoke the Tories are still even making gains building on gains they made at the last general election
It dies undermine the simplistic narrative of Remainers fleeing Lab/Tory and voting LD/Green.
> > @DavidL said:
>
> > Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
>
> >
>
> > At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
>
>
>
> Given the age of both the American president and what appear to be his main challengers, being 70 doesn't seem to be a bar!
>
> Although I must admit that, having just celebrated my 81st, I don't feel as mentally lively as I did a few years ago.
>
>
>
> That's not to say that I think Corbyn's doing a good job. Seems to me he's a fine example of the Peter principle.
>
> I see no signs that Corbyn is considering standing down.
>
> This is wishful thinking.
There were some hints from inside Labour a while back that he might be thinking of doing so. My guess is that he wants to see off May first, and have some certainty around the succession. If May is despatched, things could move quickly.
Iran nuclear deal: Tehran may increase uranium enrichment
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48197628
> The obvious conclusion from Labour and Conservative behaviour is that local politics is of no interest to national politicians. You can reach the same conclusion from the opposite direction by observing that IDS was forced out despite doing better than expected in local and European polls.
It shows a trend though, loss of councillors and activists by the Tories pre 1997 and Labour pre 2010 set the course for MPs losing their seats in those general elections
Asia Bibi: Christian leaves Pakistan after blasphemy acquittal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48198340
> ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
>
> Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum compared to 80% of under 35s with a degree
> > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
> >
> > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
> >
> > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
> >
> > Would be interested to hear views on this.
>
> That's right.
>
> However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher
I would expect that a detailed analysis of the voting records would put some holes in that theory. The idea that one party’s GE voters all turn out for a local election and the other side’s don’t is for the birds - it’s a fact of life that there are people interested in local elections and who think they are important, and those do don’t, across all parties. No party is ever going to get all of its GE supporters out for a local election; that would be a miracle.
So to achieve results like that the LibDems will have won across local election voters who previously voted Tory, for sure.
However, it does appear that in Chelmsford the LibDems ran an active campaign whereas the Tories almost sat on their hands (the leader of the Chemsford Tories wrote an article for ConHome about his campaign, most of which explained why they weren’t doing things - for example they stopped canvassing because it was upsetting people!). In such circumstances the LDs surely did better in pulling out their supporters than the Tories. But the difference an active campaign makes to a result is generally around the margins - most local elections are won or lost before the election period starts.
> O/T
>
> The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) has endorsed the Brexit Party for the Euro elections.
>
> https://www.cpgb-ml.org/2019/05/07/news/galloway-farage-brexit-party-eu-election/
>
> Quote:
> "Along with George Galloway, the CPGB-ML considers that a one-time-only vote for the Brexit party in the upcoming European elections is the best way for workers to repeat their demand that Brexit actually be delivered."
They endorsed Corbyn at the last general election and have endorsed the Brexit Party for the European elections
> > @IanB2 said:
> > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
> >
> > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
>
> On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
where's Eagles?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
> > >
> > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
> >
> > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
>
> Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
the degree issue has been pointed out for ages, which makes the "stupid" meme for leavers a tad stupid.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
> > >
> > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
> >
> > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
>
> Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
I think it is still just under 50% of young people are graduates
Across the pond there are successful political leaders far older than he is, some of whom are running for office all over again.
My working assumption is that he stays until after the result of the next GE, whenever that is.
When you start getting hectored or lambasted on the doorstep as a volunteer it simply isn’t fun, and your sense of duty to the Party only stretches so far.
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
>
> > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
>
> > >
>
> > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
>
> > >
>
> > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
>
> > >
>
> > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
>
> >
>
> > That's right.
>
> >
>
> > However, 2015 was a General Election year and therefore overall turnout was higher
>
>
>
>
>
> I would expect that a detailed analysis of the voting records would put some holes in that theory. The idea that one party’s GE voters all turn out for a local election and the other side’s don’t is for the birds - it’s a fact of life that there are people interested in local elections and who think they are important, and those do don’t, across all parties. No party is ever going to get all of its GE supporters out for a local election; that would be a miracle.
