> Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
Polling is quite fluid on the question. The Mori / Irish Times poll had a much higher number of don't knows.
Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK.
> @stodge said: > Evening all > > The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone). > > Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal. > > Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer. > > The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
Now the placard on the header makes sense. If the Brexit Party run George Galloway in Peterborough, then Nigel is the Anti-Christ and George is the Whore of Babylon. It's all so obvious now.
I'm working (God, when aren't I?) and as is my wonty wont I am listening to lectures on YouTube. Tonight's is "Westmoreland: The General Who Lost Vietnam", part of the U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center's "Perspectives in Military History" Lecture Series. It concerns General Westmoreland, a talented officer overpromoted into a situation he couldn't handle and who fell back on rote responses and rigged statistics, resulting in an utter tragedy. A lesson for our times, I think.
Now the placard on the header makes sense. If the Brexit Party run George Galloway in Peterborough, then Nigel is the Anti-Christ and George is the Whore of Babylon. It's all so obvious now.
If George Galloway is the Whore of Babylon, Babylon has bigger problems than I thought...
> Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
Polling is quite fluid on the question. The Mori / Irish Times poll had a much higher number of don't knows.
Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK.
Thought experiment. You could argue Alliance are better defenders of the Union than the DUP. By not having a defined position on the Constitution, Alliance de facto supports the status quo as long as the GFA is maintained and there is no Brexit.
By going all in for Brexit, the DUP push people towards a United Ireland, in this way killing the Union they profess to love.
But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > > > > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand > > > > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats. > > You know this is nonsense. There is nothing democratic about forcing people to eat something they don’t want any more.
It is not nonsense at all. Democracy depends on fulfilling the mandate given by the vote. If you hold votes and then ignore the outcome because it is 'too hard' or rather because you don't agree with it then that is not democracy.
> Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
Polling is quite fluid on the question. The Mori / Irish Times poll had a much higher number of don't knows.
Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK.
Thought experiment. You could argue Alliance are better defenders of the Union than the DUP. By not having a defined position on the Constitution, Alliance de facto supports the status quo as long as the GFA is maintained and there is no Brexit.
By going all in for Brexit, the DUP push people towards a United Ireland, in this way killing the Union they profess to love.
> @FF43 said: > > Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave. > > > > MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU. > > Polling is quite fluid on the question. The Mori / Irish Times poll had a much higher number of don't knows. > > Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK. > > > Thought experiment. You could argue Alliance are better defenders of the Union than the DUP. By not having a defined position on the Constitution, Alliance de facto supports the status quo as long as the GFA is maintained and there is no Brexit. > > By going all in for Brexit, the DUP push people towards a United Ireland, in this way killing the Union they profess to love.
As I have already pointed out to you it is not Brexit by itself that gives majority support for a United Ireland in Northern Ireland, only Brexit with No Deal. Had the DUP backed May's Deal that would not have threatened the Union as much as their current position of backing No Deal
Theresa May is awesome, never doubted her, she might give us another EU referendum conducted under AV.
Theresa May has held secret discussions over a three-way second referendum ahead of a crunch meeting with Labour this week to agree a cross-party Brexit deal.
The Prime Minister has carried out “scenario planning” with aides and ministers in case the Government cannot prevent a Parliamentary vote on a second referendum.
John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, said it “may well” be the case that any deal would have to be put to a second referendum, adding: “I think the Conservatives have to recognise that if a deal is going to go through there might be a large number of MPs who will want a public vote."
Mrs May and her advisers are understood to have 'war gamed' the possibility of giving voters a choice of her deal, no deal and remain, though Government sources insisted it would only become relevant if talks with Labour collapse and Parliament forces a vote on a second referendum.
I'm working (God, when aren't I?) and as is my wonty wont I am listening to lectures on YouTube. Tonight's is "Westmoreland: The General Who Lost Vietnam", part of the U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center's "Perspectives in Military History" Lecture Series. It concerns General Westmoreland, a talented officer overpromoted into a situation he couldn't handle and who fell back on rote responses and rigged statistics, resulting in an utter tragedy. A lesson for our times, I think.
That could be an epitaph for virtually the entire US Army from Washington onwards.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Dominic Raab’s campaign for the leadership role is fully up and running. You can’t fault his ambition though his judgement looks questionable.
But not as questionable as the judgement of his cheerleaders.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1. > > > > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections. > > > > In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties > > > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base > > ----------- > > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE. > > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures. > > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
Theresa May is awesome, never doubted her, she might give us another EU referendum conducted under AV.
