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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat
This week’s Spectator reports that
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And this shows the difference between Trump and Farage.
Trump was able to partially take over the Republicans but realised the need to work with the rest of the party if he was going to achieve anything.
Farage doesn't want to achieve anything - the posturing isn't a means to an end for him it is the end.
> Why would Farage stand in a winnable seat? He might have to deliver on all the lies, ooops, promises he's made if he did.
He had stood in a winnable seat before - South Thanet.
Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP.
Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours.......
Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway.
And it wasn't as winnable as all that, btw.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > Why would Farage stand in a winnable seat? He might have to deliver on all the lies, ooops, promises he's made if he did.
> Has stoon in a winnable seat before - South Thanet.
>
> That was then.
>
> And it wasn't as winnable as all that, btw.
He got within 3000 votes, that's definitely winnable territory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNWElWsRWPE
Labour lost Remain voters without gaining Leavers. It's not so much a reaction against Brexit and certainly not a call to get Brexit done. Labour just doesn't have a compelling offer.
Excellent result for the Lib Dems. They didn't just get a load of new councillors. Usefully they are piled up in particular areas. Expect to see a slew of MPs at the next election, which should also help replenish their depleted MP gene pool for future leadership.
The Conservatives have lost their Costa Geriatrica strongholds like Bournemouth. Demographic changes as much as pissed off Remainers, I think.
Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity.
Strikes me that the person who gains most of this rumour spreading is Raab.
The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
> '<I> This would be an entirely destructive act by Farage. But that this idea is being discussed in his circle shows how serious they are about taking out the Tories. </I>'
>
> And this shows the difference between Trump and Farage.
>
> Trump was able to partially take over the Republicans but realised the need to work with the rest of the party if he was going to achieve anything.
>
> Farage doesn't want to achieve anything - the posturing isn't a means to an end for him it is the end.
Now if Farage stood against Remainer Jo Johnson in Orpington you might argue he was supporting the Leave cause.
> "It is clear that a substantial minority of Leavers who view a No Deal Brexit as the only true Brexit and that anyone who compromises is betraying Brexit."
>
> The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
>
> It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
A bonkers national purity test on things few people give a toss about.
I doubt any of the Farage's gang of posturers know anything about or have any dealings with exports / trade / customs etc.
> Why would Farage stand in a winnable seat? He might have to deliver on all the lies, ooops, promises he's made if he did.
Why? He'd only be one MP. Surely we can't expect ever MP to deliver their entire manifesto.
> So when do the 'OLE OUT' calls start ?
My manager of the season award after today! Phew... a crumb after yesterday.
A comment on not being interested in creating, at the end of the article. TSE's 'feeling' is justified I am sure, but much more widely than his comment on Farage and leavers generally. Remainers have been conspicuously failed to do better than hide behind a 'no change' agenda. Where are the bold, democratic Remainers with their implementable and creative plans for an EU shaped more democratically in line with UK wishes? Where is the lively debate among Remainers about their competing visions of the best sort of Europe for the future? all hiding behind a fearful 'no change' agenda.
Meanwhile the most creative thoughts actually on a real table anywhere about the future are those placed there by Mrs T May and her civil servants. If my maths is correct, on the second MV if all the Tories (including the absent one) had voted with her it would have won by about 1 vote and we would be making progress.
Finally, it is a little unfair to attack Farage for being destructive. A Tory 'leave' government could and should have brought him into the tent via the House of Lords ages ago. He may have been found wanting at that point, but it has never been tested.
> Sounds nonsense to me.
>
>
>
> Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP.
>
>
>
> Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours.......
>
>
>
> Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway.
>
> Thurrock would be a walkover for him.
>
> Thats what he thought before...
Farage stood in Thanet previously.
Though I don't think he wants to be in Parliament in any case.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > Why would Farage stand in a winnable seat? He might have to deliver on all the lies, ooops, promises he's made if he did.
>
>
>
> Why? He'd only be one MP. Surely we can't expect ever MP to deliver their entire manifesto.
>
> I don't expect any MP to deliver on any manifesto. It's just more or less his only selling point is he isn't one of the herd in the Commons. If he wins that goes. (That said, it doesn't seem to have hurt his fellow populist Corbyn.)
Wouldn't he just give anti-establishment speeches from within the HoC, like he has in the EU Parliament? No-one thinks Farage is a Eurocrat.
The Faragists have a fervent base, but one with a low ceiling, so not enough in a seat even with split opposition.
Tactically he should be looking to recruit Boris and Rees-Mogg, 30-50 MPs would follow and it would be game on for being PM.
