British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
(from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
> @kinabalu said: > On topic. That Jeremy Corbyn is not an election winning phenom is hard to argue with and I am not going to even try. However, with the implosion of the Cons, the return of Farage, and the likelihood that the next general election will happen with Brexit not delivered, my reading of the FPTP electoral calculus is that he has a greater than ever chance of becoming PM. It really does look on. There is a touch of the Chauncey Gardiners in how things are playing out for Jeremy. Atoms are colliding in just the precise way required. Number 10 beckons. It's written.
You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
> @Cyclefree said: > https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1126055388342886400 > > > > > > Why not? Everyone else is. > > It would not massively surprise me if she were to win. > > > > Indeed, perhaps we would have been in a better position if she had won last time! > > A proven liar and thick as mince. > > It really is time for the Tories to wind themselves up before they do any more damage to the country.
unfortunately the LOTO alternative is even thicker and considerably worse.
> @Cyclefree said: The Cold War has been over for some time. Islamist terrorism has been - and continues to be - a menace and Pakistan is one of the countries which harbours it. It is not a country which ought to be lavished with foreign aid while behaving in an uncivilised way. If foreign aid is meant to be part of our soft power, what the hell are we getting from it re Pakistan?
I'm not sure that, for instance, stopping funding girls' education is going to have the effect you're hoping for.
> @isam said: > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK" > > Bob Dylan?
> Not sure if I need mind bleach (or whether you might need some after reading this!), but I actually dreamt about going to a Brexit Party meeting! I dreamt that I met Farage, and he said something on the lines of the chocolate treats on offer to attendees were sponsored by Swiss company Lindt, and that I surreptitiously helped myself to quite a few.
>
> But I woke up before we got onto major policy announcements!
>
> Please note, readers, that I'm NOT a member or fanboy of the Brexit Party, or any other political party!
Bad luck Sunil. Maybe tonight it will be a Change UK meeting and you get to help yourself to the treats their leader offers you...
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @kinabalu said: > > On topic. That Jeremy Corbyn is not an election winning phenom is hard to argue with and I am not going to even try. However, with the implosion of the Cons, the return of Farage, and the likelihood that the next general election will happen with Brexit not delivered, my reading of the FPTP electoral calculus is that he has a greater than ever chance of becoming PM. It really does look on. There is a touch of the Chauncey Gardiners in how things are playing out for Jeremy. Atoms are colliding in just the precise way required. Number 10 beckons. It's written. > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
As I recall it the big problem in the 70's was the oil price rise. That unsettled things dreadfully.
The Cold War has been over for some time. Islamist terrorism has been - and continues to be - a menace and Pakistan is one of the countries which harbours it. It is not a country which ought to be lavished with foreign aid while behaving in an uncivilised way. If foreign aid is meant to be part of our soft power, what the hell are we getting from it re Pakistan?
I'm not sure that, for instance, stopping funding girls' education is going to have the effect you're hoping for.
Wouldn’t we do better using the money to stop girls of Pakistani heritage born here being taken out of education and sent off to marry “cousins” in Pakistan? To educate their parents that this is a no-no? To educate some of the men here about how to treat women: both Asian and white? Etc
How much of or foreign aid is actually going to help girls’ education? And to what end? Girls are still being raped as a punishment for crimes committed by men. Little point changing girls’ expectations if the expectations of the men around them and the laws preventing them from living a full life haven’t changed. .
> @isam said: > > Or just get on a train to Madrid. Eurostar to Paris. Paris to Madrid. > > Liverpool to London first!
Mmm. Unless most of them live in London to start with. But hopefully not, given this is Liverpool not Man U.
So, every chance of an all English final in both the UCL and the Europa. That would be amazing.
And if it happens only the most clinical and heartless of pundits (thinking here of Alastair Meeks, David Herdson, people like that) will seek to deny the oh so obvious Brexit angle.
Feeling pretty happy about my Ajax or Spurs tip of a couple months ago at odds of 40/1 or 25/1 respectively. I fancy either of those against Liverpool, notwithstanding the heroics of yesterday.
Spurs are currently punching above their weight thanks to the titan Pochettino but in many ways that's all rather endearing.
There have been many terrific articles of late on pb.com. Mike Smithson nailed it (again) yesterday and this is very good by Alastair.
Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait.
That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep.