Theresa May has held secret discussions over a three-way second referendum ahead of a crunch meeting with Labour this week to agree a cross-party Brexit deal.
The Prime Minister has carried out “scenario planning” with aides and ministers in case the Government cannot prevent a Parliamentary vote on a second referendum.
John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, said it “may well” be the case that any deal would have to be put to a second referendum, adding: “I think the Conservatives have to recognise that if a deal is going to go through there might be a large number of MPs who will want a public vote."
Mrs May and her advisers are understood to have 'war gamed' the possibility of giving voters a choice of her deal, no deal and remain, though Government sources insisted it would only become relevant if talks with Labour collapse and Parliament forces a vote on a second referendum.
It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1. > > > > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections. > > > > In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties > > > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base > > ----------- > > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE. > > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures. > > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
I mostly agree. People split their tickets in different types of elections.
> > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
> >
> > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
> But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer.
> It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
--------------------------------- The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation.
For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile.
It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'.
The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections.
The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances.
> @Recidivist said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1. > > > > > > > > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections. > > > > > > > > > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py? > > > > > > ----------- > > > > > > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE. > > > > > > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures. > > > > > > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will. > > > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014 > > Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer.
Parliament gave people a vote, the people voted, then completely ignored that result, that anger will certainly last until the next general election.
Leavers are waiting to exact their revenge, if we have not left the EU by the end of June the Brexit Party surge in the EU elections will be just the start
> @MikeSmithson said: > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> >
>
> > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> >
>
> > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
>
>
>
> It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
>
>
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
>
> Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer.
Parliament gave people a vote, the people voted, then completely ignored that result, that anger will certainly last until the next general election.
Leavers are waiting to exact their revenge, if we have not left the EU by the end of June the Brexit Party surge in the EU elections will be just the start
Well let's see. The Tories still have a big membership and an organisation on the ground. The Brexit Party don't even have members yet, and for all his talents Farage isn't a team player so might find it hard having an organisation. And if they have aspirations to replace the Tories they are going to have to trouble us with some policies at some point. And once you have policies you can't appeal to everyone.
> It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
> @HYUFD said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
Yes because it's unimplementable.
Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed.
Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve.
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
>
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
>
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
>
> That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
> @eek said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > Yes because it's unimplementable. > > Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed. > > Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve.
If remainers felt so strongly how come the LDs and Greens were the big winners on Thursday with the parties of Brexit, LAB and CON, the losers.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014 > > --------------------------------- > The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation. > > For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile. > > It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'. > > The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections. > > The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances. >
If even some Remainers voted Brexit Party and they won an SNP 2015 style win forget a Brexit Party majority or even a Brexit Party landslide, it would be a Brexit Party avalanche
> @HYUFD said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> @Recidivist said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > > > ----------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will. > > > > > > > > > > > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > > > > > > > > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014 > > > > > > Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer. > > > > Parliament gave people a vote, the people voted, then completely ignored that result, that anger will certainly last until the next general election. > > > > Leavers are waiting to exact their revenge, if we have not left the EU by the end of June the Brexit Party surge in the EU elections will be just the start > > Well let's see. The Tories still have a big membership and an organisation on the ground. The Brexit Party don't even have members yet, and for all his talents Farage isn't a team player so might find it hard having an organisation. And if they have aspirations to replace the Tories they are going to have to trouble us with some policies at some point. And once you have policies you can't appeal to everyone.
Until we leave the EU the Brexit Party don't need a single policy beyond leaving the EU to have Leavers flooding to them
> @Benpointer said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Annunziata is rumoured to be the BP candidate for Peterborough, though Barry Fry would make a good alternative. > > > > That'll get the gammons reaching for the Kleenex. > > > > (For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not referring to Barry Fry!) > > Who is Annunziata? > > Nancy to her friends.
Nobody calls her Nancy.
And I think I'm the only one to call her The Moggette.
> @Roger said: > Mrs May looks quite unwell. For her own sake I think she should call it a day. > > (By contrast Vince Cable looks ten years younger.) > >
I agree.
She needs to hand over, take a rest, and watch as a brexiteer PM makes an even worse job of leaving.. Cable has no cares as he retires with an excellent win
Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election.
If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
> @kle4 said: > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped? > > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press" > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
I believe we are in the period of EU election when broadcasting rules apply.
So can someone who knows more than me about these rules, explain why the BBC have just run a piece on the news about the EU elections which included a segment with BP and Farage?