> Very strange, would be hard to get 600 quality candidates to sign up if the leader sacrifices himself on a petty vendetta against a man who many of the 600 would probably admire.
>
> Tactically he should be looking to recruit Boris and Rees-Mogg, 30-50 MPs would follow and it would be game on for being PM.
Reports today that JRM council turned lib dem in big way as conservative voters switched because they reject all JRM stands for. Indeed suggestion he could lose his seat at the next GE
Nigel: "Yeah, we're OK with a deal"
Aaron: "But the Remainers want a deal too! They think No Deal is terrible"
Nigel "WE MUST STOP THEM! NO DEAL NOW!"
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > Very strange, would be hard to get 600 quality candidates to sign up if the leader sacrifices himself on a petty vendetta against a man who many of the 600 would probably admire.
> >
> > Tactically he should be looking to recruit Boris and Rees-Mogg, 30-50 MPs would follow and it would be game on for being PM.
>
> Reports today that JRM council turned lib dem in big way as conservative voters switched because they reject all JRM stands for. Indeed suggestion he could lose his seat at the next GE
Another reason why recruiting Boris and JRM could be possible, both are very vulnerable to a split Tory/Brexit vote and undoubtedly will have very high turnouts against them from remainers.
Is switching to a safer seat something Boris could get away with in the Tory party if he became leader?
John Higgins is doing rather well after the break. Three in a row and among the balls in frame 8.
And as I type that, he misses.
He couldn't possibly be a more awful candidate than Sion Simon.
> > @ydoethur said:
>
> > Why would Farage stand in a winnable seat? He might have to deliver on all the lies, ooops, promises he's made if he did.
>
>
>
> Why? He'd only be one MP. Surely we can't expect ever MP to deliver their entire manifesto.
>
> I don't expect any MP to deliver on any manifesto. It's just more or less his only selling point is he isn't one of the herd in the Commons. If he wins that goes. (That said, it doesn't seem to have hurt his fellow populist Corbyn.)
>
> Meanwhile on Planet Ydoethur, Caroline Lucas has just met the UK’s climate change target 20 years early.
>
>
>
> To be fair, time travel and saving the earth is his bread and butter.
>
> I got that reference...
>
> I'm gallifreyed I didn't get the original comment, which made no sense. But then that's true of most comments from that poster, so I won't worry about that.
>
> John Higgins is doing rather well after the break. Three in a row and among the balls in frame 8.
>
> And as I type that, he misses.
Reckon we are on for a long last session tomorrow night. No clear Favourite emerging thus far.
> conservative voters switched because they reject all JRM stands for.
>
> All of them ardent Brexiteers?
I think that is the myth that the conservative rebellion is from brexiteers. There are many thousands of conservative voters who reject the brexiteers approach and last thursday evidenced that throughout the south
TM is wrong when she says that the vote last thursday was a demand to get brexit over the line. It is more nuanced than that
https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-local-elections-results-full-2827470
That being said, they probably would have done if they'd actually bothered to stand.
(Not that I'm in Essex of course!)
> > @ydoethur said:
> > conservative voters switched because they reject all JRM stands for.
> >
> > All of them ardent Brexiteers?
>
> I think that is the myth that the conservative rebellion is from brexiteers. There are many thousands of conservative voters who reject the brexiteers approach and last thursday evidenced that throughout the south
>
> TM is wrong when she says that the vote last thursday was a demand to get brexit over the line. It is more nuanced than that
I voted LD because of Brexit in last weeks elections instead of Tory. I know several others who did the same! It was the first time some had ever voted anything but Tory. Once you have strayed once it is easier to do so again!
> "It is clear that a substantial minority of Leavers who view a No Deal Brexit as the only true Brexit and that anyone who compromises is betraying Brexit."
>
>
>
> The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
>
>
>
> It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
>
> It's a situation for which Remainers are largely responsible. As their fallback position, they made No Deal into the same boogeyman scenario they tried to make leaving into, to try and scare people into the softest boiled brexit possible, or just remaining. By doing so, they attracted just the same defiant debunking and repudiation of their theories from Leavers as they got the first time they tried it. In other words, they made No Deal a thing. Deeply stupid people.
What a ludicrous post . When the no deal fantasists started pushing that what were Remainers supposed to do , stand there and say nothing .
It’s no dealers that have further polarized the country . There is no mandate for no deal , Vote Leave promised a deal and an orderly exit, if people want no deal put it to a public vote .
(apologize in advance for any mistakes in summing up..)