>
>
>
> So to achieve results like that the LibDems will have won across local election voters who previously voted Tory, for sure.
>
>
>
> However, it does appear that in Chelmsford the LibDems ran an active campaign whereas the Tories almost sat on their hands (the leader of the Chemsford Tories wrote an article for ConHome about his campaign, most of which explained why they weren’t doing things - for example they stopped canvassing because it was upsetting people!). In such circumstances the LDs surely did better in pulling out their supporters than the Tories. But the difference an active campaign makes to a result is generally around the margins - most local elections are won or lost before the election period starts.
>
> Maybe I’m overly sensitive but I can get affected by a bad canvassing experience. Like many Brits I don’t particularly like doing it “naturally” anyway, as it feels rather intrusive to knock on a strangers door and it takes a while for me to warm up.
>
> When you start getting hectored or lambasted on the doorstep as a volunteer it simply isn’t fun, and your sense of duty to the Party only stretches so far.
Maybe but without up to date canvassing data on who your supporters are to knock up in a close election you will lose.
The Tories held 2 marginal wards in Epping Forest last week from the LDs each by less than 100 votes largely due to effective canvass data and knocking up, it seems Tories in Chelmsford did not and suffered the consequences
Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?
What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.
White middle-class southern youth absolutely love him.
> The problem with this article and several of the comments is that it compares an unsatisfactory present with a hypothetical alternative reality ("If X were leader, Labour would be Y% ahead"). In practice, as we've repeatedly seen, all Labour leaders are besieged by media attempts to portray them as extreme, stupid, bumbling, out of touch, or any combination of those. It usually works - only Tony Blair in recent memory was able to ride it out successfully. Miliband "was an out of touch North London intellectual - can't even eat a bacon sandwich properly". Brown was "a domineering spendthrift", Smith was "a reckless supporter of high taxation", Kinnock was "a Welsh windbag", etc. We all have weaknesses and the media and now social media are adept at highlighting them.
>
> Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?
>
> What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.
Tory leaders are mocked and lampooned every bit as much as Labour ones, and I never understand these rather gushing claims about what a lovely bloke he is in his spare time, because we aren't really concerned about what he does in his spare time, are we?
> The Councils where Labour ought to be breaking through, but are not, are ones like South Derbyshire, NW Leicestershire, East Staffordshire, Watford, Swindon, Thurrock, Dartford, Medway, Tamworth, Dacorum, Dudley, Walsall, Dover, North Warwickshire, NE Lincolnshire, traditional swing boroughs.
>
> But, in Croydon and Harlow, they have.
>
> White middle-class southern youth absolutely love him.
Harlow is unusual. Like Stevenage, it's remained very loyal to Labour locally, while going Conservative nationally.
Don't forget any of your other paragraphs could refer to the Tories too. Thatcher, Major, Hague, Duncan Smith, Howard, even Cameron to a lesser extent all came in for nasty media heckling. It's what they do. It's one reason why Cameron couldn't win an overall majority at the first attempt despite Brown's government being less popular than Major's. But none of those refer to anything other than party management. If Labour members all want one thing, and refuse to compromise on it, and the electorate want something different, then Labour has to accept it can't win power. And ultimately if Labour isn't fully focussed on winning power, it won't. At the moment, that's the decision it has made. If you're happy with that, great, but it seems to me as a swing voter to be a poor decision.
It was Blair's genius that he understood this and led Labour back to power, and I would add that was what Labour members (including you I think) wanted more than anything in the mid-90s.
Have a good morning.
> The problem with this article and several of the comments is that it compares an unsatisfactory present with a hypothetical alternative reality ("If X were leader, Labour would be Y% ahead"). In practice, as we've repeatedly seen, all Labour leaders are besieged by media attempts to portray them as extreme, stupid, bumbling, out of touch, or any combination of those. It usually works - only Tony Blair in recent memory was able to ride it out successfully. Miliband "was an out of touch North London intellectual - can't even eat a bacon sandwich properly". Brown was "a domineering spendthrift", Smith was "a reckless supporter of high taxation", Kinnock was "a Welsh windbag", etc. We all have weaknesses and the media and now social media are adept at highlighting them.