This is a party who only formed about a month ago, with no EU election track record, no MPs and no local councillors.
> @HYUFD said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014 > > > > --------------------------------- > > The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation. > > > > For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile. > > > > It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'. > > > > The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections. > > > > The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances. > > > > If even some Remainers voted Brexit Party and they won an SNP 2015 style win forget a Brexit Party majority or even a Brexit Party landslide, it would be a Brexit Party avalanche
> @HYUFD said: > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
I'm sure there are some angry people. But for this to translate to serious GE numbers for Farage you need: 1) Lots of them 2) Them to weigh the EU way ahead of everything else
I don't see how you can reconcile these two assumptions with the fact that UKIP just scored a grand total of 31 council seats.
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
>
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
>
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
>
> That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election.
If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
In your opinion.
But stop trying to use the Euro election poll findings to predict a Westminster election that may still be 3 years off.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @eek said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > Yes because it's unimplementable. > > > > Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed. > > > > Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve. > > If remainers felt so strongly how come the LDs and Greens were the big winners on Thursday with the parties of Brexit, LAB and CON, the losers.
Lab and Con are not truly the parties of Brexit until we actually Brexit, in case you had not noticed almost 3 years after we voted to Leave the EU we are still in the EU.
The Brexit Party did not stand in the local elections either, many Leavers either stayed at home, spoiled their ballot papers or voted for Independents, the latter of whom made big gains at the Tories and Labour's expense e.g. in Bolsover.
A few Leavers even voted LD to mend their potholes, nationally however they will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
So basically Brexit Party might either get 1 seat or 394 seats. Well, that leaves plenty of space in these forecasts for the reality to slot into! :-D
No it doesn't. You've left out zero.
And 650. I'm fairly sure it'll get between 0 and 650 seats. Which I hope drives home the point that a prediction is only useful if a) it can be used for betting purposes and b) is in a form whereby the accuracy can be measured.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
OTOH, the Tories came first in seats and votes in both the 2009 Euros and the subsequent 2010 GE. The only time in the last 20 years that the Euro winners went on to win the GE.
So basically Brexit Party might either get 1 seat or 394 seats. Well, that leaves plenty of space in these forecasts for the reality to slot into! :-D
No it doesn't. You've left out zero.
And 650. I'm fairly sure it'll get between 0 and 650 seats. Which I hope drives home the point that a prediction is only useful if a) it can be used for betting purposes and b) is in a form whereby the accuracy can be measured.
Of course, this presupposes that they don't get a minus number.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5? > > > > That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat... > > > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base > > Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election. > > If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
How do you know apart from your "feeling" which happens to fit your own desire?
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > OTOH, the Tories came first in seats and votes in both the 2009 Euros and the subsequent 2010 GE. The only time in the last 20 years that the Euro winners went on to win the GE.
> @Floater said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @HYUFD said: > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU. > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014 > > I'm sure there are some angry people. But for this to translate to serious GE numbers for Farage you need: > 1) Lots of them > 2) Them to weigh the EU way ahead of everything else > > I don't see how you can reconcile these two assumptions with the fact that UKIP just scored a grand total of 31 council seats.
UKIP is now a far right party linked to Tommy Robinson, only 10 to 15% will vote for that and they stood in less than 20% of wards.
The Brexit Party represent the 52% of voters who voted Leave and whose vote Westminster has so far refused to respect
> @HYUFD said: > > @Floater said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB > > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they. > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised. > > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems?
Please don't read everything in the press and believe it.
To be honest a substantial figure who is not going to run as party leader in the Tories or Labour needs to address the Brexit agenda in the Tory press as it is selling its readership short. British politics has seen the press drive occasional flirtations with marginal figures in order to get an agenda higher up the order of priorities.
The current fixation with Farage is completely disproportionate to his and his new parties impact on national debate. Only fools are taken in by the Tory media narrative about its prospects at a GE.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Benpointer said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > > > If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5? > > > > > > That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat... > > > > > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base > > > > Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election. > > > > If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters > > How do you know apart from your "feeling" which happens to fit your own desire?
I voted Remain but I also respect democracy, at the moment it seems most MPs do not as we are still in the EU. That is just asking for a voter backlash and it will come until Brexit is delivered
Who'd have thought an SNP minority administration in 2007 would lead to the obliteration of Scottish Labour within 8 years and a virtual one party state in Scotland?
UKIP's first win was 2014. Eight years later is 2022.
If one party successfully cast itself as the best advocates and defenders for the nation against Westminster/Brussels big wins are clearly possible.