> @david_herdson said: > On topic, with reference to Corbyn's serial loseriness, quiz question: which of Labour's post-war leaders made net gains in Westminster by-elections? Obviously, Corbyn (0 gains, 1 loss) isn't among them. It's a surprisingly short list.
Miss Cyclefree, not least because a few generations of cousin marrying leads to genetic similarity between cousins equivalent to that usual between siblings, increasing birth defects (learning difficulties and the like).
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long.
Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer?
> @Mysticrose said: > There have been many terrific articles of late on pb.com. Mike Smithson nailed it (again) yesterday and this is very good by Alastair. > > Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait. > > That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep.
Well, maybe. But Blair in the 90s was able to hide from EU division by giving up on Euro membership. There's nowhere to hide now. And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore.
Perhaps someone like Clive Lewis could do a better job, but uniting the country to provide a convincing opposition might simply not be possible right now.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us. > > There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long. > > Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer? > > Or is it all just empty talk?
Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us. > > > > There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long. > > > > Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer? > > > > Or is it all just empty talk? > > Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help.
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
(from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > There have been many terrific articles of late on pb.com. Mike Smithson nailed it (again) yesterday and this is very good by Alastair. > > > > Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait. > > > > That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep. > > Well, maybe. But Blair in the 90s was able to hide from EU division by giving up on Euro membership. There's nowhere to hide now. And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore. > > Perhaps someone like Clive Lewis could do a better job, but uniting the country to provide a convincing opposition might simply not be possible right now.
The only people who were really fussed about EU membership in the 90's were the batshit crazies who have developed into the ERG and for a while the BNP.
> @isam said: > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK" > > Bob Dylan?
Understandable error. Bob uses the word 'joker' in his songs an awful lot. Clown and clowns feature too. Watching a Jesus drama on the TV the other day it also struck me how Dylan draws on biblical language, not the exact words but the tone and flavour of it.
> The only people who were really fussed about EU membership in the 90's were the batshit crazies who have developed into the ERG and for a while the BNP. >
Exactly right. No one really cared about the EU. Okay, there were the occasional titters at the latest OTT health & safety moment, but for the most part we all got on with our lives.
Brexit was, is, and always has been all about the Conservative party civil war. They have dragged this country down because of it. Unforgivable.
> @Nigelb said: > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK" > > They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue > The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo > Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance > One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants > And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go > As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row > > (from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave) > > There must be some way out of here, though ?
Said the JOKER to the thief. See? Thing about jokers, Bob.
> @Mysticrose said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Mysticrose said: > > And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore. > > > > > That seems like an Argumentum ad Silencium to me. Just because the people aren't being offered it, doesn't mean it isn't popular. > > And when they were offered it, just now, in the local Elections they seized it with alacrity. LibDems and Greens are doing brilliantly. > > The centre is always where this country is at and where elections are won. It's wide open for the taking.
The Greens are not centrist. A centrist UK would not have voted for Brexit.
In 2006 the UK was reasonably content with the status quo. That is not the case any more. For all his faults Corbyn does at least offer a challenge to the status quo. A different Labour leader who did not challenge the status quo might manage to do worse than Corbyn.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Nigelb said: > > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK" > > > > They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue > > The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo > > Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance > > One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants > > And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go > > As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row > > > > (from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave) > > > > There must be some way out of here, though ? > > Said the JOKER to the thief. See? Thing about jokers, Bob.
And clowns - always prepared to turn around to see their frowns.
"We are heading towards a 1997-type defeat unless we make fundamental and radical changes to our Party machinery and to our policies and deliver, as instructed, a good Brexit."
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Rose, you recall a majority of voters backed leaving the EU, right? > >
'Mr' ?!!
It was, as you know, a slender win. The country was clearly duped by leave lies and illegal activities. And there's plenty of evidence that the country is now pro Remain.
Incidentally, on that last point I'm very very very suspicious about assuming that the Farage rallies are indicative of the overall mood. It reminds me very much of the infamous 1936 US polling fiasco.
Remember, that there were 2.4 million respondents: a huge sample size, which led to the prediction that Alf Landon would beat Franklin Roosevelt 57% to 43%. The actual result was Roosevelt winning by 62% to 37%
'In 1936, Literary Digest, a national magazine of the time, sent out 10 million "straw" ballots asking people to tell them who they planned on voting for in the 1936 presidential election. They recieved back 2.4 million ballots (not bad for a pre-internet time when polling was still in its infancy, but still only about a 25% return rate, which leaves the door open for voluntary response bias). They predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin Delanor Roosevelt 57% to 43%. As it turned out, Roosevelt won 62% to 37%.