>
> Labour has structural difficulties that would not be solved by replacing Corbyn with, say, Watson. Are we socialists (wanting to change from capitalism) or social democrats (wanting to run capitalism humanely)? Are we Remainers or Leavers or don't we really care? Are we idealistic middle-class intellectuals or hard-headed working-class champions? Are we rooted in the north or the south? What is our Scottish appeal?
>
> What Corbyn has going for him is that he reflects what most members want (unlike Tony), is genuinely liked by most people who know him well (unlike Gordon), and has an utterly loyal inner circle (unlike every leader of either major party in recent memory). These are not negligible assets, and should not be discarded lightly.
If Jeremy Corbyn is the best that Labour can offer Labour is finished. Most people who know Jeremy like him because most people who know him agree with him. He never leaves his comfort zone. That's where the loyalty comes from, too. And most Labour members do not want to leave the EU or NATO; while even now I struggle to believe that most are anti-Semitic - though, to their eternal shame, they are willing to overlook those among them who are.
On the other hand, Labour councils have a branding problem of big spenders who hit their residents in the pocket.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > ...although as a p.s. my data comes from a period when class was still the principal driver of politics. If age does replace class as the underlying driver of voter behaviour, you would expect Labour to start doing a lot better when multiple elections are held on the same day, and worse when they are not. Indeed Labour’s loss of its older WWC base and its increasing reliance on the young is an interesting - and so far uncommented upon - possible explanation for its recent underperformance in local elections?
> > > >
> > > > Edit/ and of course if Labour’s excuse is that its younger voter base isn’t so bothered about local elections, this makes last week’s Tory performance amongst the older voters who are, even worse!
> > >
> > > On Brexit though class may still be a factor, only 37% of under 35s without a degree voted Remain in the EU referendum
> >
> > Most analysis suggests that education is acting largely as a proxy for age, though, as far as the Brexit referendum is concerned, since the proportion of degree educated pensioners is tiny whereas more than half of younger people now go to university. And the question is of course about Labour’s supporters - who are mostly Remain voters in the first place.
>
> the degree issue has been pointed out for ages, which makes the "stupid" meme for leavers a tad stupid.
The "stupid" meme is stupid, but the stats being quoted there are for under 35s, which is more interesting.
Labour councils have often been profligate, but high council tax levels are a lot easier to reallocate after years of austerity. A Conservative council which prides itself on low council tax has no wriggle room given the 1.99% cap and the increasing demands on council spending.
We are about to have a real shit-hits-fan moment in our town as a direct result of (Conservative) county council cuts and it really isn’t going to be pretty.
Some of the 'time to retire' comments are pure fantasy, I even saw a comment on here a while back saying Corbyn has cancer and John McDonnell is poised to swoop in. Quite an intense claim to spuriously spread about.
I get he's a marmite figure and I consistently voted against him, but to laser in on the locals or dream of him suddenly retiring or dying(!) ignores the reality that he is about 30 gains away from implementing his socialist utopia. Considering where he started from, doesn't look impossible...
> Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
>
> https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
>
> The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
>
> Would be interested to hear views on this.
Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.
False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.
There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.
The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.
The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.
It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.
Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.
I was there last night and I’ll be in Madrid on the first of June.
I might actually pray today and thank Allah for stepping Jürgen Klopp from becoming Manchester United manager, sheer brilliance from Ed Woodward.
at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
Discuss.
I mean Tories lost over a 1,300 seats and Labour still made a net loss of seats, remarkable.
Anybody who writes "splitters" under this fails at comedy and at life.
Just to be clear, when I posted the comment about Corbyn being unwell I explicitly stated it was third hand gossip from the Westminster circle and I had no way of validating it.