SNP in Scotland, Fidesz in Hungary, Lega Nord in Italy, Law and Justice in Poland.
> It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
> OTOH, the Tories came first in seats and votes in both the 2009 Euros and the subsequent 2010 GE. The only time in the last 20 years that the Euro winners went on to win the GE.
2009 was a very bad summer for Brown's LAB
I notice that the "swings" the GE winners obtained compared to their Euro performance where they came second is around the same (13-14%) since 1999:
1999 Labour (2nd) 26.3% 2001 Labour (win) 40.7% swing = 14.4%
2004 Labour (2nd) 21.9% 2005 Labour (win) 35.2% swing = 13.3%
> @thecommissioner said: > Who'd have thought an SNP minority administration in 2007 would lead to the obliteration of Scottish Labour within 8 years and a virtual one party state in Scotland? > > UKIP's first win was 2014. Eight years later is 2022. > > If one party successfully cast itself as the best advocates and defenders for the nation against Westminster/Brussels big wins are clearly possible. > > SNP in Scotland, Fidesz in Hungary, Lega Nord in Italy, Law and Justice in Poland.
Plus Trump in Washington, Bolsonaro in Brazil etc also won by casting themselves as against corrupt, out of touch elites. If Westminster continues to ignore the Brexit vote it is giving Farage the narrative he wants on a plate
----------------------------------- I am shocked I tell you.
Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Floater said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB > > > > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they. > > > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised. > > > > > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned > > That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems? > > I think we all need to call it a night.
Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs
> @The_Taxman said: > HYUFD - > > Please don't read everything in the press and believe it. > > To be honest a substantial figure who is not going to run as party leader in the Tories or Labour needs to address the Brexit agenda in the Tory press as it is selling its readership short. British politics has seen the press drive occasional flirtations with marginal figures in order to get an agenda higher up the order of priorities. > > The current fixation with Farage is completely disproportionate to his and his new parties impact on national debate. Only fools are taken in by the Tory media narrative about its prospects at a GE.
I don't need to read the press to find the anger of Leavers we are still in the EU, I found plenty of it canvassing estates in the local elections
> @kle4 said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped? > > > > > > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press" > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373 > > > > https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21 > > ----------------------------------- > I am shocked I tell you. > > Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point.
Except so far Deal plus Customs Union is closer to a majority amongst MPs than Deal plus confirmatory referendum as the indicative votes proved
I have to say if Brexit is going to happen, I definitely prefer the HYUFD alternate world version where Farage wins a majority and does it, and everyone can see how it goes.
If parties that used to be pro-remain are doing it its supporters will blame all the resulting problems on them being insufficiently true to the vision, whereas if Farage is in charge then they might a actually learn something.
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped? > > > > > > > > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press" > > > > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373 > > > > > > https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21 > > > > ----------------------------------- > > I am shocked I tell you. > > > > Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point. > > Except so far Deal plus Customs Union is closer to a majority amongst MPs than Deal plus confirmatory referendum as the indicative votes proved
Then it should not have taken this long to agree something.
Seriously, what are they talking about? I've seen various rehashes of past plans and so on, but it really feels like this could be hashed out pretty quickly, especially when deal plus CU did indeed get pretty close when it was up for an indicative vote.
100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
If rumours re Ms Rees-Mogg and Peterborough are true. Big if. That would be a terrible choice imho. It is a classic marginal seat in which BP would need to pull voters from both the big 2 to win, even if most Tories there voted Leave and most Labour Remain. The author of advice on how to profit from water shortages, sister of one of the Nation's most prominent right wingers, would be the perfect choice to solidify the creaking Labour vote. A local centrist would be much better. Teacher, businessman or the like from outside politics who could appeal to each. Not that I'm here to give Nigel advice.
> @HYUFD said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Floater said: > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > > > > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB > > > > > > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they. > > > > > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised. > > > > > > > > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned > > > > That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems? > > > > I think we all need to call it a night. > > Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs
Comments
> > @dodrade said:
>
> > I find the site much harder to read with the arrows rather than insets.
>
>
>
> Join the club.
>
> You can avoid them by using the Vanilla site:
> http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7573/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-nigel-farage-reportedly-looking-to-do-corbyn-s-dirty-work-and
+1
Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK.
> Evening all
>
> The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone).
>
> Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal.
>
> Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer.