There were two large problems:
First, the sample chosen was not representative of voters. Literary Digest used lists of phone numbers, drivers' registrations, and country club memberships to select its sample. But 1936 was the height of the depression. At that time, phones, cars, and country clubs were more often available only to rich. The economy was the central campain issue of the election with Roosevelt advocating the New Deal that was attractive to lower income people, so the opinions of the rich and poor were bound to differ on this issue. As such, their sample turned out to be incredibly biased, and ultimately, useless.
Second, the sample chosen did indeed suffer from voluntary response bias. In Chicago, the Literary Digest used a systematic sampling technique. They asked every 3rd registered voter. The results still predicted that Landon would win, even though Roosevelt was the overwhelming favorite when the ballots came actually came in. This suggests that the people who supported Roosevelt were less likely to respond to the survey, thus creating the nonresponse bias towards Landon winning.
The Literary Digest "lost face" and later went out of business.' (Source Oxford Math Centre)
@david_herdson The mechanism is Article 50. There is nothing in the text that prevents the WA being agreed / ratified after the member has left: the timetable and the WA clauses are distinct and not inherently reliant on each other (except that you can leave early if a WA is already in place (!)
There's nothing in the manual for trousers that says "check your zip when you come out of the loo" either. The Withdrawal Agreement is an extension of existing EU things for around 21 months. The UK asked for it because UK triggered Article 50 then realised it couldn't get ready in time. When we leave the WA lapses by definition and any new treaty or agreements will have to be negotiated from scratch.
We've just had God knows how many years of arguments based on pure fictions. Can we at least, even if only amongst ourselves, stop tormenting ourselves and each other with myths and deal with the facts on the ground? This bloody Brexit is turning into the UK version of Vietnam in its colossal level of self-delusion...
> @pbr2013 said: > Ferry to Santander or Bilbao and onward by train or car.
Real fans would walk it the whole way, Liverpool to Madrid, wading through rivers and streams, swimming if necessary when faced with stretches of deep water.
Well they certainly won't be delivering a "good Brexit" because that is a contradiction in terms, it could only be a bad Brexit or a worse Brexit. But at the current rate of progress they won't be delivering any kind of Brexit at all.
> @kinabalu said: > > @pbr2013 said: > > Ferry to Santander or Bilbao and onward by train or car. > > Real fans would walk it the whole way, Liverpool to Madrid, wading through rivers and streams, swimming if necessary when faced with stretches of deep water.
Surely real Liverpool fans would nick a car and joyride down there?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @rottenborough said: > > Jenkins call on May to go. At PMQs. > > It will be hilarious when she loses her seat at the next GE
I don't think TSE will be canvassing for her next time.
> Good header, Corbyn's record in local elections is indeed abysmal and his failure to reverse the collapse of Scottish Labour is a major strategic weakness on the road to a working majority.
>
> At 70 years of age (on the 26th) surely the time has come for Corbyn to step aside. I suspect that he would have done so already had the collapse of this government and another election not looked so imminent.
'Ohh, John McDonnell' doesn't scan. He'll have to stay on until he can find a five syllable replacement
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
Bob Dylan?
I particularly liked the use of Dylan's "Born Slippy" in "Trainspotting". And the use of Dylan's "Imperial March" in "The Empire Strikes Back" was inspired...
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @malcolmg said: > > Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself > > > > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand. > > Referred to Duchess of Sussex as Wessex
An innocent mistake. I've done worse. Far, far worse. And my Dad can never get the names of his sons right either.
Our asylum laws are catch 22. Broadly: you can only apply for asylum in the country, but if you are in the country then you are not eligible as you entered illegally.
Allowing asylum applications to the persecuted overseas would be an interesting precedent.
Not if you apply at the point of entry
That means going to a border post and claiming asylum
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
Bob Dylan?
I particularly liked the use of Dylan's "Born Slippy" in "Trainspotting". And the use of Dylan's "Imperial March" in "The Empire Strikes Back" was inspired...
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
Bob Dylan?
I particularly liked the use of Dylan's "Born Slippy" in "Trainspotting". And the use of Dylan's "Imperial March" in "The Empire Strikes Back" was inspired...
