> @TheScreamingEagles said: > Uxbridge has actually been trending away from Labour since the late 1950s despite their good performance there in 2017. > > Sounds like fake news to me. > > Labour came within 700 odd votes of winning Uxbridge in 1997.
Uxbridge is not about to embrace Corbyn.
An area of deep conservative middle class. Borders Hilligdon you know!
However Uxbridge could use a little bit of attention. The idea that towns and cities other than London are feeling the pinch can be dispelled. In the London area there are places such a Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Ealing, Hayes, Northolt, Harrow, Wembley, Hounslow, all with great history and all failing a little bit.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
UK MEPs have zero power. HM Government whether it is the current one or an alternative i.e. Labour + SNP + LD or something else have the power to execute Brexit or not have a Brexit.
Looking at the thread I would say that some people prefer opposition to power. Certainly I prefer being opposed to something rather than blindly following one ill advised policy after another. Governments always make mistakes and instigate unpopular policies on the public. It is this reason why we have a political cycle of decay and regeneration.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > Well maybe you should
Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > Well maybe you should > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
Did you vote in the recent elections just out of interest?
Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
That's a good point. It is an interesting thought experiment - what happens when the UK MEPs turn up. Do they take full part in the activities of the parliament? The Greens and the Lib Dems of course would. It is hard to see Labour ones not doing so. How do the Conservatives not join in too if they do. And the Brexit Party will presumably sit around boozing and fighting like their UKIP predecessors did.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > Well maybe you should > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
Mr Tyndall
I think I recall you rather despairing of democracy recently - entirely understandably so. Are you back in the democracy fold?
> @Recidivist said: > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > That's a good point. It is an interesting thought experiment - what happens when the UK MEPs turn up. Do they take full part in the activities of the parliament? The Greens and the Lib Dems of course would. It is hard to see Labour ones not doing so. How do the Conservatives not join in too if they do. And the Brexit Party will presumably sit around boozing and fighting like their UKIP predecessors did.
The Brexit party will be maximising their expenses claims. After all they have a champion as their leader who has been noted for doing exactly this. What they should be doing of course is working with their colleagues from other countries to get maximum value for our taxpayers. Funny how this concept seems to by-pass those with the most entrenched hostility to the EU...
> @ydoethur said: > Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity. > > The whole point about the Alliance is that it takes no position on union with Britain or with Ireland, focusing instead on internal matters within Northern Ireland.
The combined Nationalist/Republican vote has also declined markedly since 2010.
You certainly can't assume that Alliance/Green Party voters in North Down, East Belfast, or Antrim should be added to the Nationalist/Republican tally.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
True fact:
If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack. > > True fact: > > If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement. > >
> > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
>
> True fact:
>
> If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack. > > > > > > True fact: > > > > > > If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement. > > > > > > > > > > There are other sorts of facts? > > Alternative facts.
Has rcs gone all 'alternative' then? I'd historically had him as sound.
> Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity.
>
> The whole point about the Alliance is that it takes no position on union with Britain or with Ireland, focusing instead on internal matters within Northern Ireland.
The combined Nationalist/Republican vote has also declined markedly since 2010.
You certainly can't assume that Alliance/Green Party voters in North Down, East Belfast, or Antrim should be added to the Nationalist/Republican tally.
What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
> @kinabalu said: > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
> > > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
>
> >
>
> > True fact:
>
> >
>
> > If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> There are other sorts of facts?
>
> Alternative facts.
Has rcs gone all 'alternative' then? I'd historically had him as sound.
Robert maybe trolling us.
Absolute shocking that the site management trolls PB readers.
> > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
>
> True fact:
>
> If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
>
There are other sorts of facts?
You are clearly not part of the zeitgeist in our Post-Truth world.
Facts aren’t true if they’re racist or sexist or some other -ist or upset someone or are offensive or inconvenient or embarrassing.
We are all - some of us, anyway, I’m not part of any zeitgeist - Pontius Pilates, muttering: “What is truth?”
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > Well maybe you should > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > I cannot believe Arsenal are about to the deny us the comedy of Spurs spending a billion quid on a new stadium and playing Europa league football.
I wonder what first attracted these two racists and bigots to Nigel Farage?
There's some really nasty anti Semitism coming from one of them.
Perhaps they had no choice. I mean, we all know how serious the bigger parties are about stamping out anti-Semit...ahh.
In all the furore about anti-semitism within Labour, we should remember that the far right is capable of some pretty revolting anti-semitism of its own and this can often lead to violence against Jews. See, for instance, the attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue and the Florida synagogue last week.
Far-right semitism should be called out just as vigorously as when Labour does it.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
I think that quite likely actually. The longer we don't leave the harder it will become to do so.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @kinabalu said: > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved. > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories .
Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit .
On topic - what exactly would be Farage's justification for standing against Johnson? I am sure that were he to become prime minister he would shortly be discovered to be insufficiently Brexit for the Brexiters - as would anyone else who was charged with actually doing anything - but for the moment he doesn't appear to have let the cause down in any way that merits political assassination.
I wonder what first attracted these two racists and bigots to Nigel Farage?
There's some really nasty anti Semitism coming from one of them.
Perhaps they had no choice. I mean, we all know how serious the bigger parties are about stamping out anti-Semit...ahh.
In all the furore about anti-semitism within Labour, we should remember that the far right is capable of some pretty revolting anti-semitism of its own and this can often lead to violence against Jews. See, for instance, the attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue and the Florida synagogue last week.
Far-right semitism should be called out just as vigorously as when Labour does it.
> @nico67 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > > > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved. > > > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn > > Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories . > > Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit . >
If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote
Serious question. What would stop PM Boris moving to a rock solid blue constituency in the event of an election? Assuming a vacancy can be engineered...
What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > > > > > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved. > > > > > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn > > > > Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories . > > > > Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit . > > > > If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote
I think it’s impossible to beat the BP but what is possible is to kick Labour hard . I’m done with Labour until Corbyn goes .