So there was no spurious spreading of rumours just a factual statement of what I had been told. It’s up to other people to decided if/how to factor their betting
> Betting post.....
>
>
>
> at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
>
> That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45
How do you work that out?
> > @isam said:
> > Betting post.....
> >
> >
> >
> > at the start of the season I wrote on here that there was a bet available of 25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premiership with Salah top scorer. I put on £25. There is now another bet 18/1 Brighton to beat City which I've just put £20 on. Unless my maths has let me down that has been a pretty easy minimum £350 I'll have won or have I missed something?
> >
> > That first bet is still about a 10/1 shot isn’t it? The likelihood is you’ll lose £45
>
> How do you work that out?
Of course! If City win I lose. I thought it was too good to be true. My brain wasn't functioning
> > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
> >
> > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
> >
> > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
> >
> > Would be interested to hear views on this.
>
> Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.
>
> False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.
>
> There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.
>
> The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.
>
> The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.
>
> It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.
>
> Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.
Thanks Cicero. Just on the active switch of Conservative voters to Lib Dem, is there much hard evidence? I don't recall seeing much
> Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
>
> At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
'Ohh, John McDonnell' doesn't scan. He'll have to stay on until he can find a five syllable replacement
Will there actually be a Tory party left by the autumn to have a conference?
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @TheKitchenCabinet said:
> > > Just re the local elections read-across, interesting blog post here,
> > >
> > > https://simonbriscoeblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/and-the-local-election-results-show/
> > >
> > > The author looked at Chelmsford as an example and finds that the number of LD voters in absolute terms stayed the same in 2019 vs 2015 but that the Conservative vote stayed at home hence the dramatic loss in councillors.
> > >
> > > Would be interested to hear views on this.
> >
> > Several important mistakes. Firstly the turnout was not markedly lower than comparable elections, even though it was lower last time, last time was a GE.
> >
> > False pattern recognition- just because the Lib Dem vote levels seem comparable it doesn't mean that they are all the same voters, in fact there is evidence of considerable numbers of previously Conservative voters actively voting against the Tories, not merely sitting on their hands.
> >
> > There is further evidence that the Conservative organisation was demoralised and badly organised and to a degree complacent, whereas the Lib Dems were active and fired up.
> >
> > The crumbs of comfort that some Conservatives are seeking to draw... "Voters strike" etc are not supported by much evidence. The fact is the result was a shellacking for the Conservatives and it could have been quite a bit worse.
> >
> > The conclusion is that the Lib Dems have momentum and the Euros will be even worse for the Conservatives than the locals were.
> >
> > It may be that the negative publicity about Farage and the continuing UKIP may mean that TBP underperforms- that is the one hope the Conservatives have of avoiding their worst result ever. However the no dealers are maybe louder and more rage filled than they are actually numerous, so I don't exclude a weaker - albeit still impressive- combined UKIP/TBP result compared to UKIP alone last time. That is the straw that Tories must continue to pluck at.
> >
> > Caught between a UKIP/TBP vote flanking them on the far right/Leave axis and the Lib Dems flanking them on the centre/Remain axis, there might not be much for the Tories to save.
>
> Thanks Cicero. Just on the active switch of Conservative voters to Lib Dem, is there much hard evidence? I don't recall seeing much
Public data is a bit thin... I think some of the voter panels picked it up, certainly canvass returns showed 15%-20% switching in at least three districts where the Tories lost control that I saw. Not necessarily nationally consistent, but then the results too varied across the country, but I think, thin as it is it is, enough to infer that it was similar in Chelmsford.
> Return flights to Madrid are now over £1,500 at the end of May.
>
> The Champions League final coincides with the start of my stint as editor of PB, that weekend you’re getting a lot of written well in advance threads on AV and electoral reform.
As a lifelong Man Utd supporter I watched Liverpool last night and have nothing but praise for Klopp, the players and supporters in achieving a magnificient result with awe inspiring total football.