Stuck in the middle with you is meant to be a parody of Dylan though - " Rafferty's lyrics are a dismissive tale of a music industry cocktail party written and performed as a parody of Bob Dylan's paranoia (the vocal impression, subject & styling was so similar, listeners have wrongly attributed the song to Dylan since its release)" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuck_in_the_Middle_with_You#Overview
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself > > > > > > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand. > > > > Referred to Duchess of Sussex as Wessex > > An innocent mistake. I've done worse. Far, far worse. And my Dad can never get the names of his sons right either. > > Have you ever misspoken?
Of course we all err but his was unfortunate in view of the topical nature of the Duchess of Sussex
> @SandyRentool said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Jenkins call on May to go. At PMQs. > > > > It will be hilarious when she loses her seat at the next GE > > I don't think TSE will be canvassing for her next time. > > But she can still rely on Morris Dancer's vote!
Hers is the type of seat that the Conservatives will likely hold.
Do you think they'll work out he should run under "Remain Alliance", or will he have "GREEN CUCKLD - TIG: The Independent Group #change.org" next to his name?
> > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
> >
> > They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue
> > The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo
> > Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance
> > One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants
> > And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go
> > As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
> >
> > (from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
> >
> > There must be some way out of here, though ?
>
> Said the JOKER to the thief. See? Thing about jokers, Bob.
And clowns - always prepared to turn around to see their frowns.
A couple of observations from further afield: Finland looks to be heading for a centre-left Government as a bloc of the centre and centre-left parties with 117 out of 200 seats are in negotiation and on June 5th Denmark goes to the polls with the centre-left bloc leading the centre-right bloc 54-46. The centre-right bloc is anchored by the Venstre (literally "Left" but more akin to a "Coalition" type party) and the Dansk Folkeparti (more to the right) which between them scored 40.6% in the last election but are now barely at 30% between them.
The Social Democrats are up slightly as are the Red/Green Alliance.
Reflecting more on the local elections, I predicted weeks ago the Independents would do well and whether it be the Andover Alliance or R4GW or Farnham Residents or whatever, they did well by being local and not being national. I've no doubt a number of Conservatives voters protested the national situation by voting for one of these Independent blocs but that in no way means these voters will desert the Conservatives at the next GE.
The question for these new local blocs is whether they want to emulate the Ashfield Independents and consider standing at a constituency level. Could an Independent candidate take Guildford - it's a big ask with the majority 17,000 or more but could such a candidate (with a Brexit Party spoiler in the mix too) win?
The Conservatives (and Labour too in many respects) face the pincer movement of LDs (in some places), Independents (in some places) and the BP (perhaps in all places).
British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
Bob Dylan?
I particularly liked the use of Dylan's "Born Slippy" in "Trainspotting". And the use of Dylan's "Imperial March" in "The Empire Strikes Back" was inspired...
And Dylan's "Je ne regrette rien" in Inception
Which reminds me. Have a look at the aircraft (and their manufacturers) that the India Air Force has flown since it's inception. It's a useful shorthand for working out which countries it is/was allied to.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us. > > > > > > There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long. > > > > > > Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer? > > > > > > Or is it all just empty talk? > > > > Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help. > > Which of his policies poll badly?
Apple pies for everyone normally polls quite well - got sfa to do with the point however.
> @malcolmg said: > > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
Not ALL donkeys surely.
In fact, question for you. Very serious and sober one.
Looking at English MP politicians, any party, which one do you like the most? - i.e. a person who you see and listen to and say to yourself, "Ooo, I wish we had him or her up here in Scotland."
No doubt there's a few, but who is your favourite?
> Can they sort it out before the Brexit Party select a candidate?
>
> Time is already running short.
Do you think they'll work out he should run under "Remain Alliance", or will he have "GREEN CUCKLD - TIG: The Independent Group #change.org" next to his name?
I think they should go for the "Rebel Alliance" myself. Then we can have X-Wings...
> @malcolmg said: > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand. > > He offered congratulations to the wrong Royal parents > > Well they are all so inbred who can tell them apart, very easy mistake to make.
You'd think even the average Scot could tell Meghan apart.
Thames Valley Police indicate at this stage they are not investigating a report that Prince Phillip bumped into a Sussex family in a corridor of Windsor Castle .....