> @Freggles said: > Serious question. What would stop PM Boris moving to a rock solid blue constituency in the event of an election? Assuming a vacancy can be engineered...
> @kle4 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > I think that quite likely actually. The longer we don't leave the harder it will become to do so.
Plausible ways to leave:
Some form of Mays deal/Mays deal plus CU - she will try everything she can for as long as she can to get it through parliament, if nothing happens with Corbyn perhaps free votes on binding indicative votes has a chance. If it doesnt happen before October this route looks less likely. Damascus moment from ERG after they learn to count - unlikely We get kicked out by EU - personally think this very unlikely but others differ New Tory PM resells Mays deal as better Brexit and can take ERG with him without losing centrists - looks very tricky, maybe Boris can pull it off New Tory PM goes for hard Brexit - will have a battle with parliament which they will lose Referendum win General Election win
If there is no progress from the talks with Labour then Brexit will probably need another referendum or GE win to happen.
> @Freggles said: > Serious question. What would stop PM Boris moving to a rock solid blue constituency in the event of an election? Assuming a vacancy can be engineered...
He does not seem keen on loyalty so guess this would be his preferred option. He might even want to stand in several seats at once and pick the most convenient one with the best chance of success......
Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
It's possible. I'm less critical than most about Theresa May because Brexit has turned broadly as I expected it to. However the process was designed (by the EU) that we should get out first before discovering just how crap it will be. Thanks to May's prevarications people have had time to work out that it really isn't going to be good, from whatever perspective they are coming from. So Brexit gets more difficult to do.
> @ydoethur said: > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
And 44% supported Brexit in Northern Ireland. Some of them were Nationalists, or supporters of People before Profit, but many were Unionists, and someone has to represent them.
Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
It's possible. I'm less critical than most about Theresa May because Brexit has turned broadly as I expected it to. However the process was designed (by the EU) that we should get out first before discovering just how crap it will be. Thanks to May's prevarications people have had time to work out that it really isn't going to be good, from whatever perspective they are coming from. So Brexit gets more difficult to do.
FWIW I still think leaving is more likely than not, but it will be debilitating. It certainly won't be a case of getting out and moving on.
> @nico67 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > > > > > > > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved. > > > > > > > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn > > > > > > Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories . > > > > > > Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit . > > > > > > > If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote > > I think it’s impossible to beat the BP but what is possible is to kick Labour hard . I’m done with Labour until Corbyn goes .
_________________________________________
I was done with it by the time of Jacques Delors!
Even Jon Lansman, Founder of Momentum is pro-EU. I think he's probably typical of the Labour 'left' as opposed to 'merely' its centre-left.
The Green Party have been claiming that a new member joins them every 3 minutes which if true is 150,000/year and may include some from Labour. The JC fan club must have been distraught to find out his real attitude to EU membership, rather than stressing what EU membership can do to help the workers as Timmermans is currently doing in his campaign to be Head of the Commission.
They then spotted perhaps that the Green Party is solidly pro-EU and has rather more progressive environmental policies than Labour. As far as I can see, all parties bar the Tories have more progressive environmental policies.
Maybe he's shy. Or he has other plans. Or maybe he just doesn't like them. Maybe he thinks they're a security risk.
Every now and then I utterly despair. I like Tim Shipman (I bought two of his books!) but this "be my friend otherwise I'll fuck you up" comment speaks very poorly of him.
> @Cyclefree said: > https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125067524897419264 > > > > I wonder what first attracted these two racists and bigots to Nigel Farage? > > There's some really nasty anti Semitism coming from one of them. > > Perhaps they had no choice. I mean, we all know how serious the bigger parties are about stamping out anti-Semit...ahh. > > In all the furore about anti-semitism within Labour, we should remember that the far right is capable of some pretty revolting anti-semitism of its own and this can often lead to violence against Jews. See, for instance, the attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue and the Florida synagogue last week. > > Far-right semitism should be called out just as vigorously as when Labour does it.
All types of racism should be called out, regardless of who does it.
> @radsatser said: > I don't know who is dafter, the author of this piece of fairy tale thinking, or those on here giving it the credibility it does not deserve by analysing it. > > Farage runs rings round the political class and the media on strategy, and has done so for at least the last 15 years. This is the second piece of stupidity over the last couple of days, with the Independent asking if he is a coward for not standing in the Peterborough by election. > > Farage is now in control of the chessboard, and every move by the political establishment will be considered against how it might impact on The Brexit Party. > > The game is no afoot.
It would be utterly daft for several reasons for Farage to seek to ensure that Johnson loses his seat to a Remainer. However, it is not daft for Farage to promote the idea that he might stand against Johnson, in order to get some leverage over Johnson. Hence Farage needed to find a naive journalist willing to run a speculative story to the effect that he was considering standing in Uxbridge, and the author of that Spectator piece fitted the bill.
The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
It may be worth considering that from the perspective of an arch federalist like Macron or Verhofstadt.
They are fairly sure to find their 'centrist' 2014 EU parliament has been somewhat displaced by a more polarised 2019 one in just three weeks' time.
It will have a much larger contingent of hostile, anti-EU representation, even without us. These non-UK eurosceptics might not want to leave, but they don't want what has been on offer for a decade or two. There is a strong theme of no further expansion, no more integration and general negativity towards immigration throughout the EU.
Adding the British to the problems they can certainly expect with the Hungarians, Poles and Italians might not be regarded as wise by the empire builders.
There may well be forces within the EU who may well want shot of us, and who may see our presence within Brussels as an obstacle to be removed and an opportunity to be seized.
What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
> @kinabalu said: > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley. > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
Corbyn may be extremely popular in inner London, (outside the wealthiest bits of Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Wandsworth) but Corbyn is not extremely popular in the outer suburbs of London, particularly the Leave voting outer suburbs of London like Hillingdon where Boris' seat of Uxbridge is. Indeed Uxbridge is 83rd on the Labour target list so even if Labour got an overall majority (which the polls and the local elections show Corbyn is still a long way from) the Tories could still hold Uxbridge
What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
So - people who vote for a party whose policy is that sovereignty and religion are secondary considerations, find them secondary considerations, and those who identify as Unionists vote for parties wish to stay in the union with Great Britain?