>
> The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
Now the placard on the header makes sense. If the Brexit Party run George Galloway in Peterborough, then Nigel is the Anti-Christ and George is the Whore of Babylon. It's all so obvious now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LR-UJsYRc
> I find the site much harder to read with the arrows rather than insets.
It is because Vanilla support the Brexit Party. That Farage chap, his influence is everywhere.
Landing already engulfed in flames.
Like this
By going all in for Brexit, the DUP push people towards a United Ireland, in this way killing the Union they profess to love.
> Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
>
> The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
>
> In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
-----------
But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > > > >
> > > > > Well maybe you should
> > > >
> > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> > >
> > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
> >
> > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
>
> You know this is nonsense. There is nothing democratic about forcing people to eat something they don’t want any more.
It is not nonsense at all. Democracy depends on fulfilling the mandate given by the vote. If you hold votes and then ignore the outcome because it is 'too hard' or rather because you don't agree with it then that is not democracy.
> > Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
>
>
>
> MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
>
> Polling is quite fluid on the question. The Mori / Irish Times poll had a much higher number of don't knows.
>
> Nevertheless Brexit does appear to have a big effect on support for a United Ireland. The other big change is the Catholics swinging very heavily behind a UI since the Brexit referendum. Previously a large percentage were happy to be in the UK.
>
>
> Thought experiment. You could argue Alliance are better defenders of the Union than the DUP. By not having a defined position on the Constitution, Alliance de facto supports the status quo as long as the GFA is maintained and there is no Brexit.
>
> By going all in for Brexit, the DUP push people towards a United Ireland, in this way killing the Union they profess to love.
As I have already pointed out to you it is not Brexit by itself that gives majority support for a United Ireland in Northern Ireland, only Brexit with No Deal. Had the DUP backed May's Deal that would not have threatened the Union as much as their current position of backing No Deal
Theresa May has held secret discussions over a three-way second referendum ahead of a crunch meeting with Labour this week to agree a cross-party Brexit deal.
The Prime Minister has carried out “scenario planning” with aides and ministers in case the Government cannot prevent a Parliamentary vote on a second referendum.
John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, said it “may well” be the case that any deal would have to be put to a second referendum, adding: “I think the Conservatives have to recognise that if a deal is going to go through there might be a large number of MPs who will want a public vote."
Mrs May and her advisers are understood to have 'war gamed' the possibility of giving voters a choice of her deal, no deal and remain, though Government sources insisted it would only become relevant if talks with Labour collapse and Parliament forces a vote on a second referendum.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/05/theresa-may-war-games-second-referendum-questions-case-talks/
> Dominic Raab’s campaign for the leadership role is fully up and running. You can’t fault his ambition though his judgement looks questionable.
But not as questionable as the judgement of his cheerleaders.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
> >
> > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
> >
> > In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> -----------
>
> But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
I did say one player could run away with this...7-1 is an extraordinary domination if as seems likely Trump wins this final frame.
But Higgins might do a reverse ferret tomorrow.
Edit - ooops. Forgot it was nine frames!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
> >
> > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
> >
> > In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> -----------
>
> But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
I mostly agree. People split their tickets in different types of elections.
> It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
---------------------------------
The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation.
For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile.
It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'.
The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections.
The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances.
> Annunziata is rumoured to be the BP candidate for Peterborough, though Barry Fry would make a good alternative.
That'll get the gammons reaching for the Kleenex.
(For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not referring to Barry Fry!)
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
>
> > >
>
> > > The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
>
> > >
>
>
>
> > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?
>
> >
>
> > -----------
>
> >
>
> > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> >
>
> > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> >
>
> > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
>
>
>
> It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
>
>
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
>
> Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer.
Parliament gave people a vote, the people voted, then completely ignored that result, that anger will certainly last until the next general election.
Leavers are waiting to exact their revenge, if we have not left the EU by the end of June the Brexit Party surge in the EU elections will be just the start
> It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
... oh, not those sort of cheerleaders 😉
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
Yes because it's unimplementable.
Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed.
Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
>
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
>
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
>
> That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
No that cannot be right. Don't you know Hyufd expects Farage to be PM
What on earth is HYUFD taking these days?!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> >
> > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> >
> > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> Yes because it's unimplementable.
>
> Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed.
>
> Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve.
If remainers felt so strongly how come the LDs and Greens were the big winners on Thursday with the parties of Brexit, LAB and CON, the losers.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
So basically Brexit Party might either get 1 seat or 394 seats. Well, that leaves plenty of space in these forecasts for the reality to slot into! :-D
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> >
>
> > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> >
>
> > If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
>
> >
>
> > That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
>
> >
>
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
>
>
> No that cannot be right. Don't you know Hyufd expects Farage to be PM
>
> Good point.