Comments
A. Ability to “enhance” CV; and
B. Has womb and has used it.
The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo
Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance
One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants
And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go
As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
(from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
> On topic. That Jeremy Corbyn is not an election winning phenom is hard to argue with and I am not going to even try. However, with the implosion of the Cons, the return of Farage, and the likelihood that the next general election will happen with Brexit not delivered, my reading of the FPTP electoral calculus is that he has a greater than ever chance of becoming PM. It really does look on. There is a touch of the Chauncey Gardiners in how things are playing out for Jeremy. Atoms are colliding in just the precise way required. Number 10 beckons. It's written.
You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
> https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1126055388342886400
>
>
>
>
>
> Why not? Everyone else is.
>
> It would not massively surprise me if she were to win.
>
>
>
> Indeed, perhaps we would have been in a better position if she had won last time!
>
> A proven liar and thick as mince.
>
> It really is time for the Tories to wind themselves up before they do any more damage to the country.
unfortunately the LOTO alternative is even thicker and considerably worse.
The Cold War has been over for some time. Islamist terrorism has been - and continues to be - a menace and Pakistan is one of the countries which harbours it. It is not a country which ought to be lavished with foreign aid while behaving in an uncivilised way. If foreign aid is meant to be part of our soft power, what the hell are we getting from it re Pakistan?
I'm not sure that, for instance, stopping funding girls' education is going to have the effect you're hoping for.
> https://twitter.com/peston/status/1126069582555504640
I'm sure they can keep it going until the buffet arrives.
> https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1126055388342886400
>
>
>
>
>
> Why not? Everyone else is.
>
> It would not massively surprise me if she were to win.
It looks like David Davies's intervention to push Dominic Raab hasn't gained much traction, apart from getting Andrea Jenkyns on board....
> https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1126067028534747136
Reminds me of T Blair in the post-PM delusion stakes.
> British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
>
> Bob Dylan?
Apols. Gerry Rafferty
(EDIT: only kidding!)
> > @kinabalu said:
> > On topic. That Jeremy Corbyn is not an election winning phenom is hard to argue with and I am not going to even try. However, with the implosion of the Cons, the return of Farage, and the likelihood that the next general election will happen with Brexit not delivered, my reading of the FPTP electoral calculus is that he has a greater than ever chance of becoming PM. It really does look on. There is a touch of the Chauncey Gardiners in how things are playing out for Jeremy. Atoms are colliding in just the precise way required. Number 10 beckons. It's written.
>
> You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
As I recall it the big problem in the 70's was the oil price rise. That unsettled things dreadfully.
How much of or foreign aid is actually going to help girls’ education? And to what end? Girls are still being raped as a punishment for crimes committed by men. Little point changing girls’ expectations if the expectations of the men around them and the laws preventing them from living a full life haven’t changed.
.
>
> Or just get on a train to Madrid. Eurostar to Paris. Paris to Madrid.
>
> Liverpool to London first!
Mmm. Unless most of them live in London to start with. But hopefully not, given this is Liverpool not Man U.
So, every chance of an all English final in both the UCL and the Europa. That would be amazing.
And if it happens only the most clinical and heartless of pundits (thinking here of Alastair Meeks, David Herdson, people like that) will seek to deny the oh so obvious Brexit angle.
Spurs are currently punching above their weight thanks to the titan Pochettino but in many ways that's all rather endearing.
Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait.
That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep.
> On topic, with reference to Corbyn's serial loseriness, quiz question: which of Labour's post-war leaders made net gains in Westminster by-elections? Obviously, Corbyn (0 gains, 1 loss) isn't among them. It's a surprisingly short list.
Gaitskell and Blair.
>
> You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long.
Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer?
Or is it all just empty talk?
> There have been many terrific articles of late on pb.com. Mike Smithson nailed it (again) yesterday and this is very good by Alastair.
>
> Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait.
>
> That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep.
Well, maybe. But Blair in the 90s was able to hide from EU division by giving up on Euro membership. There's nowhere to hide now. And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore.
Perhaps someone like Clive Lewis could do a better job, but uniting the country to provide a convincing opposition might simply not be possible right now.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> >
> > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
>
> There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long.
>
> Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer?
>
> Or is it all just empty talk?
Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > >
> > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
> >
> > There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long.
> >
> > Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer?
> >
> > Or is it all just empty talk?
>
> Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help.
Which of his policies poll badly?
Utterly dire stuff again.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore.
>
That seems like an Argumentum ad Silencium to me. Just because the people aren't being offered it, doesn't mean it isn't popular.
And when they were offered it, just now, in the local Elections they seized it with alacrity. LibDems and Greens are doing brilliantly.