Wakefield constituency
Lab 41.7
Con 31.5
UKIP 7.7
Greens 7.7
LD 7
Others 4.4
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
Lab 39.9
Con 17.4
Yorkshire First 13.8
LD 11.8
UKIP 9.4
Greens 1.1
Others 6.5
(generally Labour run close in many wards. Depending on the ward, either by Con, UKIP, LD, Yorkshire First or Ind. Ind and LD won one each)
Hemsworth
Lab 47.2
Con 23.7
LD 8.5
Yorkshire First 6.4
Greens 1.0
Others 13.2
Calder Valley
Con 32.7%
Lab 32.0%
LD 15.4%
Greens 11.6%
Others 8.3%
Halifax
Lab 45.1%
Con 27.6%
LD 12.7%
Greens 7.2%
Others 7.4%
Leigh constituency
Lab 38.4%
Con 21.3%
UKIP 18%
LD 1.4%
Ind/Others 20.9%
Makerfield constituency
Lab 40.2%
Con 12.7%
UKIP 11.1%
LD 4.4%
Greens 4%
Ind/Others 27.5%
Wigan constituency
Lab 47.6%
UKIP 13.8%
Con 11.9%
LD 6.4%
Greens 3.8%
Ind/Others 16.5%
Salford and Eccles
Lab 44.6
UKIP 16
Greens 12.1
Con 10.8
LD 7.9
Ind+Others 8.6%
Worsley and Eccles South (minus Walkden South, where one candidate died)
Lab 39.5%
Con 23.4%
UKIP 15.4%
Greens 10.4%
LD 1.4%
Ind/Others 9.9%
Rochdale parliamentary constituency
Lab 52.7%
LD 17.7%
Con 16.3%
UKIP 8.8%
Green 4.5%
Heywood and Middleton
Lab 45.6%
Con 27%
UKIP 21.8%
LD 3.6%
Greens 2%
Oldham West and Royton parliamentary constituency
Labour 45.8%
UKIP 10.7%
Con 10.4%
Greens 6.0%
LD 5.8%
Ind+Others 21.4%
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Lab 35.4%
LD 22%
Con 14.5%
UKIP 10.3%
Greens 1.4%
Ind+Others 16.4%
Leavers are going to destroy themselves and their cause and the UK is not going to leave the EU.
There's some really nasty anti Semitism coming from one of them.
> "It is clear that a substantial minority of Leavers who view a No Deal Brexit as the only true Brexit and that anyone who compromises is betraying Brexit."
>
>
>
> The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
>
>
>
> It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
>
> It's a situation for which Remainers are largely responsible. As their fallback position, they made No Deal into the same boogeyman scenario they tried to make leaving into, to try and scare people into the softest boiled brexit possible, or just remaining. By doing so, they attracted just the same defiant debunking and repudiation of their theories from Leavers as they got the first time they tried it. In other words, they made No Deal a thing. Deeply stupid people.
>
> Are you trying to tell me that Leavers were OK with a deal until they discovered Remainers wanted one too?
>
> Nigel: "Yeah, we're OK with a deal"
> Aaron: "But the Remainers want a deal too! They think No Deal is terrible"
> Nigel "WE MUST STOP THEM! NO DEAL NOW!"
>
> I'd never heard of Brexit without a withdrawal agreement until 'No deal' became a buzz phrase that everyone was squawking over and desperate to avoid at all costs. I doubt many had contemplated it.
We didn’t need to when we were promised that a great deal would be the easiest thing in the world.
Before the EU ref some were pushing Norway and other close relationships with the EU now these are classed as heresy and betrayal .
Farage and his bunch of cronies were always going to shout betrayal regardless of what was delivered .
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > "It is clear that a substantial minority of Leavers who view a No Deal Brexit as the only true Brexit and that anyone who compromises is betraying Brexit."
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
>
> >
>
> > It's a situation for which Remainers are largely responsible. As their fallback position, they made No Deal into the same boogeyman scenario they tried to make leaving into, to try and scare people into the softest boiled brexit possible, or just remaining. By doing so, they attracted just the same defiant debunking and repudiation of their theories from Leavers as they got the first time they tried it. In other words, they made No Deal a thing. Deeply stupid people.
>
>
>
> What a ludicrous post . When the no deal fantasists started pushing that what were Remainers supposed to do , stand there and say nothing .
>
>
>
> It’s no dealers that have further polarized the country . There is no mandate for no deal , Vote Leave promised a deal and an orderly exit, if people want no deal put it to a public vote .
>
> Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
The Tory press actually made the No Dealers. Basically, the press in this country dictates Brexit as they have at times everything else in the past. Why do you think the Brexit party has been projected in the way it has been? Simple the Tory press talking up the chances of the Brexit party and projecting a vote for it is a vote for No Deal Brexit. It is not rocket science...