>
> What on earth is HYUFD taking these days?!
I have no idea but he has gone from Boris being the brexit saviour to Farage, even to the point he suggests Farage could be PM
"Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
(By contrast Vince Cable looks ten years younger.)
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
> >
> > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
>
> ---------------------------------
> The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation.
>
> For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile.
>
> It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'.
>
> The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections.
>
> The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances.
>
If even some Remainers voted Brexit Party and they won an SNP 2015 style win forget a Brexit Party majority or even a Brexit Party landslide, it would be a Brexit Party avalanche
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> > @Recidivist said:
>
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
>
>
> >
>
> > > -----------
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > But it is just not going to happen. The Brexit Party may well get lots of votes - even above the 30% being quoted at the moment - in the Euro Elections but momentum or not they are not going to get anywhere near that - not even half of that I would suggest - at a GE.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The public are far more sophisticated than you seem to give them credit for and far more able to differentiate between elections in terms of who they want to vote for. A single issue party with, at best, dubious positions on many other aspects of politics that matter to people are not gong to end up winning most seats in Parliament. I would be absolutely staggered if they even got into double figures.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Outside of the Euros Farage has always flattered to deceive and always will.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
>
> >
>
> > Anger isn't an emotion that lasts though. And voting for the Brexit Party to give the Tories a kick might well quench it, giving the Conservatives a chance to rebuild over the summer.
>
>
>
> Parliament gave people a vote, the people voted, then completely ignored that result, that anger will certainly last until the next general election.
>
>
>
> Leavers are waiting to exact their revenge, if we have not left the EU by the end of June the Brexit Party surge in the EU elections will be just the start
>
> Well let's see. The Tories still have a big membership and an organisation on the ground. The Brexit Party don't even have members yet, and for all his talents Farage isn't a team player so might find it hard having an organisation. And if they have aspirations to replace the Tories they are going to have to trouble us with some policies at some point. And once you have policies you can't appeal to everyone.
Until we leave the EU the Brexit Party don't need a single policy beyond leaving the EU to have Leavers flooding to them
> > @thecommissioner said:
>
> > Annunziata is rumoured to be the BP candidate for Peterborough, though Barry Fry would make a good alternative.
>
>
>
> That'll get the gammons reaching for the Kleenex.
>
>
>
> (For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not referring to Barry Fry!)
>
> Who is Annunziata?
>
> Nancy to her friends.
Nobody calls her Nancy.
And I think I'm the only one to call her The Moggette.
> Mrs May looks quite unwell. For her own sake I think she should call it a day.
>
> (By contrast Vince Cable looks ten years younger.)
>
>
I agree.
She needs to hand over, take a rest, and watch as a brexiteer PM makes an even worse job of leaving.. Cable has no cares as he retires with an excellent win
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
>
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
>
>
> In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
>
> That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election.
If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
> When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped?
>
> "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press"
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21
So can someone who knows more than me about these rules, explain why the BBC have just run a piece on the news about the EU elections which included a segment with BP and Farage?
This is a party who only formed about a month ago, with no EU election track record, no MPs and no local councillors.
What the f!!!
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
> > >
> > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > The Scots did that knowing that the SNP controlled Holyrood and possessed Westminster representation.
> >
> > For the BP to do it, they essentially need a large scale defection to make the vote seem worthwhile.
> >
> > It also needs to be remembered that some who voted for the SNP didn't vote for independence/leave. They did, however, vote for a party that would 'stand up for Scotland'.
> >
> > The latter part is where people will be attracted to the BP should we remain in. The hesitant remainers wanting someone to stand up for them in Brussels is where the 50% would eventually arise in euro elections.
> >
> > The Italians are at about 70%. in similar circumstances.
> >
>
> If even some Remainers voted Brexit Party and they won an SNP 2015 style win forget a Brexit Party majority or even a Brexit Party landslide, it would be a Brexit Party avalanche
You are becoming a laughing stock
> It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
I'm sure there are some angry people. But for this to translate to serious GE numbers for Farage you need:
1) Lots of them
2) Them to weigh the EU way ahead of everything else
I don't see how you can reconcile these two assumptions with the fact that UKIP just scored a grand total of 31 council seats.
But stop trying to use the Euro election poll findings to predict a Westminster election that may still be 3 years off.