> @thecommissioner said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > It may be worth considering that from the perspective of an arch federalist like Macron or Verhofstadt. > > They are fairly sure to find their 'centrist' 2014 EU parliament has been somewhat displaced by a more polarised 2019 one in just three weeks' time. > > It will have a much larger contingent of hostile, anti-EU representation, even without us. These non-UK eurosceptics might not want to leave, but they don't want what has been on offer for a decade or two. There is a strong theme of no further expansion, no more integration and general negativity towards immigration throughout the EU. > > Adding the British to the problems they can certainly expect with the Hungarians, Poles and Italians might not be regarded as wise by the empire builders. > > There may well be forces within the EU who may well want shot of us, and who may see our presence within Brussels as an obstacle to be removed and an opportunity to be seized.
Very bad things are heading their way and that's one reason why we should hurry up and leave.
We'll support them of course, but we'll choose to do so rather than being obliged to do so.
The bizarre unhelpfulness of the French need not detain anyone.
> @isam said: > > @Foxy said: > > > Sounds nonsense to me. > > > > > > > > > > > > Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP. > > > > > > > > > > > > Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours....... > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway. > > > > > > Thurrock would be a walkover for him. > > > > > > Thats what he thought before... > > > > Farage stood in Thanet previously. > > > > Though I don't think he wants to be in Parliament in any case. > > My mistake, though worth noting sweeping LD gains in Essex in the Locals. > > How did they do in Thurrock? > > One of the rare spots in Essex with no LD gains. > > No LD gains will do 👍🏻 > > In fact, Chelmsford aside, there were very few Lib Dem gains in Essex > > https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-local-elections-results-full-2827470
The LDs gained 1 district council seat in Epping Forest and 2 town council seats in Epping
> @FF43 said: > Late thoughts on the local elections from former thread: > > Labour lost Remain voters without gaining Leavers. It's not so much a reaction against Brexit and certainly not a call to get Brexit done. Labour just doesn't have a compelling offer. > > Excellent result for the Lib Dems. They didn't just get a load of new councillors. Usefully they are piled up in particular areas. Expect to see a slew of MPs at the next election, which should also help replenish their depleted MP gene pool for future leadership. > > The Conservatives have lost their Costa Geriatrica strongholds like Bournemouth. Demographic changes as much as pissed off Remainers, I think. > > Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity.
The Alliance are neither Nationalist nor Unionist just pro GFA and anti hard border in Ireland
What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
So - people who vote for a party whose policy is that sovereignty and religion are secondary considerations, find them secondary considerations, and those who identify as Unionists vote for parties wish to stay in the union with Great Britain?
When you get confronted with an ballot you make your choice whether you think the issue is secondary or not.
The evidence, such as it is, is that supporters of non aligned parties will plump for a United Ireland depending on what happens with Brexit. So I guess it does mean that constitutional question is secondary in a literal sense.
> @FF43 said: > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)? > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
> @HYUFD said: > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway. > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave. But not against those who voted against Leaving? Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose. They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
> @HYUFD said: > > @isam said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > Sounds nonsense to me. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours....... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway. > > > > > > > > > > Thurrock would be a walkover for him. > > > > > > > > > > Thats what he thought before... > > > > > > > > Farage stood in Thanet previously. > > > > > > > > Though I don't think he wants to be in Parliament in any case. > > > > My mistake, though worth noting sweeping LD gains in Essex in the Locals. > > > > How did they do in Thurrock? > > > > One of the rare spots in Essex with no LD gains. > > > > No LD gains will do 👍🏻 > > > > In fact, Chelmsford aside, there were very few Lib Dem gains in Essex > > > > https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-local-elections-results-full-2827470 > > The LDs gained 1 district council seat in Epping Forest and 2 town council seats in Epping
The LDs also gained 4 seats in Brentwood, 2 in Southend and 1 in Tendring
Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
I think it will be quite the opposite of what you say. The MEPs will create ructions in Brussels and Strasbourg which will be widely reported, and there will be reactions from Verhoffstadt and the new masters in the Berlaymont which will also be widely reported.
I don't think that they will be any more numerous, boorish and obnoxious than the ones elected as UKIP.
> What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
> This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
>
> Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
>
> I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand > > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Democracy did not end the day after the referendum. Things have moved on, minds have been changed, new facts have come to light, not least the fact that leavers have no agreed plan for leaving. Democracy, like Brexit, is a process, not an event.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand > > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Who said it is in the past. I still support TM deal and want it passing. But if brexiteers stop it then I will do everything to prevent a no deal outcome.
Accusation by brexiters that opposition to their madcap no deal brexit is undemocratic is pure nonsense
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway. > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge > > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave. > But not against those who voted against Leaving? > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose. > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
> @SouthamObserver said: > Am a huge fan of SkyBet’s cashout. It’s allowed me to break-even on my Tottenham choke bets and put £40 on Arsenal to finish top 4 at 200-1. Why not? > > What an unbelievable day.
> The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
>
> However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
But not against those who voted against Leaving?
Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
Indeed the Brexit Party is not only the No Deal Brexit Party, but also the No Plan Brexit Party.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand > > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Stuff and nonsense. If one side is saying: let the people have a vote about something, and the other says they must on no account be allowed to vote on that thing, it really doesn't take a Vernon Bogdanor to discern which party is on the side of democracy. I suspect that you don't actually understand your own argument: you are, or should be, claiming that the rule against a second vote is a *necessary limitation* of the principle of direct democracy. You might have a (very weak) point there, though you seem incapable of articulating it, and incapable of addressing the point that notable direct democracies like ancient Athens and modern Switzerland have been OK with re-votes; in the first case, simply because the electorate has changd its mind literally overnight, in the latter case because of manifest di8shonesty on the part of one campaign.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway. > > > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge > > > > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave. > > But not against those who voted against Leaving? > > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose. > > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party. > > Indeed the Brexit Party is not only the No Deal Brexit Party, but also the No Plan Brexit Party.