> If Farage stands against Johnson it really will be a case of the revolution eating its own. Stalin vs Trotsky without, one hopes, the ice pick.
>
> Leavers are going to destroy themselves and their cause and the UK is not going to leave the EU.
Did they all privately hope for the 52/48% result to be 48/52%? Then they could moan about the EU until the end of their careers - like Bill Cash has already done for 30 years - and not have any responsibility.
> > @anothernick said:
> > If Farage stands against Johnson it really will be a case of the revolution eating its own. Stalin vs Trotsky without, one hopes, the ice pick.
> >
> > Leavers are going to destroy themselves and their cause and the UK is not going to leave the EU.
>
> Did they all privately hope for the 52/48% result to be 48/52%? Then they could moan about the EU until the end of their careers - like Bill Cash has already done for 30 years - and not have any responsibility.
Yes I think many of them probably did, Farage and Johnson among them.
Turns out it's a nice pitch to bowl on if your name is Kemar Roach or Shannon Gabriel.
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @anothernick said:
> > > If Farage stands against Johnson it really will be a case of the revolution eating its own. Stalin vs Trotsky without, one hopes, the ice pick.
> > >
> > > Leavers are going to destroy themselves and their cause and the UK is not going to leave the EU.
> >
> > Did they all privately hope for the 52/48% result to be 48/52%? Then they could moan about the EU until the end of their careers - like Bill Cash has already done for 30 years - and not have any responsibility.
>
> Yes I think many of them probably did, Farage and Johnson among them.
I just don't buy this. Farage has been campaigning for years to leave the EU. The idea he would actually want to lose the referendum is laughable.
Thinks.
Ah-ha!
"'Remain and Complain' is a terrible idea! It will make your head fall off! We must not insult the Brussels Beaurocracy! We must not under any circumstances stay in the EU to bring it down from the inside! That would be terrible! Especially if we did it for five more years!"
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > "It is clear that a substantial minority of Leavers who view a No Deal Brexit as the only true Brexit and that anyone who compromises is betraying Brexit."
> >
> >
> >
> > The fact that this statement seems true shows how mad the whole Brexit debate has become. Barely a handful of people would have thought that before the 2016 vote.
> >
> >
> >
> > It is now some kind of bonkers national purity test.
> >
> > It's a situation for which Remainers are largely responsible. As their fallback position, they made No Deal into the same boogeyman scenario they tried to make leaving into, to try and scare people into the softest boiled brexit possible, or just remaining. By doing so, they attracted just the same defiant debunking and repudiation of their theories from Leavers as they got the first time they tried it. In other words, they made No Deal a thing. Deeply stupid people.
>
> What a ludicrous post . When the no deal fantasists started pushing that what were Remainers supposed to do , stand there and say nothing .
>
> It’s no dealers that have further polarized the country . There is no mandate for no deal , Vote Leave promised a deal and an orderly exit, if people want no deal put it to a public vote .
Agreed
Labour came within 700 odd votes of winning Uxbridge in 1997.
> If Farage stands against Johnson it really will be a case of the revolution eating its own. Stalin vs Trotsky without, one hopes, the ice pick.
>
>
>
> Leavers are going to destroy themselves and their cause and the UK is not going to leave the EU.
>
> Sounds good.
Becoming increasingly likely
What's interesting is how good the Windies' fielding has been. They have stopped well, caught well and have been intelligently placed. That's not been a feature of their game for years. A sign of more dedication?
And Sussex had an even more disastrous time.
But Somerset were just embarrassing. Were they Surrey in disguise?
And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> Uxbridge has actually been trending away from Labour since the late 1950s despite their good performance there in 2017.
>
> Sounds like fake news to me.
>
> Labour came within 700 odd votes of winning Uxbridge in 1997.
Uxbridge was Labour - held until falling to the Tories in 1959. They failed to regain the seat in 1964 and only narrowly did so in the 1966 landslide. The Tories easily recaptured the seat in 1970 and held the seat thereafter - including 1997.
> Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
>
> And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
The MEPs will create ructions in Brussels and Strasbourg which will be widely reported, and there will be reactions from Verhoffstadt and the new masters in the Berlaymont which will also be widely reported.
@johnhendry73
5h5 hours ago
Is it true?
I'm hearing rumours today that Macron is on the verge of resigning.
Limited reports that French Media have been told to clear their network schedules at 1900 CET.
If true, It looks like that #giletjaunes may have have prevailed
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> >
> > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
>
> Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
Well maybe you should