> > @eek said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > >
> > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > >
> > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> >
> > Yes because it's unimplementable.
> >
> > Well it can be implemented but I suspect your typical leaver will regret it in 3-5 years time as the unavoidable cuts are implemented after the tax base is destroyed.
> >
> > Now I'm not saying that things don't need to be solved, one chief cause of the referendum result was austerity but implementing things isn't going to make West Wales suddenly better off than Slovenia - that requires a government with ambition to make the poorer parts of the UK better off - and a no government cares about that at the moment as they have bigger poltical issues to solve.
>
> If remainers felt so strongly how come the LDs and Greens were the big winners on Thursday with the parties of Brexit, LAB and CON, the losers.
Lab and Con are not truly the parties of Brexit until we actually Brexit, in case you had not noticed almost 3 years after we voted to Leave the EU we are still in the EU.
The Brexit Party did not stand in the local elections either, many Leavers either stayed at home, spoiled their ballot papers or voted for Independents, the latter of whom made big gains at the Tories and Labour's expense e.g. in Bolsover.
A few Leavers even voted LD to mend their potholes, nationally however they will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> >
> > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> >
> > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
>
> In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
> I find the site much harder to read with the arrows rather than insets.
>
> God, me also.
How do you read them with the arrows? I cant work it out
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> >
> > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> >
> >
> >
> > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> >
> >
> >
> > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> >
> > If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
> >
> > That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election.
>
> If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
How do you know apart from your "feeling" which happens to fit your own desire?
> It's late, I am going to wish you all good night and leave you to HYUFD's rantings.
Goodnight Ben
Hyufd is living in his own world and adds to the gaiety of the site with some of his more ridiculous assumptions
And I too will bid everyone a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
> It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
> OTOH, the Tories came first in seats and votes in both the 2009 Euros and the subsequent 2010 GE. The only time in the last 20 years that the Euro winners went on to win the GE.
2009 was a very bad summer for Brown's LAB
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > >
> > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > >
> > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> >
> > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
>
> To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
> > @HYUFD said:
> > It may well happen. I have been canvassing on and off for over 20 years and I have never seen people as angry as I found Leave voters when canvassing for the recent local elections due to the fact we are still in the EU.
> >
> > If we are still in the EU by the next general election those Leave voters will surge to the Brexit Party much as Nationalists surged to the SNP in 2015 after indyref 2014
>
> I'm sure there are some angry people. But for this to translate to serious GE numbers for Farage you need:
> 1) Lots of them
> 2) Them to weigh the EU way ahead of everything else
>
> I don't see how you can reconcile these two assumptions with the fact that UKIP just scored a grand total of 31 council seats.
UKIP is now a far right party linked to Tommy Robinson, only 10 to 15% will vote for that and they stood in less than 20% of wards.
The Brexit Party represent the 52% of voters who voted Leave and whose vote Westminster has so far refused to respect
> > @Floater said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > > >
> > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > > >
> > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > >
> > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> >
> > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
>
> Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
>
>
> Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems?
I think we all need to call it a night.
Please don't read everything in the press and believe it.
To be honest a substantial figure who is not going to run as party leader in the Tories or Labour needs to address the Brexit agenda in the Tory press as it is selling its readership short. British politics has seen the press drive occasional flirtations with marginal figures in order to get an agenda higher up the order of priorities.
The current fixation with Farage is completely disproportionate to his and his new parties impact on national debate. Only fools are taken in by the Tory media narrative about its prospects at a GE.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125154656836116480
Yep you called it. Left to watch Line of Duty, and discovered I'd missed the snooker...8 in a row. Game over now for sure.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Benpointer said:
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > >
> > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > >
> > > If you're going to use Electoral Calculus for Westiminster predictions shouldn't you plug in the latest YouGov Westminster VI poll: Lab 30, Con 27, BP 14, LD 11, Grn 5?
> > >
> > > That gives Labour as largest party with 299 in a hung parliament. BP get 1 (yes one) seat...
> > >
> > > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=27&LAB=30&LIB=11&UKIP=4&Green=5&ChUK=3&Brexit=14&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> >
> > Irrelevant as Labour and the Tories are still promising we will have left the EU by the next general election.
> >
> > If we have not actually left the EU by the next general election European elections Brexit Party voters will turn into general election Brexit Party voters
>
> How do you know apart from your "feeling" which happens to fit your own desire?
I voted Remain but I also respect democracy, at the moment it seems most MPs do not as we are still in the EU. That is just asking for a voter backlash and it will come until Brexit is delivered
And that is what I wish you all now.