Competing with the Monster Raving Loony Party !!!!!!
> @FF43 said: > > @FF43 said: > > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > > > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > > > > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > > > > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)? > > > > > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances). > > > > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided > > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland.
Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway. > > > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge > > > > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave. > > But not against those who voted against Leaving? > > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose. > > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party. > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated.
This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election...
> @HYUFD said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > > > > > > > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > > > > > > > > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > > > > > > > > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)? > > > > > > > > > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances). > > > > > > > > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided > > > > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll) > > Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland. > > > Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
Plenty of people voted Alliance, Green, or Independent in local elections, who'd vote for Lady Hermon, or UUP, at Parliamentary level.
> @HYUFD said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > > > > > > > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > > > > > > > > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > > > > > > > > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)? > > > > > > > > > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances). > > > > > > > > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided > > > > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll) > > Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland. > > > Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Plenty of people voted Alliance, Green, or Independent in local elections, who'd vote for Lady Hermon, or UUP, at Parliamentary level. > > In Fermanagh & Omagh, one councillor was elected under the "Cross-Community Labour Alternative" label.
Very left wing, neutral on the Border, pro-Brexit, and gained from Sinn Fein.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave. > > > > > > > > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM > > > > > > > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there. > > > > > > > > Well maybe you should > > > > > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently. > > > > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand > > It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
You know this is nonsense. There is nothing democratic about forcing people to eat something they don’t want any more.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for thered anyway. > > > > > > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge > > > > > > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave. > > > But not against those who voted against Leaving? > > > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose. > > > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party. > > > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in > > I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated. > > This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election... >
Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU for much longer as it will in the European elections. In that scenario 30% of the vote could give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under FPTP but 30% of the vote would not give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under AV or PR
> Am a huge fan of SkyBet’s cashout. It’s allowed me to break-even on my Tottenham choke bets and put £40 on Arsenal to finish top 4 at 200-1. Why not?
> @HYUFD said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > > > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for thered anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in > > > > I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated. > > > > This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election... > > > > Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU for much longer as it will in the European elections. In that scenario 30% of the vote could give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under FPTP but 30% of the vote would not give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under AV or PR
I am sorry I just don't agree with you. For instance the LD got 25% and 57 seats in 2010 and the Tories and Labour were 36 and 29. The LD were starting off with 62 seats from the election before (2005) and even led the polls at one stage in the closing days of that election. Your commentary puzzles me as it flies in the face of BRITISH FPTP elections when talking about the Brexit party which has zero seats and no party in each seat at the next election.
> @FF43 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @FF43 said: > > > > @FF43 said: > > > > > > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances). > > > > > > > > > > > > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided > > > > > > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll) > > > > Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland. > > > > > > Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead > > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018 > > Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @The_Taxman said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @dixiedean said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course). > > > > > > > > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in > > > > > > I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated. > > > > > > This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this TP election... > > > > > > > Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU under AV or PR > > I am sorry I just don't agree with you. For instance the LD got 25% and 57 seats in 2010 and the Tories and Labour were 36 and 29. The LD were starting off with 62 seats from the election before (2005) and even led the polls at one stage in the closing days of that election. Your commentary puzzles me as it flies in the face of BRITISH FPTP elections when talking about the Brexit party which has zero seats and no party in each seat at the next election.
Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties
The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone).
Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal.
Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer.
The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
> @stodge said: > Evening all > > The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone). > > Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal. > > Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer. > > The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
If the Brexit Party take Peterborough off Labour in the by election it will frighten the life out of Labour MPs in Leave seats and might be enough to get them to finally vote for the Withdrawal Agreement
Comments
Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
> Uxbridge has actually been trending away from Labour since the late 1950s despite their good performance there in 2017.
>
> Sounds like fake news to me.
>
> Labour came within 700 odd votes of winning Uxbridge in 1997.
Uxbridge is not about to embrace Corbyn.
An area of deep conservative middle class. Borders Hilligdon you know!
However Uxbridge could use a little bit of attention. The idea that towns and cities other than London are feeling the pinch can be dispelled. In the London area there are places such a Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Ealing, Hayes, Northolt, Harrow, Wembley, Hounslow, all with great history and all failing a little bit.
> Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
>
> And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
UK MEPs have zero power. HM Government whether it is the current one or an alternative i.e. Labour + SNP + LD or something else have the power to execute Brexit or not have a Brexit.
Looking at the thread I would say that some people prefer opposition to power. Certainly I prefer being opposed to something rather than blindly following one ill advised policy after another. Governments always make mistakes and instigate unpopular policies on the public. It is this reason why we have a political cycle of decay and regeneration.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > >
> > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> >
> > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
>
> Well maybe you should
Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > >
> > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > >
> > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> >
> > Well maybe you should
>
> Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
Did you vote in the recent elections just out of interest?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > >
> > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > >
> > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> >
> > Well maybe you should
>
> Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
Mr Tyndall
I think I recall you rather despairing of democracy recently - entirely understandably so. Are you back in the democracy fold?
> Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
>
>
>
> And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
>
> That's a good point. It is an interesting thought experiment - what happens when the UK MEPs turn up. Do they take full part in the activities of the parliament? The Greens and the Lib Dems of course would. It is hard to see Labour ones not doing so. How do the Conservatives not join in too if they do. And the Brexit Party will presumably sit around boozing and fighting like their UKIP predecessors did.
The Brexit party will be maximising their expenses claims. After all they have a champion as their leader who has been noted for doing exactly this. What they should be doing of course is working with their colleagues from other countries to get maximum value for our taxpayers. Funny how this concept seems to by-pass those with the most entrenched hostility to the EU...
> Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity.
>
> The whole point about the Alliance is that it takes no position on union with Britain or with Ireland, focusing instead on internal matters within Northern Ireland.
The combined Nationalist/Republican vote has also declined markedly since 2010.
You certainly can't assume that Alliance/Green Party voters in North Down, East Belfast, or Antrim should be added to the Nationalist/Republican tally.
