> @edmundintokyo said: > I have to say if Brexit is going to happen, I definitely prefer the HYUFD alternate world version where Farage wins a majority and does it, and everyone can see how it goes. > > If parties that used to be pro-remain are doing it its supporters will blame all the resulting problems on them being insufficiently true to the vision, whereas if Farage is in charge then they might a actually learn something.
Wouldn't hold my breath. Nigel would be a quisling and traitor for not constructing Nirvana pretty soon enough. And we'd be on to the next in line on the more extreme Right.
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Floater said: > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented > > > > > > > > > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB > > > > > > > > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they. > > > > > > > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised. > > > > > > > > > > > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned > > > > > > That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems? > > > > > > I think we all need to call it a night. > > > > Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs > > Is there any evidence turn out was down?
Amongst Leave voters certainly and in Epping Forest most wards had turnout under 30% on Thursday
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20 > > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board. > > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit. > > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
> It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
That’s demonstrably false.
Diehard Remainers coined the “gammon” insult entirely because Leavers of a certain demographic were so often photographed puce with rage. Or, if you like, “anger”.
> @anothernick said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20 > > > > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board. > > > > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit. > > > > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge. > > The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist. ------------------------------------------------------------ Not quite true - there's plenty of common ground to find, but it is not in the political interests/ability of the sides to reach it.
> @anothernick said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20 > > > > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board. > > > > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit. > > > > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge. > > The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
Deal plus Customs Union was only 3 votes off a majority in the indicative votes and May has already said further indicative votes will be held if talks on the Deal fail.
Of course the Brady amendment achieved a majority for May's Deal minus the backstop in the Commons, if May or a successor could persuade the EU to replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border that could pass the Commons. There have been rumours May will put forward her Deal minus the backstop in the hope that it will pass and she can then show the EU how to complete the Brexit process in an orderly fashion
> @El_Capitano said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel. > > That’s demonstrably false. > > Diehard Remainers coined the “gammon” insult entirely because Leavers of a certain demographic were so often photographed puce with rage. Or, if you like, “anger”.
It is not just gammons annoyed we are still in the EU, if only gammons had voted for Brexit Leave would never have won the referendum
> @kle4 said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20 > > > > > > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board. > > > > > > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit. > > > > > > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge. > > > > The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist. > ------------------------------------------------------------ > Not quite true - there's plenty of common ground to find, but it is not in the political interests/ability of the sides to reach it.
> @HYUFD said: > It is not just gammons annoyed we are still in the EU, if only gammons had voted for Brexit Leave would never have won the referendum
This is of course true, but where I think you're failing to make your case is that you're assuming that at least a supermajority of the people who voted Leave are like the angry Leave voters you're meeting in Epping: They don't just support Leave on balance, it's overwhelmingly the thing they care about most.
This is definitely not *obviously* true, and there's very little support for it in recent election data (although as you say that could be down to the lack of a non-nazi brexit option). Even the EU election polling maxes out at about 30%, and that's an election with "EU" on the tin, and absolutely no need to consider any other issue except sending a message. So if you want everyone else on the site to stop staring at you as if you're nuts, you really need to make the argument not just for why Leave voters want to leave, but for why leaving is all they care about.
Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
While it's true London has Corbyn's 'Best PM' Score (29 - vs ±20% or lower in rGB), with 47% of Londoners 'Not Sure' and 20% opting for Mrs May I'd say 'loved' would be pushing it.
Boeing engineers identified a fault with a pilot warning system on its 737 MAX aircraft in 2017, a year before the deadly Lion Air crash, the company said Sunday.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Dominic Raab’s campaign for the leadership role is fully up and running. You can’t fault his ambition though his judgement looks questionable. > > Dominic Gyor, surely
Nicely obscure reference... I guess it was an Orbán renewal programme... Although I thought he was supposed to be Dutch not Hungarian.
Just dropping in to say all my Labour voting friends seem to be planning to vote Lib Dem in the Euros.
Some never liked Corbyn but voted Labour anyway in 2017 to give May a bloody nose. But now they actively detest Corbyn.
A small demographic, sure, but another straw in the wind.
My small demographic is of much the same mind, but are switching Green. (We are near Brighton so the Greens fit the bill a bit better for us. I think it would be Lib Dem otherwise.)
Annunziata is rumoured to be the BP candidate for Peterborough, though Barry Fry would make a good alternative.
Wasn't George Galloway standing for this election, and he's now a brexit party supporter. He's a good Farage-like headline getter so maybe they should be going with him. Peterborough doesn't really seem like an Annunziata type of place.
Comments
> Joe Biden as the elderly Captain America.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought that.
> I have to say if Brexit is going to happen, I definitely prefer the HYUFD alternate world version where Farage wins a majority and does it, and everyone can see how it goes.
>
> If parties that used to be pro-remain are doing it its supporters will blame all the resulting problems on them being insufficiently true to the vision, whereas if Farage is in charge then they might a actually learn something.