The centre is always where this country is at and where elections are won. It's wide open for the taking.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > There have been many terrific articles of late on pb.com. Mike Smithson nailed it (again) yesterday and this is very good by Alastair.
> >
> > Corbyn is, indeed, "complete shit." Just think, if the young Tony Blair was heading up Labour against the May fiasco I reckon Labour would be polling over 55% right now, with leads of 25% in the polls and a landslide of over 150 seat majority lying in wait.
> >
> > That's the measure of how utterly awful Corbyn-McDonnell are. Ask any Labour activist. They are pure poison on the doorstep.
>
> Well, maybe. But Blair in the 90s was able to hide from EU division by giving up on Euro membership. There's nowhere to hide now. And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore.
>
> Perhaps someone like Clive Lewis could do a better job, but uniting the country to provide a convincing opposition might simply not be possible right now.
The only people who were really fussed about EU membership in the 90's were the batshit crazies who have developed into the ERG and for a while the BNP.
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1126046967266779136
Oh wait, this was published a while ago. Election Maps waited until today to tweet for some reason
> British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
>
> Bob Dylan?
Understandable error. Bob uses the word 'joker' in his songs an awful lot. Clown and clowns feature too. Watching a Jesus drama on the TV the other day it also struck me how Dylan draws on biblical language, not the exact words but the tone and flavour of it.
> The only people who were really fussed about EU membership in the 90's were the batshit crazies who have developed into the ERG and for a while the BNP.
>
Exactly right. No one really cared about the EU. Okay, there were the occasional titters at the latest OTT health & safety moment, but for the most part we all got on with our lives.
Brexit was, is, and always has been all about the Conservative party civil war. They have dragged this country down because of it. Unforgivable.
> British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
>
> They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue
> The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo
> Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance
> One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants
> And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go
> As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
>
> (from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
>
> There must be some way out of here, though ?
Said the JOKER to the thief. See? Thing about jokers, Bob.
If it were just a Conservative split then we would've seen 28-32% or so backing Leave.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > And there's no evidence that his brand of centrist politics is that popular anymore.
> >
>
>
> That seems like an Argumentum ad Silencium to me. Just because the people aren't being offered it, doesn't mean it isn't popular.
>
> And when they were offered it, just now, in the local Elections they seized it with alacrity. LibDems and Greens are doing brilliantly.
>
> The centre is always where this country is at and where elections are won. It's wide open for the taking.
The Greens are not centrist. A centrist UK would not have voted for Brexit.
In 2006 the UK was reasonably content with the status quo. That is not the case any more. For all his faults Corbyn does at least offer a challenge to the status quo. A different Labour leader who did not challenge the status quo might manage to do worse than Corbyn.
> > @Nigelb said:
> > British politics is certainly in a terrible mess. In the (almost) words of Bob Dylan "Clowns to the left of me! jokers to the right! Here I am, stuck in the middle with CUK"
> >
> > They're selling postcards of the referendum, they're painting the passports blue
> > The commons are filled with remainers and May is in the poo
> > Here comes the brexit secretary, the EU has him in a trance
> > One hand is tied to the Irish border, the other is in his pants
> > And the ERG, they're restless, they need somewhere to go
> > As Leadsome and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
> >
> > (from Bob Dylan's Brexit Songbook: Leave, Lady Leave)
> >
> > There must be some way out of here, though ?
>
> Said the JOKER to the thief. See? Thing about jokers, Bob.
And clowns - always prepared to turn around to see their frowns.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/robert-halfon-does-mays-selfish-operation-care-at-all-about-the-partys-future.html
Actually I think it may be even worse than 1997 at this rate.
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1126086999243460608
Common sense
> Mr. Rose, you recall a majority of voters backed leaving the EU, right?
>
>
'Mr' ?!!
It was, as you know, a slender win. The country was clearly duped by leave lies and illegal activities. And there's plenty of evidence that the country is now pro Remain.
Incidentally, on that last point I'm very very very suspicious about assuming that the Farage rallies are indicative of the overall mood. It reminds me very much of the infamous 1936 US polling fiasco.
Remember, that there were 2.4 million respondents: a huge sample size, which led to the prediction that Alf Landon would beat Franklin Roosevelt 57% to 43%.