UKIP's first win was 2014. Eight years later is 2022.
If one party successfully cast itself as the best advocates and defenders for the nation against
Westminster/Brussels big wins are clearly possible.SNP in Scotland, Fidesz in Hungary, Lega Nord in Italy, Law and Justice in Poland.
1999 Labour (2nd) 26.3%
2001 Labour (win) 40.7%
swing = 14.4%
2004 Labour (2nd) 21.9%
2005 Labour (win) 35.2%
swing = 13.3%
2014 Tory (3rd) 23.1%
2015 Tory (win) 36.8%
swing = 13.7%
Obviously, this doesn't apply to 2009 v. 2010! But weirdly enough, Labour did gain 13.8% in 2010!
> Who'd have thought an SNP minority administration in 2007 would lead to the obliteration of Scottish Labour within 8 years and a virtual one party state in Scotland?
>
> UKIP's first win was 2014. Eight years later is 2022.
>
> If one party successfully cast itself as the best advocates and defenders for the nation against Westminster/Brussels big wins are clearly possible.
>
> SNP in Scotland, Fidesz in Hungary, Lega Nord in Italy, Law and Justice in Poland.
Plus Trump in Washington, Bolsonaro in Brazil etc also won by casting themselves as against corrupt, out of touch elites. If Westminster continues to ignore the Brexit vote it is giving Farage the narrative he wants on a plate
> > @kle4 said:
> > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped?
> >
> > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press"
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
>
> https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21
-----------------------------------
I am shocked I tell you.
Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Floater said:
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > > > >
> > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > > > >
> > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > > >
> > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> > >
> > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
> >
> > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
> >
> >
> > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
>
> That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems?
>
> I think we all need to call it a night.
Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs
> HYUFD -
>
> Please don't read everything in the press and believe it.
>
> To be honest a substantial figure who is not going to run as party leader in the Tories or Labour needs to address the Brexit agenda in the Tory press as it is selling its readership short. British politics has seen the press drive occasional flirtations with marginal figures in order to get an agenda higher up the order of priorities.
>
> The current fixation with Farage is completely disproportionate to his and his new parties impact on national debate. Only fools are taken in by the Tory media narrative about its prospects at a GE.
I don't need to read the press to find the anger of Leavers we are still in the EU, I found plenty of it canvassing estates in the local elections
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped?
> > >
> > > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press"
> > >
> > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
> >
> > https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21
>
> -----------------------------------
> I am shocked I tell you.
>
> Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point.
Except so far Deal plus Customs Union is closer to a majority amongst MPs than Deal plus confirmatory referendum as the indicative votes proved
If parties that used to be pro-remain are doing it its supporters will blame all the resulting problems on them being insufficiently true to the vision, whereas if Farage is in charge then they might a actually learn something.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125149867347718144
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > When will the ruse that the talks mean anything be dropped?
> > > >
> > > > "Labour's shadow chancellor says he does not trust Theresa May after details from cross-party talks on Brexit were leaked to the press"
> > > >
> > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48165373
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125145579707883520?s=21
> >
> > -----------------------------------
> > I am shocked I tell you.
> >
> > Honestly, the theoreticaly point of the talks seemed to be for the Tories to avoid a referendum somehow, since that might lead to remain, and for Labour to get a Labour Brexit. Getting the latter was not going to be simple even if possible, but if that and a referendum is the goal there really was no point.
>
> Except so far Deal plus Customs Union is closer to a majority amongst MPs than Deal plus confirmatory referendum as the indicative votes proved
Then it should not have taken this long to agree something.
Seriously, what are they talking about? I've seen various rehashes of past plans and so on, but it really feels like this could be hashed out pretty quickly, especially when deal plus CU did indeed get pretty close when it was up for an indicative vote.
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20
100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
That would be a terrible choice imho.
It is a classic marginal seat in which BP would need to pull voters from both the big 2 to win, even if most Tories there voted Leave and most Labour Remain. The author of advice on how to profit from water shortages, sister of one of the Nation's most prominent right wingers, would be the perfect choice to solidify the creaking Labour vote.
A local centrist would be much better. Teacher, businessman or the like from outside politics who could appeal to each.
Not that I'm here to give Nigel advice.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Floater said:
> > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > > > > >
> > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > > > >
> > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> > > >
> > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
> > >
> > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
> > >
> > >
> > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
> >
> > That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems?
> >
> > I think we all need to call it a night.
>
> Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs
Is there any evidence turn out was down?