> So what's the opposite of St Totteringham's Day?
Not St Totterigham's Day.
> Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
True fact:
If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
>
> True fact:
>
> If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
>
There are other sorts of facts?
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > > Remainers made No dealers. They created the No deal scenario, because once again, they thought the tactic of yelling at people that they didn't understand the terrible fate that awaited them was a good one, they just hadn't yelled loud enough the last time. Once they created the scenario, it inevitably came under attack.
>
> >
>
> > True fact:
>
> >
>
> > If it wasn't for Dominic Grieve voting against it, Mark Francois and Nadine Dorries would have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> There are other sorts of facts?
>
> Alternative facts.
Has rcs gone all 'alternative' then? I'd historically had him as sound.
https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
> Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
>
> Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
Absolute shocking that the site management trolls PB readers.
Facts aren’t true if they’re racist or sexist or some other -ist or upset someone or are offensive or inconvenient or embarrassing.
We are all - some of us, anyway, I’m not part of any zeitgeist - Pontius Pilates, muttering: “What is truth?”
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > >
> > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > >
> > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> >
> > Well maybe you should
>
> Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
> So Arsenal and United fail to get in top four
YAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> I cannot believe Arsenal are about to the deny us the comedy of Spurs spending a billion quid on a new stadium and playing Europa league football.
YAY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > So what's the opposite of St Totteringham's Day?
>
> Not St Totterigham's Day.
>
>
St Goners Day
Far-right semitism should be called out just as vigorously as when Labour does it.
> Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
>
> And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
I think that quite likely actually. The longer we don't leave the harder it will become to do so.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
> >
> > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
>
> He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories .
Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit .
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
> > >
> > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
> >
> > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
>
> Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories .
>
> Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit .
>
If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
> > > >
> > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
> > >
> > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
> >
> > Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories .
> >
> > Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit .
> >
>
> If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote
I think it’s impossible to beat the BP but what is possible is to kick Labour hard . I’m done with Labour until Corbyn goes .
> Serious question. What would stop PM Boris moving to a rock solid blue constituency in the event of an election? Assuming a vacancy can be engineered...
Nothing, but he has such a constituency anyway.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1125080543278841856
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> >
> > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
>
> I think that quite likely actually. The longer we don't leave the harder it will become to do so.
Plausible ways to leave:
Some form of Mays deal/Mays deal plus CU - she will try everything she can for as long as she can to get it through parliament, if nothing happens with Corbyn perhaps free votes on binding indicative votes has a chance. If it doesnt happen before October this route looks less likely.
Damascus moment from ERG after they learn to count - unlikely
We get kicked out by EU - personally think this very unlikely but others differ
New Tory PM resells Mays deal as better Brexit and can take ERG with him without losing centrists - looks very tricky, maybe Boris can pull it off
New Tory PM goes for hard Brexit - will have a battle with parliament which they will lose
Referendum win
General Election win
If there is no progress from the talks with Labour then Brexit will probably need another referendum or GE win to happen.
> Serious question. What would stop PM Boris moving to a rock solid blue constituency in the event of an election? Assuming a vacancy can be engineered...
He does not seem keen on loyalty so guess this would be his preferred option. He might even want to stand in several seats at once and pick the most convenient one with the best chance of success......
> What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
>
> https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
>
> This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
>
> Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
And 44% supported Brexit in Northern Ireland. Some of them were Nationalists, or supporters of People before Profit, but many were Unionists, and someone has to represent them.
> Tim Shipman continues his vendetta against Mark Sedwill.
>
> https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1125080543278841856
Bizarre
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
> > > > >
> > > > > Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
> > > >
> > > > He is very much on the decline including in parts of London. Good job the locals were not in London as the lib dems would have created mayhem for Corbyn
> > >
> > > Agreed , it would have seen a big backlash against Labour for their Brexit fence sitting . Labour are deluded if they think Remainers will forgive them if they bail out the Tories .
> > >
> > > Remainers need to send out a clear message in the Euros to Labour , vote Change or Lib Dem or Green . A vote for Labour is a vote for Brexit .
> > >
> >
> > If remainers have sense they should coalesce around the lib dems rather than split the remain vote
>
> I think it’s impossible to beat the BP but what is possible is to kick Labour hard . I’m done with Labour until Corbyn goes .
_________________________________________
I was done with it by the time of Jacques Delors!
Even Jon Lansman, Founder of Momentum is pro-EU. I think he's probably typical of the Labour 'left' as opposed to 'merely' its centre-left.
The Green Party have been claiming that a new member joins them every 3 minutes which if true is 150,000/year and may include some from Labour. The JC fan club must have been distraught to find out his real attitude to EU membership, rather than stressing what EU membership can do to help the workers as Timmermans is currently doing in his campaign to be Head of the Commission.
They then spotted perhaps that the Green Party is solidly pro-EU and has rather more progressive environmental policies than Labour. As far as I can see, all parties bar the Tories have more progressive environmental policies.
Every now and then I utterly despair. I like Tim Shipman (I bought two of his books!) but this "be my friend otherwise I'll fuck you up" comment speaks very poorly of him.
> https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1125067524897419264
>
>
>
> I wonder what first attracted these two racists and bigots to Nigel Farage?
>
> There's some really nasty anti Semitism coming from one of them.
>
> Perhaps they had no choice. I mean, we all know how serious the bigger parties are about stamping out anti-Semit...ahh.
>
> In all the furore about anti-semitism within Labour, we should remember that the far right is capable of some pretty revolting anti-semitism of its own and this can often lead to violence against Jews. See, for instance, the attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue and the Florida synagogue last week.
>
> Far-right semitism should be called out just as vigorously as when Labour does it.
All types of racism should be called out, regardless of who does it.
Both in Lewisham
Evelyn ward
Lab 52.7 (-2 compared to 2018 locals)
Greens 22 (+5.7)
Con 7.2 (-2.3)
LD 6.3 (-3.5)
Lewisham People Before Profit 4.7 (+4.7)
UKIP 4.4 (+4.4)
The second was in Whitefoot ward
Lab 53.6 (-11.2)
LD 21 (+10.9)
Con 12.8 (-3.3)
Lewisham People Before Profit 8.9 (+8.9)
> I don't know who is dafter, the author of this piece of fairy tale thinking, or those on here giving it the credibility it does not deserve by analysing it.