Wouldn't hold my breath. Nigel would be a quisling and traitor for not constructing Nirvana pretty soon enough. And we'd be on to the next in line on the more extreme Right.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Floater said:
> > > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > > > > > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > In 2015 Cameron promised a referendum if he got a majority then delivered it. The difference now is the result has not been implemented
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In Bedford, which voted Leave in the referendum, where I live the LDs gained six seats and the Greens two on Thursday. The losers were the pro-Brexit parties of CON and LAB
> > > > >
> > > > > To be fair - neither of those parties appear to be overly pro brexit do they.
> > > >
> > > > Exactly, if they were we would have left the EU at the end of March as they promised.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Labour and the Tories were punished on Thursday because they have not delivered Brexit not because they are pro Brexit as far as Leavers are concerned
> > >
> > > That's your explanation of the Tories losing hundreds of seats to the LibDems?
> > >
> > > I think we all need to call it a night.
> >
> > Plenty of Leaver Tories voted for Independents or stayed at home, that would have helped produce LD gains from the Tories even if Tories did not directly switch to the LDs
>
> Is there any evidence turn out was down?
Amongst Leave voters certainly and in Epping Forest most wards had turnout under 30% on Thursday
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20
>
> 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
>
> But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
>
> Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
Diehard Remainers coined the “gammon” insult entirely because Leavers of a certain demographic were so often photographed puce with rage. Or, if you like, “anger”.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20
> >
> > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
> >
> > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
> >
> > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
>
> The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
------------------------------------------------------------
Not quite true - there's plenty of common ground to find, but it is not in the political interests/ability of the sides to reach it.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20
> >
> > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
> >
> > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
> >
> > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
>
> The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
Deal plus Customs Union was only 3 votes off a majority in the indicative votes and May has already said further indicative votes will be held if talks on the Deal fail.
Of course the Brady amendment achieved a majority for May's Deal minus the backstop in the Commons, if May or a successor could persuade the EU to replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border that could pass the Commons. There have been rumours May will put forward her Deal minus the backstop in the hope that it will pass and she can then show the EU how to complete the Brexit process in an orderly fashion
Some never liked Corbyn but voted Labour anyway in 2017 to give May a bloody nose. But now they actively detest Corbyn.
A small demographic, sure, but another straw in the wind.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > It is complete bollocks to take a European Parliament voting intentions poll and apply it to a general election. Go look at what happened in 2015. This is so tedious
>
>
>
> No it isn't, I am afraid diehard Remainers have no comprehension of the anger most Leavers currently feel.
>
> That’s demonstrably false.
>
> Diehard Remainers coined the “gammon” insult entirely because Leavers of a certain demographic were so often photographed puce with rage. Or, if you like, “anger”.
It is not just gammons annoyed we are still in the EU, if only gammons had voted for Brexit Leave would never have won the referendum
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1125152753360224256?s=20
> > >
> > > 100 rebels would not stop it if indeed Labour were on board.
> > >
> > > But really what a bloody stupid headline. The Tories on their own cannot get Brexit. The DUP won't back anything that May can provide them. Someone else is needed to get Brexit.
> > >
> > > Still, with Boris and most of his colleagues having backed May's deal in the end, it at least negates one attack, which would be that those crying the loudest about the possibility of 'caving in' to Labour would also be those who prevented anything else passing. Boris et al can at least defend themselves on that charge.
> >
> > The chances of a cross-party deal are minimal, less than 5% IMO. Neither May nor Corbyn are strong enough to impose what would undoubtedly be an unpopular compromise on their parties.The talks are a charade, the interlocutors are pretending to be able to find common ground in the full knowledge that such ground does not exist.
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> Not quite true - there's plenty of common ground to find, but it is not in the political interests/ability of the sides to reach it.
That's the point.
> It is not just gammons annoyed we are still in the EU, if only gammons had voted for Brexit Leave would never have won the referendum
This is of course true, but where I think you're failing to make your case is that you're assuming that at least a supermajority of the people who voted Leave are like the angry Leave voters you're meeting in Epping: They don't just support Leave on balance, it's overwhelmingly the thing they care about most.
This is definitely not *obviously* true, and there's very little support for it in recent election data (although as you say that could be down to the lack of a non-nazi brexit option). Even the EU election polling maxes out at about 30%, and that's an election with "EU" on the tin, and absolutely no need to consider any other issue except sending a message. So if you want everyone else on the site to stop staring at you as if you're nuts, you really need to make the argument not just for why Leave voters want to leave, but for why leaving is all they care about.
https://www.france24.com/en/20190506-boeing-knew-737-max-safety-system-glitch-year-before-deadly-crash
> Dominic Raab’s campaign for the leadership role is fully up and running. You can’t fault his ambition though his judgement looks questionable.
>
> Dominic Gyor, surely
Nicely obscure reference... I guess it was an Orbán renewal programme... Although I thought he was supposed to be Dutch not Hungarian.