The actual result was Roosevelt winning by 62% to 37%
'In 1936, Literary Digest, a national magazine of the time, sent out 10
million "straw" ballots asking people to tell them who they planned on voting for in the 1936 presidential election. They recieved back 2.4 million ballots (not bad for a pre-internet time when polling was still in its infancy, but still only about a 25% return rate, which leaves the door open for voluntary response bias). They predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin Delanor Roosevelt 57% to 43%. As it turned out, Roosevelt won 62% to 37%.
There were two large problems:
First, the sample chosen was not representative of voters. Literary Digest used lists of phone numbers, drivers' registrations, and country club memberships to select its sample. But 1936 was the height of the
depression. At that time, phones, cars, and country clubs were more often available only to rich. The economy was the central campain issue of the election with Roosevelt advocating the New Deal that was attractive to lower income people, so the opinions of the rich and poor were bound to differ on this issue. As such, their sample turned out to be incredibly biased, and ultimately, useless.
Second, the sample chosen did indeed suffer from voluntary response bias. In Chicago, the Literary Digest used a systematic sampling technique. They asked every 3rd registered voter. The results still predicted that Landon would win, even though Roosevelt was the overwhelming favorite when the ballots came actually came in. This suggests that the people who
supported Roosevelt were less likely to respond to the survey, thus creating the nonresponse bias towards Landon winning.
The Literary Digest "lost face" and later went out of business.'
(Source Oxford Math Centre)
May wibbles about councillors in reply.
The mechanism is Article 50. There is nothing in the text that prevents the WA being agreed / ratified after the member has left: the timetable and the WA clauses are distinct and not inherently reliant on each other (except that you can leave early if a WA is already in place (!)
There's nothing in the manual for trousers that says "check your zip when you come out of the loo" either. The Withdrawal Agreement is an extension of existing EU things for around 21 months. The UK asked for it because UK triggered Article 50 then realised it couldn't get ready in time. When we leave the WA lapses by definition and any new treaty or agreements will have to be negotiated from scratch.
We've just had God knows how many years of arguments based on pure fictions. Can we at least, even if only amongst ourselves, stop tormenting ourselves and each other with myths and deal with the facts on the ground? This bloody Brexit is turning into the UK version of Vietnam in its colossal level of self-delusion...
> Ferry to Santander or Bilbao and onward by train or car.
Real fans would walk it the whole way, Liverpool to Madrid, wading through rivers and streams, swimming if necessary when faced with stretches of deep water.
And with that, I must be off.
> "We are heading towards a 1997-type defeat unless we make fundamental and radical changes to our Party machinery and to our policies and deliver, as instructed, a good Brexit."
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/robert-halfon-does-mays-selfish-operation-care-at-all-about-the-partys-future.html
>
> Actually I think it may be even worse than 1997 at this rate.
Not unless Labour get their act together. Which means ditching Corbyn and McDonnell.
> Jenkins being one of the ERG who engineered May being safe for a year no doubt.
Almost as bad as being one of the non-ERG who voted for her to be safe for a year
> "We are heading towards a 1997-type defeat unless we make fundamental and radical changes to our Party machinery and to our policies and deliver, as instructed, a good Brexit."
>
> https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/05/robert-halfon-does-mays-selfish-operation-care-at-all-about-the-partys-future.html
>
> Actually I think it may be even worse than 1997 at this rate.
Well they certainly won't be delivering a "good Brexit" because that is a contradiction in terms, it could only be a bad Brexit or a worse Brexit. But at the current rate of progress they won't be delivering any kind of Brexit at all.
> Jenkins call on May to go. At PMQs.
It will be hilarious when she loses her seat at the next GE
> > @pbr2013 said:
> > Ferry to Santander or Bilbao and onward by train or car.
>
> Real fans would walk it the whole way, Liverpool to Madrid, wading through rivers and streams, swimming if necessary when faced with stretches of deep water.
Surely real Liverpool fans would nick a car and joyride down there?
Sorry, appalling comment in bad taste. Still ...
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Jenkins call on May to go. At PMQs.
>
> It will be hilarious when she loses her seat at the next GE
I don't think TSE will be canvassing for her next time.
But she can still rely on Morris Dancer's vote!
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1126086999243460608
Can they sort it out before the Brexit Party select a candidate?
Time is already running short.
> Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself
>
> In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
Referred to Duchess of Sussex as Wessex
> > @malcolmg said:
> > Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself
> >
> > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
>
> Referred to Duchess of Sussex as Wessex
An innocent mistake. I've done worse. Far, far worse. And my Dad can never get the names of his sons right either.