Over the years I have had many great times with Man Utd culminating in being in Barcelona when Ole scored the winner, but the quality and energy in the football displayed by Liverpool and City is so remarkable I doubt Man Utd will compete at this level for several years
Every good wish to Liverpool to win the Champions league, indeed they may even do the double
Amazing
Actually that is arguable.
They didn't do well and they inevitably lost a lot of councillors.
BUT THE CONSERVATIVE NEV WAS 31%
Equal to Labour and 14% above the LibDems.
Now lets remember how governing parties have done in some earlier years:
1985
Conservative NEV 32%, 7% behind Labour, 6% ahead of Alliance
1990
Conservative NEV 33%, 11% behind Labour, 16% ahead of LibDems
1993
Conservative NEV 31%, 8% behind Labour, 6% ahead of LibDems
1994
Conservative NEV 27%, 12% behind Labour, 1% ahead of LibDems
1995
Conservative NEV 25%, 22% behind Labour, 2% ahead of LibDems
1996
Conservative NEV 29%, 14% behind Labour, 3% ahead of LibDems
2000
Labour NEV 30%, 8% behind Conservatives, 4% ahead of LibDems
2003
Labour NEV 30%, 5% behind Conservatives, 3% ahead of LibDems
2004
Labour NEV 26%, 11% behind Conservatives, 1% behind LibDems
2006
Labour NEV 26%, 13% behind Conservatives, 1% ahead of LibDems
2007
Labour NEV 26%, 14% behind Conservatives, 2% ahead of LibDems
2008
Labour NEV 24%, 19% behind Conservatives, 1% ahead of LibDems
2009
Labour NEV 22%, 13% behind Conservatives, 3% behind LibDems
2012
Conservative NEV 33%, 6% behind Labour, 18% ahead of LibDems
2013
Conservative NEV 26%, 3% behind Labour, 13% ahead of LibDems
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48195463
Executive summary: "Dunno!"
And on that farm he re-educated tory shits through penal labour.
> https://twitter.com/parlez_me_ntory/status/1126033584576454656?s=21
I remember when Derby won the league Malcolm Allison saying 'This lot won't get past Calais'
> The venom from the likes of Bill Cash demanding TM resigns sums up the blinkers ERG have in so far as they have no alternatives that could change anything, and you do wonder just how many conservative mps want TM out just now and as Sky has just commented there does not seem to be a big move by the public against TM as the public think she is doing the best she can
There does seem to be some mental disfunction affecting a group of Conservative MP's. Rare for such na thing to be catching. Have they been eating rye bread and therefore developed a form of ergotism?
> Remarkable example of bet-hedging:
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48195463
>
> Executive summary: "Dunno!"
I've got just the track for it Councillor.....
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=little+green+bag#id=0&vid=8ad3a53b5c214eca272c3b7e0c1c6c7c&action=view
Many seats will be won with a lower share of the vote than lost the seat in 2017.
So it's Countdown Wednesday as Theresa May has until 4pm today to set out her "roadmap" to buggering off.
#curtains
> https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1126008479393693696
Thought for a crazy moment that Alex Massie's old pa had found some money down the back of a sofa.
Not the most inspiring track record as a backer.
'Mr Massie has donated to politicians including Kezia Dugdale, the former Scottish Labour leader who has announced she is quitting parliament this summer, Owen Smith, who lost a leadership challenge against Mr Corbyn in 2016, and Jim Murphy, Ms Dugdale’s predecessor who presided over the 2015 election in which his party lost 40 of its 41 Westminster seats.'
In my area;
Turnout dropped a bit on 2011.
In terms of raw votes the Lib Dems were on par with 2011, only slightly above par when taking into account the turnout drop.
This is a Tory Leave area where Labour is the main challenger sure, but it's not like there aren't plenty of Remainers, more than enough to have an effect on a low turnout election if they were minded too.
No, I ain't gonna work on McDonnell's farm no more
Well, I wake up in the morning, fold my hands and pray for rain
He's got a head full of ideas that are drivin' him insane...