>
> Farage runs rings round the political class and the media on strategy, and has done so for at least the last 15 years. This is the second piece of stupidity over the last couple of days, with the Independent asking if he is a coward for not standing in the Peterborough by election.
>
> Farage is now in control of the chessboard, and every move by the political establishment will be considered against how it might impact on The Brexit Party.
>
> The game is no afoot.
It would be utterly daft for several reasons for Farage to seek to ensure that Johnson loses his seat to a Remainer. However, it is not daft for Farage to promote the idea that he might stand against Johnson, in order to get some leverage over Johnson. Hence Farage needed to find a naive journalist willing to run a speculative story to the effect that he was considering standing in Uxbridge, and the author of that Spectator piece fitted the bill.
However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
> Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
>
> And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
It may be worth considering that from the perspective of an arch federalist like Macron or Verhofstadt.
They are fairly sure to find their 'centrist' 2014 EU parliament has been somewhat displaced by a more polarised 2019 one in just three weeks' time.
It will have a much larger contingent of hostile, anti-EU representation, even without us. These non-UK eurosceptics might not want to leave, but they don't want what has been on offer for a decade or two. There is a strong theme of no further expansion, no more integration and general negativity towards immigration throughout the EU.
Adding the British to the problems they can certainly expect with the Hungarians, Poles and Italians might not be regarded as wise by the empire builders.
There may well be forces within the EU who may well want shot of us, and who may see our presence within Brussels as an obstacle to be removed and an opportunity to be seized.
> Fascinating header, I must say. But IMO Labour will take out Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson without any help from Arthur Daley.
>
> Jeremy Corbyn is extremely popular in London. I would almost say loved.
Corbyn may be extremely popular in inner London, (outside the wealthiest bits of Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Wandsworth) but Corbyn is not extremely popular in the outer suburbs of London, particularly the Leave voting outer suburbs of London like Hillingdon where Boris' seat of Uxbridge is. Indeed Uxbridge is 83rd on the Labour target list so even if Labour got an overall majority (which the polls and the local elections show Corbyn is still a long way from) the Tories could still hold Uxbridge
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Russian Aeroflot plane makes emergency landing in Moscow
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48171392
What an unbelievable day.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> >
> > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
>
> It may be worth considering that from the perspective of an arch federalist like Macron or Verhofstadt.
>
> They are fairly sure to find their 'centrist' 2014 EU parliament has been somewhat displaced by a more polarised 2019 one in just three weeks' time.
>
> It will have a much larger contingent of hostile, anti-EU representation, even without us. These non-UK eurosceptics might not want to leave, but they don't want what has been on offer for a decade or two. There is a strong theme of no further expansion, no more integration and general negativity towards immigration throughout the EU.
>
> Adding the British to the problems they can certainly expect with the Hungarians, Poles and Italians might not be regarded as wise by the empire builders.
>
> There may well be forces within the EU who may well want shot of us, and who may see our presence within Brussels as an obstacle to be removed and an opportunity to be seized.
Very bad things are heading their way and that's one reason why we should hurry up and leave.
We'll support them of course, but we'll choose to do so rather than being obliged to do so.
The bizarre unhelpfulness of the French need not detain anyone.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > Sounds nonsense to me.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours.......
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway.
>
> >
>
> > Thurrock would be a walkover for him.
>
> >
>
> > Thats what he thought before...
>
>
>
> Farage stood in Thanet previously.
>
>
>
> Though I don't think he wants to be in Parliament in any case.
>
> My mistake, though worth noting sweeping LD gains in Essex in the Locals.
>
> How did they do in Thurrock?
>
> One of the rare spots in Essex with no LD gains.
>
> No LD gains will do 👍🏻
>
> In fact, Chelmsford aside, there were very few Lib Dem gains in Essex
>
> https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-local-elections-results-full-2827470
The LDs gained 1 district council seat in Epping Forest and 2 town council seats in Epping
> Late thoughts on the local elections from former thread:
>
> Labour lost Remain voters without gaining Leavers. It's not so much a reaction against Brexit and certainly not a call to get Brexit done. Labour just doesn't have a compelling offer.
>
> Excellent result for the Lib Dems. They didn't just get a load of new councillors. Usefully they are piled up in particular areas. Expect to see a slew of MPs at the next election, which should also help replenish their depleted MP gene pool for future leadership.
>
> The Conservatives have lost their Costa Geriatrica strongholds like Bournemouth. Demographic changes as much as pissed off Remainers, I think.
>
> Further shift from Ulster unionist parties to Alliance and other non aligned parties are another baby step towards a United Ireland, I believe. Importantly these parties are anti Brexit and have Irish identity.
The Alliance are neither Nationalist nor Unionist just pro GFA and anti hard border in Ireland
The evidence, such as it is, is that supporters of non aligned parties will plump for a United Ireland depending on what happens with Brexit. So I guess it does mean that constitutional question is secondary in a literal sense.
> What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
>
> https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
>
> This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
>
> Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
>
> I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
> The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
>
> However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
>
> If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
But not against those who voted against Leaving?
Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
> > @isam said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > Sounds nonsense to me.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Why would Farage want to stand in a London marginal against Boris when there a dozens if not hundreds of more lucrative seats where his message would resonate more effectively? He will stand outside the M25 if anywhere - a solid leave area in the shires with a pro remain MP.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Of course if you were the Tories wanting to create a negative story about Farage it works wonders to circulate such rumours.......
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Boris like IDS and Villiers will probably lose anyway due to London's changing demographics - so the electorate will probably deliver this anyway.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Thurrock would be a walkover for him.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Thats what he thought before...
> >
> >
> >
> > Farage stood in Thanet previously.
> >
> >
> >
> > Though I don't think he wants to be in Parliament in any case.