Have you ever misspoken?
That means going to a border post and claiming asylum
" Rafferty's lyrics are a dismissive tale of a music industry cocktail party written and performed as a parody of Bob Dylan's paranoia (the vocal impression, subject & styling was so similar, listeners have wrongly attributed the song to Dylan since its release)"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuck_in_the_Middle_with_You#Overview
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> > > Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself
> > >
> > > In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
> >
> > Referred to Duchess of Sussex as Wessex
>
> An innocent mistake. I've done worse. Far, far worse. And my Dad can never get the names of his sons right either.
>
> Have you ever misspoken?
Of course we all err but his was unfortunate in view of the topical nature of the Duchess of Sussex
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Jenkins call on May to go. At PMQs.
> >
> > It will be hilarious when she loses her seat at the next GE
>
> I don't think TSE will be canvassing for her next time.
>
> But she can still rely on Morris Dancer's vote!
Hers is the type of seat that the Conservatives will likely hold.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1126086999243460608
>
> Can they sort it out before the Brexit Party select a candidate?
>
> Time is already running short.
Do you think they'll work out he should run under "Remain Alliance", or will he have "GREEN CUCKLD - TIG: The Independent Group #change.org" next to his name?
A couple of observations from further afield: Finland looks to be heading for a centre-left Government as a bloc of the centre and centre-left parties with 117 out of 200 seats are in negotiation and on June 5th Denmark goes to the polls with the centre-left bloc leading the centre-right bloc 54-46. The centre-right bloc is anchored by the Venstre (literally "Left" but more akin to a "Coalition" type party) and the Dansk Folkeparti (more to the right) which between them scored 40.6% in the last election but are now barely at 30% between them.
The Social Democrats are up slightly as are the Red/Green Alliance.
Reflecting more on the local elections, I predicted weeks ago the Independents would do well and whether it be the Andover Alliance or R4GW or Farnham Residents or whatever, they did well by being local and not being national. I've no doubt a number of Conservatives voters protested the national situation by voting for one of these Independent blocs but that in no way means these voters will desert the Conservatives at the next GE.
The question for these new local blocs is whether they want to emulate the Ashfield Independents and consider standing at a constituency level. Could an Independent candidate take Guildford - it's a big ask with the majority 17,000 or more but could such a candidate (with a Brexit Party spoiler in the mix too) win?
The Conservatives (and Labour too in many respects) face the pincer movement of LDs (in some places), Independents (in some places) and the BP (perhaps in all places).
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1125881542633508864
https://twitter.com/inductivestep/status/1125882396719689728
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1125883087919951878
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > >
> > > > You might well be right. Time to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Five years of Mr Thicky is enough to make this country a complete basket case. Those that remember the 1970s will be able to recall them as a mild precursor to what he will do to us.
> > >
> > > There is no need to be so spooked by a devolution of wealth and opportunity away from affluent people and places to those who and which have been neglected for so long.
> > >
> > > Isn't this what politicians on all sides have said that the Leave vote was all about? That these matters could be ignored no longer?
> > >
> > > Or is it all just empty talk?
> >
> > Identifying the problem is easy, finding the solution is much harder, most think Corbyn's answers are likely to be bad for not just the country but those he is trying to help.
>
> Which of his policies poll badly?
Apple pies for everyone normally polls quite well - got sfa to do with the point however.
> Ian Blackford makes a fool of himself
and the pope rumoured to be considering Catholicism.
>
> In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
Not ALL donkeys surely.
In fact, question for you. Very serious and sober one.
Looking at English MP politicians, any party, which one do you like the most? - i.e. a person who you see and listen to and say to yourself, "Ooo, I wish we had him or her up here in Scotland."
No doubt there's a few, but who is your favourite?
> In what way G, did he ask an intelligent question that the donkeys did not understand.
>
> He offered congratulations to the wrong Royal parents
>
> Well they are all so inbred who can tell them apart, very easy mistake to make.
You'd think even the average Scot could tell Meghan apart.
Developing story .....
Sure they save on three lost deposits, but they also reduce their combined spending limit...
https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1126058088228958208
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1126086999243460608
>
> Can they sort it out before the Brexit Party select a candidate?
>
> Time is already running short.
Not going to be of much use in 60% Leave Peterborough other than taking Labour votes.
Would be more effective in the European Parliament elections