> >
> > My mistake, though worth noting sweeping LD gains in Essex in the Locals.
> >
> > How did they do in Thurrock?
> >
> > One of the rare spots in Essex with no LD gains.
> >
> > No LD gains will do 👍🏻
> >
> > In fact, Chelmsford aside, there were very few Lib Dem gains in Essex
> >
> > https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-local-elections-results-full-2827470
>
> The LDs gained 1 district council seat in Epping Forest and 2 town council seats in Epping
The LDs also gained 4 seats in Brentwood, 2 in Southend and 1 in Tendring
> Has rcs gone all 'alternative' then? I'd historically had him as sound.
rcs has increasing found solace in sarcasm.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > >
> > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > >
> > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > >
> > > Well maybe you should
> >
> > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
>
> I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > > >
> > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > > >
> > > > Well maybe you should
> > >
> > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> >
> > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
>
> It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Democracy did not end the day after the referendum. Things have moved on, minds have been changed, new facts have come to light, not least the fact that leavers have no agreed plan for leaving. Democracy, like Brexit, is a process, not an event.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > > >
> > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > > >
> > > > Well maybe you should
> > >
> > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> >
> > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
>
> It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Who said it is in the past. I still support TM deal and want it passing. But if brexiteers stop it then I will do everything to prevent a no deal outcome.
Accusation by brexiters that opposition to their madcap no deal brexit is undemocratic is pure nonsense
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
> >
> > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
> >
> > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
>
> So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
> But not against those who voted against Leaving?
> Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
> They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
> Am a huge fan of SkyBet’s cashout. It’s allowed me to break-even on my Tottenham choke bets and put £40 on Arsenal to finish top 4 at 200-1. Why not?
>
> What an unbelievable day.
£40 at 200-1, wowsers!
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > > >
> > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > > >
> > > > Well maybe you should
> > >
> > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> >
> > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
>
> It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
Stuff and nonsense. If one side is saying: let the people have a vote about something, and the other says they must on no account be allowed to vote on that thing, it really doesn't take a Vernon Bogdanor to discern which party is on the side of democracy. I suspect that you don't actually understand your own argument: you are, or should be, claiming that the rule against a second vote is a *necessary limitation* of the principle of direct democracy. You might have a (very weak) point there, though you seem incapable of articulating it, and incapable of addressing the point that notable direct democracies like ancient Athens and modern Switzerland have been OK with re-votes; in the first case, simply because the electorate has changd its mind literally overnight, in the latter case because of manifest di8shonesty on the part of one campaign.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
>
> >
>
> > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
>
> >
>
> > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
>
>
>
> So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
>
> But not against those who voted against Leaving?
>
> Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
>
> They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
>
> Indeed the Brexit Party is not only the No Deal Brexit Party, but also the No Plan Brexit Party.
Competing with the Monster Raving Loony Party !!!!!!
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
>
> >
>
> > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
>
> >
>
> > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
>
> >
>
> > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
>
> >
>
> > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
>
>
>
> No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
>
> Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland.
Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead
https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
> > >
> > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for the Irish border he should have little to fear if Farage stands against him, Hillingdon voted Leave and the Tories comfortably held it last year in the London local elections and he would comfortably hold it if he beat Corbyn. If the Tories lost then it might be more of a challenge but if Boris has not won the general election to become PM I doubt he would be that bothered anyway.
> > >
> > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
> >
> > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
> > But not against those who voted against Leaving?
> > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
> > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
>
> The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated.
This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election...
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> >
> > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
> >
> > >
> >
> > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
> >
> >
> >
> > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
> >
> > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
>
> Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland.
>
>
> Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead
>
> https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
Plenty of people voted Alliance, Green, or Independent in local elections, who'd vote for Lady Hermon, or UUP, at Parliamentary level.
> > @FF43 said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> >
> > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
> >
> > >
> >
> > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
> >
> >
> >
> > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
> >
> > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
>
> Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland.
>
>
> Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead
>
> https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
> Plenty of people voted Alliance, Green, or Independent in local elections, who'd vote for Lady Hermon, or UUP, at Parliamentary level.
>
> In Fermanagh & Omagh, one councillor was elected under the "Cross-Community Labour Alternative" label.
Very left wing, neutral on the Border, pro-Brexit, and gained from Sinn Fein.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > > Has anyone considered that once the EU elections have taken place and UK MEP's are in Brussels the impetus to leave will dissipate and as we near 31st October another extension will be granted as it becomes even less likely we will ever leave.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And that is even if the conservatives have a brexiteer PM
> > > > >
> > > > > Nope. Desperate wishful thinking there.
> > > >
> > > > Well maybe you should
> > >
> > > Nope. I actually put some store by democracy - unlike you apparently.
> >
> > I have supported TM deal all along. The fact brexiteers have shot themselves in the foot is not my problem. You do not like the obvious but the country is turning against the brexiteers despite Farage's last stand
>
> It doesn't matter what you did in the past. If you are now advocating abrogating the decision of the referendum then you have placed yourself on the side of the anti-democrats.
You know this is nonsense. There is nothing democratic about forcing people to eat something they don’t want any more.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
> > > >
> > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for thered anyway.
> > > >
> > > > If we are still in the EU by the next general election and say May or Hunt lead the Tories then we may face a Tory wipeout at the hands of the Brexit Party with Farage quite possibly becoming PM so Boris or indeed any Tory MP noton the ultra ERG wing would be at risk as indeed would be Labour MPs from Leave seats in Labour's working class industrial heartlands to a Brexit Party surge
> > >
> > > So they are planning to stand against those who actually voted to Leave.
> > > But not against those who voted against Leaving?
> > > Makes as much sense as anything else, I suppose.
> > > They are standing as the Brexit Party, when they are, in reality, the No Deal Brexit Party.
> >
> > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
>
> I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated.
>
> This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election...
>
Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU for much longer as it will in the European elections. In that scenario 30% of the vote could give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under FPTP but 30% of the vote would not give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under AV or PR
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
> > > > >
> > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the next general election and we have left the EU the Brexit Party's appeal will start to fade and given Boris will likely by then be Tory leader and will commit to scrap any Customs Union commitment in the PD and try and replace the backstop with a technical solution for thered anyway.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
> >
> > I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated.
> >
> > This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this Brexit propaganda with diminishing returns as even the intellectually challenged with exceptions realise that Brexit is a destabilising process that will leave the UK poorer with less power on the international stage. The Brexit party is completely without foundation, it gets more media attention than it deserves. Its prospects are limited in a FPTP election...
> >
>
> Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU for much longer as it will in the European elections. In that scenario 30% of the vote could give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under FPTP but 30% of the vote would not give the Brexit Party a majority of seats under AV or PR
I am sorry I just don't agree with you. For instance the LD got 25% and 57 seats in 2010 and the Tories and Labour were 36 and 29. The LD were starting off with 62 seats from the election before (2005) and even led the polls at one stage in the closing days of that election. Your commentary puzzles me as it flies in the face of BRITISH FPTP elections when talking about the Brexit party which has zero seats and no party in each seat at the next election.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @FF43 said:
> > > > @FF43 said:
> > >
> > > > What you can say is that the position of Alliance and other non-aligned voters of much closer to nationalists on constitutional matters than to unionists. For example this poll here:
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2019/01/22/LT-NI-‘Brexit’-Tracker-Poll---January-2019
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > This wasn't the case before. The DUP made a huge mistake backing Brexit, if they want to maintain the constitutional status quo.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Even if that is the case, not only is that not what you said, your own link doesn't have any relevance what you are saying now (have you got the wrong one)?
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I said parties when I meant, and should have said, supporters of those parties. I corrected myself later. An annoying aspect of those Lucidtalk polls is that they change the questions each time they poll, so you have to refer to several to build up a picture. When you do so, they support the assertion that supporters of non aligned parties are closer to the nationalists on Irish identity and Brexit. On the border poll it's a little more complicated. Non Aligned supporters are mostly content to stay in the UK, providing Brexit doesn't happen. (Unionists to nearly a man and a woman want to stay under all circumstances).
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > No aligned supporters are even content to stay in the UK if Brexit does happen provided a hard border with the Republic is avoided
> > >
> > > Nationalists 5%; non aligned 29% (54% UI); unionists 92% in that scenario. Brexit has to be cancelled for non aligned to prefer staying in the UK. (Lucidtalk Dec 18 poll)
> >
> > Lucidtalk had 39% of Northern Irish voters certain to vote to stay in the UK if May's Brexit Deal passed, only 30% would vote for a United Ireland.
> >
> >
> > Only in the event of a No Deal hard border Brexit did the poll find support for a United Ireland ahead
> >
> > https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/12/07/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll---Winter-2018
>
> Of the whole population. Tied 48% to 48% when you include probables. The non aligned including probables were the ones I gave.
MORI polls and Life & Times gave rather bigger pro-UK leads, probably because they don't tie the Border question to questions on the EU.
> I find the site much harder to read with the arrows rather than insets.
Join the club.
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7573/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-nigel-farage-reportedly-looking-to-do-corbyn-s-dirty-work-and
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @The_Taxman said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > The Brexit Party will stand against every MP who either voted for EUref2, revoke or May's Deal ie virtually all MPs bar about 30 Tory ERG hardliners and maybe Hoey and Mann on the Labour side (plus the DUP of course).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > However if the Withdrawal Agreement has passed by the anyway.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > The Brexit Party are now largely yes but given at least a third of voters back No Deal Brexit now that gives them a large pool to fish in
> > >
> > > I think party voting blocs have much more established patterns in a General elections than your comment gives credence. 2017 was supposed to be an election in which people put aside their traditional and long held allegiances. Guess what people were more entrenched in their voting patterns than the newspapers and commentators had calculated.
> > >
> > > This Brexit party stuff is fuelled by the populist media Daily Mail, Daily Express, the Sun and the broadsheet Daily Telegraph. If anything they are serving up this TP election...
> > >
> >
> > Actually its prospects are enhanced under FPTP once it gets to 25%+ and starts to lead the other parties if we stay in the EU under AV or PR
>
> I am sorry I just don't agree with you. For instance the LD got 25% and 57 seats in 2010 and the Tories and Labour were 36 and 29. The LD were starting off with 62 seats from the election before (2005) and even led the polls at one stage in the closing days of that election. Your commentary puzzles me as it flies in the face of BRITISH FPTP elections when talking about the Brexit party which has zero seats and no party in each seat at the next election.
Put in the latest Yougov Euro elections poll ratings of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
The LDs did not come first in 2010 so obviously they would not have got most seats. The 23% the LDs got in 2010 is also 7% below the 30% the Brexit Party are now polling for the European elections.
In France En Marche went from 0 seats to a majority of seats in just one election. If Westminster betrays the Brexit vote and we are still in the EU by the next general election the Brexit Party will benefit from an SNP 2015 style surge from Leave voters while the Remainer vote is divided between the main parties
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone).
Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal.
Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer.
The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
> Evening all
>
> The significant event in the near future isn't or won't be the EU Parliamentary elections but the Peterborough by-election on June 6th (75 years on, there's a nice bit of resonance there for someone).
>
> Assuming they win the EU elections, BP will have all the momentum going into the by-election and to be honest they have to win. Failing in such a contest will embolden the other parties and put off potential defectors. It will look like a Farage ego trip but what if BP win? Most by-elections have a limited significance but a few resonate beyond the immediate and a BP win in Peterborough would send a strong signal.
>
> Would we start to see defections from the Conservative and Labour parties to BP? Hard to know but it would be a powerful recruitment tool going into the summer.
>
> The autumn brings us Party Conference season and the Conservatives would gather in Manchester in the shadow of the next set of Brexit negotiations heading to the 31/10 deadline. Can anyone guess what the mood might be like if May is hanging in there proposing another 6-12 month extension?
If the Brexit Party take Peterborough off Labour in the by election it will frighten the life out of Labour MPs in Leave seats and might be enough to get them to finally vote for the Withdrawal Agreement